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May 13, 2021
Travis English
Training & Outreach
Specialist
Wildfire Webinar Series
Detection
Antitrust Policy
▪ All WECC meetings are conducted in accordance with the WECC
Antitrust Policy and the NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines
▪ All participants must comply with the policy and guidelines
▪ This meeting is public—confidential or proprietary information
should not be discussed in open session
3
Antitrust Policy
▪ This webinar is being recorded and will be posted publicly
▪ By participating, you give your consent for your name, voice,
image and likeness to be included in that recording
▪ WECC strives to ensure the information presented today is
accurate and reflects the views of WECC
▪ However, all interpretations and positions are subject to change
▪ If you have any questions, please contact WECC’s legal counsel
4
May 13, 2021
Steve Ashbaker
Reliability Initiative Director
Wildfire Webinar Series
Detection
Agenda
▪ Welcome and WECC Antitrust Policy Review
▪ Wildfire Detection Introduction by San Diego Gas and Electric
▪ Situational Awareness and Information Sharing
▪ Modeling
▪ WECC Situation Awareness, Wildfire Activities, and Analysis
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May 13, 2021
Brian D’Agostino
Director of Fire Science and Climate Adaptation
San Diego Gas & Electric
Wildfire Webinar Series
San Diego Gas & Electric’s
Overall Detection Program
2021 WECC Wildfire Webinar SeriesWildfire Detection & Situational AwarenessSDG&E – Brian D’Agostino, Director of Fire Science & Climate Adaptation May 13, 2021
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A Look Back at Summer 2020 – Managing Multiple Challenges
▪ COVID-19
▪ Virtual EOC operation
▪ Load Curtailment & Resource Limitations
▪ Aug. 14-15 – Load shedding and rotating outages
▪ Aug. 14-21 – Restricted maintenance operations
▪ Sept. 5-8 – Restricted maintenance operations
▪ Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS)
▪ Sept. 5-9
▪ Sept. 25-29
▪ Oct. 26-27
▪ Valley Fire
▪ Sept. 5-24 – More than 17,000 acres burned California experienced the hottest July–September on record
An unprecedented August and September challenged resiliency and operations
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▪ 5 of the 6 largest fires in CA history were burning at the same time this summer
▪ A record 4+ million acres have burned in CA in 2020 (4,194,148 acres)
▪ Climate change impacts are exacerbating our wildfire behavior in San Diego beyond just 2020, driving longer and less predictable wildfire seasons.
• Drought and unseasonably strong Santa Ana drove May 2014 Fires
• Absence of winter rainfall fueled the Lilac Fire in December 2017
• Extreme heat event set all-time records accompanied by July 2018 Fires (West Fire)
• Extreme heat drove the Valley Fire around Labor Day 2020
Historic California Wildfire Season
At 1 million acres, the August Complex Fire burned more acreage that all CA fires from 1932-1999 combined!!
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Applying AI to over a billion weather
observations from 220 weather stations to
inform fire mitigation and PSPS decisions
with extreme precision
WIND FORECASTING
MODEL
FIRE BEHAVIOR
MODELING
Leveraging AI to create nightly
simulations of over 10 million virtual
wildfires across our service territory
to better understand fire behavior
Applying AI to over 20 years of
historical weather-related outage data
to predict the number of outages in
advance of winter storms
OUTAGE
PREDICTION
Advanced Analytics: Driving Resilient Operations
Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with weather devices and data to create a more resilient electric grid…
REAL-TIME IMAGE
ANALYSIS
Using edge computing devices with
built-in AI on mountaintop cameras to
recognize a wildfire ignition event in
real time
Climate
Vulnerability
Assessment
Additional weather stations and
climate vulnerability assessments
helping better anticipate issues on the
electric system before they occur
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Date Thu
11/26
Fri
11/27
Sat
11/28
Sun
11/29
Mon
11/30
Tue
12/1
Wed
12/2
Thu
12/3
Fri
12/4
Sat
12/5
Sun
12/6
Mon
12/7
Tue
12/8
Wed
12/9
No RFWs 12/10 through
12/22
Wed
12/23
Thu
12/24
RFW
FPI
In 2020, there were 4 late-season RFW/PSPS events out of a total of 11 RFW/PSPS events for the season
Red Flag Warning
11/26-11/28
▪ Top 20 Average Gusts: 48 mph
▪ Wind Speed Records: 0
▪ Peak Gust: 56 mph
▪ Stations Reaching 95%: 75
▪ Station Reaching 99%: 8
▪ PSPS Customers Notified: 2,739
▪ PSPS Customers affected: 0
▪ CRCs Opened: 0
Red Flag Warning
High Wind Warning
12/2-12/4
▪ Top 20 Average Gusts: 71 mph
▪ Wind Speed Records: 43
▪ Peak Gust: 94 mph
▪ Stations Reaching 95%: 170
▪ Station Reaching 99%: 126
▪ PSPS Customers Notified: 95,000
▪ PSPS Customers affected: 73,000
▪ CRCs Opened: 10 (2,667 cars)
Red Flag Warning
High Wind Warning
12/7-12/8
▪ Top 20 Average Gusts: 59 mph
▪ Wind Speed Records: 2
▪ Peak Gust: 82 mph
▪ Stations Reaching 95%: 145
▪ Station Reaching 99%: 67
▪ PSPS Customers Notified: 50,483
▪ PSPS Customers affected: 15,300
▪ CRCs Opened: 6 (415 cars)
Red Flag Warning
12/23-12/24
▪ Top 20 Average Gusts: 57 mph
▪ Wind Speed Records: 2
▪ Peak Gust: 71 mph
▪ Stations Reaching 95%: 152
▪ Station Reaching 99%: 66
▪ PSPS Customers Notified: 30,394
▪ PSPS Customers affected: 6,797
▪ CRCs Opened: 4 (59 cars)
Late Season RFWs & PSPS
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SDG&E Weather Network
SDG&E is updating the weather network to now monitor fuel moisture content
▪ NDVI cameras are being added to monitor chlorophyll in the vegetation
SDG&E Weather Station Network ▪ “Fuel Sticks” are being added to select weather stations to measure 10-hour fuel moisture
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AlertSDG&E Camera Network
SDG&E is expanding and hardening mountaintop camera capabilities
▪ The number of AlertSDG&E Cameras has expanded to 30 and CalFIRE has added to the network
▪ New Partnership with Artificial Intelligence industry expert to identify smoke patterns and push notifications to key stakeholders
Source: Alchera Inc
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SDG&E Weather Forecasting system
Leveraging over a decade of weather data, AI-based forecasting models are running for over 190 weather stations
▪ AI is improving the ability to anticipate and prepare for PSPS through more precise weather forecasting
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SDG&E Satellite Detection
SDG&E is expanding remote sensing from satellites to enhance situational awareness
▪ Satellites detect hot spots and automatically link with cameras in the area to provide alerts
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SDG&E’s Academic Partnerships
SDG&E is expanding partnerships with academic leaders to advance and integrate science into operational practices
▪ Developing real-time coastal flood models and analyzing seasonal precipitation patterns
▪ Enhancing atmospheric models to incorporate fire behavior into overall weather forecasts
▪ Establishing a data sharing platform to advance wildfire research
Thank you… Questions?
May 13, 2021
Wildfire Webinar Series
Situational Awareness & Information
Sharing
Marco Aceituno
Senior Manager of Public Safety Public Shut-off Operations
Southern California Edison
Paul Roller
Senior Manager of Weather Services
Southern California Edison
Our Commitment to CaliforniaKeeping our communities safe from wildfires
Paul Roller, Senior Manager, Weather Services, Business Resiliency
Marco Aceituno, Senior Manager, PSPS Operations
WECC Wildfire Webinar, 5/13/21
Situational Awareness and Information Sharing
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BOLSTERING SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CAPABILITIES
1,050+ weather
stations that
provide wind
speed, humidity
and temperature
data. Adding new
stations to
increase accuracy
of PSPS
operations
166 cameras
thoroughly
covering high fire
risk areas to
monitor wildfire
conditions
Wildfire Cameras
Historical Dataset
Next-Generation Weather Modeling
System
Weather Stations
Fuel Sampling
15 fuel sampling
sites, sampled
every 2 weeks.
Useful for
determining fuels
receptivity to fire.
Will be used to
train fuel moisture
model to enhance
operations
Installing
additional
hardware to
support higher
resolution output
and machine
learning models
Leverage 40-year
historical
dataset for
analysis and to
compare current
events with history
Data as of 3/31/21
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WILDFIRE HD CAMERAS
alertwildfire.org
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WEATHER STATIONS
sce.com/weatherstationsmesowest.utah.edu
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EMERGENCY OPERATIONS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CENTER
Situational Awareness Center’s Mission:
In the Situation Awareness Center, meteorologists and
GIS specialists collaborate to provide comprehensive
situational awareness for potential and realized
hazards/threats and assess the vulnerability and impacts
to infrastructure and customers in blue sky conditions as
well as conditions leading up to, during and after
emergencies.
Products and Monitoring:
• Detailed weather alerts and briefings
• Real-time monitoring and alerting of impactful weather
• Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) circuit monitoring
and period of concern lists
• Ad-hoc consultation and on-the-spot weather
forecasts
• Threat Level Matrix 7-Day Weather Outlook
WEATHER FORECASTING CAPABILITIES
. .
People and technology resources - 2020 models and tools
• Expert analysis by six staff meteorologists improved PSPS
forecast accuracy by 20%
• More than 1,050 SCE weather stations report conditions every
10 minutes
• Weather modeling vendor uses SCE’s supercomputers to run
high-resolution models twice daily to forecast weather and wind
conditions for all 1,300+ circuits in SCE’s high fire risk areas
New tools to provide additional granularity in 2021
• Additional 375 weather stations in 2021
• New weather visualization tool to easily compare multiple
models
• Next-generation weather modeling system
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NEXT-GENERATION WEATHER MODELING
. .
Two additional super computers will help us to double our model output resolution, produce more ensemble forecasts and incorporate machine-learning technology
Currently SCE is
producing a 5-day
forecast at 2 km
resolution twice daily
SCE is also producing a
3 ½-day ensemble
(seven members)
forecast at 2 km
resolution twice daily
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INFORMATION SHARING & OPERATIONAL COLLABORATION
Situational awareness promotes safety and allows for
advance planning & preparedness
• Real-time information from trained personnel positioned locally in high fire risk areas
• Information from weather stations and high-resolution weather models
• Input from local and state fire authorities and Emergency Management personnel
• Our weather network information
• Vegetation moisture sampling
• Supercomputing technology forecasts
• Fire danger indexes
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DE-ENERGIZATION HIGH-LEVEL DECISION-MAKING STEPS
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PRE-PLANNING EVENT PLANNING IMT ACTIVATION DURING PERIOD OF
CONCERNRE-ENERGIZATION
➢ Establish circuit-
specific Fire
Potential Index
(FPI) threshold for
activation
➢ Establish
windspeed
threshold for
activation
➢Activate
Incident
Management
Team (IMT)
➢ Publish
monitored
circuit list
➢ Identify period
of concern
➢Develop prioritization
methodology for de-
energization thresholds
for each circuit in scope
➢ Perform pre-patrols
➢ Set up required
resources needed for
field observations
➢Develop event-specific
rules of engagement
➢ Perform field
operations
➢ Review circuit
switching plans
➢Obtain feedback
from Emergency
Management
agencies
➢Monitor real-time
wind speeds via
weather stations
➢Monitor wind
speed abatement
➢ Perform restoration
patrols
Prior to Wildfire Season 4-5 Days Prior 1-3 Days Prior Period of Concern Following Period of Concern
OPERATIONAL COLLABORATION – TECHNOLOGY AND TOOLS
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PSPS Dashboard provides clear
visibility to the status of weather,
circuits, hazards and customer impacts
Task Force Viewer contains all circuit health
intelligence (including risk) and customer
information to assist with making decision
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EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAM STRUCTURE
Crisis
Management
CouncilPolicy and Delegation of Authority
CEOs, CFO, General
Counsel, President
and SVPs
Incident Command ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incident
Support Team
Electrical
Services
IMT
Generation
IMTIT IMT
Security
Facilities
IMT
Leads
Response
Company Operating Units/Specialized Teams
Incident
Commander
(Director or VP)IMT Structure
Operations
Section
Chief
Logistics
Section
Chief
Planning
Section
Chief
Finance &
Admin
Section
Chief
Incident
Commander
Public Information Officer
Liaison Officer
Security Officer Dedicated
PSPS
IMT
May 13, 2021
Brian D’AgostinoDirector of Fire Science and
Climate Adaptation
San Diego Gas & Electric
Wildfire Webinar Series
Modeling
May 13, 2021
Matt Pender
Wildfire Work Delivery Director
Pacific Gas & Electric
Wildfire Webinar Series
Modeling
May 13, 2021
Tim Reynolds
Manager, Event Analysis and
Situation Awareness
WECC Situation Awareness
Wildfire Activities and
Analysis
Overview
▪ Why WECC monitors wildfires
▪ Daily activities
▪ How entities can report information
▪ Upcoming work
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Why
▪ WECC SA team monitors, gathers, and assesses situation
awareness information that affects reliability
• Informs WECC management and NERC BPSA about significant threats to
the BES that include wildfires
▪ Extreme natural events, including wildfires, are identified in the
2020 WECC Reliability Risk Priorities
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Daily Activities
▪ Review NOAA fire threats
for current and next day
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Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
Daily Activities
▪ Monitor PSPS impacts
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42
WECC Wildfire Dashboard for At-Risk Transmission Lines
Source: Current Wildfires Dashboard (arcgis.com)
Let Us Know
▪ Entities that have a transmission a line or generation facility
threatened by a wildfire
▪ Contact [email protected]
▪ Include:
• Name of the fire
• BES elements affected
• Links to any information about the fire
• Update when there is no longer a threat
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Upcoming Work
▪ Work with industry to better support each other
▪ Study historical wildfire information
44
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Wildfire—Total Count
2018 2019 2020
0500,000
1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,000
Wildfire—Total Acres
2018 2019 2020
Fire Awareness Links
▪ https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
▪ https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/
▪ https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/#/F/F/36.6543/-90.7801/4
▪ https://disasterresponse.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2ff1677111ae4018ac705fcce7c3312f
▪ https://iafc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8fa9053053f54d4d9dfb2f1c61056432?edit=tru
▪ https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/
▪ https://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/f0ac328d88c74d07aa2ee385abe2a41b
▪ https://wildfire.alberta.ca/wildfire-status/status-map.aspx
▪ https://sdgeweather.com/
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