ANALYSIS OF TOURIST FLOWSFROM RUSSIAN FEDERATIONTO THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Kirill FurmanovOlga BalaevaMarina PredvoditelevaNational Research UniversityHigher School of Economics

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011www.hse.ru

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011FACTORS, AFFECTING THE NUMBER AND FREQUENCY OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS INTERNATIONALLYphotophotophotoVisa-free regime/negotiations on visa system simplification;Increasing amount of tour operators and agencies;Development of Russian relative and supporting services;Development of ICT;Increase of the income of Russian householders;Health lifestyle trend; Long holidays;Climate; Interest in getting acquainted with new, different cultures.

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011NUMBER OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS AND EU COUNTRIES(IN THOUSANDS)photophotophoto

SHARE OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS COUNTRIES

2000

2010

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011GROUPS OF THE EU COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THE SHARE IN THE TOTAL TOURIST FLOW FROM RUSSIA TO THE EU IN 2010photophotophoto

The 1st group( 10%)The 2nd group(4 - 10%)The 3rd group(< 4%)Finland GermanyItaly SpainBulgariaCyprusFranceGreece Czech Republic AustriaUnited KingdomNetherlandsLatviaLithuaniaPolandOther EU countries with the share < 1%

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (1)photophotophotoData available:annual data on number of tourist trips from Russia to the countries of EU, 2000-2010 (11 observations) -> small sample!Parsimony is crucial!

Models used:- Holt model (exponential smoothing with trend),- Box-Jenkins ARIMA

FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (2)Our choice: Holt model

Reason: non-stability of time series for many countries of destination

Empirical evidence: MSE for Holt model is lower for most destinations. In cases when ARIMA performs better, the forecasts obtained by ARIMA and Holt models are essentially similar

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011photophotophotoIncluding explanatory variables into ARIMA:consumer price indices for the destination country and for EU area,real money income index in Russia,exchange rates.

-> no significant improvement

Why?

Inappropriateness of aggregate data due to heterogeneity of Russian consumers, CPI is a poor proxy for tourism prices.

FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (3)

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011photophotophotoNumber of tourist trips from Russia to European UnionFORECAST FOR ALL EU COUNTRIESincrease by 16% expected (2013 to 2010)

3

2496.5774082.5

2075.614297

2372.2414511.5

2010.3114726

2145.206

2286.002

2574.693

2988.4915

3569.797

3119

4082.5

Observed

Predicted

Year

Tourist trips, thousands

, . .

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201020072008

19.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.5135,577,0102,1

131.018.6777331619712777811.611,6

45.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.5267,5

8.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.325,3

4.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.118,1

0.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400,0

6.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.322,3

0.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.90,9

11.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.772,7

5.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.920,9

161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.731,7

14.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.917,9

5.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.80,8

3.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.212,2

1.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.28122,0

7184557391121148173208207263.3263,3

111174209278256231226231330363470.7470,7

57589091100146199244349282386.7386,7

192221228168191219246319365296411.4411,4

106115149119156206246334398336451.5451,5

96670563542232220116910946384343,0

25353952677261798796119.8119,8

2420261919403332464972.672,6

82741293633444564784458.158,1

421214405327377391563657667556709709,0

617587112139174139171229200222.7222,7

66453642445883106234,3

1

cidcountryyeartflowfull_flowrdil_rdier_usdl_er_usdreceiptsl_receiptsarrivalsl_arrivalsrec_translrec_transrec_travellrec_traveler_lcu_usler_lcu_usreer_lcu_uslreer_lcu_ustotrec/totarreurec/euarreulavgprlprlrpsevenlavgp7

1200717.7193172.225.580845367527.1909583333210880000001888600000020773000202690002529000000237600000018559000000165100000000.73063750.7971408333100.010833333399.24666666671019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214931.76772411070.92709814311102.489310506

2200782.5173193172.225.580845367527.19095833334181000000331700000051510005158000468000000705000000371300000026120000001.429051.5592666667110.3976732946104.34423907071019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214643.07871267930.63985590511102.489310506

3200716.3231193172.225.580845367527.190958333349332000000455380000002442100023569000132310000001265000000036101000000328880000000.73063750.7971408333100.989174909899.25499379161019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141932.11421782851.922431371211102.489310506

42007244193172.225.580845367527.1909583333156870000001449500000016165000160390000.73063750.797140833311005.0367710214903.73464679840.89920555430

52007125.7319193172.225.580845367527.1909583333650200000005754300000058666000580040007286000000624600000057734000000512970000000.73063750.7971408333103.2017200287101.51419190321019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214992.05227225710.98708057340

6200784.8334193172.225.580845367527.1909583333461440000004164400000043654000410580003484000000338700000042660000000382570000000.73063750.7971408333100.485004041799.64583038191019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141014.27249257151.009189436511102.489310506

720073.1193172.225.580845367527.19095833335037000000425100000043770004070000815000000638000000422200000036130000005.86166666676.4133333333100.384166666799.87916666671019.327120863601005.03677102141044.47174447171.03923734390

820078.4109193172.225.580845367527.1909583333116860000008122000000149750001567000010870000008830000001059900000072390000002.767953.1031583333105.6791193407102.02664977791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214518.3152520740.515717700111102.489310506

9200717.479193172.225.580845367527.1909583333481930000004380300000030870000306540009495000000900700000038698000000347960000000.49977166670.5434866667105.1792098267101.64334702791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141428.94891368171.42178769460

10200717.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863611005.0367710214000

11200732193172.225.580845367527.1909583333880000000622000000165300015350000.51379166670.560408333311005.0367710214405.21172638440.4031809960

12200764193172.225.580845367527.190958333311920000001077000000148600021800002.5237252.75222511005.0367710214494.03669724770.4915608180

13200727193172.225.580845367527.1909583333141600000013610000001900000194000011.433852996212.465483757811005.0367710214701.54639175260.69803057160

14200742657193172.225.580845367527.1909583333428700000035090000003519000337500014500000001129000000283700000023800000000.73063750.7971408333100.546671222398.87415728461019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141039.70370370371.034493198311102.489310506

15200760.8171193172.225.580845367527.1909583333636530000005441500000080853000779160009444000000790300000054209000000465120000000.73063750.7971408333100.302497479299.61750318751019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214698.38030699730.69488035380

16200730193172.225.580845367527.19095833339601000000829600000093070008659000368000000306000000923300000079900000005.36453566675.83779325102.7783333333102.06251019.327120863601005.0367710214958.07830003460.95327686280

17 200776.4178193172.225.580845367527.190958333372470000006359000000668000064350008590000008180000006388000000554100000020.293666666722.5955833333108.7741666667105.56083333331019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214988.18958818960.983237247311102.489310506

18200758193172.225.580845367527.19095833331472600000012852000000844800078630001.20036583331.253843333301005.03677102141634.49065242271.6262993550

19200724.6193172.225.580845367527.190958333312277000000939400000052240004729000163500000012240000001064200000081700000006.758777.3782491667100.899166666799.47251019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141986.46648340031.97651124880

20 2007100.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863601005.0367710214000

1200831.3197.519324.85287525.5808453675243460000002108800000021935000207730002716000000252900000021630000000185590000000.68267471120.7306375100.7100.01083333331128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151015.1639146970.910579407511208.0336989083

2200896.2208197.519324.85287525.58084536754852000000418100000057800005151000546000000468000000430600000037130000001.33711666671.42905120.701178353110.39767329461128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715811.6870510580.728065195511208.0336989083

3200820.5330197.519324.85287525.580845367553495000000493320000002488400024421000134740000001323100000040021000000361010000000.68267471120.7306375101.5325127709100.98917490981128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152020.06469841531.811953015211208.0336989083

42008349197.519324.85287525.5808453675175860000001568700000015939000161650000.68267471120.730637511114.8549004715970.42994123110.87045403020

52008104.8365197.519324.85287525.5808453675702440000006502000000057192000586660008266000000728600000061978000000577340000000.68267471120.7306375106.0901015017103.20172002871128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151108.30804895510.99412762010

62008145.6398197.519324.85287525.5808453675487570000004614400000042734000436540002565000000348400000046192000000426600000000.68267471120.7306375101.9775164793100.48500404171128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151057.0394465570.948140826311208.0336989083

7200810.2197.519324.85287525.580845367558570000005037000000434700043770001050000000815000000480700000042220000005.645.8616666667100.4491666667100.38416666671128.725726217201114.85490047151150.78821110351.03223137880

820089.546197.519324.85287525.5808453675128370000001168600000012960000149750001069000000108700000011768000000105990000002.40924166672.76795115.9348672094105.67911934071128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715780.3672787980.699972057811208.0336989083

920081587197.519324.85287525.5808453675462850000004819300000030142000308700009861000000949500000036424000000386980000000.543966250.499771666792.1482679022105.17920982671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151561.1597019761.40032546060

10200814.8197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217211114.8549004715000

11200846197.519324.85287525.58084536751134000000880000000168400016530000.48081666670.513791666711114.8549004715532.36539624920.47751989610

12200878197.519324.85287525.580845367514100000001192000000161100014860002.3570752.52372511114.8549004715802.15343203230.71951375170

13200877197.519324.85287525.5808453675163900000014160000001970000190000010.694443093811.433852996211114.8549004715745.26315789470.66848444370

14200847.5667197.519324.85287525.5808453675486100000042870000003583000351900016410000001450000000322000000028370000000.68267471120.7306375102.7916899307100.54667122231128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151218.24381926681.09273755611208.0336989083

152008104.3229197.519324.85287525.58084536756778300000063653000000792180008085300010547000000944400000057236000000542090000000.68267471120.7306375101.6541528821100.30249747921128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715787.26825226030.70616207720

16200851.6197.519324.85287525.5808453675116810000009601000000941500093070004010000003680000001128000000092330000004.935039755.3645356667107.4766666667102.77833333331128.725726217201114.85490047151031.5891264640.92531245640

17 200887.5227197.519324.85287525.5808453675821300000072470000006649000668000010090000008590000007204000000638800000017.071666666720.2936666667125.5341666667108.77416666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151084.8802395210.973113397111208.0336989083

18200883197.519324.85287525.58084536751756700000014726000000860800084480001.083091.200365833301114.85490047151743.1344696971.56355277170

19200831.3197.519324.85287525.58084536751286600000012277000000455500052240001840000000163500000011026000000106420000006.59109916676.7587798.9008333333100.89916666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152350.11485451762.10800064970

20 2008254.6197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217201114.8549004715000

1200929.397201.7197.531.740358333324.852875212390000002434600000021355000219350002063000000271600000019176000000216300000000.71984335980.6826747112101.4516666667100.71234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051109.91565990430.916806828611327.6608310483

22009116207201.7197.531.740358333324.8528754273000000485200000057390005780000497000000546000000377600000043060000001.40669166671.3371166667125.9737662294120.7011783531234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305839.4463667820.693395173311327.6608310483

3200921.8363201.7197.531.740358333324.85287547505000000534950000002422000024884000127240000001347400000034781000000400210000000.71984335980.6826747112102.2533521113101.53251277091234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313052149.77495579491.775746059511327.6608310483

42009282201.7197.531.740358333324.852875147960000001758600000014915000159390000.71984335980.682674711211210.63197313051103.33145115750.91136817430

52009191.4296201.7197.531.740358333324.852875585860000007024400000052231000571920005249000000826600000053337000000619780000000.71984335980.6826747112106.1759362656106.09010150171234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051228.21373618691.01452279760

62009151.8336201.7197.531.740358333324.852875418720000004875700000043239000427340001561000000256500000040311000000461920000000.71984335980.6826747112103.1958599655101.97751647931234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051140.9416389760.942434748411327.6608310483

720094.8201.7197.531.740358333324.85287544440000005857000000428800043470003620000001050000000408200000048070000006.28833333335.6497.78100.44916666671234.710659471901210.63197313051347.36599953991.11294433770

820096.538201.7197.531.740358333324.852875985300000012837000000118900001296000084200000010690000009011000000117680000003.12014166672.409241666798.4533462221115.93486720941234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305990.50925925930.818175367311327.6608310483

9200912.996201.7197.531.740358333324.852875385450000004628500000028199000301420008047000000986100000030498000000364240000000.64191926350.5439662580.844840373792.14826790221234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051535.56499236941.26839950250

10200914.9201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751234.710659471911210.6319731305000

114910130000001134000000132300016840000.505550.480816666711210.6319731305673.39667458430.556235660

124411830000001410000000134100016110002.48403333332.35707511210.6319731305875.23277467410.7229552780

138144400000016390000001900000197000011.257430885110.694443093811210.6319731305831.97969543150.68722759180

14200947.4556201.7197.531.740358333324.852875414100000048610000003423000358300013270000001641000000281400000032200000000.71984335980.6826747112103.8325319378102.79168993071234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051356.68434272961.120641427711327.6608310483

15200977.6200201.7197.531.740358333324.8528755848000000067783000000768000007921800090300000001054700000049450000000572360000000.71984335980.6826747112101.8324847293101.65415288211234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305855.65149334750.70678084860

16200944.4201.7197.531.740358333324.852875922400000011681000000933500094150002240000004010000009000000000112800000005.28394641674.93503975108.5841666667107.47666666671234.710659471901210.63197313051240.67976633031.02481992370

17 200970.2214201.7197.531.740358333324.852875739600000082130000006032000664900091900000010090000006477000000720400000019.06317.0716666667120.4283333333125.53416666671234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051235.22334185591.02031283611327.6608310483

1820091061633500000017567000000829400086080001.08814169631.0830901210.63197313052040.77602230481.68571132070

19200928.8201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751211400000012866000000467800045550001839000000184000000010275000000110260000007.65381916676.591099166789.445833333398.90083333331234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313052824.58836443472.33315196290

20 2009197.2201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751234.710659471901210.6319731305000

2

cidcountryyeartflowpred_tflow72007

2200782.585.80969

2200896.299.39391

22009116109.2338

6200784.895.73302

62008145.6137.0391

62009151.8143.5498

17 200776.465.92937

17 200887.588.16106

17 200970.282.42127

2

00

00

00

Observed

Predicted

year

tourists, thousands

Assessment of model fit: Bulgaria

WideSample

00

00

00

Observed

Predicted

year

tourist, thousands

Assessment of model fit: Italy

PriceCompetitiveness

00

00

00

Observed

Predicted

year

tourist, thousands

Assessment of model fit: Czech Republic

Stata

(2005=100%)LCU GDP per capita, constant dollars

cidcountrytflow2000tflow2001tflow2002tflow2003tflow2004tflow2005tflow2006tflow2007tflow2008tflow2009tflow2010lcpi2000lcpi2001lcpi2002lcpi2003lcpi2004lcpi2005lcpi2006lcpi2007lcpi2008lcpi2009lcpi2010ler2000ler2001ler2002ler2003ler2004ler2005ler2006ler2007ler2008ler2009ler2010lgdpcap2000lgdpcap2001lgdpcap2002lgdpcap2003lgdpcap2004lgdpcap2005lgdpcap2006lgdpcap2007lgdpcap2008lgdpcap2009lgdpcap2010lrmi2000lrmi2001lrmi2002lrmi2003lrmi2004lrmi2005lrmi2006lrmi2007lrmi2008lrmi2009lrmi2010lpci2000lpci2001lpci2002lpci2003lpci2004lpci2005lpci2006lpci2007lpci2008lpci2009lpci2010lerr2000lerr2001lerr2002lerr2003lerr2004lerr2005lerr2006lerr2007lerr2008lerr2009lerr2010

119.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.588.296552132490.411414518992.819465849994.492159828295.77305521797.7471381103100101.4496347813103.6996266813106.9996148014107.524612911423051.881295013423865.550535386223895.853528318524167.452262773524258.54524756124702.676512727625130.173403078425880.07379649826785.866426126627250.840727551126106.187881184287.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.03121265221.02269115511.01785854271.01355391281.00468962141.001806333310.98805757390.9827012760.9742575140.97487805030.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

2131.018.6777331619712777811.680.753531047984.004623776388.825873881791.998097508793.22929836696.0709942323100104.4299148695111.3198232369122.8587942058122.755240881914.677583333316.968636666717.478071533316.611791666713.856411404512.59556358812.583786585912.465483757811.433852996210.694443093811.2574308851120.8891144313124.8504994774131.6819574582130.2188590461124.1296854181137.3616785171149.6572717551161.6146591389175.5062919586189.4429771998200.705759385787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.94311794650.95022056870.97406480110.9868017820.9780048080.984627604811.01708368441.05491346351.11865919931.11296740960.59616746340.60323993480.59920998860.5299073480.4514661840.43713738170.44490136080.45844223680.44696931750.43031009870.3546724573

345.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.586.135674175489.49848318693.70683534595.385012586395.481830504198.1862776738100102.5366294456105.5250758407112.2313302782113.399599819334.5692538.598416666738.035328333332.738518333328.20925.6997523.957416666722.595583333320.293666666717.071666666719.0635321.84580625285521.18942604075684.08710551925802.77218588146010.32738793146274.54896224766657.95991118327088.15981921967475.40054877017593.30977006387225.360049572687.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.00597582661.01236450761.02758943931.02313094451.00163458211.006307056410.99864423911.02189355571.0281439551.40411821331.37218486151.30398531751.04434137960.91909869090.89192685550.84701748580.83099621040.79331493450.68690912690.6005918333

48.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.392.055953948293.0108086195.248609918297.30453414899.178284114699.5488735211100101.3602146863103.602473766107.1633416644106.86496815678.26242833339.162244166710.32913583339.73712333338.08630416677.34888666677.47308833337.37824916676.758776.59109916677.653819166726725.775751448927879.147125692128151.714259029428753.850264540129320.316610193330439.655056472531290.273679998232431.940404274933259.262845077832866.260336453530899.281623442787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.07511858761.05209427151.04449654391.04372036261.04041154881.020272244210.98718667670.98178061410.97574828690.96889734350.33559958950.32572042660.35411923750.31060907250.26346597090.2550479820.26421197990.27134936090.2642121440.26520469630.2411383982

54.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.187.824853974490.059680013592.28815711593.803436891695.297553542797.2911199526100101.7900573986103.6384862341108.2984726141108.240101177221916.69378549322665.96527053922766.440668924922974.908015631523059.258729714123702.227616748423976.356371523424459.946039639524990.591127037925046.52357857624176.366065049587.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.02570370431.01871250071.01203220951.00616644460.99970145850.997132622310.99137308260.98212188340.98608393020.98136506560.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

60.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.164086.524978953589.248241754591.628901123693.529354330395.446556846697.5708925558100102.6758333333105.0408333333108.6125109.011666666743420.524203784946457.891441089147063.710277565748485.133069495448640.838056688650063.723472403451981.600379246454009.335689931256624.727871747455639.466978352252388.107542721787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.01052250481.00953389491.00480280631.00322654511.00126455031110.99541111430.9889432260.98836050820.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

76.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.388.145460043890.723520072692.855522794395.108490209497.096847357798.2233310652100101.8900733348103.6365010962107.1595977924108.58093294026.976248.08314416678.32281757.89471416676.58767333335.99105666675.996915.94677833335.44370083335.09813083335.360866666729069.955319646929992.940601315430104.309377015330136.641223617230179.745167669530792.779891991531459.509452375232400.081205352432802.707793086332326.927767753130547.879488213787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.02944805251.02622154541.01825394331.02016487471.01857661931.00668681510.99234717680.98210307140.9757141980.98445523630.28335777160.28735810990.28533556290.25183719680.21463795020.2079235920.21202150890.21870425680.21280378950.20513243770.1688974841

80.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4221.32452.2271.2670.979.680792488184.1148933588.213269432492.316908791495.529429384597.6261794219100103.9388947132109.0110345191113.4298036525108.348219149123500.838179767425380.262726164526414.020197177427657.401120465728408.574066024629182.708423749630309.469547832131170.869353023332319.243485429630851.335876180328502.453420150187.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.93058946660.95146788590.96734697890.99022145641.00213390941.000566632811.01230144761.03303441051.03280594720.98234532340.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

911.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.786.40370838688.40539401692.102823430395.128529287897.142857142998.3312262958100101.1378002528102.7728613569105.3265908133106.582385166523440.33403698724179.855819940924460.182990722524323.017273489324289.77974338224746.900890669725194.363484316726007.693095096726888.828480714227318.920212070626093.978964057687.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.009106189711.00999983981.02037982041.01905927651.007792628710.98502049580.9739188580.95902422370.96633528860.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

105.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.983.177996140985.545841721389.305373701392.471295368795.507436233397.7575710873100102.7433150959105.6253371349108.3614641035107.467482024711066.817665598111443.058251282211592.005596069211589.475880984311401.561889333611512.042523537911546.988037297211674.591873025611926.128502606411906.192822695411588.061736153187.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.97143319790.96765409710.97932299760.99187745751.00190319431.001913260511.00065723121.00095011820.98665748310.97436006990.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

11161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.768.468132687375.177040626282.109578829786.459187476790.439806187196.571002609100103.8799850913112.1207603429118.9228475587123.9284383153237.1458333333282.1791666667286.49257.8866666667224.3066666667202.7458333333199.5825210.39183.6258333333172.1133333333202.34166666674403.46168950194689.6084371984893.09325785465122.95630019575358.57018785985622.86043811625853.79106574326097.42095628436167.94284694556215.82472647325833.459548224187.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.79963716580.85036712370.90041388930.92738961540.94874215330.989752169711.01172770381.06250348031.08282144791.12360427129.632282557310.03155088149.82188849118.22644795687.30830457317.03642850977.05626444227.73749852517.17825508486.92528865716.3749017746

1214.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.986.583697899888.635379036491.231945767393.228548215794.444097243997.0798700081100102.773264171104.059316802108.488848186110.75122833550.3988983950.43814999170.45004156670.43362033820.37723333330.344663180.34577739220.34089388560.3116759552.7888236259982.19806736289745.86957136479926.70919114769830.48127440969852.461543509110192.12057834710487.092664575410804.523725289811004.600992667410692.624004812787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.01120828161.00260148181.000449792710.99074843220.994967530411.00094891690.98610985090.98781734611.00413234360.01620227520.01557635880.01542901350.01383225890.01229092360.01196176410.01222500330.01253703090.0121839210.01171756010.0096744478

135.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.867.12212492675.200794054880.712734704383.39506961390.528803167797.3623706731100104.4833312045107.3636479755112.3004215098114.11419082941.362833333346.035166666748.354833333345.3267536.772916666732.256916666731.0182529.6972524.694333333321.36141666675247.86136196735326.05973690875521.73947678695774.9479439986050.30892889546351.36718144526768.98630143367338.56945531558106.06041957928591.42587209548041.608188158787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.78391718360.85063581120.88509609240.89452288180.94967575980.997862867911.0176039271.01742308281.02252264821.03462283531.68005691871.63656347211.65777437611.44589929661.19812611471.11949767021.09665413821.09217371580.96534469360.85951491190.709647069

143.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.270.328424877376.57274765283.022075551989.223897264194.201521704797.582439561100102.462561564106.1626540664112.1628040701113.1228280707181.7691933333222.6560858333242.748835240.248215207.1137156966192.3811243333192.705468191.02825783339595.49753673929998.994451339210268.394270635510665.719542380910958.775030219511421.086771793911913.295716438112565.40884275813344.570192322713788.808981426612576.861994411587.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.82136345970.86615470140.91042033110.95704479980.98820373811.000118344810.9979228631.00604195941.02126960791.02563458827.38301915667.91548816478.32228695147.66379069916.74812807886.67671441496.81312610917.02543306836.84462445786.58263445195.4348646899

151.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.281229.641447247843.177686631358.060071192671.145191365382.011887364791.752330863100106.5845884134111.7387839668120.5084070444127.24201131561.533283752.17087208332.90607916673.3055433.32000708333.26365683332.91365316672.80898333332.438252.51885833333.0493251615.92947890081650.96628771531769.59323884191887.89574385171991.64763956282164.63516203042260.21733277872444.04842787642595.59608569422844.64167152532606.630651129987.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.34618152910.48840556750.6366869160.7631266680.86033062090.940365804411.03806889071.05888371151.09725835261.15364697030.06227822820.07717512960.09963065210.10544506940.10817165320.11326737330.10301257490.10330578640.09531545830.10135078270.0960709066

167184557391121148173208207263.369.927282754377.141162913582.819485743287.631405954989.521709179795.2028760364100107.2616133126116.2742561627130.6326990499134.2292610961.83638333332.1232752.18470833332.0769751.73270166671.57510891671.57413333331.55926666671.429051.33711666671.4066916667226.2566768891223.6134711041231.1640252706234.3891569815245.0641175991247.9958486012254.9829724776259.9906611808260.2526533829264.0729576285264.242874722287.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.81667853350.87258434590.90819873070.93996321550.93911102550.975730297711.04466270041.10186375361.18944249341.21699726990.07458939040.07548303950.07489951350.06625440150.0564544590.05466519880.05565368240.05734504270.05586406470.05380128720.0443187078

17111174209278256231226231330363470.791.347637592.691666666794.52595.8596.8598.4666666667100101.575103.9106.6333333333106.966666666722428.938076815523114.23326406823365.890450795623316.331246489423256.361953801723544.284545792423735.079584062224562.304158954825248.855055843725546.847066297124409.54025781587.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.06684618211.04848428881.03656143531.0281185521.01598711251.009180751410.98927855470.98460009790.97092243220.96981939880.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

1857589091100146199244349282386.782.027628617284.624691029487.47989967990.654862734593.855569363596.57629963100103.2106.18110.59111.93305.6466041667365.398560833311042.680103113911500.647699935911947.837508646712316.47990902413005.932571697613560.167553477413811.332768726614378.294538714414961.817398716315203.080668674614843.681740953187.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.95799809190.95723447610.9593048440.9723938050.98457458870.989806458711.00510506371.00620633681.00694884441.014819744312.414615988212.990024381612.897740409611.41064527369.71855300679.40956995969.57083734659.86931984389.61532012739.24727688517.6348913171

19192221228168191219246319365296411.482.510157677285.342413131988.407145277291.118395514393.888289842696.7401337071100103.5177916757106.4075911149110.7371145137110.295449644213844.528830499314421.94074066914780.201555938114961.821711995515171.509667169715414.965061406915712.094225240116077.405189080416367.415127315316262.571555468815533.755150183787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.96363353360.96535300910.9694730220.97736580970.98491783680.991485587311.00820016081.00836308591.008288357810.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

20106115149119156206246334398336451.586.524218391688.719931834691.19092875493.439077144995.936291538398.0533525595100102.0908435472103.9588385659107.4392082323108.271613030118591.56298930419269.027354419119608.327070775319636.465056495919480.707568862619585.100895741719568.326893418619853.447531145720000.52429041619586.113500957918479.18838156587.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.01051362231.00355790311.00225820241.0064020221.004944712410.99430255620.98515767690.97826011910.98165076960.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

2196670563542232220116910946384379.296538129987.273623259892.066034249193.815449057594.554638413297.9364297154100101.1149439448103.5296291733108.0325243316112.16582481213.96710833334.3460754.09394.08003333333.8890753.65764166673.23548333333.10315833332.767952.40924166673.12014166674249.80324670284454.08021963194532.00545887844599.55258274414780.64547147445039.10502607675223.66660220475552.48842645625932.45792570056228.47368070146330.564236297787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.9261017720.98719794461.00959640951.0062952910.9919080441.003746375110.98479788930.98109030810.98366240651.01695786340.1611342180.15450422160.14035334320.13015090040.12671288390.1269408780.1143909210.11412464010.10820400810.09694015950.0983020303

2225353952677261798796119.886.161392542488.683422320690.298215913591.774102530794.448061813697.2479055433100103.1948604419107.6051569215111.9025914833111.28185093550.6180568450.66093083330.6946550.66722333330.61247250.546180.54999833330.54348666670.49977166670.543966250.641919263524230.490788914625089.446375940825612.969568445726053.552188482426676.768110315327321.295808113827754.319590617628367.843668102328914.719083925528871.160690897327259.19619005987.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.00627619061.00314492470.99021050830.98439913830.99079002180.996689719611.00505500751.01971172321.0189003091.00894326370.02510395430.0234962820.02381522550.02128407060.01995542820.01895553890.01944526040.01998777170.01953694880.02188745770.0202240711

232420261919403332464972.679.923326943982.040170014284.073672806185.690474206288.224018668293.6828069006100106.5338778232117.3014417868135.3696141345140.14501208430.58516666670.60650.62791666670.61819166670.5714750.54023333330.56471666670.56040833330.51379166670.48081666670.505553065.48927759593302.30540699483587.58846423883854.10547413014153.93432275924538.90244753455046.88879957815695.36145451496296.22711618966036.14991247174972.819547344987.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.40.93342201890.92799959690.92195214980.91914414460.92549784190.960151172611.03757500051.11159779661.23257325721.27063276440.02376803590.02156125020.02152719980.01971998650.01861965770.01874915590.01996562890.02061009860.02008501510.01934652090.0159276715

2482741293633444564784458.194.889488948995.829582958397.129712971397.39973997496.29962996397.399739974100103.7403740374109.700970097121.702170217127.11271127114443.67695833333.06086666672.78059166672.7740252.7522252.5237252.3570752.48403333333136.2810110453267.35538179273505.69941081423759.49032698544162.53658812664492.77982530214873.5099434735287.13655120885839.14560237566031.66508591875153.778203650287.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.10821135371.08397891361.06512472571.04474157151.01021355690.998245864311.01036797721.03957253031.10812785661.1524746640.16247019690.14220115540.13713411970.11729302160.09972840390.09650227650.09807600350.10121838910.09865682560.09484114010.0782610362

2542121440532737739156365766755670991.106531832494.174696337296.591444085298.10034211198.961112331799.1462917046100101.5666666667104.1166666667108.35108.3522368.376653192823514.460632798123997.299744904224375.134402760224803.711249351225749.007000237826409.538403333227468.474428224828810.652852403928941.264891026826495.894370431587.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.06403031661.06525961891.05922206741.05225645991.03813334821.016146210.98919739310.98665332230.98655309960.98236146960.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

26617587112139174139171229200222.789.474855362790.995401275892.478860703294.251594718996.239430351698.2940216585100101.6837264501103.1961133363106.103693814106.192701379621194.272091886721914.071864912922201.547053626622270.613126189922300.352708671322707.013156549822998.401041343823321.307818878123647.989030741123566.85767294922820.072745074787.798.4106.9118.8136.6150.8169.5192.4215.7219.7224.41.04497401851.0292969371.01412346561.01097353251.00958204391.0074113210.9903374840.97792977180.96609993550.96280219830.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

109127139107104108113151172155234.3

2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.5 (HHI_C_Y)

( , ) , , , , ,

2.558722919

(HHI_R_Y)

.

cidcountrylcpi2000lcpi2001lcpi2002lcpi2003lcpi2004lcpi2005lcpi2006lcpi2007lcpi2008lcpi2009lcpi2010ler2000ler2001ler2002ler2003ler2004ler2005ler2006ler2007ler2008ler2009ler2010lcpier2000lcpier2001lcpier2002lcpier2003lcpier2004lcpier2005lcpier2006lcpier2007lcpier2008lcpier2009lcpier2010lerusd2000lerusd2001lerusd2002lerusd2003lerusd2004lerusd2005lerusd2006lerusd2007lerusd2008lerusd2009lerusd2010lcpierr2000lcpierr2001lcpierr2002lcpierr2003lcpierr2004lcpierr2005lcpierr2006lcpierr2007lcpierr2008lcpierr2009lcpierr2010

188.296552132490.411414518992.819465849994.492159828295.77305521797.7471381103100101.4496347813103.6996266813106.9996148014107.52461291140.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359894.069876729383.297719830683.05918143988.9294730718108.0918307894121.3699851748124.3595483261127.2668900389141.9303371116156.735870012149.372236959224.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332315.9909580882343.09544406852422.71381028372787.80410443333317.55717288543497.12339891383517.44039032323460.50870425943630.69800661363895.3369854254741.1283261362

280.753531047984.004623776388.825873881791.998097508793.22929836696.0709942323100104.4299148695111.3198232369122.8587942058122.755240881914.677583333316.968636666717.478071533316.611791666713.856411404512.59556358812.583786585912.465483757811.433852996210.694443093811.25743088515.50182746124.95058179555.08213241455.5381201116.72824266297.6273676497.94673362568.3775260479.735985172611.488096493510.904374375924.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333135.4544419129139.2557404224148.2383063843173.6116659973206.5033920147219.7730010359224.7689236741227.7929616811249.0547312022285.5122261409346.1087500917

386.135674175489.49848318693.70683534595.385012586395.481830504198.1862776738100102.5366294456105.5250758407112.2313302782113.399599819334.5692538.598416666738.035328333332.738518333328.20925.6997523.957416666722.595583333320.293666666717.071666666719.0632.49168478272.31870866512.46367888622.91354091273.38480025893.8205148954.17407274714.53790583465.19990189916.57412849435.948675435124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.740358333361.345030182465.223342493471.861879184591.3350887437103.886374167110.0833292193118.0613171287123.3900084704133.0178864085163.3859937023188.8130899187

492.055953948293.0108086195.248609918297.30453414899.178284114699.5488735211100101.3602146863103.602473766107.1633416644106.86496815678.26242833339.162244166710.32913583339.73712333338.08630416677.34888666677.47308833337.37824916676.758776.59109916677.653819166711.141513152610.1515313199.22135321449.993150011212.264970754313.54611630813.381348585713.737705571715.328598808116.258796743113.962306376724.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333274.3029396657285.5541163934268.9732717668313.2700965751376.4367890154390.3142958859378.4839734933373.5413797956392.1185158103404.0778431065443.1686075554

587.824853974490.059680013592.28815711593.803436891695.297553542797.2911199526100101.7900573986103.6384862341108.2984726141108.24010117720.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359893.567336295982.973660280882.583741635588.2812947683107.5551678794120.8037597271124.3595483261127.6939445856141.8466561517158.6384713407150.366186901324.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332303.61846287232333.97991898322408.84593248742767.48469768953301.08590143343480.8083251383517.44039032323472.12072664583628.55737692043942.62209842234772.6766534631

686.524978953589.248241754591.628901123693.529354330395.446556846697.5708925558100102.6758333333105.0408333333108.6125109.01166666670.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359892.182468143982.226067102381.993808667188.023347254107.7233366808121.151145823124.3595483261128.8051358553143.7660034331159.0984669737151.438038824424.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332269.52314745642312.95074586372391.63845795142759.39843433483306.24734249153490.81781836523517.44039032323502.33508216173677.65590293083954.05431238984806.6976175822

788.145460043890.723520072692.855522794395.108490209497.096847357798.2233310652100101.8900733348103.6365010962107.1595977924108.58093294026.976248.08314416678.32281757.89471416676.58767333335.99105666675.996915.94677833335.44370083335.09813083335.360866666712.635095702511.223790916311.156741427312.047110028514.739171547316.394992825216.675254422717.133659205619.037875935721.019389516620.254361783624.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333311.0747926868315.715885315325.4256912414377.6586279434452.3750216095472.4010878916471.6502609955465.8806135582487.0049604384522.3922602322642.8807008238

879.680792488184.1148933588.213269432492.316908791495.529429384597.6261794219100103.9388947132109.0110345191113.4298036525108.34821914910.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359884.890770319277.496617624478.937342334686.8822775282107.8168686698121.2197940336124.3595483261130.3896254801149.1998898484166.1549809666150.516383427424.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332090.00227618282179.91527325962302.48584332142723.62762905453309.11802863523492.79583017163517.44039032323545.41887352723816.65931106684129.4289725914777.443945022

986.40370838688.40539401692.102823430395.128529287897.142857142998.3312262958100101.1378002528102.7728613569105.3265908133106.58238516650.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359892.053268225581.449535785382.417896421789.5283799105109.6378230067122.095231722124.3595483261126.875698777140.6619032789154.2851801585148.063302547124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332266.34225838382291.10756702832404.00847222492806.57892548323365.00680466613518.02046557093517.44039032323449.87183895793598.25039688133834.43029683244699.5822788616

1083.177996140985.545841721389.305373701392.471295368795.507436233397.7575710873100102.7433150959105.6253371349108.3614641035107.46748202470.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359888.616640792878.814977005879.914608103187.0275754767107.7920466573121.382939521124.3595483261128.8897906112144.5659949495158.7307429431149.29287123924.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332181.73283465542216.99962402682330.99124432132728.18249937183308.35619080843497.49666209793517.44039032323504.63692610013698.12036220833944.91531302114738.6092297366

1168.468132687375.177040626282.109578829786.459187476790.439806187196.571002609100103.8799850913112.1207603429118.9228475587123.9284383153237.1458333333282.1791666667286.49257.8866666667224.3066666667202.7458333333199.5825210.39183.6258333333172.1133333333202.34166666670.2887174180.2664159850.28660539230.33526040180.40319713870.47631559680.50104593340.49374963210.61059360930.69095662290.612471174924.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833337.10819395927.4940596448.359856549410.509905117112.374936660313.724434558914.171804475213.425525672715.619500702917.172258579719.4400545603

1286.583697899888.635379036491.231945767393.228548215794.444097243997.0798700081100102.773264171104.059316802108.488848186110.75122833550.3988983950.43814999170.45004156670.43362033820.37723333330.344663180.34577739220.34089388560.3116750.68267471120.7198433598217.0570225027202.2946039535202.7189320379215.0004047135250.3598937278281.6659151471289.2034072826301.4816883416333.8712338237372.5385960497360.670431387824.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833335343.92218831485690.37863037525913.01223712196739.93660381987684.05211729148115.8489153548179.95690308668197.57602595928540.70840511299258.65516029811447.8087324859

1367.12212492675.200794054880.712734704383.39506961390.528803167797.3623706731100104.4833312045107.3636479755112.3004215098114.11419082941.362833333346.035166666748.354833333345.3267536.772916666732.256916666731.0182529.6972524.694333333321.36141666670.71984335981.62276419471.63355103281.66917615351.839864312.46183363663.01834089353.22390850553.51828304664.34770384475.25716169775.066235995724.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.740358333339.952292197945.95042926148.687406361557.676955657475.558659521986.969694767291.186452061895.6654877239111.217939755130.6555825289160.8041459057

1470.328424877376.57274765283.022075551989.223897264194.201521704797.582439561100102.462561564106.1626540664112.1628040701113.1228280707181.7691933333222.6560858333242.748835240.248215207.1137156966192.3811243333192.705468191.02825783330.73063750.68267471120.71984335980.38691058470.34390592720.34200813180.37138214440.45482995360.50723499980.51892663470.53637384710.60632747760.68560264470.655767203124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833339.52569990489.67378714479.975872742211.642266962613.959652307314.615338248314.677550128814.584518928315.510369446917.039196827620.8142860082

1529.641447247843.177686631358.060071192671.145191365382.011887364791.752330863100106.5845884134111.7387839668120.5084070444127.24201131561.533283752.17087208332.90607916673.3055433.32000708333.26365683332.91365316672.80898333332.438252.51885833333.04932519.332003778119.889558193119.97883328821.522996786124.70232300928.113351234134.321174923637.944186833945.827451642347.842471110741.727927103724.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333475.9519998156559.4766973408582.7530982326674.7133060323758.1643153502810.0508398432970.75527005931031.73880319381172.30495405021189.02295420481324.4593587802

1669.927282754377.141162913582.819485743287.631405954989.521709179795.2028760364100107.2616133126116.2742561627130.6326990499134.2292610961.83638333332.1232752.18470833332.0769751.73270166671.57510891671.57413333331.55926666671.429051.33711666671.406691666738.07880494536.331216122937.908715080942.191844367451.665968182560.442090720863.527020159268.789781507981.36472213297.697308175595.421949441224.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333937.4963698661021.96683352511105.74130355481322.65032995321585.73318710531741.56278782361796.82629595121870.46008274132081.37837523052428.05898792163028.7268681286

1791.347637592.691666666794.52595.8596.8598.4666666667100101.575103.9106.6333333333106.96666666670.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359897.320459198185.39855859784.585372837890.207378151109.3072972167122.2634043777124.3595483261127.4241586336142.2045816154156.1993312154148.597142993124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332396.01997341232402.19028786862467.23056225452827.8644905113354.86229885793522.8661490273517.44039032323464.78498806673637.71341285863882.00245377994716.5265659093

1882.027628617284.624691029487.47989967990.654862734593.855569363596.57629963100103.2106.18110.59111.93305.6466041667365.39856083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.71984335980.26837408790.23159557840.23253063440.25343370110.31465373960.35620591550.36940473190.38456340910.43168213960.48119971440.46188283124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833336.6073432076.5145906236.78257562197.9447621559.657360442310.263625228910.448406589610.456647634711.042794061311.95919635314.6603265654

1982.510157677285.342413131988.407145277291.118395514393.888289842696.7401337071100103.5177916757106.4075911149110.7371145137110.29544964420.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359887.905135298878.627554458279.11083147185.7543198819105.964638131120.1196149661124.3595483261129.8613586796145.6366407623162.2106585911153.22145873124.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332164.21564054182211.72758394742307.54626553332688.26786757793252.26932263383461.09555473143517.44039032323531.0547929673725.50838718774031.40122163184863.3040044775

2086.524218391688.719931834691.19092875493.439077144995.936291538398.0533525595100102.0908435472103.9588385659107.4392082323108.27161303010.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359892.181657852181.739325334981.601890590787.9383846228108.2760633252121.7502033978124.3595483261128.0712758376142.2851120643157.3797981137150.409962887424.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332269.5031981542299.25910556532380.20678574212756.73498470773323.21164247933508.07890856883517.44039032323482.38072499623639.77344982093911.3404500464774.0661189489

2179.296538129987.273623259892.066034249193.815449057594.554638413297.9364297154100101.1149439448103.5296291733108.0325243316112.16582481213.96710833334.3460754.09394.08003333333.8890753.65764166673.23548333333.10315833332.767952.40924166673.120141666719.988498288220.08102098122.48858893722.993794754324.312886332426.77584045730.907283301332.584526177337.402998310444.840883264835.948952578224.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333492.1148290051564.8623860103655.9589686231720.8205916265746.2117151364771.5121498349874.195251611886.0044935984956.80031606131114.42486666921141.0326365386

2286.161392542488.683422320690.298215913591.774102530794.448061813697.2479055433100103.1948604419107.6051569215111.9025914833111.28185093550.6180568450.66093083330.6946550.66722333330.61247250.546180.54999833330.54348666670.49977166670.543966250.6419192635139.4069060791134.1795810514129.990017942137.5463026334154.207840864178.0510189741181.818732784189.8756064704215.308638121205.7160558826173.358017532324.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833333432.18408697573774.35979865823791.6170880934311.86797566384732.95090699535130.31606420565142.64134133745162.89970405255507.77697806965112.63542234415502.4455964311

2379.923326943982.040170014284.073672806185.690474206288.224018668293.6828069006100106.5338778232117.3014417868135.3696141345140.14501208430.58516666670.60650.62791666670.61819166670.5714750.54023333330.56471666670.56040833330.51379166670.48081666670.50555136.5821594029135.2682110704133.8930422923138.6147352458154.3794893359173.4117484431177.0799515981190.100452628228.3054580232281.5410186859277.212960309224.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833333362.63910628273804.98205389983905.46255143034345.36171760864738.21914618414996.64132160445008.60756131395169.01348655495840.24661825596997.10374477438798.8386948596

2494.889488948995.829582958397.129712971397.39973997496.29962996397.399739974100103.7403740374109.700970097121.702170217127.11271127114443.67695833333.06086666672.78059166672.7740252.7522252.5237252.3570752.484033333323.722372237223.957395739624.282428242826.489215037131.461556627635.028422598536.048701796137.69327509143.467877877751.632710124651.171902391724.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.7403583333584.0424322432673.9015776578708.2826152615830.3967161025965.61888255451009.29991974541019.61740311161024.9162724471111.94506244571283.22129063881624.2145185117

2591.106531832494.174696337296.591444085298.10034211198.961112331799.1462917046100101.5666666667104.1166666667108.35108.350.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359897.063588687686.764901449486.434523257392.3252442103111.6899506302123.107276458124.3595483261127.4137046047142.5011262995158.7139500205150.518857369624.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332389.69584712942440.62437368582521.16755249312894.2563793723427.99075699163547.18126114753517.44039032323464.50073300173645.29927656843944.49796061634777.5224688339

2689.474855362790.995401275892.478860703294.251594718996.239430351698.2940216585100101.6837264501103.1961133363106.103693814106.19270137960.93862727581.08540083331.117511.06255166670.88603416670.8053650.804120.79714083330.73063750.68267471120.719843359895.325224044183.835757704782.754392088888.7030698607108.6181932618122.0490357273124.3595483261127.5605541682141.2411946229155.4235012181147.521957292524.619928.129166666729.16852531.348483333330.69202528.813741666728.284441666727.190958333325.580845367524.85287531.74035833332346.89748344312358.23000110082413.82355450212780.70670714213333.71230304683516.68938611183517.44039032323468.49371336383613.06915917553862.72084783644682.3997865001

0

0

cidcountrylcpierr2000lcpierr2001lcpierr2002lcpierr2003lcpierr2004lcpierr2005lcpierr2006lcpierr2007lcpierr2008lcpierr2009lcpierr2010lpci2000lpci2001lpci2002lpci2003lpci2004lpci2005lpci2006lpci2007lpci2008lpci2009lpci2010lerr2000lerr2001lerr2002lerr2003lerr2004lerr2005lerr2006lerr2007lerr2008lerr2009lerr2010

12315.9909580882343.09544406852422.71381028372787.80410443333317.55717288543497.12339891383517.44039032323460.50870425943630.69800661363895.3369854254741.12832613621.03121265221.02269115511.01785854271.01355391281.00468962141.001806333310.98805757390.9827012760.9742575140.97487805030.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

2135.4544419129139.2557404224148.2383063843173.6116659973206.5033920147219.7730010359224.7689236741227.7929616811249.0547312022285.5122261409346.10875009170.94311794650.95022056870.97406480110.9868017820.9780048080.984627604811.01708368441.05491346351.11865919931.11296740960.59616746340.60323993480.59920998860.5299073480.4514661840.43713738170.44490136080.45844223680.44696931750.43031009870.3546724573

361.345030182465.223342493471.861879184591.3350887437103.886374167110.0833292193118.0613171287123.3900084704133.0178864085163.3859937023188.81308991871.00597582661.01236450761.02758943931.02313094451.00163458211.006307056410.99864423911.02189355571.0281439551.40411821331.37218486151.30398531751.04434137960.91909869090.89192685550.84701748580.83099621040.79331493450.68690912690.6005918333

4274.3029396657285.5541163934268.9732717668313.2700965751376.4367890154390.3142958859378.4839734933373.5413797956392.1185158103404.0778431065443.16860755541.07511858761.05209427151.04449654391.04372036261.04041154881.020272244210.98718667670.98178061410.97574828690.96889734350.33559958950.32572042660.35411923750.31060907250.26346597090.2550479820.26421197990.27134936090.2642121440.26520469630.2411383982

52303.61846287232333.97991898322408.84593248742767.48469768953301.08590143343480.8083251383517.44039032323472.12072664583628.55737692043942.62209842234772.67665346311.02570370431.01871250071.01203220951.00616644460.99970145850.997132622310.99137308260.98212188340.98608393020.98136506560.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

62269.52314745642312.95074586372391.63845795142759.39843433483306.24734249153490.81781836523517.44039032323502.33508216173677.65590293083954.05431238984806.69761758221.01052250481.00953389491.00480280631.00322654511.00126455031110.99541111430.9889432260.98836050820.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

7311.0747926868315.715885315325.4256912414377.6586279434452.3750216095472.4010878916471.6502609955465.8806135582487.0049604384522.3922602322642.88070082381.02944805251.02622154541.01825394331.02016487471.01857661931.00668681510.99234717680.98210307140.9757141980.98445523630.28335777160.28735810990.28533556290.25183719680.21463795020.2079235920.21202150890.21870425680.21280378950.20513243770.1688974841

82090.00227618282179.91527325962302.48584332142723.62762905453309.11802863523492.79583017163517.44039032323545.41887352723816.65931106684129.4289725914777.4439450220.93058946660.95146788590.96734697890.99022145641.00213390941.000566632811.01230144761.03303441051.03280594720.98234532340.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

92266.34225838382291.10756702832404.00847222492806.57892548323365.00680466613518.02046557093517.44039032323449.87183895793598.25039688133834.43029683244699.58227886161.009106189711.00999983981.02037982041.01905927651.007792628710.98502049580.9739188580.95902422370.96633528860.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

102181.73283465542216.99962402682330.99124432132728.18249937183308.35619080843497.49666209793517.44039032323504.63692610013698.12036220833944.91531302114738.60922973660.97143319790.96765409710.97932299760.99187745751.00190319431.001913260511.00065723121.00095011820.98665748310.97436006990.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

117.10819395927.4940596448.359856549410.509905117112.374936660313.724434558914.171804475213.425525672715.619500702917.172258579719.44005456030.79963716580.85036712370.90041388930.92738961540.94874215330.989752169711.01172770381.06250348031.08282144791.12360427129.632282557310.03155088149.82188849118.22644795687.30830457317.03642850977.05626444227.73749852517.17825508486.92528865716.3749017746

125343.92218831485690.37863037525913.01223712196739.93660381987684.05211729148115.8489153548179.95690308668197.57602595928540.70840511299258.65516029811447.80873248591.01120828161.00260148181.000449792710.99074843220.994967530411.00094891690.98610985090.98781734611.00413234360.01620227520.01557635880.01542901350.01383225890.01229092360.01196176410.01222500330.01253703090.0121839210.01171756010.0096744478

1339.952292197945.95042926148.687406361557.676955657475.558659521986.969694767291.186452061895.6654877239111.217939755130.6555825289160.80414590570.78391718360.85063581120.88509609240.89452288180.94967575980.997862867911.0176039271.01742308281.02252264821.03462283531.68005691871.63656347211.65777437611.44589929661.19812611471.11949767021.09665413821.09217371580.96534469360.85951491190.709647069

149.52569990489.67378714479.975872742211.642266962613.959652307314.615338248314.677550128814.584518928315.510369446917.039196827620.81428600820.82136345970.86615470140.91042033110.95704479980.98820373811.000118344810.9979228631.00604195941.02126960791.02563458827.38301915667.91548816478.32228695147.66379069916.74812807886.67671441496.81312610917.02543306836.84462445786.58263445195.4348646899

15475.9519998156559.4766973408582.7530982326674.7133060323758.1643153502810.0508398432970.75527005931031.73880319381172.30495405021189.02295420481324.45935878020.34618152910.48840556750.6366869160.7631266680.86033062090.940365804411.03806889071.05888371151.09725835261.15364697030.06227822820.07717512960.09963065210.10544506940.10817165320.11326737330.10301257490.10330578640.09531545830.10135078270.0960709066

16937.4963698661021.96683352511105.74130355481322.65032995321585.73318710531741.56278782361796.82629595121870.46008274132081.37837523052428.05898792163028.72686812860.81667853350.87258434590.90819873070.93996321550.93911102550.975730297711.04466270041.10186375361.18944249341.21699726990.07458939040.07548303950.07489951350.06625440150.0564544590.05466519880.05565368240.05734504270.05586406470.05380128720.0443187078

172396.01997341232402.19028786862467.23056225452827.8644905113354.86229885793522.8661490273517.44039032323464.78498806673637.71341285863882.00245377994716.52656590931.06684618211.04848428881.03656143531.0281185521.01598711251.009180751410.98927855470.98460009790.97092243220.96981939880.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

186.6073432076.5145906236.78257562197.9447621559.657360442310.263625228910.448406589610.456647634711.042794061311.95919635314.66032656540.95799809190.95723447610.9593048440.9723938050.98457458870.989806458711.00510506371.00620633681.00694884441.014819744312.414615988212.990024381612.897740409611.41064527369.71855300679.40956995969.57083734659.86931984389.61532012739.24727688517.6348913171

192164.21564054182211.72758394742307.54626553332688.26786757793252.26932263383461.09555473143517.44039032323531.0547929673725.50838718774031.40122163184863.30400447750.96363353360.96535300910.9694730220.97736580970.98491783680.991485587311.00820016081.00836308591.008288357810.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

202269.5031981542299.25910556532380.20678574212756.73498470773323.21164247933508.07890856883517.44039032323482.38072499623639.77344982093911.3404500464774.06611894891.01051362231.00355790311.00225820241.0064020221.004944712410.99430255620.98515767690.97826011910.98165076960.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

21492.1148290051564.8623860103655.9589686231720.8205916265746.2117151364771.5121498349874.195251611886.0044935984956.80031606131114.42486666921141.03263653860.9261017720.98719794461.00959640951.0062952910.9919080441.003746375110.98479788930.98109030810.98366240651.01695786340.1611342180.15450422160.14035334320.13015090040.12671288390.1269408780.1143909210.11412464010.10820400810.09694015950.0983020303

223432.18408697573774.35979865823791.6170880934311.86797566384732.95090699535130.31606420565142.64134133745162.89970405255507.77697806965112.63542234415502.44559643111.00627619061.00314492470.99021050830.98439913830.99079002180.996689719611.00505500751.01971172321.0189003091.00894326370.02510395430.0234962820.02381522550.02128407060.01995542820.01895553890.01944526040.01998777170.01953694880.02188745770.0202240711

233362.63910628273804.98205389983905.46255143034345.36171760864738.21914618414996.64132160445008.60756131395169.01348655495840.24661825596997.10374477438798.83869485960.93342201890.92799959690.92195214980.91914414460.92549784190.960151172611.03757500051.11159779661.23257325721.27063276440.02376803590.02156125020.02152719980.01971998650.01861965770.01874915590.01996562890.02061009860.02008501510.01934652090.0159276715

24584.0424322432673.9015776578708.2826152615830.3967161025965.61888255451009.29991974541019.61740311161024.9162724471111.94506244571283.22129063881624.21451851171.10821135371.08397891361.06512472571.04474157151.01021355690.998245864311.01036797721.03957253031.10812785661.1524746640.16247019690.14220115540.13713411970.11729302160.09972840390.09650227650.09807600350.10121838910.09865682560.09484114010.0782610362

252389.69584712942440.62437368582521.16755249312894.2563793723427.99075699163547.18126114753517.44039032323464.50073300173645.29927656843944.49796061634777.52246883391.06403031661.06525961891.05922206741.05225645991.03813334821.016146210.98919739310.98665332230.98655309960.98236146960.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

262346.89748344312358.23000110082413.82355450212780.70670714213333.71230304683516.68938611183517.44039032323468.49371336383613.06915917553862.72084783644682.39978650011.04497401851.0292969371.01412346561.01097353251.00958204391.0074113210.9903374840.97792977180.96609993550.96280219830.03812473960.03858631310.03831218750.03389483490.0288685470.02795072610.02842976390.02931639350.02856189820.02746864140.0226791189

40467.263826539142355.389854161943901.791203284250510.303329636259061.120221285162426.35056509163007.893008573163013.453116059666937.052449283972268.06789691487054.173362636500000000000

NetherlandsNLDInternational tourism, number of arrivalsST.INT.ARVL9874000100030009500000959500091810009646000100120001073900011008000101040009921000

Netherlands AntillesANTInternational tourism, number of arrivalsST.INT.ARVL722000692000677000672000731000783000774000787000867000982000898000

European UnionEUUConsumer price index (2005 = 100)FP.CPI.TOTL85.62488.40539401691.19092875493.228548215795.326012313397.5708925558100102.6758333333105.5250758407109.8268304472110.2954496442

cidcountrylpci2000lpci2001lpci2002lpci2003lpci2004lpci2005lpci2006lpci2007lpci2008lpci2009lpci2010

11.03121265221.02269115511.01785854271.01355391281.00468962141.001806333310.98805757390.9827012760.9742575140.9748780503

20.94311794650.95022056870.97406480110.9868017820.9780048080.984627604811.01708368441.05491346351.11865919931.1129674096

31.00597582661.01236450761.02758943931.02313094451.00163458211.006307056410.99864423911.02189355571.028143955

41.07511858761.05209427151.04449654391.04372036261.04041154881.020272244210.98718667670.98178061410.97574828690.9688973435

51.02570370431.01871250071.01203220951.00616644460.99970145850.997132622310.99137308260.98212188340.98608393020.9813650656

61.01052250481.00953389491.00480280631.00322654511.00126455031110.99541111430.9889432260.9883605082

71.02944805251.02622154541.01825394331.02016487471.01857661931.00668681510.99234717680.98210307140.9757141980.9844552363

80.93058946660.95146788590.96734697890.99022145641.00213390941.000566632811.01230144761.03303441051.03280594720.9823453234

91.009106189711.00999983981.02037982041.01905927651.007792628710.98502049580.9739188580.95902422370.9663352886

100.97143319790.96765409710.97932299760.99187745751.00190319431.001913260511.00065723121.00095011820.98665748310.9743600699

110.79963716580.85036712370.90041388930.92738961540.94874215330.989752169711.01172770381.06250348031.08282144791.1236042712

121.01120828161.00260148181.000449792710.99074843220.994967530411.00094891690.98610985090.98781734611.0041323436

130.78391718360.85063581120.88509609240.89452288180.94967575980.997862867911.0176039271.01742308281.02252264821.0346228353

140.82136345970.86615470140.91042033110.95704479980.98820373811.000118344810.9979228631.00604195941.02126960791.0256345882

150.34618152910.48840556750.6366869160.7631266680.86033062090.940365804411.03806889071.05888371151.09725835261.1536469703

160.81667853350.87258434590.90819873070.93996321550.93911102550.975730297711.04466270041.10186375361.18944249341.2169972699

171.06684618211.04848428881.03656143531.0281185521.01598711251.009180751410.98927855470.98460009790.97092243220.9698193988

180.95799809190.95723447610.9593048440.9723938050.98457458870.989806458711.00510506371.00620633681.00694884441.0148197443

190.96363353360.96535300910.9694730220.97736580970.98491783680.991485587311.00820016081.00836308591.00828835781

201.01051362231.00355790311.00225820241.0064020221.004944712410.99430255620.98515767690.97826011910.9816507696

210.9261017720.98719794461.00959640951.0062952910.9919080441.003746375110.98479788930.98109030810.98366240651.0169578634

221.00627619061.00314492470.99021050830.98439913830.99079002180.996689719611.00505500751.01971172321.0189003091.0089432637

230.93342201890.92799959690.92195214980.91914414460.92549784190.960151172611.03757500051.11159779661.23257325721.2706327644

241.10821135371.08397891361.06512472571.04474157151.01021355690.998245864311.01036797721.03957253031.10812785661.152474664

251.06403031661.06525961891.05922206741.05225645991.03813334821.016146210.98919739310.98665332230.98655309960.9823614696

261.04497401851.0292969371.01412346561.01097353251.00958204391.0074113210.9903374840.97792977180.96609993550.9628021983

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

cidcountry20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010RMSE201120122013

119.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.50.373110.29469121.3709147.8778169.1141

2131.018.6777331619712777811.60.59430.116847.8407813.323862.524417-7.250457

345.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.50.51150.457222.56601256.2665291.6091321.2055

48.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.30.858804.58576822.9447727.8543930.74143

54.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.10.44680.52112.2181717.104819.6885121.82755

60.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400.45360.84940.60200660.0637747-0.5178317-1.07051

76.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.30.21510.75163.1877222.386623.0831623.79835

80.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.9

911.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.70.554615.79142168.0273985.96404101.3094

105.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.90.506113.40691113.2705722.8961928.66055

11161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.70.56070.35413.76363231.1636233.9124136.36044

1214.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.90.056315.32767717.9090917.4331916.95781

135.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.8101.1308712.0893160.2503166-0.2993747

143.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.20.37880.29181.64125611.4593512.6283913.5169

151.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.2812101.3859112.63182.3507892.701575

167184557391121148173208207263.30.67950.534620.64858236.4061284.7282314.7751

17111174209278256231226231330363470.71043.72676402.3993510.0993549.499

1857589091100146199244349282386.70.43140.600842.87714373.5841426.3517473.4612

19192221228168191219246319365296411.40.42550.580850.03052373.2871428.0602466.618

20106115149119156206246334398336451.50.5520.385147.50377414.8699479.3402523.5905

219667056354223222011691094638430.5494159.647861.53486922.9961221.67649

2225353952677261798796119.80.59808.24977106.9514124.7343134.8342

232420261919403332464972.60.293419.01488654.9990671.9477783.73221

2482741293633444564784458.10.1936132.3316256.3973666.1932475.65954

254212144053273773915636576675567090.48920.2017109.7691655.3153719.6688757.7582

26617587112139174139171229200222.70.0771118.59483240.2674254.0528269.1935

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

421214405327377391563657667556709

655.3153719.6688757.7582

4

country20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013RSS

2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.50.604326574.3700965

2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.5

158.5923-420.967296.631-361.93134.895140.796288.691413.7985581.3055-450.797963.52010201120122013

2655.16931654.6432668.8721648.3812280.1012426.7982863.3843402.294151.10252668.2034082.542974511.54726

. 514946.889604433702.590721246835.08062534.82180121872.931025000115651.886556249928058.5950491065235.570506252000236.004209

diff-420.967296.631-361.93134.895140.796288.691413.7985581.3055-450.797963.5

beta_AR-0.586916878100000000

alpha_AR200.0334014789

forecast_AR2522.71603886422398.17666103782422.76722713712266.06724921972403.39985272262605.28878104922945.65957773363428.65239224873583.6137693353

sq_error22642.7373211911150439.77101231277040.2348098733397.394288672929341.3423042119146844.323811262389547.52187339295884.6040253433248887.471146858

MSE:129002.822288124MSE_Holt:480730.485566278

23225.86787415280.520.98

121864.744826732

200020102013 () (2013 2010 )

825849-16%

4217097577%

6122327322%

1913619140%

13111.60-100%

4526832622%

8253020%

5182117%

0000%

6222827%

1110%

117311659%

5212414%

16323613%

1418196%

510-100%

4121525%

1220%

7126331821%

11147157923%

5738746219%

1924114448%

10645253017%

9664328-35%

2512014017%

24738010%200020102013

10923425710%24964084.64726

24964084.64726

yeartflowarima(0,1,1)arima(1,1,0)Holtresma2resar2resholt2

2000421

2001214461.3637454.664449.861188.8000776957919.16089655601.64

2002405378.0456408.7225372.77296726.5396793613.857006251038.5821071616

2003327427.3941333.3707413.96141555210078.9753148140.585818497562.2877948076

2004377442.6593435.3924401.94169020434311.143676493409.67237776622.0879102454

2005391469.8911399.7315416.99115713576223.8056592176.23909225675.5402492543

2006563497.1064437.8236431.35013643464341.9665209615669.1311169617331.6865767988

2007657546.8834504.086516.229683641312125.6655955623382.69139619816.2819677341

2008667601.0117650.2856606.3610088614354.45573689279.371167363677.0872463557

2009556648.7075716.5005661.76817410618594.6805562525760.4105002511186.9066537311

2010709679.8004686.4769643.0254267112852.61664016507.290033614352.6443206432

MSE11279.86494573812705.84094049312186.4744826732

606.361008861661.7681741061643.0254267112

449.8372.77296413.961415552401.9416902043416.9911571357431.3501364346516.2296836413606.361008861661.7681741061643.0254267112

4

Observed

Fitted

Year

Tourist trips, thousands

ARIMA(1,1,0)

Holt

Observed

Predicted

Year

Tourist trips, thousands

200020102013 () (2013 2010 )

1913619140%

5182117%

7126331821%

2512014017%

16323613%

11147157923%

5738746219%

6222827%

1110%

1924114448%

10645253017%

24738010%

825849-16%

0000%

1418196%

117311659%

9664328-35%

5212414%

1220%

510-100%

4121525%

4217097577%

6122327322%

4526832622%

8253020%

13111.60-100%

cidcountryyeartflowfull_flow

1200717.7

2200782.5173

3200716.3231

42007244

52007125.7319

6200784.8334

720073.1

820078.4109

9200717.479

10200717.8

11200732

12200764

13200727

14200742657

15200760.8171

16200730

17 200776.4178

18200758

19200724.614.563

20200711.572

2120071.377

22200715.494

232007

24200732.965

2520079.268

26200721.978

27200717.725

2820073.69

2920079.105

3020073.43

1200831.3

2200896.2208

3200820.5330

42008349

52008104.8365

62008145.6398

7200810.2

820089.546

920081587

10200814.8

11200846

12200878

13200877

14200847.5667

152008104.3229

16200851.6

17 200887.5227

18200883

19200831.320.847

20200815.321

2120080.931

22200823.368

2320082.227

24200848.63

25200810.098

26200831.161

27200818.84

2820083.187

29200810.393

3020083.694

1200929.397

22009116207

3200921.8363

42009282

52009191.4296

62009151.8336

720094.8

820096.538

9200912.996

10200914.9

11200949

12200944

1320098

14200947.4556

15200977.6200

16200944.4

17 200970.2214

182009106

19200928.819.524

20200914.097

2120090.164

22200920.913

2320091.267

24200956.013

25200911.631

26200927.027

27200912.444

2820092.639

29200910

3020092.281

12006

22006

32006

42006

52006

62006

72006

82006

92006

102006

112006

122006

132006

142006

152006

162006

17 2006

182006

192006

202006

212006

222006

232006

242006

252006

262006

272006

282006

292006

302006

FORECASTS FOR THE MOST POPULAR DESTINATIONS (1) FinlandGermany

4

4212000

214449.8

405372.77296

327413.961415552

377401.9416902043

391416.9911571357

563431.3501364346

657516.2296836413

667606.361008861

556661.7681741061

709643.0254267112

2011700.430064415

2012728.8058898717

2013757.1817153284

Observed

Fitted

Year

Tourist trips, thousands

, . .

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201020072008

19.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.5135,577,0102,1

131.018.6777331619712777811.611,6

45.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.5267,5

8.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.325,3

4.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.118,1

0.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400,0

6.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.322,3

0.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.90,9

11.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.772,7

5.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.920,9

161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.731,7

14.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.917,9

5.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.80,8

3.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.212,2

1.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.28122,0

7184557391121148173208207263.3263,3

111174209278256231226231330363470.7470,7

57589091100146199244349282386.7386,7

192221228168191219246319365296411.4411,4

106115149119156206246334398336451.5451,5

96670563542232220116910946384343,0

25353952677261798796119.8119,8

2420261919403332464972.672,6

82741293633444564784458.158,1

421214405327377391563657667556709709,0

617587112139174139171229200222.7222,7

66453642445883106234,3

1

cidcountryyeartflowfull_flowrdil_rdier_usdl_er_usdreceiptsl_receiptsarrivalsl_arrivalsrec_translrec_transrec_travellrec_traveler_lcu_usler_lcu_usreer_lcu_uslreer_lcu_ustotrec/totarreurec/euarreulavgprlprlrpsevenlavgp7

1200717.7193172.225.580845367527.1909583333210880000001888600000020773000202690002529000000237600000018559000000165100000000.73063750.7971408333100.010833333399.24666666671019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214931.76772411070.92709814311102.489310506

2200782.5173193172.225.580845367527.19095833334181000000331700000051510005158000468000000705000000371300000026120000001.429051.5592666667110.3976732946104.34423907071019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214643.07871267930.63985590511102.489310506

3200716.3231193172.225.580845367527.190958333349332000000455380000002442100023569000132310000001265000000036101000000328880000000.73063750.7971408333100.989174909899.25499379161019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141932.11421782851.922431371211102.489310506

42007244193172.225.580845367527.1909583333156870000001449500000016165000160390000.73063750.797140833311005.0367710214903.73464679840.89920555430

52007125.7319193172.225.580845367527.1909583333650200000005754300000058666000580040007286000000624600000057734000000512970000000.73063750.7971408333103.2017200287101.51419190321019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214992.05227225710.98708057340

6200784.8334193172.225.580845367527.1909583333461440000004164400000043654000410580003484000000338700000042660000000382570000000.73063750.7971408333100.485004041799.64583038191019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141014.27249257151.009189436511102.489310506

720073.1193172.225.580845367527.19095833335037000000425100000043770004070000815000000638000000422200000036130000005.86166666676.4133333333100.384166666799.87916666671019.327120863601005.03677102141044.47174447171.03923734390

820078.4109193172.225.580845367527.1909583333116860000008122000000149750001567000010870000008830000001059900000072390000002.767953.1031583333105.6791193407102.02664977791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214518.3152520740.515717700111102.489310506

9200717.479193172.225.580845367527.1909583333481930000004380300000030870000306540009495000000900700000038698000000347960000000.49977166670.5434866667105.1792098267101.64334702791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141428.94891368171.42178769460

10200717.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863611005.0367710214000

11200732193172.225.580845367527.1909583333880000000622000000165300015350000.51379166670.560408333311005.0367710214405.21172638440.4031809960

12200764193172.225.580845367527.190958333311920000001077000000148600021800002.5237252.75222511005.0367710214494.03669724770.4915608180

13200727193172.225.580845367527.1909583333141600000013610000001900000194000011.433852996212.465483757811005.0367710214701.54639175260.69803057160

14200742657193172.225.580845367527.1909583333428700000035090000003519000337500014500000001129000000283700000023800000000.73063750.7971408333100.546671222398.87415728461019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141039.70370370371.034493198311102.489310506

15200760.8171193172.225.580845367527.1909583333636530000005441500000080853000779160009444000000790300000054209000000465120000000.73063750.7971408333100.302497479299.61750318751019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214698.38030699730.69488035380

16200730193172.225.580845367527.19095833339601000000829600000093070008659000368000000306000000923300000079900000005.36453566675.83779325102.7783333333102.06251019.327120863601005.0367710214958.07830003460.95327686280

17 200776.4178193172.225.580845367527.190958333372470000006359000000668000064350008590000008180000006388000000554100000020.293666666722.5955833333108.7741666667105.56083333331019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214988.18958818960.983237247311102.489310506

18200758193172.225.580845367527.19095833331472600000012852000000844800078630001.20036583331.253843333301005.03677102141634.49065242271.6262993550

19200724.6193172.225.580845367527.190958333312277000000939400000052240004729000163500000012240000001064200000081700000006.758777.3782491667100.899166666799.47251019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141986.46648340031.97651124880

20 2007100.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863601005.0367710214000

1200831.3197.519324.85287525.5808453675243460000002108800000021935000207730002716000000252900000021630000000185590000000.68267471120.7306375100.7100.01083333331128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151015.1639146970.910579407511208.0336989083

2200896.2208197.519324.85287525.58084536754852000000418100000057800005151000546000000468000000430600000037130000001.33711666671.42905120.701178353110.39767329461128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715811.6870510580.728065195511208.0336989083

3200820.5330197.519324.85287525.580845367553495000000493320000002488400024421000134740000001323100000040021000000361010000000.68267471120.7306375101.5325127709100.98917490981128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152020.06469841531.811953015211208.0336989083

42008349197.519324.85287525.5808453675175860000001568700000015939000161650000.68267471120.730637511114.8549004715970.42994123110.87045403020

52008104.8365197.519324.85287525.5808453675702440000006502000000057192000586660008266000000728600000061978000000577340000000.68267471120.7306375106.0901015017103.20172002871128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151108.30804895510.99412762010

62008145.6398197.519324.85287525.5808453675487570000004614400000042734000436540002565000000348400000046192000000426600000000.68267471120.7306375101.9775164793100.48500404171128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151057.0394465570.948140826311208.0336989083

7200810.2197.519324.85287525.580845367558570000005037000000434700043770001050000000815000000480700000042220000005.645.8616666667100.4491666667100.38416666671128.725726217201114.85490047151150.78821110351.03223137880

820089.546197.519324.85287525.5808453675128370000001168600000012960000149750001069000000108700000011768000000105990000002.40924166672.76795115.9348672094105.67911934071128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715780.3672787980.699972057811208.0336989083

920081587197.519324.85287525.5808453675462850000004819300000030142000308700009861000000949500000036424000000386980000000.543966250.499771666792.1482679022105.17920982671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151561.1597019761.40032546060

10200814.8197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217211114.8549004715000

11200846197.519324.85287525.58084536751134000000880000000168400016530000.48081666670.513791666711114.8549004715532.36539624920.47751989610

12200878197.519324.85287525.580845367514100000001192000000161100014860002.3570752.52372511114.8549004715802.15343203230.71951375170

13200877197.519324.85287525.5808453675163900000014160000001970000190000010.694443093811.433852996211114.8549004715745.26315789470.66848444370

14200847.5667197.519324.85287525.5808453675486100000042870000003583000351900016410000001450000000322000000028370000000.68267471120.7306375102.7916899307100.54667122231128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151218.24381926681.09273755611208.0336989083

152008104.3229197.519324.85287525.58084536756778300000063653000000792180008085300010547000000944400000057236000000542090000000.68267471120.7306375101.6541528821100.30249747921128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715787.26825226030.70616207720

16200851.6197.519324.85287525.5808453675116810000009601000000941500093070004010000003680000001128000000092330000004.935039755.3645356667107.4766666667102.77833333331128.725726217201114.85490047151031.5891264640.92531245640

17 200887.5227197.519324.85287525.5808453675821300000072470000006649000668000010090000008590000007204000000638800000017.071666666720.2936666667125.5341666667108.77416666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151084.8802395210.973113397111208.0336989083

18200883197.519324.85287525.58084536751756700000014726000000860800084480001.083091.200365833301114.85490047151743.1344696971.56355277170

19200831.3197.519324.85287525.58084536751286600000012277000000455500052240001840000000163500000011026000000106420000006.59109916676.7587798.9008333333100.89916666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152350.11485451762.10800064970

20 2008254.6197.519324.85287525.58084536