CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/11/13/be21d597...2017/11/13 · Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185 Patrick Mann

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global

Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date 13 November 2017

Monday,13 November 2017

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.

CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE Eurocash (Hold, TP PLN34.00) - If not now, then when? Downgrading to Hold Eurocash - 3Q 2017 First look: weak results Telkom SA Ltd (Hold, TP ZAR49.00) - Growth requires capex Telkom SA Ltd (Hold, TP ZAR63.00) - Slight operating miss, capex-heavy growth the normal?

COMPANY UPDATE SAUDI ELECTRICITY - 3Q17 results and recent developments

LATAM Companies TARGET PRICE CHANGE Banco do Brasil (Buy, TP BRL41.00) - Modest downside risk to estimates, but still improving

COMPANY UPDATE Copa Holdings, S.A. (Buy, TP USD142.00) - Sep Q points to further margin expansion, improving macro B3 (Buy, TP BRL23.00) - 3Q17 weaker than expected on higher expenses

SECTOR UPDATE Metals & Mining Alert - Daily prices and news: China's winter capacity cuts to surpass 34mt

STRATEGY EM Daily - Big fish, small pond EM Sovereign Credit Weekly - Preserving gains Time to take profit for the year (and hide) - Time to take profit for the year Asset Allocation - After The Long Rally: S&P 500 Outlook Thematic Research - Next week...this week Trade Recommendation - Venezuela - Getting Ready for Potential Flat Trading DB Inflation Report - Weekly Inflation Update

MACRO Brazil Update - Inflation remains subdued EMEA Fixed Income - Time for steepeners and hedges Global Fixed Income Weekly - Oil prices, the Phillips curve and the ECB European Fixed Income Weekly - Oil prices, the Phillips curve and the ECB China macro - A big step to open up China’s financial sector US Economic Notes - What you need to know for the week ahead US Economic Perspectives - When do higher Treasury yields hurt growth? Estimating a neutral 10y yield

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Ooredoo Group ORDS QD 23.3 6.6 Dar Al Arkan ALARKAN AB 2.5 6.4 Industries Qatar IQCD QD 26.0 5.7 Qatar Electricity &

QEWS QD 48.6 5.6

Qatar National Bank QNBK QD 33.2 4.7 Magnitogorsk Steel MMK LI 10.1 3.1 Gulf Int'l Services GISS QD 4.2 2.6 Tekfen Holding TKFEN TI 3.8 2.4 Northam NHM SJ 3.7 2.2 NLMK NLMK LI 22.3 2.1 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Eurocash EUR PW 8.2 -13.4 Telkom SA Ltd TKG SJ 3.5 -7.2 Al Tayyar ALTAYYAR AB 6.8 -5.2 Steinhoff SNH SJ 3.9 -5.1 Arabtec Holding ARTC DB 0.7 -5.1 Massmart MSM SJ 7.6 -3.9 OTP Bank OTP HB 37.6 -3.5 Drake & Scull DSI DB 0.5 -3.4 Richemont CFR SJ 8.7 -3.3 TMK TMKS LI 5.6 -3.3

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Avianca Holdings

AVH US 7.1 2.0 MercadoLibre MELI US 270.9 1.7 Megacable MEGACPO

4.2 1.4

CCU CCU UN 27.5 1.3 Concha y Toro VCO US 35.0 0.0 Kimberly-Clark de

KIMBERA MM 1.7 0.0

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF UN 68.7 -0.1 Arca Continental AC* MM 6.5 -0.2 Petrobras PETR3 BS 5.4 -0.2 Volaris VLRS US 9.7 -0.2 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Gentera GENTERA*

1.0 -4.6

BRF S.A. BRFS US 12.6 -4.3 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.8 -3.9 Natura NATU3 BS 8.7 -3.7 B2W BTOW3 BS 5.4 -3.6 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 9.6 -3.3 GOL S.A. GOL US 20.5 -3.3 CBD-GPA PCAR4 BZ 21.9 -3.1 Lojas Renner LREN3 BZ 10.3 -3.0 LATAM Airlines

LTM US 12.9 -2.8

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

Distributed on: 13/11/2017 07:08:41 GMT

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Russia / CIS LatamGeorge Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Ivan Kachkovski Banks/Financials +44 207 5411735 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Tomasz Krukowski Consumer +48 22 579 8732 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063 Marcel Moraes Retail +1 904 271-2470

Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949

Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 415 262 2028South Africa Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191

Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267 GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks/Financials +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732George Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013

George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774

Middle EastCE3 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Kazim Andac Banks/Financials +90 212 3190315 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Ivan Kachkovski Banks/Financials +44 207 5411735 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Tomasz Krukowski Consumer +48 22 579 8732

Alizerra Kharazi Economist +44 207 5450083Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Elina Ribakova Chief Economist +44 207 5471340

Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864

Source: Deutsche Bank

ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES Alibaba (BABA.N, Buy) – Execution shines on ninth Singles Day (Han Joon Kim) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2280-46FB/221804639/a01d420e-e624-4975-9e30-680cc73b5f5e_604.pdf AAC Technologies (2018.HK, Buy) – Showing no sign of slowdown (Birdy Lu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/876-8CCD/87884707/0900b8c08dce8245.pdf

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Metropolitan Bank (MBT.PS, Buy) – Under-performance overdone? Upgrading to Buy (Rafael Garchitorena) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/942-ABC6/85013799/0900b8c08db379b2.pdf

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES CITS (601888.SS, Buy) – Top pick and our conviction Buy (Tallan Zhou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2067-1938/87245568/0900b8c08dcaf325.pdf SUN ART RETAIL GROUP (6808.HK, Buy) – Focus more on store efficiency rather than store opening; Buy (Anne Ling) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/917-8059/222570878/2acc06cc-f857-4b9d-9458-375bdcaadb8c_604.pdf PICC Group (1339.HK, Hold) – Lifting target price; Maintain Hold (Esther Chwei) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/854-1450/84899176/043c22f6-184e-487c-877a-a1296b35fd66_604.pdf ASKUL (2678.T, Hold) – Forecast revision: Returning to leaner operation (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/229-200A/75622306/0900b8c08dcdf8f4.pdf Industrial & Inf Fund Inv. (3249.T, Hold) – Lowering target price from ¥550,000 to ¥510,000 (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/262-78E1/81046177/0900b8c08dc473b0.pdf Nexon (3659.T, Buy) – 3Q17 - still going strong and more room to run (Han Joon Kim) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/683-4F62/86397229/8c65dc1c-1209-4a2f-a27d-a44ce9c77027_604.pdf NTT (9432.T, Hold) – 2Q solid profit, but legacy weakness a worry (Peter Milliken) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/529-3D26/86510590/11a3f1e3-af6f-4fe8-a327-9f79e0d7239c_604.pdf Terumo (4543.T, Hold) – Growth acceleration helped by acquisitions and FX (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1020-3390/83956045/f93cdd72-3be5-4dad-a8b2-bc7853ce38cf_604.pdf News Corporation (NWS.AX, Buy) – 1Q18 Results - Impressive quarter driven by News & Info Services (Entcho Raykovski) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/708-8809/85322073/0900b8c08dcdf446.pdf REA Group Ltd (REA.AX, Hold) – 1Q18 Results - Strong growth but will it last? (Entcho Raykovski) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/741-9EF6/84855739/0900b8c08dcddca5.pdf Z Energy (ZEL.NZ, Buy) – FY1H18: Improving profit mix (Grant Swanepoel) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/583-24AB/78961727/0900b8c08dce633a.pdf Adani Power (ADAN.BO, Sell) – Cash flows could improve at the margin… (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/541-3627/222171749/0900b8c08dd04abe.pdf Axis Bank (AXBK.BO, Buy) – Big capital raise boosts confidence; near-term overhang fades (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/608-9897/91262668/0900b8c08dcf34e9.pdf Bank of India (BOI.BO, Sell) – 2Q FY18: Better quarter on asset quality but a long way to g (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/607-93E6/88236425/0900b8c08dcec30d.pdf BPCL (BPCL.BO, Buy) – Strong operating performance (Harshad Katkar) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/601-0B55/91906539/9c74df79-b417-40c0-91e3-3a7c2ad15af5_604.pdf Larsen and Toubro Ltd. (LART.BO, Buy) – Weak 1H drags order outlook; execution & margins drive upgrades (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/501-7259/221387728/0900b8c08dd069b6.pdf Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO, Buy) – Strong results; improvement in Auto business margins is a +ve surprise (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/551-E6D8/221688529/0900b8c08dd142d9.pdf Motherson Sumi Systems (MOSS.NS, Hold) – Robust revenue growth continues; maintaining Hold on valuation (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/551-9073/92479274/0900b8c08dced43b.pdf Oil India Limited (OILI.BO, Buy) – Robust crude price should support valuations (Harshad Katkar) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/602-632E/91257530/f6562bb3-8b51-4fb5-a738-7d6f1ee85a63_604.pdf

13 November 2017


Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES State Bank of India (SBI.BO, Buy) – 2QFY18: Better on asset quality; slippages decline; coverage increases (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/617-2ECF/95718640/0900b8c08dcdb089.pdf

MACRO/STRATEGY Asset Allocation – After The Long Rally: S&P 500 Outlook (Binky Chadha) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9969-F967/95554361/6e3085f5-97ed-4d78-96de-e7358dede5d9_604.pdf DBDaily – Equities struggle as bond yields lift; US & UK CPI reports the focus this week… (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9276-A38B/221296557/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2017-11-12_ea13f170-c596-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf Asia Economics Monthly – Push for gradual rate hikes (Juliana Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8142-CF66/79963995/DB_AsiaEconMthly_2017-11-10_0900b8c08dcaeb44.pdf Asia Local Markets Weekly – Roiled by oil, not so much... (Sameer Goel) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/7531-50F8/85949871/DB_ALMW_2017-11-10.pdf DB Inflation Report – Weekly Inflation Update (Markus Heider) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/12537-209D/96605068/DB_Inflation_2017-11-10_76c78bdc-c59b-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf China macro – A big step to open up China’s financial sector (Zhiwei Zhang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6685-8E2A/84419428/aae0eeba-a9b6-4685-b469-810fa0fe6e0b_604.pdf Japan Fixed Income Weekly – BOJ ETF purchases providing very strong support for equities (Makoto Yamashita) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1020-A0A2/81020662/ba2b5580-c513-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf Data Flash – Australia - RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (Tim Baker) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/975-2452/79052402/DB_DataFlash_2017-11-10_0900b8c08dcea7be.pdf Thailand Strategy – A week in review: Holiday gifts come early to Thailand (Joe Phanich) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/523-D408/85999759/0900b8c08dcead6a.pdf Indo Strategy – Weekly Wrap (Heriyanto Irawan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/789-E578/89886422/0900b8c08dce8a5c.pdf US Economic Notes – What you need to know for the week ahead (Brett Ryan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6788-830F/219788865/DB_USEconDly_2017-11-12_GDPBD00000316258.pdf US Economic Perspectives – When do higher Treasury yields hurt growth? Estimating a neutral 10y yield (Matthew Luzzetti) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/7538-6841/85023910/1a7a9adc-c491-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf European Equity Strategy – Sales exposure atlas (Andreas Bruckner) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/5409-C259/79971853/eee4d773-90f2-48df-8480-7ccd3bf3b5d3_604.pdf

HONG KONG / CHINA China Passenger Vehicle Sector – October sales YoY growth paused, with even tougher comps ahead (Vincent Ha) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/768-376B/84731319/5b1b8746-bfae-11e7-a788-17efe23f6f57_604.pdf Giordano (0709.HK, Buy) – Steady improvement with network expansion opportunity (Anne Ling) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/810-2C77/79457669/d774a98c-55fd-473a-8e8b-7fcf107d58c1_604.pdf Macau – 3Q wrap: Margin surprise bodes well for 2018 (Karen Tang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/890-B7CE/86168067/a08cb95c-c086-11e7-a788-17efe23f6f57_604.pdf Sector Update – China trip takeaways - remain hopeful for 4Q17 (James Kan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/792-17B5/91569792/9207ae85-bb7d-4018-95db-775ce1982ecb_604.pdf Wharf (0004.HK, Hold) – Management discusses post-demerger strategy and prospects (Jason Ching) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/716-D4EB/220981739/0900b8c08dcf2ec7.pdf

JAPAN Advantest (6857.T, Buy) – Key takeaways from US NDR (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/524-2938/82565018/0900b8c08dcdbc28.pdf Bank Sector – Considering card loans: will the customer shift happen? (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/535-BE3D/75941412/0900b8c08dce79df.pdf Citizen Watch (7762.T, Hold) – Results: 2Q redresses 1Q unevenness (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/531-F1CE/220021140/0900b8c08dcedb8c.pdf

Concordia FG (7186.T, Hold) – Slight increase in full-year guidance (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/535-FDF9/97099965/0900b8c08dcf02f9.pdf Convenience store industry – October monthly sales trends (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/230-DC0E/86879431/0900b8c08dcf0eb8.pdf Don Quijote Holdings (7532.T, Hold) – October monthly sales trends (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/231-A22B/87593454/0900b8c08dcf2211.pdf Komatsu (6301.T, Hold) – October Komtrax operating hours: continues flat overall (Takeshi Kitaura) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/224-7437/83699118/0900b8c08dcf020a.pdf K'S Holdings (8282.T, Hold) – October monthly sales trends (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/227-1AED/86361361/0900b8c08dcf321b.pdf Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T, Hold) – 2Q results: neutral first impression (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/261-E52C/82409094/0900b8c08dce77f5.pdf MonotaRO (3064.T, Buy) – October sales, new customer numbers (Junichi Shimizu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/247-9F03/83659207/0900b8c08dcaa1a1.pdf Resona HD (8308.T, Hold) – Full-year guidance raised (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/536-05CF/89739222/0900b8c08dcf0b20.pdf Retail Sector – Aoyama Trading 1H FY3/18 results: Implications for the sector (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/230-E2EA/89339226/0900b8c08dcf4219.pdf Taisei (1801.T, Sell) – 2Q results: neutral first impression (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/231-791A/82784671/0900b8c08dce7708.pdf Toshiba (6502.T, Hold) – Time limits gradually approaching (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/538-9F10/77363979/0900b8c08dce066a.pdf Toyo Tire (5105.T, Buy) – 3Q first impression: CoE downgrade, but core continues delivering (Gordon Heaton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/544-A9EC/87109401/0900b8c08dcedf8f.pdf

AUSTRALIA Australian Banking Sector – The Bank Vault: Valuation charts (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/657-642D/84047470/0900b8c08dce6baa.pdf Infratil (IFT.NZ, Hold) – FY1H18: Water up, wind down (Grant Swanepoel) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/566-375F/82871225/0900b8c08dcebe63.pdf Retail Alert – NZ cards data for October (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/640-EAC1/74479560/a61803e2-bfb2-11e7-a788-17efe23f6f57_604.pdf The Oil & Gas Column – STO Investor Day - Positioning for Growth (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/575-9F7E/76940837/0900b8c08dcd9c16.pdf

KOREA/TAIWAN Bizlink (3665.TW, Buy) – 3Q17 results was inline with our expectation (Frank Lin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/596-F2E3/219333084/0900b8c08dcf31d2.pdf Eclat Textile (1476.TW, Buy) – 3Q17 takeaway: unchanged outlook but more information (John Chou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/611-5CD8/84569728/0900b8c08dced084.pdf Giant Manufacturing (9921.TW, Sell) – 3Q17 EBIT another miss to consensus; our concerns intensified (John Chou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/636-1A78/219916230/0900b8c08dd15902.pdf Hanwha Life (088350.KS, Hold) – Steady underwriting improvement (Emily Yi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/807-655E/223073743/0900b8c08dce91ea.pdf Korea Wireless – Warning: social consultative committee on telco tariff opens today (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/879-3E88/79096681/0900b8c08dcea680.pdf Taiwan Financials– Oct'17 earnings: seasonally weaker, but YTD earnings still trending ahead (Franco Lam) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/860-1775/88829281/0900b8c08dc99694.pdf Tong Hsing (6271.TW, Buy) – 3Q17 results beat (Grace Hsu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/621-4893/86453694/0900b8c08dccc916.pdf Wistron (3231.TW, Buy) – An expected 3Q17 miss; outlook remains positive (James Chiu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/599-6639/91732164/0900b8c08dce8652.pdf

JAPAN

13 November 2017



Aurobindo (ARBN.NS, Buy) – Strong growth outlook remains intact (Kartik Mehta) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/543-F4B7/82196838/0901cc8e-c5c3-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf India Consumer – GST - Eighth impression (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/669-9C98/87037407/0900b8c08dcf0108.pdf Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI.BO, Buy) – 5% GST without input credit - a minor headwind to tackle (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/693-3AB1/88595374/0900b8c08dcf41b2.pdf MRF (MRF.BO, Buy) – Returning to margin leadership (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/546-2F26/220054422/17a8323f-8b46-4ae2-a6d6-cbe6b1229ec6_604.pdf

ASEAN Aurobindo (ARBN.NS, Buy) – Strong growth outlook remains intact (Kartik Mehta) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/543-F4B7/82196838/0901cc8e-c5c3-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf India Consumer – GST - Eighth impression (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/669-9C98/87037407/0900b8c08dcf0108.pdf Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI.BO, Buy) – 5% GST without input credit - a minor headwind to tackle (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/693-3AB1/88595374/0900b8c08dcf41b2.pdf MRF (MRF.BO, Buy) – Returning to margin leadership (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/546-2F26/220054422/17a8323f-8b46-4ae2-a6d6-cbe6b1229ec6_604.pdf

APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus

UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess Global Quant Conference 2017 13-15 Nov @Hong Kong dbAccess Thailand SET Corporate Day - 22-23 Nov @Singapore dbAccess Taiwan Technology Supply Chain Corporate Day - 29 Nov@Taipei, Taiwan dbAccess China Conference - 8-12@Beijing, China

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EPS changes

NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA

Telkom SA Ltd South Africa 5.5 5.3 -3.7 6.9 -23.2 5.3 4.9 -7.7 8.3 -41.3 4.7 Hold Hold 63.0 49.0 -22.2

Eurocash Poland 1.2 1.0 -16.9 2.3 -57.0 1.5 1.3 -19.1 2.7 -53.1 2.0 1.7 -18.6 Buy Hold 42.0 34.0 -19.0

LATAM

Copa Holdings, S.A. Panama 8.4 8.5 +0.6 11.1 -23.8 8.5 10.1 +19.4 13.7 -26.1 9.0 9.0 -0.0 15.2 -40.8 Buy Buy 137.0 142.0 +3.6

Banco do Brasil Brazil 3.9 3.7 -4.1 5.1 -27.5 4.6 4.3 -5.4 6.4 -32.3 5.4 5.1 -5.2 Buy Buy 39.0 41.0 +5.1

ASIA

PICC Group China 0.4 0.4 +17.6 0.4 -6.3 0.4 0.4 +11.5 0.4 0.4 +15.9 Hold Hold 4.2 4.5 +7.1

CITS China 1.3 1.5 +11.2 1.6 1.8 +10.0 1.9 2.1 +10.4 Buy Buy 40.0 55.0 +37.5

Larsen and Toubro Ltd. India 49.6 54.5 +10.0 93.5 -41.7 56.0 59.2 +5.7 63.1 70.0 +11.0 Buy Buy 1,350.0 1,475.0 +9.3

Oil India Limited India 31.3 34.3 +9.8 62.5 -45.1 32.3 35.8 +11.0 37.0 Buy Buy 300.0 375.0 +25.0

Adani Power India -5.6 -5.2 +8.2 -0.3 -

-4.0 -4.0 +1.1 7.4 -153.7 -2.3 Sell Sell 24.0 27.0 +12.5

China Everbright Int'l China 0.8 0.8 +6.3 0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.0 +14.0 1.0 1.1 +8.9 Buy Buy 12.7 13.5 +6.3

Gudang Garam Indonesia 3,816.9 3,999.5 +4.8 3,790.8 5.5 4,227.8 4,599.4 +8.8 5,155.8 Buy Buy 81,000. 95,000.

+17.3

Mahindra & Mahindra India 64.3 67.1 +4.4 75.9 77.2 +1.8 89.4 90.9 +1.6 Buy Buy 1,580.0 1,680.0 +6.3

Motherson Sumi Systems India 10.4 10.7 +3.4 13.0 14.3 +10.2 17.2 Hold Hold 253.0 315.0 +24.5

Guangdong Investment China 0.7 0.7 +2.9 0.8 -13.6 0.7 0.8 +9.7 0.7 0.8 +5.1 Buy Buy 13.5 13.2 -2.2

Beijing Enterprises Water China 0.5 0.5 +2.1 0.4 22.3 0.6 0.6 +0.5 0.7 0.7 -1.7 Buy Buy 7.4 7.4

Bizlink Taiwan 10.3 10.3 +0.5 12.2 12.4 +1.1 15.5 15.7 +1.4 Buy Buy 320.0 320.0

Sino Biopharmaceutical Hong Kong 0.3 0.3 +0.4 0.5 -40.2 0.3 0.3 +5.0 0.4 0.4 +3.4 Buy Buy 10.0 13.0 +30.0

BPCL India 46.1 46.2 +0.2 52.7 53.0 +0.5 57.9 Buy Buy 610.0 625.0 +2.5

Aurobindo Pharma India 46.7 46.7 -0.0 49.3 49.3 +0.0 49.5 55.3 +11.7 Buy Buy 888.0 888.0

Tong Hsing Taiwan 5.8 5.8 -0.2 7.7 7.6 -1.3 9.7 9.7 +0.2 Buy Buy 150.0 150.0

China Everbright

China 0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.6 +0.2 0.7 0.7 +6.7 Buy Buy 7.7 7.9 +2.6

SIIC Environment China 0.2 0.2 -0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.5 Buy Buy 0.6 0.6 -3.2

HM Sampoerna Indonesia 113.0 111.9 -1.0 127.5 124.8 -2.1 136.6 Buy Buy 5,000.0 4,400.0 -12.0

Giant Manufacturing Taiwan 6.8 6.5 -4.1 13.8 -52.5 7.5 7.5 +0.8 7.9 8.0 +0.8 Sell Sell 125.0 125.0

AAC Technologies China 4.7 4.5 -4.5 3.1 45.0 6.1 6.4 +5.0 7.5 8.0 +6.2 Buy Buy 165.0 180.0 +9.1

SUN ART RETAIL GROUP China 0.3 0.3 -5.2 0.3 -10.9 0.3 0.3 -7.2 0.4 0.4 -6.5 Buy Buy 8.1 8.7 +8.1

China Everbright Water China 0.2 0.2 -6.4 0.2 0.2 +0.7 0.3 0.2 -7.0 Buy Buy 0.5 0.5

Dongjiang Environmental-

China 0.5 0.5 -7.0 0.6 0.6 -9.9 0.8 0.7 -16.8 Sell Sell 13.3 12.0 -10.0

Dongjiang Environmental-

China 0.5 0.5 -7.0 0.6 0.6 -9.9 0.8 0.7 -16.8 Buy Buy 14.7 13.6 -7.5

Wistron Taiwan 1.9 1.5 -20.7 3.2 -53.9 3.2 2.8 -11.6 3.7 3.5 -6.1 Buy Buy 39.8 36.0 -9.5

Axis Bank India 20.2 50.8 -60.3 29.2 62.8 -53.5 38.2 Buy Buy 575.0 620.0 +7.8

Bank of India India 9.3 60.0 -84.5 15.2 74.0 -79.5 26.7 Sell Sell 110.0 120.0 +9.1

Source: Bloomberg Finance

13 November 2017



Solar Portfolio

10-Nov-17

Companies RIC Buy/Sell Promoted Entry Price Current Price Performance

CE3

X5 RETAIL GROUP PJPq.L Buy 19/10/2017 40.26 41.06 1.99%

MENA

TELECOM EGYPT ETEL.CA Buy 01/10/2017 12.95 13.59 4.94%

NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 2,961.00 7.63%

SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY 7010.SE Buy 01/10/2017 70.50 69.90 -0.85%

HERFY 6002.SE Buy 23/10/2017 46.74 44.45 -4.89%

GULF INT'L SERVICES GISS.QA Buy 01/10/2017 19.99 15.60 -21.96%

Russia

TRANSNEFT TRNF_p.MM Buy 01/10/2017 177,400.00 182,100.00 2.65%

SASOL SOLJ.J Sell 27/10/2017 40,874.81 44,100.00 -7.89%

GAZPROM GAZP.MM Buy 23/10/2017 126.92 132.40 4.31%

NOVATEK NVTKq.L Sell 23/10/2017 118.29 116.80 1.26%

South Africa

STANDARD BANK SBKJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 15,781.00 16,766.00 6.24%

BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP BGAJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 13,900.00 14,272.00 2.68%

HYPROP HYPJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 10,572.00 10,729.00 1.49%

Turkey

AKBANK AKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 9.40 9.60 2.13%

VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS Sell 01/10/2017 6.27 5.80 7.50%

YAPI KREDI BANK YKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 4.32 4.48 3.70%

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

10 November 2017

Retail

Eurocash

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 9 Nov 2017 (PLN) 34.48

Price Target (PLN) 34.00

52-week range (PLN) 41.75 - 30.50

RecommendationChange

Emerging EuropePoland

Company

Eurocash

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker

EUR.WA EUR PW WSE EUR

Date10 November 2017

If not now, then when? Downgradingto HoldDowngrading to Hold; target price reduced to PLN 34 from PLN 42Industry macro for Polish grocery trading appears to be the best it has been inseveral years, and if Eurocash is not able to deliver decent financial performancein such an environment now, we wonder when the company will be able to doso. We understand Eurocash is more of a restructuring/business repositioningcase rather than a pure play for the industry macro, but we had at least expectedearnings stabilization, which is not being delivered. After poor 3Q results, wereduce our 2017-19E EBITDA by 8-10%. We still like the strategy of M&A-drivenrepositioning into retail, but the share of that business line in the company'srevenues is still too small to change the overall picture. We downgrade ourrecommendation to Hold from Buy and reduce our target price to PLN 34 fromPLN 42. Eurocash trades at our 2018E EV/EBITDA of 10x, at a discount tohistorical levels, but this is in the context of a second consecutive year of earningsdisappointment.

Organic growth well below expectationsEurocash delivered very poor earnings in 3Q 2017. Sales increased by 7.4% YoY,of which consolidation of acquired assets added 6.0% while organic expansiononly gained 1.4%. We view the latter figure as disappointing in the context of 4.6%food inflation in Poland in 3Q. We understand the company's argument about lackof inflation in wholesale prices as well as its high exposure to the tobacco andalcohol segment. Yet, in terms of broader macro developments, we have difficultyimagining that consumer macro in Poland might be even better. Thus, if Eurocashcannot take advantage of current macro development, what else does it need?

Pressure on margins returnsEurocash's 3Q EBITDA declined by 18% YoY and was short of our expectationsby 16%. Independent clients within the wholesale division (Cash & Carry andtobacco/ impulse goods business) are entirely responsible for the EBITDAcontraction. The company claims investment in prices as the reason for poorprofitability, but we note that it did not boost top line. Integrated clients wholesalebusiness performed better, but flat YoY EBITDA is also below what we expectin such an industry macro. The company's other businesses (retail/ projects)performed in line with expectations, but they are too small to change the overallnegative picture.

8-10% cut to our EBITDA forecastsAfter weak 3Q results, we reduce our medium-term earnings forecasts: 2017EEBITDA by 8% to PLN 418m and 2018E by 10% to PLN 467m. The cuts in net profit

Tomasz Krukowski, CFA

Research Analyst

+44-20-7541-2197

Key changes

TP 42.00 to 34.00 ↓ -19.0%

Rating Buy to Hold ↓Source: Deutsche Bank

Price/price relative

Eurocash WIG 20 Index (Rebased)

2015 2016 20170

25

50

75

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute -8.8 0.8 -9.6

WIG 20 Index -0.8 2.9 38.4Source: Deutsche Bank

13 November 2017CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9

10 November 2017

Retail

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 9 Nov 2017 (PLN) 34.48

Price Target (PLN) 42.00

52-week range (PLN) 41.75 - 30.50

ResultsEmerging EuropePoland

Company

Eurocash


EUR.WA EUR PW WSE EUR


3Q 2017 First look: weak results

Miss at each line of the P&LWe did not expect Eurocash to report strong results in 3Q 2017, but the figuresthat the company delivered are just poor with the miss visible at each line ofthe P&L. Sales dynamic of just 7% YoY implies almost no organic expansion.EBITDA declined by 18% YoY to PLN 101m. The latter was 16% and 21% belowour and market expectations. We realize the Eurocash is a restructuring case nowrather than just pure play for the industry macro, nevertheless the company'sperformance in 3Q is clearly disappointing.

Organic top-line dynamics at only 2%Eurocash sales expanded by 7% YoY in 3Q 2017. According to our estimate,organic sales growth rate was only at 2% YoY (the remainder is the effect ofM&As) which we view as disappointing if put in context of a 4.6% food inflation.Wholesale distribution to independent and business clients reported zero growthand almost entire organic growth was driven by the "Fresh' project.

EBITDA down by 18% YoYThe company's EBITDA of PLN 101m missed our expectations by 16% and wasbelow market consensus collected by PAP by 21%. Weak results were deliveredespecially by distribution to independent clients business line (negative delta inEBITDA of PLN 22m YoY) and the company claims investments in prices in cash& carry, tobacco and impulse products were the reasons for lower profitability.EBITDA in other segments was in line with expectations.

Full year targets increasingly ambitiousIn 9M 2017 the company delivered EBITDA of PLN 259m implying a 7% declineYoY . Although 4Q is traditionally the strongest, in light of weak 3Q performance,our FY forecast of 3% YoY growth to PLN 452m becomes increasingly ambitious.Eurocash management will host a conference call todat at 13:00 UK time, +442030432440, PIN 33485107#

Figure 1: Eurocash: 3Q 2017 resultsPLNm 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17 2Q 17 3Q 17 YoY 3Q 17E

Revenues 4,764.0 5,340.8 5,761.2 5,353.9 5,193.2 6,084.3 6,187.6 7% 6,563.9

EBITDA 47.3 110.3 123.2 159.6 37.2 120.1 101.5 -18% 121.3

margin 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.0% 0.7% 2.0% 1.6% - 1.8%

EBIT 6.6 70.0 81.1 116.5 -7.0 -39.8 58.2 -28% 76.3

Net profit 1.2 52.5 58.7 66.9 -14.9 -63.1 35.7 -39% 52.0

Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank

Tomasz Krukowski, CFA

Research Analyst

+44-20-7541-2197


Eurocash WIG 20 Index (Rebased)

2015 2016 20170

25

50

75


Absolute -8.8 0.8 -9.6

WIG 20 Index -0.8 2.9 38.4Source: Deutsche Bank



Rating

Hold Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

Telecom

Company

Telkom SA Ltd Date

13 November 2017

Forecast Change

Growth requires capex

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker TKGJ.J TKG SJ JNB TKGJ

ADR Ticker ISIN TLKGY US8796031081

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Mar 31 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue (ZARm) 41,704 41,339 41,583 42,032

EBITDA (ZARm) 10,875 10,129 9,906 9,956

PBT DB (ZARm) 4,545 3,955 3,577 3,422

DB EPS (ZAR) 7.07 5.29 4.87 4.66

OLD DB EPS (ZAR) 7.07 5.49 5.28 –

% Change 0.0% -3.7% -7.7% –

DB EPS growth (%) 122.2 -25.1 -8.0 -4.3

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 9.2 9.5 10.4 10.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2

DPS (ZAR) 4.22 3.18 2.92 2.80

Yield (%) 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.5

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2 Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses

the year end close

Value unlock not a near-term evvent, back to basics on the share

Price at 10 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 50.50

Price Target (ZAR) 49.00

52-week range (ZAR) 80.03 - 50.50

John Kim

Research Analyst

(+27) 11 775-7013

[email protected]

Key changes

TP 63.00 to 49.00 ↓ -22.2%



40

50

60

70

80

90

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

Telkom SA Ltd

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)


Absolute -9.9 -22.1 -19.0

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 3.7 7.3 16.1


We believe TKG has traded on its expected recovery and execution. The company has largely delivered on restructuring/cost reductions, buildout of its NGN network and breakeven targets for mobile. We continue to see two capex-heavy years where the company will deploy infrastructure to drive mobile data revenues and provide fibre for both business and consumer fixed-lines. This, in turn, should reduce cash conversion ratios for the company. key questions are what are the longer-term prospects and return from these investments. We maintain our HOLD recommendation due to share overhang and limited near-term impact from value unlock within Gyro.

New numbers post-H1FY18 results – new FY18 DHEPS of R5.29 / DPS of R3.18 We forecast FY18 DHEPS of R5.29 (was R5.49) and FY19 of R4.87 with DPS of R3.18 and R2.92, respectively. We see cash conversion trending worse as capex intensity looks significant given the group’s ambitions, coupled with slight decreases in its returns profile absent better margins. New business is EBITDA additive but margin dilutive, with management guidance suggesting a drop in group EBITDA for FY18. Success in both fibre and mobile are positives but small in context and capital intensive. We see upside from Gyro (cR5 per TKG share) but don’t see the value unlock as certain (not in our base case).

We value TKG at R49 per share (from R63). HOLD Our target price for Telkom is calculated using a 50%/50% weighted methodology based on a 12-month fwd P/E multiple of 10.8x and a DCF using FY18 estimates. Our price target is R49 (from R63). We maintain our HOLD recommendation based on valuation, share overhang and limited near-term impact from value unlock within Gyro. Upside risks include better-than-expected margins, strategic/transformative acquisitions, and better cost reductions. Downside risks include severe margin erosion in core connectivity products, poor return on recent capex and changing regulatory condition in South Africa. See pp. 3, 7–10.



Deutsche BankMarkets Research

Rating

Hold Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

Telecom

Company

Telkom SA Ltd Date

10 November 2017

Results

Slight operating miss, capex-heavy growth the normal?

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker TKGJ.J TKG SJ JNB TKGJ

ADR Ticker ISIN TLKGY US8796031081


Year End Mar 31 2017A 2018E 2019E

Revenue (ZARm) 41,704 42,983 43,931

EBITDA (ZARm) 10,875 10,182 10,156

PBT DB (ZARm) 4,545 3,985 3,920

DB EPS (ZAR) 7.07 5.49 5.28

DB EPS growth (%) 122.2 -22.3 -3.9

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 9.2 9.8 10.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.1 3.2

DPS (ZAR) 4.22 3.30 3.17

Yield (%) 6.5 6.1 5.9

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2 Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses

the year end close

H1FY18 results underpin challenging top-line growth, margins coming down

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.

Price at 9 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 53.95

Price Target (ZAR) 63.00

52-week range (ZAR) 80.03 - 52.24

John Kim

Research Analyst

(+27) 11 775-7013

[email protected]


40

50

60

70

80

90

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

Telkom SA Ltd

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)


Absolute -4.9 -16.8 -14.8

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 4.1 6.9 17.4


TKG has traded on its expected recovery and execution. The company has largely delivered on restructuring/cost reductions, build-out of its NGN network and breakeven targets for mobile. We see two capex-heavy years where the company will deploy infrastructure to drive mobile data revenues and provide fibre for both business and consumer fixed-lines. This, in turn, should reduce cash conversion ratios for the company. The company needs to deliver revenue growth as incremental revenue could come through at lower marginal contribution and higher D&A charges. Hold on overhang issues.

Slightly weaker-than-expected H1FY18 results – numbers under review Telkom delivered H1FY18 DHEPS of R2.99 (down 7.2% yr/yr). Group revenue was down 0.6% yr/yr to R20.1bn (c.3% below DBe). Fixed revenue declined by 5% to R12.6bn impacted by lower voice revenue (-8%) and fixed data (-1%). Mobile revenue grew 28% to R3.4bn driven by data services (+60%). BCX revenue declined by 3% to R3.7bn. EBITDA shrunk 2% yr/yr to R5.2bn (c.3% below DBe) at a margin of 25.9% (DBe: 25.7%, H1-17 of 26.2%). H1FY18 net earnings was down 6% yr/yr to R1.7bn (c.4% below DBe). TKG H1FY18 dividend of R1.18 (c40% payout). TKG cut its FY18 guidance for revenue growth from mid-single digit to flat but did not change its guidance for EBITDA margin of 23%-25% and capital intensity of 17%-20% (H1FY18: 20%). H1FY18 results reinforce our view that revenue growth is weak with EBITDA margin underpinned by further cost cutting. Corporate tax rate is materially different from FY18 (vs. last year). Group capex increased by 9% yr/yr to R4.0bn (in-line DBe) with capital intensity of 20% (high-end of guidance/line with DBe). TKG remained unlevered with net debt of R4.8bn and net debt/EBITDA of 0.4x.

We value TKG at R63 per share. HOLD Our target price for Telkom is calculated using a 50%/50% weighted methodology based on a 12-month fwd P/E multiple of 10.8x and a 3.5x EV/EBITDA multiple using FY18 estimates. Upside risks include better-than-expected margins, strategic/transformative acquisitions and better cost reductions. Downside risks include severe margin erosion in core connectivity products, poor return on capex and changing regulatory condition in SA.

Distributed on: 10/11/2017 12:30:54 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c



Emerging Markets Saudi Arabia

IG Corporate Credit Utilities

Company

SAUDI ELECTRICITY Date 10 November 2017

3Q17 results and recent developments

Himanshu Porwal

Research Analyst

(+44) 20 75474234

[email protected]

Strong operating profitability and healthy liquidity Saudi Electricity Company (SECO) reported headline 3Q17 financial results earlier this week reflecting strong operating performance and healthy liquidity. Top line earnings were weak as 3Q17 revenues declined slightly (-1.3% YoY) and 9M17 revenues were flat YoY due to lower electricity sales on account of shift in sales mix. However, this was more than compensated by strong cost discipline and special measures (cancellation of municipalities’ fees) which drove 3Q17 and 9M17 reported EBITDA up by 8.5% and 42.5% YoY respectively. EBITDA margin also boosted resultantly, expanding 520bps YoY to 57.2% for 3Q17. Looking further into cost dynamics, 9M17 fuel costs declined by 6.5% YoY and operational and maintenance cost was down 13.1% YoY. This was partially offset by increase in power purchase cost due to higher output from IPPs generations. 9M17 EBITDA growth was also significantly boosted by a special measure including reversal of accrued historical municipalities’ fees of SAR6.1bn following a royal decree to cancel municipalities’ fees in Feb-2017. Excluding the aforementioned one-off item, 3Q17 and 9M17 EBITDA growth would still have been solid at 7.2% and 8.9% respectively. 3Q17 reported net profit grew 6.8% YoY (excl. one off +4.4% YoY) to SAR5.3bn while 9M17 net profit almost doubled YoY to SAR12.4bn (excl. one-off +1%).

Cash flow update: 9M17 Cash flow from operations (CFO) increased by a healthy 30% YoY to SAR26.8bn. This was mainly driven by improved working capital management driven by lower inventory, accounts payable and prepaid expenses. Capex programme continued in line with SECO’s commitment totaling SAR32.1bn in 9M17. Overall liquidity improved significantly, with gross cash position more than doubling to SAR2.8bn as of end 9M17.

Recent developments –Potential stake sale and Fitch comments In late October, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and SoftBank Vision Fund (SBVF) signed a non-binding MOU to jointly develop (through SECO) 3GW solar generation capacity in Saudi Arabia in 2018. The MOU further states that parties involved will evaluate the possibility of SBVF taking a significant equity stake in SECO. This could result in reducing the government’s stake in SECO from the present 74.3% direct stake (81.24% indirect including 6.93% of Saudi Aramco). However, the MOU further states that the Government of Saudi Arabia will continue to be the controlling shareholder in SECO and provide it with same level of support. According to SECO’s Eurobond covenants, a “Change of Control” will be triggered only if the Government stake falls below 50%. So, this development should be in compliance with its existing covenants. This week, Fitch stated that they see no immediate impact on SECO’s ratings from this development and see the sovereign support for SECO as unchanged. Currently, SECO is rated one notch lower than the sovereign by Moody’s and Fitch at A2 and A respectively, while S&P rates them similar to sovereign at A-. The proposed 3G generation capacity represents around 5% of SECO’s total generation capacity as of FY16. It is still unclear about the level of stake sale being considered, however, more details are to be provided by February 2018, by when the due diligence is expected to be completed.

Figure 1: Select financial summary

SAR mn 9M17 YoY % Change

Revenue 39,139 -0.2%

EBITDA 25,462 42.5%

EBITDA excl. one-off item 19,574 8.9%

Net profit 12,429 95.1%

OCF 26,800 30.1%

Gross Cash 2,800 133%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data

0bed7b6cf11c



10 November 2017

Banking / Finance

Banco do Brasil

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

Banking / FinancePrice at 10 Nov 2017 (BRL) 31.30

Target price 41.00

52-week range 37.56 - 23.76

Forecast ChangeLatin AmericaBrazil

Company

Banco do Brasil


BBAS3.SA BBAS3 BS SAO BBAS3


Modest downside risk to estimates, butstill improvingEarnings should continue to improveManagement highlighted that earnings should gradually improve each quartergoing forward with at least double digit earnings growth in 2018. While thisimplied modest downside risk to our estimates (and possibly consensus), we thinkthe bank can continue to improve profitability, driven by good fee income, tightcost control, and better asset quality, leading to lower provisions. This should beenough to offset still weak loan growth and further pressure on NIM. Furthermore,the stock continues to trade at a discount to Latam and global peers at 7.2x '18EP/E. Maintain Buy.

Confusion with guidance was later clarified on conference callWe think there was initially some confusion on the conference call that earningscould reach the low end of the guidance range this year of R$9.5-12.5bn, whichwould imply a very weak fourth quarter. However, as earnings should improve ina seasonally stronger 4Q, which management confirmed, we think net incomeshould reach at least R$10.7bn this year. Furthermore, the cost of risk still hasplenty of room to improve from the current 3.9% posted in 3Q17 to return closerto the historical average of 3.0% over time. Meanwhile, expense growth belowinflation and fee income above inflation should further support earnings growth.

Modest reduction to estimatesWe are reducing our recurring net income estimate by 4% to R$10.7bn (reported-3%) to reflect weaker loan growth and higher other expenses related to laborclaims. This is only partially offset by lower expenses and provisions. Similarly,our 2018 and 2019 net income estimates fall by 5% to R$12.4bn and R$14.7bn,respectively. Nonetheless, we still expect recurring earnings growth of 19% in2017, followed by 16% in 2018, and 18% in 2019. Furthermore, ROE shouldcontinue to improve from 11.7% this year to 12.4% in 2018 and 13.3% in 2019.Our estimates are now 2% below consensus in 2018 and 3% below in 2019.

Discount valuation allows for plenty of upside potentialAt 7.2x '18E P/E, the stock is trading roughly in-line with its historical average,but at a significant discount to Latam peers at 10.8x and global banking peersat 9.7x. We also increased our PT to R$41/share, as we roll it over to 2018 witha lower COE of 13.1% vs. 14.6% before, given lower country risk and inflation,partially offset by a lower ROE of 14% from 16% before. Main risks include lackof loan growth, further NIM compression, and relatively low capital base.

Tito Labarta

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5944

Key changes

TP 39.00 to 41.00 ↑ 5.1%Source: Deutsche Bank


Banco do Brasil BOVESPA (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17

20

40

0


Absolute -11.8 4.8 18.3

BOVESPA -3.7 7.8 15.3Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 11.7

ROA (%) 0.8

Equity/assets (%) 6.7

Dividend yield (%) 3.4

P/BV (x) 0.9

P/E (x) 8.4Source: Deutsche Bank



Rating

Buy Global Emerging Markets

Panama

Aviation

Company

Copa Holdings, S.A. Date

9 November 2017

Results

Sep Q points to further margin expansion, improving macro

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker CPA.N CPA UN NYS CPA


Year End Dec 31 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

EPS (USD) 4.90 4.76 8.45 10.15 9.00

OLD EPS (USD) 4.90 4.76 8.40 8.50 –

% Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 19.4% –

P/E (x) 16.2 14.8 14.5 12.0 13.6

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Strong Sep Q; company tightens FY 2017 op. margin guidance

Price at 8 Nov 2017 (USD) 122.12

Target price 142.00

52-week range 134.01 - 85.23

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Catherine O-Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Matt Fallon

Research Associate

(+1) 212 250-7161

[email protected]

Key changes

TP 137.00 to 142.00 ↑ 3.6%

EPS (USD) 8.40 to 8.45 ↑ 0.6%

Revenue (USDm)

2,503 to 2,509 ↑ 0.2%



40

60

80

100

120

140

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

Copa Holdings, S.A.

S&P 500 INDEX (Rebased)


Absolute -3.8 -2.5 33.4

S&P 500 INDEX 1.8 4.8 21.3


Copa reported a strong Sep Q operating margin of 18.1%, higher than our 16.3% estimate and up 470 bps. y-o-y. In addition to this, Copa tightened its FY 2017 operating margin guidance from 16.0% - 18.0% to 17.0% - 18.0%. Management highlighted the improving Latin American macroeconomic backdrop and rational competitive capacity environment as two drivers of their upbeat outlook. The company also introduced 2018 FY op. margin guidance of 17.0% to 19.0%, implying 100 bps of margin expansion y-o-y vs. 2017. Expanding margins combined with an improving macroeconomic backdrop imply additional upside to Copa's equity value; Buy.

Management optimistic about macroeconomic and competitive backdrop Management see strong demand trends in the Dec Q 2017 and into the Mar Q 2018 as well as an improving Latin American macroeconomic backdrop. We view both of these factors as being unit revenue and earnings accretive, pointing to further room for margin expansion. Additionally, Wingo, Copa’s LCC operation, is performing better from an operational and financial standpoint. The company also highlighted the implementation of the new reservation system, which will enable Copa to manage maintenance programs more efficiently (resulting in lower costs). Management estimate that the implementation of the new system will be completed in mid to second half of 2018.

Raising our 2017 and 2018 forecasts We are raising our 2017 EPS estimate from $8.40 to $8.45 to reflect the Sep Q beat. We are also raising our 2018 EPS estimate from $8.50 to $10.15 primarily due to an improving macro backdrop.

Raising price target; risks We are raising our 12 month price target from $137 to $142 as we are now focused on our 2018 earnings outlook as 2017 comes to a close. Underlying our 12-month PT is a 14 P/E multiple – which compares to CPA’s historical 10x – 14x trading range - and lower than prior target multiple of 16x as we are nowfocusing on next year’s earnings rather than current year’s earnings. Underlying our 2017 and 2018 forecast are operating margins of 17.0% and 17.8%, respectively. This compares to an operating margin of 12.4% in 2016. Copa’s higher margins are a function of the implementation of various self-help initiatives as well as an economic recovery in Latin America. Fuel price volatility is a risk; a 10% change in the price of fuel impacts our 2018 EPS estimate of $10.15 by $1.30 (ceteris paribus). See Page 4 for more on this topic.

13 November 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook


12 November 2017

Exchange

B3

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

Banking / FinanceExchange

Price at 10 Nov 2017 (BRL) 22.40

Target price (BRL) 23.00

52-week range (BRL) 25.25 - 15.00

ResultsLatin AmericaBrazil

Company

B3


BVMF3.SA BVMF3 BZ SAO BVMF3


3Q17 weaker than expected on higherexpensesKey takeaway: good revenue growth offset by higher expensesReported net income of R$336mn was 16% below DBe and included R$15mnin extraordinary income as provision reversals (R$38mn post-tax) offset one-time charges related to Cetip (R$23mn post-tax). Excluding extraordinary itemsand non-cash charges related to goodwill and intangibles of R$377mn, cash netincome of R$698mn rose 15% qoq, but fell 5% yoy and was 11% below DBe.The weaker than expected result was mainly due to higher expenses and a highereffective tax rate of 31% vs. DBe of 20%. Furthermore, EBITDA fell 1% qoq (+11%yoy) and was 7% below DBe. Indeed, EBITDA margin fell to 67% from 70% lastquarter and 69% last year.

Positive was mostly good revenue trendsGross revenues (excluding provision reversals of R$58mn pre-tax) rose 3% qoq(+14% yoy) and were basically in-line with DBe, with good growth in mostsegments. Indeed, BM&F revenues rose 1% qoq (+20% yoy), albeit 10% belowDB, as ADTV spiked 49% yoy to 3.1mn contracts, partly offset by an 18% declinein average revenues per contract. Furthermore, Bovespa revenues rose 6% qoq(+19% yoy) and were 4% above DBe, as volumes rose 20% yoy to R$8.4bn.Meanwhile, Cetip revenues were flat qoq, but rose 8% yoy and were in-line withDBe, benefiting from higher vehicle sales (+6% yoy) and vehicles financed (+12%yoy). Finally, other revenues also increased 9% qoq (+11% yoy) and were 5%above DBe, given good growth in depository and back office fees.

Negative was higher expenses than expectedTotal operating expenses rose 6% qoq and spiked 69% yoy, 7% above DBe, mostlydue to the amortization of intangible assets related to Cetip. Meanwhile, adjustedexpenses (including provisions) rose 13% qoq (+19% yoy), and were 14% aboveDBe as lower personnel expenses (-2% qoq, -3% yoy) were offset by a spike inother expenses (+37% qoq, +102% yoy) related to legal provisions.

Maintain BuyWhile the quarter was a bit weaker than expected, revenue growth remainedstrong and EBITDA continues to grow in the double digits. Furthermore, valuationadjusted for non-cash charges looks attractive at 15.8x '18E P/E.

Tito Labarta

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5944


B3 BOVESPA (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17

10

20

30

0


Absolute -6.4 6.2 29.0

BOVESPA -6.2 7.7 17.9Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 9.2

ROA (%) 5.7

Equity/assets (%) –

Dividend yield (%) –

P/BV (x) –

P/E (x) 26.0Source: Deutsche Bank



North America

United States

Industrials

Metals & Mining

Periodical

Metals & Mining Alert

Date

10 November 2017

Periodical

Daily prices and news: China's winter capacity cuts to surpass 34mt

Jorge Beristain, CFA Chris Terry

Research Analyst Research Analyst

(+1) 203 863-2381 (+1) 212 250-5434

[email protected] [email protected]

Jeremy Kliewer Sathish Kasinathan

Research Associate Research Associate

(+1) 904 527-6532 (+1) 203 863-2358

[email protected] [email protected]

Corinne Blanchard

Research Associate

(+1) 904 645-2360

[email protected]

Focus stocks

Barrick (ABX.N),USD14.11 Buy Price Target USD19.00

Nucor (NUE.N),USD56.52 Buy Price Target USD70.00

Pan American Silver (PAAS.OQ),USD15.04 Buy Price Target USD20.00

Reliance Steel & Alum. (RS.N),USD76.19 Buy Price Target USD95.00

Teck (TECK.N),USD21.45 Buy Price Target USD26.00

Vale (VALE.N),USD10.13 Buy Price Target USD12.00


Price performance %WTD %YTD

3M LME aluminum -4.2% 23.6%

3M LME copper -1.3% 23.0%

3M LME lead 2.1% 24.7%

3M LME molybdenum 0.0% 5.0%

3M LME nickel -3.3% 22.8%

3M LME zinc -1.3% 23.3%

Comex gold 1.2% 11.5%

Comex silver 0.9% 6.8%

China HRC 0.4% 11.2%

SHFE rebar 2.9% 36.0%

Iron ore (62% Fe) 4.1% -21.0%

Coking coal, FOB Aus 0.4% -20.1%

Freight (BCI) 10.3% 141.8%

Brent 3.0% 12.5%

WTI 2.7% 6.4%

Natgas 7.2% -14.1%

Thermal (Newcastle) -1.3% 10.5%

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.95 (-0.8%), copper $3.09 (-0.7%), lead $1.14 (+0.3%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.58 (-3.1%); zinc $1.44 (-0.5%); Precious (/oz): gold $1,285 (+0.3%), silver $17.00 (-0.3%); Steel (/mt): China HRC $618 (-0.2%), SHFE Rebar $570 (+1.2%), MB Scrap Index $296 (-2.0%); Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $62 (+0.1%), coking coal (/mt) $181 (+0.0%), freight (BCI) 3,349 (+2.8%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $63.93 (+0.7%), WTI (/bbl) $57.17 (+0.6%), natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.20 (+0.8%), thermal coal (/t) $98 (-0.3%).

China’s Tianjin city requests steelmakers to curtail production over the coming winter. So far, 7 cities in Northern China have revealed output cut details as per the Federal government’s directive. Platts estimates total pig iron capacity curtailed from these 7 cities and Shaanxi province to be 33.5mt from Nov 15-Mar 15. However, these announcements refer to capacity and production volume could be lower. With a few more cities yet to publish details, total capacity cut is expected to surpass 33.5mt. (SBB)

Index of net new NA orders of aluminum mill products for October up 5% YoY to 104 (+1% MoM). Aluminum plate products saw the largest increase at +41% MoM and YoY while foil decreased 4% YoY and 11% MoM. Increasing plate orders could indicate aerospace destocking is ending and likely benefit producers such as Arconic, Constellium and Kaiser. (Aluminum Association, DB)

European Commission (EC) opens formal investigation into ArcelorMittal’s proposed takeover of Ilva. EC has decided to not grant Phase 1 approval to the deal and has said the Phase 2 investigation could run until March 23, 2018. EC noted that the merger could increase prices for customers in Southern Europe and concessions offered by ArcelorMittal failed to address its concerns. (SBB)

Freeport-McMoRan announces plans to redeem $617m 6.5% Senior Notes due 2020. Aggregate interest cost savings expected to be $40m/yr and FCX expects to record a gain to net income of $15m in 4Q17. Following these redemptions and repayment of 2.3% Senior Notes, FCX’s total debt is at $13.4bn (vs. $14.8bn at end of 3Q17). Separately, armed separatists have occupied five villages in Indonesia’s Papua region, threatening to disrupt operations at FCX’s Grasberg mine. Company is “deeply concerned” about security and has been using armored cars and helicopters to ferry workers. So far, there has been no impact to production and shipments. (Company)

Newmont acquired 2.2m common shares of TMAC Resources at a price of C$7/sh, implying a total investment of C$15.3m. Newmont now holds 26.4m shares of TMAC (~28.8% of the total outstanding shares). Purchase of shares is for investment purposes. (Company)

Constellium announces settlement of Cash Tender Offers. Out of the total $825m and EUR240m Senior Secured/Senior Notes offered for purchase, $474m and EUR128m was validly tendered and accepted by the company prior to expiration. (Company)



12 November 2017

EM Daily

Global Emerging Markets

EM DailyDate12 November 2017

Big fish, small pond

To watchPLN: CPI (Oct'17, YoY). Prev. 2.2% DB expects 2.1%RUB: GDP(prelim, Q3-'17). Prev. 2.5%. DB expects 2.6%.

Key recent developmentsBRL: IBGE Inflation IPCA (Oct'17,YoY). Below expectations at 2.70%.COP: Industrial Production (Sep'17, YoY. Better than expected at -1.90%.MXN: Industrial Production (Sep'17,YoY). Worse than expected at -1.20%.PEN: Reference Rate (Nov'17). Down to 3.25%.

Figure 1: FX Best/Worst Performers

1.04%

0.99%

0.86%

0.79%

-0.92%

-0.95%

-1.08%

-1.21%

MYR

COP

BRL

ARS

ILS

INR

RON

ZAR

Weekly Return (%) Weekly Return (%)


Figure 2: CDS Best/WorstPerformers

-0.48%

-0.27%

-0.21%

-0.18%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.15%

IL

ZA

ID

BR

SK

CZ

PK

QA

Daily Return (%)


Big fish, small pondWe believe that the recent unwinding of long EM positions (especially in localmarkets) will continue – at least while UST supply uncertainty is unresolved andmarket pricing is far from FOMC's dots. We don't expect a reversal in the benigntrend for EM of H1 - just a repricing of risk to reflect that liquidity has probablypeaked and that at this stage of the global business cycle there is less room forthe Fed to maneuver. Accordingly, we maintain our "half-empty" view for H2 oflate summer.

Timing is unfavorable, but the continued upturn of EM economies into 2018 andECB/BoJ QE spillover effects into global fixed income should cap the repricingof risk we expect. The reduced differentiation across EM FX and increased betasvs. global factors suggest investors are protecting their gains as we approachthe close of the year. Local markets tend to suffer disproportionally more duringthese times (chart) because of the reliance on FX as proxy hedge and jitters inglobal fixed income flows – the main source of EM inflows. Although we haveseen some signs of easing in outflows from local currency funds we still expecthard currency debt to remain more resilient than local. Also see EM Monthly -Threading the Needle published yesterday.

EM Credit - Preserving GainsWe expect credit to be more resilient than local markets and believe thatVenezuela’s apparent change in debt policy should have limited impact on thebroad EM credit market. In our view, the main risk over the near term – asfar as technicals are concerned - is that investors may want to take a moredefensive position overall, especially on the high-beta names, going into the year-end to preserve the still robust total returns so far this year (about +8.5% inJPM EMBI Diversified). Such risk could be amplified by a). Tight valuation ex-Venezuela (highlighted in the graph below), increasingly limiting scope for spread

Drausio Giacomelli

Strategist

+1-212-250-7355

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

+1-212-250-2524

Jed Evans

Strategist

+1-212-250-8605

0bed7b6cf11c



Emerging Markets

Credit Sovereigns


EM Sovereign Credit Weekly

Preserving gains

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

(+1) 212 250-2524

[email protected]

Viacheslav Shilin, MBA

Research Analyst

(+65 ) 6423 5726

[email protected] Market overview: Preserving gains We expect credit to be more resilient than local markets to higher rates and stronger dollar, and retain marketweight overall. Venezuela’s announcement of a debt restructuring should have limited impact on the broad EM credit market.

Key country positioning and key relative value recommendations Key overweights: Argentina, Ecuador, Malaysia, Mongolia Key underweights: Poland, Hungary, Sri Lanka Cash curve trades: Egypt 47s vs. 28s (new), South Africa 27s vs. 22s,

PETBRA 26s vs. 23s CDS/Bond basis: Brazil 5y CDS vs. 23s (new), Turkey 26s vs. 5Y CDS (new),

Colombia 27s vs. 10Y CDS (new), South Africa 24s vs. 5Y CDS Cash RV: Turkey 24s vs. 6.25% 22s, Argentina EUR Discounts vs. USD

Discounts (FX-hedged). Other: Long Argentina USD Pars, long Argentina EUR 28s and GDP

Warrants. Short PDVSA 20s.

LatAm While we become more cautious for the final weeks of the year as investors settle into the mode of preserving gains, we stay overweight on Argentina and Ecuador. Sentiments are turning more negative on Brazil and Mexico – more decidedly on the latter. We stay marketweight on Brazil given the relatively higher carry while moving to underweight on Mexico. We move Colombia to marketweight from overweight due to the lack of catalyst for outperformance. On Venezuela/PDVSA, we see a scope for further drop in bond prices and position for further price equalization (sell VEN 18s and PDV 20s). On asset allocation and relative value, we stay long Argentina USD Pars, EUR 28s, EUR Warrants, maintain switching from USD Discounts to EUR Discounts (fx-hedged) in Argentina; enter 10s30s cash curve flatteners (45s vs. 26s) and sell 5y CDS vs. 23s in Brazil; maintain 26s vs. 23s in Petrobras; and long 27s vs. 10Y CDS in Colombia.

EMEA While valuation has significantly improved once again in both Turkey (geopolitical risks) and South Africa (disappointing budget), we remain marketweight on both as we do not see any positive fundamentals impetus and external backdrop has also worsened for both. We are more constructive on the high-yielding Ukraine and Egypt but continue to underweight CEE majors (Hungary and Poland), mostly on valuation. We remain neutral on Russia. In relative value, we favor long 26Ns vs. 5Y CDS and long 24s vs. 6.25% 22s in Turkey; long 24s vs. 5Y CDS and long 27s vs. 22s in South Africa; and enter cash curve flatteners of long 47s vs. 28s in Egypt.

Asia Asian sovereign bond spreads and those of IG-rated SOEs have been largely grinding tighter following the USD issuance by China. This puts Malaysia’s curve into spotlight as the second most liquid amongst higher rated sovereigns in Asia. We see value in Malaysia longer-end bonds. Another overweight recommendation from us is Mongolia which maintains strong fundamental momentum following the second IMF review. We go into the year-end with neutral positioning in Indonesia and Philippines and underweight on Sri Lanka.



10 November 2017

Time to take profit for the year (and hide)

Europe FX Spot

Time to take profitfor the year (andhide)


Time to take profit for the year

It is time to take profit on dollar longs. We turned tactically positive on the dollarversus the EUR, JPY and AUD back in our September FX Blueprint but now seemost dollar catalysts as behind us. First, the dollar has rallied 4% from its lowswhich is very close to average bounce-backs in dollar bear markets (chart 1).Second, the market was pricing nothing for the Fed back in September but a year-end rate hike is now considered a done deal and terminal rate pricing - the keymedium-term dollar driver - has moved back to the middle point of its historicalrange (chart 2). Third, the majority of positive news around US tax reform isbehind us with the $1.5 trillion budget instruction having passed Congress andthe political cycle now moving on to the much more difficult part of debating thedetail of tax reform. Passage of a final tax bill will now be at risk of material delays.On the European side there are little catalysts left for the year with a dovish ECBout of the way and negative political headlines easing (Catalonia).

Markets have a history of trending strongly into year-end as investors pre-positionfor the New Year. Some of the biggest moves in the dollar and treasury yieldsusually happen in Q4 (chart 3). In contrast, we think the risk for this year is thatmarkets stay incredibly choppy. Having nearly corrected to our 1.15 target, EUR/USD is now very close to our year-end forecasts. With a lack of identifiable macrocatalysts into year-end, what is more concerning to us is the potential for a self-fulfilling VaR shock triggered by price action and year-end profit preservation.Positioning in FIC markets is very light, so equities is the space to watch for that:after a year of incredibly subdued volatility, it should be no surprise that shortvolatility positions on the VIX are close to a record high (chart 4).

George Saravelos

Strategist

+44-20-754-79118



10 November 2017

Asset Allocation

Strategy Update

Global Strategy

Asset AllocationDate10 November 2017

After The Long Rally: S&P 500 Outlook

■ The duration of the equity rally without a typical 3-5% pullback has beenvery unusual, and the rally is on track to become the longest since WWII.But the speed and the size of the rally have not been unusual and the S&P500 is well within its trend channel of this economic recovery defined backin 2010-2011 during the big pull- and snap-backs then. The rally has beendriven by earnings while the multiple has been in a narrow range over thelast year. While multiples are high relative to their historical averages theyare in line with their historical drivers.

■ Who bought the dips and why? Mutual- and long-short equity fundpositioning has risen steadily from cycle lows following the dollar andoil shocks to a 6-year high presently. But equity positioning increased intandem with the improvement in cyclical growth indicators such as theISMs. Who did not buy? Most notably, there have been no inflows into USequities this year while asset allocation funds have turned significantlyunderweight.

S&P 500 targets and EPS forecasts

2017 target

2018 target 2850

2017 EPS

2018 EPS

2600

$131

$146

■ We see S&P 500 EPS growth of 11% in 2018, supported by stable robustUS growth, a pickup in global growth and assuming a range bound dollar.This would put the level of earnings back up in line with their long runtrend or normalized levels. We see the multiple as essentially remainingflat with offsetting impacts from the drivers. Our earnings ($146) andmultiple forecasts (19.5x) point to an S&P 500 target of 2850 for 2018.We expect more regular (3%-5%) pullbacks to resume next year.

Binky Chadha

Chief Strategist

+1-212-250-4776

Parag Thatte

Strategist

+1-212-250-6605



10 November 2017

Thematic Research

Global Cross-Discipline

Thematic ResearchDate10 November 2017

Next week...this week

Hold your breath as there’s no shortage of important macro events and economicreleases for markets next week. Front and centre data-wise will be the variousinflation reports due to be released throughout the week. The most significant isthe October CPI report in the US on Wednesday. The consensus is for a small+0.1% mom lift in the headline and +0.2% mom lift in the core. Remember thoughthat the latter has missed relative to market expectations in six out of the lastseven months. Also due this week will be final October CPI revisions for Germanyand the UK on Tuesday, France on Wednesday and the Euro area on Thursday.The second reading for Q3 GDP will also be out for the Euro area on Tuesdayalthough no change from the +0.6% qoq flash print is expected. Meanwhilealso out in the US on Thursday will be the October retail sales report whereheadline and core sales are expected to have risen +0.1% mom and +0.3% mom,respectively. Finally China will get a turn with the October activity indicators dueout on Tuesday.

Away from data it’s going to be a packed week for central bank speakers too.The highlight though will likely be the ECB policy panel discussion in Frankfurton Tuesday which includes a star studded line up with the ECB’s Draghi, Fed’sYellen, BoE’s Carney and BoJ’s Kuroda all participating. If that wasn’t enough,then politics should also get its time in the spotlight with President Trump’s tourof Asia continuing including participation in the US-ASEAN summit on Mondayand Tuesday. Meanwhile UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legalisation is scheduled tobe the subject of line-by-line examination in the House of Commons on Tuesdayand Wednesday. The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations and discussions are alsoscheduled for Wednesday. Finally, US tax reform should never be too far from theheadlines. The Senate Finance Committee is due to start working on markups tothe bill next week and perhaps as soon as Monday. A final vote on the tax bill wasinitially hoped before Thanksgiving which brings next week into play but there’splenty of doubt about this timetable being stuck too. Nevertheless, expect tax-related headlines to continue to be a feature in the US next week.

What to look out for next week?

Monday: Central bank speakers will occupy most of the focus at the start of theweek with the Fed’s Harker, ECB’s Constancio and BoJ’s Kuroda all scheduledto speak. President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are also due totake part in the US-ASEAN summit in Manilla. Data-wise the monthly budgetstatement in the US is the sole release. Elsewhere the Senate Finance Committeemay commence markups on the tax bill.

Craig Nicol

Macro Strategist

+44-20-754-57601

Jim Reid

Strategist

+44-20-754-72943



Emerging Markets

Trade Recommendation

Credit Sovereigns


Venezuela - Getting Ready for Potential Flat Trading

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

(+1) 212 250-2524

[email protected]

Venezuela/PDVSA bonds may start trade flat next week The grace period for the coupon payments due on a few bonds - namely PDVSA 27s, VEN 29s and 24s - ends this weekend. If Venezuela/PDVSA fail to pay these past due coupons, EMTA (Emerging Markets Trading Association) may decide that all Venezuela/PDVSA bonds will trade flat, or in other words, trade at an all-in price and without an additional payment in respect of accrued interest, early next week.

If this potential switch in market convention takes place, new buyers will be entitled to all unpaid and accrued interest and related claims as of the trade date - both for the current interest period and for any previous interest period that is unpaid as of the trade date. This is the market convention as we understand it, and was the convention taken by EMTA in August 2014 when Argentina entered into default due to blocks on coupon payments, to our understanding.

How would the flat prices be? Assuming there is no other event that may affect bond prices, the all-in price should be current clean price plus a fraction of the total unpaid and accrued interest, with the fraction being the recovery rate. Typically, the total past due interests would be added to the eligible claim in a prospective restructuring.

But in this case - as with everything related to Venezuela – it is a little bit more complicated. As we know, if a credit event occurs now, there might still be a chance for the past dues to get paid. We may get more clarify about this from Monday’s “investor meeting” in Caracas. Or maybe not. Where would the prices be? Assuming everything else equal, and a recovery rate of 20%, these are the range of possible all-in prices and our estimates (based on market close of 9-Nov).

Low end = current clean price + total past due * recovery rate (20%)

High end = current clean price + total past due. This would only materialize if we assume all past dues are paid.

Our estimate = current clean price + Current Accrued * 10% + Past due coupon * 25%. Here we essentially assume there is a slight chance for current accrued to be paid later, and a more material chance for the past due coupons (the ones currently in grace periods) to get paid. This calculation clearly favors the ones with past due coupons, which in our view is fair in this case.

Results, implications, and caveats The table and graphs to the right show these numbers. The column Estimate in the table shows what we think should be (close to) the fair all-in price for the bonds, and the Change column shows the difference between our estimate and the current prices. This presentation aims at offerings a rough guide as to where the all-in prices should be when bonds start to trade flat based on our assumptions on how the past dues will likely be treated. A potential implication here is perhaps that short sellers may find themselves in a situation in which they may have to cover short at a higher (flat-) price (especially for the bonds that are in grace periods with respect to coupon payments).

If an investor has a different set of assumptions on the chances for the current accrueds and past due coupons to get paid, they can easily adjust the calculation and draw their own conclusions. One caveat is that other events, such as any headlines related to Monday’s “investor meeting”, may dominate price actions so that the above considerations may appear inconsequential in comparison.

Potential all-in price range and our

estimate, vs. current prices Clean Current Past due Total

Bond Price Accrued Coupon due High Low Estimate Change

'18O 33.0 3.4 0.0 3.4 36.4 33.7 34.5 1.5

'18N 31.8 3.2 0.0 3.2 34.9 32.4 33.2 1.4

'19 25.0 0.7 3.9 4.5 29.5 25.9 27.4 2.4

'20 23.5 2.6 0.0 2.6 26.1 24.0 24.7 1.2

'22 23.0 2.9 0.0 2.9 25.9 23.6 24.3 1.3

'23 22.8 0.2 4.5 4.7 27.4 23.7 25.3 2.6

'24 24.1 0.7 4.1 4.8 29.0 25.1 26.7 2.6

'25 23.5 0.5 3.8 4.3 27.8 24.4 25.8 2.3

'26 23.4 0.8 5.9 6.6 30.0 24.7 26.9 3.6

'27 25.8 1.5 0.0 1.5 27.3 26.1 26.4 0.7'28 24.3 0.2 4.6 4.8 29.1 25.2 26.9 2.6

'31 22.3 3.3 0.0 3.3 25.6 22.9 23.7 1.5

'34 23.5 3.2 0.0 3.2 26.7 24.1 24.9 1.4

'38 23.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 23.9 23.2 23.4 0.4

'20 73.5 0.3 4.3 4.6 78.1 74.4 76.0 2.5

'21 25.3 4.4 0.0 4.4 29.7 26.2 27.3 2.0

'22 29.4 3.1 0.0 3.1 32.5 30.0 30.8 1.4

'24 22.3 3.0 0.0 3.0 25.3 22.9 23.7 1.3

'26 21.8 3.0 0.0 3.0 24.8 22.4 23.2 1.3'27 25.2 0.5 2.7 3.2 28.4 25.9 26.9 1.7'35 24.4 4.8 0.0 4.8 29.2 25.4 26.6 2.2

'37 25.7 0.5 0.0 0.5 26.2 25.8 25.9 0.2

All-in Price

All-in price estimates – range and our

“recommended” level

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

V'1…

V'1…

V'1

9

V'2

0

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2

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8

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1

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6

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7

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5

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7

All-in price estimate

High Low Estimate

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

V'1

8O

V'1

8N

V'1

9

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0

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2

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3

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4

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6

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1

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8

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1

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4

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6

P'2

7

P'3

5

P'3

7

All-in price estimate vs. current clean price

High Low Estimate

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg



10 November 2017

DB Inflation Report

AustralasiaEuropeGlobalNorth America

Rates

DB Inflation ReportDate10 November 2017

Weekly Inflation Update

Inflation Market UpdateInflation markets globally have benefited from higher oil prices and risingeconomic data surprises, and summary indicators indicate a tactically favourablemacro backdrop for breakevens.

Valuations have lagged the move higher in oil, as some of the rise may be seenas driven by temporary geopolitical or supply factors. This should provide someprotection for BEI if crude does correct lower again. Meanwhile, valuations in USDand EUR remain below CPI forecasts at the front-end and below model projectionsin 10y. We see further upside for 10y breakevens in both markets.

In EUR, October core HICP was below expectations, and one-off factors havepulled the forecast profile lower. Forward-looking indicators continue to point toa slow recovery in the underlying trend in the coming quarters, however. In GBP,we expect next week’s October release to show RPI inflation at 4.1/4.2% y/y. Highinflation is a support for BEI fro now, but we continue to see any upside limitedby the mixed economic outlook and prospects of inflation easing next year. Thenew IL48 looks cheap on the curve, not least vs the IL50.

TIPSWe find that 10y TIPS look relatively cheap compared to 5y and 30y TIPS aheadof next week’s reopening of the TIIJul27. Within the 10y sector, the TIIJul27 hasrecently cheapened relative to several of its neighboring bonds.

AUD/NZDThis week also saw release of weights for the upcoming 17th Series CPIin Australia. Going forward, expenditure weights will be updated annuallywhich should reduce the accumulation of substitution bias over time betweenreweightings, placing a downward bias on measured CPI. But publishing theweights is the final step in a long-running process, so we think the impact shouldby now be mostly fully priced.

Crude OilThe wave of US production data disappointment continues as productivity hasonce again been revised lower. At the global level, inventory reductions couldhowever soon slow.

Markus Heider

Strategist

+44-20-754-52167



10 November 2017

Brazil Update

Latin AmericaBrazil

Economics

Brazil UpdateDate10 November 2017

Inflation remains subdued

Highlights:■ The IPCA rose 0.42% in October, at the low end of market expectations.

■ The first preview of the November IGP-M came in at -0.02%, lower thanexpected.

■ Week ahead: eyes on the pension reform.

Jose Carlos Faria

Chief Economist

+55-11-2113-5185



Emerging Markets

Economics Foreign Exchange Rates Credit


EMEA Fixed Income Time for steepeners and hedges

Christian Wietoska

Strategist (+44) 20 754-52424

[email protected]

Ankit Jain

Research Associate

(+91) 22 6181-1634 [email protected] After months of strong performance, EM(EA) Fixed Income came under

pressure in October, providing the weakest monthly performance YTD. On the external front, driven by US dollar strength, expectations of a December hike by the Fed, and concerns on upcoming tightening of global fiscal conditions, also idiosyncratic reasons particularly across the EMEA high-yielders, were responsible for the selloff.

Turkish assets suffered under increased geopolitical tension with the US, elevated inflation pressure and unfavourable supply dynamics; the finance ministry in South Africa surprised investors with a shockingly weak fiscal outlook, increasing the risk of a downgrade to non-investment grade for local debt already in November. Last but not least, concerns on an expansion on US sanctions for Russia particularly put pressure on the Rubble.

What’s next? The external backdrop has deteriorated, and the outlook for EM(EA) Fixed Income is no longer as favourable as it was over the summer. However, we do not yet turn extremely bearish, and still see selective value in the asset class. Nevertheless, we take a more cautious approach going into year-end and initiate steepeners and short-end payers to hedge some of the duration risk in our bond portfolio.

Russian and Polish fixed income remain our favourite position, while we dissuade from duration trades in South Africa ahead of the risk-events, and we turn neutral again on Turkish fixed income until we get a clearer picture on geopolitics and the CBTs reaction function. In Russia, stay long in OFZs, best in Aug-21 or Mar-33. On the local swap

curve, keep 1Y IRS receivers, while in cross-currency swaps, still express asteepener bias by being short in 5Y5Y, either: a) against being long inshort-end XCCY (2Y rates), b) against being long in bonds given favourableASW-spreads, or c) outright.

In Turkey, our bullish view on long-end bonds expressed last month –despite the outperformance against anything else in swaps/bonds/fx – waspremature, and we stay away from any bond recommendation before weget a clearer picture on monetary policy and the US-Turkey relationship.On XCCY, we expect the curve to remain heavily inverted. However, levelslook excessive and the timing of the possible emergency hikes appearswrongly priced. Therefore, we recommend 1s5s/5s10s XCCY steepenershedged with 6m fx implied yield payers or 6m fx implied – 1Y XCCYflatteners.

In Israel, keep short-end fwd starting receivers, best expressed in beinglong on the 3Y fwd 1y rate. Remain long on 5Y5Y IRS vs. US-swaps, asslope trade positioned into long-end bonds vs. paying 2Y ILS.

In Romania, expect further relative outperformance in long-end bonds.However, given the expected hiking cycle in combination with uncertaintyon the fiscal side, add a 1s3s XCCY steepener to hedge the exposure inlong-end bonds (best Apr-23 or Jul-27).

In Czech Republic, keep 5s10s IRS (bear)-steepeners, while also expecting5Y IRS to move higher given higher inflation expectations by the CNB.



10 November 2017

Global Fixed Income Weekly

Global Rates

Global Fixed IncomeWeekly


Oil prices, the Phillips curve and theECB

■ We maintain our bearish bias ahead of next week’s US CPI release.

■ There are strong political incentives and an implicit agreement to passan unfunded tax cut amounting to a USD1.5trn deficit increase over 10years. This remains underpriced by the market.

■ Real wages are moving in line with measures of labour market slack.There is no additional wage puzzle above and beyond understanding thedecline in inflation expectations.

■ The decline in inflation expectations can be traced back, at least partially,to the positive supply shock generated by US shale oil. There are nowsigns that the productivity of US shale oil has peaked. This shouldultimately support inflation expectations.

■ Major turning points in the ECB’s policy have also coincided with largemovements in oil prices. The market has pushed the timing of the first25bp hike too far out.

■ We remain tactically and strategically bearish, and look for 10y yields torise to 2.60% by year end.

■ There is another item in the litany of headwinds for the Treasuryterm premium: issuance. The TBAC minutes recommended increasingissuance in bills and the short end of the coupon curve, with long endissuance sized to stabilize WAM at current levels.

■ The TBAC’s recommended issuance for Q1 2018 raises over $500 billionin new cash and stabilizes WAM in precisely this way. The primaryimplication is that the change in issuance concentration is a spread issue,not a duration issue. This supports our expectations for a steeper spreadcurve.

■ Higher bill issuance is likely to keep downward pressure on LIBOR/GC inthe medium term and contribute to tighter front end swap spreads. Wecontinue to hold our recommended received position in 2y spreads, andwill observe a lower stop-out at 22 bp. From a longer term perspective,we expect SLR reform to partially alleviate balance sheet scarcity, whichon balance should create a positive supply shock in the repo market andallow spreads to widen.

Francis Yared

+44-20-754-54017

Laura Desplans, PhD

+1-212-250-7583

Jack Di-Lizia

+44-20-754-51865

Markus Heider

+44-20-754-52167

Aleksandar Kocic

+1-212-250-0376

Soniya Sadeesh

+44-20-754-73091

Stuart Sparks

+1-212-250-0332

Bernd Volk

+41-44-227-3710

Steven Zeng, CFA

+1-212-250-9373



10 November 2017

European Fixed Income Weekly

EuropeNorth America

Rates

European FixedIncome Weekly


Oil prices, the Phillips curve and theECB

■ We maintain our bearish bias ahead of next week’s US CPI release

■ There are strong political incentives and an implicit agreement to passan unfunded tax cut amounting to a USD1.5trn deficit increase over 10years. This remains underpriced by the market

■ Real wages are moving in line with measures of labour market slack.There is no additional wage puzzle above and beyond understanding thedecline in inflation expectations

■ The decline in inflation expectations can be traced back, at least partially,to the positive supply shock generated by US shale oil. There are nowsigns that the productivity of US shale oil has peaked. This shouldultimately support inflation expectations

■ Gross APP purchases have picked up in October highlighting the built-inloosening of policy from a flow perspective, given a stable amount of netpurchases and rising redemptions. The latter are expected to trend higherin the coming quarters reaching EUR12.4bn on average in the first tenmonths of next year

■ Notwithstanding some volatility, yields have moved broadly sideways thismonth, as a rise in inflation breakevens was offset by a decline in realyields. Shorter-end real yields are at, or close to lows, despite constructiveeconomic news and consistent ECB signalling of a progressive exit fromasset-purchases

■ Major turning points in the ECB’s policy have coincided with largemovements in oil prices. The market has pushed the timing of the first25bp hike too far out. With real rates at lows and a supportive macrobackdrop for breakevens, we continue to see scope for higher yields

■ DNB Boligkreditt issued the tightest ever Norwegian euro covered bond,a 7Y EUR 1.5bn issue at ms-9bp, confirming the current squeeze ofspreads. By tapping outstanding 10 and 30Y bonds by EUR 2.8bn in total,EFSF completed its FY funding (EUR 49bn). With supras and agencies intotal closely done with their FY targets but redemptions of euro bondsamounting to EUR 19.5bn, supply and demand remain supportive. In ourview, bonds of German federal states are attractive compared to EFSFand French sovereign bonds

Francis Yared

Strategist

+44-20-754-54017

Sukanto Chanda

Strategist

+44-20-754-52461

Jack Di-Lizia

Strategist

+44-20-754-51865

Markus Heider

Strategist

+44-20-754-52167

Soniya Sadeesh

Strategist

+44-20-754-73091

Bernd Volk

Strategist

+41-44-227-3710



10 November 2017

China macro

AsiaChina

Economics

China macroDate10 November 2017

A big step to open up China’s financialsectorPresident Trump’s visit to Beijing went smoothly for both sides. From a macroperspective, the main breakthrough is China’s decision to open up its financialsector.

■ In the securities, fund management, and futures business: Foreigninvestors can own up to 51% of an individual company now, and 100%three years from now;

■ In the banking sector: Treat foreign and Chinese companies equally.Remove restriction that foreign companies can only own less than 20%of a Chinese bank or a financial asset management company individually,less than 25% jointly.

■ In the insurance sector: Allow foreign insurance companies to own up to51% of an individual insurance company in China three years from now,100% five years from now.

This is a big step toward opening up the service sector to the world. WithinPresident Xi’s 2nd term, foreign investors can fully own insurance companies,securities brokers, fund management companies, and futures companies. Therestriction on foreign ownership in the banking sector is not fully removed, but atleast foreign investors are treated equally.

This is consistent with the message from the 19th CCP Party Congress. Aswe highlighted on Oct 18, President Xi mentioned the government should"significantly promote market access and open up the service sector" (see ournote here). The announcement today delivered his promise. We take it as apositive signal from the government that they are serious about the reformsdiscussed in the Party Congress. This reform will help to promote FDI inflows andoffset some of the capital outflows.

Other than the financial sector reform, President Xi and President Trump alsoagreed on a record-high deal, including Chinese investment in the US energysector and a purchase of 300 airplanes from the US. There seems to be nodisagreement on major issues, including North Korea. The bilateral relationshipstays constructive, which in our view lowers the chance of trade tension in theshort term.

Zhiwei Zhang, PhD

Chief Economist

+852-2203 8308



10 November 2017

US Economic Notes

North AmericaUnited States

Economics

US Economic NotesDate10 November 2017

What you need to know for the weekaheadMonday Release Forecast Previous Consensus

There are no major economic data releases scheduled for Monday

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank

Commentary for Monday: This week’s economic calendar features several keydata releases and Fedspeak. Market participants will also want to pay closeattention to tax reform progress in Washington. As of the time of this publication,the House Ways and Means Committee had voted along party lines (24-16) todeliver its bill to the full House. The Senate Finance Committee’s proposal wasalso revealed last week and is slated for markup this week. Both versions areessentially opening gambits by the two chambers and the hard work begins whenthe two bills are “reconciled”. As a reminder, the Senate version is likely to becloser to the final version. In our view, there is a decent chance that some versionof tax reform can be achieved, but this is likely to be a Q1 event and there arenumerous potential stumbling blocks along the way.

With respect to the data, October inflation and retail sales reports are the mainfocus. Tuesday, we expect headline PPI (+0.1% forecast vs. +0.4% previously) tomoderate following a spike in gasoline prices last month due to hurricane-relatedsupply disruptions. However, core PPI inflation (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) should firm. Wewill focus on the healthcare services component of the PPI, as this is an input intothe corresponding series in the core PCE deflator—the Fed’s preferred inflationmetric. Recall that healthcare has the largest weighting in the core PCE.

The decline in gas prices will have a similar effect on headline CPI (0.1% vs. +0.6%)released on Wednesday. Core CPI prices (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) are expected to firmbut the year-over-year growth rate should remain at 1.7%, down from 2.3% atthe beginning of the year. While we anticipate core inflation to remain tame near-term, there are signs that we are reaching an inflection point on inflation. Inflationlags output growth by about six quarters, and in this regard, some of the recentweakness reflects the soft-patch in growth in late 2015/early 2016.

Regarding retail sales, the headline (+0.1% vs. +1.6%) will likely cool due to motorvehicle sales, which slipped to a still robust 18 million units in October following asurge in hurricane impacted regions of the country. Sales excluding automobilesshould fare a bit better (+0.3% vs. +1.0%). Per usual, we will focus on retail control(+0.4% vs. +0.4%), which excludes autos, building materials and gas stations

Brett Ryan

Senior US Economist

+1-212-250-6294

Justin Weidner

Economist

+1-212-469-1679

Matthew Luzzetti, PhD

Senior Economist

+1-212-250-6161



10 November 2017

US Economic Perspectives

North AmericaUnited States

Economics

US EconomicPerspectives


When do higher Treasury yields hurtgrowth? Estimating a neutral 10y yield

■ With the Fed sticking to their script of continued gradual rate hikes,attention has been focused on how high the fed funds rate will rise inthe coming quarters. However, a more crucial question for growth andmarkets is how high the 10-year Treasury yield will rise, and at what levelit would begin to restrain growth.

■ Answers to these questions require having a view on the neutral levelof the 10-year Treasury yield – the level at which yields keep inflation attarget, growth at potential and the unemployment rate at NAIRU. Thatis, the neutral 10-year yield is the level at which bond yields switch frombeing growth-supportive to growth-restrictive. We label this neutral 10-year Treasury yield "10y-star", and take a first step in estimating it byextending a popular methodology for computing its analogue for the fedfunds rate, r-star.

■ Our estimates imply that 10y-star is currently around 1.5%, about 1.3percentage points above current r-star estimates. Assuming that the Fedachieves its inflation target on average, this estimate is consistent with anominal neutral 10-year Treasury yield around 3.5%.

■ According to our analysis there is therefore considerable room for longer-term bond yields to rise without exerting a meaningful drag on growth.However, it is likely that the rate of change in bond yields – not justthe level – also matters. As such, a sharp rise in yields even to levelsbelow neutral could prove disruptive to markets and the economy, at leasttemporarily. Offsetting this possibility is the fact that financial conditionsare now at the easiest (i.e., most growth supportive) levels on recordaccording to our financial conditions index (FCI). There is room for loosefinancial conditions to absorb a rise in yields before it adversely affectsgrowth prospects.

■ 10y-star shares several similarities with r-star estimates. First, 10y-startrended lower over the decades prior to the financial crisis. Second, bothestimates plunged to record lows in response to the financial crisis, andthere are only tentative signs that they have risen from the post-crisislows. Finally, as we have emphasized in recent work on r-star, there is alsoconsiderable uncertainty around 10y-star estimates. We highlight oneadditional source of uncertainty in our estimates – the choice of inflationexpectations to construct the real 10-year Treasury yield.

Matthew Luzzetti, PhD

Senior Economist

+1-212-250-6161

Justin Weidner

Economist

+1-212-469-1679



13 November 2017



Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Thursday, 09 November

BR 07:00 FGV CPI IPC-S (Nov) 0.35% 0.33%

BR 07:00 FGV Inflation IGP- DI (Oct) 0.10% 0.62%

TR 07:00 Industrial production (Sep) -5.20%

CL 08:00 CPI (Oct) 0.2% (1.5%) -0.2% (1.5%)

HU 08:00 Merchandise trade balance(prelim) (Sep), EUR, m EUR303.0m

CZ 08:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 3.8%rate

CZ 09:00 CNB FX reserves (Oct), USD, bn USD146.3bn

PL 11:00 MPC meeting (Nov) 1.50%rate 1.50%rate 1.50%rate

RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Nov) 0.00%

UA 14:34* CPI (Oct) 2.0% (16.4%)

UA 14:35* PPI (Oct) -22.40%

Thursday, 09 November

EG 05:44* CPI (Oct) 0.7% (30.3%) 1.0% (31.6%)

RO 07:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), EUR, bn -EUR1,059.70bn

CZ 08:00 CPI (Oct) 0.4% (2.8%) -0.1% (2.7%)

HU 08:00 CPI (Oct), nsa 0.3% (2.3%) 0.1% (2.5%)

HU 08:00 Core inflation excluding indirect taxes (Oct) -2.60%

EG 10:00* Industrial production (Sep) -17.00% -23.80%

MX 11:00 CPI (Oct) 0.60% (6.30%) 0.31% (6.35%)

MX 11:00 Core CPI (Oct) 0.28%

ZA 11:00 Manufacturing production (Sep), nsa -1.50%

TR 12:00* CBT FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD95.5bn

PE 12:00* Trade Balance (Sep), USD, m USD350.0m USD371.0m

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD425.5bn

US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Oct), k 1,884.0k

US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov), k 231.0k 229.0k

US 15:00 Wholesale Inventories (Sep), sa 0.50% 0.30% 0.3% (4.5%)

Friday, 10 November

BR 04:00 FIPE CPI weekly (Nov)

RO 07:00 CPI (Oct) 0.5% (1.8%)

BR 08:00 IBGE Inflation IPCA (Oct) 0.45% (2.73%) 0.16% (2.54%)

RU 08:00 Money supply (Nov), RUB, tr, chg RUB9.3tr

MX 11:00 Industrial Production (Sep) (-1.0%) (-0.5%)

KZ 12:00* Industrial production (Oct)* -6.90%

PL 13:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), EUR, m EUR298.0m

RU 13:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), USD, bn USD6.6bn

US 15:00 Consumer Sentiment prelim (Nov), Index 94 100.7

US 19:00 Treasury Budget Balance (Oct), USD, bn USD8.0bn

Monday, 13 November

RO 07:00 Current account balance (Sep), EUR, m -EUR4,043.0m

TR 07:00 Current account balance (Sep), USD, bn -USD4.90bn -USD1.24bn

RO 07:00 Industrial production (Sep) -9.80%

HU 08:00 Construction (Sep), nsa -36.80%

HU 08:00 Industrial production(final) (Sep), wda -6.80%

CZ 09:00 Current account balance(and BoP) (Sep), CZK, bn -CZK8.1bn

IL 11:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,572.0m

BR 12:00* Tax Collections (Oct), BRL, m BRL110.0m BRL105,595.0m

PL 13:00 CPI (Oct), nsa 0.4% (2.1%) 0.4% (2.2%)

PL 13:00 Current account balance(and BoP) (Oct), EUR, m -EUR100.0m


13 November 2017



Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)

10-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 60,547.60 na -0.4 0.2 1.8 27.1 24.0 36.8 15.6

EMEA MSCI EMEA 538.10 na -0.6 0.8 2.7 10.1 10.0 23.9 2.8

LatAm MSCI LatAm 82,431.81 na -1.0 -1.7 -4.7 14.6 18.1 15.9 6.4

Asia MSCI Asia 924.67 na -0.2 0.4 2.8 33.5 29.2 47.4 24.2

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 1,063.70 24 0.4 2.1 1.3 35.4 10.5 -1.0 -52.0

Greece ASE 734.12 50 -0.7 -3.4 -3.9 26.5 -23.5 -16.0 -88.7

Hungary BSE 39,435.24 65 -1.7 -0.6 2.2 35.8 107.1 72.8 -5.1

Israel TA-25 1,419.84 421 -0.1 -1.5 -3.0 4.8 5.1 29.7 28.8

Poland WIG 63,415.60 251 -0.3 -0.3 -2.2 41.6 11.9 32.6 -25.4

Russia RTS$ 1,156.74 1050 -0.4 4.3 1.9 0.4 10.6 -17.2 -48.9

Turkey ISE 100 108,949.35 1645 -0.9 -1.5 0.4 27.1 -18.1 -29.7 -37.0

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,264.24 1 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 3.6 -11.8 18.3 -52.7

Egypt CASE 14,270.55 56 -0.6 -0.4 3.2 19.4 -38.8 -11.9 -51.6

Jordan ASEGI 2,089.51 4 0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -3.7 -0.5 8.0 -39.3

Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,176.06 62 -1.3 -5.7 -6.8 8.6 -16.9 -0.4 -55.3

Oman MSM30 5,067.21 133 0.2 0.5 -1.2 -12.4 -26.8 -11.2 -38.5

Qatar DSM20 7,875.63 29 -0.1 -3.3 -4.6 -24.5 -42.9 -8.1 -18.2

Saudi Arabia TASI 6,933.09 977 -0.3 -0.3 -1.5 -3.8 -29.2 -0.1 -22.6

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,373.73 42 -0.1 -2.0 -2.2 -3.8 -11.1 63.5 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,464.74 106 0.4 -4.3 -4.0 -1.9 -24.3 114.2 -36.3

South Africa JSE All Share 59,776.12 1227 -0.9 -0.8 -1.6 12.8 -7.1 -3.0 -10.7

ASIA

China HSCCI 4,437.03 883 -0.6 0.5 1.4 22.9 -0.2 5.4 -28.1

China A-Shares SHASHR 3,594.97 38441 0.1 1.8 0.5 15.7 27.9 56.0 -28.1

India BSE 30 33,314.56 200 -0.2 -2.0 4.5 30.4 12.8 49.8 6.2

Indonesia JSE CI 6,021.83 338 -0.1 0.2 0.7 26.1 13.9 27.6 76.7

Korea KOSPI 2,542.95 4794 -0.4 -0.9 6.2 35.5 26.1 30.0 4.1

Malaysia KLCI 1,742.28 190 0.1 1.1 -0.4 13.6 -24.3 -22.4 -1.5

Pakistan KSE 29,476.42 54 -0.7 0.7 1.3 -10.8 24.1 NA NA

Philippines MSE CI 8,433.48 80 -1.0 0.5 0.9 19.3 2.7 23.6 89.9

Taiwan TWSE 10,732.67 3686 -0.1 -0.5 2.5 24.3 20.2 41.5 27.8

Thailand SET 1,689.28 1368 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 18.5 6.9 21.1 97.6

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 27,080.55 23 -3.0 -2.4 -0.5 45.3 26.7 209.4 109.4

Brazil BOVESPA 72,165.64 2022 -1.8 -1.3 -9.0 19.0 6.6 -21.4 NA

Chile IPSA 5,394.70 103 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 38.1 29.0 -3.2 33.5

Colombia IGBC 10,761.69 na -0.3 2.8 -4.4 6.3 -42.5 -54.6 -32.0

Mexico IPC 48,028.30 375 -1.5 -0.5 -5.9 14.2 -23.4 -18.4 -6.2

Peru IBVL 19,680.91 8 -1.5 -2.1 2.5 30.8 15.1 -24.7 -8.1

Venezuela BVC 655.78 171 -4.3 -7.6 23.5 -97.9 13773.0 76527.4 361415.5 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

13 November 2017



Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 10-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 21.9 -0.1 -0.7 0.3 -14.2 -1.0 9.8 21.6 21.5 20.8

Hungary HUF 267.6 -0.3 -0.4 2.7 -8.7 8.5 20.0 267.5 269.2 260.0

Israel ILS 3.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 -7.7 -6.9 -9.4 3.5 3.5 3.4

Poland PLN 3.6 -0.3 -0.9 0.6 -13.2 7.2 10.9 3.5 3.5 3.4

Russia RUB 59.2 -0.1 0.6 2.6 -3.4 28.0 87.2 56.6 56.8 57.0

Turkey TRY 3.9 -0.1 0.6 5.7 9.5 71.2 115.6 3.8 3.8 3.9

South Africa ZAR 14.4 0.9 1.1 6.7 4.9 28.2 64.6 12.4 12.3 12.0

ASIA

China CNY 6.6 0.2 0.2 0.9 -4.3 8.9 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.1

India INR 65.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 -4.1 5.8 19.6 66.0 66.0 66.0

Indonesia IDR 13,532.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 11.3 40.6 13,870.0 13,990.0 14,180.0

Korea KRW 1,119.5 0.2 0.7 -1.2 -7.3 2.6 2.9 1,130.0 1,140.0 1,160.0

Malaysia MYR 4.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -6.5 25.6 36.8 4.4 4.4 4.6

Pakistan PKR 105.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 3.6 9.4 na na na

Philippines PHP 51.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 3.1 14.4 24.8 52.5 53.2 53.5

Taiwan TWD 30.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -6.3 -0.9 3.9 31.2 31.5 31.7

Thailand THB 33.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -7.5 0.7 8.1 33.7 33.9 34.2

LATAM

Argentina ARS 17.5 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 9.6 106.7 266.6 18.3 19.0 20.3

Brazil BRL 3.3 0.4 -0.5 3.1 0.5 27.9 59.5 3.2 3.3 3.3

Chile CLP 630.6 0.0 -0.5 0.9 -5.4 7.1 31.5 642.0 645.0 650.0

Mexico MXN 19.1 -0.1 -0.2 1.6 -7.7 40.7 44.5 19.4 19.4 19.5

Colombia COP 3,011.8 -0.1 -0.9 2.0 0.4 43.5 65.8 2,990.1 3,005.0 3,034.7

Peru PEN 3.2 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 11.0 24.1 3.2 3.2 3.2

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.9 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 -9.6 7.1 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.8

UK GBP 0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -6.7 20.6 20.4 0.8 0.8 0.8

Switzerland CHF 1.0 -0.1 -0.4 2.1 -2.2 3.3 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Japan JPY 113.5 -0.1 -0.5 1.0 -3.0 -1.7 42.8 117.0 118.0 120.0

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

13 November 2017



Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

10-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 2,101.0 0.4 -3.2 -3.3 24.1 2.2 9.4 -19.5 1788 1728 1670

Copper ($/mt) 6,786.0 -0.3 -2.6 1.8 22.6 1.1 -10.4 -3.5 5900 5725 6800

Nickel ($/mt) 12,055.5 -1.6 -6.3 10.3 21.0 -21.5 -24.2 -64.0 10625 11250 12500

Iron Ore($/mt) 61.1 0.0 1.0 -5.2 -21.8 -18.5 -50.0 - 69 54 56

Zinc ($/mt) 3,289.5 1.8 0.0 -1.3 28.3 47.6 76.9 21.0 3100 2538 2100

Tin ($/mt) 19,700.0 1.2 0.5 -6.0 -6.6 -1.6 -2.7 18.3 20510 19613 19408

OIL

WTI (Oil) 56.7 -0.8 -1.1 14.4 5.6 -27.9 -34.1 -41.1 54 60 62

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,275.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.7 10.7 8.3 -26.3 53.3 1203 1255 1288

Palladium Spot $/Oz 996.3 -1.5 -0.6 6.9 46.3 28.8 64.3 167.1 748 783 850

Platinum Spot $/Oz 929.0 -0.9 -0.8 1.3 2.8 -23.7 -40.2 -35.2 996 1125 1250

Silver Spot $/Oz 16.9 -0.7 -2.0 -0.5 6.0 6.9 -48.2 9.2 17.2 18.5 19.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

CE

EM

EA

& Latam

Dayb

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13

No

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17

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Macro Data GDP Growth

(YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI

(YoY %)

CA Balance

(% GDP)

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Total Govt Debt

(% GDP)

Total Ext Debt

(% GDP)

Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 3.8 3.0 191 18116 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.3 0 35.7 34.7 69.6 62.4

Egypt 3.5 4.1 NA NA 29.9 16.9 -5.1 -3.8 -10.9 -9.9 101.2 88.8 NA NA

Hungary 3.8 3.5 137 13936 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.5 -2.3 -2.4 72.4 71.1 95.4 94.4

Israel 3.6 3.6 353 40536 0.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 -2.5 -2.5 60.4 60.0 24.3 22.2

Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6 NA NA 6.5 6.5 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 NA NA NA NA

Poland 3.9 3.4 519 13660 1.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.1 -2.7 -2.9 53.3 53.9 71.9 71.4

Russia 2.0 1.8 1569 10683 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 -2.5 -1.4 15.2 15.7 33.6 32.6

Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6 NA NA 4.0 4.0 -6.8 -6.8 -9.5 -9.5 17.0 20.7 NA NA

South Africa 0.8 1.7 352 6196 5.2 4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -4 -3.3 51.7 52.1 36.7 30.3

Turkey 5.2 4.1 840 10579 10.8 8.5 -4.9 -4.7 -2.0 -2.4 28.4 28.9 50.2 49.1

United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.7 NA NA 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 20.7 20.8 43.0 NA

ASIA

China 6.8 6.3 12065 8560 1.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 -4 -4 41.6 42.1 13.0 13.20088

India 6.5 7.5 2514 1924 3.1 4.4 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 -3 69.1 67.4 19.8 18.9

Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1009 3854 3.9 3.2 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 27.4 28.5 31.1 28.9

Korea 2.9 2.7 1496 29339 2.1 2.0 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 41.5 42.6 27.3 27.7

Malaysia 5.5 5.0 313 9762 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -3.2 -3.0 66.3 65.6 62.4 54.7

Philippines 6.4 5.7 313 2982 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.8 44.2 43.1 23.3 21.9

Taiwan 2.2 2.2 566 24028 0.7 1.5 12.7 11.9 -0.5 -0.4 38.1 38.5 31.8 32.6

Thailand 3.7 3.6 447 6748 0.7 1.7 9.4 8.6 -2.0 -1.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6

LATAM

Argentina 2.8 2.9 612 14 27.1 18.1 -3.5 -3.8 -6.2 -5.5 45.2 50.1 31.9 31.4

Brazil 0.7 2.6 2034 9802 3.4 3.4 -0.6 -1.4 -8.1 -7.5 75.5 76.7 26.9 25.7

Chile 1.5 2.9 276 15 2.1 1.8 -1.6 -1.3 -3.2 -3.6 23.6 25.6 79.4 85.0

Colombia 1.6 2.5 306 6209 4.3 3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 45.2 46.3 41.7 41.6

Mexico 2.0 2.4 1404 11 6.0 4.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 48.7 48.7 23.0 30.2

Peru 2.7 4.0 212 6665 3.0 2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 35.7 33.3

Venezuela -12.0 -6.0 215 6850 652.7 2349.3 -0.4 -1.3 -18.5 -18.7 17.3 16.6 65.3 66.8

CEEMEA 3.0 2.8 3961 113706 7.3 5.8 -1.3 -1.2 -3.8 -3.5 33.2 33.5 45.4 43.6

ASIA 6.1 6.0 18723 87196 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.3 -3.1 -3.1 44.8 45.0 18.0 17.8

LATAM 0.9 2.3 5059 29567 37.4 109.4 -1.6 -2.0 -5.8 -5.6 55.2 56.5 32.2 33.9

EM 4.7 4.9 27743 230470 7.8 16.8 0.5 0.3 -3.6 -3.5 45.0 45.5 24.5 24.4

US 2.2 2.4 NA NA 2.1 2.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA

Europe 2.2 2.0 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 NA NA NA NA

Japan 1.5 0.7 NA NA 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.2 -3.5 -3.1 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

13 November 2017



Interest Rates Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35

Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118

Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)


13 November 2017



P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

country's 10-year historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.82 5.5% 0.0%

DM 2.42 23.4% 13.8%

US 3.25 31.5% 20.8%

Brazil 1.74 4.2% -0.3%

Chile 1.97 -3.9% -9.6%

China 2.11 11.2% 7.2%

Colombia 1.27 -24.6% -29.1%

Czech Republic 1.45 -18.0% -21.3%

Egypt 3.29 52.0% 44.8%

Greece 0.41 -62.9% -64.5%

Hungary 1.80 41.3% 34.6%

India 3.16 1.9% -3.8%

Indonesia 3.04 -14.6% -19.3%

Korea 1.26 3.5% -2.1%

Malaysia 1.66 -17.2% -22.8%

Mexico 2.60 -5.9% -12.8%

Peru 2.45 -22.3% -24.5%

Philippines 2.61 -4.1% -11.9%

Poland 1.47 5.2% -0.5%

Qatar 1.33 -33.1% -36.9%

Russia 0.83 -13.2% -15.3%

South Africa 2.40 -2.3% -9.3%

Taiwan 2.02 11.1% 3.6%

Thailand 2.18 5.6% -2.0%

Turkey 1.39 -11.4% -16.8%

UAE 1.53 16.7% 8.1% Source: Deutsche Bank

P/BV valuation – By EM Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.82 5.5% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 2.25 5.5% -1.6%

Consumer Staples 3.97 10.9% 2.0%

Energy 0.95 -20.1% -21.9%

Financials 1.27 -16.7% -20.6%

Health Care 4.07 11.8% 2.6%

Industrial 1.45 -10.9% -15.3%

Information Technology 3.43 56.7% 46.1%

Materials 1.50 -6.0% -9.2%

Real Estate 1.53 12.4% 2.2%

Telco 2.01 -13.3% -18.6%

Utilities 1.12 -2.6% -9.3% Source: Deutsche Bank

13 November 2017



CEEMEA valuation 11/10/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Abu Dhabi Comm Bank ADCB.AD Buy 7.26 0.0 5.2 8.80 15.6 16.3 9.2 8.1 1.3 5.8 10241

Akbank AKBNK.IS Hold 9.64 0.1 12.6 10.40 16.6 16.1 7.2 6.6 1.1 2.3 9984

Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 63.20 0.0 0.4 71.50 16.3 16.4 11.7 10.8 1.8 3.6 27385

Alawwal bank 1040.SE Hold 11.80 0.0 -15.4 12.50 8.7 13.0 11.9 7.4 1.0 2.1 3597

Alinma Bank 1150.SE Hold 17.68 0.0 17.1 17.00 9.2 11.1 14.4 11.3 1.3 3.4 7019

Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 24.90 0.0 12.5 26.25 12.7 12.6 8.2 7.7 1.0 3.6 6640

Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 55.15 -0.5 -14.5 32.00 5.2 NA na na 0.4 NA 410

Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Hold 29.20 0.0 11.9 32.25 13.0 13.3 9.0 8.4 1.1 3.6 9350

Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 142 -0.8 -19.5 175.00 15.2 14.3 7.8 7.3 1.1 7.4 8390

Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 925 -0.6 26.9 360.00 25.7 25.4 28.4 24.4 6.7 1.4 7438

CIB COMI.CA Hold 78.00 0.0 9.7 73.00 36.3 33.1 10.9 9.4 3.1 2.0 5100

Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU Buy 6.02 0.0 8.1 7.30 22.4 21.1 8.2 8.5 1.6 7.6 8083

Emirates NBD ENBD.DU Buy 8.16 0.0 -3.9 12.75 16.7 16.0 6.3 6.0 0.9 5.8 12347

First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD Hold 10.15 0.0 6.1 11.40 12.2 12.5 10.7 9.9 1.2 5.1 29991

Garanti GARAN.IS Buy 10.08 -0.5 20.8 11.40 16.2 16.0 6.9 6.3 1.1 3.0 10961

Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 9.89 -2.0 -3.3 15.00 16.7 15.3 3.2 3.0 0.5 2.1 3201

Isbank ISCTR.IS Hold 6.69 -1.8 17.9 7.70 14.2 13.7 5.6 5.3 0.8 3.9 7795

National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 727 0.1 12.9 850.00 11.1 13.9 13.6 10.0 0.0 3.7 13979

NCB 1180.SE Hold 52.60 0.0 23.5 48.00 17.5 17.2 11.1 10.5 1.8 3.0 28008

Nedbank NEDJ.J Buy 209 -0.7 -16.2 225.00 14.6 14.6 8.8 8.3 1.2 6.0 6964

Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 121 5.4 -16.2 150.00 20.7 19.1 8.5 7.9 1.5 3.7 30822

RAKBANK RAKB.AD Hold 4.80 0.0 -3.0 5.05 10.8 11.9 9.6 8.8 1.0 6.2 2191

Riyad Bank 1010.SE Hold 12.06 0.0 4.5 10.50 9.0 10.0 10.7 9.4 1.0 5.4 9647

Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Hold 23.56 0.0 -3.2 24.00 11.1 11.6 9.2 8.4 1.0 4.0 11908

Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Buy 26.00 0.0 4.0 29.00 13.1 13.1 9.3 8.7 1.2 3.0 10399

Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 218 -1.0 30.1 215.00 20.2 19.6 7.7 6.8 1.4 0.0 80628

Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 168 -0.6 5.6 170.00 16.3 16.3 10.8 10.1 1.7 5.2 18955

TCS TCSq.L Sell 19.15 -0.3 81.5 7.30 31.1 29.8 19.3 16.1 5.4 1.5 3498

Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 5.74 -2.7 20.5 6.90 15.8 14.7 4.3 4.1 0.6 0.8 3715

VTB VTBRq.L Sell 2.08 -1.8 -13.0 0.80 2.3 NA na na 0.5 0.0 13453

Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 4.48 0.4 19.3 4.80 12.2 12.4 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.0 5042

Consumer Discretionary

Al Tayyar 1810.SE Buy 26.75 0.0 -27.1 45.00 5.4 4.8 7.2 7.1 0.9 3.7 1495

Alhokair 4240.SE Hold 31.45 0.0 -14.5 42.00 10.1 9.3 19.5 14.1 2.3 0.0 1761

CCC CCCP.WA Buy 250 1.3 42.9 340.00 18.6 13.8 31.6 21.2 6.2 1.0 2746

Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Hold 24.93 -1.5 16.7 28.00 7.1 6.6 14.6 12.6 1.3 1.3 4394

Herfy 6002.SE Buy 44.70 0.0 -42.7 70.00 9.8 8.9 12.5 11.4 3.2 4.9 771

Imperial IPLJ.J Buy 205 -2.1 7.3 210.00 6.2 5.6 11.6 12.0 2.0 4.2 2774

Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 142 0.0 22.7 137.00 15.6 14.3 15.6 14.5 7.5 5.0 3408

LPP LPPP.WA Hold 8,137 -1.1 65.2 8,000.00 15.5 13.1 29.1 24.8 5.8 0.4 4112

Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 193 -0.6 15.1 192.00 13.9 12.4 22.3 19.6 7.3 3.6 3425

Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 3,541 -1.5 67.7 3,552.00 1,484.1 243.5 39.0 44.0 7.1 0.3 106198

Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 125 -3.3 31.4 105.00 17.0 13.9 28.9 22.9 2.7 2.1 49030

SACO 4008.SE Hold 101 0.0 19.0 90.00 13.8 12.3 17.8 15.9 4.6 4.4 649

STAR SRRJ.J Buy 23.96 -0.8 2.7 24.00 13.8 12.2 25.1 23.4 1.6 2.0 5749

Steinhoff SNHJ.J Hold 56.00 -5.1 -25.1 70.00 8.7 7.6 10.7 9.3 0.9 0.9 16586

Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 40.22 -0.5 -0.7 46.00 6.1 4.9 11.7 10.6 1.7 1.6 974

The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Hold 139 -0.7 -16.6 142.00 8.4 8.3 13.6 13.1 3.2 5.1 2053

Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 69.07 -2.3 -17.3 92.00 7.2 6.6 12.7 10.0 3.3 6.4 2058

Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 55.30 -1.5 -25.7 61.00 8.0 8.2 17.7 13.7 2.8 5.7 3696

Consumer Staples

Almarai 2280.SE Sell 55.00 0.0 1.8 48.00 16.1 15.6 24.2 23.2 3.8 1.3 14666

AVI AVIJ.J Buy 99.84 1.3 4.2 110.00 12.2 11.0 18.5 17.8 6.7 3.8 2257

BidCorp BIDJ.J Hold 311 -0.2 20.8 305.00 15.7 14.1 22.2 23.2 4.4 1.6 7171

British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 931 -0.5 14.0 600.00 13.9 na 18.1 na 0.2 3.5 111313

Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 156 -0.3 28.4 144.00 17.2 15.2 25.8 27.5 11.1 1.2 2558

Eurocash EUR.WA Hold 29.75 -13.4 -12.9 34.00 11.0 10.5 30.4 23.8 4.1 2.5 1139

Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 6.14 -0.2 -25.1 6.80 7.7 6.7 13.4 11.3 2.5 0.0 2988

Magnit MGNT.MM Hold 7,175 -2.9 -32.0 9,000.00 9.0 7.6 17.9 13.6 3.2 3.5 11464

Magnit MGNTq.L Hold 26.70 -2.0 -39.1 37.00 9.8 8.2 19.8 15.0 3.6 3.2 12624

Massmart MSMJ.J Hold 109 -3.9 -17.9 119.00 8.0 7.3 19.2 16.9 3.5 2.6 1634

Othaim 4001.SE Hold 118 0.0 20.3 116.00 14.8 12.9 19.3 17.0 3.7 1.7 1421

Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 59.00 -0.9 -11.7 62.00 10.7 9.7 28.6 21.3 7.1 2.7 1979

Pioneer PFGJ.J Buy 117 -0.4 -27.5 130.00 12.9 8.8 22.7 14.7 3.3 2.7 1524

Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 208 -2.0 15.5 204.00 11.0 10.0 19.4 18.2 4.2 2.5 7845

Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Hold 167 -0.9 -20.0 167.00 11.5 10.5 17.4 15.8 5.1 3.8 2224

Tiger Brands TBSJ.J Hold 386 -1.0 -7.5 410.00 12.6 11.3 18.3 16.3 3.7 2.7 4456

X5 Retail Group PJPq.L Buy 41.25 0.3 27.1 57.00 8.4 6.9 19.7 14.4 4.1 1.3 11201

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

13 November 2017




Diversified Financials

Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 6.88 -2.0 -17.5 7.75 na na 12.7 10.8 na 5.8 604

Brait BATJ.J Buy 47.71 -0.9 -48.0 64.00 na na na na na NA 1679

Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 76.95 0.1 4.1 68.00 13.2 13.2 17.3 15.1 12.8 5.8 1872

FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 52.65 -0.4 -5.6 50.00 3.0 3.0 10.8 11.3 2.7 4.8 20536

Investec INVP.L Buy 505 -1.9 0.9 590.00 0.0 0.0 11.7 10.0 0.0 4.8 5999

Investec INLJ.J Buy 95.74 -1.7 0.6 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.6 1.4 4.6 5996

JSE JSEJ.J Buy 138 1.3 -19.9 144.00 11.1 8.8 15.0 12.5 3.9 4.0 823

Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 127 -0.7 4.5 185.00 5.8 5.6 11.6 11.3 2.2 6.3 4778

Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 29.42 -0.1 -6.5 31.75 na na 12.9 10.1 na 4.5 432

RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 64.20 -0.3 -7.8 63.00 2.4 2.4 11.7 11.1 2.2 5.0 6304

Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 14.62 -0.7 -3.6 16.75 2.8 2.8 15.3 12.6 2.6 2.4 608

Energy

Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.73 0.0 35.2 0.62 20.9 21.4 na na 0.5 0.0 1385

Gazprom GAZP.MM Hold 133 0.9 -11.2 115.00 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.5 0.2 6.6 49477

Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 257 -1.1 24.3 230.00 4.1 3.7 4.7 3.8 0.8 4.3 20479

Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 15.60 5.4 -49.9 27.00 8.6 7.0 26.0 11.3 0.8 6.2 796

KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Buy 11.20 1.8 45.6 12.00 1.0 1.2 7.4 12.8 0.7 1.3 4590

LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,345 -0.6 0.4 3,800.00 3.5 3.5 7.1 7.1 0.7 5.9 40287

Novatek NVTKq.L Hold 117 0.3 -9.8 102.00 10.9 10.5 14.3 13.1 2.8 2.1 35361

Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 329 -2.1 -15.3 390.00 5.2 4.4 6.1 5.0 0.9 3.1 58975

Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 440 0.3 5.2 370.00 6.5 7.3 11.0 12.4 1.3 3.6 18686

Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 30.76 -2.2 -0.7 32.00 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.7 0.4 2.0 22570

Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 29.90 -2.2 0.0 29.00 3.1 3.6 4.5 5.5 0.4 2.0 21939

Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 487 -0.8 18.1 525.00 5.3 5.8 7.6 8.5 1.5 10.8 18520

TMK TRMKq.L Buy 5.58 -3.3 9.4 7.00 6.7 7.2 12.2 20.5 1.8 2.8 1466

Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 179,050 -2.4 -6.3 250,000.00 3.6 3.4 5.8 5.7 0.7 4.7 21551

Health Care

Aspen APNJ.J Hold 316 -0.7 6.3 305.00 15.6 13.5 21.4 17.9 3.0 0.9 10034

IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.18 0.8 23.7 3.21 17.7 14.8 28.1 23.1 4.9 3.4 626

Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 24.90 -0.5 -27.2 30.60 8.8 8.4 13.8 15.1 2.6 4.4 2214

MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.50 0.0 11.9 13.80 11.1 10.8 16.9 17.2 3.2 1.6 786

Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 115 0.1 -16.0 150.00 12.3 10.5 19.1 15.1 0.0 1.3 5868

Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 604 -0.5 -16.1 860.00 12.3 10.5 19.2 15.1 0.0 1.3 5872

Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 24.86 -1.7 -25.5 29.20 8.9 8.3 13.1 12.5 2.8 4.0 2363

NMC Health NMC.L Buy 2,918 -1.2 103 3,920.00 25.1 19.7 39.9 28.3 7.3 0.4 7990

SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 28.60 0.0 -29.9 50.00 15.9 14.7 13.5 12.6 1.1 3.5 915

Industrials

Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.77 0.0 -48.1 2.96 15.4 12.2 37.8 33.2 2.7 0.0 1131

Barloworld BAWJ.J Hold 135 -1.9 9.2 128.00 5.3 4.8 14.1 11.7 1.4 2.8 1984

Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 177 -0.6 -7.0 168.00 7.7 7.9 14.7 14.1 2.7 3.0 4102

DP World DPW.DI Buy 23.76 0.0 35.7 28.00 10.1 9.3 15.6 14.1 2.0 1.7 19721

Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 1.76 0.0 -8.4 0.40 na 33.8 na 52.4 3.3 0.0 1079

Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 5.82 0.0 -1.2 5.70 7.7 6.2 8.7 7.4 1.0 3.1 6329

Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.90 0.3 -2.5 4.50 6.8 6.1 8.7 7.9 1.9 0.0 745

Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 9.46 -0.9 49.4 9.50 5.5 4.7 12.4 10.1 2.1 9.0 1691

Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 94.19 5.4 -19.9 125.00 46.9 39.0 14.8 13.4 1.5 4.2 15652

Orascom Construction OC.DI Buy 7.49 0.0 42.9 7.60 4.0 4.4 7.7 8.1 2.4 0.0 882

Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 14.70 2.4 108 10.70 7.1 7.0 9.2 9.1 1.9 2.1 1408

Insurance

Discovery DSYJ.J Sell 150 -0.1 24.6 125.00 na na 20.7 17.9 na 1.2 6715

Liberty LBHJ.J Buy 110 -2.4 -5.1 125.00 na na 10.9 9.7 na 6.5 2146

MMI MMIJ.J Hold 19.30 -1.6 -22.0 20.00 na na 9.7 9.0 na 8.1 2153

Old Mutual OMLJ.J Buy 36.20 0.4 0.2 44.00 na na 0.1 0.1 na 357.4 12012

RMI RMIJ.J Hold 39.23 0.7 -6.0 41.00 na na 15.0 12.3 na 3.0 4055

Sanlam SLMJ.J Buy 71.85 -1.3 8.9 84.00 na na 15.2 13.2 na 4.1 10226

Santam SNTJ.J Hold 255 1.1 3.9 285.00 na na na na na na #VALUE!



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Materials

Alrosa ALRS.MM Buy 74.05 -2.5 -21.3 97.00 4.7 4.2 8.7 7.8 1.7 4.8 9029

Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 417 -0.9 50.3 375.00 10.3 14.4 36.4 63.1 2.8 0.0 7600

AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Hold 140 -0.2 -12.8 130.00 7.1 5.0 55.7 16.6 1.5 0.0 4006

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 968 -0.3 53.6 800.00 6.8 6.8 17.9 18.6 1.7 3.1 12597

Erdemir EREGL.IS Sell 9.66 -1.5 71.6 7.30 6.4 7.4 9.1 11.4 2.0 8.3 8754

Evraz EVRE.L Hold 288 0.9 39.2 295.00 4.2 5.0 5.2 6.7 4.5 8.0 5356

Gold Fields GFIJ.J Hold 56.99 -0.5 24.7 52.00 4.2 4.6 15.2 25.2 1.0 2.1 3253

Harmony HARJ.J Sell 26.35 1.3 -20.3 21.00 8.2 4.1 13.6 18.9 0.4 3.8 803

Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 39.90 -1.1 -11.0 35.00 9.4 12.0 na na 0.6 0.2 1993

KGHM KGH.WA Hold 120 0.1 49.9 131.00 4.6 3.6 6.7 5.3 1.3 1.2 6637

Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 13.00 0.8 -47.2 9.50 na na na na 0.2 0.0 255

Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 53.30 0.0 36.7 31.00 24.2 18.2 86.6 46.8 2.4 0.0 16607

Magnitogorsk Steel MAGNq.L Hold 10.10 3.1 44.7 7.80 4.6 5.1 8.2 10.6 1.6 2.5 8620

Mechel MTL.N Sell 4.85 -1.0 -15.4 3.71 4.6 5.1 1.9 2.7 na 0.0 1413

Nampak NPKJ.J Buy 17.70 -2.0 -9.1 22.50 4.8 4.1 8.3 8.0 1.1 0.0 788

NLMK NLMKq.L Sell 22.30 2.1 19.9 16.80 5.9 7.1 10.1 13.6 2.0 7.4 13365

Norilsk Nickel NKELyq.L Hold 19.75 0.8 17.6 18.40 9.1 8.0 12.6 11.3 8.8 9.6 31005

Northam NHMJ.J Hold 53.10 2.2 25.0 48.00 24.1 17.4 na na 2.3 0.0 1292

Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 36.10 -1.1 12.7 40.00 6.1 5.6 24.2 15.0 2.3 2.8 644

PHOSAGRO PHORq.L Hold 14.25 0.7 -6.6 13.00 7.1 6.5 9.6 9.1 3.1 5.2 5536

Polymetal POLYP.L Hold 889 0.4 11.4 870.00 8.2 7.5 14.5 13.1 4.1 2.1 4992

RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 33.85 -0.9 -9.4 31.00 29.5 443.8 373.2 na 0.6 0.0 453

SABIC 2010.SE Hold 99.70 0.0 9.0 95.00 7.8 7.3 15.5 15.0 1.7 4.0 79756

Severstal SVSTq.L Hold 14.90 0.7 -2.0 14.20 5.3 5.3 7.8 8.2 3.5 9.6 12103

Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 20.34 0.6 -23.6 15.50 6.9 5.6 na 31.7 1.8 1.5 2585

United Company RUSAL 0486.HK Sell 5.46 1.1 65.4 4.32 8.8 7.8 6.9 5.9 2.3 2.7 10631

Real Estate

Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.24 0.0 -14.8 3.00 7.2 7.6 9.1 9.8 0.8 4.9 4795

Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 18.64 -0.9 5.2 22.00 28.9 26.2 20.5 17.3 0.9 0.0 911

Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.59 0.0 56.1 3.20 4.9 4.6 6.2 6.0 1.5 7.0 5913

Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 8.96 0.0 45.8 6.00 22.4 20.5 39.4 32.3 0.5 0.0 2580

Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 12.30 0.0 -28.2 12.10 58.2 43.2 71.4 44.0 1.2 0.0 2788

Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.24 0.0 -15.2 2.70 12.4 11.1 14.6 13.1 1.7 4.5 7937

Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 7.87 0.0 12.7 10.70 8.3 7.6 9.2 8.5 1.2 2.6 15341

Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 13.15 -1.8 -12.2 14.50 12.1 11.9 14.1 10.3 0.7 0.0 456

Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.62 -1.4 -20.0 3.19 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.7 0.8 0.0 2578

Equites EQUJ.J Buy 20.85 -0.7 25.8 21.50 18.3 12.5 7.8 17.1 1.4 0.0 430

Etalon Group ETLNGq.L Buy 4.04 -1.0 26.3 3.40 11.8 5.1 17.6 6.4 1.1 1.2 1178

Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 40.54 -1.7 19.6 42.00 20.4 19.4 10.4 17.5 0.9 0.0 2947

Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 17.08 -1.3 -1.7 18.80 12.3 11.9 5.4 8.1 0.4 0.0 1359

Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 24.80 -1.1 -8.7 27.00 13.1 12.3 17.0 12.8 0.8 0.0 4934

Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 107 -2.2 -13.0 125.00 17.0 17.2 18.9 14.7 1.1 0.0 1843

LSR LSRGq.L Hold 2.86 -1.5 -17.1 2.60 6.1 5.4 8.8 6.5 1.2 9.3 1473

Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Sell 18.90 -1.9 -18.3 18.00 10.6 9.7 8.6 7.9 0.6 0.0 343

Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 4.01 0.0 32.9 3.80 9.8 7.3 13.2 8.3 1.3 0.0 525

Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.68 -1.0 -9.0 11.50 16.8 15.1 13.0 12.1 1.1 0.0 3754Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 141 -2.5 17.2 140.00 34.8 33.6 17.2 22.7 1.7 0.0 3924SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.80 -0.9 -18.6 5.80 12.4 12.5 10.5 9.9 0.8 0.0 775SODIC OCDI.CA Buy 18.23 0.0 25.8 16.40 9.5 5.8 12.5 8.7 1.5 0.0 350TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.33 0.0 5.5 11.00 12.9 12.2 14.7 13.6 0.7 1.6 1091Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 19.50 -0.3 -0.5 20.00 13.5 11.6 11.1 12.7 1.0 0.0 933

Telecommunication ServicesDigi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 35.00 0.2 -12.4 45.00 5.2 4.6 13.3 12.9 8.4 0.0 878Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 17.20 0.0 -8.5 15.10 6.0 5.7 14.1 13.7 3.3 5.3 40725MegaFon MFONq.L Buy 10.63 -1.4 12.5 15.50 4.9 4.6 14.0 11.6 2.7 5.5 5918Mobily 7020.SE Sell 13.58 0.0 -43.4 12.00 5.3 5.0 na na 0.7 0.0 2788MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 124 -3.0 -6.0 136.00 6.5 6.0 27.0 18.8 2.1 5.6 15548MTS MBT.N Buy 11.05 1.2 21.3 12.50 5.2 4.9 11.2 11.3 4.8 8.1 10812Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 84.00 5.4 -17.5 107.00 3.9 3.4 12.7 10.7 1.1 4.8 7390Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.52 0.0 -21.0 1.15 1.8 na 7.1 na 1.3 9.6 882Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 69.90 0.0 -3.5 80.00 5.2 5.1 12.9 13.5 2.2 5.7 37278Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 13.61 0.0 20.2 16.90 6.3 5.4 7.7 6.6 0.7 7.3 1317Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 50.50 -7.2 -34.9 63.00 2.9 3.2 9.2 9.2 0.9 8.4 1805Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 5.97 -2.8 3.2 6.30 5.0 4.4 12.8 8.8 4.1 0.0 5410Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 13.85 -1.5 29.7 18.00 6.3 5.4 12.2 10.0 2.1 10.2 7865Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 152 -0.7 -4.6 166.00 7.9 7.3 17.3 15.8 9.3 5.2 15575

UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 484 1.0 31.0 500.00 7.7 7.5 13.4 18.1 1.0 6.8 11777Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 177 5.4 -22.2 215.00 13.2 12.7 12.2 11.0 2.1 4.2 5339



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Latam valuation 11/10/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 90.04 -0.5 27.8 87.00 19.4 19.3 16.2 15.1 3.0 3.7 14923

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 31.30 -3.3 10.8 41.00 11.7 12.4 6.8 5.8 0.9 3.4 27425

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 38.63 -0.5 5.3 45.00 10.7 12.0 11.9 9.9 1.2 3.2 9289

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 112 -2.5 18.5 143.00 16.6 17.6 12.4 10.8 2.6 4.7 16277

Bladex BLX.N Hold 28.30 -1.0 -3.9 25.00 8.5 9.3 12.8 11.4 1.1 5.5 1112

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 9.99 -1.0 14.7 8.00 15.6 18.0 9.5 8.7 1.7 3.3 60790

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 207 -1.1 34.0 242.00 19.4 18.9 14.4 12.5 2.5 4.9 16475

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 12.69 -0.5 23.4 11.00 20.0 21.0 10.7 9.6 2.1 5.4 82540

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 8.89 -1.2 0.0 8.00 12.4 16.2 12.9 11.3 2.0 5.8 33331

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 30.39 -1.5 39.0 29.00 18.7 18.2 16.1 15.4 2.9 3.7 14317

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.15 -1.8 13.4 10.00 15.7 15.6 11.7 10.8 1.8 4.2 11047

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 44.34 -1.7 76.0 32.00 17.7 15.5 26.8 24.0 5.8 3.4 1205

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 17.74 -3.6 73.0 16.50 14.0 11.4 na na 2.1 0.0 2499

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 26.82 -2.4 76.5 23.00 16.1 13.9 16.8 16.4 3.4 5.0 1323

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 5,932 -1.2 17.9 7,215.00 17.7 16.7 27.0 24.4 3.2 1.4 22900

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 130 -2.3 -6.0 187.50 10.4 9.0 18.6 14.4 2.0 0.6 9128

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 15.31 -1.2 -10.4 18.80 10.9 9.5 71.3 34.3 11.0 0.1 6721

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 33.57 -3.0 44.1 34.00 16.0 13.5 31.2 26.1 7.7 1.0 7300

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 79.26 1.4 23.7 94.00 9.3 8.4 17.0 15.2 2.8 2.0 3571

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 35.25 -3.9 3.7 54.00 6.8 5.9 10.5 10.4 19.7 9.5 1749

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 75.47 -2.5 -18.5 97.00 12.1 11.0 11.5 12.8 10.8 8.2 2858

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,040 -0.9 7.3 23,400.00 6.7 6.2 33.1 20.5 0.8 1.3 2384

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.12 -0.8 24.6 6.15 16.3 13.9 28.7 24.2 7.9 4.0 96107

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 124 -0.2 24.0 106.00 10.2 7.8 23.0 17.9 3.1 2.0 11440

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 12.60 -4.3 -14.6 15.50 9.3 7.5 27.4 14.7 2.4 0.4 10067

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 71.70 -3.1 30.3 114.00 8.0 7.3 33.2 24.9 2.3 0.3 5817

CCU CCU.N Hold 27.50 1.3 31.1 25.00 10.6 9.7 25.4 22.0 2.8 2.2 5081

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,797 -1.4 1.1 2,000.00 8.9 8.3 18.0 17.3 1.2 1.7 8099

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 37.23 -1.0 8.7 40.00 6.6 5.6 17.9 15.7 1.2 0.0 1882

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 68.73 -0.1 8.2 80.00 8.9 7.9 18.9 17.2 2.4 2.6 14439

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 35.00 0.0 8.1 38.00 11.5 9.3 18.6 14.0 1.6 2.3 1307

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 29.22 -0.2 30.0 32.00 10.3 9.0 26.5 22.4 3.4 2.4 4610

Femsa FMX.N Buy 86.03 -0.9 12.9 114.00 9.1 7.6 22.2 19.3 2.6 1.5 30783

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 250 -1.6 2.7 310.00 9.1 8.3 15.2 13.9 2.6 1.1 5662

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 43.71 -2.1 0.7 58.00 9.6 7.9 27.5 20.0 3.2 0.7 10781

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 33.33 0.0 -3.3 41.00 13.6 12.1 24.4 20.6 15.5 4.7 5395

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 11.10 -2.0 -9.1 24.25 6.4 5.1 19.9 32.1 6.1 5.8 767

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 28.60 -3.7 23.6 26.50 9.9 8.7 28.5 22.7 9.2 0.9 3771

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.30 -0.9 -2.9 44.00 7.3 6.5 16.0 13.9 1.2 0.0 3804

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 44.52 -1.0 30.2 47.20 13.7 12.5 24.2 22.0 5.0 5.5 40768

Diversified Financials

B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 22.40 -2.2 35.1 23.00 16.8 14.0 20.7 19.3 0.7 8.5 14097

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 31.94 -1.2 26.8 45.00 10.7 9.9 16.4 15.7 na 3.9 993

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 29.15 -1.6 15.4 36.00 1.2 1.2 6.4 5.6 1.2 0.9 600

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 18.20 -4.6 -40.9 35.00 1.9 1.9 7.6 6.6 1.7 4.2 1550

Energy

Petrobras PETR4.SA Hold 16.72 -0.4 11.9 20.80 5.4 4.5 19.9 8.6 0.8 0.2 66693

Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 17.53 -0.2 2.9 20.80 6.5 5.5 20.9 9.1 1.2 0.1 99954

Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Hold 7.05 2.0 -26.9 8.00 15.8 14.9 6.4 5.2 5.2 2.3 7059

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 24.86 -1.3 15.6 31.00 24.1 19.8 78.9 57.8 11.3 0.0 7842

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 123 -1.1 35.4 142.00 9.5 8.3 14.6 12.1 2.7 1.5 5217

Embraer ERJ.N Hold 19.12 -2.1 0.2 22.00 5.6 6.4 11.1 16.4 0.8 3.4 3537

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 20.50 -3.3 50.5 27.00 19.2 17.6 70.8 85.8 na 0.2 7124

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 30.46 -0.8 -15.6 35.00 8.1 5.5 na 9.2 1.5 0.0 1123

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 12.93 -2.8 58.5 15.00 9.2 8.1 36.7 14.4 2.6 0.8 7841

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 9.71 -0.2 -35.4 12.00 393.2 59.1 na 100.4 19.2 0.0 9825

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 23.00 -0.8 -18.0 26.00 12.9 12.1 15.6 15.0 4.0 1.0 19108

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 36.46 -0.5 34.8 38.00 na na 11.6 10.4 1.8 3.5 3603

Materials

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 968 -0.3 53.6 800.00 6.8 6.8 17.9 18.6 1.7 3.1 12597

Cemex CX.N Buy 8.10 -1.7 0.9 11.40 7.7 6.6 16.9 11.3 1.3 0.0 11617

Vale VALE.N Buy 10.07 -0.6 32.2 12.00 5.0 4.7 9.1 9.1 1.1 2.8 52109

Telecommunication Services

America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.27 -0.9 37.4 21.00 6.0 5.5 19.3 17.5 4.1 0.9 56908

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 14.93 -1.4 16.2 21.00 6.3 5.8 17.8 14.5 1.2 5.5 25212

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 17.52 -2.5 49.4 22.00 4.8 4.3 25.6 18.4 1.5 0.5 8481



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Appendix1

Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

46 % 46 %

8 %37 % 32 %

18 %0

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Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

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Additional Information

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, trading and principal trading revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Trade ideas for equities can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. A SOLAR idea represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less than two weeks and no more than six months. In addition to SOLAR ideas, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if an opinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at defined intervals. Updates are at the sole

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discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst’s judgment. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice, and investment transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance calculations exclude transaction costs, unless otherwise indicated. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other parties. The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank. Details regarding organizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest with respect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer, found on the Legal tab. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – by construction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including their tax

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position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect to any information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and is not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient will make an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts or for any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financially sophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particular transactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering of its products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving this directly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com on each company’s research page and under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Analysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulations, including those regarding contacts with issuer companies. Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized under German Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the

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European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request. Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited. India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registered office at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 7180 4444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registration nos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency Derivatives Segment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registration no.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have received administrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may have debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the “Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm. Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are based on a 12-month forecast period..

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Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by Deutsche Bank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents. Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers should independently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank research may not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branch may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.

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Australia: Retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG

David Folkerts-Landau

Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer

Research

Michael Spencer Head of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

Steve Pollard Head of Americas Research

Global Head of Equity Research

Anthony Klarman Global Head of Debt Research

Paul Reynolds Head of EMEA

Equity Research

Dave Clark Head of APAC

Equity Research

Pam Finelli Global Head of

Equity Derivatives Research

Andreas Neubauer Head of Research - Germany

Spyros Mesomeris Global Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

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Documents

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/11/13/be21d597...2017/11/13 · Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185 Patrick Mann