CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/11/23/38f... · CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 23 November 2017 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London. Russia / CIS

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date 23 November 2017

Thursday,23 November 2017

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED INTHE PEOPLE ’ S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS ANDREGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU

Pascal Moura

Head of Research

(+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected]

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

(+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected]

CEEMEA Companies TARGET PRICE CHANGE Mediclinic International (Hold, TP GBP502.00) - Tempting to buy after the 34% fall YTD, but actually not that cheap; Hold Mediclinic (Hold, TP ZAR93.50) - Tempting to buy after the 34% fall YTD, but actually not that cheap; Hold

COMPANY UPDATE Gazprom (Hold, TP RUB115.00) - Parent-company investments may grow by 6.3% yoy in 2018 Sibanye-Stillwater (Hold, TP ZAR15.50) - Sibanye-Stillwater finds a neat solution to surface processing

SECTOR UPDATE GEMs Oil & Gas Valuation - Monthly update

LATAM Companies TARGET PRICE CHANGE GOL S.A. Alert (Buy, TP USD11.00) - Adjusting forecast and PT to reflect change in ADS ratio

COMPANY UPDATE Cencosud (Hold, TP CLP2,000.00) - 3Q17 results: shopping centers and financial services only positives

SECTOR UPDATE Metals & Mining Alert - Daily prices and news: US affirms duties on wire rod imports

STRATEGY EM Daily - Inflows dry up, but no major outflows yet FX Daily - MXN: Is no news good news? COFFEE report - Data from 21-Nov-2017 Consensus Earnings Trends - November 2017: 2018 earnings get head start from Asia upgrades Trade Recommendation - Turkey - Credit Retracement on a Hike

MACRO EM FX - EM Flows and Risk Sentiment: Inflows dry up, but no major outflows yet EMEA Snap - South Africa: Inflation declines for now, but upside risks ahead US Economic Notes - What you need to know for the week ahead

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Impala Platinum IMP SJ 3.1 10.6 Gulf Int'l Services GISS QD 4.2 6.3 Nampak NPK SJ 1.2 6.3 Sibanye-Stillwater SGL SJ 1.4 5.9 Dino DNP PW 19.9 5.3 AngloGold Ashanti ANG SJ 10.2 4.9 Tiger Brands TBS SJ 29.1 4.5 Enka Insaat ENKAI TI 1.6 4.1 Mr Price MRP SJ 15.0 4.0 Clicks Group Ltd CLS SJ 11.5 4.0

Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Octodec Investments

OCT SJ 1.2 -6.1

Naspers NPN SJ 280.9 -4.0 TCS TCS LI 18.0 -3.0 Barloworld BAW SJ 10.1 -2.4 Abu Dhabi Comm

ADCB DH 1.9 -2.2

Banque Saudi Fransi BSFR AB 7.8 -1.8 Coronation CML SJ 5.3 -1.7 NCB NCB AB 13.5 -1.4 Othaim AOTHAIM AB 32.4 -1.3 X5 Retail Group FIVE LI 38.4 -1.3

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Vale VALE UN 10.8 3.0 Cia Hering HGTX3 BS 8.9 2.7 Concha y Toro VCO US 35.3 2.2 Petrobras PETR4 BS 5.0 1.7 Santander Mexico BSMX US 8.3 1.6 Femsa FMX UN 90.1 1.4 B3 BVMF3 BZ 7.6 1.2 Petrobras PETR3 BS 5.1 1.2 America Movil AMX US 17.6 1.2 Minerva BEEF3 BS 3.6 1.1

Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg B2W BTOW3 BS 5.5 -2.9 Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA UN 134.9 -2.0 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.8 -2.0 Lojas Renner LREN3 BZ 10.8 -1.8 Santander Chile BSAC US 28.8 -1.5 Natura NATU3 BS 9.9 -1.5 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 10.1 -0.9 Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 15.1 -0.8 Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 4.8 -0.7 Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3 BS 24.8 -0.7

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

Distributed on: 23/11/2017 05:25:35 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c

CE

EM

EA

& Latam

Dayb

oo

k

23

No

vemb

er 20

17

Pag

e 2 D

eutsch

e Ban

k AG

/Lon

do

n

Russia / CIS LatamIvan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Grant Sporre Commodities +44 207 545 8170 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063

Marcel Moraes Retail +55 11 2113 5976Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619

Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949South Africa Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 415 262 2028Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568

Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267

GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732Marc Hammoud Telco +971 4 4283910 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094

Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118

CE3 Middle EastJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Tomasz Krukowski Consumer, O&G, Industrials +48 22 579 8732 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Carlos Galindo Economist +44 207 547 6269 Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Alizerra Kharazi MENA +44 207 5450083

Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864

Source: Deutsche Bank

23 November 2017


Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES Sinotrans (0598.HK, Buy) – Loscam - an overlooked long-term driver (Sky Hong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/643-417A/38615625/eab7fcf0-056b-493f-a92c-255144e52a98_604.pdf SONY (6758.T, Buy) – Semiconductor business to continue driving profit growth; Buy (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/577-0382/38459664/0900b8c08dd22e94.pdf

INITIATION OF COVERAGE Hugel (145020.KQ, Buy) – Deep dive into toxin and fillers market; initiating with Buy (Sanghi Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/754-E8A0/40165316/0900b8c08dac0f14.pdf

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Disco (6146.T, Hold) – Downgrading to Hold: Share price now factors in growth (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/527-44EA/38337826/0900b8c08ddbd2f2.pdf SPE/Electronics materials/Semiconductor – Limits of Moore's Law increase equipment/materials added value (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/700-2E35/41252973/0900b8c08db32fb3.pdf Tosho (8920.T, Hold) – Share price reflects high long-term growth (Junichi Shimizu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/244-DC43/38272142/0900b8c08dd49375.pdf

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES Baozun (BZUN.OQ, Hold) – Rising electronics, weakening take rate (Eileen Deng) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2221-85E7/40773953/0c3f2b49-5ae0-44a2-a980-64e36d0f6c0b_604.pdf CSPC Pharma (1093.HK, Buy) – Another solid quarter (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3123-0300/37298148/9ee873a4-c8ef-11e7-b4ad-96e0c7d2c070_604.pdf TravelSky Tech (0696.HK, Buy) – Good entry point - Buy (Tallan Zhou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2070-7902/40640215/b4ce052d-edfd-4940-a32f-cdd0a48f13ab_604.pdf Want Want China (0151.HK, Hold) – Key takeaway from 3Q17 result conference call (Mark Yuan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/922-757F/37823702/241f48dc-7e04-4644-b242-683f3033d223_604.pdf Japanese airlines – Flying high (Joe Liew) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/559-AFFB/39204041/0900b8c08dd61c36.pdf Panasonic (6752.T, Buy) – Forecast revision: automotive batteries to drive profit growth; Buy (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/559-7F15/40840609/0900b8c08dd22c6d.pdf Screen HD (7735.T, Buy) – See profits rising further as demand from foundries improves (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/524-250E/38027833/7735_English.pdf Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T, Buy) – Good visibility for both wafers and PVC; further upside likely (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/253-707E/38027801/0900b8c08ddbe531.pdf SUMCO (3436.T, Buy) – Paradigm shift for valuations buoys share price (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/252-9B75/37768156/0900b8c08ddbf33f.pdf Tokyo Electron (8035.T, Buy) – Biggest winner from new normal as miniaturization approaches limits (Yu Yoshida) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/528-348B/37765180/8035.pdf Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL.AX, Hold) – 2017 guidance reiterated but 2018 downgrade implied (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/538-6048/39547555/bc88227c-b141-4c50-bea3-092e51216582_604.pdf CUB (2231.TW, Buy) – Waiting for microwave radar to take off (Frank Lin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/600-8137/40101082/0900b8c08ddd8494.pdf Indosat (ISAT.JK, Buy) – Slower growth; earnings and TP downgrades (Raymond Kosasih) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/731-4B57/38336188/228e1089-6229-4dbc-a055-a65c7a070336_604.pdf

MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – Treasuries rally as FOMC minutes note some concern about inflation expectations... (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9270-459E/42040448/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2017-11-22_46431aea-ceff-11e7-ac92-4c97f267772c_604.pdf FX View from Down Under – Where to now for kiwi? (Tim Baker) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/5099-FFFD/43284699/FX_View_from_Down_Under.pdf Taiwan Semi Strategy – US marketing feedback (Michael Chou) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/656-C004/40233169/0900b8c08dd73735.pdf

23 November 2017


Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

MACRO/STRATEGY Consensus Earnings Trends – November 2017: 2018 earnings get head start from Asia upgrades (Wolf Von Rotberg) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3833-436F/41843377/Consensus_Earnings_Trends.pdf US Economic Notes – What you need to know for the week ahead (Brett Ryan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8305-4A64/42408844/DB_USEconDly_2017-11-22_982643d6-cbd6-11e7-b4ad-96e0c7d2c070_604.pdf UK economic notes – UK budget: easier does it (Oliver Harvey) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/14616-1856/40460778/DB_UKEconTopic_2017-11-22_64d54aa3-4107-4bd6-8cdb-b0c6bbe95c92_604.pdf Hsueh On Oil – Taking stock before OPEC (Michael Hsueh) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/7477-3646/37844514/HsuehOnOil.pdf

HONG KONG / CHINA China Containerboard – 3rd consecutive price cut sends paper prices to bear market (Johnson Wan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/681-8C8D/39568146/e19cdf56-9933-473d-9752-51d1ea4de429_604.pdf Chinese airlines – Share prices have rallied, but are there any structural changes? (Vincent Ha) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/774-D5C5/38450372/4097a751-5c70-4a2b-a21b-95b669852f9e_604.pdf

JAPAN Commodity - Bulks – Yamato steel and Tokyo steel to increase selling prices by JPY3,000/t (James Kan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/578-E67A/37355564/0900b8c08ddc3f71.pdf Consumer Electronics Industry – JEMA: Oct domestic home electrical appliance shipment value -5% YoY (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/533-A41E/38410628/0900b8c08ddd7f31.pdf Japan & Korea Autos – Seasonal trends in US spend for most; Nissan stands out (Kurt Sanger) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/763-C0A3/38802294/0900b8c08ddbf88b.pdf Nexon (3659.T, Buy) – Interesting time to pursue D&F copyright infringement (Han Joon Kim) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/683-B32A/41391793/eb7dc05d-deef-4a68-8f76-422b1441ea3a_604.pdf Seiko HD (8050.T, Buy) – Strengthening marketing under president Takahashi (Hiroshi Taguchi) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/534-F9B6/42163139/0900b8c08dddbe4e.pdf Suruga Bank (8358.T, Buy) – Card loan slowdown is temporary blip (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/538-02FC/39861855/0900b8c08ddd45a2.pdf

AUSTRALIA Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – FY17 result preview (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/226-127C/38703783/0900b8c08dcf0a87.pdf Caltex (CTX.AX, Buy) – Refiner Margin Monitor - October trends lower on higher Brent and FX (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/861-A355/37010534/0900b8c08ddcfb36.pdf Investore Property (IPL.NZ, Hold) – 1H18: A quiet, steady half (Joshua Dale) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/242-039E/37457916/0900b8c08dd1eec6.pdf JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH.AX, Buy) – GameStop read through highlights new product upside (Michael Simotas) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/490-55AF/36404232/e36f71c7-fc26-4efc-9118-2e69e76d9fb6_604.pdf

KOREA/TAIWAN CJ Cheiljedang Corp (097950.KS, Buy) – Full-fledged earnings recovery in 2018 should trigger further re-rating in P/E (Jihyun Song) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/852-8576/41267083/0900b8c08ddd3c82.pdf Consumer Electronics – ITC recommends imposing safeguard tariff on Korean washing machines (Seung Hoon Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/554-05FA/38926789/0900b8c08ddd461c.pdf Korea Biosimilars – Not impressive growth of Inflectra in October (Sanghi Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/712-6784/39938887/0900b8c08ddd4024.pdf

INDIA India Telecoms – New rules on spectrum caps positive for Idea-Vodafone merger (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/654-2C1B/37005860/0900b8c08ddd066b.pdf

ASEAN Singapore Telecoms – MyRepublic intends to launch as MVNO in 1Q18 (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/963-D9CE/38830830/0900b8c08ddd6c16.pdf

23 November 2017



ASEAN Telekom Malaysia (TLMM.KL, Buy) – 3Q17: stable results; mobile rebranding slated for 1Q18 (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/926-0994/40040647/0900b8c08dda8d02.pdf DB Indo Pundi – Outlook 2018: steady growth; OW Indo banks (Raymond Kosasih) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/693-36CF/40260443/e776c4a9-c3d0-473a-a2f2-a0c8888e1c9c_604.pdf Jasa Marga (JSMR.JK, Buy) – 3Q17 results - NPAT ahead on toll divestment gain (Joko Sogie) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/579-DB91/38720485/0900b8c08ddd7178.pdf Airports of Thailand (AOT.BK, Buy) – Strong Int'l arrivals in October (Joe Phanich) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/635-E348/39444100/0900b8c08ddd9cce.pdf Thai Telecom – A Game of Spectrums (Part 2) (Joe Phanich) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/756-7F61/38224869/0900b8c08ddc64bd.pdf

APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess Thailand SET Corporate Day - 22-23 Nov @Singapore dbAccess Taiwan Technology Supply Chain Corporate Day - 29 Nov@Taipei, Taiwan dbAccess China Conference - 8-12@Beijing, China

CE

EM

EA

& Latam

Dayb

oo

k

23

No

vemb

er 20

17

Pag

e 6 D

eutsch

e Ban

k AG

/Lon

do

n

EPS changes

NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA

Mediclinic South Africa 39.9 24.7 -38.1 787.0 -96.9 43.4 27.8 -36.0 28.7 Hold Hold 150.0 93.5 -37.7

Mediclinic International South Africa 39.9 24.7 -38.1 116.8 -78.8 43.4 27.8 -36.0 131.0 -78.8 28.7 Hold Hold 860.0 502.0 -41.6

LATAM

GOL S.A. Brazil 0.9 0.9 -2.7 0.0 5,914.0 0.8 0.8 -2.3 1.4 1.4 -2.9 Buy Buy 27.0 11.0 -59.3

ASIA

Sinotrans China 0.4 0.5 +15.6 0.4 14.8 0.5 0.5 +1.4 0.6 -17.9 0.5 0.5 +4.1 Buy Buy 6.0 6.6 +10.0

TravelSky Tech China 1.0 1.0 +5.7 1.1 1.2 +8.3 Buy Buy 23.0 25.7 +11.7

Baozun China 4.3 4.5 +4.6 7.0 7.1 +1.4 10.6 10.7 +1.2 Hold Hold 30.0 33.0 +10.0

KL Kepong Malaysia 1.3 1.3 -0.2 1.2 8.4 1.2 1.2 -0.1 1.2 1.2 -0.1 Buy Buy 30.0 30.0

Want Want China China 0.3 0.3 -5.8 0.3 0.3 +0.6 0.3 0.3 +3.9 Hold Hold 6.0 6.3 +5.0

CUB Taiwan 13.0 12.0 -7.6 16.3 15.1 -7.3 19.7 19.6 -0.3 Buy Buy 426.0 393.0 -7.7

Chandra Asri Indonesia 0.1 0.0 -80.0 0.1 0.0 -80.0 0.1 0.0 -80.0 Hold Hold 25,620. 5,124.0 -80.0

CSPC Pharma China Buy Buy 17.9 19.1 +6.7

Hugel Korea 17,588.

19,966.

22,685.

Buy 622,00

Indosat Indonesia 354.6 323.8 -8.7 459.2 391.6 -14.7 Buy Buy 8,900.0 8,100.0 -9.0

Source: Bloomberg Finance

23 November 2017



Solar Portfolio

22-Nov-17

Companies RIC Buy/Sell Promoted Entry Price Current Price Performance

CE3

X5 RETAIL GROUP PJPq.L Buy 19/10/2017 40.26 38.34 -4.77%

MENA

SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY 7010.SE Buy 01/10/2017 70.50 68.60 -2.70%

TELECOM EGYPT ETEL.CA Buy 01/10/2017 12.95 12.36 -4.56%

NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 2,866.00 4.18%

GULF INT'L SERVICES GISS.QA Buy 01/10/2017 19.99 15.30 -23.46%

HERFY 6002.SE Buy 23/10/2017 46.74 45.75 -2.11%

Russia

SASOL SOLJ.J Sell 27/10/2017 40,874.81 43,756.00 -7.05%

ROSNEFT ROSN.MM Buy 15/11/2017 303.74 301.45 -0.75%

TRANSNEFT TRNF_p.MM Buy 21/11/2017 180,959.09 180,850.00 -0.06%

South Africa

STANDARD BANK SBKJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 15,781.00 16,900.00 7.09%

BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP BGAJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 13,900.00 15,172.00 9.15%

HYPROP HYPJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 10,572.00 10,382.00 -1.80%

Turkey

YAPI KREDI BANK YKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 4.32 4.15 -3.94%

AKBANK AKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 9.40 9.30 -1.06%

VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS Sell 01/10/2017 6.27 5.72 8.77%

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Rating

Hold Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

Healthcare

Company

Mediclinic International

Date

22 November 2017

Forecast Change

Tempting to buy after the 34% fall YTD, but actually not that cheap; Hold

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker MDCM.L MDC LN LSE MDCM

ADR Ticker ISIN ANHGY US01021D1046

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Mar 31 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue (GBPm) 2,749 2,800 2,779 2,906

EBITDA (GBPm) 509 469 474 494

DB EPS (GBP) 29.84 24.71 27.76 28.73

OLD DB EPS (GBP) 31.49 39.93 43.36 –

% Change -5.2% -38.1% -36.0% –

DB EPS growth (%) -18.4 -17.2 12.4 3.5

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 29.6 20.5 18.3 17.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 10.9 10.8 10.3

DPS (GBP) 7.90 7.20 7.20 7.20

Yield (%) 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items

year-end close

Cutting our TP by 42% on revised forecasts; maintaining Hold

Price at 21 Nov 2017 (GBP) 507.50

Price Target (GBP) 502.00

52-week range (GBP) 887.00 - 507.50

Marc Hammoud

Research Analyst

(+971) 0 4428-3910

[email protected]

Letlotlo Lenake

Research Analyst

(+27) 11 775-7299

[email protected]

Key changes

Target Price 860.00 to 502.00 ↓ -41.6%


Price/price relative

450

600

750

900

1050

1200

11/15 5/16 11/16 5/17

Mediclinic Internati

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute -20.8 -29.6 -32.1

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 5.6 10.4 21.0


Stock data

Market cap (GBP)(m) 3,740.0

Free float (%) 45


Risks: The biggest downside risks to which Mediclinic is exposed are regulatory in nature. Further deterioration in the political and economic environment in SA, cost inflation running above tariff increases for a prolonged period of time in SA, ongoing implementation of DRG-based pricing in Dubai, a limited recovery in the Abu Dhabi operations, and a weaker UAE macro environment on the back of low oil prices and geopolitical tensions are also downside risks to consider. Last but not least, there is a risk of being removed from the FTSE 100 index on 29 November given the extent of the recent fall in the stock price. Key upside risks include the return to a positive trend in volume growth in both SA and Switzerland and a faster recovery in the Abu Dhabi operations.

It could be tempting to buy Mediclinic after the 34% fall YTD, but we believe it is still not that cheap on our revised forecasts (we now use spot FX rates for our forecasts and valuation). With its two key markets – Switzerland and SA – likely to continue to face strong headwinds, it is difficult to be bullish. As for the UAE, the recovery story will be hampered by ongoing capacity expansion. Mediclinic is not an obvious choice amongst CEEMEA Healthcare names, in our opinion; even for those who have to be in SA, some of the other healthcare and consumer names offer a more attractive value proposition. Hold.

Subdued growth in both Switzerland and SA in the short to medium term In Switzerland, the structural shift in the market with the outmigration of care trend and insurance mix change, investment costs associated with the Hirslanden 2020 strategic program, adverse upcoming regulations, and the recent acquisition of Linde Hospital have all resulted in a subdued revenue performance and pressure on margins. In SA, we expect the continued weak macro environment, strong competition, funder interventions, and unfavorable shift in the case mix to continue to pressure volumes and margins.

Recovery story in the UAE hampered by new capacity coming online in FY20 In the UAE there are three key capital projects (with aggregate capex investments of AED845m / c.GBP175m) that should come online in H1-FY20: a new 188-bed Parkview hospital in Dubai, expansion and oncology center at the existing Airport Road hospital in Abu Dhabi, and refurbishment of the ground and mezzanine floors at Khalifa Street hospital. So, starting in FY19, these capital projects should have a 100-400bps impact on margins, with the peak of the impact to be felt in FY20, according to management.

Valuation We continue to value Mediclinic using a SOTP EV/EBITDA relative valuation method: we use a different EV/EBITDA exit multiple for Mediclinic’s three key markets (SA, Switzerland, and the UAE) and the market value of its investment in Spire Healthcare. Please see details page 4.

23 November 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook


Rating

Hold Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

Healthcare

Company

Mediclinic Date

22 November 2017

Forecast Change

Tempting to buy after the 34% fall YTD, but actually not that cheap; Hold

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker MEIJ.J MEI SJ JNB MEIJ

ADR Ticker ISIN MCFFY US58470X1063

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Mar 31 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue (GBPm) 2,749 2,800 2,779 2,906

EBITDA (GBPm) 509 469 474 494

DB EPS (GBP) 29.84 24.71 27.76 28.73

OLD DB EPS (GBP) 31.49 39.93 43.36 –

% Change -5.2% -38.1% -36.0% –

DB EPS growth (%) -18.4 -17.2 12.4 3.5

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 29.7 20.7 18.4 17.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 11.0 10.9 10.3

DPS (GBP) 7.90 7.20 7.20 7.20

Yield (%) 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2 Multiples and yield calculations use average historical prices for past years and current price for estimate years, except P/B which uses the

year-end close

Cutting our TP by 42% on revised forecasts; maintaining Hold

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Price at 21 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 94.70

Price Target (ZAR) 93.50

52-week range (ZAR) 151.86 - 94.70

Marc Hammoud

Research Analyst

(+971) 0 4428-3910

[email protected]

Key changes

Target Price 150.00 to 93.50 ↓ -37.7%



80

120

160

200

240

280

2/16 8/16 2/17 8/17

Mediclinic

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)


Absolute -18.2 -22.4 -28.0

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 5.6 10.4 21.0


Stock data

Market cap (ZAR)(m) 69,788.2

Free float (%) 45


Risks: The biggest downside risks to which Mediclinic is exposed are regulatory in nature. Further deterioration in the political and economic environment in SA, cost inflation running above tariff increases for a prolonged period of time in SA, ongoing implementation of DRG-based pricing in Dubai, a limited recovery in the Abu Dhabi operations, and a weaker UAE macro environment on the back of low oil prices and geopolitical tensions are also downside risks to consider. Last but not least, there is a risk of being removed from the FTSE 100 index on 29 November given the extent of the recent fall in the stock price. Key upside risks include the return to a positive trend in volume growth in both SA and Switzerland and a faster recovery in the Abu Dhabi operations.

It could be tempting to buy Mediclinic after the 34% fall YTD, but we believe it is still not that cheap on our revised forecasts (we now use spot FX rates for our forecasts and valuation). With its two key markets – Switzerland and SA – likely to continue to face strong headwinds, it is difficult to be bullish. As for the UAE, the recovery story will be hampered by ongoing capacity expansion. Mediclinic is not an obvious choice amongst CEEMEA Healthcare names, in our opinion; even for those who have to be in SA, some of the other healthcare and consumer names offer a more attractive value proposition. Hold.

Subdued growth in both Switzerland and SA in the short to medium term In Switzerland, the structural shift in the market with the outmigration of care trend and insurance mix change, investment costs associated with the Hirslanden 2020 strategic program, adverse upcoming regulations, and the recent acquisition of Linde Hospital have all resulted in a subdued revenue performance and pressure on margins. In SA, we expect the continued weak macro environment, strong competition, funder interventions, and unfavorable shift in the case mix to continue to pressure volumes and margins.

Recovery story in the UAE hampered by new capacity coming online in FY20 In the UAE there are three key capital projects (with aggregate capex investments of AED845m / c.GBP175m) that should come online in H1-FY20: a new 188-bed Parkview hospital in Dubai, expansion and oncology center at the existing Airport Road hospital in Abu Dhabi, and refurbishment of the ground and mezzanine floors at Khalifa Street hospital. So, starting in FY19, these capital projects should have a 100-400bps impact on margins, with the peak of the impact to be felt in FY20, according to management.

Valuation We continue to value Mediclinic using a SOTP EV/EBITDA relative valuation method: we use a different EV/EBITDA exit multiple for Mediclinic’s three key markets (SA, Switzerland, and the UAE) and the market value of its investment in Spire Healthcare. Please see details page 4.



22 November 2017

Oil & Gas

Gazprom

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

Oil & GasPrice at 21 Nov 2017 (RUB) 132.49

Price Target (RUB) 115.00

52-week range (RUB) 158.95 - 115.35

Company UpdateEmerging EuropeRussia

Company

Gazprom

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker

GAZP.MM GAZP RX MCX GAZP

Date22 November 2017

Parent-company investments may growby 6.3% yoy in 2018Report suggests parent-company may spend RUB1,200bn on 2018 investmentsAccording to Interfax, Gazprom’s management board may propose a 2018investment programme of the parent company at a level of RUB1,200bn(USD20.3bn using the current FX rate). This will be discussed at the managementmeeting on 23 November. The proposed 2018 capex compares to the final versionof the 2017 parent-company investment programme approved last month ofRUB1,129bn, and implies a growth of 6.3% yoy. See Figure 1 for details. On top ofthe parent-company capex, Gazprom group spends on investments of GazpromNeft, electricity generators and JVs.

Focus on the group capexWhile the parent-company capex guidance provides an important indication ofthe Gazprom capex trends, our focus is on the company’s consolidated capex.At the 2Q17 results conference call in August, management announced that thetotal group capex for 2017 would be at a level of RUB1,581bn (excluding VAT). AtUSD26.7bn (using the current FX rate), the 2017 capex guidance is 14% aboveour estimate. See Gazprom - Valuation upgrade on improved CF outlook but weremain neutral published on 30 August for details.

Gazprom's guidance implies a 15% yoy consolidated capex growth in 2017Based on Gazprom's 2017 guidance, we note that the company may increase itscapex by 15% yoy versus 2016 in rouble terms. On our estimates, the capex willremain nearly unchanged. That being said, some of the projects (including theEastern Gas Programme - gas fields and Power of Siberia pipeline, Nord Stream-2pipeline under the Baltic Sea, and Turkish Stream pipeline under the Black Sea)are yet to receive a big chunk of their total capex. They are due to be launchedat about the same time, towards 2020, which implies that Gazprom's peak ofthe capex cycle will extend towards the end of this decade. Consequently, weexpect Gazprom's capex to stay at around the current level in the peak period (atUSD22-24bn p.a.) and subside only in 2020. We see Gazprom's annual capitalspending at essentially maintenance level of USD14-16bn p.a. in 2020-25.

During the call in August, management was asked if the full-year 2017 guidanceof RUB1,581bn implies capex of RUB930bn in 2H17 (as RUB651.5bn was spentin 1H17). Management explained that the bulk of capex is indeed spent in 3Q and4Q. Therefore, capex may accelerate significantly in 2H17, by 43% hoh. This mayaggravate the problem of cash generation during the period. We note, however,that last year the capex distribution was not necessarily skewed towards 2H:in 1H16, the company's capex amounted to RUB723.5bn and in 2H16 it was

Pavel Kushnir

Research Analyst

+971-4-361 1732


Gazprom MICEX Index (Rebased)

2015 2016 2017100

150

200

250


Absolute 4.6 14.3 -11.4

MICEX Index 4.1 11.3 4.7Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 6.7

ROA (%) 4.4

Net debt/equity (x) 18.9

Book value/share (USD) 9.3

Price/book (x) 0.2

Net interest cover (x) –

EBIT margin (%) 13.8Source: Deutsche Bank



22 November 2017

Mining

Sibanye-Stillwater

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

MiningPrice at 21 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 18.07

Price Target (ZAR) 15.50

52-week range (ZAR) 35.40 - 14.75

Breaking NewsSub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa

Company

Sibanye-Stillwater


SGLJ.J SGL SJ JNB SGLJ


Sibanye-Stillwater finds a neat solutionto surface processingSibanye-Stillwater to take stake in DRD Gold, in which WRTRP to be developedSibanye-Stillwater will take a 38% stake in DRD Gold (NR,CP-R 4.96 ps), currentlyworth R1.3bn and with the option to increase this to 50.1% within 24 months, inexchange for selected surface processing assets including TSFs (tailings storagefacilities), land and two gold processing plants at Driefontein (DP2 and DP3)and a pilot plant; which combined have disclosed probable gold reserves of3.8Moz and probable uranium reserves of 42.9Mlb. We view this as a sensibledeal: it effectively puts the West Rand Tailings Retreatment Project (WRTRP)into specialised surface miner DRD Gold where it can be developed in a phasedapproach. DRD taking over the development also means the surface projects willtake up little management time for Sibanye-Stillwaters. It also exchanges thesereserves for a marketable security (in the form of DRD Gold shares), therebymaking the value of the surface assets clearer to the market. The transaction isexpected by management to close in 2Q18. A joint Sibanye-Stillwater and DRDGold presentation will be held this morning at 10h00 (CAT) at the JSE Auditorium(located at One Exchange square, Gwen Lane, Sandton). Dial-in and webcastdetails: +27 11 535 600 http://themediaframe.eu/links/sibanye171122.html

Development of the WRTRP within DRD Gold: phased approachPhase 1, must be completed within 24 months of transaction close, whilecommissioning expected to take 12 months, and includes the following work:

■ Upgrading Driefontein 2 and 3 (DP2 and DP3) from 315ktpm to400-600ktpm and refurbishment of CIL treatment plants at DP2 and DP3

■ Constructing and upgrading relevant pump stations and pipelines

■ Evaluating all the TSFs through the pilot plant at DP3 within 24 months

Sibanye-Stillwater expects Phase 1 to require minimal upfront capex and tobe cash flow generative, however these cash flows are marked for furtherdevelopment phases. Phase 2 envisions a central processing plant (CPP)processing a minimum of 1Mtpm of tailing and developing a regional tailingsstorage facility (RTSF) with the associated pipeline infrastructure within anadditional 24 month period.

Conditions precedent: DRD shareholders to waive mandatory take-out offerDRD shareholders have to approve the transaction and pass the requiredresolutions, including those which would usually require Sibanye-Stillwater to

Patrick Mann, CFA

Research Analyst

+27-11-775-7282


Sibanye-Stillwater FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '170

50

100


Absolute 6.3 -6.4 -45.8

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 5.6 10.4 21.0Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) -23.9

ROA (%) -7.8

Net debt/equity (%) 101.1

Book value/share (ZAR) 11.1

Price/book (x) 1.6

Net interest cover (x) 1.2

EBIT margin (%) 7.8Source: Deutsche Bank



22 November 2017

Oil & Gas

GEMs Oil & Gas Valuation

Oil & Gas Industry Update

Emerging EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Industry

GEMs Oil & GasValuation


Monthly update

Valuation, profitability and share price performance comparisonsThe main aim of this publication is to compare oil, gas and OFS companies inthe CEEMEA region with their global peers. The report also gives investors anopportunity to compare valuations, profitability and price performance acrossmarkets, and view current valuations against the backdrop of a continuedimprovement in crude oil prices.

Energy stocks show little reaction to recent crude oil price strengthThe Brent crude oil price has now firmly stabilised at above USD60/bbl, followingnearly 10% growth in the past month. Interestingly, global energy stocks havevirtually not reacted to this very positive development. CEEMEA stocks on averageadded less than 1%, while US/Canada, Europe/UK and Asian energy stocks wereon average flat during the period. Only Petrobras in LatAm moved materially as itlost 3% in the past month of the very strong crude. The stocks' performance in thepast three months is more reflective of the changing crude oil price fundamentals(Brent was up by 22% during the period). US/Canada stocks led the rally as theyadded on average 17% (however, they collectively were the biggest losers YTDwith a 20% negative performance). Petrobras added almost 15%, Asian stocks9%, and CEEMEA more than 8%, while Europe/UK stocks lagged with just a 5%average positive performance. We believe that while the energy stocks had toreflect the strong crude oil price growth (as they did in the past three months),the risks on that front persist and do not provide new reasons for optimism (asthe performance in the past month has demonstrated).

Crude oil price - supply stands at the readyIn his report of today, Taking stock before OPEC, Michael Hsueh from DB'sCommodities Team highlights risks to the crude oil price from the supply side. Oilprices have been free to move higher in part because of signs of restraint in USsupply. Michael sees this as justified, together with lower output from Iraq andMexico, but 1Q18 oversupply should eventually take some wind out of the sails ofthe current rally. Moreover, whether the new mood in the US is the result of a newcorporate credo or simply lagged WTI prices is uncertain. We should have ouranswer over the next three to four months as we watch for a moderate recoveryin US drilling activity, but for now we should remind ourselves that tight oil isnot out for the count. The US tight oil resource is both extensive and economicat a relatively low cost, and cost reinflation has been limited so far. In addition,OPEC stands at the ready to gradually bring back shuttered volumes of 1.2mbd,along with further non-OPEC volumes. We see these two forms of latent supplystanding as a bulwark against much higher prices in the medium term. Regarding

Pavel Kushnir

Research Analyst

+971-4-361 1732

Top picks

Transneft (TRNF_p.MM),RUB180,500.00 BuySource: Deutsche Bank



Rating

Buy Global Emerging Markets

Brazil

Aviation

Company

GOL S.A. Alert Date

22 November 2017

Forecast Change

Adjusting forecast and PT to reflect change in ADS ratio

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker GOL.N GOL US NYS GOL

ADR Ticker ISIN GOL

Price at 22 Nov 2017 (USD) 8.91

Target price 11.00

52-week range 32.90 - 11.03

Michael Linenberg

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-9254

[email protected]

Catherine O'Brien

Research Analyst

(+1) 212 250-8949

[email protected]

Matt Fallon

Research Associate

(+1) 212 250-7161

[email protected]

Key changes

TP 27.00 to 11.00 ↓ -59.3%

EPS (BRL) 0.95 to 0.92 ↓ -2.7%

Revenue (BRLm)

10,303 to 10,299 ↓ -0.0%


Adjusting forecast and PT to reflect change in ADS ratio As a result of a ratio change effective November 21, 2017 (from 1 ADS = 5 preferred shares to 1 ADS = 2 preferred shares), we are changing our 2017, 2018 and 2019 EPADS estimates from $1.40 to $0.55, $1.15 to $0.45, and $2.05 to $0.80, respectively. Additionally, our 12-month PT goes from $27 to $11. Note that there is no change to the underlying economics of the company, these estimate changes are purely a result of the ADS ratio change.

Our 12-month PT of $11 is derived by applying a 8.0x EV/EBITDAR multiple to our 2018 EBITDAR forecast, which compares to the historical Latam airline range of 6x – 8x. Fuel price volatility is a key risk for GOL; we estimate every 10% move in fuel, ceteris paribus, impacts our $0.45 EPADS estimate for 2018 by $0.40.

*The current price reflects the interim price on November 22, 2017.

0bed7b6cf11c



22 November 2017

Retail

Cencosud

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

RetailPrice at 20 Nov 2017 (CLP) 1,701.00

Target price 2,000.00

52-week range 2,080.00 -1,701.00

ResultsLatin AmericaChile

Company

Cencosud


CEN.SN CENCOSUD CI SGO CEN


3Q17 results: shopping centers andfinancial services only positivesNot as bad as prior quarters, but still lagging behind expectationsSound and apparently consistent results at the financial business and malls werenot enough to offset weak results at the core Chilean supermarket business andstill poor results at most other operations, due to feeble consumption, increasedpromotional activity and rising expenses in some markets. Seasonal cash burnand reduced EBITDA caused another hike in indebtedness level to 4.2x (non-banking net debt / adjusted EBITDA), potentially asking for additional asset saleor the IPO of the mall business. Net sales were flat y/y (up 5% y/y in constantcurrency), 3% below DBe. Adjusted EBITDA was down 4%, somewhat better thanQ1 and Q2, but 10% below DBe. Maintain Hold.

Stock trades at 8.4x forward EV/EBITDA, large discount to Latam peersRestructuring keeps on going, offering improved efficiency, but an unfavorablemacro and a fragile competitive positioning in some markets have been causingan unfavorable earnings dynamics, pressuring its forward EV/EBITDA downwardsto 8.4x, a 20-25% discount to historical level and to peers. In our view, onlyextraordinary events such as the potential IPO of the mall business or the potentialsale of the Brazilian business could be strong enough to drive a more constructiveapproach in the short run.

Supermarkets (42% of EBITDA) – Weak results, except for ChileAdjusted EBITDA fell 13% y/y, not as much as the prior three quarters when itwas down 19-25% y/y, but still 18% below DBe. As well as in prior quarters,weak results are mostly credited to the feeble sales performance in Brazil,Colombia and Peru (SSS down 6.7% y/y, 3.3% and up 0.5%, respectively),intensified promotional activity, reduced fixed expenses dilution, higher logistics,utility and labor costs in some markets, and severance costs associated withthe restructuring of the store managers in Peru (mg down 141bps y/y). Aswell as recent quarters, Chilean supermarkets, which account for 76% ofthe adjusted EBITDA of the supermarket business, have been showing moreresilience than supermarkets in other regions, due to a more favorable economicenvironment, Cencosud's stronger competitive positioning, and efficiency gains.Despite intensified promotions in the Chilean market, which contributed to 3.8%SSS expansion y/y, fixed expenses dilution, centralized bakery at Santa Isabel,and energy saving projects backed 6% expansion y/y in adjusted EBITDA.

Home improvement (12% of EBITDA) – New WMS weighed in ChileAdjusted EBITDA dropped 16% y/y, not as bad as the 23% and 34% yearlycontraction in Q1 and Q2, but 23% below DBe. Argentina, which is Cencosud's

Marcel Moraes

Research Analyst

+1-904-271-2470

Kaila Lopez

Research Associate

+1-904-645-1197


Cencosud Chile Stock Mkt Select (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '171000

1500

2000

2500


Absolute -10.5 -11.2 -13.5

Chile Stock Mkt Select -8.1 -0.8 21.3Source: Deutsche Bank



North America

United States

Industrials

Metals & Mining

Periodical

Metals & Mining Alert

Date

22 November 2017

Periodical

Daily prices and news: US affirms duties on wire rod imports

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Jorge Beristain, CFA Chris Terry

Research Analyst Research Analyst

(+1) 203 863-2381 (+1) 212 250-5434

[email protected] [email protected]

Jeremy Kliewer Sathish Kasinathan

Research Associate Research Associate

(+1) 904 527-6532 (+1) 203 863-2358

[email protected] [email protected]

Corinne Blanchard

Research Associate

(+1) 904 645-2360

[email protected]

Focus stocks

Barrick (ABX.N),USD13.92 Buy Price Target USD19.00

Nucor (NUE.N),USD55.98 Buy Price Target USD70.00

Pan American Silver (PAAS.OQ),USD15.20 Buy Price Target USD20.00

Reliance Steel & Alum. (RS.N),USD76.25 Buy Price Target USD95.00

Teck (TECK.N),USD22.42 Buy Price Target USD27.00

Vale (VALE.N),USD10.46 Buy Price Target USD12.00


Price performance %WTD %YTD

3M LME aluminum -1.0% 23.0%

3M LME copper 1.9% 24.8%

3M LME lead 1.9% 22.9%

3M LME molybdenum 0.0% 5.0%

3M LME nickel 2.5% 18.5%

3M LME zinc 0.3% 23.8%

Comex gold -1.1% 11.1%

Comex silver -2.0% 6.6%

China HRC 0.4% 12.7%

SHFE rebar 2.0% 34.3%

Iron ore (62% Fe) -0.2% -20.8%

Coking coal, FOB Aus 2.5% -14.3%

Freight (BCI) 3.2% 135.0%

Brent -0.2% 10.1%

WTI 0.5% 5.8%

Natgas -2.6% -19.0%

Thermal (Newcastle) -0.7% 8.5%

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.94 (-0.2%), copper $3.13 (+1.2%), lead $1.12 (+0.8%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.38 (+1.8%); zinc $1.45 (+0.9%); Precious (/oz): gold $1,281 (+0.3%), silver $16.97 (+0.3%); Steel (/mt): China HRC $627 (+0.6%), SHFE Rebar $563 (+2.0%), MB Scrap Index $307 (+0.5%); Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $63 (-1.5%), coking coal (/mt) $194 (+2.3%), freight (BCI) 3,255 (+1.3%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $62.57 (+0.6%), WTI (/bbl) $56.83 (+1.3%), natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.02 (-1.0%), thermal coal (/t) $96 (-0.4%).

US Department of Commerce (DOC) affirms final determinations in antidumping duty investigations of carbon and alloy steel wire rod imports from Belarus, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. DOC determined that wire rod imports were sold at 84-757% less than fair value. DOC has instructed Customs and Border Patrol to collect cash deposits on Russian wire rod imports retroactively for 90 days prior to preliminary determination (9/5) due to critical circumstances. Nucor was one of the petitioners. In 2016, wire rod imports from the 3 countries totaled ~$50m. (SBB)

South Africa’s parliament will miss a December target for passing key changes to mineral resource laws. The amendments, which are vital for greater investor certainty, were initially passed by the parliament in 2014 but sent back to lawmakers by the President due to concerns over their constitutionality. Bill is now being considered by National Council of Provinces and should be passed by Jan or Feb. Final signing by President will be required to become law. (Reuters)

Glencore expects nickel’s 2017 deficit at 170kt and 2018 at 140kt, largest in years and higher than market estimates. The miner expects a 9% increase in stainless steel demand in 2017 to tighten the market. Additionally, a strong lift in nickel consumption from electric cars will drive demand, but not materially until 2020. Global nickel stockpiles are currently at 640kt (vs. peak of 900kt a few years ago). (Mining Weekly)

US steel import permits for November through 11/21 total 2.0m st. If adjusted to a full month, permits would be 2.8m st (+1% YoY) vs. October’s 3.1m st. Cold-rolled sheets (-79kt, -36%) appear to decrease the most MoM, followed by rebar (-57kt, -51%) and oil country tubular goods (-38kt, -12%), whereas, rail (+32kt, +1224%) permits are increasing. (US Import Administration)

Nucor announces plans to build a rebar micro mill in Sedalia, 90 miles from Kansas City. Expected capex is $250m, with start-up in 2019, provided final approvals and permits are received. Strategic mill location gives Nucor a cost advantage over other domestic steel producers, per CEO. (Company)

News reports suggest Rio Tinto, Wealth Minerals and Chinese private equity firm GSR Capital are considering a bid for a stake in Chilean lithium producer, SQM. Canada’s PotashCorp must divest its 32% stake in SQM for its merger with Agrium to go through. (Reuters)



22 November 2017

EM Daily

Emerging EuropeGlobalSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging Markets

EM DailyDate22 November 2017

Inflows dry up, but no major outflowsyetTo watchARS: Economic Activity Index (Sep'17,YoY). Previously 4.30%. DB expects 2.00%.BRL: Current account (Oct'17). Previously USD434mn. DB expects USD-600mn.BRL: IBGE CPI IPCA - 15 (Nov'17,MoM). Previously 0.34%. DB expects 0.30%.MXN: Retail sales (INEGI) (Sep'17,MoM). Prev. -0.20%. DB expects 1.50%.ZAR: MPC meeting(Nov'17). Prev. 6.75%. DB expects 6.75%.

Key recent developmentZAR: CPI( Oct'17, YoY). Above expectations at 4.8%.

Figure 1: FX Best/Worst Performers

0.92%

0.83%

0.72%

0.72%

0.00%

-0.03%

-0.04%

-0.15%

MXN

RUB

ZAR

PLN

HKD

PEN

INR

RON

Weekly Return (%)Weekly Return (%)


Figure 2: CDS Best/WorstPerformers

-0.10%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.16%

0.19%

0.30%

0.41%

CZ

CL

TH

IL

CR

BG

ZA

TR

Daily Return (%)


EM FX - EM Flows and Risk Sentiment: Inflows dry up, but no major outflowsyetWe provide an update of our EM Flow Indicator, a tool to track flows into emergingmarkets that combines normalized weekly flow data from two sources – IIF andEPFR – and incorporates both local currency debt and equity flows. We alsoupdate our complementary EM Risk Monitor, which is a multi-dimensional, EM-specific measure of risk sentiment. The EM Flow Indicator shows that inflowsto EM have dried up in recent weeks. The weekly indicator has moved close tozero (flat) from positive (inflows). However, we are not in significantly negativeterritory yet, indicating that major EM outflows have still not materialized. Alack of substantial outflows despite the EM sell-off suggests that the relativelyconstructive longer-term view on EM has not changed, and is aided by the robustglobal growth outlook; investors have been protecting profits and lightening riskinto year-end, rather than making room for redemptions. The EM Risk Monitor –an EM-specific measure of risk sentiment – has moved deep into risk negativeterritory. Therefore, it clearly indicates that risk sentiment around EM has turnedsince the summer, from extremely positive to extremely negative. However, it isalso worth noting that there is evidence of mean reversion of sentiment from suchstretched levels; as the chart shows, in past instances risk sentiment has tendedto improve from such 'extreme' negative levels.

South Africa: Inflation declines for now, but upside risks aheadSouth Africa October inflation printed in line with consensus forecasts at 0.3%MoM and 4.8% YoY (DBe slightly lower at 4.7% YoY). The decline in housing costsand transportation costs led the fall in overall prices on the month in October. InYoY terms, continued decline in food price inflation as well as a smaller increasein petrol led the decline in inflation in October, as expected. In our view, risksto inflation are still on the upside. We expect SARB to hold policy rates this

Drausio Giacomelli

Strategist

+1-212-250-7355

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

+1-212-250-2524

Jed Evans

Strategist

+1-212-250-8605



22 November 2017

FX Daily

GlobalLatin America

Foreign Exchange

FX DailyDate22 November 2017

MXN: Is no news good news?

NAFTA renegotiation: No end in sightThe fifth round of NAFTA renegotiation talks concluded yesterday in Mexico City.As we had anticipated last week as the Mexico round got underway last week(see EM Daily, November 17th) negotiators made no significant progress in anyof the issues that are perceived to be critical for a successful renegotiation of thetreaty. Our view on the feasibility of a NAFTA agreement has not changed and webelieve the likelihood of an amended treaty being ratified ahead any time beforeOctober of 2018 is diminishing quickly. And while not our base case scenario,we believe that the likelihood of a unilateral US withdrawal from the agreementdepends mostly on the future of the Trump Administration's legislative agendaand tax reform in particular. We thus think that the risks of a withdrawal from thetreaty are relatively small as long as the tax bill remains "alive" in either chamberof commerce. In this context we remain bearish MXN and continue to like beinglong BRL/MXN or buying 2m USD/MXN calls cheapened with KOs at 21 (see EMMonthly: Threading the needle).

A promising start to the Mexico City roundLate last week some commentators became relatively optimistic regarding thelikely outcome of talks that were about to take place in Mexico City round. Inparticular, while the peso sold off as soon as negotiations began the currencythen recovered when Mexico's Minister of Commerce Idelfonso Guajardo statedhis willingness to accept adding mandatory revisions every 5 years to the treaty.

The headline seems to have been interpreted as a signal that Mexico wouldconcede to the US and accept the introduction of a "5 year sunset clause" toNAFTA,. That also suggested the Mexican government could have been gettingnervous regarding a protracted negotiation and willing to accept most of the USproposals as long as that lead to a quick resolution. Yet this interpretation wasnot correct. Guajardo had in fact explicitly stated that Mexico would not acceptan automatic dissolution of the treaty if the periodic revisions did not yield anagreement. This was a crucial difference with the US–proposed sunset clause asGuajardo's proposal was in effect not too different from the current configurationof NAFTA in which any country can demand a revision at any time. And thus whatseemed to be an early sign signal of progress was most likely a clever maneuverby Minister Guajardo to portray the US delegation as the party most unwilling tonegotiate.

Also early during the round the USTR published an updated document detailingtheir objectives in renegotiating NAFTA. The document was intended as an updateto the one the USTR had presented to Congress last June. The new version

Sebastian A. Brown

Strategist

+1-212-250-8191

0bed7b6cf11c



22 November 2017

COFFEE report

Global Foreign Exchange

COFFEE reportDate22 November 2017

Data from 21-Nov-2017

USD buying pared over the week against most G10 and EM

Selling of G10 currencies against the dollar has been less consistent than inprevious weeks. AUD, CAD, and CHF continued to see pronounced net selling.Net selling of JPY and NOK slowed materially, however, and option flows in SEKflipped from significant net selling to marginal net buying again. EUR and GBPcontinue to be net sold at the margin.

Figure 1: Cumulative returns

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar 14 Nov 14 Jul 15 Mar 16 Nov 16 Jul 17

Following investors

Sharpe ratio=1.18

Ann. returns=12.9%

Source: Deutsche Bank. This strategy buys the currency withthe highest DBSVACCY value (net investor buying) and sells thecurrency with the most negative DBSVACCY value. Returns arebased on weekly rebalancing and are net of transaction costs andcarry.

In EM, KRW and SGD are the only two currencies that have been net boughtagainst the dollar. On the bearish side, ZAR continues to be the most net soldcurrency against the dollar and net selling of TRY and MXN has increased further.In the remaining EM currencies the market has reduced its downside exposure.

Data covers this week's close as of Tuesday, 21-Nov-17. The cover charts showFX investor buying and selling flows by calculating the difference between callover put volumes transacted in each currency over the last four weeks. A positiveor negative value implies net buying or selling of the underlying currency versusthe USD. The indicators are available on Bloomberg as DBSVACCY Index. Forexample, to access the ticker for EUR (CCY) use DBSVAEUR Index. For more detailon the construction methodology see the Appendix.

Figure 2: G10 FX option market flows Figure 3: EM FX option market flows

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

USD SEK GBP JPY NOK EUR CHF AUD NZD CAD

This week

Last week

Buying

Selling-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

KRW SGD CNH PLN RUB ILS MXN TRY ZAR

This week

Last week

Buying

Selling

Source: Deutsche Bank. Data as of Tuesday, shows cumulative 4-week buying/selling Source: Deutsche Bank. Data as of Tuesday, shows cumulative 4-week buying/selling

Robin Winkler

Strategist

+44-20-754-71841

George Saravelos

Strategist

+44-20-754-79118

Rohini Grover

Research Associate

+91-22-6181-1977



Europe Periodical

Consensus Earnings Trends


November 2017: 2018 earnings get head start from Asia upgrades

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Wolf von Rotberg

Strategist

(+44) 20 754-52801 [email protected]

Sebastian Raedler, Ph.D

Strategist (+44) 20 754-18169 [email protected]

Tom Pearce, CFA

Strategist (+44) 20 754-16568

[email protected]

Andreas Bruckner

Strategist

(+44) 20 754-18171 [email protected]

Asia upgrades drive global 2018 EPS higher

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

MSCI EMAsia

Topix MSCI EM MSCI ACWorld

S&P 500 Stoxx 600

1m revisions to 2018 EPS %

Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank

In-line Q3 earnings in Europe, driven by energy

7.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Ener

gy

Bank

s

Telco

Mat

eria

ls

Indu

stria

ls

Con

stap

les

Tech

Utili

ties

Div

fin

Con

disc HC

Insu

ranc

e

Stox

x 600

Cons

ensu

s

Contribution to Stoxx 600 Q3 EPS growth after 95% of reports

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank

Global 2018 consensus earnings rise on the back of strong Asia upgrades Global earnings for 2018 have been revised higher (+0.3%) for the third consecutive month on the back of strong upgrades to Asia EPS. Japan 2018 EPS have been upgraded by +1.3% while EM Asia have been revised up by +1.3%, pushing global EM upgrades to +1.0%. In DM, the S&P500 (+0.1%) saw marginal upward revisions while DM Europe (Stoxx600 -0.3%) was the only major global region which was revised lower. Consensus is now expecting 9.0% growth for Stoxx600 EPS in 2018, below the S&P500 (11.3%), but ahead of the Topix (4.7%). MSCI EM EPS are expected to grow by 12.6%.

European country revisions on the weaker side Among major European indices, IBEX35 2018 EPS (-0.5%) saw the largest downgrades, ahead of consensus EPS for the DAX (-0.3%) and the the CAC40 (-0.3%). Consensus expectations for the FTSE MIB and the FTSE100 remained flat over the month while SMI EPS (+0.1%) were revised higher marginally. In terms of 2018 EPS growth, consensus is now forecasting 17.1% for the FTSE MIB and 15.7% for the SMI, ahead of the DAX (10.3%), the IBEX35 (8.5%), the CAC40 (7.2%) and the FTSE100 (6.4%).

European sector revisions led by resources Among Stoxx 600 sectors, basic resources (+2.4%) and oil & gas (+2.0%) saw the largest upgrades to 2018 earnings ahead of autos (+1.0%), insurance (+0.6%) and retail (+0.4%). Defensives were weak with health care (-1.2%), telecoms (-0.8%), P&H goods (-0.4%), utilities (-0.2%) all seeing downgrades while food & bev earnings were flat over the month. Among cyclicals, chemicals (-1.6%), tech (-1.5%), media (-0.9%) saw large downgrades.

European earnings normalization continues in Q3 After strong double-digit growth in the first two quarters of 2017, earnings growth normalized in Q3 2017. At 7.6% yoy, it was in line with consensus expectations, while the gross beat ratio at 51% came in below the long-term average of 54%. Energy contributed the majority to annual EPS growth (4.4 percentage points) with insurance being the largest drag (-3.9 percentage points). Both sectors have been heavily affected by the severe hurricane season in the US. Energy benefitted from refining outages in the US while insurance was hit by large weather-related claims. Banks saw a solid season with two thirds of companies beating. The quality of banks beats, however, was low, largely driven by lower provisions rather than NII growth.

Insider buying remains subdued Insider selling rebounded and is now close to its long term average while insider buying remain subdued in Europe. This resulted in net buying falling. Among countries Denmark and Sweden saw the most companies with insider buying, while P&H goods and banks saw the most buying among sectors.

Consensus-implied trading strategy Our back-tested consensus-implied trading strategy suggests holding the following companies this month: Aroundtown, Playtech, Rubis, Melrose and replacing United Internet with Just Eat.



Emerging Markets Turkey

Trade Recommendation

Credit Sovereigns


Turkey - Credit Retracement on a Hike

Rebecca Klausen

Strategist

(+44) 20 754-55173

[email protected]

Running out of band-aids Turkey’s FX and inflation numbers have experienced big spikes this autumn and the (geo)political newsflow has only served to worsen this situation. Against this backdrop, our local economics team was in Ankara Monday and Tuesday and left with the impression that the Central Bank is running out of options to stabilize the currency away from a meaningful rate hike. If you believe further FX weakness as levels break 4.00 would serve as a trigger for the CBRT to act, this piece recommends how to position for that as a credit investor.

CDS Valuation Unusually, CDS has caught up with the move in FX since the CDS roll date and thus does not look like the poor cousin of doing the reversal trade directly via FX. Also, although Turkey CDS itself does not look extremely wide vs. its own history, when considering the widening versus other BB credits in the region the current move is noteworthy. Market positioning is also short Turkey risk and thus the trade should show asymmetrical payoff in the case of good news.

CDS has kept up well with the FX move since the roll Turkey vs. Russia CDS

Source: Deutsche Bank Source: Deutsche Bank

Target entry and exit levels This trade is intrinsically linked to FX, so trade timing is dependent on seeing further weakness in the FX market. We assume only a move in USDTRY above 4 would trigger action from the CBRT and thus target an entry point for the CDS of 220bp or wider if USDTRY breaks 4. We target an upside of 20-25bp and would use a 7bp stop-loss for this trade as it could move quickly wider.

Potential risks to the trade Speculation about potential political and economic consequences from the Zarrab court case could cause CDS to widen. However, the hearing has been postponed until 4th December, and we don’t think the FX market will wait 2 weeks to push the CBRT to act. Another potential risk is political resistance if the CBRT concludes it needs to hike. A third scenario is one where a hike materialises but falls short of market expectations and has no effect on USDTRY (much like the 25bp “hike” Tuesday).



Emerging Markets

Economics Foreign Exchange FX Spot


EM FX

EM Flows and Risk Sentiment: Inflows dry up, but no major outflows yet

Gautam Kalani, PhD

Strategist

(+44) 20 754-57066

[email protected]

Ankit Jain

Research Associate

(+91) 22 6181-1634

[email protected]

Hongtao Jiang

Strategist

(+1) 212 250-2524

[email protected]

In this report, we provide an update of our EM Flow Indicator, a tool to track flows into emerging markets that combines normalized weekly flow data from two sources – IIF and EPFR – and incorporates both local currency debt and equity flows. We also update our complementary EM Risk Monitor, which is a multi-dimensional, EM-specific measure of risk sentiment.

The EM Flow Indicator (chart below) shows that inflows to EM have dried up in recent weeks. The weekly indicator has moved close to zero (flat) from positive (inflows). However, we are not in significantly negative territory yet, indicating that major EM outflows have still not materialized. A lack of substantial outflows despite the EM sell-off suggests that the relatively constructive longer-term view on EM has not changed, and is aided by the robust global growth outlook; investors have been protecting profits and lightening risk into year-end, rather than making room for redemptions.

Note that the indicator captures flows normalized by the standard deviation, with values greater than +0.5 indicating sizable inflows and values less than -0.5 indicating sizable outflows.

EM Flow Indicator: latest weekly reading shows inflows into EM have dried up,

but there are no major outflows yet

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

no

rmal

ize

d f

low

s (1

2m

)

EM Flow Indicator - debt + equity EM inflows

EM outflows

Source: Deutsche Bank, EPFR, IIF, Bloomberg Finance LP. Note: We consider values > +0.5 to indicate significant inflows and values < -0.5 to indicate significant outflows. Data as of 15 Nov 2017, and weekly data captures Thu-Wed flows.

The EM Risk Monitor – an EM-specific measure of risk sentiment – has moved deep into risk negative territory. Therefore, it clearly indicates that risk sentiment around EM has turned since the summer, from extremely positive to extremely negative. However, it is also worth noting that there is evidence of mean reversion of sentiment from such stretched levels; as the chart below shows, in past instances risk sentiment has tended to improve from such ‘extreme’ negative levels.



22 November 2017

EMEA Snap

Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa

Economics

EMEA SnapDate22 November 2017

South Africa: Inflation declines for now,but upside risks aheadSouth Africa October inflation printed in line with consensus forecasts at 0.3%MoM and 4.8% YoY (DBe slightly lower at 4.7% YoY).The smaller monthly increase in prices in October compared to the 0.5% MoMincrease in the previous month, has translated to a 0.3pps drop in annual inflation.Annual inflation, has thereby resumed its declining trend, after two months ofincrease and we believe it will reach 4.3% YoY by year-end. Core inflation has alsodecelerated in October by 0.1pps to 4.5% YoY, in line with our forecasts, to postthe lowest reading since July-2012.

Decline in housing costs and transportation costs led the fall in overall prices onthe month in October.Housing costs inflation has declined by 0.8pps to 0.1% MoM, led mainly by aslowdown in rents growth. Inflation in transportation costs has decelerated, alsoby 0.8pps, to 0.9% MoM on the back of lower inflation in petrol prices, personalvehicle operation costs and public transportation charges. On the other hand,food price inflation has jumped to 0.8% MoM, the first positive reading in threemonths, with almost all subcomponents posting higher gains in October.

In YoY terms, continued decline in food price inflation as well as a smallerincrease in petrol led the decline in inflation in October, as expected.Inflation in transportation costs has slowed on the back of a lower monthlyincrease in fuel prices as well as personal vehicle operating costs, falling to 5.4%YoY in October (from 5.6% YoY previously). Annual inflation in food prices havealso declined to a 23 month low of 5.3% YoY on the back of a higher base, despitethe monthly increase in prices. However, a lower base in housing costs, meantthat despite the monthly fall, annual inflation has increased to 5.1% YoY (from4.9% YoY).

Risks to inflation on the upside.Headline inflation has been declining since April this year, led by lower food prices,a smaller increase in electricity tariffs than previously, a strengthening exchangerate and falling ULCs. Despite the spike in inflation in August and September,mainly due to higher housing costs and higher petrol prices, we expect inflationto decline further to 4.3% by year-end. However, risks to our inflation forecasts liefirmly to the upside for this year and in 2018. Credit downgrades in November andpotential outflows would impact core inflation via renewed currency depreciation.Inflation expectations remain higher than the headline and firmly anchored ataround 6%. House price indicators also show renewed upward momentum.Further risks stem from the request from Eskom to increase electricity tariffsfor 2018-19 by over 18.9% for direct customers and 26.9% for municipalities.The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) is expected to announce

Elina Ribakova

Chief Economist

+44-20-7547-1340

Twisha Roy

Research Associate



22 November 2017

US Economic Notes

North AmericaUnited States

Economics

US Economic NotesDate22 November 2017

What you need to know for the weekaheadMonday Release Forecast Previous Consensus

10:00 AM New Home Sales (Oct) 670k 667k 624k

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank

Commentary for Monday: There will be a deluge of data and Fedspeak this weekalong with a likely smattering of fiscal headlines as the full Senate is expected tovote on their version of tax reform. As Republican leadership can lose no morethan two votes, keep an eye out for Republican Senators with similar concerns,namely—the overall cost, distributional impact, and the repeal of the individualmandate. If the bill passes out of the Senate this week, it will likely pass alongparty lines. However, the real battles will take place during "conference," wherethe House and the Senate reconcile the details between their respective versions.Note also that the Senate Banking Committee will conduct its hearing for Fedchair nominee Jay Powell on Tuesday—which should go smoothly followed by fullSenate approval in the coming weeks. The main Fed-related event will be currentChair Yellen’s Wednesday testimony before the Joint Economic Committee (JEC).

Policy Speeches

NY Fed President Dudley speaks on US

economy after the crisis (7pm)

2017 Economic/Financial Projections

Real GDP growth: 2.5% Q4/Q4

2.2% Annual average

Core CPI: 1.6% Q4/Q4

Unemployment: 4.1%

Fed target rate: 1.38% yearend

Wednesday’s JEC testimony will be Yellen’s last appearance before Congress.While she is testifying on behalf of the FOMC, she may feel less restrained inconveying her own opinions. She is sure to get a few questions about tax reform,which we expect she will provide stock Fed answers to—i.e. fiscal policy isdetermined by Congress and the Fed’s actions will, as always, be informed by itsCongressional mandate of full employment and price stability. However, marketparticipants will be keen for any hints on how the Fed views the latest inflationdata after the October core CPI. In this respect, we expect Yellen to reinforcemarket expectations of a December rate hike. We would also not be surprisedif Yellen were to be queried about the Fed’s broader operating framework. Aswe detailed in the latest US Economics Perspectives “Fed policy framework: Isthe price (level) right?” several regional Presidents have raised the prospect ofchanges to the Fed’s broader operating principles in their speeches as well as inthe November FOMC minutes. To be sure, these discussions are very preliminaryand while Yellen may touch upon the merits of various options, this will be a long-term debate and no major changes are likely in the near-to-intermediate term.

Prior to Yellen, New York Fed President Dudley will speak with audience Q&A onMonday and Wednesday, about the evolution of the economy after the financialcrisis and the economic outlook, respectively. Also, San Francisco Fed PresidentJohn Williams (2018 voter) will give a keynote speech to an economic forecastingluncheon on Wednesday with audience Q&A. Given his recent comments on re-

Brett Ryan

Senior US Economist

+1-212-250-6294

Justin Weidner

Economist

+1-212-469-1679

Matthew Luzzetti, PhD

Senior Economist

+1-212-250-6161

0bed7b6cf11c



23 November 2017



Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Wednesday, 22 November

HU 08:00 Avg. gross wages (Sep), nsa -13.20%

ZA 08:00 CPI (Oct) 0.2% (4.7%) 0.5% (5.1%)

RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Nov) 0.10%

US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Nov), k 1,860.0k

US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov), k 240.0k 249.0k

Thursday, 23 November

BR 07:00 FGV CPI IPC-S (Nov) 0.30% 0.30%

BR 08:00 IBGE CPI IPCA - 15 (Nov) 0.30% 0.34%

BR 09:30 Current account - monthly (Oct), USD, m -USD600.0m USD434.0m

MX 11:00 Bi-weekly core CPI (Nov)

MX 11:00 Mexico Bi-weekly CPI (Nov)

MX 11:00 Retail sales (INEGI) (Sep) 1.50% -0.20%

IL 11:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 4.1%rate

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD426.4bn

TR 13:00 CBT FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD96.7bn

PL 13:00 M3(and money supply) (Oct), nsa -5.40%

ZA 13:00* SARB rate decision (Nov) 6.75%rate 6.75%rate

Friday, 24 November

BR 04:00 FIPE CPI weekly (Nov) 0.34%

RU 08:00 Money supply (Nov), RUB, tr, chg RUB9.3tr

RO 09:00 M2 (Oct) -12.30%

CL 09:00 PPI (Oct) -0.60%

PL 09:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 6.8%rate

Monday, 27 November

MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m

IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate

US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)



US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)



Tuesday, 28 November

BR 07:00 FGV Inflation IGP- M (Nov) 0.20% 0.20%

ZA 10:00 BER Business Confidence Index (Q4), Index 35

MX 11:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.6%rate 3.6%rate

US 15:00 Consumer Confidence (Nov), Index 125.9

US 15:00 Richmond Fed (Nov), Index 12




US 15:00 Consumer Confidence (Nov), Index 125.9

US 15:00 Richmond Fed (Nov), Index 12





23 November 2017



Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)

22-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 61,532.14 na 0.2 3.1 2.8 29.1 24.7 39.3 25.4

EMEA MSCI EMEA 548.59 na -0.3 2.8 4.1 12.2 9.4 27.1 9.6

LatAm MSCI LatAm 83,698.63 na -0.2 3.3 -3.1 16.4 15.8 17.6 14.0

Asia MSCI Asia 939.28 na 0.4 3.1 3.6 35.6 31.4 50.0 36.7

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 1,046.61 28 0.4 0.3 0.4 35.4 9.4 -0.4 -49.8

Greece ASE 720.13 60 0.2 0.1 -3.9 25.4 -32.0 -22.2 -88.2

Hungary BSE 40,131.37 59 2.0 3.6 0.9 39.0 110.5 85.1 4.4

Israel TA-25 1,417.32 208 0.1 1.7 -2.5 5.7 6.6 29.3 34.5

Poland WIG 63,993.34 254 0.6 3.4 1.1 45.0 13.2 29.8 -20.0

Russia RTS$ 1,159.11 569 1.0 3.8 2.2 0.6 9.5 -18.4 -45.7

Turkey ISE 100 105,963.60 1884 1.4 -2.8 -8.8 21.5 -28.2 -30.7 -38.2

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,269.06 2 0.4 0.3 -1.2 4.0 -11.9 21.9 -51.0

Egypt CASE 13,839.37 38 0.7 -1.5 0.8 15.6 -39.4 -12.3 -55.2

Jordan ASEGI 2,105.51 6 0.1 0.7 0.3 -3.0 -1.4 9.7 -39.5

Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,229.21 34 0.0 -0.9 -6.3 9.8 -14.2 -1.1 -54.9

Oman MSM30 5,078.03 5 0.0 -0.7 0.6 -12.2 -28.3 -8.5 -38.9

Qatar DSM20 7,798.39 48 0.4 0.5 -4.4 -25.3 -43.7 -7.3 -17.5

Saudi Arabia TASI 6,822.45 699 0.7 -1.3 -2.2 -5.4 -27.5 3.2 -28.1

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,273.70 35 -0.8 -1.5 -5.0 -6.0 -13.8 61.7 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,444.93 82 1.0 -0.7 -5.5 -2.4 -24.5 115.8 -35.9

South Africa JSE All Share 60,751.18 1820 0.1 6.9 3.3 19.0 -5.5 3.6 2.2

ASIA

China HSCCI 4,421.02 857 1.5 1.3 0.5 22.4 0.9 2.7 -21.2

China A-Shares SHASHR 3,592.92 41054 0.9 1.0 1.7 16.2 27.9 60.4 -23.0

India BSE 30 33,561.55 84 0.2 2.9 3.8 31.9 13.0 54.1 10.3

Indonesia JSE CI 6,073.09 404 1.1 1.7 2.5 28.5 11.7 28.1 87.6

Korea KOSPI 2,540.51 6814 1.0 3.0 6.0 38.8 32.4 33.3 21.0

Malaysia KLCI 1,723.54 279 0.9 1.6 1.8 14.6 -22.0 -20.7 5.5

Pakistan KSE 29,297.93 50 0.3 0.7 -2.0 -11.7 21.9 132.7 76.4

Philippines MSE CI 8,265.68 74 -0.1 0.6 -0.1 18.4 1.2 21.7 102.8

Taiwan TWSE 10,822.59 5462 0.7 2.5 1.9 26.3 23.1 48.2 37.6

Thailand SET 1,713.13 1547 0.3 2.3 2.7 21.7 8.8 25.7 119.1

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 27,327.97 27 0.6 4.4 1.3 47.2 33.8 237.2 122.8

Brazil BOVESPA 74,518.79 2274 1.0 8.2 -3.4 24.9 6.0 -13.7 NA

Chile IPSA 5,128.87 150 -1.1 -2.8 -7.8 30.7 21.6 -6.8 34.7

Colombia IGBC 10,878.06 na 1.0 3.5 -1.6 8.5 -39.2 -53.2 -32.8

Mexico IPC 48,196.89 378 0.5 4.3 -2.0 17.1 -21.3 -20.1 -0.7

Peru IBVL 19,886.00 9 0.6 3.0 0.6 32.5 17.1 -20.7 5.4

Venezuela BVC 696.56 59 -0.4 5.4 18.3 -97.8 14943.9 77497.0 394001.7 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

23 November 2017



Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 22-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 21.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -15.4 -3.3 10.7 21.6 21.5 20.8

Hungary HUF 265.7 -0.6 0.2 0.8 -9.4 8.2 23.0 267.5 269.2 260.0

Israel ILS 3.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -8.5 -9.1 -8.8 3.5 3.5 3.4

Poland PLN 3.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -14.5 5.5 12.7 3.5 3.5 3.4

Russia RUB 58.7 -0.8 -1.6 1.7 -4.3 27.8 89.2 56.6 56.8 57.0

Turkey TRY 3.9 -0.4 2.1 5.8 11.9 77.5 120.2 3.8 3.8 3.9

South Africa ZAR 13.9 -0.7 -2.1 1.0 1.3 26.8 56.7 12.4 12.3 12.0

ASIA

China CNY 6.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -4.8 7.8 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.1

India INR 64.9 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -4.5 4.9 17.1 66.0 66.0 66.0

Indonesia IDR 13,526.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 11.2 40.9 13,870.0 13,990.0 14,180.0

Korea KRW 1,086.8 -0.3 -0.8 -3.6 -10.0 -2.4 0.1 1,130.0 1,140.0 1,160.0

Malaysia MYR 4.1 -0.7 -1.6 -2.9 -8.3 22.4 34.6 4.4 4.4 4.6

Pakistan PKR 105.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 3.5 9.8 na na na

Philippines PHP 50.5 -0.1 -0.4 -1.9 1.7 12.1 23.2 52.5 53.2 53.5

Taiwan TWD 29.9 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -7.1 -3.4 2.9 31.2 31.5 31.7

Thailand THB 32.7 -0.2 -0.8 -1.3 -8.6 0.0 6.6 33.7 33.9 34.2

LATAM

Argentina ARS 17.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 8.9 103.9 261.3 18.3 19.0 20.3

Brazil BRL 3.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 28.2 55.5 3.2 3.3 3.3

Chile CLP 633.9 -0.3 0.5 0.3 -4.9 6.6 32.4 642.0 645.0 650.0

Mexico MXN 18.7 -0.5 -2.1 -2.4 -9.3 37.4 44.5 19.4 19.4 19.5

Colombia COP 2,983.5 -0.6 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 39.0 64.0 2,990.1 3,005.0 3,034.7

Peru PEN 3.2 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -3.5 10.9 25.4 3.2 3.2 3.2

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -10.6 5.1 10.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

UK GBP 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -1.2 -7.2 17.8 20.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Switzerland CHF 1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -3.4 1.4 5.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Japan JPY 111.6 -0.7 -1.1 -2.1 -4.5 -5.3 35.7 117.0 118.0 120.0

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

23 November 2017



Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

22-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 2,107.0 1.2 0.2 -2.1 24.5 4.3 9.1 -16.4 1788 1728 1670

Copper ($/mt) 6,954.0 0.7 3.2 -0.2 25.6 4.0 -9.6 6.7 5900 5725 6800

Nickel ($/mt) 11,781.0 -0.2 4.3 0.9 18.2 -26.8 -29.2 -59.9 10625 11250 12500

Iron Ore($/mt) 63.2 0.0 3.4 5.1 -19.0 -12.8 -47.4 na 69 54 56

Zinc ($/mt) 3,271.5 2.1 2.0 3.2 27.6 46.6 72.6 45.7 3100 2538 2100

Tin ($/mt) 19,415.0 -0.7 -1.7 -3.4 -8.0 -1.5 -5.9 21.0 20510 19613 19408

OIL

WTI (Oil) 58.0 2.2 5.1 13.0 7.9 -22.3 -33.3 -40.9 54 60 62

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,292.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 12.1 9.2 -25.3 61.4 1203 1255 1288

Palladium Spot $/Oz 1,006.0 0.5 1.6 4.5 47.7 31.6 55.6 183.8 748 783 850

Platinum Spot $/Oz 938.6 0.5 0.6 1.5 3.9 -21.1 -40.5 -35.7 996 1125 1250

Silver Spot $/Oz 17.2 1.1 0.4 -0.6 7.7 6.1 -48.6 18.9 17.2 18.5 19.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

CE

EM

EA

& Latam

Dayb

oo

k

23

No

vemb

er 20

17

Pag

e 28 D

eutsch

e Ban

k AG

/Lon

do

n

Macro Data GDP Growth

(YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI

(YoY %)

CA Balance

(% GDP)

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Total Govt Debt

(% GDP)

Total Ext Debt

(% GDP)

Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 3.8 3.0 191 18116 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.3 0 35.7 34.7 69.6 62.4

Egypt 3.5 4.1 NA NA 29.9 16.9 -5.1 -3.8 -10.9 -9.9 101.2 88.8 NA NA

Hungary 3.8 3.5 137 13936 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.5 -2.3 -2.4 72.4 71.1 95.4 94.4

Israel 3.6 3.6 353 40536 0.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 -2.5 -2.5 60.4 60.0 24.3 22.2

Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6 NA NA 6.5 6.5 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 NA NA NA NA

Poland 3.9 3.4 519 13660 1.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.1 -2.7 -2.9 53.3 53.9 71.9 71.4

Russia 2.0 1.8 1569 10683 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 -2.5 -1.4 15.2 15.7 33.6 32.6

Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6 NA NA 4.0 4.0 -6.8 -6.8 -9.5 -9.5 17.0 20.7 NA NA

South Africa 0.8 1.7 352 6196 5.2 4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -4 -3.3 51.7 52.1 36.7 30.3

Turkey 5.2 4.1 840 10579 10.8 8.5 -4.9 -4.7 -2.0 -2.4 28.4 28.9 50.2 49.1

United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.7 NA NA 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 20.7 20.8 43.0 NA

ASIA

China 6.8 6.3 12065 8560 1.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 -4 -4 41.6 42.1 13.0 13.20088

India 6.5 7.5 2514 1924 3.1 4.4 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 -3 69.1 67.4 19.8 18.9

Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1009 3854 3.9 3.2 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 27.4 28.5 31.1 28.9

Korea 2.9 2.7 1496 29339 2.1 2.0 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 41.5 42.6 27.3 27.7

Malaysia 5.5 5.0 313 9762 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -3.2 -3.0 66.3 65.6 62.4 54.7

Philippines 6.4 5.7 313 2982 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.8 44.2 43.1 23.3 21.9

Taiwan 2.2 2.2 566 24028 0.7 1.5 12.7 11.9 -0.5 -0.4 38.1 38.5 31.8 32.6

Thailand 3.7 3.6 447 6748 0.7 1.7 9.4 8.6 -2.0 -1.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6

LATAM

Argentina 2.8 2.9 612 14 27.1 18.1 -3.5 -3.8 -6.2 -5.5 45.2 50.1 31.9 31.4

Brazil 0.7 2.6 2034 9802 3.4 3.4 -0.6 -1.4 -8.1 -7.5 75.5 76.7 26.9 25.7

Chile 1.5 2.9 276 15 2.1 1.8 -1.6 -1.3 -3.2 -3.6 23.6 25.6 79.4 85.0

Colombia 1.6 2.5 306 6209 4.3 3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 45.2 46.3 41.7 41.6

Mexico 2.0 2.4 1404 11 6.0 4.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 48.7 48.7 23.0 30.2

Peru 2.7 4.0 212 6665 3.0 2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 35.7 33.3

Venezuela -12.0 -6.0 215 6850 652.7 2349.3 -0.4 -1.3 -18.5 -18.7 17.3 16.6 65.3 66.8

CEEMEA 3.0 2.8 3961 113706 7.3 5.8 -1.3 -1.2 -3.8 -3.5 33.2 33.5 45.4 43.6

ASIA 6.1 6.0 18723 87196 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.3 -3.1 -3.1 44.8 45.0 18.0 17.8

LATAM 0.9 2.3 5059 29567 37.4 109.4 -1.6 -2.0 -5.8 -5.6 55.2 56.5 32.2 33.9

EM 4.7 4.9 27743 230470 7.8 16.8 0.5 0.3 -3.6 -3.5 45.0 45.5 24.5 24.4

US 2.2 2.4 NA NA 2.1 2.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA

Europe 2.2 2.0 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 NA NA NA NA

Japan 1.5 0.7 NA NA 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.2 -3.5 -3.1 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

23 November 2017



Interest Rates Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35

Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118

Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)


23 November 2017



P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

country's 10-year historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.86 8.1% 0.0%

DM 2.44 23.9% 11.6%

US 3.27 32.3% 18.6%

Brazil 1.81 8.0% 0.9%

Chile 1.87 -8.8% -16.3%

China 2.18 14.9% 8.1%

Colombia 1.30 -22.9% -29.2%

Czech Republic 1.45 -18.5% -23.7%

Egypt 3.12 44.3% 34.1%

Greece 0.41 -63.5% -65.9%

Hungary 1.84 44.2% 34.1%

India 3.17 2.4% -5.7%

Indonesia 3.09 -13.3% -20.1%

Korea 1.29 6.5% -1.6%

Malaysia 1.66 -17.0% -24.6%

Mexico 2.64 -4.3% -13.4%

Peru 2.50 -20.5% -24.6%

Philippines 2.58 -5.2% -15.0%

Poland 1.50 7.6% -0.7%

Qatar 1.30 -34.3% -39.5%

Russia 0.84 -12.3% -16.5%

South Africa 2.58 5.0% -4.8%

Taiwan 2.05 12.6% 2.5%

Thailand 2.25 9.0% -1.3%

Turkey 1.33 -15.7% -22.7%

UAE 1.50 14.3% 3.4% Source: Deutsche Bank

P/BV valuation – By EM Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.86 8.1% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 2.34 9.8% 0.0%

Consumer Staples 4.05 13.2% 1.6%

Energy 0.94 -20.7% -24.3%

Financials 1.31 -14.3% -20.3%

Health Care 4.24 16.4% 4.2%

Industrial 1.46 -10.6% -17.0%

Information Technology 3.57 62.8% 48.2%

Materials 1.51 -5.2% -10.7%

Real Estate 1.54 13.4% 0.7%

Telco 2.01 -13.4% -20.6%

Utilities 1.12 -2.8% -11.6% Source: Deutsche Bank

23 November 2017



CEEMEA valuation 11/22/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Abu Dhabi Comm Bank ADCB.AD Buy 7.07 -2.2 2.5 8.80 15.6 16.3 8.9 7.9 1.3 5.9 9973

Akbank AKBNK.IS Hold 9.29 2.5 5.7 10.40 16.6 16.1 7.1 6.6 1.1 2.4 9377

Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 63.30 0.8 0.5 72.20 16.6 15.6 11.4 11.4 1.8 3.6 27426

Alawwal bank 1040.SE Hold 11.56 2.1 -17.1 11.10 10.3 10.7 9.7 8.7 1.0 2.2 3523

Alinma Bank 1150.SE Hold 17.52 0.7 16.1 17.15 10.0 10.0 13.2 12.6 1.3 3.4 6955

Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 24.44 0.0 10.4 25.30 12.6 11.2 8.1 8.6 1.0 3.7 6516

Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 52.85 -0.3 -18.0 32.00 5.2 NA na na 0.4 NA 393

Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Hold 29.30 -1.8 12.3 28.80 13.4 11.6 8.8 9.9 1.1 3.6 9381

Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 152 1.5 -11.5 175.00 15.2 14.3 8.1 7.6 1.2 6.9 9228

Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 990 -0.4 39.7 360.00 25.7 25.4 29.9 25.7 7.2 1.3 8185

CIB COMI.CA Hold 73.30 0.6 3.0 73.00 36.3 33.1 10.3 8.9 2.9 2.2 4790

Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU Buy 6.05 -0.2 8.6 7.30 22.4 21.1 8.3 8.5 1.6 7.6 8124

Emirates NBD ENBD.DU Buy 8.15 0.0 -4.0 12.75 16.7 16.0 6.2 5.9 0.9 5.8 12332

First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD Hold 10.10 -1.0 5.5 11.40 12.2 12.5 10.7 9.9 1.2 5.1 29843

Garanti GARAN.IS Buy 9.85 2.0 15.0 11.40 16.2 16.0 6.9 6.2 1.0 3.0 10440

Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 9.57 0.7 -8.8 15.00 16.7 15.3 3.2 3.1 0.5 2.1 3019

Isbank ISCTR.IS Hold 6.34 2.6 8.9 7.70 14.2 13.7 5.3 5.0 0.7 4.1 7200

National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 719 -0.1 11.8 850.00 11.1 13.9 13.8 10.1 0.0 3.7 13838

NCB 1180.SE Hold 50.70 -1.4 19.1 48.50 17.2 16.4 11.2 11.1 1.8 3.2 26994

Nedbank NEDJ.J Buy 212 0.7 -12.5 225.00 14.6 14.6 8.9 8.3 1.3 5.9 7268

Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 119 0.3 -17.6 150.00 20.7 19.1 8.5 7.9 1.5 3.8 30287

RAKBANK RAKB.AD Hold 4.95 0.0 0.0 5.05 10.8 11.9 9.5 8.7 1.1 6.1 2259

Riyad Bank 1010.SE Hold 11.96 0.0 3.6 11.55 10.5 9.9 9.1 9.7 0.9 5.4 9567

Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Hold 22.70 0.4 -6.7 25.00 11.8 11.0 8.4 8.7 1.0 4.2 11472

Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Buy 27.00 2.5 8.0 29.00 13.2 11.8 9.3 9.9 1.2 2.9 10799

Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 230 -0.3 37.7 215.00 20.2 19.6 8.0 7.1 1.5 0.0 85328

Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 168 1.0 8.9 170.00 16.3 16.3 10.7 10.0 1.7 5.2 19545

TCS TCSq.L Sell 18.00 -3.0 70.6 7.30 31.1 29.8 19.7 16.4 5.1 1.4 3287

Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 5.72 1.8 17.0 6.90 15.8 14.7 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.8 3609

VTB VTBRq.L Sell 1.91 1.4 -20.0 0.80 2.3 NA na na 0.5 0.0 12371

Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 4.16 1.0 7.9 4.80 12.2 12.4 5.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 4563

Consumer Discretionary

Al Tayyar 1810.SE Buy 23.62 2.8 -35.6 45.00 4.6 4.1 6.9 6.8 0.8 4.2 1320

Alhokair 4240.SE Hold 29.70 3.7 -19.3 42.00 9.7 9.0 19.5 13.4 2.2 0.0 1663

CCC CCCP.WA Buy 247 -1.2 42.2 340.00 18.5 13.4 31.2 20.4 6.1 1.0 2733

Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Hold 25.12 0.5 18.6 28.00 7.1 6.6 14.6 12.6 1.3 1.3 4466

Herfy 6002.SE Buy 45.75 0.7 -41.3 70.00 10.0 9.1 12.5 11.3 3.3 4.7 789

Imperial IPLJ.J Buy 214 0.4 15.2 210.00 6.4 5.8 11.6 12.3 2.1 4.1 2979

Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 141 -0.4 21.5 137.00 15.4 14.1 16.0 14.9 7.5 5.0 3374

LPP LPPP.WA Hold 8,150 0.0 66.9 8,000.00 15.5 13.2 29.0 24.7 5.8 0.4 4154

Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 208 3.3 27.8 225.00 15.0 12.7 20.3 19.1 7.9 3.3 3803

Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 3,900 -4.6 89.8 4,423.00 1,679.3 273.7 39.0 43.6 8.0 0.2 120254

Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 122 -1.5 32.2 105.00 16.9 13.9 28.6 22.6 2.7 2.1 49324

SACO 4008.SE Hold 104 2.4 22.5 90.00 14.2 12.6 18.3 16.3 4.7 4.3 668

STAR SRRJ.J Buy 24.80 1.4 9.3 24.00 14.2 12.6 25.5 23.8 1.6 1.9 6118

Steinhoff SNHJ.J Hold 56.45 2.3 -22.4 70.00 8.9 7.8 10.5 9.2 0.9 0.9 17189

Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 38.96 1.2 -1.1 46.00 6.0 4.8 11.7 10.4 1.6 1.6 970

The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Hold 149 1.1 -8.2 142.00 8.9 8.8 13.6 13.8 3.4 4.7 2261

Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 74.42 2.0 -8.4 92.00 7.7 7.1 12.7 10.6 3.6 6.0 2280

Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 55.56 2.3 -23.3 61.00 8.1 8.2 17.7 13.8 2.8 5.7 3818

Consumer Staples

Almarai 2280.SE Sell 52.00 0.0 -3.8 48.00 15.3 14.9 23.9 23.0 3.6 1.4 13865

AVI AVIJ.J Buy 101 0.9 7.8 110.00 12.3 11.1 18.5 17.7 6.7 3.8 2336

BidCorp BIDJ.J Hold 287 0.2 14.6 305.00 14.5 13.0 22.2 21.2 4.0 1.7 6805

British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 928 -1.1 16.8 600.00 14.2 na 18.4 na 0.2 3.4 114080

Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 160 3.2 35.8 144.00 17.7 15.6 25.8 27.7 11.5 1.1 2706

Dino DNP.WA Buy 71.10 4.6 127 76.00 19.8 15.5 32.2 24.5 7.8 0.0 1938

Eurocash EUR.WA Hold 27.10 1.3 -20.0 34.00 10.1 9.7 28.2 22.1 3.7 2.7 1047

Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 6.00 0.0 -26.8 6.80 7.6 6.6 13.0 11.0 2.4 0.0 2920

Magnit MGNT.MM Hold 6,720 1.8 -36.2 9,000.00 8.6 7.2 17.2 13.1 3.0 3.8 10743

Magnit MGNTq.L Hold 27.40 1.9 -37.5 37.00 10.0 8.4 20.1 15.3 3.7 3.1 12955

Massmart MSMJ.J Hold 109 1.9 -15.2 119.00 8.0 7.3 19.4 17.1 3.5 2.6 1687

Othaim 4001.SE Hold 121 -1.3 23.3 116.00 15.2 13.2 19.3 17.0 3.8 1.6 1457

Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 61.67 1.5 -5.1 62.00 11.1 10.2 28.6 22.0 7.4 2.6 2127

Pioneer PFGJ.J Hold 113 2.1 -27.8 125.00 15.2 8.9 27.1 15.7 3.3 3.2 1507

Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 220 1.6 26.0 204.00 11.7 10.6 19.4 18.9 4.5 2.4 8555

Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Hold 187 -0.5 -7.5 172.00 11.9 10.8 18.3 18.3 5.5 3.5 2581

Tiger Brands TBSJ.J Hold 404 3.7 -0.6 410.00 13.1 11.8 18.5 16.4 3.9 2.6 4789

X5 Retail Group PJPq.L Buy 38.44 -1.3 18.5 57.00 8.0 6.5 18.3 13.4 3.8 1.4 10438

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

23 November 2017




Diversified Financials

Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 6.80 1.9 -16.1 7.75 na na 12.6 10.8 na 5.8 613

Brait BATJ.J Buy 43.19 3.2 -51.6 62.00 na na na na na NA 1563

Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 73.08 -2.4 1.6 68.00 12.5 12.5 17.1 14.9 12.2 6.1 1828

FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 54.89 -0.8 1.2 50.00 3.1 3.1 10.8 11.8 2.8 4.6 22011

Investec INVP.L Buy 501 1.5 0.3 590.00 0.0 0.0 11.7 9.8 0.0 4.8 5963

Investec INLJ.J Buy 93.30 1.4 0.8 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.3 1.4 4.8 6007

JSE JSEJ.J Buy 131 1.4 -22.0 144.00 10.4 8.2 14.1 11.7 3.7 4.3 801

Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 126 -1.3 3.8 185.00 5.7 5.5 10.9 10.7 2.2 6.3 4742

Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 29.10 0.1 -4.9 31.75 na na 12.7 9.9 na 4.5 439

RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 66.33 0.5 -2.1 63.00 2.4 2.4 12.0 11.4 2.3 4.9 6696

Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 15.00 2.7 1.7 16.75 2.9 2.9 14.8 12.2 2.7 2.3 641

Energy

Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.73 2.8 35.2 0.62 20.9 21.4 na na 0.5 0.0 1385

Gazprom GAZP.MM Hold 133 0.1 -11.1 115.00 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 0.2 6.6 49533

Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 260 -0.7 25.7 235.00 4.2 3.8 4.9 3.9 0.8 4.2 20706

Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 15.30 6.3 -50.8 27.00 8.5 7.0 24.5 10.6 0.8 6.3 781

KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Hold 11.90 0.0 54.7 12.00 1.5 1.8 8.1 13.1 0.8 1.2 4877

LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,369 1.5 1.2 3,800.00 3.5 3.5 7.0 7.0 0.7 5.8 40607

Novatek NVTKq.L Hold 118 1.7 -9.1 102.00 11.0 10.6 13.9 12.7 2.8 2.1 35633

Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 302 0.7 -22.3 355.00 5.8 4.8 6.3 4.8 0.9 3.3 54110

Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 439 2.4 7.9 370.00 6.5 7.3 11.0 12.1 1.3 3.6 19166

Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 29.16 -0.9 -2.4 29.00 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.4 0.4 2.1 21405

Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 29.86 -0.6 -3.5 32.00 3.1 3.6 4.5 5.5 0.4 2.1 21923

Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 489 -0.7 18.6 525.00 5.3 5.8 7.3 8.2 1.5 10.7 18605

Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 181,000 0.3 -5.3 250,000.00 3.6 3.4 5.8 5.7 0.7 4.6 21798

Health Care

Aspen APNJ.J Hold 318 2.0 9.9 305.00 15.6 13.5 21.0 17.6 3.0 0.9 10376

IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.25 -1.0 25.9 3.21 18.0 15.1 28.9 23.8 5.0 3.4 638

Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 25.76 -0.9 -22.5 30.60 9.0 8.6 13.5 14.8 2.7 4.2 2355

MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.50 1.9 11.9 13.80 11.1 10.8 17.0 17.2 3.2 1.6 786

Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 93.93 -0.8 -29.2 93.50 10.8 11.9 29.7 20.5 0.0 1.9 4950

Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 509 0.2 -29.2 502.00 10.8 12.0 29.6 20.5 0.0 1.9 4958

Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 22.16 0.3 -31.8 29.20 8.1 7.6 12.2 11.5 2.5 4.5 2165

NMC Health NMC.L Buy 2,880 1.2 100 3,920.00 24.8 19.5 37.0 26.2 7.2 0.4 7900

SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 27.40 -0.5 -32.8 50.00 15.4 14.2 13.5 12.7 1.1 3.6 877

Industrials

Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.52 0.0 -52.8 2.96 14.4 11.3 37.0 32.6 2.4 0.0 1029

Barloworld BAWJ.J Buy 140 -3.1 16.4 145.00 5.4 4.6 11.6 11.5 1.5 2.7 2110

Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 188 0.4 1.9 168.00 8.2 8.4 14.7 14.6 2.9 3.0 4494

DP World DPW.DI Buy 24.50 0.0 39.9 28.00 10.4 9.5 15.6 14.1 2.1 1.6 20335

Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 1.81 1.1 -5.8 0.40 na 34.4 na 55.7 3.4 0.0 1110

Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 6.12 3.7 1.2 5.70 7.9 6.4 8.6 7.3 1.0 3.1 6486

Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.75 0.0 -6.3 4.50 6.7 5.9 8.7 7.8 1.8 0.0 716

Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 9.19 0.1 45.2 9.50 5.3 4.6 12.0 9.9 2.0 9.3 1643

Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 95.39 -0.1 -18.8 125.00 47.5 39.6 15.0 13.6 1.5 4.2 15849

Orascom Construction OC.DI Hold 7.24 0.0 38.2 7.60 3.5 4.1 7.5 6.2 2.3 0.0 853

Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 15.25 2.2 110 10.70 7.4 7.3 9.2 9.0 2.0 2.0 1424

Insurance

Discovery DSYJ.J Sell 164 0.4 40.6 125.00 na na 22.2 19.2 na 1.2 7577

Liberty LBHJ.J Buy 114 1.4 0.7 125.00 na na 11.1 9.9 na 6.4 2277

MMI MMIJ.J Hold 19.65 0.9 -18.3 20.00 na na 9.6 8.9 na 8.2 2254

Old Mutual OMLJ.J Buy 36.56 2.1 4.1 44.00 na na 0.1 0.1 na 355.0 12472

RMI RMIJ.J Hold 41.51 1.3 2.3 41.00 na na 15.4 12.7 na 2.9 4411

Sanlam SLMJ.J Buy 77.75 0.1 21.2 84.00 na na 16.0 13.9 na 3.9 11376

Santam SNTJ.J Hold 259 0.0 8.3 285.00 na na na na na na na



23 November 2017




Materials

Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 377 0.9 39.9 375.00 9.3 13.0 33.6 58.3 2.5 0.0 7076

AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Hold 141 4.1 -9.2 130.00 7.3 5.1 56.4 16.8 1.6 0.0 4171

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 976 1.1 55.3 800.00 6.9 6.8 17.6 18.2 1.8 3.1 12731

Gold Fields GFIJ.J Hold 57.20 2.5 28.7 52.00 4.3 4.7 15.6 25.9 1.1 2.0 3356

Harmony HARJ.J Sell 24.39 0.0 -24.2 21.00 7.6 3.8 13.6 17.9 0.4 4.1 764

Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 42.41 9.8 -2.7 35.00 9.9 12.6 na na 0.7 0.2 2177

Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 12.55 1.2 -47.6 9.50 na na na na 0.2 0.0 253

Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 54.00 0.6 38.5 31.00 24.4 18.3 91.6 49.5 2.4 0.0 16824

Nampak NPKJ.J Buy 17.10 5.5 -9.7 22.50 4.7 4.0 7.7 7.5 1.0 0.0 783

Northam NHMJ.J Hold 50.69 1.4 22.7 48.00 23.4 16.9 na na 2.2 0.0 1268

Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 36.65 0.4 15.4 40.00 6.2 5.6 24.8 15.4 2.3 2.7 659

RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 32.50 2.2 -10.5 31.00 28.7 435.2 350.5 na 0.5 0.0 447

SABIC 2010.SE Hold 99.30 0.3 8.6 95.00 7.8 7.3 15.5 15.0 1.7 4.0 79429

Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 19.00 5.1 -26.6 15.50 6.7 5.3 na 28.7 1.7 1.6 2482

Real Estate

Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.21 0.0 -16.0 3.00 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.6 0.7 5.0 4731

Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 18.16 0.0 5.4 22.00 28.5 25.8 20.5 17.1 0.9 0.0 913

Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.43 0.6 49.1 3.20 4.6 4.3 6.2 6.0 1.4 7.3 5650

Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 7.99 1.5 30.0 6.00 20.7 18.9 30.3 24.8 0.5 0.0 2301

Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 12.36 2.3 -27.9 12.10 58.4 43.3 71.4 44.0 1.2 0.0 2801

Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.19 1.4 -17.0 2.70 12.2 10.9 14.2 12.8 1.7 4.6 7760

Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 7.82 1.6 12.0 10.60 7.4 6.7 9.5 8.6 1.2 2.6 15243

Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 13.17 0.2 -9.6 14.50 12.1 11.9 14.1 10.4 0.7 0.0 469

Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.51 -0.8 -25.3 3.19 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 2407

Equites EQUJ.J Buy 20.35 -1.2 26.3 21.50 17.9 12.2 7.8 17.0 1.4 0.0 432

Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 42.00 0.5 27.4 42.00 21.0 19.9 10.5 18.0 1.0 0.0 3139

Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 17.05 -0.1 0.9 18.80 12.2 11.9 5.4 8.1 0.4 0.0 1394

Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 24.09 -0.5 -8.8 27.00 12.9 12.1 17.0 12.7 0.8 0.0 4928

Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 104 -0.8 -13.0 125.00 16.6 16.9 18.9 14.7 1.0 0.0 1842

Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Sell 17.10 -6.8 -24.0 18.00 10.1 9.3 8.6 7.7 0.6 0.0 319

Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 4.04 0.5 33.8 3.80 9.9 7.3 13.2 8.3 1.3 0.0 528

Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.43 0.2 -8.6 11.50 16.6 14.9 13.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 3769

Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 144 -0.1 23.2 140.00 35.5 34.2 17.2 23.3 1.7 0.0 4125

SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.64 -0.2 -19.1 5.80 12.1 12.2 10.5 9.9 0.8 0.0 770

SODIC OCDI.CA Hold 18.35 2.5 26.6 17.20 8.3 5.6 9.3 7.8 1.4 0.0 352

TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.44 2.6 6.7 11.00 13.0 12.3 14.5 13.4 0.7 1.6 1103

Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 19.35 0.0 1.6 20.00 13.4 11.6 11.1 12.8 1.0 0.0 952

Telecommunication Services

Digi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 36.50 3.1 -8.1 41.00 5.0 4.9 19.2 13.7 8.9 0.0 922

Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 16.10 -1.2 -14.4 15.10 5.6 5.4 13.8 13.4 3.0 5.7 38120

MegaFon MFONq.L Buy 10.12 -0.8 7.1 15.50 4.8 4.5 13.4 11.1 2.6 5.8 5634

Mobily 7020.SE Sell 13.32 1.5 -44.5 12.00 5.3 5.0 na na 0.7 0.0 2735

MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 132 1.7 2.8 136.00 6.9 6.3 28.5 19.9 2.2 5.3 17001

MTS MBT.N Buy 10.76 1.5 18.1 12.80 5.3 4.9 10.2 10.6 8.3 8.3 10523

Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 85.90 -0.1 -15.7 107.00 4.0 3.5 12.6 10.7 1.1 4.7 7557Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.54 0.0 -18.2 1.15 1.9 na 7.4 na 1.4 9.3 913Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 68.60 -0.3 -5.3 80.00 5.0 5.0 12.9 13.5 2.2 5.8 36582Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 12.36 0.2 9.1 16.90 5.7 4.9 7.4 6.3 0.7 8.1 1195Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 47.72 -0.2 -36.8 49.00 2.7 3.2 9.2 9.1 0.9 8.9 1754Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 5.67 0.0 -4.4 6.00 4.9 4.3 12.3 8.5 3.9 0.0 5008Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 14.25 -1.0 30.1 17.10 6.4 5.6 12.6 10.3 2.2 9.9 7887Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 149 0.2 -4.1 163.00 7.7 7.5 17.3 16.4 9.1 5.3 15651

UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 480 -0.4 31.2 500.00 7.7 7.5 13.3 18.0 1.0 6.9 11792Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 170 -1.0 -25.2 215.00 12.7 12.2 12.0 10.8 2.1 4.4 5132



23 November 2017



Latam valuation 11/22/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 85.56 0.6 21.4 87.00 19.4 19.3 16.1 15.0 2.9 3.9 14181

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 32.74 -0.9 17.0 41.00 11.7 12.4 7.1 6.1 1.0 3.2 28944

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 39.50 0.6 7.7 45.00 10.7 12.0 11.9 9.9 1.3 3.2 9498

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 116 0.5 25.3 143.00 16.6 17.6 13.1 11.3 2.7 4.5 17204

Bladex BLX.N Hold 29.10 -0.4 -1.2 25.00 8.5 9.3 13.1 11.6 1.1 5.4 1143

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 10.49 0.0 20.4 8.00 15.6 18.0 9.9 9.0 1.8 3.1 63832

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 212 0.0 37.6 242.00 19.4 18.9 14.6 12.7 2.6 4.8 16915

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 13.26 0.2 29.0 11.00 20.0 21.0 11.1 9.8 2.2 5.2 86248

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 9.39 0.8 5.6 8.00 12.4 16.2 13.5 11.8 2.1 5.6 35206

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 28.81 -1.5 31.7 29.00 18.7 18.2 16.2 15.5 2.8 3.8 13573

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.30 1.6 15.4 10.00 15.7 15.6 11.8 10.9 1.8 4.2 11251

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 49.05 -0.8 96.5 32.00 19.7 17.2 29.9 26.8 6.4 3.1 1344

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 17.98 -2.9 76.9 16.50 14.1 11.5 na na 2.1 0.0 2555

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 28.98 2.7 92.4 23.00 17.4 15.1 17.4 16.9 3.7 4.6 1442

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 5,560 0.3 10.0 7,215.00 17.0 16.0 25.8 23.3 3.0 1.5 21354

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 128 0.5 -5.8 187.50 10.3 8.9 18.2 14.1 2.0 0.6 9155

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 15.56 -0.7 -8.1 18.80 11.1 9.6 71.9 34.5 11.2 0.1 6892

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 35.15 -1.8 52.3 34.00 16.8 14.1 32.7 27.3 8.0 1.0 7712

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 78.94 0.5 25.4 94.00 9.2 8.4 17.1 15.2 2.8 2.1 3620

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 35.08 -2.0 4.2 54.00 6.8 5.9 10.5 10.3 19.6 9.5 1756

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 80.28 -0.7 -12.6 97.00 12.9 11.8 11.7 13.0 11.5 8.1 3068

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,320 0.6 10.2 23,400.00 6.7 6.3 33.8 20.9 0.8 1.3 2448

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.40 0.8 30.3 6.15 16.9 14.4 29.3 24.7 8.2 3.8 100504

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 126 0.5 28.5 106.00 10.4 7.9 23.4 18.2 3.1 1.9 11854

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 12.93 0.0 -12.4 15.50 9.4 7.6 28.3 15.2 2.4 0.4 10331

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 74.42 0.3 36.4 114.00 8.3 7.6 33.9 25.4 2.4 0.3 6091

CCU CCU.N Hold 26.75 0.0 27.5 25.00 10.4 9.5 25.1 21.7 2.7 2.2 4942

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,730 0.3 -3.2 2,000.00 8.7 8.1 18.1 17.4 1.2 1.8 7758

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 37.50 0.5 11.4 40.00 6.7 5.6 17.8 15.6 1.3 0.0 1929

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 69.23 0.5 9.0 80.00 8.9 7.8 18.5 16.9 2.4 2.6 14544

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 35.27 2.2 8.9 38.00 11.7 9.4 19.0 14.3 1.6 2.3 1317

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 27.00 0.8 20.2 32.00 9.7 8.5 24.8 20.9 3.2 2.6 4260

Femsa FMX.N Buy 90.06 1.4 18.2 114.00 9.4 7.8 22.5 19.5 2.6 1.5 32226

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 249 0.5 4.2 310.00 9.1 8.2 15.0 13.7 2.6 1.1 5741

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 44.28 0.5 3.9 58.00 9.7 8.0 27.5 20.0 3.2 0.7 11115

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 32.93 0.5 -2.8 41.00 13.4 11.9 24.1 20.4 15.3 4.8 5424

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 11.64 1.1 -3.8 24.25 6.5 5.2 20.7 33.5 6.4 5.6 811

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 31.99 -1.5 39.5 26.50 11.0 9.6 32.7 26.1 10.3 0.8 4256

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.94 0.5 0.4 44.00 7.4 6.6 15.9 13.8 1.3 0.0 3933

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 47.06 0.5 40.1 47.20 14.5 13.2 24.8 22.6 5.3 5.2 43858

Diversified Financials

B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 24.49 1.2 49.0 28.00 18.8 16.0 26.9 21.9 0.7 1.3 15405

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 31.85 0.5 28.7 45.00 10.7 9.9 16.4 15.6 na 3.9 1008

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 27.99 0.5 12.8 36.00 1.2 1.2 6.1 5.3 1.1 0.9 586

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 18.77 0.5 -38.0 35.00 1.9 1.9 7.9 6.8 1.7 4.1 1627

Energy

Petrobras PETR4.SA Hold 16.11 1.7 8.7 20.80 5.3 4.5 19.1 8.3 0.8 0.2 64835

Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 16.50 1.2 -2.2 20.80 6.3 5.4 19.7 8.5 1.1 0.1 94923

Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 7.76 0.8 -19.5 11.00 16.8 15.9 5.9 5.7 5.9 2.5 7770

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 25.89 0.0 20.4 31.00 24.9 20.4 78.4 57.4 11.7 0.0 8167

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 135 -2.0 48.5 142.00 10.3 9.0 15.6 13.0 3.0 1.4 5721

Embraer ERJ.N Hold 19.35 0.9 1.4 22.00 5.6 6.4 10.9 16.1 0.8 3.3 3580

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 21.75 0.0 59.7 11.00 20.2 18.5 76.8 92.6 na 0.2 7559

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 31.76 0.5 -10.4 35.00 8.2 5.6 na 9.2 1.6 0.0 1192

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 13.64 0.0 67.2 17.00 9.8 8.3 38.9 16.1 2.7 0.8 8271

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 9.84 0.0 -34.6 12.00 391.5 58.8 na 100.8 19.1 0.0 9957

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 23.57 -0.6 -15.2 26.00 13.2 12.4 15.9 15.2 4.1 1.0 19756

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 37.66 -0.6 40.5 38.00 na na 11.9 10.7 1.8 3.4 3755

Materials

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 976 1.5 55.8 800.00 6.9 6.8 17.6 18.2 1.8 3.1 12778

Cemex CX.N Buy 7.85 0.4 -2.2 9.60 8.1 7.2 20.5 13.6 1.3 0.0 11258

Vale VALE.N Buy 10.77 3.0 41.3 12.00 5.3 4.9 9.1 9.1 1.2 2.6 55731

Telecommunication Services

America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.55 1.2 39.6 21.00 6.0 5.5 19.2 17.4 4.1 0.9 57831

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 15.24 0.2 18.6 21.00 6.4 5.9 18.0 14.7 1.2 5.4 25736

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 18.75 0.6 59.9 22.00 5.1 4.5 26.8 19.2 1.6 0.5 9076



23 November 2017



Appendix1

Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

46 % 46 %

8 %37 % 32 %

18 %0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

23 November 2017



Additional Information

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, trading and principal trading revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Trade ideas for equities can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. A SOLAR idea represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less than two weeks and no more than six months. In addition to SOLAR ideas, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if an opinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at defined intervals. Updates are at the sole

23 November 2017



discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst’s judgment. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice, and investment transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance calculations exclude transaction costs, unless otherwise indicated. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other parties. The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank. Details regarding organizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest with respect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer, found on the Legal tab. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – by construction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including their tax

23 November 2017



position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect to any information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and is not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient will make an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts or for any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financially sophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particular transactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering of its products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving this directly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com on each company’s research page and under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Analysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulations, including those regarding contacts with issuer companies. Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized under German Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the

23 November 2017



European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request. Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited. India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registered office at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 7180 4444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registration nos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency Derivatives Segment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registration no.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have received administrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may have debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the “Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm. Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are based on a 12-month forecast period..

23 November 2017



Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by Deutsche Bank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents. Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers should independently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank research may not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branch may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.

23 November 2017



Australia: Retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG

David Folkerts-Landau

Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer

Research

Michael Spencer Head of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

Steve Pollard Head of Americas Research

Global Head of Equity Research

Anthony Klarman Global Head of Debt Research

Paul Reynolds Head of EMEA

Equity Research

Dave Clark Head of APAC

Equity Research

Pam Finelli Global Head of

Equity Derivatives Research

Andreas Neubauer Head of Research - Germany

Spyros Mesomeris Global Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

International locations Deutsche Bank AG Deutsche Bank Place Level 16 Corner of Hunter & Phillip Streets Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234

Deutsche Bank AG Mainzer Landstrasse 11-17 60329 Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel: (49) 69 910 00

Deutsche Bank AG Filiale Hongkong International Commerce Centre, 1 Austin Road West,Kowloon, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2203 8888

Deutsche Securities Inc. 2-11-1 Nagatacho Sanno Park Tower Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171 Japan Tel: (81) 3 5156 6770

Deutsche Bank AG London 1 Great Winchester Street London EC2N 2EQ United Kingdom Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 60 Wall Street New York, NY 10005 United States of America Tel: (1) 212 250 2500

Documents

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/11/23/38f... · CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 23 November 2017 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London. Russia / CIS