NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts

NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational

Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

University of Maryland

November 2, 2006

2

Overview

• Define NCEP• “Seamless Suite” of forecast products: climate/weather linkage• Recent Advances

– Seasonal to Interannual/Climate Forecast System– Ocean Prediction/HYCOM– “Medium range” Days 4-7/North American Ensemble Forecast System– Days1-3: Winter Weather Desk/Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System– Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• Performance Metrics• Future

– Community Models– Multi-model Ensembles

• New building– NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Maryland)

3

Define NCEP

4

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

FeedbackFeedback

DistributeDistribute

LocalOfficesLocal

OfficesCentral

GuidanceCentral

GuidanceProcessProcess

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …

NCEP

5

The Environmental Forecast Process

Observations

Analysis

Model Forecast

Post-processed Model Data

Forecaster

User (public, industry…)

NumericalForecastSystem

Data Assimilation

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Space Environment CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Total FTE: 430161 Contractors/47 Visitors

Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Storm Prediction Center

7

• Civil Service Positions– 430 civil servant positions

– Average 32 hires/year at all levels

– 2-4 entry-level hires/year

• Contract Positions– Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years)

– Currently have 161 contractors

– Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year

• Student Programs– Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP)

http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm)

– 16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http://epp.noaa.gov/ , http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )

NCEP Employment Summary

http://epp.noaa.gov/



http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html

http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html

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What Does NCEP Do?

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational and National Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network OperationsTransition Test Beds Being Developed throughout NCEP

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual

• El Nino – La Nina Forecast

• Weather Forecasts to Day 7

• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather

• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)

• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

9

Service – Science Linkagewith the Outside Community

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed*

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SEC Solar Test Bed

• AWC FAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP*

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

* Under development

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Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Climate-Weather Linkage

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

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TPCOPCHPC

SECAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 3

• •

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day Forecast

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Climate/WeatherLinkage


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North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

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Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Model

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS

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GFS

CFS

GFDL

SREF

NAM – WRFNMM

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

GlobalData

Assimilation

WRF-NMMWRF-ARWETARSM

L D A S

Sev Wx

WRF-NMMWRF-ARW

NAEFS

NDAS

Rapid Update Cycle

Ensemble Hurricane

Global

Climate Regional

MOM3

HYCOMOcean

14

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

Primary Weather Primary Weather $13.9 M$13.9 M

Primary Climate Primary Climate $5.3 M$5.3 M

Backup Backup $7.2 M$7.2 M

Total: Total: $26.4 M$26.4 M

•Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3x upgrade scheduled for 2006 4th Q delivery

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Recent Advances

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Short-Range Ensemble Forecast HYCOM Ocean Model

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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)

1. Atmospheric component• Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)

• T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical

• Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)

cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)

gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)

cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

2. Oceanic component• GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)

• 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers

• Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)

• Free surface3. Coupled model

• Once-a-day coupling

• Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

4. Calibrated on past 38 years

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Climate Forecast System Availability

7 day average centered on March 8

• Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members.

• 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005)– Calibration– Skill estimates– Analog and statistical forecasts

• The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst

• The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/

• Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf

19

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Climate Test Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA Climate

ForecastOperations

NOAA Climate

ForecastOperations

Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BEDTHE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

Mission:Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

Priorities:• Improve Climate Forecast System

• Assess Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System

• Fully Utilize Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

• Develop Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/

22

Current Projects By Programmatic Theme:

1)1) NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System ImprovementsNOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements

Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL) Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI’s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP) Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA) Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD) NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP)

The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP)

2)2) Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction SystemMulti-Model Ensemble Prediction System

Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI’s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP)Explore MME with international operational centers

3)3) Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemClimate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)

4)4) Climate Forecast Products for Decision SupportClimate Forecast Products for Decision Support

Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP) A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)

5) Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.

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Ocean Prediction

• NCEP to provide “backbone” support for operational delivery of ocean model forecasts – In response to NOAA Science Advisory Board Report

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Satellite(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)

In situ(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)

OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION

RT-OFS-GODAENOPPEMC

CFS-GODASNCO/ODA

EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)

OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS

Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

Data Cutoff

CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff

Shared history, coding, and data

processing

MOM-3 MOM-4 HOME HYCOM HOME

NASA-NOAA-DODJCSDA

AMSR, GOES,AIRS, JASON, WindSat,

MODISAdvanced

ODA Techniques

Observations

CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

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Real-Time Ocean Prediction with HYCOM• Goal: to develop and implement operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins

• NCEP Partners with

• University of Miami/RSMAS

• NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC

• NOAA PMEL, AOML

• Los Alamos National Laboratory

• Others (international, commercial)

• Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – HYCOM)

•Implemented December 2005

Chesapeake Bay

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RT-OFSRT-OFSProductsProducts

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

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avi

ga

tion

& N

avi

ga

tion

Flo

od

Miti

ga

tion

F

loo

d M

itig

atio

n

& N

avi

ga

tion

& N

avi

ga

tion

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

yE

ne

rgy

En

erg

yE

ne

rgy

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Benefits

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

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He

alth

He

alth

He

alth

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alth


30


• Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA– Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days– ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days

• Generates products for– Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,

media, private sector, …– Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries– End users: forecasts for public distribution

in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

• Future activities– Adding products (probabilistic in nature)– Incorporating ensemble data from

other centers (e.g., FNMOC)– Unified evaluation/verification procedures

International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

After bias correction

Raw ensemble

Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days

31

NAEFS Products

• NAEFS basic product list– 11 functionalities

• Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc.

– 50 variables• U,v,t,z,CAPE,

precip type, etc.– 7 domains

• Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa• Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via

priority order)– Graphics

• Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers– Grids

• NAWIPS• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod• NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod

32

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

33


MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears




Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime


WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

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Sp

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S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

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tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Sta

te/L

oca

l S

tate

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cal

Pla

nn

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Pla

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Sta

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oca

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En

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34

Short Range Ensemble Forecast

21 members twice per day 87 hrs from 9 and 21Z Resolution 32km/60 levels Mean and spread charts

available for forecaster use Developing products on probability of snow and ice

accumulation http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

0.01” snow

35

SREF Upgrades

FY2006• Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05)

• Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (June, 2006)

• Implement Grid Based Bias Correction

• Improve Probabilistic verification

• Develop spread information

• Add WRF BUFR Files

• Implement ensemble mean BUFR files

36

850T (8/25/05-9/24/05)

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

9 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63

Forecast Hours

rmse (

C)

15-mem

21-mem

12km NAM

Normalized Outlier of 850T (8/25/05-9/24/05)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

9 15 21 27 33 39 45 51 57 63

Forecast Hours

chan

ce t

ruth

to

be

ou

t o

f en

sem

ble

ran

ge

(%)

15-mem

21-mem

Chance that truth is outside ensemble range

RMS Error

21 member

15 member

SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members

37

New Impact Graphics from SREF

• Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs • Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8

mile in winter precip• Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1, 2, or

3" per hr • Probability road sensor will detect winter precip

(relative to normal) “snow on road”• Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met • Probability Freezing Rain .01" or more will accumulate

on any surface • Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria will be

met (under construction)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

38

Time line: Sep 15 – April 1 Participants

NCEP HPC Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology)

WFOs All CONUS WFOs Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings

Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml 24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12”

snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) 72h Low tracks graphic and discussion

NWS Winter Weather Desk

39

40

12Z, Feb 10, 2006 12Z, Feb 11, 2006

12Z, Feb 12, 2006 12Z, Feb 13, 2006

Daily Weather Map Web Site - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml

41

42

≥ 4 inches

≥ 8 inches

≥ 12 inchesDay 2 Snow Accum ProbabilityValid 00Z Feb 12 - 00Z Feb 13

43

44

45

Regional Stats

ER WWE1

01-02’

WWE2

02-03’

WWE3

03-04’

WWD*

04-05’

WWD*

05-06’

# WFO 8 23 23 ALL ALL

POD .89 .90 .92 .92 .91

FAR .33 .30 .32 .30 .35

CSI .62 .65 M .66 .61

LT Warn 13 15 18 21 19

CR WWE1

01-02’

WWE2

02-03’

WWE3

03-04’

WWD

04-05’

WWD

05-06’

# WFO NA 8 33 ALL ALL

POD NA .90 .88 .92 .91

FAR NA .40 .45 .32 .38

CSI NA .57 .51 .65 .53

LT Warn NA 13 13 17 17

WR WWE1

01-02’

WWE2

02-03’

WWE3

03-04’

WWD

04-05’

WWD

05-06’

# WFO NA NA 10 ALL ALL

POD NA NA .88 .88 .86

FAR NA NA .27 .30 .36

CSI NA NA .67 .64 .58

LT Warn NA NA 14 16 16

SR WWE1

01-02’

WWE2

02-03’

WWE3

03-04’

WWD

04-05’

WWD*

05-06’

# WFO NA NA 11 ALL ALL

POD NA NA .92 .90 .85

FAR NA NA .38 .39 .48

CSI NA NA .59 .57 .48

LT Warn NA NA 9 9 11

* Oct - Mar

46Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten YearsFive Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten YearsFive Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten YearsFive Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years

Count

(Mill

ions)

Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count

20001990 2010 2010-10%of obs

2002 100 M obs

2003-4 125 M obs

Level 2 radar data 2 B

2005 210 M obs

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

47

JCSDA Mission and Vision

• Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models

• Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations

• Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch

48

JCSDA Major Accomplishments• Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA • Community radiative transfer model V2 released• Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system• Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers• Operational Implementations Include:• Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data

usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts• MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts• AIRS radiances – improved forecasts• New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST• Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS),

DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R • Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP

SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

49

Figure 3(b). 500hPa Z Anomaly Correlations for the GFS with (Ops.+AIRS) and without (Ops.) AIRS data, Northern hemisphere, January 2004

N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20

1 Jan - 27 Jan '04

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [days]

An

om

aly

Co

rrel

atio

n

Ops

Ops+AIRS

50

Impact of AIRS increased spatial data density/improved QC(Snow, SSI/eo/April 2005/nw)

N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20

10 Aug - 20 Sep '04

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5

Forecast [days]

An

om

aly

Co

rrel

atio

n Cntl AIRS

SpEn AIRS

51

Performance Metrics-- Models --

52

GFS Upgrade

GFS Upgrade

53

54

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JULN

um

be

r o

f H

its

(M

illi

on

s)

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

Comms Upgrade

2006

55

Performance Metrics-- Forecasters --

56

Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.3519

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Th

reat

Sco

re

Human(HPC)

ETA

Linear(Human(HPC))Linear (ETA)

HPC Forecasters Add Value

Models provide basis for improvement Correlations

Of HPC with:

Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85

(DOC GPRA goal)

57

58

Day 4 Gridded Temperature Forecast

Max Temp Min Temp

Valid November 6, 2006

59

NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

60

In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill

Day 7

Day 5

Day 3

62

Future

• Community Models• Multi-Model Ensembles

63

Future

• Community models– Weather Research Forecast model

• Developmental Test Center (Boulder)– Outreach to academic community– Assessment of new model components

• Major implementation – replaced Eta in June 06

CMI

NCARARW

NCEPNMM

Explicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

64

GFS

CFS

WRF

SREF

NAM - WRF

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Forecast

GGSI

WRF-NMMWRF-ARWETARSM

L D A S

Sev Wx

WRF-NMMWRF-ARW

NAEFS

RGSI

Rapid Refresh WRF

EnsembleHurricane

Global

Climate Regional

MOM3

HYCOMOcean

Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008)

Chem WRFAir Quality

65

Multi-Model Ensembles Issue

• In 5-10 years will all forecasts be based on multi-model ensemble approach?• Climate Forecast System

• North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

• Oceans

• Space Weather

• Answer(s) will have enormous implications for NCEP operational computer allocations

66

Multi-Model Ensembles

• Enormous implications for NCEP links to the research community

• How do we link all the players?

• Operational centers

• NCAR/NASA/DOE/Universities

• How do we link data assimilation infrastructure (all data types)?

• Ensemble-based Kalman Filter

• 3D or 4D Var

• How do we factor into transition process?

• Research to Operations AND Operations to Research

• Many issues will influence NCEP’s participation in THORPEX (Zoltan Toth, focal point)

67

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 850+ Federal employees, contractors, and

visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Begin move to new facility September ’07; complete by Feb ’08

• Space for 40 visitors• Groundbreaking occurred

for March 13, 2006

68

NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH

69

Summary

• NCEP spanning “Sun to the Sea”; many new programmatic areas (oceans, air quality, space weather…)

• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist• NCEP is uniquely positioned to handle transition issues

from research to operations• Actively engaged with the research community

– Test beds– Experiments (NAME, THORPEX)– Other programs (USWRP, CLIVAR, …)

• Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research community

70

Appendix

71

EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBWRF DTC

JHT

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies&

International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

72

R&D

NCEP

Operations

User Community

Transition from

researchto

operations/applications

1. Large “volume” of R&D,funded through AOs,Agency Labs…

2 Smaller set of R&Dproducts suitable foroperations.

3. Systematic transition steps.

4. New products can servediverse and expandinguser community.

5. Delivery to diverse USERcommunity

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

1

2

3

4

NCEPis uniquelypositioned

to provide an operational

infrastructure for the

transition process

5

73

CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rrela

tio

n

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/Reanl

SH CDAS/Reanl

74

75

Without skill mask

CFS SeasonalPrecip Forecast

(mm/month)

76

With skill mask

• If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown

CFS SeasonalPrecip Forecast

(mm/month)

77

Without skill mask

CFS SeasonalTemp Forecast

(deg K)

78

With skill mask

• If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown

CFS SeasonalTemp Forecast

(deg K)

79

GSI/GFS Impact studies: Preliminary Results (CHAMP)2-month cycling at T62L64

• There are some encouraging preliminary results. Before being able to assimilate the RO data in operations we need to:

– Understand the differences between the assimilation of N and BA. Why in some cases the assimilation of N results in a larger improvement than the assimilation of BA and visa versa?

– Understand the strengths and weaknesses of the GPS RO data and the model in weather analyses and forecasts. Why does the assimilation of N or BA degrade the forecasts in some cases?

• The sensitivity of the impact of GPS RO to model resolution, QC parameters and error characterization is under current study.

• The results of these experiments will accelerate the tuning for the assimilation of COSMIC data.

Cucurull et al. 2006, submitted to MWR

ControlRefractivity

Bending Angle

80

• The figures show the day-2 anomaly correlation scores for temperature at 300mb for the NH, Tropics and SH. Results for the control (COSM_CTL) and bending angle (COSM_BND) are indicated.

• Early results on the assimilation of COSMIC bending angles at NCEP show a good performance of the DA system.

• The same experiments could have assimilated observations of refractivity instead of bending angle.

• Results are encouraging and more data needs to be assimilated for further tuning and evaluation of the impact of the GPS RO in weather analyses and forecasts.

Early Results: COSMIC

81

S. Hemisphere 500 hPa AC Z 1 Jan - 15 Feb '04

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast [day]

An

om

aly

Co

rrel

atio

n

Control Windsat

Figure 2. The 500HPa Geopotential Anomaly Correlations versus forecast period for GFS forecasts using the operational data base without QuikSCAT data (Control) and using the operational database without QuikSCAT data but with WindSat data (WindSat) over the Southern Hemisphere.

82

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2003

2003-2005

23 May 2006

Documents

NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts