Chart Discussion: Fri-16-October-2015 (Harvey Stern) Chart ... · Seasonal Outlook Oct-Dec 2015 Chart Discussion: Fri-09-October-2015 (Harvey Stern) A special update of the climate

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Chart Discussion: Fri 16-Oct-2015MSL Analyses : Sat-10-Oct to Thu-15-Oct

Warmest first half of October for seventy-five years

Chart Discussion: Fri-16-October-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-15-Oct-2015

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif


http://www.bom.gov.au/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

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ECUS GFS

ACCESS

Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 16-Oct-2015

OBSERVED


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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-16-Oct-2015


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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

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Trend (5-year ‘running’ ACCs) in accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

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Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Max Temp]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

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Trend (5-year ACCs) in accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Max Temp]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

9


Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Min Temp]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

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Trend (5-year ‘running’ ACCs) in accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Min Temp]


QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesPacific and Indian oceans now reinforcing climate patterns

El Niño strongest since 1997; Indian Ocean Dipole highest since late 2006


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Seasonal Outlook Oct-Dec 2015


A special update of the climate outlooks was

released (shown above) due to a significant

shift towards a drier October nation-wide,

related to the emerging positive Indian Ocean

Dipole reinforcing the strong El Niño.

Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne

… next 30 Days (statistically-based)

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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-15-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Fri 16-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Fri 16-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Sat 17-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Sat 17-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Sun 18-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Sun 18-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Mon 19-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Mon 19-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Tue 20-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Tue 20-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Wed 21-Oct-2015


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Jet Streams: Wed 21-Oct-2015


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MSL Pressure: Thu 22-Oct-2015


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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 22-Oct-2015


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Verifying Melbourne Forecasts[Updated to 31-Aug-2015]

Max Temp

Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)

Rainfall Amount

Peaks in skill coincide with

successful prediction of a group

of extreme events (2010/11: Rain;

2013/14: Max Temp)


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Day 8-10 GFS Model: Fri-Sun 23-25 Oct 2015


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Interpreting the GFS Model Output


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Interpreting the ECMWF Model Output


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Chart Discussion: Fri 16-Oct-2015

Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion16Oct2015.pdf


Documents

Chart Discussion: Fri-16-October-2015 (Harvey Stern) Chart ... · Seasonal Outlook Oct-Dec 2015 Chart Discussion: Fri-09-October-2015 (Harvey Stern) A special update of the climate