Goulburn-Murray Water

Meeting of 16th December 2002, TATURA

Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook

Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy, Victoria)

Last 36 Months’ Rainfall

                                            

                                                           

Last 12 Months’ Rainfall

Last 3 Month’s Rainfall

Rainfall Deficiencies (8 months)

Rainfall Deficiencies (12 months)

El Niño and Rainfall

La Niña and Rainfall

SOI Values

Seasonal Weather and SOI(strength and direction of relationship)

(brown diamonds:rain; green squares:min temp; orange crosses:max temp

Wheat Yields and SOI

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

SST – Precipitation Relationship

SST – Temperature Relationship

Seasonal Forecast Accuracy(precipitation)

Rainfall Forecasts

Min Temp Forecasts

Max Temp Forecasts

El Niño Summary

• During the past week the real-time SOI has dropped further  to -13. 

• Nevertheless, the warm oceans in the central Pacific near the date line continue to show signs of cooling.

• Cool waters below the surface have extended into the central equatorial Pacific from the west, but these are still at depths greater than 100 m, undercutting the warm water.

• Of the 12 available model predictions from November only three indicate El Niño conditions at five months [April 2003]. 

• These predictions are broadly consistent with the observation that El Niño tends to break down inlate summer or autumn. 

Forecast Summary

• Only a 50/50 chance of above normal rainfall during summer 2002/2003.

• A slightly increased chance of below normal overnight temperatures.

• A slightly increased chance of above normal daytime temperatures.

• Given the history of El Niño events, a breakdown might be expected late in the summer or during the autumn.