CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/.../0cacbd56-3cdf-4103-92f4-6712de68597c.pdf · · 2018-01-26CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 17 January 2018. Gautam Kalani. Page 2 Deutsche

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global

Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date 17 January 2018

Wednesday, 17 January 2018

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU.

Pascal Moura

Head of Research

(+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected]

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

(+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected]

CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE Lenta (Buy, TP USD7.60) - Upgrading to Buy

COMPANY UPDATE Emirates NBD Alert (Buy, TP AED12.75) - Q4-17 first take: EPS 5% above, BS inline, dividends below MMI Alert (Hold, TP ZAR20.00) - New unknown CEO; no change in strategy

LATAM Companies COMPANY UPDATE Concha y Toro (Buy, TP USD48.00) - Recent strength justified by improving harvest/SG&A outlook (maintain Buy) Carrefour Brasil (Buy, TP BRL20.50) - 4Q17 sales

STRATEGY EM Daily - Ukraine: Struggle is still on Weekly Fund Flows - Synchronized inflows

MACRO Brazil Update - The economy is firming up Special Report - A quant-macro approach to EM FX Strategy: Menu of tools China Macro - DB China conference: macro highlights

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

RBPlat RBP SJ 2.7 10.0 MMI MMI SJ 1.8 8.0 Imperial IPL SJ 21.1 6.6 The Foschini Group

TFG SJ 14.7 5.7

Telkom SA Ltd TKG SJ 4.0 5.1 Emaar Economic City EMAAR AB 3.7 4.9 Fortress FFB SJ 3.1 4.8 Pioneer PFG SJ 11.6 4.7 Massmart MSM SJ 10.9 4.6 Standard Bank SBK SJ 16.0 4.5 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Impala Platinum IMP SJ 2.7 -3.7 Gold Fields GFI SJ 4.3 -3.7 AngloGold Ashanti ANG SJ 11.0 -3.3 Sibanye-Stillwater SGL SJ 1.3 -3.2 Peregrine PGR SJ 2.0 -2.8 Magnit MGNT LI 28.0 -2.7 X5 Retail Group FIVE LI 40.4 -2.7 Magnit MGNT RM 113.5 -2.7 Drake & Scull DSI DB 0.6 -2.7 Arabtec Holding ARTC DB 0.7 -2.5

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Volaris VLRS US 8.7 8.3 Kimberly-Clark de

KIMBERA MM 1.9 3.1

Chedraui CHDRAUIB MM 2.2 3.0 Azul S.A. AZUL US 25.5 3.0 Femsa FMX UN 97.5 2.3 Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX* MM 2.5 2.2 Cielo CIEL3 BZ 7.6 2.1 Liverpool LIVEPOLC MM 7.0 2.0 Porto Seguro PSSA3 BZ 13.3 1.9 Bancolombia CIB US 43.5 1.9 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg CBD-GPA PCAR4 BZ 23.2 -2.9 Vale VALE UN 13.2 -2.7 Natura NATU3 BS 10.2 -2.7 Banorte GFNORTEO MM 5.7 -2.3 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.6 -2.3 LATAM Airlines

LTM US 15.8 -2.2

Credito Real CREAL* MM 1.3 -2.2 Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA UN 138.1 -2.1 Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 4.8 -1.9 JBS JBSS3 BS 3.0 -1.9

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

Distributed on: 17/01/2018 04:52:58 GMT

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Russia / CIS LatamIvan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Grant Sporre Commodities +44 207 545 8170 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063

Marcel Moraes Retail +1 904 271 2470Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619

Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949South Africa Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568

Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267

GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732Marc Hammoud Telco +971 4 4283910 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094

Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118

CE3 Middle EastJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Tomasz Krukowski Consumer, O&G, Industrials +48 22 579 8732 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Carlos Galindo Economist +44 207 547 6269 Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Alizerra Kharazi MENA +44 207 5450083

Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864

Source: Deutsche Bank

17 January 2018


Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

ASIAN MARKET

TOP STORIES Asia Equity Strategy – Viewfinder 2018: Second verse, same as the first (Khoi LeBinh) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/469-AC33/64888420/0900b8c08e1df3e3.pdf China Macro – DB China conference: macro highlights (Zhiwei Zhang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6097-3522/63298921/China_Macro.pdf Reliance Industries (RELI.BO, Buy) – Value drivers intact, reiterating Buy (Harshad Katkar) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/582-4F7B/65273935/0900b8c08e19483c.pdf

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES China Healthcare – Monthly data tracker: December 2017 (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3307-7E2F/64969703/d51ba2ca-f450-11e7-9575-f5c5f970fa55_604.pdf Fujifilm Holdings (4901.T, Buy) – Business conditions remain strong (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/247-0C51/64160071/0900b8c08e1d99c3.pdf Konica Minolta (4902.T, Hold) – Somewhat high expectations are factored in the share price (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/247-F1F1/62992869/0900b8c08e1d4211.pdf Ricoh (7752.T, Buy) – Time to evaluate FY3/19’s earnings recovery potential is approaching (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/249-BE7E/63368242/0900b8c08e1d3a7b.pdf Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – Earnings forecasts increased 4%; additional benefits from US tax reform (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/193-1D0B/63079525/0900b8c08e1d630b.pdf Airtac International (1590.TW, Buy) – Another year of growth with margin expansions (James Chiu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/568-2700/64238110/0900b8c08e1d5fc0.pdf UPL (UPLL.BO, Buy) – Wet weather in Brazil improves revenue growth outlook (Amit Murarka) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/632-AED9/63271549/0900b8c08e1d8d7f.pdf

MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – US equity rally fizzles; focus turns to the BoC today… (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8238-661E/65199222/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2018-01-16_820fcdfa-fa35-11e7-8a78-f8f3716073c2_604.pdf Dollar Bloc Strategy – Revised - SSA themes: buy off-the-run, buy dips against sub-AAA semis (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/785-2735/62391969/2e141a3c-fa4c-11e7-8a78-f8f3716073c2_604.pdf Asia Credit – Japanese lifers: overlooked & valuable - Buy NIPLIF c27s and DAIL c26s (Viacheslav Shilin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2355-0AE2/63606519/DB_AsiaCredit_2018-01-16_0900b8c08e1c7926.pdf Data Flash (New Zealand) – NZ Q4-17 CPI Forecast at 0.4%qoq (Phil Odonaghoe) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/826-312B/63253959/51aea50c-2009-447d-bc77-76557991c593_604.pdf FX Daily – Can AUD/USD get over 80c? (Tim Baker) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3556-08BB/62824198/DB_FXDaily_2018-01-16_0900b8c08e1bf2b6.pdf India Equity Strategy – India Model Portfolio - Earnings support vs. Yield resistance (Abhay Laijawala) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/471-CE80/62841738/ae0492f4-7ea5-4d6c-b828-04dceb4ababb_604.pdf Data Flash – What to expect from the BoK (Juliana Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2660-C046/63398401/DB_DataFlash_2018-01-16_0900b8c08e1db00d.pdf Fed Watcher – Data support our four hike call amid mixed Fedspeak (Matthew Luzzetti) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8345-4466/63506796/FedWatcher_16Jan2018.pdf

HONG KONG / CHINA China Oil & Gas – Trip takeaways: major refiners over teapots in 2018 (Johnson Wan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/722-7C1A/62530901/43ab6246-a03e-42e8-8882-5a5df16d871f_604.pdf China Renewables – China Renewables: Takeaways from AC conference track/meetings (Michael Tong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/743-DE8B/63215193/b3992a49-485d-4323-acd4-6c4f7a0ec346_604.pdf Chinese telcos and equipment vendors – China starts third phase of 5G R&D trials (James Wang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/620-93F3/64456399/0900b8c08e1dcab8.pdf Gome (0493.HK, Hold) – Access China Conference Highlights (Anne Ling) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/860-5664/64129789/09fe750e-851b-46f5-90f8-1b40f15e1b53_604.pdf

17 January 2018


Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

HONG KONG / CHINA Lithium battery industry – Access China conference highlights (James Kan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/707-1D1D/63305326/a5af90d2-a845-4e22-aac3-a70e7616cf0d_604.pdf Macau – Mass surprised; +ve for Sands (Karen Tang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/953-8B3E/65028147/d85f0ad6-f77e-11e7-9575-f5c5f970fa55_604.pdf Metals & Mining – Access China Metals Mining trip key take-aways (Sharon Ding) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/732-D509/64261113/d9f2b68e-3cd3-460b-9db4-01c1665836e2_604.pdf Sinotrans (0598.HK, Buy) – Another positive catalyst in sight; reiterating Buy (Sky Hong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/590-DBD1/64839199/9b9986fb-533c-4823-8bac-08535360d166_604.pdf Weekly transaction data tracking – Slight improvement seen in weekly sales vs. 2017 average (Jeffrey Gao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/769-13CE/63394227/0900b8c08e0c3071.pdf

JAPAN Bank Sector – Key points in 3Q: US DTA adjustments, share buybacks (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/256-8B64/62486472/0900b8c08e1d3a73.pdf Consumer Electronics Industry – Foreign visitors to Japan: stable inbound demand for cons. electronics (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/259-6FAC/64318173/0900b8c08e1deb67.pdf Insurance/Securities/Non-banks sector – Impact of TCJA on Japanese financial institutions (update) (Masao Muraki) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/229-DEDC/63093252/0900b8c08e1d46eb.pdf Japan & Korea Autos – China shipments: J3 gain share in 2017; expect greater stability in 2018 (Kurt Sanger) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/680-CDC3/62713324/0900b8c08e1d3400.pdf Real estate sector – Falling demand now called 'labor shortage' (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/237-B6C3/62838798/0900b8c08e1d2356.pdf Retail Sector – Japan Foreign Visitors Monthly: December 2017 (Akane Wang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/827-4993/64554254/0900b8c08e1de239.pdf Seven & i Holdings (3382.T, Hold) – December monthly sales trends (Takahiro Kazahaya) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/202-D21E/63139386/0900b8c08e1d602f.pdf United Urban Investment (8960.T, Hold) – FP11/17 results: DPU likely remains around at ¥3,400 (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/234-C297/63130245/0900b8c08e1c2da9.pdf

AUSTRALIA Alacer Gold (AQG.AX, Buy) – Good finish to the year, as sulphides creep closer (Matthew Frydman) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/854-BD21/63055880/0900b8c08dff9b3f.pdf Australian Staples – DB Supermarket Inflation Index - 2Q18 (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/561-7236/62596402/8c57c97e-443e-4798-8e89-5ac17bd65d38_604.pdf Gaming – Queensland EGM revenue up 5.3% in December (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/206-064B/62720264/0900b8c08e1d7241.pdf Myer (MYR.AX, Hold) – David Jones trading update (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/225-6B34/63396663/5ac091ad-7b5b-4ec0-b8bf-1c79c3a3ad83_604.pdf Retail – NZ cards data for December (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/571-0722/62025544/13a7de3e-f9ae-11e7-8a78-f8f3716073c2_604.pdf Rio Tinto (RIO.AX, Buy) – 4Q17: Pilbara hits 330Mt, higher grades boost copper output (Paul Young) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/916-8E05/62594612/0900b8c08dfe9590.pdf

KOREA/TAIWAN Bizlink (3665.TW, Buy) – SZ site visit:Enhanced operating efficiency in EV/semi cable (Frank Lin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/564-83B7/62880613/0900b8c08e1aeb95.pdf Powertech (6239.TW, Hold) – iPhone demand is the key swing factor (Michael Chou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/582-E7BF/63317077/0900b8c08e1db62b.pdf SK Telecom (017670.KS, Buy) – News on potential acquisition of Toptec, a factory automation business (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/818-9AAA/63238026/0900b8c08e1d5201.pdf

INDIA India Life Insurance – Strong trend sustains in Dec'17 despite high base (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/537-940B/62110017/fd86589a-f9b4-11e7-8a78-f8f3716073c2_604.pdf

17 January 2018



ASEAN Singapore Property – What can surprise - 4Q results preview (Joy Wang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/860-F9CE/62494929/c03feed0-c489-426e-ac18-70f66e6b47bd_604.pdf Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES.JK, Buy) – Introducing 2019F numbers (Hadi Soegiarto) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/624-F1EB/64498105/0900b8c08e18abf0.pdf Alfamart (AMRT.JK, Buy) – Introducing 2019F numbers (Hadi Soegiarto) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/622-43B8/64219856/0900b8c08e18a81a.pdf Indo Belanja – Evolution, accelerated (Hadi Soegiarto) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/627-D03D/64476365/0900b8c08e1c3e54.pdf Pruksa Holding PCL (PSH.BK, Buy) – Key takeaways from analyst meeting (Nash Shivaruchiwong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/552-366A/65021743/0900b8c08e1deca1.pdf APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess India Macro and Corporate Day 5-8 Feb @New Delhi, India 9th Annual dbAccess Asia Conference 14-18 May @Marina Bay Sands, Singapore

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EPS changes

NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

APAC

Topchoice Medical China 0.5 0.7 +41.3 0.6 0.6 +7.3 0.7 0.7 +0.1 Hold Hold 27.2 31.0 +14.0

Airtac International Taiwan 17.0 17.2 +1.4 23.2 23.6 +1.6 30.2 30.3 +0.4 Buy Buy 465.0 520.0 +11.8

Reliance Industries India 53.6 53.8 +0.4 94.5 -43.1 63.8 66.4 +4.1 109.1 -39.2 67.1 70.6 +5.2 112.6 -37.3 Buy Buy 1,040.0 1,150.0 +10.6

Powertech Taiwan 7.9 7.8 -1.2 5.7 35.9 8.1 8.0 -0.4 8.9 8.4 -5.4 Hold Hold 93.0 93.0

UPL India 44.3 42.2 -4.7 43.2 -2.3 53.8 51.6 -4.3 62.2 60.2 -3.3 Buy Buy 975.0 960.0 -1.5

Alfamart Indonesia 19.7 17.1 -13.4 25.4 -32.6 26.0 22.7 -12.8 22.9 Buy Buy 765.0 765.0

Ace Hardware Indonesia Indonesia 56.2 Buy Buy 1,490.0 1,490.0

Aier Eye Hospital China Buy Buy 35.2 38.1 +8.2

CSPC Pharma China Buy Buy 19.1 20.3 +6.3

Source: Bloomberg Finance`

16 January 2018

Retail

Lenta

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 15 Jan 2018 (USD) 6.34

Price Target (USD) 7.60

52-week range (USD) 8.11 - 5.31

RecommendationChange

Emerging EuropeRussia

Company

Lenta

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker

LNTAq.L LNTA LI LSE LNTAq

Date16 January 2018

Upgrading to Buy

Upgrading from Hold to Buy; raising target price to USD 7.6 from USD 6.8We are upgrading Lenta to Buy from Hold and increasing the target price toUSD 7.6 from USD 6.8. Operational improvement, falling interest costs (on fallingrates in Russia) and declining capital intensity are three major positives in theinvestment case. We trimmed our 2017E EPS by 3%, but increased 2018-19E by7% and 13%. We expect the reduction in the rollout of capital-intensive hypersto be accretive for Lenta's return measures, as well as improving cash flow (FCFshould almost break even in 2018E). Lenta is trading at our 2018E-19E P/E ratios of10.4x and 8.2x vs. 3-year EPS CAGR of 24%. We see reasons for Lenta's discountvs. X5 and Magnit (store format, stock liquidity, shareholder structure) but atthis stage, view Lenta's discount as excessive (ca. 25% based on P/E) and thecompany's multiples vs. its earnings growth rate as attractive.

Operational improvement should continueLenta showed the first signs of operational improvement in 3Q 2017 and weexpect 4Q to have continued the turnaround. While we expect 2H 2017 to havebeen still difficult for margins, due to the competitive environment, going into2018 we see several positive developments: 1) better quality of openings (M&Aof Kesko in 2016 drove cannibalization in 2017; Lenta's new openings from 2017,especially hypers leased from NASH, should have performed better), 2) lowershare of space in the ramp-up phase (share of stores aged up to three years shouldhave declined from 50% as of the end of 2017 to 45% and 36% as of the endof 2018-19E).

Beneficiary of falling interest rates in RussiaInterest costs consume almost 30% of Lenta's EBITDA (2017E) and we expect adecline by ca. 20% in two years on the back of falling rates. The key policy ratein Russia was reduced by 225bps in 2017 while DB economists expect another125bps cut by the end of 2018. The benefits of that should feed through Lenta'sP&L in 2018-19E.

Declining capital intensityLenta has the lowest return among Russian grocers, as its business modelrequired significant capex on property. As growth options in the hyper formatunarguably diminish, we think that capex should continue declining. We expectLenta's FCF to be close to break even in 2018E and positive in 2019E. We believethe company will increasingly focus on the capital-light supermarket format whilein hypers it should continue to look for lease-based NASH-type M&As. We believethis strategy to be returns-accretive. If interest rates decline beyond our end-2018

Tomasz Krukowski, CFA

Research Analyst

+44-20-7541-2197

Key changes

TP 6.80 to 7.60 ↑ 11.8%

Rating Hold to Buy ↑Source: Deutsche Bank

Price/price relative

Lenta Russian RTS Index (Rebased)

2016 2017 2018

5

10

0

15

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute 8.2 5.3 -22.0

Russian RTS Index 10.1 9.3 9.2Source: Deutsche Bank

17 January 2018 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook


Rating

Buy Middle East

UAE

Banking

Company

Emirates NBD Alert Date

16 January 2018

Results

Q4-17 first take: EPS 5% above, BS in-line, dividends below

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker ENBD.DU EMIRATES DB DBX ENBD

Price at 15 Jan 2018 (AED) 8.30

Price Target (AED) 12.75

52-week range (AED) 8.94 - 7.97

Ryan Ayache

Research Analyst

(+971) 4 428-3261

[email protected]

Key data

FYE 12/31 2017A 2018E 2019E

Revenue (AED) 15,439 16,587 18,071

PBT (AED) 8,366 8,379 9,340

Stated Net Profit (AED)

8,345 8,282 9,233

EPS Adjusted (AED)

1.40 1.39 1.55

Dividend Yield (%)

4.8 6.3 7.2

P/E Adjusted (x) 6.08 5.99 5.35


ENBD Q4-17 results

AEDm Q4 17E Q4 17A YoY QoQ vs . DBe

Net interest income 2,912 2,795 14% 0% -4%

Total revenues 4,024 4,036 20% 2% 0%

Operating costs 1,343 1,322 11% 4% -2%

Gross operating profit 2,682 2,714 25% 1% 1%

Impairment charge 612 537 27% 24% -12%

Net income 2,067 2,176 17% -4% 5%

Loans 308,353 304,093 5% 0% -1%

Total assets 465,924 470,372 5% 2% 1%

Deposits 329,398 326,528 5% 1% -1%

Equity 49,744 49,876 12% 4% 0%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data

Maintain Buy

ENBD is structurally profitable has sound

fundamentals and is available at discounted

valuations. ENBD trades at 6.0x 2018E PE and 0.9x

P/ TB, a discount to UAE banks (8.9x, 1.2x) and

MENA Banks (9.8x, 1.3x).

Q4-17 net income AED2,176m, small beat to DBe (5%), in-line with consensus Q4 / FY ROTE of 18.7% is great, but given high capital ratios (T1 19.7%), the flat 0.4 DPS is not quite the cookie we were hoping for (payout ratio down to 29% from 33% in FY16). Other key points to note: revenues in line but on weaker NII (lower NIMs) and stronger NIR. Opex and cost of risk were slightly better, driving the small beat. Results look decent enough; we take comfort in the yearly revenue growth figure (+20%). Maintain Buy.

Key P&L highlights in Q4-17: NII grew 14% YoY (flat QoQ, 4% below DBe) as NIMs declined 5bps QoQ

(although up 20bps YoY). FY17 NIMs were broadly flat YoY.

Strong NIR was helped by fees (+7% QoQ, although FY17 is still quite softat just +3% YoY) and FX income (+172% YoY in Q4, 27% YoY in FY17).

Operating costs increased 11% YoY (4% QoQ) on the back of highermarketing expenses and digital investments. Despite this, FY17 costsdeclined 1% YoY and cost/ income ratio was 31.4% vs. 33% guidance.

Q4 CoR was 63bps of gross loans (DBe 66bps). FY17 CoR was 65bps,down 14bps YoY, helping to drive net income growth (15% in FY17).

Key Balance sheet highlights: Net loans grew 5% YoY (flat QoQ). Corporate lending grew 7% YoY,

consumer lending 3%, while Islamic declined 3%. Loans to the Dubaisovereign and related entities grew 6% YoY (constitutes 42% of loan book).

Deposits grew 5% YoY (+1% QoQ). CASA deposits declined 3% QoQ andtime deposits grew 7% QoQ, given higher competition for liquidity. Despitethis, CASA represents 55% of total deposits, well above the Top 4 banks.Headline LDR was 93%.

NPLs/ gross loans improved 27bps YoY (up 5bps QoQ however) to 6.2%with 125% coverage. General provisions stood at 3.20% of credit RWAs.

Capital ratios look mighty: CET1 16.4%, T1 19.7%, CAR 22.0% (Basel III).

Results conference call at 2.00pm UAE time today.



Rating

Hold Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

Life Insurance

Company

MMI Alert Date

16 January 2018

Breaking News

New unknown CEO; no change in strategy

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker MMIJ.J MMI SJ JNB MMIJ

ADR Ticker ISIN MPOHY US55314H1077

Price at 15 Jan 2018 (ZAR) 20.20

Price Target (ZAR) 20.00

52-week range (ZAR) 26.27 - 17.23

Larissa Van-Deventer

Research Analyst

(+27) 11 775-7049

[email protected]

Stock data

Market cap (ZAR)(m) 32,400.8

Shares outstanding (m) 1,604

Free float (%) 75

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 60,241.0


Key data

FYE 6/30 2017A 2018E 2019E

Stated PBT(ZARm)

3,208 3,436 3,761

DB PBT (ZARm) 3,208 3,436 3,761

DB EPS (ZAR) 2.00 2.14 2.34

DPS (ZAR) 1.57 1.62 1.67

P/E (DB EPS)(x) 10.1 9.4 8.6


MMI announced this morning that CEO Nicolaas Kruger is stepping down on 15 February. He will be replaced by Hillie Meyer, who was CEO of Momentum from 1996 to 2005 while the unit was still owned by FirstRand. Allan Gray executive Jeanette Marais has been appointed deputy-CEO alongside Mary Vilakazi. Although the departure of Mr. Kruger does not come as a surprise, we do not believe that the appointment of a CEO that has not interacted with the market in over a decade is sufficient to reinstate confidence in MMI’s ability to turn around its operations near-term (the group has traded at a P/EV discount of c.20% since 2016). We also find management’s statement that there will be no change in strategy unfortunate, as management’s focus on its African Bank and Indian ventures have long, and by implication uncertain, payback periods. We reiterate our Hold rating.

New CEO has an affluent insurance background, but not active for 12 years Mr. Meyer is currently the managing partner of private equity firm Nodus Investment Managers, and has served on the boards of Alexander Forbes and General Reinsurance Africa. Ms. Marais joins as co-deputy CEO from 1 March. Ms. Marais was an executive director at investment manager Allan Gray, and will be responsible for Momentum Investments, marketing and distribution. Ms. Vilakazi will be responsible for the retail operations (Momentum and Metropolitan). Recently appointed CFO Risto Ketola gained a board seat as FD. Other (largely loss-making) non-core operations such as Africa, short-term insurance and health will ultimately be the responsibility of the FD and CEO.

No change in strategy; growth focused on the African Bank and India ventures Management’s announcement states that MMI will continue its current strategy of focusing on core businesses. The group has scaled down smaller operations in Africa, but the larger key Kenyan, Lesotho and Namibian operations remain in place, as do loss-making South African operations such as Momentum Short-Term Insurance (MSTI) and Momentum Health. Management specifically stated that they are focusing on a narrower set of new initiatives such as the African Bank JV and the Aditya Birla JV. We find the focus on these operations unfortunate: (1) We don’t consider MMI’s capital investment and potential returns from the African Bank JV to be sufficient for the risk in that venture (refer “African (Bank) adventure” dated 22 June 2017), and (2) By management’s own admission they only expect the Indian venture to break-even in seven years’ time (refer “FY17 result - Time Will Tell” dated 7 September 2017), which adds investment uncertainty to that part of MMI’s investment case, in our view. MMI‘s African expansion initiative, Ayo, remained loss-making in FY17.



16 January 2018

Beverages

Concha y Toro

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

BeveragesPrice at 12 Jan 2018 (USD) 40.85

Target price 48.00

52-week range 40.85 - 30.94

Forecast ChangeLatin AmericaChile

Company

Concha y Toro


VCO.N VCO US NYS VCO

Date16 January 2018

Recent strength justified by improvingharvest/SG&A outlook (maintain Buy)Potential for 20% rebound in Chile wine production should offset strong CLPVCO has risen 17% over the past month (versus +14% for the Chilean IPSAindex) on the back of an improving outlook for the upcoming harvest (March) andthe gradual acceptance by investors of management's aggressive cost reductiontargets (that aim to double operating income by 2022). Despite a partial negativeoffset from the stronger Chilean peso, we believe that the recent re-rating (to 11xEV/EBITDA and 18x PE, both on 2018E) is justified and sustainable. As a result ofthis and a stronger USD earnings outlook for 2019, we are raising our target to$48/ADS (or P1,488 per local share); and because this represents a potential 12-month total return of almost 20%, we maintain our Buy rating.

Model review reflects stronger CLP, but higher conviction on cost reductionWe have updated our model ahead of 4Q17 results (previewed herein) to reflect3Q17 and updated FX/macro assumptions, but more importantly to reflect theimproving outlook for raw materials in 2018 (from a potentially stronger thanexpected harvest) and additional color provided by management's Decemberpresentation (detailing the new commercial strategy and specific cost reductiontargets). We had already reflected the 2018 cost reduction goals into our model(in a note dated 20 August 2017), but had held back regarding 2019 profitability.In this report we are reflecting a more realistic view of 2019 in light of publishedmargin goals and the improved outlook for raw material costs.

Price target revised up 26.0%; implied total return of 19% still compellingOur price target is revised up to $48/ADS (from $38), but its implied total returnof 19% (driven mostly by EBITDA growth, as we only assume a mild re-ratingfrom here) is still compelling in our view. It is worth highlighting that the stock'sliquidity has increased to $1.2 million/day (from $1.0mm/day) in recent months,so we kept the discount on our target multiple unchanged (at 20%). In the eventliquidity recovers significantly (which could well be the case if management'sguidance materializes), there would be scope for a higher target multiple and fora potential re-rating in the stock (beyond what we currently assume).

Valuation still below our revised target multiple; risksAt ~11x 12-month forward EBITDA, VCO is trading slightly below our revisedtarget multiple (11.6x, applied to our estimated EBITDA for the 12-month periodbeginning a year from now to derive our target). Downside risks relate to globalmacro weakness/ FX fluctuations, but other risks include reliance on third partysuppliers and potential exposure to agricultural and weather-related disruptions.

Jose Yordan

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5528

Yusuf Jamal, CFA

Research Associate

Key changes

TP 38.00 to 48.00 ↑ 26.3%

EPS (CLP) 59.40 to 56.54 ↓ -4.8%

Revenue(CLPm)

678,475 to636,275

↓ -6.2%



Concha y Toro Chile Stock Mkt Select (Rebased)

Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '1820

40

60


Absolute 16.9 10.9 17.9

Chile Stock Mkt Select 13.8 5.5 35.4Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 7.8

ROA (%) 4.0

Net debt/equity (%) 40.0

Book value/share (CLP) 750.91

Price/book (x) 1.7

Net interest cover (x) 6.0

EBIT margin (%) 8.8Source: Deutsche Bank



16 January 2018

Retail

Carrefour Brasil

Rating

Buy

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 15 Jan 2018 (BRL) 14.53

Target price 20.50

52-week range 16.97 - 14.20

Company UpdateLatin AmericaBrazil

Company

Carrefour Brasil


CRFB3.SA CRFB3 BS SAO CRFB3

Date16 January 2018

4Q17 sales

Gradually accelerating sales speed, but slighty below DBe4Q17 consolidated gross sales of R$13.6bn (+5% y/y) came in just below DBe,mainly due to further pressure from food deflation in 4Q17 (down 5.1% vs. -4.5%in 3Q17 and +11.9% in 4Q16). However, Carrefour Brasil was able to accelerategross SSS to +1.4% y/y from +1.1% in Q3. We were expecting SSS to be up 3.0%y/y. Nonetheless, the short-term sales miss does not change our constructiveapproach to the stock, as Carrefour Brasil remains highly exposed to the rapidlygrowing and most profitable channel (C&C) in the Brazilian market.

Atacadao (C&C): Slightly better sales performance due to Black FridayGross sales were up 7% y/y, in line with our estimates. Atacadao was able toaccelerate SSS to 2.2% y/y from 1.2% y/y in Q3, essentially in line with our+2.0% expectation. Despite the 5% yearly downward pressure in food prices,accelerated sales during the Black Friday (+76% y/y) contributed to strongersales performance. Atacadao opened three stores in Q4, in-line with our forecast,growing selling space by 8% y/y. The more promotional stance associated withBlack Friday' sales will probably weigh on margins in Q4 results (released onFebruary 27th).

Carrefour Retail: lukewarm sales growth despite market share gainsGross sales were up 2% y/y, 3% below DBe. Lower food prices took a toll on thesales speed. Even though non-food sales were up 50% during the Black Fridayand e-commerce sales were up 150% y/y in the quarter (proximity stores + e-commerce now account for 8% of retail sales), SSS was fairly flat, deceleratingfrom +0.9% y/y in Q3, well below DBe of +3.0% due to further decline in averagefood prices.

Banco CSF: Atacadao card ramps upBillings for the Carrefour credit card increased 10% to R$5.0bn, 11% above DBe,while billings for the Atacadao card (launched in October) hit R$1.0bn, 23% belowDBe but still more than double the billings in Q3. CSF total credit portfolio grew16%, just above DBe of R$6.2bn, mainly due to the rapid growth of the Atacadaocard. Finally, Banco CSF reached 7 million cards issued, of which 840,000 are thenew Atacadao card, in-line with our estimates.

Carrefour remains attractive, but CBD still our top pickCBD grew gross sales by 7.0% y/y and Carrefour Brasil by 5.3% y/y in Q4. Eventhough food prices have come further down in Q4, which tends to be morenegative for Carrefour Brasil than CBD, the gross sales growth gap narrowed

Marcel Moraes

Research Analyst

+1-904-271-2470

Kaila Lopez

Research Associate

+1-904-645-1197


Carrefour Brasil BOVESPA (Rebased)

Sep '17 Nov '17 Jan '18

20

12.5

15

17.5


Absolute -5.3 -9.8 –

BOVESPA 9.8 3.6 25.3Source: Deutsche Bank



16 January 2018

EM Daily

AsiaEmerging EuropeGlobalLatin America

Emerging Markets

EM DailyDate16 January 2018

Ukraine: Struggle is still on

Key recent developmentsBRL: FGV Infltion IGP-10 (Jan'18, MoM). Above expectations at 0.79%.

Figure 1: FX Best/Worst Performers

1.35%

1.07%

1.02%

0.99%

-0.63%

-0.94%

-1.07%

-1.26%

ZAR

MXN

HRK

CZK

INR

ILS

ARS

TRY

Daily Return (%)Daily Return (%)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 2: CDS Best/WorstPerformers

-1.72%

-1.69%

-1.06%

-0.99%

0.11%

0.14%

0.16%

0.17%

TR

ZA

BG

RU

CZ

SK

PL

HR

Daily Return (%)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Ukraine in pictures: Struggle is still onIn our latest EMEA Snap, we delineate the current macro conditions in Ukraine.After two years of prolonged struggle Ukraine is back on the path of economicrecovery. Growth continued to remain strong in Q3 2017 with a reading of 2.1%YoY, but lower than initial estimates by NBU. Retail trade has jumped this year,the labor market remained tight. Consumer confidence (GfK Ukraine) declinedslightly from its October peak, but at 62.3 is the second-highest reading since July2014. Average industrial production growth of 0.1% YoY in Q2 2017 further fellin Q3 2017 mainly due to a trade ban imposed by authorities with uncontrolledareas of Donbas. Banks’ credit growth to both households and nonfinancialcorporates remains weak. Headline inflation slowed down in December afterreaching a high of 16.4% YoY in September but still remains above the target. NBUfurther tightened the policy by raising the key policy rate by 100 bps. Finally, thegovernment approved some reforms in accordance with IMF program but thereis a long journey ahead to secure the next tranche. While Ukraine had previouslybeen "dragging its feet" with regard to meeting the conditions set by the IMF forthe next review, two recent developments have directly contradicted necessaryconditions set by the IMF before the next review can begin. A timely start of thenext IMF review is therefore less probable (thus pushing any distribution of a 5thtranche of IMF funds far into the future).

DB China conference: macro highlightsThe 16th dbAccess China Conference was held on 8-12 January 2018 in Beijing,China. 27 speakers presented their views on China's economy from differentaspects. These are the key takeaways: China's economic growth will slow downin 2018 as policymakers' focus shifts to growth quality; GDP will likely be revisedup in 2019 as a result of the economic census (this could provide room for lowergrowth in the next few years while maintaining the goal to double GDP by 2020);Monetary policy will remain tight; Fiscal policy will tighten. Local governmentswill face tight constraints on its financing platforms and PPP projects; Inflationwill become more of a concern; Real estate market will cool down; Innovation hasgreat potential, where China is already at the forefront in some areas, includingFinTech and green technology. Pearl River Delta will act as a hub for innovation;and finally supply-side reform will continue its momentum in 2018, while SOEreform may gradually gain speed.

Brazil: the economy is firming up

Drausio Giacomelli

Strategist

+1-212-250-7355

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

+1-212-250-2524

Jed Evans

Strategist

+1-212-250-8605



16 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Periodical

Europe Strategy

Weekly Fund FlowsDate16 January 2018

Synchronized inflows

Last week’s (Wed-Wed) review of funds’ in/outflows as % of funds’ AuM.

In a repeat of the previous week, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to a fresh 10-month high did nothing to stop fund investors from substantial investments, astotal bond funds saw their highest weekly gains in seven months, with inflowsinto US bond mandates the main driver for a second consecutive week. Whilea number of different explanations have been put forward for the sharp rise inyields since the start of the year (BoJ QE tweak, China slowing its purchases of UStreasuries, hawkish ECB minutes) we note that bond yields continued to move inline with the trajectory suggested by growth momentum (see here). But investorswere equally upbeat on the equity front, helping total equity funds to six-monthhigh weekly gains (which was a sharp bounce from strong outflows the weekprior). Buoyant investor sentiment saw our 'money at work' (see Fig. 4) rising to a12-month high. Still, the allocation gap between bonds and equities continues toclimb in favour of bonds (see Fig. 1) and we believe that moves in the US 10-yearbond yield are explained first and foremost by global PMI momentum, which, ifturning negative over the coming months as expected, should weigh on US bondyields, making us favour bond funds over equity funds until the second quarter.Higher bond yields paired with some last positive impact from the US tax reformhave propelled earnings expectations higher for US equities overall, and by sector,has led tech, industrials and financial funds to continue gaining, while rising oilprices supported hefty inflows into energy sector funds.

Figure 1: Our US yield projection points to a trendreversal in DM bond vs. equity flows only from early Q2

Figure 2: Financial fund inflows should only continue ifyields keep rising (which we don't expect)

-250

-150

-50

50

150

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

DM bond minus equity flows, in USDbn

US 10-year bond yield, in bps, inv., rhs

PMI implied US 10-year bond yield forecast

year-on-year change

In f

av

ou

r o

f b

on

ds

In f

av

ou

r o

fe

qu

itie

s

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3m change in US 10-year bond yields, bps

3m flows into global financial sector funds, as % of NAV, rhs

Source:EPFR Global, Datastream, Deutsche Bank calculations Source:EPFR Global, Deutsche Bank calculations

Andreas Bruckner

Strategist

+44-20-754-18171

Sebastian Raedler, Ph.D.

Strategist

+44-20-754-18169

Wolf von Rotberg

Strategist

+44-20-754-52801

Tom Pearce, CFA

Strategist

+44-20-754-16568



16 January 2018

Brazil Update

Latin AmericaBrazil

Economics

Brazil UpdateDate16 January 2018

The economy is firming up

Highlights:■ The IBC-Br rose 0.49% MoM in November

■ The acceleration in inflation in January is mainly transitory

■ There were few changes in the Focus survey last week

Jose Carlos Faria

Chief Economist

+55-11-2113-5185



Emerging Markets

Special Report Economics Foreign Exchange FX Spot

Date 12 January 2018

A quant-macro approach to EM FX Strategy: Menu of tools

Gautam Kalani, Ph.D.

Strategist

(+44) 20 754-57066

[email protected]

Over time, we have developed a suite of quantitative and macro tools to assess EM currencies from a strategy perspective. In this report we summarize these tools (and comment on the latest results), providing links to more detailed notes where appropriate. Our aim is to provide information on the consistent frameworks we use to assess the different dimensions of EM FX, with a particular focus on our suite of FX valuation metrics.

Our suite of FX valuation metrics

We have developed a range of medium/long-term and short-term FX valuation models. For medium- and long-term time horizons, there are three classes of fundamental models:

1) Models based on trade flows – PPP, DBeer, FEER

2) A new model based on capital flows – Cap-PPP

3) A combined weighted version of the capital and trade based models

To complement the above-mentioned fundamental metrics, we have two shorter-term valuation metrics:

1) A ‘financial fair value’ model that captures EM FX misalignments vs. rapidlychanging financial variables.

2) PCA valuation metric: Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), weestimate how misaligned EM currencies are to the main financial variables that capture global market dynamics at that point in time.

Other quantitative and macro tools to analyze EM FX from a strategy perspective:

1) EM Flow Indicator: a tool to track flows into emerging markets thatcombines normalized weekly flow data from two sources – IIF and EPFR – and incorporates both local currency debt and equity flows.

2) EM Risk Monitor: a multi-dimensional measure of risk sentiment acrossEMs, which provides an indication of whether the current environment is risk on, risk off or risk neutral.

3) EM FX Scorecard: provides a rules-based overlay to our various technical,macro and quantitative tools, producing a consistent ranking of EM currencies from most to least attractive.

4) Drivers of EM FX: using PCA, regression and beta analyses we aim toanswer the following three questions – What factors are driving global market dynamics? Is EM FX fairly valued on PCA metrics, and are there any currencies that are significantly misaligned? What is driving EM FX as an asset class?

5) EM FX defenses: we rank EM currencies on ‘defensive’ metrics,encapsulating real rates, external balances and FX reserves. These variables take on particular importance during periods of stress, and hence this ranking provides guidance on which currencies will under- and outperform if external financing conditions deteriorate.



16 January 2018

China Macro

AsiaChina

Economics

China MacroDate16 January 2018

DB China conference: macro highlights

The 16th dbAccess China Conference was held on 8-12 January 2018 in Beijing,China. 27 speakers presented their views on China's economy from differentaspects. Guest speakers included Shuli Hu (Caixin Media Founder and Editorin Chief), Jun Ma (Tsinghua University, Former Chief Economist at the PBOCResearch Bureau), Vijay Vaitheeswaran (US Business Editor and former ChinaBusiness Editor of the Economist), Xianchun Xu (Tsinghua University, formerDeputy Head at the National Bureau Statistics of China), and leading experts fromthe policy circle, academia, industry, and the financial sector.

Key takeaways:

■ China's economic growth will slow down in 2018 as policymakers focusshift to growth quality.

■ GDP will likely be revised up in 2019 as a result of the economic census.This could provide room for lower growth in the next few years whilemaintaining the goal to double GDP by 2020.

■ Monetary policy will remain tight. PBoC's OMO rates will be higher in2018. There is some chance that the benchmark rates may be hiked too.

■ Fiscal policy will tighten. Local governments will face tight constraints onits financing platforms and PPP projects.

■ Inflation will become more of a concern. In a live survey, more than 1/3of the participants think that CPI will reach >3% in 2018. Price reform inpublic utilities and services may add to inflation pressures.

■ Real estate market will cool down. Smaller real estate developers will facetight financing pressures.

■ Innovation has great potential, where China is already at the forefront insome areas, including FinTech and green technology. Pearl River Deltawill act as a hub for innovation.

■ Supply-side reform will continue its momentum in 2018, while SOEreform may gradually gain speed.

Zhiwei Zhang, Ph.D.

Chief Economist

+852-2203 8308

Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

Economist

+852-2203 6139



17 January 2018



Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Wednesday, 17 January

BR 04:00 FIPE CPI weekly (Jan)

ZA 11:00 Retail sales (Nov) -3.20%

PL 13:00 Avg. gross wages (Dec), nsa -6.50%

RU 13:00 Merchandise trade balance (Nov), USD, bn USD9.8bn

RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Jan) 0.20%

US 14:15 Capacity Utilization (Dec) 77.3%rate 77.1%rate

US 14:15 IP (Dec) 0.40% 0.2% (3.4%)

US 15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan), Index 72 74

US 21:00 Net Foreign Sec Purchase (Nov), USD, bn, chg USD23.2bn

Thursday, 18 January

IL 07:00 12M fwd avg CPI forecasts (Jan) -0.70%

TR 11:00 MPC meeting (Jan) 8.00%rate 8.00%rate 8.00%rate

CO 12:00 Industrial production (Nov) (-0.9%) (-0.3%)

CO 12:00* Overnight lending rate (Jan) 4.75%rate

CO 12:00 Retail sales (Nov) (-1.20%) (-0.60%)

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Jan), USD, bn USD432.6bn

TR 13:00 CBT FX reserves (Jan), USD, bn USD87.5bn

ZA 13:00* SARB rate decision (Jan) 6.75%rate 6.75%rate

US 13:30 Building Permits (Dec), k 1,290.0k 1,298.0k

US 13:30 Housing Starts (Dec), k 1,275.0k 1,297.0k

US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Jan), k 1,867.0k

US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Jan), k 250.0k 261.0k

US 13:30 Philly Fed (Jan), Index 25 26.2

Friday, 19 January

HU 08:00 Avg. gross wages (Nov), nsa -12.80%

RU 08:00 Money supply (Jan), RUB, tr, chg RUB9.9tr

PL 09:00 Retail sales (Dec) -10.20%

RU 12:00* State budget balance(YtD) (Dec), RUB, bn* -RUB532.4bn

PL 13:00 Industrial production (Dec), nsa -9.10%

PL 13:00 PPI (Dec) -1.80%

US 15:00 Consumer Sentiment prelim (Jan), Index 95.9

Monday, 22 January

IL 11:00 SoE Index (Dec) 0.30%

MX 11:00 Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.4%rate

CO 12:00 Trade Balance (Nov), USD, m -USD627.8m

CO 16:00 Economic Activity Index (Nov), sa -1.40% Source: Deutsche Bank

17 January 2018



Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)

16-Jan-18 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 63,523.23 na 0.8 0.7 7.0 4.3 31.3 34.2 34.0

EMEA MSCI EMEA 564.23 na 1.2 0.9 6.4 3.2 17.7 21.8 14.9

LatAm MSCI LatAm 88,569.34 na 0.3 0.7 7.8 3.3 36.7 15.9 27.7

Asia MSCI Asia 966.61 na 0.8 0.7 7.0 4.8 33.7 44.3 45.2

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 1,114.92 21 0.9 4.2 10.6 6.2 36.5 -0.6 -38.7

Greece ASE 852.81 86 0.4 4.0 15.8 8.4 14.2 -17.5 -84.2

Hungary BSE 39,684.16 36 0.1 2.5 8.9 3.5 175.1 82.5 15.5

Israel TA-25 1,544.45 315 -0.7 1.5 8.3 3.8 21.4 38.9 46.9

Poland WIG 66,437.64 394 1.2 4.8 11.6 6.6 44.5 27.3 3.8

Russia RTS$ 1,261.09 607 -0.3 2.6 9.8 9.2 63.8 -19.9 -43.3

Turkey ISE 100 114,418.36 2202 2.0 -1.1 6.4 -0.8 -19.9 -36.8 -27.7

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,321.40 1 -0.2 0.5 4.4 -0.8 -7.5 22.8 -53.0

Egypt CASE 15,089.37 37 -0.3 -0.6 3.3 0.9 -36.2 -1.8 -57.7

Jordan ASEGI 2,142.60 5 0.5 1.0 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 5.7 -46.5

Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,624.53 49 0.3 2.0 5.1 3.8 -1.8 1.2 -55.2

Oman MSM30 5,039.86 4 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -1.2 -22.7 -13.2 -47.8

Qatar DSM20 9,178.18 54 2.6 2.0 11.8 7.7 -22.6 7.0 -13.4

Saudi Arabia TASI 7,531.56 969 0.6 3.3 6.4 4.2 -10.9 7.0 -33.6

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,615.41 50 0.3 0.5 6.4 4.9 3.0 66.6 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,525.59 100 0.9 0.6 5.1 4.6 -8.2 102.5 -42.6

South Africa JSE All Share 60,649.60 1596 1.3 1.5 12.8 2.9 17.9 9.2 27.8

ASIA

China HSCCI 4,678.34 963 1.8 1.6 10.2 5.6 3.1 -0.7 -12.6

China A-Shares SHASHR 3,599.34 41282 0.7 2.0 7.9 4.9 -2.0 43.7 -27.1

India BSE 30 34,771.05 440 -1.1 0.4 3.9 1.8 19.5 49.8 7.4

Indonesia JSE CI 6,429.69 488 0.6 3.5 9.5 3.2 32.3 34.3 107.3

Korea KOSPI 2,521.74 6384 0.7 0.9 4.1 2.7 35.4 27.1 31.3

Malaysia KLCI 1,826.03 285 0.0 1.3 7.4 3.9 -5.8 -17.2 3.8

Pakistan KSE 30,847.34 65 0.9 -0.7 6.9 3.3 14.6 137.5 77.1

Philippines MSE CI 8,865.13 103 -0.2 -1.0 6.2 2.3 4.7 18.2 113.6

Taiwan TWSE 10,986.11 4148 0.2 0.6 6.3 3.8 28.3 40.0 46.6

Thailand SET 1,821.83 2094 -0.1 2.5 7.9 5.9 22.3 20.2 144.2

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 33,521.63 54 -1.1 4.4 15.0 9.9 76.2 180.1 170.2

Brazil BOVESPA 79,831.76 2118 -0.2 2.0 12.4 7.3 32.4 -18.2 NA

Chile IPSA 5,745.95 90 -0.7 0.7 15.0 4.6 59.3 0.3 68.6

Colombia IGBC 11,789.30 55 1.2 0.8 12.0 7.1 -7.2 -50.5 -16.0

Mexico IPC 49,491.72 357 0.3 2.3 4.6 4.8 -7.5 -25.9 5.3

Peru IBVL 20,838.56 13 0.3 1.7 15.1 5.2 44.3 -24.3 29.0

Venezuela BVC 2,324.29 100 17.0 78.6 77.4 84.0 37187.8 209429.6 1350485.2 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

17 January 2018



Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 16-Jan-18 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M

EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 20.8 0.1 -2.5 -4.4 -2.2 -14.0 9.1 20.4 19.9 19.2

Hungary HUF 252.4 0.3 -2.3 -4.9 -2.5 -9.0 15.6 255.6 250.8 246.2

Israel ILS 3.4 1.0 0.2 -2.1 -1.5 -12.5 -7.7 3.5 3.5 3.4

Poland PLN 3.4 0.2 -2.2 -4.3 -2.0 -8.7 11.2 3.3 3.2 3.1

Russia RUB 56.4 -0.1 -1.0 -3.8 -2.2 -13.1 86.6 57.1 56.9 56.6

Turkey TRY 3.8 0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.2 63.3 116.6 4.2 4.2 4.5

South Africa ZAR 12.3 -0.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 6.2 39.3 14.0 13.8 12.9

ASIA

China CNY 6.4 -0.1 -1.4 -2.7 -1.2 4.0 3.5 6.7 6.7 6.8

India INR 64.0 0.9 0.7 -0.3 0.6 3.4 17.6 65.0 65.0 65.5

Indonesia IDR 13,337.5 0.0 -0.7 -1.8 -1.7 6.3 35.2 13,870.0 13,975.0 14,270.0

Korea KRW 1,064.8 0.2 -0.3 -1.9 -0.5 -1.2 0.6 1,060.0 1,040.0 1,050.0

Malaysia MYR 4.0 0.0 -1.2 -3.1 -2.4 11.3 31.1 4.4 4.5 4.6

Pakistan PKR 110.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 10.3 13.5 na na na

Philippines PHP 50.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.4 13.7 24.6 51.7 52.0 53.8

Taiwan TWD 29.6 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 -6.0 2.1 29.8 29.8 30.0

Thailand THB 32.0 0.1 -0.8 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 7.3 32.6 32.8 33.3

LATAM

Argentina ARS 18.7 0.0 -1.3 6.7 0.6 118.8 277.6 19.0 19.6 20.8

Brazil BRL 3.2 1.0 -0.2 -1.7 -2.4 23.5 58.5 3.3 3.3 3.3

Chile CLP 606.0 0.6 -0.6 -2.5 -1.5 -3.3 28.3 630.0 625.0 622.0

Mexico MXN 18.9 0.1 -2.0 -0.9 -4.1 29.4 50.1 19.4 19.5 19.6

Colombia COP 2,870.7 0.4 -0.7 -3.4 -3.8 21.2 62.6 3,012.6 3,026.0 3,043.2

Peru PEN 3.2 0.0 -0.2 -2.5 -0.8 7.0 26.2 3.2 3.2 3.3

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.8 0.3 -2.1 -3.5 -1.9 -5.5 9.4 0.8 0.8 0.8

UK GBP 0.7 0.3 -1.8 -2.7 -2.0 10.1 16.2 0.7 0.7 na

Switzerland CHF 1.0 0.0 -1.6 -2.4 -1.2 11.9 3.2 1.0 1.0 na

Japan JPY 110.7 0.2 -0.6 -1.5 -1.7 -5.6 23.0 117.0 119.0 117.5

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

17 January 2018



Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

16-Jan-18 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 2,189.0 -1.7 0.3 6.0 -3.5 18.6 7.0 -11.3 1728 1670 1984

Copper ($/mt) 7,078.0 -1.8 -1.0 2.8 -2.3 23.8 -10.9 1.1 5725 6800 7715

Nickel ($/mt) 12,482.0 -2.5 -3.1 8.3 -1.8 -15.2 -28.0 -54.8 11250 12500 14298

Iron Ore($/mt) 74.0 0.0 -1.3 9.5 4.6 6.7 -49.6 na 54 56 58

Zinc ($/mt) 3,429.0 -1.3 1.4 7.7 3.6 66.7 76.6 51.6 2538 2100 2498

Tin ($/mt) 20,355.0 -0.5 1.6 6.4 2.4 5.3 -18.2 26.7 19613 19408 19203

OIL

WTI (Oil) 63.7 -0.9 0.3 11.2 5.5 30.9 -32.4 -29.8 60 62 55

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,338.4 -0.1 1.6 6.6 2.7 4.5 -20.3 52.6 1255 1288 1305

Palladium Spot $/Oz 1,096.1 -2.9 0.9 6.8 3.0 44.7 51.7 193.5 783 850 900

Platinum Spot $/Oz 998.9 0.0 2.8 11.7 7.3 -21.2 -40.8 -35.9 1125 1250 1300

Silver Spot $/Oz 17.2 -0.9 1.3 7.0 1.5 -3.4 -45.4 8.9 18.5 19.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

CE

EM

EA

& Latam

Dayb

oo

k

17

Janu

ary 20

18

Deu

tsche B

ank A

G/Lo

nd

on

P

age 21

Macro Data GDP Growth

(YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI

(YoY %)

CA Balance

(% GDP)

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Total Govt Debt

(% GDP)

Total Ext Debt

(% GDP)

Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 4.2 3.4 217 20518 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.4 1 0.8 35.1 33.3 61.9 51.5

Egypt 4.1 4.5 NA NA 23.5 22.5 -6.1 -4.4 -10.9 -9.1 101.2 88.8 NA NA

Hungary 3.9 3.5 137 13950 2.3 2.5 3.8 3.1 -2.3 -2.4 72.0 70.6 92.5 89.7

Israel 3.3 3.5 352 40353 0.2 0.8 3.7 3.0 -1.9 -2.6 60.3 60.3 24.4 22.2

Kazakhstan 3.3 2.8 NA NA 7.3 6.5 -5.3 -3.8 -6.5 -2.0 NA NA NA NA

Poland 4.2 3.8 521 13724 2.0 2.2 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -2.5 51.0 50.8 72.3 72.4

Russia 1.7 1.9 1555 10589 3.7 3.6 2.9 3.1 -2.5 -1.4 13.9 16.1 33.9 32.5

Saudi Arabia 0.1 1.1 NA NA -0.2 5.0 0.6 0.4 -8.603 -7.244 17.0 20.7 NA NA

South Africa 1.0 1.7 352 6196 5.3 4.7 -2.5 -3.1 -4.3 -3.9 54.2 57.0 37.1 33.6

Turkey 5.7 4.9 833 10493 11.1 10.2 -5.1 -4.8 -1.9 -2.5 28.9 29.2 51.7 53.5

United Arab Emirates 1.3 3.4 NA NA 2.1 2.9 2.1 2.1 -3.7 -2.2 20.7 20.8 43.9 NA

ASIA

China 6.8 6.3 12132 8607 1.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 -4 -4 37.5 38.4 13.0 13.2

India 6.3 7.5 2506 1918 3.2 4.5 -1.5 -1.7 -3.2 -3 69.7 68.4 19.8 18.8

Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1016 3854 3.8 3.7 -1.4 -0.8 -2.5 -2.7 28.9 30.6 30.8 28.0

Korea 3.2 2.9 1520 29812 2.0 1.7 5.3 4.4 0.7 0.7 41.2 41.2 27.0 24.7

Malaysia 6.0 5.7 314 9793 3.8 2.7 3.0 2.6 -3.0 -2.8 66.3 65.7 62.3 54.6

Philippines 6.5 5.7 313 2978 3.2 3.2 0.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7 44.3 43.9 23.4 21.9

Taiwan 2.6 2.3 567 24076 0.6 1.3 12.4 10.2 -0.5 -0.7 38.2 38.8 31.7 31.0

Thailand 3.8 3.9 449 6777 0.7 1.4 10.0 8.1 -2.0 -2.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6

LATAM

Argentina 3.0 3.3 625 14 27.5 20.0 -3.8 -4.1 -6.2 -5.2 45.2 49.7 31.2 30.9

Brazil 1.1 2.6 2018 9726 3.4 3.2 -0.4 -1.2 -8.2 -7.4 75.5 76.6 27.5 26.9

Chile 1.5 3.4 276 15 2.2 2.3 -1.2 -1.3 -3.2 -2.9 24.8 26.7 61.5 60.6

Colombia 1.6 2.6 306 6196 4.3 3.0 -3.6 -3.5 -3.7 -3.3 45.3 46.1 41.9 41.9

Mexico 1.9 2.2 1404 11 6.0 4.6 -1.5 -2.2 -1.8 -2.2 48.0 47.3 29.5 23.0

Peru 2.7 4.0 213 6708 2.9 1.8 -1.1 -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 38.0 37.2

Venezuela -12.0 -6.0 215 6850 652.7 2349.3 -0.4 -1.3 -18.5 -18.7 23.0 19.7 65.3 66.8

CEEMEA 2.6 2.9 3966 115823 6.8 7.1 -0.5 -0.4 -4.2 -3.5 32.8 33.8 45.7 44.4

ASIA 6.1 6.0 18816 87815 2.3 3.1 1.4 1.1 -3.2 -3.2 42.3 42.8 18.0 17.5

LATAM 1.7 2.7 5057 29520 6.9 5.4 -1.5 -2.1 -5.1 -4.8 55.2 56.1 33.3 31.2

EM 4.8 4.9 27839 233158 3.8 4.3 0.6 0.4 -3.6 -3.5 43.3 43.9 24.7 23.8

US 2.3 2.6 NA NA 2.1 2.1 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA

Europe 2.3 2.3 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.3 2.7 -1.1 -0.9 NA NA NA NA

Japan 1.5 1.0 NA NA 0.3 0.4 4.1 4.5 -3.5 -3.0 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

17 January 2018



Interest Rates Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35

Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118

Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)


17 January 2018



P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

country's 10-year historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.88 10.3% 0.0%

DM 2.53 28.5% 13.7%

US 3.42 37.6% 21.3%

Brazil 1.92 15.9% 6.0%

Chile 2.10 2.4% -7.6%

China 2.20 17.8% 8.3%

Colombia 1.44 -14.7% -23.0%

Czech Republic 1.52 -12.6% -19.9%

Egypt 3.03 42.6% 29.2%

Greece 0.59 -44.6% -49.6%

Hungary 1.83 44.9% 31.8%

India 3.35 9.6% -1.3%

Indonesia 3.26 -7.3% -16.2%

Korea 1.23 1.9% -7.7%

Malaysia 1.74 -12.9% -22.2%

Mexico 2.66 -3.2% -14.0%

Peru 2.58 -16.9% -22.8%

Philippines 2.66 -2.2% -13.8%

Poland 1.59 15.0% 3.9%

Qatar 1.55 -20.7% -28.5%

Russia 0.91 -2.5% -9.4%

South Africa 2.60 6.4% -5.3%

Taiwan 1.99 9.7% -1.9%

Thailand 2.41 16.8% 3.9%

Turkey 1.43 -8.6% -17.8%

UAE 1.51 16.7% 3.1% Source: Deutsche Bank

P/BV valuation – By EM Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.88 10.3% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 2.34 10.0% -1.6%

Consumer Staples 4.10 14.4% 1.0%

Energy 1.04 -10.0% -16.2%

Financials 1.36 -9.7% -17.7%

Health Care 4.73 29.3% 14.0%

Industrial 1.49 -7.1% -15.6%

Information Technology 3.26 48.0% 32.5%

Materials 1.67 6.0% -2.2%

Real Estate 1.63 18.1% 4.8%

Telco 2.02 -11.8% -20.8%

Utilities 1.12 -2.3% -12.8% Source: Deutsche Bank

17 January 2018



CEEMEA valuation 01/16/18 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2018E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 102 -0.6 5.8 91.00 19.3 18.8 15.8 15.0 3.1 3.6 16929

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 34.60 -0.1 11.4 41.00 11.9 12.5 5.9 5.0 0.9 3.0 30674

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 43.46 1.9 9.6 45.00 12.0 12.8 9.9 8.5 1.2 2.6 10450

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 108 -2.3 4.4 143.00 17.6 17.5 11.3 10.1 2.2 3.2 15929

Bladex BLX.N Hold 29.93 0.4 11.3 25.00 9.3 10.3 11.6 10.2 1.1 6.0 1178

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 11.10 0.9 8.4 11.00 16.6 17.7 8.8 7.7 1.7 3.5 67544

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 224 0.5 8.0 242.00 18.9 19.2 12.7 11.3 2.4 3.5 17862

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Buy 14.30 1.3 10.0 16.00 20.9 22.8 10.1 8.8 2.3 7.2 93012

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 10.02 -0.5 3.6 10.00 17.1 18.5 12.1 11.0 2.2 7.4 37568

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 34.00 0.8 8.7 29.00 18.2 18.7 15.5 13.8 2.9 3.5 16018

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 7.66 -0.4 4.8 10.00 15.6 16.1 10.9 9.7 1.5 4.7 10383

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 59.20 0.1 10.9 32.00 20.8 17.5 26.8 22.5 9.1 3.0 1627

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 18.96 -1.2 -5.2 16.50 11.8 9.8 na na 2.4 0.0 2702

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 24.43 -0.9 -2.3 23.00 12.7 10.8 16.9 14.6 2.9 4.7 1219

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 6,299 -0.6 4.0 7,000.00 17.4 16.1 26.4 23.2 3.1 1.2 25306

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 131 2.0 9.8 187.50 9.1 8.1 14.1 12.3 1.8 0.9 9341

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 15.60 -1.9 -6.2 16.00 10.3 9.0 43.1 39.0 9.5 0.2 7708

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 36.32 -0.7 4.9 34.00 14.6 4.8 27.3 8.4 7.1 1.3 7991

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 80.04 -0.6 4.1 94.00 8.5 7.5 15.2 14.1 2.6 2.8 3648

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 34.28 -2.3 0.4 54.00 5.7 4.9 10.3 9.1 19.1 9.7 1721

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 80.00 -1.8 8.0 97.00 11.8 11.1 13.0 13.0 11.0 7.3 3066

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,820 -0.7 5.6 23,400.00 6.3 5.4 20.9 15.4 0.8 0.8 2623

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.75 1.2 4.5 6.15 15.2 13.6 24.7 22.4 8.9 4.2 106053

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 137 1.1 4.7 140.00 9.9 9.0 21.1 18.5 2.6 1.7 12804

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 12.28 -0.2 9.1 15.50 7.3 na 15.2 na 2.1 1.3 9811

Carrefour Brasil CRFB3.SA Buy 14.51 -1.1 -2.5 20.50 7.2 6.1 18.7 16.0 2.2 1.3 8893

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 75.00 -2.9 -2.6 107.00 8.1 6.9 27.3 19.9 2.3 0.9 6156

CCU CCU.N Hold 28.57 -0.2 -3.4 25.00 9.7 8.7 21.7 19.2 2.6 2.3 5278

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,885 -0.6 5.7 2,000.00 8.6 na 17.4 na 1.2 1.4 8842

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 40.77 3.0 17.6 40.00 6.1 5.0 15.6 12.7 1.2 0.6 2085

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 72.91 1.7 4.7 72.50 8.6 7.6 18.9 15.5 2.3 2.6 15317

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 40.80 -0.1 11.9 48.00 11.7 9.9 18.1 14.6 1.5 1.8 1524

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 29.70 0.1 -1.0 32.00 8.9 7.8 20.9 17.6 3.1 2.5 4686

Femsa FMX.N Buy 97.50 2.3 3.8 109.00 9.1 7.6 23.9 20.8 2.5 1.8 34888

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 246 0.1 2.6 332.00 9.5 8.7 15.6 14.6 2.6 1.8 5646

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 44.40 1.1 6.2 58.00 8.0 7.1 20.0 16.1 2.9 1.2 11078

JBS JBSS3.SA Hold 9.70 -1.9 1.3 11.50 4.3 3.8 5.6 4.7 0.8 2.0 8114

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 35.48 3.1 6.5 41.00 12.7 11.4 20.8 18.1 17.4 4.6 5801

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 10.28 -1.2 -1.1 24.25 5.0 4.3 33.5 7.6 5.0 0.8 719

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 33.01 -2.7 2.3 26.50 9.9 na 23.5 na 8.8 1.9 4404

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.34 1.5 5.2 44.00 6.5 5.7 13.8 11.7 1.2 1.2 3852

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 46.90 2.2 1.2 47.20 13.2 12.1 22.6 20.5 5.3 4.3 43443

Diversified Financials

B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 23.84 -0.3 7.3 28.00 15.6 13.2 21.3 17.8 0.7 3.0 15039

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 34.23 0.9 5.2 45.00 10.6 9.4 15.6 13.7 na 4.8 1077

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 25.06 -2.2 6.1 36.00 1.0 1.0 5.3 4.1 0.9 1.6 521

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 17.00 -0.2 7.9 20.00 1.7 1.7 11.6 9.0 1.6 5.6 1464

Energy

Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 18.79 0.8 13.9 20.80 5.8 na 9.2 na 1.2 1.8 108401


Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 7.98 -0.5 0.8 11.00 16.3 14.2 5.7 4.0 6.2 2.5 7990

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 25.47 3.0 6.9 31.00 20.9 16.9 57.4 42.7 10.0 0.0 8404

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 138 -2.1 3.0 142.00 9.2 10.1 13.0 14.6 2.7 2.9 5857

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 9.30 1.5 6.2 11.00 9.5 7.8 92.6 52.3 na 1.3 3234

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 29.54 1.8 7.5 35.00 5.5 5.3 9.2 8.1 1.3 0.0 1102

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 15.76 -2.2 13.4 17.00 9.0 7.3 16.1 10.3 2.6 0.0 9557

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 8.70 8.3 8.5 12.00 52.1 30.4 100.8 57.3 14.3 0.0 8803

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 24.48 2.1 6.7 26.00 12.8 11.4 15.2 13.7 3.9 4.4 20577

MercadoLibre MELI.OQ Hold 340 -0.8 8.0 335.00 71.9 54.0 133.2 93.0 28.0 0.2 15007

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 42.88 1.9 21.0 38.00 na na 10.7 48.0 1.9 3.7 4287

Materials

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 1,010 -3.0 2.3 900.00 6.1 5.5 16.3 14.0 1.8 2.2 13706

Cemex CX.N Buy 8.14 1.4 8.5 9.60 7.3 6.3 13.6 9.9 1.2 0.0 11674

Vale VALE.N Hold 13.17 -2.7 7.7 12.50 5.0 5.2 9.6 10.6 1.3 2.4 68431

Telecommunication Services

America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.37 0.5 1.3 21.00 5.5 5.2 17.4 14.5 3.5 1.8 57252

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 15.62 -0.6 5.3 21.00 6.0 5.5 14.7 12.4 1.2 6.5 26377

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 19.60 -1.8 1.5 22.00 4.7 4.2 19.2 15.2 1.5 1.2 9488

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

17 January 2018





Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 6.90 2.9 0.8 7.75 na na 10.8 9.7 na 5.6 624

Brait BATJ.J Buy 39.17 -1.3 -5.2 62.00 na na na 4.4 na NA 1603

Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 73.14 2.3 -0.2 68.00 12.2 12.2 14.9 13.3 11.2 7.0 2095

FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 63.09 3.1 -5.4 51.00 3.3 3.3 12.8 12.1 3.0 4.3 28870

Investec INVP.L Buy 540 0.6 2.8 590.00 0.0 0.0 9.8 8.9 0.0 5.1 6870

Investec INLJ.J Buy 90.36 -0.2 1.6 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.3 8.2 1.2 5.4 6804

JSE JSEJ.J Buy 170 1.3 11.1 144.00 11.3 9.9 11.7 10.8 4.1 3.3 1186

Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 113 -0.7 5.8 185.00 4.6 4.2 10.7 10.0 1.9 7.8 4467

Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 24.16 -2.8 -4.6 31.75 na na 9.9 9.0 na 6.2 431

RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 75.25 3.2 -4.2 63.00 2.6 2.6 11.4 na 2.4 4.5 8656

Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 16.50 3.0 -0.4 16.75 3.0 3.0 12.2 10.6 2.7 2.6 820

Energy

Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.78 0.0 -3.7 0.62 22.5 na na na 0.5 0.0 1480

Gazprom GAZP.MM Buy 145 1.7 13.6 210.00 3.6 4.2 3.4 4.2 0.3 5.8 56936

Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 259 0.3 8.3 260.00 3.4 3.7 3.7 4.1 0.7 5.7 21676

Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 18.42 2.2 3.4 27.00 7.6 7.2 10.6 10.3 0.9 5.4 929

LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,862 -0.3 18.2 4,300.00 3.6 3.3 7.0 7.0 0.8 5.7 48822

Novatek NVTKq.L Buy 125 0.2 3.6 170.00 10.6 10.9 12.7 9.3 2.6 2.3 37596

Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 318 -0.7 11.1 430.00 4.9 4.3 5.4 4.4 0.8 4.9 59665

Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 451 -1.3 6.2 470.00 7.0 6.2 11.2 11.5 1.2 3.4 22471

Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 29.25 1.5 7.0 33.00 3.2 3.3 4.5 5.1 0.3 2.6 22520

Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 29.64 1.8 7.5 36.50 3.2 3.4 4.5 5.1 0.3 2.6 22824

Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 529 2.2 12.7 525.00 5.4 6.2 8.1 9.6 1.5 6.9 21110

Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 182,500 1.1 3.5 250,000.00 3.8 3.4 6.2 5.6 0.7 5.8 23052

Health Care

Aspen APNJ.J Hold 259 1.0 -5.9 305.00 11.5 10.4 17.6 16.0 2.2 1.3 9631

IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.65 0.0 -0.1 3.21 16.7 13.6 23.8 19.4 5.3 3.1 697

Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 26.50 0.9 -3.7 30.60 9.9 9.1 14.8 13.1 2.6 4.5 3229

MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.30 0.0 1.0 13.80 10.2 na 17.2 na 2.7 1.9 771

Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 101 -1.2 -4.6 93.50 13.3 13.2 20.5 18.3 0.0 1.6 6041

Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 600 -0.1 -5.9 502.00 13.4 13.3 23.4 20.9 0.0 1.6 6092

Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 24.35 2.4 -2.4 29.20 8.3 na 11.5 na 2.5 4.3 2736

NMC Health NMC.L Buy 3,102 2.1 9.5 4,120.00 22.2 18.9 29.4 24.2 6.5 0.5 8877

SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 31.25 -0.6 3.8 50.00 15.8 14.7 13.9 12.9 1.2 3.2 1000

Industrials

Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.68 -2.5 9.4 2.96 11.9 na 34.7 na 2.4 0.0 1094

Barloworld BAWJ.J Hold 161 -1.1 1.9 150.00 5.2 5.0 12.9 11.8 1.6 2.4 2770

Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 211 2.0 -2.4 168.00 9.3 8.6 14.6 13.3 2.9 2.7 5734

DP World DPW.DI Buy 26.49 0.0 6.0 28.00 10.1 9.2 14.1 12.5 2.1 1.8 21987

Drake & Scull DSI.DU Sell 2.20 -2.7 -5.2 1.13 na na na na 4.7 0.0 641

Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 5.68 0.8 -6.1 5.70 6.2 5.7 7.8 7.4 0.9 3.2 6279

Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.90 0.0 2.6 4.50 6.1 5.3 7.8 7.1 1.5 0.0 745

Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 10.04 0.4 6.9 9.50 4.8 4.4 9.9 9.0 1.9 7.4 1795

Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 110 2.7 12.3 125.00 46.5 42.0 13.6 13.5 1.6 4.2 17994

Orascom Construction OC.DI Hold 8.15 -0.6 -1.2 7.60 4.8 5.2 7.1 8.0 1.9 0.0 960

Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 16.13 2.0 -5.4 10.70 7.8 6.8 10.5 8.7 1.8 3.0 1571



17 January 2018




Materials

Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 377 -0.4 7.5 410.00 7.8 6.9 19.6 16.2 2.3 0.0 8050

AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Buy 135 -3.3 5.4 155.00 5.1 5.0 13.6 13.5 1.5 0.4 4523


Gold Fields GFIJ.J Buy 53.11 -3.7 -1.0 65.00 4.4 4.0 24.0 20.1 1.0 1.7 3551

Harmony HARJ.J Hold 21.39 -1.9 -4.9 20.00 2.6 4.8 7.9 na 0.3 4.0 763

Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 33.10 -3.7 2.9 45.00 7.6 2.8 na 6.6 0.5 0.0 1938

Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Hold 14.88 0.8 6.6 14.60 na 5.4 na na 0.3 0.0 343

Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 55.00 -0.9 5.6 31.00 18.5 16.1 49.5 45.0 2.3 0.0 17136

Nampak NPKJ.J Hold 17.05 1.1 6.0 18.50 4.5 3.8 9.5 8.5 1.0 0.0 890

Northam NHMJ.J Hold 56.00 -2.2 8.0 58.00 12.9 10.4 411.5 92.1 2.4 0.0 1596

Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 34.05 0.2 2.9 40.00 5.4 5.2 15.4 15.1 2.0 2.2 646

RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 32.81 10.0 18.2 35.00 22.8 13.2 36.2 22.6 0.6 0.0 610

SABIC 2010.SE Hold 106 -0.6 4.3 95.00 7.7 7.2 15.0 14.4 1.7 3.8 84953

Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 16.02 -3.2 2.1 16.00 4.0 3.4 10.1 10.0 1.4 0.0 2831

Real Estate

Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.28 0.4 3.6 3.00 6.6 6.2 7.8 7.8 0.7 4.7 4881

Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 20.32 4.1 3.0 22.00 27.7 21.3 17.1 9.2 0.9 0.0 1164

Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.49 2.3 5.4 3.20 4.4 4.2 5.5 5.3 1.3 7.1 5748

Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 10.96 -0.2 -23.8 6.00 23.3 23.7 42.3 47.2 0.6 0.0 3156

Emaar Development EMAARDEV.DU Hold 5.75 -0.3 13.0 5.50 4.2 4.4 6.3 5.6 2.9 4.6 6262

Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 14.06 4.9 3.8 12.10 47.0 38.6 47.9 34.6 1.3 0.0 3187

Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Buy 2.31 3.6 7.5 2.70 11.9 10.9 12.6 11.8 1.7 4.3 8185

Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Hold 7.32 -1.1 5.5 8.60 7.3 7.0 8.8 8.0 1.1 7.6 14268

Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 14.30 4.0 7.1 14.50 12.5 11.7 10.3 9.7 0.8 0.0 581

Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.70 2.2 -4.2 3.09 5.5 5.2 6.0 6.2 0.8 7.2 2700

Equites EQUJ.J Hold 21.71 3.0 4.2 21.50 17.7 16.0 16.8 15.1 1.3 0.0 724

Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 38.53 4.8 -7.9 42.00 18.7 17.0 17.4 15.1 0.8 0.0 3282

Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 18.05 3.1 -1.9 18.80 12.3 11.3 8.2 7.1 0.4 0.0 1682

Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 27.99 2.3 2.0 27.00 13.4 12.7 13.1 12.2 0.9 0.0 6524

Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 114 2.3 -2.2 125.00 18.0 17.2 14.7 13.4 1.1 0.0 2294

Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Hold 18.12 1.7 -2.8 18.00 9.5 9.8 7.1 6.7 0.6 0.0 386

Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 3.91 1.0 1.7 3.80 7.1 6.0 8.0 7.7 1.1 0.0 510

Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.91 2.7 2.8 11.50 15.3 14.5 11.4 10.6 1.0 0.0 4492

Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 132 2.7 -11.7 140.00 32.8 29.5 22.6 19.9 1.5 0.0 4326

SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.97 3.0 4.2 4.80 12.8 13.3 9.2 8.7 0.8 0.0 940

SODIC OCDI.CA Hold 18.80 -1.4 -0.9 17.20 5.7 3.1 8.3 6.3 1.2 0.0 360

TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.92 0.2 2.6 11.00 12.8 11.0 14.1 12.1 0.7 1.5 1155

Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Buy 21.40 3.9 4.0 24.00 12.9 12.1 12.9 12.3 1.0 0.0 1200


Digi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 37.80 -0.7 1.5 41.00 5.0 4.5 13.7 12.7 5.7 0.0 993

Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 17.80 -0.6 1.7 15.10 5.9 5.7 13.4 12.9 3.1 5.5 42145MegaFon MFONq.L Hold 9.40 -0.3 1.6 10.70 4.5 4.4 11.4 9.5 2.4 4.6 5233Mobily 7020.SE Sell 15.74 0.5 6.4 12.00 5.4 na na na 0.8 0.0 3232MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 134 1.8 -1.0 152.00 6.3 5.8 19.8 17.0 2.3 4.9 19649MTS MBT.N Hold 10.79 -1.5 5.9 10.60 5.1 5.0 10.1 10.1 13.2 8.5 10553Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 97.99 1.9 7.3 107.00 3.7 na 10.7 na 1.2 4.1 8518Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.51 0.8 -3.0 1.15 na na na na na na naSaudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 70.90 2.2 3.4 80.00 5.2 5.2 13.5 14.4 2.2 5.6 37810Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 13.45 -1.1 0.7 16.90 5.4 na 6.3 na 0.7 8.2 1296Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 48.59 5.1 1.8 49.00 3.3 3.4 9.1 9.8 0.9 8.4 2027Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 6.22 2.4 -3.7 6.00 4.6 4.2 8.5 6.9 3.6 6.0 5730Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 14.36 1.3 -7.5 17.10 5.6 5.2 10.3 9.4 2.0 6.1 8289Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 143 2.4 -0.8 163.00 7.9 7.3 16.4 14.6 3.2 5.2 18965

UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 505 0.4 3.9 550.00 7.8 7.3 18.8 17.1 1.1 6.4 12959Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 187 2.0 4.4 215.00 13.3 na 11.5 na 2.1 4.0 5579



17 January 2018



Latam valuation 01/16/18 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2018E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 102 -0.6 5.8 91.00 19.3 18.8 15.8 15.0 3.1 3.6 16929

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 34.60 -0.1 11.4 41.00 11.9 12.5 5.9 5.0 0.9 3.0 30674

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 43.46 1.9 9.6 45.00 12.0 12.8 9.9 8.5 1.2 2.6 10450

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 108 -2.3 4.4 143.00 17.6 17.5 11.3 10.1 2.2 3.2 15929

Bladex BLX.N Hold 29.93 0.4 11.3 25.00 9.3 10.3 11.6 10.2 1.1 6.0 1178

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 11.10 0.9 8.4 11.00 16.6 17.7 8.8 7.7 1.7 3.5 67544

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 224 0.5 8.0 242.00 18.9 19.2 12.7 11.3 2.4 3.5 17862

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Buy 14.30 1.3 10.0 16.00 20.9 22.8 10.1 8.8 2.3 7.2 93012

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 10.02 -0.5 3.6 10.00 17.1 18.5 12.1 11.0 2.2 7.4 37568

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 34.00 0.8 8.7 29.00 18.2 18.7 15.5 13.8 2.9 3.5 16018

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 7.66 -0.4 4.8 10.00 15.6 16.1 10.9 9.7 1.5 4.7 10383

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 59.20 0.1 10.9 32.00 20.8 17.5 26.8 22.5 9.1 3.0 1627

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 18.96 -1.2 -5.2 16.50 11.8 9.8 na na 2.4 0.0 2702

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 24.43 -0.9 -2.3 23.00 12.7 10.8 16.9 14.6 2.9 4.7 1219

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 6,299 -0.6 4.0 7,000.00 17.4 16.1 26.4 23.2 3.1 1.2 25306

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 131 2.0 9.8 187.50 9.1 8.1 14.1 12.3 1.8 0.9 9341

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 15.60 -1.9 -6.2 16.00 10.3 9.0 43.1 39.0 9.5 0.2 7708

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 36.32 -0.7 4.9 34.00 14.6 4.8 27.3 8.4 7.1 1.3 7991

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 80.04 -0.6 4.1 94.00 8.5 7.5 15.2 14.1 2.6 2.8 3648

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 34.28 -2.3 0.4 54.00 5.7 4.9 10.3 9.1 19.1 9.7 1721

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 80.00 -1.8 8.0 97.00 11.8 11.1 13.0 13.0 11.0 7.3 3066

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,820 -0.7 5.6 23,400.00 6.3 5.4 20.9 15.4 0.8 0.8 2623

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.75 1.2 4.5 6.15 15.2 13.6 24.7 22.4 8.9 4.2 106053

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 137 1.1 4.7 140.00 9.9 9.0 21.1 18.5 2.6 1.7 12804

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 12.28 -0.2 9.1 15.50 7.3 na 15.2 na 2.1 1.3 9811

Carrefour Brasil CRFB3.SA Buy 14.51 -1.1 -2.5 20.50 7.2 6.1 18.7 16.0 2.2 1.3 8893

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 75.00 -2.9 -2.6 107.00 8.1 6.9 27.3 19.9 2.3 0.9 6156

CCU CCU.N Hold 28.57 -0.2 -3.4 25.00 9.7 8.7 21.7 19.2 2.6 2.3 5278

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,885 -0.6 5.7 2,000.00 8.6 na 17.4 na 1.2 1.4 8842

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 40.77 3.0 17.6 40.00 6.1 5.0 15.6 12.7 1.2 0.6 2085

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 72.91 1.7 4.7 72.50 8.6 7.6 18.9 15.5 2.3 2.6 15317

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 40.80 -0.1 11.9 48.00 11.7 9.9 18.1 14.6 1.5 1.8 1524

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 29.70 0.1 -1.0 32.00 8.9 7.8 20.9 17.6 3.1 2.5 4686

Femsa FMX.N Buy 97.50 2.3 3.8 109.00 9.1 7.6 23.9 20.8 2.5 1.8 34888

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 246 0.1 2.6 332.00 9.5 8.7 15.6 14.6 2.6 1.8 5646

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 44.40 1.1 6.2 58.00 8.0 7.1 20.0 16.1 2.9 1.2 11078

JBS JBSS3.SA Hold 9.70 -1.9 1.3 11.50 4.3 3.8 5.6 4.7 0.8 2.0 8114

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 35.48 3.1 6.5 41.00 12.7 11.4 20.8 18.1 17.4 4.6 5801

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 10.28 -1.2 -1.1 24.25 5.0 4.3 33.5 7.6 5.0 0.8 719

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 33.01 -2.7 2.3 26.50 9.9 na 23.5 na 8.8 1.9 4404

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.34 1.5 5.2 44.00 6.5 5.7 13.8 11.7 1.2 1.2 3852

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 46.90 2.2 1.2 47.20 13.2 12.1 22.6 20.5 5.3 4.3 43443


B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 23.84 -0.3 7.3 28.00 15.6 13.2 21.3 17.8 0.7 3.0 15039

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 34.23 0.9 5.2 45.00 10.6 9.4 15.6 13.7 na 4.8 1077

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 25.06 -2.2 6.1 36.00 1.0 1.0 5.3 4.1 0.9 1.6 521

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 17.00 -0.2 7.9 20.00 1.7 1.7 11.6 9.0 1.6 5.6 1464

Energy



Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 7.98 -0.5 0.8 11.00 16.3 14.2 5.7 4.0 6.2 2.5 7990

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 25.47 3.0 6.9 31.00 20.9 16.9 57.4 42.7 10.0 0.0 8404

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 138 -2.1 3.0 142.00 9.2 10.1 13.0 14.6 2.7 2.9 5857

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 9.30 1.5 6.2 11.00 9.5 7.8 92.6 52.3 na 1.3 3234

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 29.54 1.8 7.5 35.00 5.5 5.3 9.2 8.1 1.3 0.0 1102

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 15.76 -2.2 13.4 17.00 9.0 7.3 16.1 10.3 2.6 0.0 9557

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 8.70 8.3 8.5 12.00 52.1 30.4 100.8 57.3 14.3 0.0 8803

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 24.48 2.1 6.7 26.00 12.8 11.4 15.2 13.7 3.9 4.4 20577

MercadoLibre MELI.OQ Hold 340 -0.8 8.0 335.00 71.9 54.0 133.2 93.0 28.0 0.2 15007

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 42.88 1.9 21.0 38.00 na na 10.7 48.0 1.9 3.7 4287

Materials


Cemex CX.N Buy 8.14 1.4 8.5 9.60 7.3 6.3 13.6 9.9 1.2 0.0 11674

Vale VALE.N Hold 13.17 -2.7 7.7 12.50 5.0 5.2 9.6 10.6 1.3 2.4 68431


America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.37 0.5 1.3 21.00 5.5 5.2 17.4 14.5 3.5 1.8 57252

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 15.62 -0.6 5.3 21.00 6.0 5.5 14.7 12.4 1.2 6.5 26377

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 19.60 -1.8 1.5 22.00 4.7 4.2 19.2 15.2 1.5 1.2 9488



17 January 2018



Appendix1

Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

46 % 46 %

8 %37 % 32 %

18 %0

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Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

17 January 2018



Additional Information

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17 January 2018



regarding organizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest with respect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer, found on the Legal tab. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. 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Funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect to any information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and is not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient will make an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts or for any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financially sophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particular transactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering of its products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving this directly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com on each company’s research page and under the "Disclosures Lookup" and

17 January 2018



"Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Analysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulations, including those regarding contacts with issuer companies. Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized under German Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request. Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited (save that any research relating to futures contracts within the meaning of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance Cap. 571 shall be distributed solely by Deutsche Securities Asia Limited). The provisions set out above in the "Additional Information" section shall apply to the fullest extent permissible by local laws and regulations, including without limitation the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registered office at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 7180 4444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registration nos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency Derivatives Segment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registration no.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have received administrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may have debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the “Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm. Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are based on a 12-month forecast period.. Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co.

17 January 2018



South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by Deutsche Bank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents. Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers should independently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank research may not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branch may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively. Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html Where research refers to any particular financial product recipients of the research should consider any product disclosure statement, prospectus or other applicable disclosure document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Copyright © 2018 Deutsche Bank AG

David Folkerts-Landau

Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer

Research

Michael Spencer Head of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

Steve Pollard Head of Americas Research

Global Head of Equity Research

Anthony Klarman Global Head of Debt Research

Paul Reynolds Head of EMEA

Equity Research

Dave Clark Head of APAC

Equity Research

Pam Finelli Global Head of

Equity Derivatives Research

Andreas Neubauer Head of Research - Germany

Spyros Mesomeris Global Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

International locations Deutsche Bank AG Deutsche Bank Place Level 16 Corner of Hunter & Phillip Streets Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234

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Deutsche Securities Inc. 2-11-1 Nagatacho Sanno Park Tower Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171 Japan Tel: (81) 3 5156 6770

Deutsche Bank AG London 1 Great Winchester Street London EC2N 2EQ United Kingdom Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 60 Wall Street New York, NY 10005 United States of America Tel: (1) 212 250 2500

Documents

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/.../0cacbd56-3cdf-4103-92f4-6712de68597c.pdf · · 2018-01-26CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 17 January 2018. Gautam Kalani. Page 2 Deutsche