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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015

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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

Leading to Christmas Day … GFS Model

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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

Leading to Christmas Day … ECMWF Model

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Seasonal Outlook

Part One

Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesThe 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. Some El Niño indicators are now

showing signs of easing. The El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]

QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Seasonal Outlook Jan ‘15 - Mar ‘16

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne

… next 30 Days (statistically-based)

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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Last Week

Part Two

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analyses : Sat-12-Dec to Thu-17-Dec

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-17-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-17-Dec-2015

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

OBSERVED ACCESS

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-18-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Next Week

Part Three

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Verifying Melbourne Forecasts[Updated to 31-Aug-2015]

Max Temp

Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)

Rainfall Amount

Peaks in skill coincide with

successful prediction of a group

of extreme events (2010/11: Rain;

2013/14: Max Temp)

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Fri 18-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-Dedember-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 18-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sat 19-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 19-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sun 20-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sun 20-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Mon 21-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Mon 21-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Tue 22-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Tue 22-Dec-2015

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Jet Streams: Wed 23-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Wed 23-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Thu 24-Dec-2015

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MSL Pressure: Fri 25-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 25-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 26-Dec-2015

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MSL Pressure: Sun 27-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015

Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion18Dec2015.pdf

Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)