NCEP Production Suite Review

Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Production Suite Review

Aviation Weather Center

Jason Levit and Amy Harless

December 7, 2011Kansas City, MO

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

Jason Levit and Amy Harless

December 7, 2011Kansas City, MO

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

AWC Mission and Vision StatementAWC Mission and Vision Statement

“The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.”

“To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”

“The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.”

“To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”

Weather is only a small partWeather is only a small partof the entire NextGen enterpriseof the entire NextGen enterprise

The “Game-Changer”…The “Game-Changer”…

• 8 August 2009• Express Jet Flight 2816

• IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300• Deplaned at 0600

• Passenger “Bill of Rights”• “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April

2010• Up to $27,500 per passenger

fine

• Bolstered need for extended

forecasting; no longer

press-to-fail mentality

• 8 August 2009• Express Jet Flight 2816

• IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300• Deplaned at 0600

• Passenger “Bill of Rights”• “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April

2010• Up to $27,500 per passenger

fine

• Bolstered need for extended

forecasting; no longer

press-to-fail mentality

Air Traffic ComplexityAir Traffic Complexity

Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com

Air Traffic ComplexityAir Traffic Complexity

Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com

Aviation Weather Center Operations

Aviation Weather Center Operations

CONUSCONUS•2 convective desks2 convective desks•3 area forecast desks3 area forecast desks

InternationalInternational•1 area forecast desk1 area forecast desk•2 global graphics desks2 global graphics desks

WebWeb•Aviation Digital Data Aviation Digital Data ServicesServices•testbed.aviationweathertestbed.aviationweather.gov.gov

Aviation Weather CenterWhat’s New?

Aviation Weather CenterWhat’s New?

Testbed activities: Summer Experiments

• Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management”

Four new positions:

• Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011

• NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011

• GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012

Testbed activities: Summer Experiments

• Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management”

Four new positions:

• Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011

• NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011

• GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012

Aviation Weather Center2011 Evaluations

Aviation Weather Center2011 Evaluations

Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011)

GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011)

NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011)

RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present)

General perception:

• Increase in skill with all upgrades

• Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations

Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011)

GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011)

NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011)

RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present)

General perception:

• Increase in skill with all upgrades

• Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations

Data Acquired (GEMPAK)Data Acquired (GEMPAK)

• GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings

• NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings

• WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48

• NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48

• RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings

• SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87

• SFCOA, hrly (via SPC)

• UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48

• GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings

• NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings

• WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48

• NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48

• RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings

• SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87

• SFCOA, hrly (via SPC)

• UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48

Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP ApplicationsAviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications

1 Hour Calibrated SREF CCFP Conditions

FCST: F012 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC

Forecaster Issued CCFP

FCST: F006 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC

Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications

Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications

All Flights > 25 kft Impact of Thunderstorms: > 25 kft

Combine composite aircraft position data with SREF probabilistic weather information

Aviation Weather Testbed

Aviation Weather Testbed

Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets

• High Resolution Guidance• 2011 Summer Experiment

• Operational Bridging

• Traffic Impact

• Convective Initiation

• Ensembles• Calibration

• Traffic Impact

• ECFP Enhancement

Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets

• High Resolution Guidance• 2011 Summer Experiment

• Operational Bridging

• Traffic Impact

• Convective Initiation

• Ensembles• Calibration

• Traffic Impact

• ECFP Enhancement

Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer

Experiment

Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer

Experiment

2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment

2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment

15

Data Set Source Status Comments12-member 4km WRF-

ARW EnsembleDoD/AFWA Active 18Z start, 36-hour

forecast, data starts at 00Z

Derivied Traffic Impact Potential

NCAR Active Derivied from AFWA Ensemble

3km HRRR GSD Active Hourly

Short-Range Ensemble EMC Active Every six hours

Convective NearCast - Satellite

GOES-R/CIMSS Active Fifteen minute updates

Convective Initiation - Satellite

GOES-R/CIMMS Active Fifteen minute updates

Convective Probability MDL Active NextGen Capability Evaluation

CoSPA MIT/LL Active CCFP first-guess polygons

NAEFS EMC Active - AFWA Every six hours

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer Experiment

16

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer Experiment

High Resolution Rapid Refresh

• Comp. Reflectivity

• Top 25 Jet Routes

High Resolution Rapid Refresh

• Comp. Reflectivity

• Top 25 Jet Routes

AFWA EnsembleAFWA Ensemble

Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Routes Routes

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment

•Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North-South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft

•Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble

•Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North-South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft

•Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble

NCAR Airspace Capacity Reduction

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer ExperimentLAMP Convective

Probability

Probability of convection definedas the occurrenceof reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZand/or one or more cloud-to-groundlightning strike

within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.

LAMP Convective Probability

Probability of convection definedas the occurrenceof reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZand/or one or more cloud-to-groundlightning strike

within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed

2011 Summer ExperimentGOES-R Nearcast

Product

• Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model

• Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data

• 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals

• RUC background model

• Hourly timestamps

• Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy

GOES-R Nearcast Product

• Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model

• Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data

• 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals

• RUC background model

• Hourly timestamps

• Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment

Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment• Aviation Weather Impact Graphics• Aviation Weather Impact Graphics

Highlight important weather features for air traffic management for 18z and 00z for Golden Triangle

Highlight areas of 30% and 60% probability of exceeding comp. reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and echo tops ≥ 37 kft from 18Z to 00Z for the Golden Triangle

Aviation Weather TestbedDecision Support: Traffic Flow Management

Aviation Weather TestbedDecision Support: Traffic Flow Management

• Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management• Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including

convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash

• “3-hour” Tarmac Rule• Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007

performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays

• Support Operational Bridging Activities• Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical

planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools

• Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools

• Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management• Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including

convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash

• “3-hour” Tarmac Rule• Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007

performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays

• Support Operational Bridging Activities• Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical

planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools

• Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools

Operational Bridging Operational Bridging

Operational BridgingOperational Bridging

• Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration

• Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts

• Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts

• Single Authoritative Source

• Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames

• Aviation application of Decision Support Services

• Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration

• Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts

• Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts

• Single Authoritative Source

• Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames

• Aviation application of Decision Support Services

Winter Weather DashboardWinter Weather Dashboard

Requests/Suggestions/Wish ListRequests/Suggestions/Wish List

• Increased demand for high-resolution models

• Microphysics upgrades• CI products (application of GOES-R derived

products)• Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity

• Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables• Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection• History variables, interrogate model at each time-step

• HRRR-E• Details provided for SREF upgrade• Frequent HRRR outages

• Increased demand for high-resolution models

• Microphysics upgrades• CI products (application of GOES-R derived

products)• Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity

• Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables• Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection• History variables, interrogate model at each time-step

• HRRR-E• Details provided for SREF upgrade• Frequent HRRR outages

High Resolution Model NeedsHigh Resolution Model Needs

• Convective porosity, morphology, mode

• Convective initiation

• Hourly max variables, max change

• Reforecasts for calibration

• Ensembles: post processed statistics

• Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment

• Increased bandwidth

• Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2

• Convective porosity, morphology, mode

• Convective initiation

• Hourly max variables, max change

• Reforecasts for calibration

• Ensembles: post processed statistics

• Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment

• Increased bandwidth

• Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2

Thank you!Thank you!

Great team effort:

• Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC)

• Response to requests

• 24x7 support of dataflow

• Model upgrades

Great team effort:

• Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC)

• Response to requests

• 24x7 support of dataflow

• Model upgrades