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Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Chart Discussion: Fri 19-Feb-2016

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ECMWFUS GFS

Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 25-Dec-2015

OBSERVED ACCESS

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Seasonal Outlook

Part One

Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesEl Niño slowly weakening

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]

QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Seasonal Outlook Feb ‘16 - Apr ‘16

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

•Above average February to April rainfall favoured in central and

southern Australia, but drier than average in the far north.

•Temperatures more likely to be cooler than average in central regions

but warmer in the far north and far south.

•Climate influences include a record-warm Indian Ocean basin, a

weakening El Niño and warm sea surface temperatures around much of

the Australian coastline, particularly near Tasmania

Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne

… next 30 Days (statistically-based)

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Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Last Week

Part Two

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analyses : Sat-13-Feb to Thu-18-Feb

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-18-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-18-Feb-2016

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-19-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Next Week

Part Three

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Verifying Melbourne Forecasts

Max Temp

Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)

Rainfall Amount

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Fri 19-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 19-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sat 20-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 20-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sun 21-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sun 21-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Mon 22-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Mon 22-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Tue 23-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Tue 23-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Wed 24-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Wed 24-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Thu 25-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 26-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 26-Feb-2016 (+192 HRS)

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 27-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sun 28-Feb-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWF & Bureau Forecasts - Week 1

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Chart Discussion: Fri 19-Feb-2016

Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion19Feb2016.pdf

Chart Discussion: Fri-19-February-2016 (Harvey Stern)