Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015 · MSL Analyses : Sat-03-Dec to Thu-10-Dec Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern) 15 Southern Hemisphere: Thu-10-Dec-2015 ... MSL

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Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)

Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015

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Leading to Christmas Day- Multi-Model


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Christmas Day-15 Forecast Chart … ECMWF


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Christmas Day-15 Forecast Chart … GFS


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Seasonal Outlook

Part One



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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesThe 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. Some El Niño indicators are now

showing signs of easing. The El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.


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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]

QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES


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Seasonal Outlook Dec ‘15 - Feb ‘16

The summer outlook indicates below-average rainfall is likely

across the northwest and Cape York Peninsula, and wetter across

parts of the east. The daytime temperature outlook is patchy, with

warmer days likely in parts of the west and north, while parts of the

southeast are likely to be cooler. Overnight temperatures are likely

to be warmer across most of the country except the southeast.


Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne

… next 30 Days (statistically-based)

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Seasonal Outlook for Victorian Districts

… next three months (statistically-based)

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Last Week

Part Two


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MSL Analyses : Sat-03-Dec to Thu-10-Dec


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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-10-Dec-2015


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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-10-Dec-2015

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif


http://www.bom.gov.au/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 10-Dec-2015

OBSERVED


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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-11-Dec-2015


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Next Week

Part Three


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Verifying Melbourne Forecasts[Updated to 31-Aug-2015]

Max Temp

Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)

Rainfall Amount

Peaks in skill coincide with

successful prediction of a group

of extreme events (2010/11: Rain;

2013/14: Max Temp)


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Jet Streams: Fri 11-Dec-2015

Chart Discussion: Fri-11-Dedember-2015 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 11-Dec-2015


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Jet Streams: Sat 12-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Sat 12-Dec-2015


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Jet Streams: Sun 13-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Sun 13-Dec-2015


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Jet Streams: Mon 14-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Mon 14-Dec-2015


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Jet Streams: Tue 15-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Tue 15-Dec-2015


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Jet Streams: Wed 16-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Wed 16-Dec-2015


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MSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015


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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015


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Day 8-10 ACCESS Model: Fri-Sun 18-20 Dec ‘15


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Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion11Dec2015.pdf


Documents

Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015 · MSL Analyses : Sat-03-Dec to Thu-10-Dec Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern) 15 Southern Hemisphere: Thu-10-Dec-2015 ... MSL