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Client UpdateSeptember 2013
Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA
2 Much Easier to Say Rabobank
3
What's Happening at Home
Source: Bloomberg
Things are mixed
Retail sales to June 2013
CPI and Wage Growth
RBA dropped rates but now sitting on the side lines to see what happens next
4 Source: ABS, Rabobank
What's Happening at Home
5 Source: ABS, Stats NZ, Rabobank
What's Happening at Home
6
What's Happening at Home
Source: ABS, Rabobank
7 Source: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Long TermRBA cash rate at 2.50%Previous lows: 3.00% in 08/09 post GFC, equal to 1961 low
•_____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day
8
Interest Rates – Short Term
Source: Bloomberg•_____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day
Bank rates about 0.50% higher then GFC low
9
Influences from US
Talk of “Tapering” in the US has lead to rise in long term rates
This has carried over to AUD yield curveSame in Europe
10
Interest Rates: USD, EUR & AUD Swaps
Source: Bloomberg
*=5 Aug 2013 =6 Sep 2013
11
AUD Still Weakening ?
Source: Bloomberg
12 Source Bloomberg
Changing Fundamentals
13 Source Bloomberg
Changing Fundamentals
14
US Drought – Back in Feb 2013
15
US Drought – This Week
16
But its not all about the US.....
17
But its not all about the US.....
18 Source USDA, Rabobank
19 Source USDA, Rabobank
20 Source: AgResource Co
US Corn Crop Conditions
21
US Soybean Crop Conditions
22
US Soybean Way over Corn
23
US Dec13 Wheat V Dec13 Corn
24
Long Term US Wheat V Corn
25
2013 Wheat Swap and Cash Price
Source: Grainmarket
26
2014 Wheat Swap and Cash Price
Source: Grainmarket
27
2013 Canola Swap and Cash
Source: Grainmarket
28
2014 Canola Swap
Source: Grainmarket
29
Rabobank International
Andrew Tasker
GFM Representative - WA
Global Financial Markets
t. 08 9318 8722
m. 0408 848 123
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