Foundations of Research

1What does science ‘do’?

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© Dr. David J. McKirnan, 2015The University of Illinois ChicagoMcKirnanUIC@gmail.comDo not use or reproduce without permission

Photo: :Public domain, via Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique. http://www.cnrs.fr/cw/fr/pres/compress/Toumai/Tounaigb/illustragb.html

Click image for NY Times piece on a revolutionary fossil discovery.

Foundations of Research

2What does science do?

What does Science do?

1. Describe the world

2. Made predictions (hypotheses)

3. Develop & test theories

4. Apply findings or theories

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Foundations of Research

3How do we describe the natural world?

Vivaldi’s Four Seasons well describes the emotional experience of the changing seasons.(Click the image for a Janine Jansen performance).

This picture ‘describes’ a desert environment.

Literature can well describe peoples’ inner states.

History, Journalism and the like describe the physical, social and cultural environment.

Click for a Nova article on describing the world with math.

© David J McKirnan

http://janinejansen.com/vivaldi-the-four-seasons/

Foundations of Research

4Galileo; How does the world work, not why.

Public domain image downloaded from: yathish.deviantart.

Galileo developed formulae that perfectly described the relation of time and distance for a falling object:

Time it takes for an object to fall a given distance ‘d’.

Distance an object will fall given time ‘t’.d = 16t2

Prior to modern science knowledge was often via authorities rather than evidence; • i.e., the church, influenced by

classical Philosophers. One of Galileo’s major contributions

was to not ask Why objects fall, a religious question, but How they fall, a scientific (descriptive) question.

Careful descriptions of the world can substantially change our knowledge or understanding.

Science:1. Descriptio

n2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

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There are two major ‘streams’ of descriptive research:

QuantitativeQualitative and

Addresses “lived experience”; the sight, sound and feel of participants’ worlds.

Data can be textual descriptions, recordings, soundscapes*…

Methods include: Focus groups, Open-ended (free

response) interviews, Direct observation

Captures mathematical or numerical characteristics of nature.

Data can be simple frequency counts – “how many…” – or complex correlations.

Methods include: Surveys, Structured interviews, Archival data, e.g., Unified

Crime Reports…

Describing the World

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Qualitative Quantitative

Conceptual approach

Methods

Adopted from: Minichiello, V. (1990). In-Depth Interviewing: Researching People. Longman Cheshire.

Describing the World: 2 major themes

Understand behavior from the participants’ perspective.

Discover facts about the social world.

Assume a dynamic and negotiated reality.

Assume a fixed and measurable reality.

Direct participant observation (“in the wild”), structured interviews, “life histories”...

Structured, “objective” measures that numerically code behavior.

Analyses seek dominant themes in participants’ stories

Statistical analyses of numerical data..

Data reported in the language of the participants.

Data reported via statistical inferences.

Click through the table to flesh out and contrast our themes a little more…

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Addresses “lived experience”; the sight, sound and feel of the worlds.

Data can be textual descriptions, recordings, or even soundscapes…

Click the image for a TED talk about using soundscapes to understand nature.

Describing the World

Qualitative Description

Foundations of Research

Simple observation: Describe what goes on “in the wild”.

Anthropology, sociology, ethnography, ethology, and similar disciplines rely on qualitative or observational data.

The Humanities often have sensitive, qualitative description at their heart…

Science:1. Descriptio

n2. Prediction3. Theory4. ApplicationQualitative Description

Madame Bovary, even as fiction, provides a rich and sensitive description of provincial life in mid-19th century France.

Describing the World

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Foundations of Research

Observational data are typically structured: Extensive field notes, Checklists, Behavioral counts, Audio / Video…

Science:1. Descriptio

n2. Prediction3. Theory4. ApplicationQualitative Description

Many quantitative studies begin with qualitative descriptions of a target population.

Describing the World

Foundations of Research

Qualitative Description

Social science descriptive studies often involve recording patterns of behavior in specific groups & places.

Focus groups, group interviews, structured observations… These data are valuable for formulating hypotheses.

Science:1. Descriptio

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Describing the World

http://www.themsrgroup.com/research-services/field-services/focus-groups/

Foundations of Research

World Music: A Retrospect Across The Globe, Venus Umesh. Click for link.

Of course description is a key building block in any area of study…

Science:1. Descriptio

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Describing the World

ShutterStock.

Click the chalkboard for a Nova overview of how Math describes the world.

Or Is mathematics an effective way to describe the world?Click.

Foundations of Research

Tracking patterns or systems using numbers

Useful for both developing and testing hypotheses.

Surveys, polls… Archival data such as

uniform crime reports. Epidemiological data;

disease rates… Physical observations

2. Quantitative Description

Science:1. Descriptio

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Describing the World

Click for Gallop polls

From: International Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Click for How Climate Models Work Click for How Climate Models Work

Foundations of Research

Examples of Descriptive Research

Taxonomies: Classification systems Ordering / sorting natural phenomena or

behaviors into categories. Based on the premise that category

information is scientifically meaningful. Shared characteristics within a category

are stronger than differences between individuals or categories.

Knowledge of category membership allows us to predict behavior or other properties.

Categories typically form a hierarchy, from very broad to increasingly specific.

Multiple specific categories are “nested” within broader sets.

Science:1. Descriptio

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Foundations of Research Examples of Descriptive Research

Taxonomies: Classification systems Central to biology, paleontology, psychology, demographics.

Biology & paleontology; describe species by shared v. distinct evolutionary characteristics

Psychology, Psychiatry; describe people (or groups) by behavioral tendencies or disorders.

Demographics: describe populations via ethnicity, education levels, language group…

Science:1. Descriptio

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American Psychiatric Assn. Click image for overview.

Foundations of Research Examples of Descriptive Research

Taxonomies: Classification systems Click the image and take a questionnaire to determine

your personality ‘type’.

Science:1. Descriptio

n2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research Examples of Descriptive Research

Where is AIDS most common in the U.S.?

Epidemiology; The study of patterns of disease or behavior in different segments of a population.

Severity of depression, by age and income.

Epidemiology may use: Direct measurement (e.g.,

surveys)

Standard records (e.g., medical visits & diagnoses)

Archival data (e.g., auto accident reports).

Science:1. Descriptio

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Foundations of Research

17Descriptive research

Paleontology attempts to accurately describe the predecessors of humans to understand evolution

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E Carefully describing specimens and the conditions where they are found can: Produce insights into

environmental change and evolution

Allow us to test hypotheses & develop theory.

The discovery of a fossil with ape and human features called Sahelanthropus tchadensis, or “Toumaï", dramatically

changed our understanding of human evolution.

Click here for the original article from Nature. Here for a New York Times overview.

Foundations of Research

2. Science and Predictions

Practical applications: What test score best predicts college success?

Can I predict which employees will steal?

These applications (should) stem from a theory. Verbal & quantitative aptitude academic success A specific personality constellation criminality…

That is (or should be…) supported by empirical evidence.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research Science and Predictions

Practical applications:

Testing hypotheses: An hypothesis is a prediction

Correlational research; I predict that cultures undergoing rapid economic change

will be more prone to irrational beliefs. Experimental research;

In a lab situation I make one group [the Experimental group] socially uncertain. In the [Control] group I do not manipulate uncertainty.

I predict that the experimental group will later be more prone to believe a list of superstitious beliefs than will the control group.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research Science and Predictions

Correlational research; I predict that cultures undergoing rapid economic change

will be more prone to irrational beliefs. Experimental research;

I predict that interventions to lessen peoples’ uncertainty about economic conditions will decrease their susceptibility irrational beliefs.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Here I actually manipulate one variable within individual people – uncertainty –

to see if it changes my other variable, irrational beliefs

Here I simply measure different cultures’ rate of economic change, and frequency of irrational beliefs,

to see if they are associated.

Foundations of Research Science and Predictions Science:

1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

In both cases, evidence evaluating the prediction allows us to develop and evaluate theories about how behavior works….

Correlational research; I predict that cultures undergoing rapid economic change

will be more prone to irrational beliefs. Experimental research;

I predict that interventions to lessen peoples’ uncertainty about economic conditions will decrease their susceptibility irrational beliefs.

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22Predictions and theory development

Correlating certain anatomical features of “proto-humans” with physical environments can test or develop theories about natural selection pressures.

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Scientists can then predict

(test hypotheses about) the types of fossils that should appear in different places.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Brian Villmoare / Ancient-Origins.net

The 2.8 million-year-old fossilized jawbone with small teeth which may be a transitional fossil between primitive and modern man.Click image for article.

Foundations of Research

3. Developing & Testing Theory

Identify basic (social, Ψ, physical…) processes…

that are systematically related…

Theory is the ‘bottom line’ of science

that show how or why something works.

i.e., what “causes” a phenomenon in the natural world.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

We spent time on this in module 1, and we will address it later in the course.In general, we attempt to:

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24Predictions and theory development

New data have led us to rethink the basic process of human evolution (i.e., change our theories)

from a simple progression

to a widening “bush” of parallel species.E

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Click image for an article from NYT

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25Predictions and theory development

The effects paleontologists see in their data lead them to rethink the shape of the evolutionary tree that must cause them.

This leads to a reconsideration of basic processes – e.g., selection pressures - that shape evolution.

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Foundations of Research 3. Testing theory: Mediating effects

What theory might help us explain an increase in superstitions or irrational beliefs?A. We describe a simple empirical effect

(correlation):

(Social uncertainty predicts more widespread irrational beliefs)

Social & economic uncertainty

Irrational beliefs

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research 3. Testing theory: Mediating effects

What might lead to irrational beliefs?B. How does this work? What Theory may

explain this?

Need to feel control

Social or economic uncertainly may create stress or a sense of helplessness.

Superstition may help people feel in control of their world under times of uncertainty.

Uncertainty Irrational beliefs

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research 3. Testing theory: Mediating effects

What might lead to irrational beliefs?B. How does this work? What Theory may

explain this?

Need to feel control

Critical thinking skills may lessen irrational responses to uncertain times…

Uncertainty Irrational beliefs

Critical thinking

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Foundations of Research Theory and processes

Need to feel controlUncertainty

Critical thinking

Our theory helps identify basic economic or psychological processes; specifies how they may be related; And generates testable hypotheses.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Irrational beliefs

Foundations of Research

What hypotheses does this theory contain? How might you test them? What other variables may be important to irrational

beliefs? How could you use this theory to change irrational

beliefs?

Theory and processes Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Need to feel controlUncertainty Irrational

beliefs

Critical thinking

Foundations of Research

What hypotheses does this theory contain? How might you test them? What other variables may be important to irrational beliefs? How could you use this theory to change irrational beliefs?

Theory and processes Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Decades ago the famous Psychologist Kurt Lewin noted: “There is nothing so practical as a good theory.”

Having a coherent theory allows us to test our assumptions, clarify our understanding, and suggest practical applications.

Foundations of Research 4. Applications of theory

We use theory to design interventions

…or we can use an intervention study to actually test a theory

Behavioral or biomedical interventions often compare treatments based on differing theories.

I use theory (and evidence) about learning to design this course…

Psychologists use practices derived from basic learning theory to “teach” people to no longer have phobias.

Theories of Cognitive Schema underlie Cognitive - Behavioral treatments for a range of problem behaviors.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Psychology 242Foundations of Research

Educational theory: Being active Cognitive “chunking” Multi-media attention

4. Applications of theory Use theory to design interventions

…an intervention study can test a theory

Behavioral or biomedical interventions compare treatments based on differing theories.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

Design of this course

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34Theories and interventions

One theory of smoking involves social networks: people are influenced by their friends’ smoking

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An intervention study of smoking cessation showed that having people quit with their friends may be more effective that quitting by themselves.

Science:1. Description2. Prediction3. Theory4. Application

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Foundations of Research

35Theories and interventions

The theory was that social networks influence smoking.

The hypothesis was that a network-based cessation program would work better than an individual program.

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Testing the hypothesis both: Pointed to a practical intervention approach; Supported the theory that social networks are

important to smoking and quitting.

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36The values of science & empiricism

Empirical description Can take multiple forms; qualitative, quantitative…

Important for its own sake, and for developing hypotheses

Predictions Core feature of a hypothesis;

A priori predictions force us to clearly test our ideas

Developing and testing theory Central role of science; explaining how or why a natural

process works.

Applications of theories Expand and elaborate a theory through applying it

Important for advances in, e.g., technology, behavioral science

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Please go to the ‘what does science do’ quiz.