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Deutsche Post DHL GroupDelivering eCommerce Investor Relations RBC 2015 Consumer & Retail Conference, London 21.5.15
#1 Global air freight volumes1
DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP IS THE GLOBAL LEADER OF THE LOGISTICS INDUSTRY
PAGE 2
Leader with a market share of 8% well ahead of next biggest competitors: 13.7mn m2 of warehouse space#1 Global leader in contract logistics1
64mn letters and more than 4 mn parcels each workday in GER, and selected international markets
#1 Europe´s largest postal and parcel provider
1
~4mn tons of Air freight volume
2.9mn TEUs of Ocean freight volume#2 Global ocean freight volumes
2
Leader with 34% market share, serving >2.5mn customers in 220 countries and territories#1 International express delivery1
Revenue of €4.2 bn and presence in more than 50 countries and territories#2 European road freight volumes2
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
OUR UNIQUE NETWORK CONFIGURATION IS A STRONG FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE GROWTH
PAGE 3
Europe International
Europe‘s No.1 parcelcompany with growing
coverage of own end-to-end network operations
Leading parcel provider in growthmarkets like India – incomparable global
network flexibility due to own parceloperations and interlinkage with DHL Express and local postal operators
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
WE TURNED INTO A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY TO REDEFINE PARCEL DELIVERY
PAGE 4
SORTING DELIVERY LOCKERS
Building Europe‘s largestparcel HUB
Having developed our owne-delivery van
Having constructed theleading parcel locker
solution
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Private Parcel boxes
Click-to-car
Parcel copterCourier and same day delivery
Parcel shops
Parcel lockers
INDIVIDUALIZING PARCEL DELIVERY ON THE LAST MILE IS THE ULTIMATE DIFFERENTIATOR
PAGE 5INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 6
Back-up
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
WE HAVE A KEEN INTEREST IN SUPPORTING THE GROWTH OF ECOMMERCE BY ADDRESSING VARIOUS PARTS OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN
PAGE 7
• International B2X shipping– Express– Deferred
commercial– Postal
• International eFulfillment solutions
Cross-border eCommerce Delivery eFulfillment
• Marketplaces
• Marketing services
• Payment solutions
eFacilitation
Primarily through partners
• Domestic eFulfillmentincl. value added services
• Multichannel domestic delivery and return incl. intra-EU
• Innovative services like Packstation, Private parcel box etc.
50 10203040
00
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
IN 2010, DHL PARCEL LAUNCHED THE ONLINE MARKET PLACE ALLYOUNEED.COM FOR THE GERMAN MARKET
PAGE 8
• Online marketplace with integrated checkout
• Additional sales channel for online shops - full range offer for online shoppers
• Launch Germany in 2010, first international branch in Poland since 2014
• Further European expansion with cross border leverage planned
At a glance
RegisteredCustomers
ActiveMerchants
AvailableProducts
3 mn 3,50013 mn
Allyouneed – MARKETPLACE
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
SINCE MAY 2012, ALLYOUNEED IS ACTIVE AS A FULL-RANGE ONLINE SUPERMARKET IN GERMANY
PAGE 9
• Online supermarket with focus on food and FMCG
• More than 20,000 products available (thereof 3,000 fresh chilled products)
• Dedicated delivery options for grocery (time-window, evening delivery) with “DHL Kurier”
• Allyouneedfresh.cn for Chinese customers with focus on health care/ baby & kids products
At a glance
RegisteredCustomers
Availableproducts
Avg itemsper order150k +20,00029
Allyouneed Fresh – SUPERMARKET
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DHL HAS LONG EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING AND RUNNING UNATTENDED DELIVERY SOLUTION
PAGE 10
DHL PACKSTATION – PARCEL LOCKER
• 24/7 parcel drop-off and pick-up• Delivery notification and mobile TAN transmission via
SMS• 14 years of experience in Hardware, Software and
network development• DHL owned hardware and software solution
More than 7 million frequent users in Germany
Our Network
• ~2800 machines with 270.000 compartments available each day
• Currently situated in more than 1600 cities nationwide. 90% of the German population are within 10 minutes of a PACKSTATION
• First machines placed outside Germany in the Netherlands, Italy and Switzerland
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Usage of DHL Parcel Box
*As of June 2015
Opening technologies via / : NFC-Chip Smartphone* Courier handheld
Offline access control with patented lock solution
Power supply by 4xAAA batteries (last 24 months)
Key features DHL Parcel Box
Online Purchase Delivery Reception First MileAddress the shipment to your home address
DHL courier opens box with handheld and inserts shipment
Customer opens box with NFC-Tag or smartphone
Place e.g. parcels return into parcel box; DHL courier picks up parcel
Product specifications: Two product lines
(classic/modern)
Two different sizes; e.g., XL with 166 liter
Upgrade options letter box and free standing
37 colors to choose from
THE DHL PARCEL BOXFOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS FOR PERSONALIZED DOOR STEP E-COMMERCE
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 11
Usage of modular DHL Parcel Box
*As of June 2015Opening technologies via / : NFC-Chip Smartphone* Courier handheldOffline access control with
patented lock solution
Dynamic compartment allocation opens door for customer only if a parcel is deposited for him
Key features DHL Parcel Box
Product specifications: Modular construction
4 compartment sizes
Flexible configurable
Upgrade option letter compartment
• Similar process and opening solution as for single-user parcel box
• Receiving as well as sending option (e.g. for returns) for registered users
• Correct allocation of respective receiver to right compartment done system-wise, thus high security level ensured
EXPANDING THE PARCEL BOX SOLUTION TO APARTMENT HOUSES ENABLES DOOR STEP CONVENIENCE FOR A BROADER POPULATION
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 12
„Click-to-car“ Project description
• Joint project development of Amazon & DHL
• In-car delivery piloted for May 2015
• Piloting partners:
Audi/VW
Perspectives and outlook
• Alternative to workplace delivery
• New, innovative delivery formats possible, e.g.
– Time window delivery to parking lots
– Night delivery at home addresses
– Unmanned car-to-car delivery
CLICK-TO-CAR IS A JOINT INNOVATION PROJECT OF AMAZON & DHL
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 13
PROCESS DESCRIPTION OF „CLICK-TO-CAR“ DELIVERY
„Click-to-car“ workflow
Example
Source: DHL, Audi/Volkswagen
Retailer sends license plate number and assumed car position (± 250 m) to DHL
DHL locates car through a) GPS function and b) blinking lights via special App
DHL opens trunk through special delivery App and delivers parcel
As soon as trunk is closed, customer receives message through consumer App Customer picks up parcel in trunk
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 14
THE PARCEL COPTER PROJECT PILOTSUNMANNED DELIVERY UNDER REAL LIFE CONDITIONS
Delivery service to the North Sea island of Juistsurpassing a distance of 12 km
Supply of urgent goods such as emergency medications or electronic goods
Flight by unmanned parcel copter outside visual range from the mainland to the coast of Juist
Second project phase 2014: Medical transport to German island
Unique research project with huge press echo worldwide Proof is shown: Technology works and can provide additional value DHL Parcel as important opinion leader
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 15
++
+
Germany-wide Next-day
Regional Same-dayTarget Areas Customer References
30 m. potential consignees!
Multi-Way Concept
Service
• Same-day delivery• Either in the evening time
slot (18-20 or 20-22) or by day within 90 minutes
• Additional services feasible (e.g. Multi-Way)
• >90% next day delivery• Evening time slot (18-20
or 20-22) selectable • Delivery pre-advice for a
30-minute time window
Services
• Convenient Multi-Way process, to avoid packaging waste
• Age verification e.g.,concerning delivery of liquors
Grocery
Pharmacy
Fashion & Others
DHL KURIER SETS NEW STANDARDS IN FAST AND CONVENIENT PARCEL DELIVERY
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 16
WE OFFER UNIQUE DELIVERY CHOICES TO OUR PRIVATE CUSTOMERS AND CONSIGNEES
* Scheduled for 2nd half of 2015
Unique delivery options at point-of-order
Full transparency on parcel delivery
Flexibility with individualdelivery options
Exclusive reward systemfor DHL customers
Online shopping process Beyond parcel deliveryParcel delivery process
• Direct delivery to+11,000 DHL Parcel-shops (pick-up-stations)
• Direct delivery to +2,800 DHL Packstations(country-wide locker system)
• Additional delivery features selectable in check-out process of web shops, e.g., time-window definition(DHL Courier)
• Full transparency on delivery process with- estimated delivery day- time window pre-
diction
• Various formats of information:- E-Mail notification- DHL Parcel App- Push notification- T&T/DHL Website/
private customer portal
• Ad-hoc rerouting options for parcels under-way, e.g., change- delivery day- delivery time*- delivery address*- to a safe-place at
home*
• Definition of delivery preferences at private customer portal (valid for all parcels received at home)
• DHL Parcel loyalty program (~ 40% of registered private DHL customers participating)
• Get rewards, e.g., for using direct delivery options to Packstation
• Access to unique pre-mium service options, e.g., quicker access to customer service
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 17
AS A RESULT, GERMANY IS TRAILBLAZER FOR THE EUROPEAN E-COMMERCE AND SERVES AS BENCHMARK FOR FUTURE GROWTH
2012 Parcels per capita
2018Parcels per capitaGrowth driver
Further development of recipient services
Cross-border orders ofproducts, which are not available locally
New goods and productcategories, e.g. groceriesand furniture
The European e-commerce will be boosted by improved delivery services and a broader product range
CHUKDE
NLFRDK
CZBESE
ESPL
AT
12
8
6
5
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
123
5115126
1462412
242
639410410411
CHUKDE
NLFRDK
CZBESE
ESPL
AT
IT IT 2Source: DHL Parcel Europe
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 18
Deutsche Post DHL Group Investor RelationsMay 2015
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015 PAGE 19
Main operating and financial trends as expected
Q1 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
PAGE 20
2015/16 guidance confirmed
Structural volume trends of dynamic parcel growth and letter decline once more confirmed in PeP with EBIT flat as revenue growth again offset by higher costs
Express growth momentum fully intact with volume growth feeding further margin increase to drive another strong EBIT performance and higher cash flow
Weak Forwarding performance: new management to review transformation course and focus on operating performance improvement
Supply Chain restructuring initiatives now in execution phase Cash Flow performance showing usual seasonal Q1 pattern with civil servant
pension payment and reversal of year-end effects
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Executing on our short-term agenda… Stabilize Forwarding operating performance while reviewing transformation course Execute Supply Chain restructuring measures Negotiate a wage agreement to ensure future competitiveness especially in Parcel
Germany Continue investments in successful Express operations
…to build momentum for our long term strategic and financial goals:
DPDHL GROUP STRATEGIC AGENDA
PAGE 21
Leveraging growth in e-commerce and emerging markets, based on unrivalled, diversified business portfolio
Clear roadmap for margin and profit improvement
Flexible balance sheet and improving cash generation underpin payout policy
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Management structure: Frank Appel, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Renato Chiavi, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding Tobias Meyer, EVP Programs (Transformation) Amadou Diallo, CEO DHL Freight (unchanged)
Weak operational performance requires new management to review transformation course Unchanged commitment to transformation and to increase of efficiency of our
Forwarding business Reviewing transformation course based on pilot country and organizational alignment
analysis
MANAGEMENT UPDATE ON DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING
PAGE 22
First priority: renewed and intensive focus on improving underlying business performance
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DHL SUPPLY CHAIN HAS 9 INITIATIVES TO DELIVER STRATEGY 2020
PAGE 23
1 Improvement of underperforming business
2 Operational standardization
3 Commercial standardization
FocusDrive standardization and reduce complexity…
4 Efficient and effective functions
5 Consistent and lean organization globally
6 Culture and mindset shift
ConnectCreate an effective organization globally…
8 Global sectors andproducts
7 Value added services
9 Geographical shift
GrowShift the portfolio…
…to address attractive segments
…to enable change…to increase efficiency
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 24
PeP: STRUCTURAL REDUCTION IN PERSONNEL FACTOR COSTS DUE TO LAUNCH OF NEW PARCEL DELIVERY UNITS
11.90-13.20
17.70
8.50*8.50* 8.50*
12.79
Degree of outsourcing
<5%33%95%100%100%
Deutsche Post AGDHL Delivery GmbH
0%
Wage costs at Deutsche Post AG significantly above competition Launch of new Delivery GmbHs reduces gap to competition since average wage level at
12.79 EUR/h instead of 17.70 EUR/h at DPAG
Average wages, in EUR/hCurrently ~6,000
employees
* Legal minimum wage
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 25
FIRST MILE: Marketplace offer rebranded and going international
PackstationPaketshops Delivery boxesDelivery at Home Parcel box
LAST MILE: Customer-centric range of delivery options with ~30.000 drop off points
PeP: CONTINUOUSLY OPTIMISING OUR PARCEL SERVICE OFFERING
Allyouneed.com Allyouneedfresh.com
• Re-branding of MeinPaket.de
• Launch in Poland
NEW
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Steady increase in TDI market share driven by best-in-class global network and service levels
Growth accompanied by continuous strong margin increase; further improvement possible from network, efficiency and scale effects
Growth enabled by targeted investments into our network
Modernizing European air fleet, upgrading capacityand efficiency
Continued investment in hub and ground infrastructure across all geographies
Global TDI Revenue Market Share Development
DHL EXPRESS: SUCCESSFUL TDI STRATEGY
PAGE 26
29% 31% 33% 34%
23% 22% 22% 22%
29% 29% 27% 26%
7% 6% 6% 6%12% 12% 12% 12%
2010 2011 2012 2013
DHL UPS FedEx TNT Others
1) Source: MI 2014 Study: AT, DE, DK, ES, FR, IT, NL, RU, TR, UK, BR, CA, CO, MX, US, CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG, AE, SA, ZA
Key Performance Drivers
+14% +9% +6%
+8% +3% +3%Marketgrowth1)
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
STRATEGY 2020: TOPLINE GROWTH AND MARGIN IMPROVEMENT
PAGE 27
Continued focus on TDI with network, efficiency
and scale effects
Main Strategic Drivers
Stabilize Forwarding operatingperformance while reviewing
transformation course
Standardization, overheadleverage and contractportfolio enhancement
GDP growth assumptions
+5%+2%
Mature Regions
EmergingMarkets
Attractive growth in key addressable market segments within logistics
Estimated Market CAGR 2011‒2020, in EUR
+5-7% +8% +5-6%+4-5%+2-3%+5-6%
Parcel Germany InternationalExpress
Air FreightForwarding
ContractLogistics
Parcel Domestic International
Ocean FreightForwarding
Revenue mix shift to parcel and increased exposure to e-commerce
structural growth trend
All divisions will contribute towards >8% group EBIT CAGR target
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
FINANCE POLICY, UNCHANGED
Target / maintain rating BBB+
Dividend payout ratio to remain between 40–60% of net profit (continuity and Cash Flow performance considered)
Excess liquidity will be used for Stepwise pension funding
and / or
Share buybacks and/or extraordinary dividends
Dividend proposal of EUR 0.85 to the AGM on May 27, 2015i.e. dividend payments of EUR 1.030bn to DPDHL shareholders on May 28, 2015
2014 DIVIDEND INCREASE OF 6% AND UNCHANGED FINANCE POLICY
PAGE 28
Deployment of Free Cash Flow
2013
€ 0.65
53%40%
59%49%
2010
58%
2012
60%
2011
€ 0.70€ 0.70€ 0.80
50%Underlying Payout Ratio1)
€ 0.852)
1) Adjusted for Postbank effects as well as non-recurring items2) Proposal to AGM
2014
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
EBIT GUIDANCE CONFIRMED FOR 2015/16/20
PAGE 29
EUR bn 2015 2016 2020
PeP At least 1.3 above 1.3 ~ 3% CAGR 2013-20
DHL 2.1-2.25 2.45-2.75 ~ 10% CAGR 2013-20
CC/Other ~ -0.35 ~ -0.35 <0.5% of group revenue
Group 3.05-3.2 3.4-3.7 >8% CAGR 2013-20
FY 2015:
Free Cash Flow to exceed 2014 dividend
Tax rate around 18%
Gross Capex of around EUR 2.0bn
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 30
Divisional Information
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DEUTSCHE POST DHL AT A GLANCE
PAGE 31
Group
Brands
Corporate Divisions
63% market share in letter mail, 43% market share in German parcel market, selected international parcel activities Sales: EUR 15,686m EBIT: EUR 1,298mEmpl.2): 164,582
Post - eCommerce-Parcel
Global Time-Definite-International (TDI) leader with 34% market share
Sales: EUR 12,491m EBIT: EUR 1,260mEmpl.2): 73,009
Express
World´s largest Air and 2nd largest Ocean freight forwarder, No2 in European road freightSales: EUR 14,924m EBIT: EUR 293mEmpl.2): 44,311
Global ForwardingFreight
Global market leader, market share of 8% well ahead next biggest competitorsSales: EUR 14,737mEBIT: EUR 465mEmpl.2): 146,400
Supply Chain
Group revenues 1): € 56.6bn Group EBIT1): € 2.965bn Approximately 440,000 employees
1) Financial year 2014; 2) Average FTEs FY 2014
Corporate Center / Other: Sales: EUR 1,343m; EBIT: EUR -351m
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
POST, E-COMMERCE & PARCEL
PAGE 32INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
1,738 1,727563 547
Q1 2014Q1 2015
-2.8%-0.6%
Q1 2015Q1 2014
m EUR Mail Communication revenue decline in line with
modest volume decline (-1.7%) Dialogue Marketing also with limited revenue
decline as price increases mostly compensate volume decline (-9.8%)
Parcel Germany revenue growth outpacing strong volume growth of 11.0% supported by price increases
Robust organic growth in international Parcel activities in and outside of Europe, also supported by currency developments
PeP: GOOD GROWTH ACROSS OUR PARCEL ACTIVITIES
PAGE 331) Parcel Europe ex Germany; 2) Parcel outside Europe
Business HighlightsMail Communication revenue Dialogue Marketing revenue
Parcel Germany volumes Parcel Germany revenue
Parcel Europe revenue1) DHL eCommerce revenue2)
9471,062
+12.1%+11.0%m units
165 173 240 302
+25.8%+4.8%
Q1 2015Q1 2014 Q1 2015Q1 2014
Q1 2015Q1 2014 Q1 2015Q1 2014
m EUR
m EUR
m EURm EUR
246 273
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PeP – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
PAGE 34
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Chg. Management comments
Revenue 3,960 4,101 +3.6% Revenue increase reflecting growth across eCommerce - Parcel activities as well as price increases in Post products
EBIT 396 399 +0.8% EBIT growth constrained by rise in wages and transportation costs as well as expenses for international expansion of eCommerce - Parcel
Operating Cash Flow 137 185 +35.0% OCF increase driven by positive working capital development
Capex 38 64 +68.4% Investments mainly directed to parcel infrastructure expansion
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
MAIL Division
Mail Communication
Dialogue Marketing
Press Services
Retail Outlets
Pension Services
Global Mail
Parcel Germany
Post
All letters including import /export fromand to Germany. Also includes newservices like E-Post and ADAC Postbus
2013 Revenue, restated: EUR 9,984m
eCommerce - Parcel
Domestic and cross-border parcels and parcel operations in selective markets
2013 Revenue, restated: EUR 5,307m
Asset shifts
Domestic Parcel in Czech Republic, Netherlands, Belgium,Poland and India
Post - eCommerce – Parcel: NEW REVENUE REPORTING STRUCTURE
Letters → Post
Parcels → eCommerce - Parcel
Before 2014 From 2014
PAGE 35INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
eCommerce & Parcel
Market growth assumption (in EUR), 2011-20, p.a.:+5-7% Germany domestic; +8% international domestic Price regulation: No regulatory price cap
Post
Expected average letter volume decline of -2 to -3% p.a.Price regulation: price cap = CPI - 0.2% Stamp price increase1): +2.8% in 2013
+1.6% in 2014 +1.0% as of Jan 1, 2015
e-post revenues: > 300m in 2014
PeP 2020 TARGET: SUPPORTED BY MIX SHIFT TOWARDS PARCEL
PAGE 36
PeP: Revenue Mix PeP: Market Assumptions
1)Average increase on basket of regulated products, applicable to EUR ~3.3bn directly affected Post revenue
E-commerce trend to continue to drive mix shift from letter toparcel products
19%
81% 64%
36%
2010 2014
Mail division excl. Parcel Parcel Germany
Post eCommerce - Parcel
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 37
Comprehensive e-commerce fulfillment solution established
Best-in-class supply chain technology combined with proven regional order fulfillment and domestic & international delivery services
First dedicated eFulfillment warehouse in Columbus,OH launched in March
Adding fulfillment services and products in collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
Established US presence based on former Global Mail activities
Last-mile delivery via USPS
Fully integrated into global postal network for international parcel delivery
iCart product offers fully landed cost calculator for international shipments to customers – integrated in product offering since 2013
eCommerce Business DescriptionDomestic distribution capacities:
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
Consolidation and sortation of domestic and international parcels#4 in US B-2-USPS consolidator market (SmartMail® product)
PeP: DHL eCommerce IS AN ESTABLISHED PLAYER IN THE US
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 38
First eFulfillment facility approaching go-live in Delhi with first global customer
Facility built as a model for potential further rollout of e-fulfillment centers in India and other Asian markets
Blue Dart will provide front-end and customer interface as well as delivery, DHL Supply Chain will contribute warehousing and 3PL expertise
Adding fulfillment services and products in collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
Fully integrated domestic air & ground network, last mile deliver partly through third parties
52% market share in air express
15% market share in ground express
65 ground hubs and 7 air network stations
Roll out of Smart Truck technology to enhance productivity and drive efficiencies
Business DescriptionDomestic distribution capacities:
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
South Asia’s premier express and integrated package distribution companyDomestic market leader for B2B and B2C parcels in India
PeP: BLUE DART PROVIDES BASE FOR DHL eCommerce IN ASIA
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
WORKING DAYS GERMANY
PAGE 39
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 61.6 62.2 62.2 61.2
Q2 60.3 59.3 59.3 62.3
H1 121.9 121.5 121.5 123.5
Q3 65.8 65.8 66 65,8
9M 187.7 187.3 187.5 189.3
Q4 60.2 60.9 63 62,2
H2 126 126.7 129 128
FY 247.9 248.2 250.5 251.5
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
EXPRESS
PAGE 40INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Strong start into the year with TDI volume growth of +7.1% ( MEA +12.4%, Europe +10.2%, Asia/Pacific +5.4%, Americas + 0.6%)
Volume growth outpacing revenue growth due to lower fuel surcharge
Strong focus on customers and service quality has driven further market share gains
Growth supported by continuous expansion and improvement of our leading global network, including hub investments across all major geographies
EXPRESS: STRONG TDI GROWTH CONTINUES
PAGE 41
Time Definite International (TDI)1)
Revenues per day in EUR m
Time Definite International (TDI)Shipments per day ‘000s
34.035.2
+3.5%
662709
+7.1%
Business Highlights
Q1 2015Q1 2014
Q1 2015Q1 2014
1) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Data aggregated with same currency rate
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
EXPRESS – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
PAGE 42
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Chg. Management comments
Revenue 2,879 3,240 +12.5% Strong TDI volume growth supported by positive FX effects. Organic revenuegrowth at 2.3% mainly impacted by significant decrease in fuel surcharge revenue
EBIT 276 332 +20.3% Strong EBIT growth driven by TDI volume growth and network efficiencies, EBIT margin up 60bp yoy to 10.2%
Operating Cash Flow 285 334 +17.2% Strong operating cash flow increase in line with trend in EBIT performance
Capex 39 75 +92.3% Main investments going towards hub and gateway infrastructure upgrade as well as air fleet modernization and expansion
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Continued TDI leadership across all regions outside the Americas
DHL EXPRESS: GLOBAL TDI MARKET SHARES
PAGE 43
Global [EUR 20.1bn]
DHL TNT UPS FedEx Others
+x% Change vs 2012 MI study
44%
20%
11%
4%
21%
46%
32%
18%1%
3%
41%
25%
12%
10%
12%
Europe [EUR 6.0bn]Americas [EUR 6.8bn ] Asia Pacific [EUR 6.8bn]
+1%
+2%+1%
34%
26%
22%
6%12%
+1%Source: MI study 2014EU : AT, DE, DK, ES, FR, IT, NL, RU, TR, UKAM : BR, CA, CL, CO, CR, GT, MX, PA, PE, USAP : CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SGGLOBAL : EU + AM + AP + (AE + SA + ZA)
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DHL EXPRESS FOCUS ON TDI
PAGE 44
Continue successful FOCUS strategy
TDI (Time Definite International)The premium segment within Express Industry
Time Definite = Dedicated delivery at a scheduled time of dayInternational = Cross-Border Shipment (intra- or between continents)TDI: requires dense and broad international network
TDD: Time Definite Domestic Revenue Share = Delivery at scheduled time within one country. DDI: Day Definite InternationalDDD: Day Definite DomesticACS: Air Capacity Sales (re-sale of spare capacity on dedicated fleet to optimize utilization, not sold by core Express sales teams)
DHL Express Core Product
58%12%
5%
14%
11%
2009 Revenue distribution
TDI TDD DDI DDD ACS / Other
75%
8%
3%2% 12%
2014 Revenue distribution
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DHL EXPRESS: VIRTUAL AIRLINE MODEL & AIR CAPACITY SALES
PAGE 45
Virtual Airline
Block Space Agreement, guaranteed air cargo product.
Express TDI core product, capacity based on average utilization, adjusted on a daily basis
CORE Flex & Air Capacity Sales Flex, a set amount of the Total Spare Capacity to be utilised for TDI core volume surge and/or air cargo filler traffic
Air cargo guaranteed, a set amount of the Total Spare Capacity guaranteed for priority traffic & key customers
Air Capacity Sales
Capacity Commitment
Approx. 500 airports and 22 major hubs connected through 1. Dedicated air: >250 aircrafts with 17 partner airlines on
>600 daily flights2. Purchased air: >300 commercial airlines with >1.800
daily flightsCORE
TDI CAPA-CITY
FLEX
ACS GUAR.
BSA
22%
26%
52%
0 - 90 Days (incl.Purchased Air)91 - 360 Days
Fixed
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
FORWARDING, FREIGHT
PAGE 46INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Air and ocean volume growth slowing, mainly due to EMEA and AP regions
GP/unit stable in Air Freight at low levels and Ocean Freight GP/unit decline reflect continued difficult industry environment
Weak divisional EBIT performance due to complexity of NFE implementation and associated organizational changes
New management sets priority on improving business performance – with unchanged commitment to transformation based on comprehensive review
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT: WORKING TOWARDS STABILISATION
PAGE 47
Air freight ‘000s Tons
Ocean freight ‘000s TEU1)
932935
+0.3%
688 704
Q1 2015
+2.3%
Q1 2014
1) Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit
Business Highlights
Q1 2015Q1 2014
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT– DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
PAGE 48
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Chg. Management comments
Revenue 3,523 3,789 +7.6% Revenue increase driven by volume growth in ocean freight and FX
Gross Profit 843 859 +1.9% Continued difficult market environment with margin pressure in both AFR and OFR
EBIT 49 17 -65.3% Further affected by ongoing NFE transformation program and low GP/unit in AFR and OFR
Operating Cash Flow -100 -160 -60.0% Mainly reflecting EBIT decline and unfavorable working capital development
Capex 22 40 +81.8% Low capex reflecting asset light business model
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
SUPPLY CHAIN
PAGE 49INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Sound order intake in Q1 (EUR 260m) especially in Automotive, Consumer and Life Sciences & Healthcare
Revenue growth across all verticals, strongest in Automotive, Consumer sectors and Life Sciences & Healthcare
Further steps taken in implementing Strategy 2020 as presented at last Capital Markets Tutorial
Restructuring charges cover implementation of consistent and lean organizational structure, addressing underperforming business areas as well as productivity measures
SUPPLY CHAIN: SOLID PERFORMANCE GIVEN RESTRUCTURING
PAGE 50
New signings, EUR m1)
Revenue by sector Q1 2015
175 260
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
1) Annualized revenue
23%
19%
20%
10%
11%
2%10% 5%
Technology
Life Sciences & Healthcare
Consumer
RetailOthers
Williams Lea
Energy
Automotive
Business Highlights
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
SUPPLY CHAIN – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
PAGE 51
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Chg. Management comments
Revenue 3,506 3,942 +12.4%FX benefits mainly driven by stronger USD and GBP. Organic revenue up 0.8% supported by new business across all regions (UK,US and APAC) but still held back by a deliberate customer loss in North America
EBIT 85 53 -37.6% EBIT declining mainly due to restructuring costs as timing effects from real estate transactions
Operating Cash Flow 28 -112 n.a. Cash flow down yoy mainly due to timing effects
Capex 65 73 12.3% Higher capex reflecting phasing of new contract investments
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
SUPPLY CHAIN: TAKING PERFORMANCE TO THE NEXT LEVEL
PAGE 52
ROCE, incl. Goodwill
DHL Supply Chain is a successful member of DPDHL family of divisions
12% 13% 14% 15%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply Chain Strategy 2020 set to deliver further performance improvement
Strong and increasing returns… …based on resilient, asset-light business model
18%
10%
27%
45%Warehousing
Transportation
Williams Lea
Value Added Services
1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3,2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4-5%
2020
EBIT marginNew 2020
margin target:
DPDHL Capital Markets Tutorial Workshop
London, November 13, 2014
http://www.dpdhl.com/en/investors/events_and_presentations/capital_markets_day.html
DPDHL Capital Markets Tutorial Workshop
London, November 13, 2014
http://www.dpdhl.com/en/investors/events_and_presentations/capital_markets_day.html
For more information
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
PAGE 53
Appendix
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Q1 REFLECTS TRANSFORMATION & RESTRUCTURING FOCUS
PAGE 54
Flat Group EBIT with divisional performance showing the expected mixed picture
REVENUE EBIT
Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Change Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Change
PeP 3,960 4,101 +3.6% 396 399 +0.8%
Express 2,879 3,240 +12.5% 276 332 +20.3%
Forwarding, Freight 3,523 3,789 +7.6% 49 17 -65.3%
Supply Chain 3,506 3,942 +12.4% 85 53 -37.6%
Group 13,569 14,767 +8.8% 727 720 -1.0%
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
GROUP P&L Q1 2015
PAGE 55
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Chg. Management comments
Revenue 13,569 14,767 +8.8% Revenue development supported by currency effects. Organic growth of 2.1% with growth in all four Divisions / industries. Impact also from lower energy prices
EBIT 727 720 -1.0% Group EBIT about flat as strong Express growth is offset by transformation and restructuring related costs in Forwarding and Supply Chain
t/o PeP 396 399 +0.8% Static operating profit as revenue growth driven by eCommerce - Parcel activities and price increases is countered by factor cost inflation
t/o DHL 410 402 -2.0%Continued strong performance across all major metrics in Express. Declines in Supply Chain and Forwarding, Freight EBIT mainly reflect planned restructuring and transformation initiatives
Financial result -80 -64 +20.0% Improvement driven by benefits from lower interest rate environment on interest expense for bonds and provisions as well as FX effects
Taxes -123 -115 +6.5% Tax rate of 17.5% in line with ~18% full-year guidance
Cons. net profit1) 502 495 -1.4% Net profit and EPS about flat, in line with stable operating profit development
EPS (in EUR) 0.42 0.41 -2.4% Strong increase in net profit attributable to non-controlling interests
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
EUR m Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Cash from operating activities before changes in Working Capital 793 737
Q1 cash generation as every year burdened by payment of full-year contribution for civil servant pension scheme (EUR 530m) Tight management of Group working capital helped to minimize flow-back of typical year-end cash effects
Changes in Working Capital -709 -658
Net cash from operating activities after changes in Working Capital 84 79
Net Capex -401 -526 Free Cash Flow decline due to increased capex spend reflecting continued investments in our growth markets as well as timing effects Net interest line benefitted from one-off effect of EUR 76m related to monetization of interest rate swaps
Net M&A 0 0
Net Interest -31 70
Free Cash Flow -348 -377 FFO/Debt at 24.9% (year-end 2014: 27.7%)
FREE CASH FLOW Q1 2015
PAGE 56
Seasonal factors drive usual Free Cash Outflow in Q1
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Seasonality drives net debt increase as usual in Q1Annual contribution to civil servant pension of EUR 530m (o.w. 130m in EBIT/OCF and 400m in W/C)
NET DEBT (-)/LIQUIDITY (+)
PAGE 57
-2,077
70
-526
-658737
-1,499
Othereffects
Net capex
Changesin W/C
Net debt(Dec 31, 2014)
OCF before change in W/C
Net debt(Mar 31, 2015)
-201
in EUR m
Net interest
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
1551
1345
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sustained increase in Operating Cash Flow Provides funding for investment in future growth, in particular in Parcel and Express While simultaneously driving improved Free Cash Flow generation
IMPROVING CASH FLOW GENERATION
PAGE 58
3,0402,989
2,2442)2,371OCF:1,927
in EURm
2010-14 CAGR:OCF: >10%
Net capex: >10%
FCF: >20%
1) includes net M&A and net interest 2) Adjusted for non-recurring items
Use of OCF: Net Capex Other1)
FCF
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
DBO pensions in Germany No regulatory funding requirement
Pensions paid partially from plan assets and partially from current OCF
Impact of declining discount rates Balance sheet: net pension provision up 1.5bn in Q1 2015 due to
another step-down in Euro discount rate
P&L: slight increase in staff costs expected in 2015 (mainly due to higher current service costs), mostly offset by small decline in finance costs
Cash flow: cash outflow not directly affected as actual pension payments and employer contributions to plan assets not affected by fluctuations in applied discount rate levels
REMINDER ON PENSIONS: DEFINED BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS (DBO)
PAGE 59
7,138 8,635
10,96111,849
Net PensionProvision
Plan assets
Dec. 31, 2014
18,099Total DBO
2014 Q1 2015
Average Discount Rate (quarter-end) 2.62% 2.04%
EUR Discount Rate (quarter-end) 2.25% 1.50%
in EUR m
Lower discount rates increase balance sheet liability but have no direct impact on cash generation
Mar. 31, 2015
20,484
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
Gross Capex / Sales ratio -Group & by division
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EXPRESS GROUP PeP SUPPLY CHAIN DGF
STABLE CAPITAL INTENSITY EXPECTED
PAGE 60
GROUP AVERAGE
EXPRESS ~4%
SUPPLY CHAIN ~2%
PeP ~3%
FORWARDING ~1%
~3%
Gross Capex intensity, 2007–2014 average
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
STRATEGY 2015 HAS DRIVEN SIGNIFICANT OPERATING IMPROVEMENT
INVESTOR RELATIONS | MAY 2015 PAGE 61
PeP: EBIT stabilization delivered DHL EBIT margins(2): good progress, more to come to contribute to ~10% DHL EBIT CAGR target
2010 Q1 2015
4.4%
2.7%1.8% 1.7%
1,120 1,107
1,199
1,286 1,298
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1)
1)in EUR bn
Strategy 2020 target:3% EBIT CAGR
2013-20
Strategy 2020 target:3% EBIT CAGR
2013-20
Strategy 2015 EBIT target:
min. EUR 1bn
10.2%
2.9%
1)Reported FY 12 EBIT including EUR -151m one-off effect from VAT settlement; Reported FY13 was restated by EUR ~60m for asset shift from DHL implemented on January 1, 20142)EBIT margin, last 12 months (rolling)
Express: strong improvement
Forwarding, Freight: currently affected by NFE and low GP margins
Supply Chain: steady progress
Group revenue footprint
22% 30%
78% 70%
Today Target
Mature Markets Emerging Markets
Building on our leading market positions in growth regions, 30% emerging market targets is AMBITIOUS BUT ACHIEVABLE
2020 target2013
OUR AMBITION FOR THE EMERGING MARKETS
PAGE 62INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
FOCUS. CC/OTHER COSTS
PAGE 63
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
TAR
GET
0.5%
Corporate bodies (e.g. CB, SVB)and legal obligations/ foundations
Investments into growth & cross-divisional initiatives
Core Corporate Center costs
CC / Other cost, as % of revenue CC / Other cost structure, 2014
20%
60%
20%
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT ARE NEITHER REPORTED RESULTS NOR OTHERHISTORICAL INFORMATION. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS ANDUNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED INTHE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. MANY OF THESE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES RELATE TO FACTORS THATARE BEYOND DEUTSCHE POST AG’S ABILITY TO CONTROL OR ESTIMATE PRECISELY, SUCH AS FUTURE MARKETAND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THE ABILITY TOSUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE ACQUIRED BUSINESSES AND ACHIEVE ANTICIPATED SYNERGIES AND THE ACTIONSOF GOVERNMENT REGULATORS. READERS ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESEFORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, WHICH APPLY ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. DEUTSCHEPOST AG DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY RELEASE ANY REVISIONS TO THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT EVENTS OR CIRCUMSTANCES AFTER THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TOSUBSCRIBE FOR OR BUY ANY SECURITY, NOR SHALL THERE BE ANY SALE, ISSUANCE OR TRANSFER OF THESECURITIES REFERRED TO IN THIS PRESENTATION IN ANY JURISDICTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF APPLICABLELAW.
COPIES OF THIS PRESENTATION AND ANY DOCUMENTATION RELATING TO THE OFFER ARE NOT BEING, ANDMUST NOT BE, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, MAILED OR OTHERWISE FORWARDED, DISTRIBUTED OR SENT IN ORINTO OR FROM AUSTRALIA, CANADA OR JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BEUNLAWFUL.
THIS DOCUMENT REPRESENTS THE COMPANY‘S JUDGMENT AS OF DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
DISCLAIMER
PAGE 64INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
INVESTOR RELATIONS CONTACTS
PAGE 65
Sarah Bowman• +1 212 381 3463 • E-mail: [email protected]
Sebastian Slania• +49 228 182 63203• E-mail: [email protected]
Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations• +49 228 182 63000• E-mail: [email protected]
Robert Schneider• +49 228 182 63201• E-mail: [email protected]
Christian Rottler• +49 228 182 63206• E-mail: [email protected]
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015