Introduction Pertemuan 1

Matakuliah : K0442-Metode KuantitatifTahun : 2009

Material Outline

• Problem Solving and Decision Making• Quantitative Analysis and Decision

making• Quantitative Analysis• Model of Cost Revenue, and Profit

Problem Solving and Decision Making

The Problem Solving Process:

1.Identify and define the problem2.Determine the set of alternative solutions3.Determine the criterion4.Evaluate the alternatives5.Choose an alternative6.Implement the selected alternative7.Evaluate the results to determine weather a satisfactory solution has been obtained

Problems

• Single criterion decisions problems• Multi criterion problems

Example:Data for the Job Evaluation Decision-Making Problem

Alternative StartingSalary

Potential for Advancement

Job Location

1. Rochester $48,000 Average Average

2. Dallas $46,000 Excellent Good

3. Greensboro $46,000 Good Excellent

4. Pittsburgh $47,000 Average Good

Problem Solving and Decision Making

* You Decide to select alternative 3, Decision is the alternative selected

A Subclassification of The Decision making Process

Structuring The Problem Analyzing The Problem

DefineThe Problem

IdentifyThe Alternative

Determine the criteria

ChooseAnAlternative

EvaluateThe alternative

The Role of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

Structuring the Problem

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Analyzing the Problem

Definethe Problem

Determine the Criteria

Identifythe Alternative

QualitativeAnalysis

Quantitative Analysis

Summaryand Evaluation

Make the Decision

Problems

• Single criterion decisions problems• Multi criterion problems

Quantitative Analysis• Model Development - Iconic Model

- Analog Model - Mathematical Model Maximize 10x objective function Subject to (s.t.) 5x≤ 40 x ≥ 0

Constraint

• Data Preparation• Model Solution• Report Generation• A Note Regarding Implementation

Quantitative Analysis

Flowchart of The Process of Transforming Model Inputs into Output

Uncontrollable Inputs(Environmental Factors)

Mathematical Model

Output(Projected result)

Controllable Inputs(Decision Variable)

Quantitative Analysis

Flowchart for the Production Model (a)

Uncontrollable Inputs

Mathematical Model OutputControllable Inputs

Max 10 (8) s.t. 5(8) ≤ 40 8 ≥ 0

$10 profit per unit5 labor-hour per unit

40 labor-hours capacity

Profit = 80 Time Used =40

Value for the Production Quantity (x =8)

Quantitative Analysis

Decision Alternatives(Production

Quantity)x

Projected Profit

Total Hourof Production

Feasible Solution? (Hours Used ≤ 40)

0 0 0 Yes

2 20 10 Yes

4 40 20 Yes

6 60 30 Yes

8 80 40 Yes

10 100 50 No

12 120 60 No

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• Model Solution

Trial and Error Solution for the Production Model of Flowchart (a)

Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit

• Cost and Volume Model C (x)= (3000 + 2x)• Revenue and Volume Model R(x)= 5x • Profit and Volume Model P(x)= R(x) – C (x) = 5x – (3000 + 2x) = -3000 +3x

• P(x)= R(x) – C (x) = 5x – (3000 + 2x) = -3000 +3x

P(500) = -3000+3(500)= -1500

P(800) = -3000+3(800) = 2400

P(x) = -3000 + 3x = 0 3x = 3000, x=1000

Breakeven Analysis

Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit

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Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit

• Graph of the Breakeven analysis for Nowlin Plastics

2 4 6 8 10 12

Rev

enu

e an

d C

ost

6

8

10

12

4

2

0

Production Volume

Profit

Breakeven Point = 1000 unit

Total CostC(x) = 3000 + 2x

Total RevenueR(x) = 5x

Fix Cost

Loss