CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global

Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date 9 November 2017

Thursday,9 November 2017

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.

Pascal Moura

Head of Research

(+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected]

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

(+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected]

CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE Tatneft (Hold, TP RUB525.00) - Good dividend news sparks the stock rally; we downgrade Tatneft to Hold

TARGET PRICE CHANGE Emaar Malls Alert (Hold, TP AED2.70) - Namshi weighing on margin; HOLD

COMPANY UPDATE Arabtec Holding Alert (Hold, TP AED2.96) - 3Q17 still showing receivables growing: Hold CCC (Buiy, TP PLN340.00) - 3Q: soft earnings in relatively unimportant quarter Sberbank Alert (Buy, TP RUB215.00) - October 2017 RAS results: core revenues strength

SECTOR UPDATE Earnings sensitivity - Testing USD65/bbl Brent and RUB60/ USD FX rate

LATAM Companies TARGET PRICE CHANGE Multiplus (Buy, TP BRL54.00) - Expanding the network; raising 2017 to reflect non-recurring tax gain COMPANY UPDATE Copa Holdings, S.A. Alert (Buy, TP USD137.00) - Sep Q beat; raising 2017 margin guide again; introducing 2018 outlook GOL S.A. (Buy, TP USD27.00) - Sep Q beat; plenty of opportunity for margin expansion going forward GOL S.A. Alert - Better-than-expected op. results; EPS beat boosted by FX/tax credit TIM Brasil - Multiple tail winds: +17% 3Q EBITDA growth SECTOR UPDATE Metals & Mining Alert - Daily prices and news: China's October trade data relatively subdued

STRATEGY EM Daily - Real opportunity – Go long BRL (vs. ILS) EMEA Snap - Poland: NBP: Steady for now, yet datacontingent path is nigh MENA Equity Flows - Qatar fund flows turn positive in October COFFEE report - Data from 7-Nov-2017

MACRO Brazil Update - Trying to salvage the pension reform Macro Bites - A Happy 12 Month Trumpiversary For Markets?

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Magnitogorsk Steel MMK LI 10.2 5.3 Telecom Egypt ETEL EY 0.8 4.7 RAKBANK RAKBANK UH 1.4 4.2 IDH IDHC LN 4.1 3.6 Brait BAT SJ 3.5 3.3 Tekfen Holding TKFEN TI 3.8 3.3 Telkom SA Ltd TKG SJ 3.8 3.1 Massmart MSM SJ 7.9 3.1 Emaar Economic City EMAAR AB 3.2 3.1 Surgutneftegaz SNGSP RX 0.5 3.0 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Damac Properties DAMAC DB 1.0 -4.7 Lonmin Plc LON SJ 0.9 -4.7 NMC Health NMC LN 40.1 -4.7 Steinhoff SNH SJ 4.2 -3.7 Al Tayyar ALTAYYAR AB 6.9 -3.5 SACO SCH AB 27.4 -3.0 Dana Gas DANA UH 0.2 -2.7 mBank MBK PW 127.3 -2.5 Northam NHM SJ 3.6 -2.4 Turkcell TCELL TI 3.6 -2.2

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

GOL S.A. GOL US 21.5 12.2 Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 14.9 7.0 Natura NATU3 BS 9.1 6.6 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 10.2 6.2 B2W BTOW3 BS 5.8 5.7 Azul S.A. AZUL US 24.7 5.3 Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3 BS 25.0 5.0 TIM Participacoes TSU US 18.3 4.5 Minerva BEEF3 BS 3.4 4.3 Santander Brasil BSBR US 9.2 4.2 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Gentera GENTERA*

1.0 -2.3

Gruma GRUMAB MM 13.3 -2.2 Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA MM 2.4 -2.1 MercadoLibre MELI US 260.1 -2.1 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.9 -1.8 Cencosud CENCOSUD CI 3.0 -1.7 Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA MM 1.7 -1.1 Banorte GFNORTEO

6.0 -1.1

Kimberly-Clark de

KIMBERA MM 1.8 -1.0 Embraer ERJ US 19.9 -0.9

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

Distributed on: 09/11/2017 04:46:06 GMT

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Russia / CIS LatamGeorge Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Ivan Kachkovski Banks/Financials +44 207 5411735 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Tomasz Krukowski Consumer +48 22 579 8732 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063 Marcel Moraes Retail +1 904 271-2470

Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949

Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 415 262 2028South Africa Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191

Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267 GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks/Financials +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732George Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013

George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774

Middle EastCE3 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Kazim Andac Banks/Financials +90 212 3190315 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Ivan Kachkovski Banks/Financials +44 207 5411735 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Tomasz Krukowski Consumer +48 22 579 8732

Alizerra Kharazi Economist +44 207 5450083Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Elina Ribakova Chief Economist +44 207 5471340

Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864

Source: Deutsche Bank

9 November 2017


Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES ZTE-A and -H – Caution, speed bump ahead; initiating ZTE-H with Hold, ZTE-A with Sell (James Wang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/835-630F/60455204/0900b8c08dc4f20c.pdf Link REIT (0823.HK, Hold) – Sustainable high single-digit DPU CAGR; Hold on fair valuation (Jeffrey Gao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/713-355A/57960012/0900b8c08dcaa86f.pdf

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Uni-President China (0220.HK, Buy) – Channel restructuring proves successful; upgrading to Buy (Anne Ling) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/934-1EBE/58781633/ecf35cb2-8ed9-4f12-adbd-218093604d2b_604.pdf Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.BK, Buy) – Brighter credit quality and customer engagement outlook (Peach Patharavanakul) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/757-7570/58944443/0900b8c08dcc37b4.pdf

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES Future Land (1030.HK, Buy) – Sales to beat RMB110bn in 2017F; earnings to surge in 2H17F (Jeffrey Gao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/813-4D34/57896640/0900b8c08dcc3497.pdf Hong Kong Exchange (0388.HK, Sell) – 3Q17 results: Elevated expectation (Franco Lam) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/629-B570/56327357/0900b8c08dcc2c8b.pdf Olympus (7733.T, Hold) – Guiding to better growth in 2H (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1022-DCE4/57285189/c6d6b9c0-6938-4ee0-a6bc-8629009062e3_604.pdf Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AX, Hold) – 1Q18 update strong, but regulatory risk remains (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/629-8D21/56366730/0900b8c08dcbdc21.pdf Nufarm (NUF.AX, Sell) – Acquisition of European herbicide product portfolio for US$90m (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/577-450D/56200202/0900b8c08dcc2966.pdf CJ Cheiljedang Corp (097950.KS, Buy) – Multiple growth drivers to enable c.20% OP CAGR until 2019E (Jihyun Song) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/847-FEA1/59783755/0900b8c08dcc851c.pdf CJ E&M (130960.KQ, Sell) – 3Q witnesses large miss, along with earnings guidance cut (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/669-A192/56364164/0900b8c08dcc2845.pdf GS Retail (007070.KS, Buy) – 3Q17 earnings largely in line, excluding one-off (Jeremy Kim) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/831-B095/50840996/0900b8c08dcb4eca.pdf Mando (204320.KS, Buy) – Second verdict largely remains a one-off; maintaining Buy (Ryan Kwon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/813-C527/60124647/0900b8c08dcc5923.pdf Wistron Neweb (6285.TW, Buy) – 3Q17 EPS missed on margin erosion from component price hike (James Chiu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/597-CD2D/58525669/0900b8c08dc23b6d.pdf Bharat Forge Limited (BFRG.BO, Buy) – Strong revenue traction continues (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/546-35C8/57283825/e98b28bd-afcb-4075-bdb8-f4ced861ac4f_604.pdf CESC Ltd (CESC.BO, Buy) – Restructuring before the demerger - EGM on 15-Dec (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/543-1C8F/58020609/e61a32c7-624b-4e5f-b00b-1ce05abd186f_604.pdf Petronet LNG Limited (PLNG.BO, Buy) – Strong volume growth drives earnings beat, Reiterate Buy (Harshad Katkar) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/595-CEE1/58546270/0900b8c08dcc5825.pdf Shree Cement (SHCM.BO, Buy) – Market share gains continue, margin surprises positively (Amit Murarka) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/633-605B/60725529/0900b8c08dccb2be.pdf Voltas (VOLT.BO, Sell) – A good quarter; but headwinds ahead (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/516-A745/58075825/f101e3a3-f4b5-4944-9b0b-31c111f8a844_604.pdf

MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – A quiet day as market awaits progress on tax reform… (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9272-A351/61715227/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2017-11-08_9693b9e8-c3fe-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf Dollar Bloc Strategy – Tune AUD swap to a common frequency and pay 3Y/5Y/7Y butterfly (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/964-9CCA/54092800/54fca01b-1191-4b3f-8dd4-37e757575e3f_604.pdf

HONG KONG / CHINA MGM China (2282.HK, Buy) – 3Q in-line; Cotai may add junkets rather soon (Karen Tang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/877-CA58/59934702/263fb4ec-6787-4755-ab7c-4317179f6709_604.pdf

9 November 2017


Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

HONG KONG / CHINA Wharf (0004.HK, Hold) – HSI Company announces index treatment for REIC spin-off (Jason Ching) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/717-8043/54678542/0900b8c08dcbff05.pdf

JAPAN Chiba Bank (8331.T, Hold) – Domestic lending up a healthy 6.1% (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/535-E56F/55531477/0900b8c08dcc4fbb.pdf INPEX (1605.T, Buy) – 1H FY3/18 Result - NPAT in line with Dbe (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/730-2069/54866836/0900b8c08dcbe8f9.pdf Japan Display (6740.T, Sell) – 2Q results: challenging conditions to persist in 2H FY3/18 (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/535-B293/56890308/0900b8c08dcc80cd.pdf Mitsubishi UFJ lease (8593.T, Hold) – 2Q: Unchanged guidance seems conservative; CEO Yanai's briefing (Hiroshi Torii) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/256-F571/57408144/0900b8c08dafbb69.pdf Nissan Motor (7201.T, Hold) – 2Q initial impression – Charges around inspection issue lower outlook (Kurt Sanger) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/713-FCB1/55014378/0900b8c08dcbdf7a.pdf Non-life insurance sector – 1H preview for 3 non-life firms: Extent of downward revision, share buyback (Masao Muraki) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/558-6ACA/54732373/0900b8c08dcbe50e.pdf Obayashi (1802.T, Hold) – 2Q results: neutral first impression (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/229-7DD8/54815727/0900b8c08dcbd217.pdf Shimizu (1803.T, Hold) – 2Q results: negative first impression (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/229-F7B7/55440311/0900b8c08dcbd2a5.pdf Shizuoka Bank (8355.T, Hold) – In line: one-off factors cancel out (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/538-8D3C/51564857/0900b8c08dcb0dad.pdf SMC (6273.T, Buy) – 2Q results: No surprises, but 2H guidance still looks cautious (Takeshi Kitaura) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/225-4680/55038356/0900b8c08dcc4ada.pdf Sumitomo Rubber (5110.T, Hold) – 3Q first impression: negative pricing surpise drives 3Q miss (Gordon Heaton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/544-B006/56988238/0900b8c08dcc9d4a.pdf Sysmex (6869.T, Buy) – Another robust quarter, guidance lifted modestly (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1022-490B/58083767/e34581f8-130f-4c4e-a4b3-870af8b60fb3_604.pdf Universal Entertainment (6425.T, Buy) – Glimpse of good news in 2QFY18 (Jeffrey Ng) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/193-12C0/58657938/0900b8c08dcc5d1e.pdf Yamada Denki (9831.T, Hold) – Results comment: OP down on discount sales (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/234-04FC/57885397/0900b8c08dcc95d0.pdf

AUSTRALIA Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AX, Hold) – 1Q18 update ahead of expectations (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/632-F6B6/53134559/0900b8c08dcbb5fb.pdf Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP.AX, Sell) – AGM - Growth to be 2H weighted (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/548-4B61/55895622/39c976c0-fd9d-4306-a56d-724fc29e0452_604.pdf Eclipx Group (ECX.AX, Buy) – Result in line with DBe, acquisitions performing to expectations (Wassim Kisirwani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/632-5EA4/55693432/0900b8c08dbd572d.pdf James Hardie Industries (JHX.AX, Buy) – European acquisition of Fermacell for US$549m (Emily Smith) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/501-B877/55296832/0900b8c08dcc14a7.pdf

KOREA/TAIWAN Celltrion (068270.KQ, Sell) – Q3-17 preliminary results have limited implication on investment thesis (Sanghi Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/736-8643/52637096/0900b8c08dc99f8c.pdf DGB FG (139130.KS, Buy) – More M&A than results (Jeehoon Park) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/805-FBA5/58527305/0900b8c08dcc5e80.pdf Eclat Textile (1476.TW, Buy) – 3Q17 first take: earnings better than feared (John Chou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/611-E9D9/56079866/0900b8c08dcc5317.pdf Hyundai HS (057050.KS, Hold) – 3Q17 earnings ahead of DBe on lower SO commission burden (Jihyun Song) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/823-A47A/56185392/0900b8c08dcc7d96.pdf Kingpak (6238.TWO, Buy) – On track auto business (Grace Hsu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/617-4D89/54529451/0900b8c08dcbfb74.pdf

9 November 2017



KOREA/TAIWAN WPG Holdings (3702.TW, Buy) – 3Q results beat (Grace Hsu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/619-C6E3/53223118/0900b8c08dc8fa4c.pdf

INDIA GSK Consumer (GLSM.NS, Buy) – Getting out of the woods (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/691-3DB8/56479721/0900b8c08dcc326e.pdf India Consumer – The curious case of "cost savings" (Manoj Menon) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/674-33B6/59612216/0900b8c08dcccd5c.pdf

ASEAN CapitaLand Ltd (CATL.SI, Buy) – 3Q in line; ROE on target; accounting change a precursor? (Joy Wang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/932-7AC7/53968140/9be8d774-3619-4e77-b020-29b59d4cff6b_604.pdf ST Engineering (STEG.SI, Buy) – 2017's q/q earnings momentum is improving, and 4Q would be better (Joshua Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/710-3BEF/54284522/6ebb1a44-c41f-11e7-bf02-2d390be1d4c2_604.pdf Central Pattana (CPN.BK, Hold) – Quarterly profit up on extra gains (Nash Shivaruchiwong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/602-8FD9/55492339/0900b8c08dcc3d01.pdf PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK, Hold) – 3Q17 earnings: in-line with consensus (Wattana Punyawattanakul) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/687-C3EE/55257828/0d122d52-37c9-436a-81ad-3bc14545f5d5_604.pdf Sansiri (SIRI.BK, Hold) – Sansiri goes shopping, gives PACE a look (Nash Shivaruchiwong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/602-C5B2/54944844/0900b8c08dcc3da1.pdf Aboitiz Power (AP.PS, Hold) – 3Q: Hydros drive outperformance (Gio Dela-Rosa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/834-6503/55695460/0900b8c08dcc5e7a.pdf Megaworld (MEG.PS, Hold) – 9M17 earnings +11%, ahead; strong office preleasing in Fort Bonifacio (Carl Sy) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/867-4180/56195745/0900b8c08dcc67fa.pdf Semirara Mining and Power (SCC.PS, Buy) – 3Q17 profit disappoints; Better outlook ahead (Klyne Resullar) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/857-A4C2/57312726/0900b8c08dcaee01.pdf SM Investments Corporation (SM.PS, Hold) – 3Q: On track with rise in profits from retail (Gio Dela-Rosa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/723-B254/55067100/0900b8c08dcc43e1.pdf Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc (VLL.PS, Hold) – Rental segment boosts 3Q17 profit; OFW presales rebound (Carl Sy) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/823-1917/55629525/0900b8c08dcc0504.pdf

APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess China Healthcare Corporate Day 27 Oct @Hong Kong dbAccess Indonesia Conference 7-9 Nov @Jakarta, Indonesia dbAccess Global Quant Conference 2017 14-15 Nov @Hong Kong dbAccess Thailand SET Corporate Day - 22-23 Nov @Singapore

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EPS changes

NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA

Arabtec Holding United Arab

0.0 0.1 +0.0 0.2 -61.1 0.0 0.1 +126.3 0.3 -73.6 Hold Hold 3.0 3.0

Emaar Malls United Arab

0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.2 0.2 -1.6 Hold Hold 2.9 2.7 -6.9

Tatneft Russia 1.0 1.0 -2.3 0.9 0.9 -1.7 Buy Hold 520.0 525.0 +1.0

LATAM

GOL S.A. Brazil 0.5 0.9 +88.0 0.0 6,079.2 0.8 0.8 +0.2 1.4 1.4 -0.0 Buy Buy 27.0 27.0

Multiplus Brazil 3.1 3.3 +8.0 2.9 14.9 3.4 3.4 -0.1 3.3 1.6 3.9 3.8 -0.1 3.9 0.0 Buy Buy 50.0 54.0 +8.0

ASIA

Link REIT Hong Kong 2.2 2.5 +15.3 2.1 2.7 +25.9 2.9 Sell Hold 48.6 69.9 +43.8

Uni-President China China 0.2 0.2 +12.9 0.2 -10.7 0.2 0.3 +33.1 0.3 3.5 0.2 0.3 +32.5 0.3 4.2 Hold Buy 6.0 8.5 +41.7

Petronet LNG Limited India 13.6 14.4 +5.4 15.7 -8.1 16.7 17.2 +2.9 32.8 -47.6 18.6 19.1 +2.7 34.8 -45.1 Buy Buy 290.0 315.0 +8.6

MGM China Hong Kong 0.6 0.7 +3.1 1.1 -42.1 0.7 0.7 -2.8 1.5 -53.7 1.1 0.9 -13.4 Buy Buy 20.0 20.0

Bharat Forge Limited India 18.6 19.2 +3.0 55.9 -65.7 25.5 26.5 +3.8 30.6 31.2 +2.0 Buy Buy 725.0 775.0 +6.9

Future Land Development

China 0.4 0.5 +2.0 0.6 0.6 +5.4 0.7 0.8 +14.1 Buy Buy 5.2 5.8 +12.4

CESC Ltd India 72.4 73.2 +1.1 85.6 83.0 -3.0 100.7 97.2 -3.5 Buy Buy 1,130.0 1,250.0 +10.6

Galaxy Hong Kong 2.3 2.3 -0.5 2.1 5.8 2.6 2.6 -2.3 2.6 0.5 Hold Hold 58.6 58.6

CJ E&M Korea 12,948. 12,324.

-4.8 4,780.4 4,406.9 -7.8 4,718.6 4,609.1 -2.3 Sell Sell 70,000.

75,000.

+7.1

CJ Cheiljedang Corp Korea 20,870. 19,863.

-4.8 28,531.

-30.4 29,836.

32,262.

+8.1 33,741.

37,324.

+10.6 Buy Buy 410,000

460,00

+12.2

GSK Consumer India 182.4 166.1 -8.9 207.8 186.7 -10.1 218.7 Buy Buy 6,500.0 6,500.0

Wistron Neweb Taiwan 6.5 5.8 -9.6 7.8 6.7 -14.1 9.0 7.7 -14.4 Buy Buy 97.0 100.0 +3.1

Shree Cement India 508.2 439.0 -13.6 671.3 589.2 -12.2 923.0 850.0 -7.9 Buy Buy 21,200. 21,000.

-0.9

Mando Korea 17,558. 5,174.4 -70.5 11,317.

-54.3 24,994.

24,810.

-0.7 29,150.

28,816.

-1.1 Buy Buy 380,000

375,00

-1.3

Hong Kong Exchange Hong Kong Sell Sell 170.7 184.0 +7.8

Siam Commercial Bank Thailand 13.3 20.1 -34.1 14.2 16.0 Hold Buy 154.0 167.0 +8.4

Voltas India Sell Sell 400.0 450.0 +12.5

ZTE China 1.0 1.3 -24.3 1.0 1.1 Hold Hold 15.1 26.5 +75.5

ZTE-A China 1.0 1.0 1.1 Sell 23.0 Source: Bloomberg Finance

9 November 2017



Solar Portfolio

8-Nov-17

Companies RIC Buy/Sell Promoted Entry Price Current Price Performance

CE3

X5 RETAIL GROUP PJPq.L Buy 19/10/2017 40.26 40.85 1.47%

MENA

NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 3,183.00 15.70%

TELECOM EGYPT ETEL.CA Buy 01/10/2017 12.95 12.73 -1.70%

SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY 7010.SE Buy 01/10/2017 70.50 69.20 -1.84%

HERFY 6002.SE Buy 23/10/2017 46.74 45.00 -3.72%

GULF INT'L SERVICES GISS.QA Buy 01/10/2017 19.99 15.65 -21.71%

NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 3,183.00 15.70%

Russia

TRANSNEFT TRNF_p.MM Buy 01/10/2017 177,400.00 184,250.00 3.86%

GAZPROM GAZP.MM Buy 23/10/2017 126.92 131.77 3.82%

NOVATEK NVTKq.L Sell 23/10/2017 118.29 116.70 1.34%

SASOL SOLJ.J Sell 27/10/2017 40,874.81 43,550.00 -6.54%

South Africa

STANDARD BANK SBKJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 15,781.00 16,599.00 5.18%

BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP BGAJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 13,900.00 14,410.00 3.67%

HYPROP HYPJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 10,572.00 10,750.00 1.68%

Turkey

VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS Sell 01/10/2017 6.27 6.02 3.99%

AKBANK AKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 9.40 10.04 6.81%

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

8 November 2017

Oil & Gas

Tatneft

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

Oil & GasPrice at 7 Nov 2017 (RUB) 491.95

Price Target (RUB) 525.00

52-week range (RUB) 491.95 - 323.25

RecommendationChange

Emerging EuropeRussia

Company

Tatneft

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker

TATN.MM TATN RX MCX TATN

Date8 November 2017

Good dividend news sparks the stockrally; we downgrade Tatneft to HoldCorrected (and improved) interpretation of the dividend announcementIn our Tatneft report yesterday, we erroneously used RUB22.78/share interimdividend for the first nine months of 2017, which – together with the company'sencouraging comments on its principles of cash distribution – already made usexcited. The actual recommended dividend amount, however, was much bigger:RUB27.78/share. The dividend yield on the ords is 5.6% (6.3% before the shareprice growth that took place yesterday on the back of the dividend news) andon the prefs 7.7% (8.5%). Note that the implied pay-out ratio based on our IFRSearnings forecasts for 9M17 is 61% vs. our assumption of 50%. We downgradeTatneft from Buy to Hold given a limited upside potential to our updated DCF-based target price.

Board of Directors has committed to distribute cash not employed in a strategicdevelopment programmeIn a press release, the company's Board of Directors named its key principlesfor future cash distribution. Specifically, in making the 9M17 dividend decision,the directors relied on Tatneft's operating results, the implementation of theDevelopment Strategy to 2025, and FCF forecasts. The Board believes thatsuccessful strategy implementation supports cash generation in excess of thecompany's initial estimates. The Board in the release referred to a 50% pay-outratio on the basis of IFRS consolidated earnings (applied the first time to 2016IFRS consolidated earnings) as a target level for dividend payments. However, thatlevel was exceeded in 9M17, given the efficient implementation of the Strategyto 2025. Simultaneously, the Board has committed to distributing to shareholdersthe cash not employed in the development of Tatneft.

We upgrade our DPS estimates using an assumption that dividend cash outflowis equal to FCFWe make changes to our forecasts for Tatneft's dividends to match the dividendcash outflow with the cash generation. For the 2017 dividend forecast, we takethe actual interim recommendation and use a 50% pay-out ratio to estimate thefinal dividend. We upgrade the total 2017 DPS by 21% from RUB30.10/shareto RUB36.50/share. Note that the 2017 dividend outflow may materially exceedour FCF forecast for the year, given that the company has started to pay aninterim dividend. We assume in our model that the 9M17 dividend is distributedto shareholders during this financial year. We raise our DPS forecasts for 2018-20by more than 10% (we apply a 55% pay-out in the period vs. a 50% pay-out in

Pavel Kushnir

Research Analyst

+971-4-361 1732

Key changes

TP 520.00 to525.00

↑ 1.0%

Rating Buy to Hold ↓Source: Deutsche Bank

Price/price relative

Tatneft MICEX Index (Rebased)

2015 2016 2017

200

400

600

0

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute 15.8 27.1 38.2

MICEX Index 2.9 9.4 10.4Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 20.6

ROA (%) 13.2

Net debt/equity (x) -5.4

Book value/share (USD) 5.4

Price/book (x) 1.5

Net interest cover (x) –

EBIT margin (%) 26.2Source: Deutsche Bank

9 November 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook


Rating

Hold Middle East

UAE

Real Estate, Construction and Building Materials

Real Estate

Company

Emaar Malls Alert Date

8 November 2017

Results

Namshi weighing on margin; HOLD

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker EMAA.DU EMAARMLS UH DBX EMAA

Price at 8 Nov 2017 (AED) 2.23

Price Target (AED) 2.70

52-week range (AED) 2.80 - 2.23

Athmane Benzerroug

Research Analyst

(+971) 4 4283938

[email protected]

Key changes

TP 2.90 to 2.70 ↓ -6.9%


Key data

FYE 12/31 2016A 2017E 2018E

Revenue (AEDm)

3,228 3,994 4,351

DB EPS (AED) 0.14 0.15 0.17

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 18.7 14.5 13.1


We cut our TP by 7% mainly on lower

retailers sales outlook and Fashion

Avenue expansion pushed to 2018E.

Valuation: We use a cap rate of 6.7%

(100bps higher than global malls) on

2017E Net Operating Income (Gross

Profit less selling & marketing expenses)

(2018E NOI discounted back to 2017 to

capture growth) to value EMG.

Risk: Key downside risks include: 1)

economic/geopolitical conditions in the

Middle East, 2) a slowdown in tourism

growth and lower consumer spending in

Dubai resulting in lower retail sales, 3)

potential oversupply of retail space in

Dubai; and 4) asset concentration risk

(the Dubai Mall: 85% of valuation). Key

upside risks include: 1) stronger-than-

expected rent increase; and 2) higher-

than-expected retailer sales.

Namshi weighing on performance; negative on overall margin Emaar Malls recorded AED485m (+1% QoQ, +11% YoY) NP in 3Q17, 5% below DBe and 10% below Bloomberg consensus. Total revenues reached AED876m (+11% QoQ, +13% YoY) 10% above DBe / c.5% above cons. mainly driven by Namshi acquisition (online fashion retailer in MENA) which was completed in Aug. EBITDA margin dropped 300bps below 3Q16 at 72% (DBe: 77%) mainly due to Namshi’s lower profitability. We believe Namshi is at best merely profitable at EBITDA level.

Emaar Malls: better standalone performance based on DBe We assume no profit contribution from Namshi in 3Q17. Emaar Malls ex. Namshi would have recorded NP of AED 487m (+11% YoY). Emaar Malls standalone EBITDA margin should have reached c.80% (+500bps above 3Q16). Full financials expected next week. Footfall increased by +5% YoY in 9M17 while rental income revenues remained stable highlighting more challenging retail outlook.

Figure 1: Estimated impact of Namshi acquisition – DB estimates

AEDm Namshi Consolidated Emaar Malls

3Q16 3Q17E 3Q17E 3Q17 2Q17

Revenue 774 785 91 876 787

% YoY growth 7.5% 1.4% 39% 13.2% 0.3%

COGS (123) (99) (44) (143) (101)

as of % sales -15.8% -12.7% -48% -16.3% -12.8%

Gross profit* 651 686 47 733 687

margin 84.2% 87.3% 52% 83.7% 87.2%

% YoY growth 9.2% 5.3% - 12.5% 2.1%

SG&A (75) (54) (44) (98) (60)

as of % sales -9.7% -6.9% -48% -11.2% -7.7%

EBITDA** 577 631 4 635 626

margin 75% 80% 4% 72% 80%

Net profit 437 487 (2) 485 482

margin 56% 62% -2% 55% 61%

% YoY growth 18% 11% - 11% 5%

Emaar Malls Standalone

Source: Company, Deutsche Bank, All Namshi Data are DBe except revenues * Assuming 52% margin ** Assuming 4% margin

Discounted valuation despite higher growth: investors focused on risks Emaar Malls trades at c.20% discount to peers (P/E of 14.5x 2017E vs. 18.7x for global malls) and implied cap. rate of 8.2% vs. 5.6% for global malls (6.7% at DB target price) despite strong earnings growth (+10% p.a. in 2016-18E vs. +4% for global malls).



Rating

Hold Middle East

UAE

Real Estate, Construction and Building Materials

Construction

Company

Arabtec Holding Alert

Date

8 November 2017

Results

3Q17 still showing receivables growing: Hold

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker ARTC.DU ARTC DB DBX ARTC

Price at 7 Nov 2017 (AED) 2.89

Price Target (AED) 2.96

52-week range (AED) 6.07 - 2.75

Athmane Benzerroug

Research Analyst

(+971) 4 4283938

[email protected]

Stock data

Market cap (AED)(m) 4,335.0

Shares outstanding (m) 1,500

Free float (%) 69

Dubai Financial Market General Index

3,480.7


Key data

FYE 12/31 2016A 2017E 2018E

Revenue (AEDm)

8,158 8,471 8,746

DB EPS (AED) -0.74 0.07 0.08

P/E (DB EPS) (x) – 41.5 36.5


Valuation & Risks

We use DCF to value Arabtec (WACC of

12.3%). Our LT growth of 3% is based

on DB forecast for the LT inflation rate

for the MENA construction industry.

Upside risks include: 1) Pick-up in

awards activity; 2) higher execution rate

and margin recovery and 3) improvement

in working capital. Downside risks

include: 1) slow execution; 2) further

provisions/write downs; and 3) Higher

working capital

3Q17: small miss; 9M17 EBITDA margin at 4.2%, positive Arabtec recorded AED18m NP in 3Q17 or below DBe / Cons. of AED21m. Revenue came in at AED 2.1bn (+2% QoQ / +5% YoY) and gross profit margin increased slightly to 5.5% (vs. 5.1% in 2Q17) and SG&A decreased by c.25% (YoY) in 3Q17. Higher than expected EBITDA margin in 3Q17 (3.5%) is positive but our estimates already incorporate a ramp up going forward (DBe 4.2% in 2017E and moving up to 8.5% sustainable level). 9M17 EBITDA margin 4.2% in line with DBe for FY 2017. Backlog reached AED16.8bn or -15% YoY. 3Q17 recorded new awards worth c.AED1.5bn. 9M17 new awards represents c.65% of 2017 DBe of AED8bn.

Figure 1: 3Q17 review

AED m 3Q17 3Q17E % dev. 2Q17 % qoq 3Q16 % yoy Cons. % dev.

Revenues 2,100 2,172 -3% 2,060 2% 2,000 5% 2,011 4%

EBITDA 73 67 10% 69 6% (208) NA NA

Margin 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% -10.4% NA

Net Profit 18 21 -15% 41 -56% (226) NA 21 -15%

Margin 0.8% 1.0% -11.3% 1.0% Source: Company, Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP

Free cash Flow still negative, receivables increasing Arabtec generated FCF of -AED563m in 3Q17 (-AED1.1bn in 1H17) after increase in WCR (mainly on higher receivables or 229 receivable days in 2016 vs. 279 days in 3Q17). 3Q17 net debt stood at AED1.5bn (gearing: 119%).

Potential collection of receivables is the key upside risk to the equity story Across MENA, contractors are facing high receivables. Arabtec is pursuing more aggressively claims for outstanding receivables. c.AED8bn of trade and other receivables remain (c.90% of which are current, 279 days and 1.8x its current m. cap.). Out of c.AED3bn of receivables, c.65% are amounts due from customers on contracts that represent work done by Arabtec but neither billed nor certified (WIP). These receivables represent the amount that Arabtec’s new management is trying to recover in the coming years. Cash collection of receivables c.AED3bn if done within two years can potentially represent c.2.0/sh. (undiscounted). Mgt. is on track with its first phase of thetransformation program of the stabilizing business.

Expensive contractor given early stage of the recovery story 9M17 NP is supportive, in our view, and we see recent Mgmt. initiatives (stabilizing the group’s organization structure, implementing risk approach) as positive. The stock remains expensive among EM/global contractors (P/E of 41.5x 2017E vs. EM: 9.0x / global: 15.2x).



8 November 2017

Retail

CCC

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 8 Nov 2017 (PLN) 265.50

Price Target (PLN) 340.00

52-week range (PLN) 298.00 - 179.37

ResultsEmerging EuropePoland

Company

CCC


CCCP.WA CCC PW WSE CCCP

Date8 November 2017

3Q: soft earnings in relativelyunimportant quarterOverall strong quarter, but earings missed expectations by 5-10%CCC posted preliminary results for 3Q 2017. Although the quarter in generalwas very strong (sales up by 50%, EBITDA up by 75%), EBITDA missed ourand consensus estimates by ca. 5-10%. Third quarter, traditionally dominated bysummer sales activity, has low contribution to overall full year profitability. CCCdelivers its FY earnings in fourth and second quarter of the year. Having said that,we keep our FY 2017 forecasts unchanged, as well as Buy rating and PLN 340target price. Our investment thesis is based on further expansion of CCC's valuestore concept as well as rapid growth of the e-commerce, which is an independentbusiness line.

A 25% LFL growth contributed to SG&A inflationIn 3Q 2017 CCC posted a 49% increase in sales, to which an impressive 25% rise inLFL was a significant contributor. Gross margin came in at 51%, flat YoY and in linewith our expectations. EBITDA increased by 75% YoY to PLN 82m, however thatfigure was lower than our forecast (PLN 88m) and consensus collected by PAP(PLN 91m). Detail disclosure is not yet available (full results are due on November14) but it appears that SG&A inflation was the reason for lower profitability.Earlier in 2017 CCC introduced bonus system for its store workforce based onLFL performance,. The latter was at historical high, which inflated SG&A line, webelieve. At the bottom line, CCC posted net profit of PLN 41m (most likely preminorities), vs. our forecast of profit attributable to equity holders of PLN 42m.

Figure 1: CCC: Preliminaty results for 3Q 2017PLNm 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17 2Q 17 3Q 17 YoY 3Q 17E

Revenues 664.7 1,132.6 720.4 1,125.1 987.2 49% 982.7

Gross profit 339.3 609.5 350.7 583.4 503.3 48% 501.7

EBITDA 46.7 237.1 3.5 201.0 81.6 75% 88.2

EBIT 25.2 218.1 -16.1 180.7 52.3 108% 64.2

Net profit 8.2 186.6 -50.6 148.1 41.0* NA 42.4

Gross margin 51.0% 53.8% 48.7% 51.9% 51.0% - 51.1%

EBITDA margin 7.0% 20.9% 0.5% 17.9% 8.3% - 9.0%

Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank *NOTE: Pre-minority interest

Tomasz Krukowski, CFA

Research Analyst

+44-20-7541-2197


CCC WIG 20 Index (Rebased)

2015 2016 20170

100

200

300

400


Absolute -5.2 6.7 40.0

WIG 20 Index 2.3 4.6 42.2Source: Deutsche Bank



Rating

Buy Emerging Europe

Russia

Banking / Finance

Company

Sberbank Alert Date

8 November 2017

Results

October 2017 RAS results: core revenues strength

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker SBER.MM SBER RX MCX SBER

ADR Ticker ISIN SBRCY US80585Y3080

Price at 7 Nov 2017 (RUB) 205.96


52-week range (RUB) 205.96 - 139.00

Ivan Kachkovski, CFA

Research Analyst

(+44) 20 754-11735

[email protected]

Stock data


Market Cap (RUBbn) 4,514.7

Market Cap (US$m) 76,201.4

Free float (%) 0.48

MICEX Index 2,155.6


Key data

FYE 12/31 2016A 2017E 2018E

Revenue (RUBbn)

1,698 1,792 1,915

Stated Net Profit (RUBbn)

536 621 700

EPS Adjusted (RUB)

24.45 28.33 31.92

DPS (RUB) 6.00 8.36 9.42

P/E Adjusted (x) 7.1 7.3 6.5


Sberbank’s net profit reached RUB64bn in October (RoE of 23.8%) bringing 10M17 result to RUB560bn vs RUB430bn a year before (growth of 30%, and RoE of 22% vs 20%). Our 3mma NIM proxy indicator came in at 6.64%, 5bp lower vs September. This is a third consecutive month of a 4-5bp slip in the number so it appears the NIM is finally at its peaks. (It is hard to expect a decline in the traditionally strong 4Q though). Asset repricing is here but still the bank seems to see support from funding costs which keep grinding lower. F&C income grew some 22% YoY in October and 16% in 10M17.

Net loan loss provisioning for the month was just RUB13bn, which means CoR of 94bp without any significant effect from FX. 10M17 provisioning amounted to RUB261bn (CoR of 194bp). Operating expenses were up 7% YoY in October and 5.5% up for 10M17 as C/I improved to 30.7%. October net profit was also affected by an elevated tax rate of 25.5%.

Corporate loans resumed growth at 0.4 % MoM in October. Retail loans grew 2% MoM driven by mortgages (+2.5% MoM and 11% YtD). On the funding side, retail deposits contracted 0.4% MoM while corporate accounts added 2.5%.

Figure 1: Sberbank 10M17 RAS P&L highlights (RUBbn, unless stated)

10M17 10M16 Change

Net interest income 997.8 929.0 7.4%

Net F&C income 287.0 250.5 14.6%

Net gain / (loss) from FX revaluation and trading 56.5 - 9.3 nm

Operating income before provisions 1,372.7 1,182.1 16.1%

Total provision (charge) / gain - 260.9 - 245.6 6.2%

Operating costs - 413.0 - 391.5 5.5%

Profit before tax 698.9 545.0 28.2%

Net profit 559.9 429.8 30.3%

RoE 22.2% 20.4%

C/I ratio 30.1% 33.1%Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank



8 November 2017

Oil & Gas

Earnings sensitivity

Oil & Gas Industry Update

Emerging EuropeKazakhstanRussia

Industry

Earnings sensitivityDate8 November 2017

Testing USD65/bbl Brent and RUB60/USD FX rateFavourable combination of crude oil price and roubleCrude oil price and rouble exchange rate have recently both developed in afavourable way for the Russian energy sector (with the exception of Transneft).While our base case assumptions are more conservative on both fronts, webelieve the market may become interested in more optimistic scenarios, inparticular if the current relatively high crude oil price and the relatively weak roubleprove to be sustainable.

■ Brent of USD65/bbl and RUB60/USD would increase our rouble Brentassumption by 26% in 2018, by 22% in 2019 and by 19% in 2020.

■ Oil & gas companies' EBITDA would grow by 15-18% and net income by26-32%.

■ The most sensitive companies are gas companies (due to their differenttax structure with a lower marginal tax rate), high-leverage Rosneft andKMG EP (due to different tax structure in Kazakhstan).

■ Transneft is an outlier with a negative effect on the earnings due to its zerocrude oil price sensitivity and a negative earnings sensitivity to weakerrouble: -5-6% at EBITDA and -7-9% at net income.

Pavel Kushnir

Research Analyst

+971-4-361 1732

Top picks

Transneft (TRNF_p.MM),RUB184,500.00 BuySource: Deutsche Bank



Rating

Buy Global Emerging Markets

Brazil

Banking / Finance

Payment Services

Company

Multiplus Date

8 November 2017

Results

Expanding the network; raising 2017 to reflect non-recurring tax gain

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker MPLU3.SA MPLU3 BZ SAO MPLU3

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Dec 31 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

Net income (BRLm) 514 543 551 624

EPS (BRL) 3.17 3.35 3.40 3.85

P/E (x) 11.5 10.9 10.7 9.5

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Sep Q just shy of DB forecast excluding non-recurring items

Price at 7 Nov 2017 (BRL) 36.45

Target price 54.00

52-week range 47.17 - 31.23

Catherine O’Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Key changes

TP 50.00 to 54.00 ↑ 8.0%

EPS (BRL) 3.10 to 3.35 ↑ 8.0%

Revenue (BRLm)

2,313 to 2,290 ↓ -1.0%



20

30

40

50

60

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

Multiplus

BOVESPA (Rebased)


Absolute -7.0 -6.7 -8.0

BOVESPA -4.8 6.6 13.1


Multiplus reported Sep Q EPS of R$1.00, well ahead of our R$0.72 forecast and R$0.76 consensus. However, the result included a non-recurring benefit from a tax restatement, excluding which, EPS was R$0.69. Net revenue increased 1.6% y-o-y, underlying which was breakage growth of 14.3% and an increase in the sale of points of 0.6%. Points issued declined 4.3% y-o-y as points issued to LATAM Brazil and points to banking, retail, industrial, and services were -12.4% and -2.4%, respectively. Going forward we expect to see an increase in the level of points issued as Multiplus expands its network to customers outside of Brazil, which should drive EPS higher; Buy.

Expanding partnership with LATAM Group Multiplus disclosed at the end of September that it would be expanding its partnership with LATAM Group; on today’s call we got more details. Under the new agreement, Multiplus members can redeem air tickets on any of LATAM Group’s subsidiary airlines rather than just LATAM Brazil previously, which now opens up unrestricted access to members on double the number of flights. Furthermore, Multiplus will be able to expand its coalition program to members in the US, Europe, Mexico, and Paraguay. Regarding Europe specifically, management commented that the focus will be on countries with large Latin populations and highlighted Portugal, Spain, Italy, and France as opportunities. We believe this should drive accruals (and redemptions) higher as the company builds its membership base in new countries. Management noted that they intend to build out operations in these additional countries similarly to the Brazil operation, forging partnerships with local banks and retailers. When questioned if they expected to see Multiplus’ accrual network expand into the countries in South America currently exclusively in the LATAMPASS network, management noted that many of these countries had unfavorable tax codes for coalition programs and therefore they did not foresee expanding there.

Raising 2017 forecast We are raising our 2017 EPS estimate from R$3.10 to R$3.35 to incorporate the Sep Q beat (driven by non-recurring benefit) vs. consensus of R$2.94.

Valuation and risks Given our improved outlook and that we are now using our 2018 forecast in our valuation analysis, we are raising our 12-month price target for MPLU3 shares from R$50 to R$54, derived by applying a 16 P/E multiple to our 2018 forecast. The stock’s historical P/E trading range has been in the mid/high teens to low twenties. FX volatility is a key risk. See page 4 for more.



Rating


Panama

Aviation

Company

Copa Holdings, S.A. Alert

Date

8 November 2017

Results

Sep Q beat; raising 2017 margin guide again; introducing 2018 outlook

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker CPA.N CPA UN NYS CPA

Price at 7 Nov 2017 (USD) 122.39

Target price 137.00

52-week range 134.01 - 85.23

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Catherine O-Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Matt Fallon

Research Associate

(+1) 212 250-7161

[email protected]

Stock data

Market cap (USDm) 5,184.2

Shares outstanding (m) 42.4

ADR ratio 0.0

Free float (%) 100

Volume (7 Nov 2017) 57,692

S&P 500 INDEX 2,591

Exchange rate (USD/USD} 1.00


Copa reported Sep Q diluted EPS ex-specials of $2.38, ahead of our $2.10 forecast (recently lowered from $2.25) and the consensus of $2.21 (up $0.05 over the past four weeks). The airline produced an 18.1% operating margin, higher than our 16.3% estimate and up 470 bps year-over-year.

Top-line increased 15.6% year-over-year (versus a 16.8% increase in the prior Q), driven by a capacity increase of 13.0% and unit revenue (“RASM”) growth of 2.4% (better than our +1.2% forecast). Passenger unit revenue (“PRASM”) increased 3.1% year-over-year which compares to the June Q’s +8.2% and our +1.4% forecast. Unit costs (“CASM”) ex-fuel decreased 1.2%, better than our +0.4% estimate.

Copa ended the Sep Q with $972 million in cash, short-term and long-term investments, $47 million greater than prior Q end. Copa’s cash position represented 40% of last-twelve-month (“LTM”) revenue, up from 39% last Q (industry average 15% - 20%).

Copa raised its 2017 operating margin outlook again this Q to 17% - 18% from 16% - 18% previously and 15% - 17% originally. Underlying the improved margin guidance is a higher load factor (83% vs. 82% previously) and higher RASM (10.5 cents, up ~4% year-over-year and from previous guidance of 10.4 cents), partially offset by a higher jet fuel forecast of $1.85/gallon up from $1.75 previously. The company maintained its CASM ex-fuel guidance of 6.4 cents (flat year-over-year). Copa maintained its 2017 capacity guidance of 8% (which started the year at +5%). The company also introduced its 2018 operating margin guidance of 17% - 19%, underlying which is 9% capacity growth and a jet fuel price of $1.85/gallon. Underlying our 2018 EPS estimate of $8.50 is a 15.5% operating margin; we estimate that underlying consensus of $9.70 is a ~17% margin.

We will have more details following Copa’s 11 A.M. (ET) conference call tomorrow.



Rating


Brazil

Aviation

Company

GOL S.A. Date

8 November 2017

Forecast Change

Sep Q beat; plenty of opportunity for margin expansion going forward

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker GOL.N GOL US NYS GOL

ADR Ticker ISIN GOL US38045R1077

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Dec 31 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

EPS (BRL) -15.74 1.90 0.95 0.78 1.39

P/E (x) – 22.6 66.4 80.4 45.1

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Solid Sep Q, unit revenue growth encouraging

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Target price 27.00

52-week range 32.90 - 11.03

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Catherine O-Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Matt Fallon

Research Associate

(+1) 212 250-7161

[email protected]


0

10

20

30

40

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

GOL S.A.

BOVESPA (Rebased)


Absolute -21.2 24.0 -21.9

BOVESPA -4.8 6.6 13.1


GOL reported an operating profit of R$327 million (12.0% operating margin, up 290 bps y-o-y) in the Sep Q beating our estimate of R$307 million by R$20 million. The company posted net income after minority interest of R$328 million driven in part by a non-cash, FX gain and a R$179 million deferred tax credit from the merger of Smiles and Webjet in the Q. RASK was up 8.3% in the Sep Q, driven by yield growth of 8.6% and load factor growth of 0.4 pp. to 80.2%. Strong unit revenue trends coupled with an improving Brazilian economic backdrop bode well for shares of GOL as airline stocks tend to outperform early cycle; Buy.

GOL management see opportunities for margin expansion going forward GOL management highlighted various opportunities for margin expansion going forward. The implementation of bag fees has not yet met its full revenue-generating potential given that many fares booked for flights in the Sep Q were booked before the carrier had the ability to charge for bags. We should get a glance at the full impact of bag fees in the coming quarters. The company indicated that 25% of passengers are opting to purchase a bag. Additionally, the company highlighted the benefits associated with the delivery of the 737-MAX 8 aircraft. Management estimate that the MAX 8 will reduce fuel consumption by 15.0%, and reduce fleet cost overall by 3.0% to 4.0% as the aircraft is gradually phased into GOL’s fleet. GOL is taking delivery of 5 MAX 8 aircraft next year, 13 in 2019 and 21 in 2020.

Liquidity At quarter end, GOL had cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments of R$1.2 billion (equivalent to 11.3% of LTM revenue up from 9.2% in the June Q), an increase of R$245 million from the June Q.

Raising 2017 forecast to reflect Sep Q non-cash FX/tax impact We are raising our 2017 EPADS forecast from $0.75 to $1.40 (versus consensus of a loss per ADS of $0.35) to reflect the Sep Q non-cash FX gain as well as a non-recurring R$179 million deferred tax credit from the merger of Smiles and Webjet. It is important to note that we are not changing our more aggressive FY 2017 operating margin forecast of 9.9% (vs. company guidance of ~9.0%).

Valuation and risks We are maintaining our 12-month price target for GOL shares of $27. Our price target is derived by applying a ~8.0x EV/EBITDAR multiple to our 2018 forecast, which compares to historical Latam airline range of 6x - 8x. Fuel price volatility is a key risk. See Page 4 for more valuation and risks.



Rating

Buy Global Emerging Markets Brazil

Aviation

Company

GOL S.A. Alert Date 8 November 2017

Results

Better-than-expected op. results; EPS beat boosted by FX/tax credit

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker GOL.N GOL US NYS GOL

ADR Ticker ISIN GOL US38045R1077


Target price 27.00

52-week range 32.90 - 11.03

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Catherine O-Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Matt Fallon

Research Associate

(+1) 212 250-7161

[email protected]

Stock data

Market cap (USDm) 6,653.1

Shares outstanding (m) 347.2

ADR ratio 1.0

Free float (%) 100

Volume (7 Nov 2017) 111,888

BOVESPA 72,415

Exchange rate (BRL/USD} 3.28


GOL reported an operating profit of R$327 million (12.0% operating margin, up 290 bps y-o-y) in the Sep Q beating our estimate of R$307 million by R$20 million. The company posted net income after minority interest of R$328 million driven in part by a non-cash, FX gain and a R$179 deferred tax credit from the merger of Smiles and Webjet in the Q. This translated to EPADS of $1.49, beating our estimate of $1.15 (which did not include the tax credit) and the consensus of $0.37.

Total revenue for the Q was R$2.7 billion, up 13.2% y-o-y (versus 7.0% in the June Q) and R$62 million higher than our forecast. Net passenger unit revenue (PRASK) increased 9.2% (versus 8.5% in the June Q and -3.9% in the Mar Q), driven by 8.6% yield growth and a 0.4 pp increase in the load factor to 80.2%. Adjusted unit costs ex-fuel increased 7.1% (versus a 2.0% decrease in the June Q and a 7.6% decrease in the Mar Q); the result was worse than our estimated increase of 2.6%.

GOL tightened its FY 2017 operating margin guidance to 9%, the high end of the prior guide of 7.0% - 9.0% (which had been raised from 6.0% - 8.0% earlier this year). GOL raised its 2017 capacity to ~+0.5% y-o-y from flat to down 2.0% previously. The company lowered CASM ex-fuel guidance from 14.0 real cents to 13.7 real cents.

At quarter end, GOL had cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and accounts receivable of R$2.1 billion, an increase of R$348 million from the June Q. GOL’s adjusted net debt/LTM EBITDAR decreased to 4.8x from 5.6x at June Q end, but was up from 4.6x at Mar Q end.

We will have more details following GOL’s 11:30 A.M. (Eastern) conference call



8 November 2017

Telecom

TIM Brasil

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

TelecomPrice at 7 Nov 2017 (USD) 17.52

Target price 22.00

52-week range 19.22 - 11.21

ResultsLatin AmericaBrazil

Company

TIM Brasil


TSU.N TSU US NYS TSU

Date8 November 2017

Multiple tail winds: +17% 3Q EBITDAgrowthEBITDA growth exceeds our bullish estimatesTIM Brasil reported yet another quarter of very strong EBITDA growth, up17.2% YoY in 3Q17 (+15.5% in 2Q17). TIM Brasil beat our expectations by1%/2%/6% at the revenue/EBITDA/EBIT lines and 3Q Net Income was in line atBRL279m, up 52% YoY. The company also announced (for the first time) intereston equity payment of BRL190m - an important step towards higher dividends andsignificantly lower cash taxes.

Gross revenues accelerate on higher ARPUs /subscriber mix shiftIn the previous two quarters TIM Brasil posted solid net revenue growth (+3% YoYin 1H17) whilst gross revenue actually declined (-3% YoY in 1H17), suggestingmuch of the net revenue gains came from tax optimization (inclusion of lower-taxcontent revenues). As of 3Q17, taxation remained a tail wind, yet, note that grossrevenue growth is back in the black +1% YoY. TIM continues to execute well interms of migrating subscribers from pre-paid to recurring pre-paid and controlpackages. TIM saw 935K net adds in the post-paid segment (mostly control) in 3Qwith post-paid subscribers now >28% of the base compared to ~20% in 3Q16.

Costs remain under control, visible impact of digitalization effortsTIM's opex surprised to the upside with solid cost-control as total expensesdeclined 2% YoY. Personnel expenses were down 6%YoY and sales & marketingdeclined by 2% YoY in 3Q17. The company highlighted its digitalization effortswith sales of control packages via digital channels tripling YoY in 9M17, and digitalrecurring pre-paid top-ups increasing by 80% YoY. E-billing and e-payment growthwas also at 15%/13% YoY respectively.

Fixed-line growing but remains sub-scale, more capex and/or M&A?TIM is predominantly a mobile-only business but its ultra broadband revenues aregrowing at 54% YoY, yet this is from a very low base (<300k subscribers). We thinkTIM will ultimately need to invest a lot more in fixed fiber, the question is whetherthe operator will choose to do so organically or via M&A. With abundant pent-up demand for high speeds, little overbuild with competitors and strong pricingpower in broadband, we see an opportunity for TIM to accelerate investments.TIM has 0.7x net debt/EBITDA and can afford to pursue both organic an inorganicopportunities to expand its fixed-line footprint.

Buy for 26% potential upside to our $22 PTFollowing the recent sell-off, the stock price implies more than 26% total returnpotential to our US$22/ADR price target. We expect consensus upgrades on the

Masha Kahn, CFA

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-9619


TIM Participacoes BOVESPA (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17

10

20

0


Absolute -5.2 -0.2 28.4

BOVESPA -4.8 6.6 13.1Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 6.1

ROA (%) 3.1

Net debt/equity (%) 2.5

Book value/share (BRL) 7.64

Price/book (x) 1.5

Net interest cover (x) 4.3

EBIT margin (%) 11.6Source: Deutsche Bank



North America

United States

Industrials

Metals & Mining

Periodical

Metals & Mining Alert

Date

8 November 2017

Periodical

Daily prices and news: China's October trade data relatively subdued

Jorge Beristain, CFA Chris Terry

Research Analyst Research Analyst

(+1) 203 863-2381 (+1) 212 250-5434

[email protected] [email protected]

Jeremy Kliewer Sathish Kasinathan

Research Associate Research Associate

(+1) 904 527-6532 (+1) 203 863-2358

[email protected] [email protected]

Corinne Blanchard

Research Associate

(+1) 904 645-2360

[email protected]

Focus stocks

Barrick (ABX.N),USD13.99 Buy Price Target USD19.00

Nucor (NUE.N),USD57.69 Buy Price Target USD70.00

Pan American Silver (PAAS.OQ),USD16.05 Buy Price Target USD20.00

Reliance Steel & Alum. (RS.N),USD76.88 Buy Price Target USD95.00

Teck (TECK.N),USD21.47 Buy Price Target USD26.00

Vale (VALE.N),USD10.32 Buy Price Target USD12.00


Price performance %WTD %YTD

3M LME aluminum -2.4% 25.9%

3M LME copper -1.0% 23.3%

3M LME lead 1.3% 23.8%

3M LME molybdenum 0.0% 5.0%

3M LME nickel -0.6% 26.3%

3M LME zinc -1.6% 22.9%

Comex gold 0.4% 10.7%

Comex silver 0.6% 6.5%

China HRC 0.8% 11.6%

SHFE rebar 2.1% 35.0%

Iron ore (62% Fe) 4.6% -20.6%

Coking coal, FOB Aus 0.4% -20.1%

Freight (BCI) 2.1% 123.9%

Brent 2.6% 12.1%

WTI 2.8% 6.5%

Natgas 5.6% -15.4%

Thermal (Newcastle) -0.5% 11.4%

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.97 (-1.8%), copper $3.10 (-2.1%), lead $1.13 (-0.6%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.74 (-2.1%); zinc $1.44 (-2.0%); Precious (/oz): gold $1,275 (-0.5%), silver $16.95 (-1.6%); Steel (/mt): China HRC $621 (-0.1%), SHFE Rebar $566 (+0.8%), MB Scrap Index $302 (+0.0%); Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $63 (-1.1%), coking coal (/mt) $181 (+0.4%), freight (BCI) 3,101 (+1.9%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $63.69 (-0.9%), WTI (/bbl) $57.20 (-0.3%), natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.15 (+0.6%), thermal coal (/t) $99 (-0.3%).

China’s exports and imports growth eased in October. Unwrought copper imports totaled 330kt in October (-23% MoM, +14% YoY). YTD total at 3.8mt (-8% YoY). Iron ore imports fell to 80mt (-23%, -2%). YTD imports reached 896mt (+6% YoY). Coal imports were 21mt (-21%, -1.4%), with YTD total at 226mt (+12% YoY). Steel exports totaled 5mt (-3%, -35%), with YTD at 65mt (-30% YoY). Aluminum exports reached 350kt (-5%, flat), with YTD total at 3.98mt (+4% YoY). (Bloomberg Finance LP)

Chinese battery makers are looking into upstream investments in raw materials like cobalt to ensure stable supply as demand for Electric Vehicle (EV) rises. Cobalt is used in battery cathodes and increased supply uncertainty from Congo, which is world’s largest producer has boosted price. Several Chinese companies along the EV supply chain have bought stakes in overseas mines, amid expectations that supply will not keep up with demand. (Reuters)

India’s largest-listed jeweler, Titan, expects jewellery sales to rise this year as tighter rules on cash flows and a new sales tax are expected to impact smaller informal retailers. Larger outlets are expected to benefit from greater transparency. (Reuters)

Goldcorp completes sale of its interest in Camino Rojo oxide project, Mexico to Orla Mining Limited. Goldcorp received 19.9% of Orla’s outstanding shares in return. Goldcorp plans to hold Orla’s shares for investment. (Company)

China’s Ministry of Commerce approves merger of equals transaction between Potash Corporation and Agrium under the condition that PotashCorp will divest its minority holdings in Arab Potash Company and SQM within 18-months and in Israel Chemicals within 9-months. PotashCorp owns ~32% stake in SQM. The companies have now received clearance for the merger in Brazil, Canada, China, India and Russia. Regulatory review and approval process continues in the US and is expected to close by 4Q17 end. (Company)

Allegheny Technologies (ATI) offers 17m common shares, priced at $24/sh, in an underwritten public offering, with a 30-day option to purchase an additional 2.6m shares. Proceeds to redeem $350m 9.375% notes due 2019 and general corporate purposes. Assuming full over-allotment (+18% basic or +15% diluted shares), gross proceeds = $469m. Net Debt-to-LTM EBITDA would decline from 5.6x to 4.1x. DBe interest cost savings at $33m (15c/sh) or 17% 2018E net income. (Company, DB)



8 November 2017

EM Daily

GlobalLatin America

Emerging Markets

EM DailyDate8 November 2017

Real opportunity – Go long BRL (vs.ILS)To watchMXN: CPI (Oct'17,YoY). Previously 6.35%. DB expects 6.30%.MXN: Overnight rate (Nov'17). Prev. 7.00%. DB exp. 7.00%.PEN: Reference Rate (Nov'17). Prev. 3.50%. DB exp. 3.50%.CZK: CPI (Oct'17, YoY). Prev. 2.7%. DB expects 2.8%.HUF: CPI (Oct'17, YoY). Prev. 2.5%. DB expects 2.3%EG: CPI (Oct'17, YoY). Prev. 31.6%. DB expects 30.3%

Key recent developmentsBRL: FGV Inflation IGP-DI (Oct'17, MoM). In line with expectations at 0.10%.CLP: CPI (Oct'17, YoY). Above expectations at 1.90%.PLN: MPC meeting (Nov'17). Rates on hold as expected at 1.50%.

Figure 1: FX Best/Worst Performers

0.53%

0.47%

0.38%

0.33%

-0.02%

-0.03%

-0.06%

-0.08%

ZAR

MXN

PHP

TRY

HUF

IDR

TWD

CNY

Daily Return (%) Daily Return (%)


Figure 2: CDS Best/WorstPerformers

-0.14%

-0.11%

-0.09%

-0.07%

0.05%

0.05%

0.17%

0.24%

ID

CO

CN

TH

SV

CR

BR

QA

Daily Return (%)


Real opportunity – Go long BRL (vs. ILS)Given BRL’s high score on ‘defensive’ metrics – real rates, external balances,FX reserves – its recent underperformance stands out as excessive, in our view.Further, expectations for pension reform delivery are now low. We thereforebelieve current levels are attractive to go long BRL, with the currency offeringsignificant retracement potential; as one of the ‘safer’ carry longs, we believe itwill be among the first in EM that investors return to. We recommend fundingBRL longs with ILS, as shekel overvaluation is at extremes and inflation remainssubdued, which increases the possibility of BoI FX intervention. Further, using ILSas a funder for BRL longs eliminates most of the broad dollar risk while preservingthe positive carry. Go long BRLILS; while we were stopped out of our original tradedue to the large EM sell-off last Friday, we believe the fundamental rationale forthis trade remains intact and thus recommend re-initiation. See report for moredetails: EM FX trade idea: long BRL vs. ILS.

Brazil: Government tries to salvage the pension reformFollowing the negative repercussion in financial markets of comments made byPresident Michel Temer earlier this week suggesting that he had thrown in thetowel on the pension reform, several officials today claimed that the governmentremains strongly committed to passing a simpler version of the reform this year.After meeting with Temer and Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles to discussthe reform, Deputy Darcisio Perondi stated that Deputy Arthur Maia, who wasresponsible for the reform bill approved by the Lower House Special Committeein May, will present an amended bill in order to facilitate its approval in the LowerHouse. According to Perondi, a new version could be presented in the next 48hours. As we mentioned yesterday, an alternative would be for the government to

Drausio Giacomelli

Strategist

+1-212-250-7355

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

+1-212-250-2524

Jed Evans

Strategist

+1-212-250-8605



8 November 2017

EMEA Snap

Emerging EuropePoland

Economics

EMEA SnapDate8 November 2017

Poland: NBP: Steady for now, yet data-contingent path is nighAs expected, NBP left its policy stance unchanged

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to keep all the NBP rates unchanged.It left the reference rate, Lombard rate, deposit rate and rediscount rate at1.50%, 2.50%, 0.50%, 1.75%, respectively. It also cut reserve requirement ratioon funds with maturity over two years to zero, effective as of March 2018 for themaintenance period starting on April 30, 2018.

The statement and press conference

Figure 1: Positive news on Q3 GDPmay be investment intensive

News Reference Period Impact Q3-2017

Construction July, August 0.43

Imports July -0.07

PMI July, August 0.04

All news 0.40

Old projection 4.1

New projection 4.5

Source: Haver Analytics, CSO, and Deutsche Bank. Note: Someindicators in the model impact GDP on a centered moving averagebasis and/or on a standardized metric.

In the council’s opinion, the external inflationary environment remains moderate,as in previous assessments. It retained an optimistic view that investment maypick up in the short run, led by a rise in construction and manufacturing outputgrowth. Although as in previous press conferences, the individual members'optimistic but still cautious view on investment surfaced again. A slight, butnotable change in the statement was in regards to the acknowledgementthat "core inflation has risen", but remains "moderate" (vs "is still low", thataccompanied the statements since April this year). Overall, in the council’sopinion, the annual growth in prices of consumer goods and services remains ata moderate level.

Larger revisions to growth than inflation

Figure 2: Members of the centre ofthe spectrum to slowly drift into thehawkish side

Source: Source: Deutsche Bank. Note: the chart is derived froma qualitative analysis based on the flow of news from the past 9months, including Q&A MPC press conference contributions. Thismay not reflect their true stance, and may or may not accuratelyrepresent the voting intentions of the members

As we expected, the inflation profile for 2017 was lifted minimally, giving theyearly rate of inflation a 50% probability in the interval between 1.9% and2.0%, versus the 1.6% to 2.3% range seen in the July 2017 projection. Thebank's November projection based on the NECMOD model forecasting now seesinflation to average 1.6% to 2.9% in 2018 with a 50% probability (compared to1.1%-2.9% in the previous round). At the same time, with a 50% probability band,the annual GDP growth is expected in the range of 3.8%-4.6% in 2017 (against3.4-4.7% in the July 2017 projection), and 2.8-4.5% in 2018 (against to 2.5-4.5%,in the July projection).

The impact of interest rates on investment

As in previous conferences, it was clear that doves may continue to use in theirarguments the difficulty in fostering a benign environment for private investment.The hawks remain convinced that other factors other than the level of interestrates are behind the lackluster performance of investment so far. It remains to beseen how the members at the center of the spectrum choose to see the situation,

Kubilay Ozturk

Chief Economist

+90-212-3170124

Carlos Galindo

Research Analyst

+44-207-547-6269



8 November 2017

MENA Equity Flows

Periodical

Middle East Strategy

MENA Equity FlowsDate8 November 2017

Qatar fund flows turn positive inOctoberMENA net inflows led by trend reversal in Qatar

Figure 1: MENA Top Picks

Company Country TP Upside (%)

3-m ADTV

($m)

Al Tayyar KSA 45.0 67.3 9.4

DP World UAE 28.0 20.2 4.2

Emaar UAE 10.7 32.9 12.5

Herfy KSA 70.0 55.6 1.2

Natl Bk of Kuwait KWD 850.0 21.4 6.0

NMC Health UAE 3920.0 22.5 11.5

Saudi Telecom KSA 80.0 15.6 4.3

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 2: YTD Index Performance(%)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30E

gypt

Kuw

ait

Bah

rain

Du

bai

Abu

Dha

bi

Jo

rdan

KS

A

Om

an

Qata

r

Source:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 3: MENA Fund Flows (USDm)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-

17

Source:Deutsche Bank, Regional Stock Exchanges

Qatar received net inflows of USD85m in October - bucking 5 consecutive monthsand USD625m in outflows on account of the intra-GCC dispute that commencedin June. The MENA region as a whole saw net inflows worth USD184m in October(highest inflows since the Qatar standoff), supported by Abu Dhabi (USD80m)and Dubai (USD57m) but partially offset by Saudi Arabia, which saw an outflowof USD57m. The inflows in UAE were driven by the real estate sector with netinflows of USD65m, while banks were the top contributors in Qatar with inflowsof USD31m. MENA's aggregate YTD net inflow stands at USD2.6bn.

Saudi ArabiaIn Saudi Arabia, Al Rajhi Bank topped the rankings with foreign fund inflows ofUSD25.1m last month, while Almarai lost USD30.9m in the same period. On theother hand, Almarai (USD139.3m) and Saudi Telecom (USD40.1m) were the bestand worst performers over the past three months, respectively.

Abu DhabiIn Abu Dhabi, Aldar Properties was the largest recipient of foreign funds(USD34.7m), while Union National Bank found itself at the bottom, with netoutflows of USD6.2m. Over the past three months, Aldar has attracted thelargest inflows (USD74.8m), while First Abu Dhabi Bank has seen outflows ofUSD39.1m.

DubaiIn Dubai, Emaar Properties attracted the largest inflows (USD21m), whileDubai Investment witnessed the largest outflows (USD8.2m). Over the past threemonths, Emaar Properties has seen the largest inflows (USD40.9m), while DubaiIslamic Bank lost USD13m in outflows.

QatarIn Qatar, Qatar National Bank (QNBK) and Barwa Real Estate had the largestinflows and outflows of USD16.6m and USD 0.8m last month, respectively. QatarElectricity & Water had the highest inflows of USD10.3m, while QNBK had thelargest outflows of USD46.5m over the past three months.

Performance of Deutsche Bank’s MENA portfolioIn the period since the revision on 28 Dec 2016, Deutsche Bank’s MENA portfoliohas increased 66.3% (vs. 32.6% for MSCI EM). NMC Health and DP World havebeen the best performers, posting returns of 91% and 39%, respectively. The

Aleksandar Stojanovski

Research Analyst

+971-4-361-1786



8 November 2017

COFFEE report

Global Foreign Exchange

COFFEE reportDate8 November 2017

Data from 7-Nov-2017

USD buying against all G10 and selling against KRW

All G10 and EM currencies have been net sold against the dollar over the pastweek, with the exception of KRW. In G10, net selling of CHF has increased furtherand continues to be most net sold currency against the dollar. Net buying of USD/CAD calls also extended from last week, whereas net buying of USD/SEK andUSD/NOK calls was notably reduced. Net buying of downside in AUD and JPYwas broadly unchanged. GBP has seen a shift from net buying to net selling afterthe dovish BoE hike, as did EUR and NZD.

Figure 1: Cumulative returns

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar 14 Nov 14 Jul 15 Mar 16 Nov 16 Jul 17

Following investors

Sharpe ratio=1.15

Ann. returns=12.6%

Source: Deutsche Bank. This strategy buys the currency withthe highest DBSVACCY value (net investor buying) and sells thecurrency with the most negative DBSVACCY value. Returns arebased on weekly rebalancing and are net of transaction costs andcarry.

In EM, KRW has been the market’s only net buy against the dollar. At the otherextreme, the market further increased downside exposure in TRY and ZAR andalso added significant MXN downside. There has also been a shift this week fromselling USD/CNH calls to buying, but volumes remain low.

Data covers this week's close as of Tuesday, 7-Nov-17. The cover charts showFX investor buying and selling flows by calculating the difference between callover put volumes transacted in each currency over the last four weeks. A positiveor negative value implies net buying or selling of the underlying currency versusthe USD. The indicators are available on Bloomberg as DBSVACCY Index. Forexample, to access the ticker for EUR (CCY) use DBSVAEUR Index. For more detailon the construction methodology see the Appendix.

Figure 2: G10 FX option market flows Figure 3: EM FX option market flows

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

USD GBP NZD EUR NOK AUD SEK JPY CAD CHF

This week

Last week

Buying

Selling-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

KRW SGD CNH PLN ILS RUB MXN TRY ZAR

This week

Last week

Buying

Selling

Source: Deutsche Bank. Data as of Tuesday, shows cumulative 4-week buying/selling Source: Deutsche Bank. Data as of Tuesday, shows cumulative 4-week buying/selling

Robin Winkler

Strategist

+44-20-754-71841

George Saravelos

Strategist

+44-20-754-79118

Rohini Grover

Research Associate

+91-22-6181-1977



8 November 2017

Brazil Update

Latin AmericaBrazil

Economics

Brazil UpdateDate8 November 2017

Trying to salvage the pension reform

Highlights:■ The government will try to salvage the pension reform.

■ The IGP-DI inflation index slowed to 0.10% MoM in October.

■ The IPC-S accelerated slightly to 0.36%, as expected.

■ Vehicle production continues to recover.

Jose Carlos Faria

Chief Economist

+55-11-2113-5185



8 November 2017

Macro Bites

Global Economics

Macro BitesDate8 November 2017

A Happy 12 Month Trumpiversary ForMarkets?

Today marks the one year anniversary of President Trump securing victory in the2016 presidential election. Needless to say that the victory was unprecedentedand also a massive shock around the world. Following Trump’s victory, it waswidely expected that we’d see a much higher chance of fiscal spending but alsoa reinforcement of the backlash against globalisation and associated forces ofwhich migration policy and trade were probably first and foremost. In reality whatwe have seen in the last twelve months is plenty of evidence of backlash againstglobalisation, hostility and controversy, but very little in the way of fiscal policy.Indeed we’ve regards to the latter, the debacle around healthcare reform probablybest characterises the difficulties the President has faced in that regard.

So with today marking the one year anniversary, we thought we would take alook at how markets have performed over that time period. For the purpose ofthis we’ve included our usual monthly performance assets, as well as a few otherUS assets. First and foremost after running the numbers what stands out is thesheer number of assets which have seen positive returns. Indeed in USD terms,out of a sample of 41 assets, 38 have seen positive total returns.

As we know US equity market performance has been relentless. The S&P 500 hasreturned +23.5% over the last 12 months and has seen a positive total return inevery month since Trump was elected. Interestingly this hasn’t actually been thebest 12 month performance for the S&P 500 following an election. That awardgoes to the 1944 election victory for Franklin D. Roosevelt which saw the S&P 500rally +36.8% in the year following. The twelve month performance post Trumpranks 7th in the last 23 elections. Meanwhile the Dow has rallied +31.5% andthe smaller-cap Russell 2000 index has returned +25.4%. It hasn’t just been USequity markets that have seen blockbuster returns though. Indeed it’s very muchbeen a global rally. The biggest winner is the FTSE MIB (+47.8%) while also inEurope the DAX has returned +34.1%, Stoxx 600 +27.9%, Greek Athex +38.2%and IBEX +24.9%. The UK’s FTSE 100 has returned +21.4% while in Asia theNikkei is +25.5% and Hang Seng +30.7%.

In bond markets, as we know Treasuries have seen some huge ranges butultimately performance has been benign. Indeed Treasuries have returned -0.1%.In fairness the big move for Treasuries came in the first few weeks of the electionvictory where we saw 10y yields spike nearly 80bps. If we take performance fromthe yield highs of last December then performance is actually more like +3.5%.More significant for bonds though has been the shape of the yield curve. Havingspiked as high as 136bps, the 2s10s curve has now flattened to just 68bps and

Craig Nicol

Macro Strategist

+44-20-754-57601

Jim Reid

Strategist

+44-20-754-72943



9 November 2017



Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Thursday, 09 November

BR 07:00 FGV CPI IPC-S (Nov) 0.35% 0.33%

BR 07:00 FGV Inflation IGP- DI (Oct) 0.10% 0.62%

TR 07:00 Industrial production (Sep) -5.20%

CL 08:00 CPI (Oct) 0.2% (1.5%) -0.2% (1.5%)

HU 08:00 Merchandise trade balance(prelim) (Sep), EUR, m EUR303.0m

CZ 08:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 3.8%rate

CZ 09:00 CNB FX reserves (Oct), USD, bn USD146.3bn

PL 11:00 MPC meeting (Nov) 1.50%rate 1.50%rate 1.50%rate

RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Nov) 0.00%

UA 14:34* CPI (Oct) 2.0% (16.4%)

UA 14:35* PPI (Oct) -22.40%

Thursday, 09 November

EG 05:44* CPI (Oct) 0.7% (30.3%) 1.0% (31.6%)

RO 07:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), EUR, bn -EUR1,059.70bn

CZ 08:00 CPI (Oct) 0.4% (2.8%) -0.1% (2.7%)

HU 08:00 CPI (Oct), nsa 0.3% (2.3%) 0.1% (2.5%)

HU 08:00 Core inflation excluding indirect taxes (Oct) -2.60%

EG 10:00* Industrial production (Sep) -17.00% -23.80%

MX 11:00 CPI (Oct) 0.60% (6.30%) 0.31% (6.35%)

MX 11:00 Core CPI (Oct) 0.28%

ZA 11:00 Manufacturing production (Sep), nsa -1.50%

TR 12:00* CBT FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD95.5bn

PE 12:00* Trade Balance (Sep), USD, m USD350.0m USD371.0m

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD425.5bn

US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Oct), k 1,884.0k

US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov), k 231.0k 229.0k

US 15:00 Wholesale Inventories (Sep), sa 0.50% 0.30% 0.3% (4.5%)

Friday, 10 November

BR 04:00 FIPE CPI weekly (Nov)

RO 07:00 CPI (Oct) 0.5% (1.8%)

BR 08:00 IBGE Inflation IPCA (Oct) 0.45% (2.73%) 0.16% (2.54%)

RU 08:00 Money supply (Nov), RUB, tr, chg RUB9.3tr

MX 11:00 Industrial Production (Sep) (-1.0%) (-0.5%)

KZ 12:00* Industrial production (Oct)* -6.90%

PL 13:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), EUR, m EUR298.0m

RU 13:00 Merchandise trade balance (Sep), USD, bn USD6.6bn

US 15:00 Consumer Sentiment prelim (Nov), Index 94 100.7

US 19:00 Treasury Budget Balance (Oct), USD, bn USD8.0bn

Monday, 13 November

RO 07:00 Current account balance (Sep), EUR, m -EUR4,043.0m

TR 07:00 Current account balance (Sep), USD, bn -USD4.90bn -USD1.24bn

RO 07:00 Industrial production (Sep) -9.80%

HU 08:00 Construction (Sep), nsa -36.80%

HU 08:00 Industrial production(final) (Sep), wda -6.80%

CZ 09:00 Current account balance(and BoP) (Sep), CZK, bn -CZK8.1bn

IL 11:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,572.0m

BR 12:00* Tax Collections (Oct), BRL, m BRL110.0m BRL105,595.0m

PL 13:00 CPI (Oct), nsa 0.4% (2.1%) 0.4% (2.2%)

PL 13:00 Current account balance(and BoP) (Oct), EUR, m -EUR100.0m


9 November 2017



Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)

8-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 60,811.36 na -0.1 0.6 2.9 27.6 25.3 36.9 16.1

EMEA MSCI EMEA 541.01 na -0.3 1.0 3.9 10.7 11.6 24.0 2.5

LatAm MSCI LatAm 84,333.22 na 1.3 0.4 -2.1 17.3 20.1 18.3 9.6

Asia MSCI Asia 925.73 na -0.3 0.5 3.6 33.7 30.5 47.0 24.4

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 1,054.07 22 -0.2 -1.5 -0.4 33.2 10.6 -3.3 -53.0

Greece ASE 741.98 65 -0.8 -3.5 -1.6 27.1 -23.6 -15.1 -88.8

Hungary BSE 40,122.07 67 0.8 0.7 4.6 37.1 117.4 74.7 -3.7

Israel TA-25 1,420.45 148 -0.1 -1.4 -1.6 5.9 6.1 30.4 30.5

Poland WIG 64,617.71 266 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 43.1 13.1 33.3 -26.2

Russia RTS$ 1,150.36 829 0.3 2.1 1.4 -0.2 14.2 -18.4 -49.7

Turkey ISE 100 111,894.54 2023 0.4 -2.1 0.6 30.6 -16.0 -28.8 -37.5

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,266.81 2 1.1 -1.0 -1.0 3.8 -12.1 18.5 -52.7

Egypt CASE 14,204.95 69 1.0 -0.5 1.5 18.8 -38.8 -12.3 -51.8

Jordan ASEGI 2,079.80 6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 -4.2 -1.3 7.5 -39.6

Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,180.07 70 0.6 -5.4 -7.4 8.7 -16.9 -0.3 -55.2

Oman MSM30 5,031.16 4 -0.9 -0.3 -2.7 -13.0 -27.3 -11.9 -38.9

Qatar DSM20 7,856.24 30 -0.9 -3.9 -3.5 -24.7 -42.2 -8.4 -18.4

Saudi Arabia TASI 6,936.49 1128 0.0 -0.2 -3.6 -3.8 -28.1 -0.1 -22.6

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,369.06 53 -1.1 -2.6 -1.4 -3.9 -8.8 63.4 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,414.92 124 -1.9 -6.0 -5.4 -3.3 -22.5 111.1 -37.2

South Africa JSE All Share 60,078.03 1391 0.5 0.5 2.2 15.4 -4.3 -1.4 -10.6

ASIA

China HSCCI 4,442.74 706 0.1 0.6 0.8 23.2 0.3 5.3 -28.7

China A-Shares SHASHR 3,576.98 36503 0.2 0.2 2.4 15.3 30.3 55.3 -28.4

India BSE 30 33,218.81 2182 -0.3 -1.7 5.1 30.5 12.7 47.5 5.4

Indonesia JSE CI 6,049.38 415 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 25.9 13.6 27.1 78.4

Korea KOSPI 2,552.40 5010 0.0 -0.3 9.1 36.2 27.8 30.2 4.9

Malaysia KLCI 1,744.20 187 -0.4 0.1 -0.9 12.7 -24.6 -23.1 -2.8

Pakistan KSE 29,422.52 54 0.5 1.3 -0.8 -11.2 26.2 135.8 78.8

Philippines MSE CI 8,508.49 89 0.0 2.3 2.1 20.2 3.5 25.0 94.3

Taiwan TWSE 10,818.99 3708 -0.2 0.0 3.4 25.3 23.0 44.2 29.6

Thailand SET 1,714.65 1616 0.2 0.1 2.1 20.3 7.8 22.9 101.3

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 28,081.57 28 0.6 0.9 4.3 50.4 28.7 218.6 121.7

Brazil BOVESPA 74,363.13 2189 3.2 1.1 -5.2 23.5 10.3 -19.0 NA

Chile IPSA 5,485.65 114 0.2 -1.4 0.0 40.1 31.9 -2.6 34.5

Colombia IGBC 10,727.10 na 0.5 1.2 -6.1 5.5 -43.3 -55.1 -33.0

Mexico IPC 48,835.69 289 0.1 1.4 -5.7 16.3 -21.7 -17.8 -5.3

Peru IBVL 19,958.55 5 -0.2 0.5 3.2 32.5 16.5 -24.1 -6.3

Venezuela BVC 703.49 2277 -1.2 1.1 27.5 -97.8 14752.4 83005.6 387716.9 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

9 November 2017



Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 8-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 22.1 -0.1 0.2 0.8 -13.6 -0.9 10.6 21.9 21.8 21.4

Hungary HUF 269.3 0.0 0.8 2.4 -8.2 8.3 20.8 265.3 264.7 260.0

Israel ILS 3.5 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -8.5 -7.5 -10.1 3.5 3.5 3.4

Poland PLN 3.7 -0.3 0.7 0.7 -12.5 7.6 11.8 3.6 3.6 3.6

Russia RUB 59.2 -0.2 1.4 2.1 -3.5 26.6 87.1 56.6 56.8 57.0

Turkey TRY 3.9 -0.3 1.6 5.2 9.7 71.5 115.9 3.8 3.8 3.9

South Africa ZAR 14.1 -0.5 0.6 3.7 3.1 25.9 61.9 12.4 12.3 12.0

ASIA

China CNY 6.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 -4.5 8.7 6.2 6.9 7.0 7.1

India INR 65.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.4 5.6 19.2 66.0 66.0 66.0

Indonesia IDR 13,517.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.5 11.4 40.5 13,820.0 13,940.0 14,180.0

Korea KRW 1,113.3 0.0 0.1 -1.9 -7.8 1.8 2.4 1,170.0 1,190.0 1,200.0

Malaysia MYR 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 -5.7 26.6 38.1 4.4 4.4 4.6

Pakistan PKR 105.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 3.2 9.7 na na na

Philippines PHP 51.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 3.1 14.0 24.8 52.6 52.9 53.5

Taiwan TWD 30.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -6.4 -1.3 3.8 31.2 31.5 31.9

Thailand THB 33.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -7.5 0.8 8.1 33.7 33.9 34.2

LATAM

Argentina ARS 17.7 0.1 0.3 1.3 10.5 108.3 269.8 18.3 19.0 20.3

Brazil BRL 3.3 -0.9 -0.5 2.7 0.0 27.4 58.6 3.2 3.2 3.3

Chile CLP 632.5 -0.2 0.4 0.7 -5.1 7.7 31.9 632.0 633.0 640.0

Mexico MXN 19.1 -0.3 0.4 2.5 -7.6 40.9 44.6 18.2 19.1 18.8

Colombia COP 3,017.8 -0.6 -1.2 2.4 0.6 43.6 66.1 2,990.1 3,005.0 3,034.7

Peru PEN 3.2 0.0 0.1 -0.6 -3.4 11.0 24.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.9 -0.1 0.6 2.0 -9.1 7.5 9.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

UK GBP 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.0 -5.9 21.2 21.4 0.8 0.8 0.8

Switzerland CHF 1.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 -1.8 3.5 5.4 0.9 0.9 0.9

Japan JPY 113.7 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 -2.8 -1.0 43.0 117.0 118.0 120.0

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

9 November 2017



Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

8-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 2,109.0 -1.1 -3.0 -2.9 24.6 2.4 9.7 -19.6 1788 1728 1670

Copper ($/mt) 6,855.0 0.4 -1.1 2.3 23.8 3.3 -9.9 -6.3 5900 5725 6800

Nickel ($/mt) 12,650.5 0.4 0.7 21.1 27.0 -17.1 -20.7 -60.2 10625 11250 12500

Iron Ore($/mt) 52.1 0.0 -13.0 na -33.2 -31.5 -57.1 na 69 54 56

Zinc ($/mt) 3,235.5 -0.7 -1.1 -3.4 26.2 45.8 73.0 15.8 3100 2538 2100

Tin ($/mt) 19,550.0 -0.2 0.3 -8.0 -7.3 0.1 -5.1 17.4 20510 19613 19408

OIL

WTI (Oil) 56.8 -0.7 4.2 11.9 5.8 -27.8 -32.7 -41.1 54 60 62

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,281.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 11.2 12.3 -25.4 54.2 1203 1255 1288

Palladium Spot $/Oz 1,016.1 1.9 1.8 7.8 49.2 34.0 66.0 169.9 748 783 850

Platinum Spot $/Oz 931.7 1.0 0.7 1.8 3.1 -22.7 -39.6 -36.1 996 1125 1250

Silver Spot $/Oz 17.0 0.5 -0.4 2.7 7.1 11.1 -46.5 11.6 17.2 18.5 19.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

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Macro Data GDP Growth

(YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI

(YoY %)

CA Balance

(% GDP)

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Total Govt Debt

(% GDP)

Total Ext Debt

(% GDP)

Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 3.8 3.0 191 18116 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.0 0.3 0 36.6 36.2 69.8 62.8

Egypt 3.5 4.1 NA NA 29.9 16.9 -5.1 -3.8 -10.9 -9.9 100.4 95.2 NA NA

Hungary 3.8 3.5 135 13764 2.3 2.5 3.0 2.3 -2.3 -2.4 72.8 71.5 95.3 94.8

Israel 3.6 3.6 353 40515 0.1 0.5 3.5 3.0 -2.5 -2.5 60.4 60.0 24.3 22.2

Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6 NA NA 6.5 6.5 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 NA NA NA NA

Poland 3.9 3.4 519 13649 1.8 1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -2.7 -2.9 53.3 53.9 72.0 71.7

Russia 2.0 1.8 1569 10683 3.9 3.7 2.9 3.2 -2.1 -2.2 15.2 15.7 33.6 32.6

Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6 NA NA 4.0 4.0 -6.8 -6.8 -9.5 -9.5 15.6 19.1 NA NA

South Africa 0.8 1.7 352 6201 5.2 4.4 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -3.3 51.7 52.1 36.3 30.4

Turkey 4.8 3.7 836 10525 10.8 8.4 -4.7 -4.5 -2.2 -1.5 28.4 27.7 50.1 49.2

United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.7 NA NA 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 19.1 19.0 41.0 NA

ASIA

China 6.7 6.3 12038 8540 1.7 2.7 1.3 1.1 -4 -4 41.6 42.1 13.0 13.2

India 6.5 7.5 2519 1928 3.3 4.5 -1.2 -1.5 -3.2 -3 69.1 67.4 19.3 18.5

Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1009 3854 3.9 3.2 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 27.4 28.5 31.1 28.9

Korea 2.9 2.7 1496 29339 2.2 2.1 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 41.5 42.6 24.7 23.9

Malaysia 5.5 5.0 313 9762 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -3.2 -3.0 66.3 65.6 62.1 56.2

Philippines 6.4 5.7 313 2982 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.8 44.2 43.1 23.3 21.9

Taiwan 2.2 2.2 566 24028 0.8 1.5 12.7 11.9 -0.5 -0.4 38.1 38.5 31.8 32.6

Thailand 3.7 3.6 447 6748 0.5 1.6 9.4 8.6 -2.0 -1.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6

LATAM

Argentina 2.7 2.8 610 14 27.1 17.6 -3.5 -3.5 -6.2 -5.5 45.2 50.1 31.9 31.3

Brazil 0.7 2.6 2033 9797 3.5 3.4 -0.6 -1.4 -8.1 -7.6 76.3 79.5 26.9 25.7

Chile 1.5 2.8 261 14 2.3 2.8 -3.4 -4.5 -2.9 -2.9 23.6 25.6 84.8 98.0

Colombia 1.6 2.5 303 6139 4.4 3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 45.2 46.2 42.2 42.0

Mexico 2.0 2.3 1294 10 5.8 3.7 -1.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.0 46.2 45.2 26.6 26.3

Peru 2.7 4.0 212 6671 3.1 2.4 -1.6 -1.4 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 35.6 33.0

Venezuela -7.4 -4.1 252 8005 720.5 2068.5 -3.3 -2.1 -14.2 -15.7 17.3 16.6 55.8 50.8

CEEMEA 2.9 2.8 3954 113454 7.2 5.8 -1.2 -1.1 -3.8 -3.7 33.3 33.3 45.4 43.7

ASIA 6.0 6.0 18700 87180 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.2 -3.2 -3.1 44.8 45.0 17.8 17.5

LATAM 1.1 2.3 4965 30650 44.6 109.2 -1.8 -2.2 -5.7 -5.4 54.8 56.7 33.3 32.9

EM 4.7 4.9 27619 231284 8.8 16.9 0.5 0.3 -3.6 -3.5 44.9 45.5 24.5 24.0

US 2.2 2.4 NA NA 2.2 2.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA

Europe 2.2 2.0 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 NA NA NA NA

Japan 1.8 0.7 NA NA 0.3 0.4 3.6 3.5 -3.5 -3.1 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

9 November 2017



Interest Rates Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35

Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118

Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)


9 November 2017



P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

country's 10-year historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.82 6.1% 0.0%

DM 2.44 24.0% 13.8%

US 3.26 32.1% 20.7%

Brazil 1.74 4.0% -1.0%

Chile 2.00 -2.6% -8.9%

China 2.10 10.7% 6.1%

Colombia 1.26 -25.2% -30.0%

Czech Republic 1.43 -19.5% -23.2%

Egypt 3.24 49.7% 41.8%

Greece 0.42 -62.5% -64.2%

Hungary 1.83 43.2% 35.8%

India 3.17 2.4% -3.9%

Indonesia 3.07 -13.8% -19.0%

Korea 1.27 4.8% -1.3%

Malaysia 1.65 -17.9% -23.9%

Mexico 2.64 -4.6% -12.0%

Peru 2.47 -21.7% -24.3%

Philippines 2.63 -3.3% -11.6%

Poland 1.49 6.7% 0.3%

Qatar 1.32 -33.2% -37.3%

Russia 0.82 -14.0% -16.6%

South Africa 2.45 -0.1% -7.7%

Taiwan 2.04 12.0% 4.0%

Thailand 2.22 7.4% -0.9%

Turkey 1.44 -8.8% -14.9%

UAE 1.52 15.6% 6.6% Source: Deutsche Bank

P/BV valuation – By EM Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.82 6.1% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 2.27 6.6% -1.1%

Consumer Staples 4.00 12.0% 2.5%

Energy 0.95 -19.4% -21.6%

Financials 1.27 -16.7% -21.0%

Health Care 4.06 11.6% 1.9%

Industrial 1.47 -10.0% -14.9%

Information Technology 3.45 57.6% 46.3%

Materials 1.51 -5.2% -9.0%

Real Estate 1.53 12.8% 2.0%

Telco 2.01 -13.0% -18.7%

Utilities 1.13 -2.1% -9.2% Source: Deutsche Bank

9 November 2017



CEEMEA valuation 11/08/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Abu Dhabi Comm Bank ADCB.AD Buy 7.15 -0.3 3.6 8.80 15.6 16.3 9.0 8.0 1.3 5.9 10085

Akbank AKBNK.IS Hold 9.83 -1.9 14.6 10.40 16.6 16.1 7.3 6.7 1.2 2.3 10166

Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 63.20 -1.7 0.3 71.50 16.3 16.4 11.7 10.9 1.8 3.6 27381

Alawwal bank 1040.SE Hold 11.80 0.0 -15.4 12.50 8.7 13.0 12.0 7.5 1.0 2.1 3596

Alinma Bank 1150.SE Hold 17.72 0.3 17.4 17.00 9.2 11.1 14.6 11.5 1.3 3.4 7034

Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 24.90 -0.4 12.4 26.25 12.7 12.6 8.1 7.7 1.0 3.6 6639

Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 56.00 2.2 -13.1 32.00 5.2 NA na na 0.4 NA 416

Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Hold 29.80 0.7 14.2 32.25 13.0 13.3 9.1 8.5 1.2 3.5 9540

Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 144 0.3 -17.4 175.00 15.2 14.3 7.8 7.4 1.1 7.3 8612

Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 935 0.9 30.5 360.00 25.7 25.4 28.7 24.7 6.8 1.3 7647

CIB COMI.CA Hold 77.00 -0.6 8.3 73.00 36.3 33.1 10.8 9.3 3.0 2.1 5035

Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU Buy 6.03 -0.2 8.2 7.30 22.4 21.1 8.3 8.5 1.6 7.6 8096

Emirates NBD ENBD.DU Buy 8.38 1.0 -1.3 12.75 16.7 16.0 6.4 6.1 0.9 5.6 12679

First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD Hold 10.20 -1.5 6.6 11.40 12.2 12.5 10.7 9.9 1.2 5.1 30136

Garanti GARAN.IS Buy 10.38 -0.5 24.2 11.40 16.2 16.0 7.1 6.4 1.1 2.9 11271

Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 10.32 -0.1 0.7 15.00 16.7 15.3 3.4 3.2 0.5 2.0 3335

Isbank ISCTR.IS Hold 6.95 -1.4 22.3 7.70 14.2 13.7 5.8 5.5 0.8 3.8 8086

National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 716 2.3 11.2 850.00 11.1 13.9 13.3 9.8 0.0 3.8 13758

NCB 1180.SE Hold 52.40 1.2 23.0 48.00 17.5 17.2 11.2 10.6 1.8 3.1 27898

Nedbank NEDJ.J Buy 210 0.5 -14.6 225.00 14.6 14.6 8.9 8.3 1.2 5.9 7096

Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 120 -0.2 -21.3 150.00 20.7 19.1 8.5 7.9 1.5 3.7 28934

RAKBANK RAKB.AD Hold 5.00 4.2 1.0 5.05 10.8 11.9 10.0 9.1 1.1 6.0 2282

Riyad Bank 1010.SE Hold 12.10 0.8 4.8 10.50 9.0 10.0 10.7 9.4 1.0 5.4 9678

Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Hold 23.44 0.8 -3.7 24.00 11.1 11.6 9.3 8.5 1.0 4.1 11845

Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Buy 25.15 0.6 0.6 29.00 13.1 13.1 9.0 8.5 1.1 3.1 10058

Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 209 1.7 25.0 215.00 20.2 19.6 7.4 6.6 1.4 0.0 77485

Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 168 1.6 7.3 170.00 16.3 16.3 10.8 10.1 1.7 5.2 19265

TCS TCSq.L Sell 18.50 1.6 75.4 7.30 31.1 29.8 18.7 15.5 5.2 1.5 3379

Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 5.99 0.2 25.6 6.90 15.8 14.7 4.5 4.2 0.7 0.8 3872

VTB VTBRq.L Sell 2.08 0.3 -13.0 0.80 2.3 NA na na 0.5 0.0 13453

Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 4.46 -1.4 18.6 4.80 12.2 12.4 5.7 5.0 0.7 0.0 5012

Consumer Discretionary

Al Tayyar 1810.SE Buy 25.95 -3.5 -29.3 45.00 5.2 4.7 7.4 7.3 0.9 3.9 1450

Alhokair 4240.SE Hold 30.05 1.0 -18.3 42.00 9.7 9.0 19.5 13.9 2.2 0.0 1682

CCC CCCP.WA Buy 266 1.1 50.4 340.00 19.7 14.7 33.6 22.5 6.5 1.0 2889

Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Hold 25.50 0.1 18.4 28.00 7.2 6.7 15.0 12.9 1.3 1.3 4459

Herfy 6002.SE Buy 44.70 -0.7 -42.7 70.00 9.8 8.9 12.5 11.4 3.2 4.9 771

Imperial IPLJ.J Buy 207 -0.6 10.1 210.00 6.2 5.7 11.6 12.1 2.1 4.2 2846

Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 141 -0.4 22.2 137.00 15.5 14.2 15.9 14.8 7.5 5.0 3393

LPP LPPP.WA Hold 8,421 -2.0 69.6 8,000.00 16.1 13.6 30.1 25.7 6.0 0.4 4221

Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 194 1.7 18.2 192.00 14.0 12.5 22.6 19.8 7.4 3.5 3516

Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 3,559 -1.5 71.4 3,552.00 1,516.7 248.8 39.0 45.0 7.3 0.3 108545

Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 129 0.5 37.8 105.00 18.0 14.7 30.6 24.2 2.9 2.0 51411

SACO 4008.SE Hold 103 -3.0 20.6 90.00 14.0 12.4 18.2 16.3 4.6 4.4 658

STAR SRRJ.J Buy 24.01 -1.1 4.7 24.00 13.8 12.2 25.1 23.5 1.6 2.0 5859

Steinhoff SNHJ.J Hold 59.30 -3.7 -19.3 70.00 9.2 8.1 11.5 10.1 1.0 0.8 17861

Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 40.22 1.4 1.0 46.00 6.1 4.9 11.7 10.6 1.7 1.6 991

The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Hold 140 -1.0 -14.4 142.00 8.5 8.4 13.6 13.2 3.2 5.0 2108

Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 70.93 1.0 -13.7 92.00 7.4 6.8 12.7 10.2 3.4 6.3 2149

Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 55.91 0.4 -23.7 61.00 8.1 8.2 17.7 13.9 2.8 5.6 3800

Consumer Staples

Almarai 2280.SE Sell 54.50 -0.5 0.8 48.00 15.9 15.5 24.0 23.1 3.7 1.3 14530

AVI AVIJ.J Buy 98.36 2.1 4.4 110.00 12.0 10.8 18.5 17.5 6.6 3.9 2261

BidCorp BIDJ.J Hold 312 1.8 23.5 305.00 15.8 14.2 22.2 23.3 4.4 1.6 7332

British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 924 1.5 15.1 600.00 14.1 na 18.4 na 0.2 3.5 112439

Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 159 0.7 33.2 144.00 17.6 15.5 25.8 28.0 11.4 1.1 2653

Eurocash EUR.WA Buy 35.05 -0.6 1.8 42.00 11.9 10.8 29.8 22.6 4.7 2.1 1331

Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 6.15 -1.4 -25.0 6.80 7.7 6.7 13.4 11.4 2.5 0.0 2993

Magnit MGNT.MM Hold 7,398 0.4 -29.8 9,000.00 9.3 7.8 18.5 14.1 3.3 3.4 11827

Magnit MGNTq.L Hold 26.90 -0.5 -38.7 37.00 9.8 8.2 19.9 15.1 3.6 3.2 12719

Massmart MSMJ.J Hold 112 3.1 -14.3 119.00 8.2 7.5 19.7 17.3 3.6 2.5 1706

Othaim 4001.SE Hold 120 -1.8 21.7 116.00 15.0 13.0 19.2 16.9 3.8 1.7 1437

Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 58.92 0.4 -10.3 62.00 10.7 9.7 28.6 21.3 7.1 2.7 2010

Pioneer PFGJ.J Buy 120 2.4 -24.4 130.00 13.2 9.0 23.3 15.0 3.4 2.6 1588

Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 209 1.3 18.5 204.00 11.1 10.1 19.4 18.4 4.3 2.5 8043

Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Hold 167 1.1 -18.2 167.00 11.6 10.6 17.5 15.9 5.1 3.7 2275

Tiger Brands TBSJ.J Hold 391 1.9 -4.6 410.00 12.8 11.5 18.6 16.5 3.8 2.7 4595

X5 Retail Group PJPq.L Buy 40.25 -1.8 24.0 57.00 8.3 6.8 19.3 14.1 4.0 1.3 10929

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

9 November 2017




Diversified Financials

Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 7.20 0.4 -12.2 7.75 na na 13.3 11.4 na 5.6 642

Brait BATJ.J Buy 49.12 3.3 -45.6 64.00 na na na na na NA 1758

Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 76.25 -1.7 4.9 68.00 13.1 13.1 17.2 14.9 12.7 5.8 1886

FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 53.06 1.6 -3.2 50.00 3.0 3.0 10.8 11.4 2.7 4.8 21046

Investec INVP.L Buy 523 1.4 3.7 590.00 0.0 0.0 11.7 10.3 0.0 4.6 6167

Investec INLJ.J Buy 97.40 1.0 4.1 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.8 1.4 4.6 6203

JSE JSEJ.J Buy 136 2.4 -20.0 144.00 10.8 8.6 14.8 12.3 3.8 4.1 821

Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 127 1.8 4.8 185.00 5.8 5.6 11.6 11.3 2.2 6.3 4790

Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 29.12 0.6 -5.9 31.75 na na 12.7 10.0 na 4.5 435

RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 64.84 2.7 -5.3 63.00 2.4 2.4 11.9 11.2 2.2 5.0 6474

Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 14.70 0.9 -1.4 16.75 2.8 2.8 15.4 12.7 2.6 2.3 621

Energy

Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.71 -2.7 31.5 0.62 20.4 20.9 na na 0.5 0.0 1347

Gazprom GAZP.MM Hold 132 0.2 -11.3 115.00 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.5 0.2 6.6 49431

Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 257 -2.0 24.4 230.00 4.1 3.7 4.7 3.8 0.8 4.3 20487

Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 15.55 -0.6 -52.6 27.00 8.6 7.0 26.6 11.6 0.8 6.2 753

KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Buy 10.85 0.0 41.1 12.00 0.8 0.9 7.2 12.4 0.7 1.3 4447

LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,336 0.5 0.2 3,800.00 3.5 3.5 7.1 7.1 0.7 5.9 40208

Novatek NVTKq.L Hold 117 0.3 -9.9 102.00 10.9 10.5 14.3 13.1 2.8 2.1 35301

Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 333 1.1 -14.3 390.00 5.3 4.5 6.2 5.1 0.9 3.0 59672

Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 431 -0.4 4.7 370.00 6.4 7.2 11.0 12.1 1.2 3.7 18610

Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 31.46 3.0 1.6 32.00 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.8 0.4 1.9 23094

Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 30.60 1.8 2.4 29.00 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.7 0.4 2.0 22466

Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 490 -0.2 18.9 525.00 5.3 5.8 7.7 8.6 1.5 10.7 18645

TMK TRMKq.L Buy 5.76 -0.2 12.9 7.00 6.7 7.3 12.2 21.2 1.8 2.7 1513

Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 182,600 -0.9 -4.4 250,000.00 3.7 3.5 5.9 5.8 0.7 4.6 21991

Health Care

Aspen APNJ.J Hold 318 2.0 8.6 305.00 15.6 13.5 21.5 18.0 3.0 0.9 10250

IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.07 3.6 20.6 3.21 17.2 14.5 27.4 22.5 4.8 3.5 611

Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 24.80 0.9 -26.2 30.60 8.7 8.4 13.7 15.0 2.6 4.4 2243

MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.50 0.0 11.9 13.80 11.1 10.8 17.0 17.2 3.2 1.6 786

Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 113 3.0 -15.7 150.00 12.4 10.6 19.4 15.3 0.0 1.3 5887

Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 607 1.8 -16.4 860.00 12.4 10.5 19.3 15.2 0.0 1.3 5852

Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 24.89 2.0 -24.2 29.20 8.9 8.3 13.1 12.5 2.8 4.0 2406

NMC Health NMC.L Buy 3,059 -4.7 111 3,920.00 25.9 20.4 41.5 29.4 7.6 0.4 8305

SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 28.80 0.0 -29.4 50.00 16.0 14.7 13.6 12.7 1.1 3.5 921

Industrials

Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.86 -1.0 -46.5 2.96 15.8 12.5 41.1 36.1 2.7 0.0 1168

Barloworld BAWJ.J Hold 138 0.8 13.8 128.00 5.4 4.9 14.5 11.9 1.5 2.8 2067

Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 177 0.9 -5.3 168.00 7.7 7.9 14.7 14.1 2.7 3.0 4175

DP World DPW.DI Buy 23.60 1.3 34.8 28.00 10.1 9.2 15.5 14.0 2.0 1.7 19588

Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 1.83 -1.6 -4.7 0.40 na 34.7 na 56.4 3.4 0.0 1122

Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 5.81 -1.2 -1.5 5.70 7.6 7.1 10.8 10.3 1.0 2.0 6309

Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.95 0.0 -1.3 4.50 6.9 6.1 8.8 8.0 1.9 0.0 755

Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 9.67 1.8 52.8 9.50 5.6 4.8 12.7 10.4 2.1 8.8 1728

Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 94.00 -1.0 -24.2 125.00 46.8 38.9 14.7 13.3 1.5 4.3 14809

Orascom Construction OC.DI Buy 7.49 0.0 42.9 7.60 4.0 4.4 7.7 8.1 2.4 0.0 882

Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 14.54 3.3 105 10.70 7.1 6.9 9.1 9.0 1.9 2.1 1391

Insurance

Discovery DSYJ.J Sell 149 2.0 25.9 125.00 na na 20.6 17.8 na 1.3 6783

Liberty LBHJ.J Buy 112 0.7 -2.4 125.00 na na 11.0 9.8 na 6.4 2207

MMI MMIJ.J Hold 19.45 0.5 -20.0 20.00 na na 9.7 9.1 na 8.1 2207

Old Mutual OMLJ.J Buy 35.74 0.8 0.6 44.00 na na 0.1 0.1 na 355.9 12060

RMI RMIJ.J Hold 39.18 0.7 -4.5 41.00 na na 14.9 12.3 na 3.0 4118

Sanlam SLMJ.J Buy 72.35 1.1 11.5 84.00 na na 15.3 13.3 na 4.1 10471

Santam SNTJ.J Hold 252 2.0 4.3 285.00 na na na na na na na



9 November 2017




Materials

Alrosa ALRS.MM Buy 76.16 -1.3 -19.0 97.00 4.9 4.4 8.9 8.0 1.7 4.7 9291

Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 412 1.5 51.1 375.00 10.2 14.2 36.0 62.4 2.7 0.0 7641

AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Hold 139 1.5 -11.4 130.00 7.2 5.1 56.6 16.9 1.5 0.0 4070

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 999 0.8 57.3 800.00 7.0 6.9 18.4 19.0 1.8 3.1 12897

Erdemir EREGL.IS Sell 9.51 -0.6 68.7 7.30 6.3 7.3 9.0 11.2 2.0 8.4 8605

Evraz EVRE.L Hold 290 -1.3 39.2 295.00 4.2 5.0 5.2 6.7 4.5 8.0 5355

Gold Fields GFIJ.J Hold 57.65 0.9 28.3 52.00 4.3 4.6 15.7 26.0 1.1 2.0 3346

Harmony HARJ.J Sell 25.58 2.9 -21.3 21.00 7.9 4.0 13.6 18.3 0.4 3.9 792

Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 39.95 -0.8 -9.4 35.00 9.4 12.0 na na 0.6 0.2 2029

KGHM KGH.WA Hold 121 -0.5 49.9 131.00 4.7 3.7 6.8 5.4 1.3 1.2 6635

Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 12.54 -4.7 -48.2 9.50 na na na na 0.2 0.0 250

Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 52.90 -0.2 35.7 31.00 24.1 18.1 86.2 46.6 2.4 0.0 16480

Magnitogorsk Steel MAGNq.L Hold 10.20 5.3 46.1 7.80 4.7 5.1 8.3 10.7 1.6 2.4 8706

Mechel MTL.N Sell 4.90 0.6 -14.5 3.71 4.6 5.1 1.9 2.7 na 0.0 1428

Nampak NPKJ.J Buy 17.60 0.5 -8.0 22.50 4.8 4.1 8.2 7.9 1.1 0.0 797

NLMK NLMKq.L Sell 22.15 0.0 19.1 16.80 5.9 7.0 10.1 13.5 2.0 7.4 13275

Norilsk Nickel NKELyq.L Hold 19.63 -1.1 16.9 18.40 9.1 7.9 12.5 11.2 8.7 9.6 30809

Northam NHMJ.J Hold 50.90 -2.4 21.9 48.00 23.4 16.9 na na 2.2 0.0 1260

Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 36.25 -0.8 12.2 40.00 6.1 5.6 24.3 15.1 2.3 2.8 641

PHOSAGRO PHORq.L Hold 14.20 -0.7 -6.9 13.00 7.0 6.5 9.5 9.0 3.1 5.3 5517

Polymetal POLYP.L Hold 899 1.0 11.7 870.00 8.2 7.5 14.6 13.2 4.1 2.1 5003

RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 34.00 0.6 -7.4 31.00 29.6 444.9 374.9 na 0.6 0.0 463

SABIC 2010.SE Hold 100 1.0 9.3 95.00 7.8 7.3 15.6 15.0 1.7 4.0 79983

Severstal SVSTq.L Hold 15.35 0.7 1.0 14.20 5.5 5.5 8.0 8.5 3.7 9.3 12469

Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 19.76 1.7 -24.5 15.50 6.8 5.5 na 30.8 1.8 1.6 2553

United Company RUSAL 0486.HK Sell 5.43 1.2 64.6 4.32 8.7 7.8 6.8 5.9 2.3 2.7 10582

Real Estate

Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.23 -2.2 -15.2 3.00 7.2 7.6 9.0 9.7 0.8 4.9 4773

Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 18.65 1.1 7.1 22.00 28.9 26.2 20.5 17.3 0.9 0.0 927

Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.62 -4.7 57.4 3.20 4.9 4.6 6.2 6.0 1.5 6.9 5962

Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 8.16 1.0 32.7 6.00 21.0 19.2 33.8 27.7 0.5 0.0 2350

Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 12.16 3.1 -29.1 12.10 57.8 42.9 71.1 43.8 1.2 0.0 2756

Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.23 -1.3 -15.5 2.70 12.4 11.1 14.5 13.1 1.7 4.5 7901

Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 8.00 -0.6 14.6 10.70 8.4 7.7 9.3 8.7 1.3 2.6 15593

Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 13.15 0.9 -10.8 14.50 12.1 11.9 14.1 10.3 0.7 0.0 464

Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.71 -0.4 -17.4 3.19 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.9 0.8 0.0 2662

Equites EQUJ.J Buy 21.00 1.0 28.9 21.50 18.4 12.6 7.8 17.2 1.4 0.0 441

Etalon Group ETLNGq.L Buy 4.10 0.6 28.3 3.40 11.9 5.1 17.9 6.5 1.2 1.2 1197

Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 40.76 1.5 22.3 42.00 20.5 19.4 10.4 17.6 0.9 0.0 3013

Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 17.00 -0.1 -0.5 18.80 12.2 11.9 5.4 8.0 0.4 0.0 1375

Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 24.68 1.7 -7.6 27.00 13.1 12.3 17.0 12.7 0.8 0.0 4994

Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 108 0.8 -10.8 125.00 17.1 17.3 18.9 14.8 1.1 0.0 1888

LSR LSRGq.L Hold 2.90 -1.4 -16.1 2.60 6.2 5.5 8.9 6.6 1.3 9.2 1491

Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Sell 19.50 1.2 -14.2 18.00 10.8 9.8 8.6 8.1 0.7 0.0 360

Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 4.04 0.0 33.9 3.80 9.9 7.3 13.2 8.3 1.3 0.0 529

Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.65 1.2 -7.7 11.50 16.8 15.1 13.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 3807Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 142 0.4 20.0 140.00 35.0 33.8 17.2 22.8 1.7 0.0 4019SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.79 0.5 -17.3 5.80 12.4 12.5 10.5 9.9 0.8 0.0 786SODIC OCDI.CA Buy 18.76 -0.3 29.5 16.40 9.9 6.0 12.7 8.8 1.5 0.0 360TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.31 2.0 5.3 11.00 12.8 12.2 14.6 13.5 0.7 1.6 1089Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 19.50 1.3 1.2 20.00 13.5 11.6 11.1 12.7 1.0 0.0 949

Telecommunication ServicesDigi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 35.50 -1.3 -11.4 45.00 5.3 4.7 13.6 13.1 8.5 0.0 889Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 17.20 -1.4 -8.5 15.10 6.0 5.7 14.3 13.9 3.3 5.3 40722MegaFon MFONq.L Buy 10.74 -0.8 13.7 15.50 5.0 4.7 14.1 11.7 2.7 5.5 5979Mobily 7020.SE Sell 13.50 1.1 -43.7 12.00 5.3 5.0 na na 0.7 0.0 2771MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 128 2.9 -1.8 136.00 6.7 6.1 27.7 19.4 2.1 5.5 16248MTS MBT.N Buy 11.08 -1.9 21.6 12.50 5.2 4.9 11.5 11.6 4.8 8.1 10842Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 84.24 -2.2 -21.6 107.00 3.9 3.5 12.6 10.6 1.1 4.7 7027Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.52 -1.9 -20.7 1.15 1.9 na 7.2 na 1.3 9.5 886Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 70.00 1.2 -3.4 80.00 5.2 5.1 12.9 13.6 2.2 5.7 37326Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 13.33 4.7 17.7 16.90 6.2 5.3 7.6 6.5 0.7 7.5 1289Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 53.59 3.1 -29.8 63.00 3.0 3.4 9.2 9.8 1.0 7.9 1948Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 6.29 -0.9 8.6 6.30 5.2 4.6 13.4 9.2 4.4 0.0 5692Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 14.01 -2.2 31.0 18.00 6.3 5.5 12.4 10.1 2.1 10.0 7944Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 152 1.9 -3.3 166.00 7.9 7.3 17.3 15.7 9.3 5.2 15791

UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 474 -0.8 27.5 500.00 7.6 7.4 13.1 17.8 1.0 7.0 11462Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 177 -0.1 -26.1 215.00 13.2 12.7 12.2 11.0 2.2 4.2 5067



9 November 2017



Latam valuation 11/08/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 91.15 -0.1 29.4 87.00 19.4 19.3 16.5 15.4 3.1 3.6 15107

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 33.11 6.2 17.9 39.00 12.1 13.1 7.0 5.8 1.0 3.1 29169

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 38.16 1.7 4.0 45.00 10.7 12.0 11.9 9.8 1.2 3.2 9176

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 115 -1.1 21.5 143.00 16.6 17.6 12.8 11.0 2.6 4.6 16681

Bladex BLX.N Hold 28.46 1.6 -3.3 25.00 8.5 9.3 12.9 11.4 1.1 5.5 1118

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 10.40 3.5 19.4 8.00 15.6 18.0 9.9 9.0 1.8 3.1 63285

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 206 -0.5 33.9 242.00 19.4 18.9 14.4 12.5 2.5 4.9 16465

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 13.05 3.8 26.9 11.00 20.0 21.0 11.1 9.8 2.2 5.3 84882

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 9.20 4.2 3.5 8.00 12.4 16.2 13.2 11.6 2.0 5.7 34493

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 31.07 1.0 42.1 29.00 18.7 18.2 16.6 15.8 3.0 3.6 14638

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.23 0.9 14.5 10.00 15.7 15.6 11.8 10.9 1.8 4.1 11156

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 48.34 7.0 92.9 32.00 19.4 16.9 27.6 24.7 6.3 3.1 1320

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 18.82 5.7 84.5 16.50 14.7 11.9 na na 2.2 0.0 2665

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 28.05 2.7 85.6 23.00 16.9 14.6 17.3 16.8 3.6 4.8 1391

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 6,030 0.5 19.5 7,215.00 17.9 16.9 27.5 24.8 3.3 1.4 23211

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 131 1.0 -5.4 187.50 10.5 9.1 18.6 14.5 2.0 0.6 9191

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 15.83 4.1 -6.9 18.80 11.2 9.8 71.5 34.4 11.4 0.1 6987

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 35.76 3.8 54.4 32.60 18.3 15.6 35.6 28.6 8.5 1.0 7819

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 79.86 0.8 24.5 94.00 9.3 8.5 17.1 15.2 2.8 2.0 3595

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 35.46 -1.8 4.9 54.00 6.9 6.0 10.9 10.7 19.8 9.2 1769

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 81.20 5.0 -11.9 97.00 13.1 12.0 12.4 13.8 11.7 7.7 3092

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,460 0.6 9.8 23,400.00 6.8 6.3 34.0 21.0 0.8 1.2 2441

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.18 1.0 25.9 6.15 16.3 14.0 28.8 24.3 8.0 4.0 97049

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 125 0.6 25.4 106.00 10.3 7.8 23.2 18.1 3.1 1.9 11572

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 13.25 3.2 -10.2 15.50 9.6 7.7 28.7 15.4 2.5 0.4 10586

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 75.41 3.0 37.8 114.00 8.4 7.7 34.2 25.7 2.5 0.3 6151

CCU CCU.N Hold 26.99 -0.1 28.6 25.00 10.5 9.6 25.0 21.7 2.7 2.2 4986

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,870 -1.7 4.9 2,000.00 9.2 8.6 18.7 18.0 1.3 1.7 8404

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 37.68 1.4 9.9 40.00 6.7 5.7 17.9 15.7 1.3 0.0 1903

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 67.91 0.6 6.9 80.00 8.8 7.8 18.6 17.1 2.4 2.6 14267

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 35.00 0.0 8.1 38.00 11.6 9.3 18.7 14.1 1.6 2.3 1307

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 29.01 1.1 29.1 32.00 10.3 9.0 26.4 22.3 3.4 2.4 4577

Femsa FMX.N Buy 86.64 -0.1 13.7 114.00 9.2 7.6 22.4 19.5 2.6 1.5 31002

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 255 -2.2 4.7 310.00 9.3 8.4 15.9 14.5 2.6 1.1 5771

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 44.98 -2.1 3.6 58.00 9.8 8.1 29.0 21.1 3.3 0.7 11083

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 33.77 -1.0 -2.1 41.00 13.7 12.2 25.0 21.1 15.7 4.7 5461

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 11.20 4.3 -7.8 24.25 6.4 5.1 19.4 31.3 6.2 5.8 778

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 29.52 6.6 28.3 26.50 10.2 9.0 27.8 22.2 9.5 0.9 3914

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.51 0.3 -2.5 44.00 7.4 6.5 16.1 13.9 1.2 0.0 3820

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 44.26 1.4 29.3 47.20 13.6 12.4 23.8 21.7 5.0 5.5 40489

Diversified Financials

B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 23.22 3.7 40.8 23.00 17.4 14.6 21.4 20.0 0.7 8.2 14693

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 32.43 -1.1 28.6 45.00 10.9 10.1 16.9 16.1 na 3.8 1007

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 29.74 -0.4 17.7 36.00 1.3 1.3 6.5 5.7 1.2 0.8 611

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 19.30 -2.3 -37.4 35.00 2.0 2.0 8.1 7.0 1.8 4.0 1642

Energy

Petrobras PETR4.SA Hold 16.95 3.7 14.0 20.80 5.4 4.6 20.2 8.8 0.8 0.2 67978

Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 17.74 3.7 4.7 20.80 6.6 5.6 21.1 9.2 1.2 0.1 101700

Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Hold 6.83 0.1 -29.1 8.00 15.4 14.6 6.2 5.1 5.0 2.4 6839

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 24.65 5.3 14.7 31.00 25.6 19.8 144.9 54.7 12.0 0.0 7745

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 122 -0.2 34.4 137.00 9.4 9.4 14.5 14.4 2.7 1.6 5180

Embraer ERJ.N Hold 19.87 -0.9 4.1 22.00 5.7 6.6 11.5 17.0 0.9 3.3 3676

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 21.50 12.2 57.9 27.00 19.9 18.3 73.9 89.4 na 0.2 7472

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 30.50 -0.3 -15.6 35.00 8.1 5.6 na 9.3 1.5 0.0 1124

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 13.46 1.6 65.0 15.00 9.4 8.3 37.6 14.8 2.7 0.8 8162

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 10.00 0.0 -33.5 12.00 405.6 60.9 na 103.8 19.8 0.0 10119

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 23.25 0.6 -16.6 26.00 13.0 12.2 15.8 15.2 4.1 1.0 19420

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 37.00 0.6 37.6 38.00 na na 11.8 10.5 1.8 3.4 3676

Materials

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 999 0.8 57.3 800.00 7.0 6.9 18.4 19.1 1.8 3.1 12897

Cemex CX.N Buy 8.18 1.2 1.9 11.40 7.7 6.6 17.0 11.4 1.3 0.0 11732

Vale VALE.N Buy 10.39 0.7 36.4 12.00 5.2 4.8 9.3 9.3 1.2 2.7 53765

Telecommunication Services

America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.39 -0.3 38.3 21.00 6.0 5.6 19.5 17.7 4.1 0.9 57304

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 15.25 2.0 18.7 21.00 6.4 5.9 17.9 14.6 1.2 5.4 25753

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 18.30 4.5 56.0 22.00 5.0 4.4 25.7 18.4 1.6 0.5 8859



9 November 2017



Appendix1

Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

46 % 47 %

7 %37 % 32 %

17 %0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

9 November 2017



Additional Information

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Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or the liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors to be considered. The sensitivity of fixed income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. It is important to note that the index fixings may -- by construction -- lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. It is also important to acknowledge that funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Naturally, options on swaps (swaptions) also bear the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for use by investors is dependent on the investors' own circumstances including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities, and as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document.

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9 November 2017



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