77 04 PUD Production Decline Curve Before

8/10/2019 77 04 PUD Production Decline Curve Before

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Ultra Petroleum Corp. - Assumptions - NAV Model by Geography and Reserve Type

($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)

Model-Wide Toggles & Assumptions:

Company Name:

Current Share Price:Bbl to Mcfe Conversion Factor:

Units (for Conversions):

Discount Rate:

Allow Circular References:

Price Deck Case:

Long-Term Gas Price (for Strip Pricing);

Long-Term Oil Price (for Strip Pricing):

Drilling Schedule:

Tax Depreciation Schedule (for Development CapEx):

Most Recent Quarter End Date:

Valuation Date:

"Remainder Date" for NAV Model:

End of Year 1 Fiscal Year:

Year One Production Months:

Adjustment Factor for Stub Period:

Tax and DD&A Assumptions:

Lower Initial Tax Rate:

# of Effective Years for Initial Tax Rate:Statutory Tax Rate:

NOL Carryforwards ($ in 000's):

Leasehold CapEx:

Proved Reserves (Mmcfe):

Max Reserves to be Migrated to Proved (Mmcfe):

F&D Cost per Mcfe for Migrated Reserves ($ as Stated):

CapEx Associated with Unproved Reserves ($ in 000's):

Intangible Drilling Costs (IDC) % Development CapEx (Expensed):

Tangible Costs % Development CapEx (Capitalized):

Net PP&E on Balance Sheet:

DTL from Tax Depreciation and D&D Costs:

Effective Tax Rate:

Implied Accumulated DD&A - Tax Basis:

Implied Tax Basis of Net PP&E - For Use in Cash Tax Calculation:

Tax Depreciation Schedules (MACRS) - Development CapEx:


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1

Selected: 1 2 3 4

Year 3-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year

1

2

34

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Total:

Value of Undeveloped Acreage: Net Acres: $ / Acre: Value (MM):

Total Value of Undeveloped Acreage:

Net Asset Value - Implied Per Share Price, by Reserve Type and Region

Unrisked Reserve Risked Base @ Other

Category: Bcfe Credit Bcfe Case:

PDP

PDNPPUD

PROB

POSS

Pre-Tax Asset Value:

NAV by Reserve Type and Region (for PROB and POSS Reserves):

PD

PUD

WY

PA

UTPre-Tax Asset Value:

Less: NPV of G&A:

+ / - NPV of Hedges:

Less: NPV of Cash Taxes:

After-Tax Asset Value:

Plus: Value of Undeveloped Acreage:

Total Asset Value:


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Less: Net Debt & Preferred:

Net Asset Value:

Diluted Shares Outstanding:

NAV / Share:

Current Share Price:

Current Share Price Premium / (Discount) to NAV:

AW12 AY12

AW9 G322 AK322

G172 AK172

Diluted Shares Calculations:

Common Shares: Dilution from Option

RSUs & Other Common Share-Equiv.:

Dilution from Options & Other: Name Number

Total Diluted Shares:

Total:


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Production and Well Assumptions:

Ultra Petroleum Corp.

18.83$ Universal Assumptions:6 LOE per Mcfe: 0.37$

1,000 Production Taxes per Mcfe: 0.31

10.0% Other Operating Expenses per Mcfe: 0.58

No G&A Expense per Mcfe: 0.07

1 Wells by Region - Base Assumptions: PD

4.50$ Working Interest: N/A

80.00$ Royalty Rate: N/A

1 EUR (Mmcfe): N/A

1 IP Rate (Mmcfe / d): N/A

D&C Cost Per Well ($ in MMs): N/A

9/30/2013 % Gas: 96.7%

11/1/2013 % NGLs: 0.0%

12/31/2053 % Oil: 3.3%

12/31/2013

3 Toggles for Sensitivities:

25%

Differential

vs. Base: PD

Working Interest: 0.0% N/A

Royalty Rate: 0.0% N/AEUR (Mmcfe): 0.0% N/A

IP Rate (Mmcfe / d): 0.0% N/A

D&C Cost Per Well ($ in MMs): 0.0% N/A

% Gas: 0.0% 96.7%

% NGLs: 0.0% 0.0%

% Oil: 0.0% 3.3%

Reserve Credit Cases

Reserve Credit Case: 2 6 6

Region:

Category: PD WY PA

PDP 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PDNP 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PUD 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PROB 75.0% 50.0% 50.0%


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POSS 75.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Reserve Credit Cases 1 2 3

PDP 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PDNP 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PUD 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PROB 100.0% 75.0% 50.0%POSS 100.0% 75.0% 50.0%

Price Deck

1

Selected: Case 1: Strip Pricing

Case 1: Strip Pricing

Gas Oil Gas Oil

Year $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl

2013 3.70$ 101.00$ 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 3.80 92.00 3.80 92.00

2015 4.00 88.00 4.00 88.00

2016 4.10 84.00 4.10 84.00

2017 4.20 82.00 4.20 82.00

LT 4.50 80.00 4.50 80.00

Drilling Schedules - Gross Wells Drilled

1

Long-Term Gas Prices: Selected Drilling Case:

Base Gas Case

Year WY PA UT Total

2013 122 24 0 1462014 135 40 0 175

2015 145 60 0 205

2016 155 75 0 230

2017 165 90 0 255

2018 175 100 0 275

2019 175 100 0 275

2020 175 100 0 275

2021 175 100 0 275

2022 175 100 0 275

2023 175 100 0 275

2024 175 100 0 2752025 175 100 0 275

2026 175 100 0 275

2027 175 100 0 275

2028 175 100 0 275

2029 175 100 0 275

2030 175 100 0 275

2031 175 100 0 275

2032 175 100 0 275


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2033 175 100 0 275

2034 175 100 0 275

2035 175 100 0 275

2036 175 100 0 275

2037 175 100 0 275

2038 175 100 0 275

2039 175 100 0 2752040 0 0 0 0

2041 0 0 0 0

2042 0 0 0 0

2043 0 0 0 0

2044 0 0 0 0

2045 0 0 0 0

2046 0 0 0 0

s, Warrants & Other: 2047 0 0 0 0

2048 0 0 0 0

Price Dilution 2049 0 0 0 0

2050 0 0 0 0

2051 0 0 0 0

2052 0 0 0 0

2053 0 0 0 0

Total: 4,572 2,489 0 7,061

-

Sensitivity Tables - NAV Analysis - Ultra Petroleum Corp.

Implied NAV per Share - Well EUR Differentials vs. Long-Term G

Long-Term

GasPrices:

Implied NAV per Share - Well IP Rate Differentials vs. Long-Term


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Long-Term

GasPrices:

Implied NAV per Share - Well D&C Cost Differentials vs. Long-Te

Long-Term

GasPrices:

Implied NAV per Share - LOE Per Mcfe Differentials vs. Long-Ter

Long-Term

GasPrices:


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Gas % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 94.0%

Oil % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 93.0%

NGL as % of Oil Price: 50.0%

WY PA UT

58.0% 50.9% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

4,292.5 7,694.2 -

7.7 6.4 -

4.1$ 7.0$ -$

96.2% 96.2%

0.0% 0.0%

3.8% 3.8%

WY PA UT

58.0% 50.9% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%4,292.5 7,694.2 -

7.7 6.4 -

4.1$ 7.0$ -$

96.2% 96.2% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3.8% 3.8% 0.0%

6

UT

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

50.0%


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10.0%

4 5 6

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

25.0% 75.0% 50.0%25.0% 50.0% 10.0%

Case 2: High Gas Case 3: Mid Gas Case 4: Low Gas Case 5: Stable

Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil

$ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl

3.70$ 101.00$ 3.70$ 101.00$ 3.70$ 101.00$ 4.50$ 80.00$

4.00 92.00 3.80 92.00 3.50 92.00 4.50 80.00

4.50 88.00 3.90 88.00 3.25 88.00 4.50 80.00

5.00 84.00 4.00 84.00 3.00 84.00 4.50 80.00

5.50 82.00 4.00 82.00 2.50 82.00 4.50 80.00

5.50 80.00 4.00 80.00 2.50 80.00 4.50 80.00

Base Gas Case High Gas Case

WY PA UT WY PA UT

122 24 122 24135 40 140 45

145 60 160 75

155 75 170 100

165 90 180 120

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135


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175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 135

175 100 190 1350 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

4,572 2,489 4,952 3,334

s Prices:

Gas Prices:


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rm Gas Prices:

Gas Prices:


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Case 6: SEC Prices

Gas Oil

$ / Mcf $ / Bbl

2.63$ 87.85$

2.63 87.85

2.63 87.85

2.63 87.85

2.63 87.85

2.63 87.85

Sanity Checking the Drilling Sch

Low Gas Case D&C CapEx: PDNP PDP

WY PA UT WY PA CapEx CapEx

122 24 290$ 86$ -$ 25$120 25 321 143 71 23

130 35 345 214 - 20

140 45 369 267 - 18

150 55 392 321 - 16

160 75 416 356 - 14

160 75 416 356 - 12

160 75 416 356 - 11

160 75 416 356 - 10

160 75 416 356 - 8

160 75 416 356 - 7

160 75 416 356 - 7160 75 416 356 - 6

160 75 416 356 - 5

160 75 416 356 - 5

160 75 416 356 - 4

160 75 416 356 - 4

160 75 416 356 - 3

160 75 416 356 - 3

160 75 416 356 - 2


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160 75 416 356 - 2

160 75 416 356 - 1

160 75 416 356 - -

160 75 416 356 - -

160 75 416 356 - -

160 75 416 356 - -

160 75 416 356 - -0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

0 0 - - - -

4,182 1,834


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edule #s:

Total Gas

CapEx: Price: Company's Estimated Annual CapEx:

401$ 3.70$ $385 - $415MM (Pg. 6 of 8-K)557 3.80 $520 - $560MM, w/ $68M from Utah (Pg. 10 Q3 earnings transcript)

578 4.00

653 4.10 # Gross

729 4.20 Wells D&C WI

786 4.50 WY: 5,000.0 4.1$ 58.0%

785 4.50 PA: 3,340.0 7.0 50.9%

783 4.50 Total: 8,340.0

782 4.50

781 4.50 2007 2008 2009

780 4.50 Property CapEx: 696$ 950$ 674$

779 4.50 Gas Prices Before Hedging: 4.66$ 7.11$ 3.49$778 4.50

778 4.50 WY Wells Drilled - Gross: 151.0 228.0 163.0

777 4.50 PA Wells Drilled - Gross: 2.0 - 35.0

776 4.50 Total Gross Wells: 153.0 228.0 198.0

776 4.50

776 4.50 WY Wells Drilled - Net: 76.1 121.5 78.9

775 4.50 PA Wells Drilled - Net: 1.1 - 21.0

775 4.50 Total Net Wells: 77.2 121.5 99.9


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775 4.50

774 4.50 Average D&C Cost Per Well: 9.0$ 7.8$ 6.7$

772 4.50

772 4.50 For 2007-2009 #s, please see the 2009 10-K linked to in this lesson.

772 4.50

772 4.50

772 4.50- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

- 4.50

20,016$


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2010 2011 2012

1,164$ 1,436$ 708$

4.31$ 4.15$ 2.79$

181.0 200.0 122.0

171.0 185.0 24.0

352.0 385.0 146.0

94.5 113.5 44.2

99.0 87.1 26.9

193.5 200.6 71.1


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6.0$ 7.2$ 10.0$


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Reserves Information & Data Required for NAV Model

Implie

Implied Implied Gross W

Developed Developed Working Undeveloped Undeveloped Working at Cur

Region: Acres - Gross Acres - Net Interest: Acres - Gross Acres - Net Interest: SpaciWY 22,000 10,000 45.5% 62,000 39,000 62.9%

PA 111,000 58,000 52.3% 386,000 203,000 52.6%

CO - - N/A 154,000 139,000 90.3%

Reserves Data: 2009 2010 2011 2012

Proved Developed Reserves:

Natural Gas (Mmcf): 1,541,813 1,678,697 1,973,391 1,820,994

Oil (MBbl): 11,627 11,013 11,794 10,531

Total Proved Developed Reserves: 1,611,575 1,744,775 2,044,155 1,884,180

Proved Undeveloped Reserves:

Natural Gas (Mmcf): 2,194,788 2,521,458 2,805,163 1,145,451

Oil (MBbl): 17,558 20,671 21,287 7,606

Total Proved Undeveloped Reserves: 2,300,136 2,645,484 2,932,885 1,191,087

Total Proved Reserves (Mmcfe): 3,911,711 4,390,259 4,977,040 3,075,267

Proved Reserves (Bcfe): 4,977 3,075

Average EU

Proved Undeveloped Reserves (Bcfe): 2,933 1,191 for PUD + PR

Probable Reserves (Bcfe): 5,244 8,022 Wells Imp

Possible Reserves (Bcfe): 4,212 5,841 Future Ne

Total PUD + PROB + POSS: 12,389 15,054

Gas Oil Total Gross Future CapEx CapEx

Net Reserves: (Mmcf) (MBbl) (Mmcfe) % Gas: % Oil: Wells ($ MMs) Well ($

PDP 1,795,000 10,300 1,856,800 96.7% 3.3% 2,177 205$ $

PDNP 129,000 500 132,000 97.7% 2.3% 112 71

PUD 1,149,000 7,600 1,194,600 96.2% 3.8% 598 1,386

Weighted Avg.: 3,183,400 96.5% 3.5%

Proved Developed Reserves Resource Split: 96.7% 3.3%

Proved Undeveloped Reserves Resource Split: 96.2% 3.8%


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2010 2011 2012

Average Gas Price

Before Hedging: $4.31 $4.31 $4.15 $4.15 $2.79 $2.79 $3.7

Wells Drilled: Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gro

WY 181.0 94.5 200.0 113.5 111.0 44.2 PA 171.0 99.0 185.0 87.1 64.0 26.9

Total: 352.0 193.5 385.0 200.6 175.0 71.1

Wells Drilled / Gas Price: 81.7 x 44.9 x 92.8 x 48.3 x 62.7 x 25.5 x

Gross Net

Total Proved Wells: 2,334.0 1,145.5

Proved Developed Producing Wells:

WY 1,850.0

PA 322.0

Total: 2,172.0

Avg. Future Current Current Current Plus

Future Future Working Gross PD Net PD Future Net Net EUR Gross

Region: Net Wells: Gross Wells: Interest: Wells: Wells: Wells: (Bcfe): (Bcfe

WY 2,900.0 5,000.0 58.0% 1,906.0 955.9 3,855.9 2.5

PA 1,700.0 3,340.0 50.9% 378.0 189.6 1,889.6 3.9

UT

Potential Future Net Wells by Type: PUD PROB POSS POT

WY 229.4 1,545.3 1,125.2

PA 134.5 905.9 659.6

UT

Total Future Net Wells: 364.0 2,451.2 1,784.8


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Cash Flow Assumptions

PD Reserves (PDP and PDNP) Single Well Assumptio

Net Remaining Reserves (Mmcfe) 1,988,800 Working Interest:

Current PDP Production (Mmcfe / d) 632 Royalty Rate:

Production Decline Rate 11.6% EUR (Mmcfe):Reserve Life (Years): 22 IP Rate (Mmcfe / d):

Stub Period Adjustment 25.0% D&C Cost Per Well ($

Future CapEx, PDP ($

Future CapEx, PDNP (

% Gas:

% NGLs:

% Oil:

Assumptions for All W

LOE per Mcfe:

Production Taxes per

Other Operating Exp

Reserve Report Output

PDP

Production (Net): Price Deck

Gas Oil NGLs Total Gas Oil

Year Mmcf MBbl MBbl Mmcfe $ / Mcf $ / Bbl2013 223,125 1,252 0 230,640 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 197,320 1,108 0 203,966 3.80 92.00

2015 174,500 980 0 180,377 4.00 88.00

2016 154,741 869 0 159,953 4.10 84.00

2017 136,471 766 0 141,067 4.20 82.00

2018 120,688 677 0 124,752 4.50 80.00

2019 106,730 599 0 110,324 4.50 80.00

2020 94,645 531 0 97,832 4.50 80.00

2021 83,470 469 0 86,281 4.50 80.00

2022 73,817 414 0 76,303 4.50 80.00

2023 65,280 366 0 67,478 4.50 80.002024 57,888 325 0 59,838 4.50 80.00

2025 51,053 287 0 52,773 4.50 80.00

2026 45,149 253 0 46,669 4.50 80.00

2027 39,927 224 0 41,272 4.50 80.00

2028 35,406 199 0 36,599 4.50 80.00

2029 31,226 175 0 32,277 4.50 80.00

2030 27,614 155 0 28,544 4.50 80.00

2031 24,421 137 0 25,243 4.50 80.00


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2032 21,656 122 0 22,385 4.50 80.00

2033 19,099 107 0 19,742 4.50 80.00

2034 12,076 68 0 12,483 4.50 80.00

2035 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2036 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2037 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2038 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002039 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2040 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2041 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2042 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2043 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2044 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2045 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2046 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2047 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2048 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2049 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2050 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2051 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2052 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2053 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Subtotal: 1,796,301 10,083 0 1,856,800

Remainder: 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Total: 1,796,301 10,083 0 1,856,800

PDNP



Year Mmcf MBbl MBbl Mmcfe $ / Mcf $ / Bbl

2013 0 0 0 0 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 127,699 717 0 132,000 3.80 92.00

2015 0 0 0 0 4.00 88.00

2016 0 0 0 0 4.10 84.00

2017 0 0 0 0 4.20 82.00

2018 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2019 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2020 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002021 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2022 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2023 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2024 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2025 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2026 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2027 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2028 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00


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2029 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2030 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2031 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2032 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2033 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2034 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2035 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002036 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2037 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2038 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2039 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2040 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2041 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2042 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2043 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2044 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2045 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2046 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2047 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2048 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2049 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2050 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2051 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2052 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2053 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Subtotal: 127,699 717 0 132,000

Remainder: 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Total: 127,699 717 0 132,000

PUD

This area is intentionally left blank - not applicable on this tab - please do NOTenter data here.


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PROB



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POSS



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TOTAL




2013 223,125 1,252 0 230,640 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 325,019 1,824 0 335,966 3.80 92.00

2015 174,500 980 0 180,377 4.00 88.00

2016 154,741 869 0 159,953 4.10 84.00


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2017 136,471 766 0 141,067 4.20 82.00

2018 120,688 677 0 124,752 4.50 80.00

2019 106,730 599 0 110,324 4.50 80.00

2020 94,645 531 0 97,832 4.50 80.00

2021 83,470 469 0 86,281 4.50 80.00

2022 73,817 414 0 76,303 4.50 80.00

2023 65,280 366 0 67,478 4.50 80.002024 57,888 325 0 59,838 4.50 80.00

2025 51,053 287 0 52,773 4.50 80.00

2026 45,149 253 0 46,669 4.50 80.00

2027 39,927 224 0 41,272 4.50 80.00

2028 35,406 199 0 36,599 4.50 80.00

2029 31,226 175 0 32,277 4.50 80.00

2030 27,614 155 0 28,544 4.50 80.00

2031 24,421 137 0 25,243 4.50 80.00

2032 21,656 122 0 22,385 4.50 80.00

2033 19,099 107 0 19,742 4.50 80.00

2034 12,076 68 0 12,483 4.50 80.00

2035 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2036 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2037 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2038 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2039 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2040 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2041 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2042 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2043 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2044 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002045 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2046 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2047 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2048 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2049 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2050 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2051 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2052 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2053 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Subtotal: 1,924,000 10,800 0 1,988,800

Remainder: 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00Total: 1,924,000 10,800 0 1,988,800


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ns: Oil, Gas & NGL Pricing:

N/A Gas % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 94.0%

N/A Oil % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 93.0%

N/A NGL as % of Oil Price: 50.0%N/A

in MMs): N/A

in MMs): 205

$ in MMs): 71

96.7%

0.0%

3.3%

ells in Model:

0.37$

Mcfe: 0.31

nses per Mcfe: 0.58

PDP

Realized Prices Revenue

NGLs Gas Oil NGLs Gas Oil NGLs

$ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Bbl ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's)50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$ 776,030$ 117,645$ -$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78 704,828 94,768 -

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92 656,119 80,164 -

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06 596,372 67,856 -

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13 538,787 58,419 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 510,509 50,403 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 451,467 44,574 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 400,348 39,527 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 353,079 34,860 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 312,244 30,828 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 276,132 27,263 -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 244,866 24,176 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 215,955 21,321 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 190,979 18,855 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 168,892 16,675 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 149,768 14,787 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 132,085 13,041 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 116,809 11,533 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 103,300 10,199 -


39/158

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 91,603 9,044 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 80,788 7,976 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 51,082 5,043 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

7,122,043 798,955 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

7,122,043 798,955 -

PDNP



$ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Bbl ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's)

50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$ -$ -$ -$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78 456,141 61,331 -

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92 - - -

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06 - - -

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -


40/158

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

456,141 61,331 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

456,141 61,331 -

PUD


41/158

PROB


42/158

POSS


43/158

TOTAL




50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$ 776,030$ 117,645$ -$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78 1,160,970 156,099 -

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92 656,119 80,164 -

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06 596,372 67,856 -


44/158

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13 538,787 58,419 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 510,509 50,403 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 451,467 44,574 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 400,348 39,527 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 353,079 34,860 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 312,244 30,828 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 276,132 27,263 -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 244,866 24,176 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 215,955 21,321 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 190,979 18,855 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 168,892 16,675 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 149,768 14,787 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 132,085 13,041 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 116,809 11,533 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 103,300 10,199 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 91,603 9,044 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 80,788 7,976 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 51,082 5,043 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

7,578,184 860,285 -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -7,578,184 860,285 -


45/158

Operations Data and Metrics:

Gas Oil NGLs Total

Reserves: Mmcf MBbl MBbl Mmcfe

PDP Reserves: 1,795,000 10,300 - 1,856,800

PDNP Reserves: 129,000 500 - 132,000Total PD Reserves: 1,924,000 10,800 - 1,988,800

Gas Oil NGLs Total

Production: Mmcf MBbl MBbl Mmcfe

Last Quarter: 55,718 297 - 57,502

Days in Quarter: 91

Run-Rate Operational Metrics:

Production (Mmcfe / d): 631.89

Proved R / P Ratio: 13.33

PD R / P Ratio: 8.62

Proved Reserves, % Gas: 96.5%

Proved Reserves, % Oil: 3.5%

Proved Reserves, % NGLs: 0.0%

Operating Expenses

Total Prod. Taxes Prod. Taxes LOE LOE Other Other

($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's)893,675$ 0.31$ 71,498$ 0.37$ 85,337$ 0.58$ 133,771$

799,596 0.31 63,229 0.37 75,467 0.58 118,300

736,283 0.31 55,917 0.37 66,739 0.58 104,619

664,228 0.31 49,585 0.37 59,183 0.58 92,773

597,207 0.31 43,731 0.37 52,195 0.58 81,819

560,912 0.31 38,673 0.37 46,158 0.58 72,356

496,041 0.31 34,201 0.37 40,820 0.58 63,988

439,874 0.31 30,328 0.37 36,198 0.58 56,743

387,939 0.31 26,747 0.37 31,924 0.58 50,043

343,072 0.31 23,654 0.37 28,232 0.58 44,256

303,395 0.31 20,918 0.37 24,967 0.58 39,137269,042 0.31 18,550 0.37 22,140 0.58 34,706

237,276 0.31 16,360 0.37 19,526 0.58 30,608

209,834 0.31 14,467 0.37 17,268 0.58 27,068

185,566 0.31 12,794 0.37 15,271 0.58 23,938

164,555 0.31 11,346 0.37 13,542 0.58 21,227

145,126 0.31 10,006 0.37 11,943 0.58 18,721

128,342 0.31 8,849 0.37 10,561 0.58 16,556

113,499 0.31 7,825 0.37 9,340 0.58 14,641


46/158

100,647 0.31 6,939 0.37 8,282 0.58 12,983

88,764 0.31 6,120 0.37 7,305 0.58 11,450

56,126 0.31 3,870 0.37 4,619 0.58 7,240

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

7,920,998 575,608 687,016 1,076,944

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

7,920,998 575,608 687,016 1,076,944

Operating Expenses


($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's)

-$ 0.31$ -$ 0.37$ -$ 0.58$ -$

517,472 0.31 40,920 0.37 48,840 0.58 76,560

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -


47/158

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

517,472 40,920 48,840 76,560

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

517,472 40,920 48,840 76,560


48/158


49/158


50/158

Operating Expenses



893,675$ 0.31$ 71,498$ 0.37$ 85,337$ 0.58$ 133,771$

1,317,068 0.31 104,149 0.37 124,307 0.58 194,860

736,283 0.31 55,917 0.37 66,739 0.58 104,619

664,228 0.31 49,585 0.37 59,183 0.58 92,773


51/158

597,207 0.31 43,731 0.37 52,195 0.58 81,819

560,912 0.31 38,673 0.37 46,158 0.58 72,356

496,041 0.31 34,201 0.37 40,820 0.58 63,988

439,874 0.31 30,328 0.37 36,198 0.58 56,743

387,939 0.31 26,747 0.37 31,924 0.58 50,043

343,072 0.31 23,654 0.37 28,232 0.58 44,256

303,395 0.31 20,918 0.37 24,967 0.58 39,137269,042 0.31 18,550 0.37 22,140 0.58 34,706

237,276 0.31 16,360 0.37 19,526 0.58 30,608

209,834 0.31 14,467 0.37 17,268 0.58 27,068

185,566 0.31 12,794 0.37 15,271 0.58 23,938

164,555 0.31 11,346 0.37 13,542 0.58 21,227

145,126 0.31 10,006 0.37 11,943 0.58 18,721

128,342 0.31 8,849 0.37 10,561 0.58 16,556

113,499 0.31 7,825 0.37 9,340 0.58 14,641

100,647 0.31 6,939 0.37 8,282 0.58 12,983

88,764 0.31 6,120 0.37 7,305 0.58 11,450

56,126 0.31 3,870 0.37 4,619 0.58 7,240

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -

8,438,470 616,528 735,856 1,153,504

- 0.31 - 0.37 - 0.58 -8,438,470 616,528 735,856 1,153,504


52/158

PDP

Cash Flow Discounte

Total EBITDAX CapEx Cash Flow Discount

($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period290,607$ 603,068$ 25,464$ 577,604$ 12/31/2013 0.08

256,997 542,599 22,519 520,080 12/31/2014 0.67

227,275 509,008 19,915 489,094 12/31/2015 1.67

201,540 462,688 17,660 445,028 12/31/2016 2.67

177,745 419,462 15,575 403,887 12/31/2017 3.67

157,188 403,724 13,773 389,950 12/31/2018 4.67

139,009 357,032 12,180 344,852 12/31/2019 5.67

123,269 316,605 10,801 305,804 12/31/2020 6.67

108,715 279,224 9,526 269,698 12/31/2021 7.67

96,141 246,931 8,424 238,507 12/31/2022 8.67

85,022 218,373 7,450 210,923 12/31/2023 9.6775,395 193,646 6,606 187,040 12/31/2024 10.67

66,493 170,783 5,826 164,956 12/31/2025 11.67

58,803 151,031 5,153 145,879 12/31/2026 12.67

52,003 133,564 4,557 129,007 12/31/2027 13.67

46,114 118,440 4,041 114,400 12/31/2028 14.67

40,670 104,456 3,564 100,893 12/31/2029 15.67

35,966 92,376 3,151 89,224 12/31/2030 16.67

31,806 81,692 2,787 78,905 12/31/2031 17.67


53/158

28,205 72,442 2,471 69,971 12/31/2032 18.67

24,875 63,889 2,180 61,709 12/31/2033 19.67

15,728 40,397 1,378 39,019 12/31/2034 20.67

- - - - 12/31/2035 21.67

- - - - 12/31/2036 22.67

- - - - 12/31/2037 23.67

- - - - 12/31/2038 24.67- - - - 12/31/2039 25.67

- - - - 12/31/2040 26.67

- - - - 12/31/2041 27.67

- - - - 12/31/2042 28.67

- - - - 12/31/2043 29.67

- - - - 12/31/2044 30.67

- - - - 12/31/2045 31.67

- - - - 12/31/2046 32.67

- - - - 12/31/2047 33.67

- - - - 12/31/2048 34.67

- - - - 12/31/2049 35.67

- - - - 12/31/2050 36.67

- - - - 12/31/2051 37.67

- - - - 12/31/2052 38.67

- - - - 12/31/2053 39.67

2,339,568 5,581,430 205,000 5,376,430

- - - - 12/31/2053 39.67

2,339,568 5,581,430 205,000 5,376,430

PDNP

Cash Flow Discounte


($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

-$ -$ -$ -$ 12/31/2013 0.08

166,320 351,152 71,000 280,152 12/31/2014 0.67

- - - - 12/31/2015 1.67

- - - - 12/31/2016 2.67

- - - - 12/31/2017 3.67

- - - - 12/31/2018 4.67

- - - - 12/31/2019 5.67

- - - - 12/31/2020 6.67- - - - 12/31/2021 7.67

- - - - 12/31/2022 8.67

- - - - 12/31/2023 9.67

- - - - 12/31/2024 10.67

- - - - 12/31/2025 11.67

- - - - 12/31/2026 12.67

- - - - 12/31/2027 13.67

- - - - 12/31/2028 14.67


54/158

- - - - 12/31/2029 15.67

- - - - 12/31/2030 16.67

- - - - 12/31/2031 17.67

- - - - 12/31/2032 18.67

- - - - 12/31/2033 19.67

- - - - 12/31/2034 20.67

- - - - 12/31/2035 21.67- - - - 12/31/2036 22.67

- - - - 12/31/2037 23.67

- - - - 12/31/2038 24.67

- - - - 12/31/2039 25.67

- - - - 12/31/2040 26.67

- - - - 12/31/2041 27.67

- - - - 12/31/2042 28.67

- - - - 12/31/2043 29.67

- - - - 12/31/2044 30.67

- - - - 12/31/2045 31.67

- - - - 12/31/2046 32.67

- - - - 12/31/2047 33.67

- - - - 12/31/2048 34.67

- - - - 12/31/2049 35.67

- - - - 12/31/2050 36.67

- - - - 12/31/2051 37.67

- - - - 12/31/2052 38.67

- - - - 12/31/2053 39.67

166,320 351,152 71,000 280,152

- - - - 12/31/2053 39.67

166,320 351,152 71,000 280,152

PUD


55/158

PROB


56/158

POSS


57/158

TOTAL

Cash Flow Discounte


($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

290,607$ 603,068$ 25,464$ 577,604$

423,317 893,751 93,519 800,232

227,275 509,008 19,915 489,094

201,540 462,688 17,660 445,028


58/158

177,745 419,462 15,575 403,887

157,188 403,724 13,773 389,950

139,009 357,032 12,180 344,852

123,269 316,605 10,801 305,804

108,715 279,224 9,526 269,698

96,141 246,931 8,424 238,507

85,022 218,373 7,450 210,92375,395 193,646 6,606 187,040

66,493 170,783 5,826 164,956

58,803 151,031 5,153 145,879

52,003 133,564 4,557 129,007

46,114 118,440 4,041 114,400

40,670 104,456 3,564 100,893

35,966 92,376 3,151 89,224

31,806 81,692 2,787 78,905

28,205 72,442 2,471 69,971

24,875 63,889 2,180 61,709

15,728 40,397 1,378 39,019

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

2,505,888 5,932,582 276,000 5,656,582

- - - -2,505,888 5,932,582 276,000 5,656,582


59/158

Acreage and Drilling Locations

Drilling Locations and Risked Reserves

Reserve Working

Location Risking: Credit Interest

PDP 100.0% N/APDNP 100.0% N/A

PUD 100.0% N/A

PROB 75.0% N/A

POSS 75.0% N/A

Total:

Proved Developed Reserves - Annual Production and Decline Rate

PDP - Annual Production

Decline Rate: 11.6%

Cash Flow Reserve Life (Years): 22

Discount DCF Beginning

Factor ($ 000's) Period Year Days Reserves0.99 143,259$ 0 2013 365 1,856,800

0.94 488,062 1 2014 365 1,626,160

0.85 417,257 2 2015 365 1,422,194

0.78 345,149 3 2016 366 1,241,817

0.71 284,765 4 2017 365 1,081,864

0.64 249,944 5 2018 365 940,797

0.58 200,943 6 2019 365 816,044

0.53 161,991 7 2020 366 705,720

0.48 129,877 8 2021 365 607,887

0.44 104,415 9 2022 365 521,606

0.40 83,945 10 2023 365 445,3030.36 67,673 11 2024 366 377,825

0.33 54,257 12 2025 365 317,987

0.30 43,620 13 2026 365 265,215

0.27 35,068 14 2027 365 218,546

0.25 28,270 15 2028 366 177,274

0.22 22,666 16 2029 365 140,675

0.20 18,222 17 2030 365 108,398

0.19 14,650 18 2031 365 79,853


60/158

0.17 11,810 19 2032 366 54,610

0.15 9,469 20 2033 365 32,225

0.14 5,443 21 2034 365 12,483

0.13 - 22 2035 365 -

0.12 - 23 2036 366 -

0.10 - 24 2037 365 -

0.10 - 25 2038 365 -0.09 - 26 2039 365 -

0.08 - 27 2040 366 -

0.07 - 28 2041 365 -

0.07 - 29 2042 365 -

0.06 - 30 2043 365 -

0.05 - 31 2044 366 -

0.05 - 32 2045 365 -

0.04 - 33 2046 365 -

0.04 - 34 2047 365 -

0.04 - 35 2048 366 -

0.03 - 36 2049 365 -

0.03 - 37 2050 365 -

0.03 - 38 2051 365 -

0.03 - 39 2052 366 -

0.02 - 40 2053 365 -

2,920,757$ Subtotal:

0.02 - Remainder:

2,920,757$ Total:

PDNP - Annual Production

Cash Flow

Discount DCF Beginning

Factor ($ 000's) Period Year Days Reserves

0.99 -$ 0 2013 365 132,000

0.94 262,905 1 2014 365 132,000

0.85 - 2 2015 365 -

0.78 - 3 2016 366 -

0.71 - 4 2017 365 -

0.64 - 5 2018 365 -

0.58 - 6 2019 365 -

0.53 - 7 2020 366 -0.48 - 8 2021 365 -

0.44 - 9 2022 365 -

0.40 - 10 2023 365 -

0.36 - 11 2024 366 -

0.33 - 12 2025 365 -

0.30 - 13 2026 365 -

0.27 - 14 2027 365 -

0.25 - 15 2028 366 -


61/158

0.22 - 16 2029 365 -

0.20 - 17 2030 365 -

0.19 - 18 2031 365 -

0.17 - 19 2032 366 -

0.15 - 20 2033 365 -

0.14 - 21 2034 365 -

0.13 - 22 2035 365 -0.12 - 23 2036 366 -

0.10 - 24 2037 365 -

0.10 - 25 2038 365 -

0.09 - 26 2039 365 -

0.08 - 27 2040 366 -

0.07 - 28 2041 365 -

0.07 - 29 2042 365 -

0.06 - 30 2043 365 -

0.05 - 31 2044 366 -

0.05 - 32 2045 365 -

0.04 - 33 2046 365 -

0.04 - 34 2047 365 -

0.04 - 35 2048 366 -

0.03 - 36 2049 365 -

0.03 - 37 2050 365 -

0.03 - 38 2051 365 -

0.03 - 39 2052 366 -

0.02 - 40 2053 365 -

262,905$ Subtotal:

0.02 - Remainder:

262,905$ Total:


62/158


63/158


64/158

Cash Flow

Discount DCF

Factor ($ 000's)

143,259$

750,967

417,257

345,149


65/158

284,765

249,944

200,943

161,991

129,877

104,415

83,94567,673

54,257

43,620

35,068

28,270

22,666

18,222

14,650

11,810

9,469

5,443

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

--

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

3,183,662$

-3,183,662$


66/158

Unrisked Resources (Mmcfe) Risked Resources (Mmcfe)

Gross Net Gross Net

1,856,800 1,856,800132,000 132,000

1,988,800 1,988,800

s

Production Ending

Daily Annual Reserves632 230,640 1,626,160

559 203,966 1,422,194

494 180,377 1,241,817

437 159,953 1,081,864

386 141,067 940,797

342 124,752 816,044

302 110,324 705,720

267 97,832 607,887

236 86,281 521,606

209 76,303 445,303

185 67,478 377,825163 59,838 317,987

145 52,773 265,215

128 46,669 218,546

113 41,272 177,274

100 36,599 140,675

88 32,277 108,398

78 28,544 79,853

69 25,243 54,610

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 20

AnnualProductioninMmcfe

Proved Developed - Productio


67/158

61 22,385 32,225

54 19,742 12,483

48 12,483 -

42 0 -

37 0 -

33 0 -

29 0 -26 0 -

23 0 -

20 0 -

18 0 -

16 0 -

14 0 -

12 0 -

11 0 -

10 0 -

9 0 -

8 0 -

7 0 -

6 0 -

5 0 -

5 0 -

1,856,800

0

1,856,800

Production Ending

Daily Period Reserves

632 0 132,000

559 132,000 -

494 0 -

437 0 -

386 0 -

342 0 -

302 0 -

267 0 -236 0 -

209 0 -

185 0 -

163 0 -

145 0 -

128 0 -

113 0 -

100 0 -


68/158

88 0 -

78 0 -

69 0 -

61 0 -

54 0 -

48 0 -

42 0 -37 0 -

33 0 -

29 0 -

26 0 -

23 0 -

20 0 -

18 0 -

16 0 -

14 0 -

12 0 -

11 0 -

10 0 -

9 0 -

8 0 -

7 0 -

6 0 -

5 0 -

5 0 -

132,000

0

132,000


69/158


70/158


71/158


72/158


73/158

35 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053

n Decline Curve


74/158


75/158


76/158

Cash Flow Assumptions

Single Well Assumptio

Working Interest:

Royalty Rate:

EUR (Mmcfe):IP Rate (Mmcfe / d):

D&C Cost Per Well ($

Future CapEx, PDP ($

Future CapEx, PDNP (

% Gas:

% NGLs:

% Oil:

Assumptions for All W

LOE per Mcfe:

Production Taxes per

Other Operating Exp

Reserve Report Output

PDP



77/158

PDNP



78/158

PUD




2013 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 3.80 92.00

2015 4.00 88.00

2016 4.10 84.00

2017 4.20 82.002018 4.50 80.00

2019 4.50 80.00

2020 4.50 80.00

2021 4.50 80.00

2022 4.50 80.00

2023 4.50 80.00

2024 4.50 80.00

2025 4.50 80.00


79/158

2026 4.50 80.00

2027 4.50 80.00

2028 4.50 80.00

2029 4.50 80.00

2030 4.50 80.00

2031 4.50 80.00

2032 4.50 80.002033 4.50 80.00

2034 4.50 80.00

2035 4.50 80.00

2036 4.50 80.00

2037 4.50 80.00

2038 4.50 80.00

2039 4.50 80.00

2040 4.50 80.00

2041 4.50 80.00

2042 4.50 80.00

2043 4.50 80.00

2044 4.50 80.00

2045 4.50 80.00

2046 4.50 80.00

2047 4.50 80.00

2048 4.50 80.00

2049 4.50 80.00

2050 4.50 80.00

2051 4.50 80.00

2052 4.50 80.00

2053 4.50 80.00Subtotal:

Remainder:

Total:

PROB




2013 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 3.80 92.002015 4.00 88.00

2016 4.10 84.00

2017 4.20 82.00

2018 4.50 80.00

2019 4.50 80.00

2020 4.50 80.00

2021 4.50 80.00

2022 4.50 80.00


80/158

2023 4.50 80.00

2024 4.50 80.00

2025 4.50 80.00

2026 4.50 80.00

2027 4.50 80.00

2028 4.50 80.00

2029 4.50 80.002030 4.50 80.00

2031 4.50 80.00

2032 4.50 80.00

2033 4.50 80.00

2034 4.50 80.00

2035 4.50 80.00

2036 4.50 80.00

2037 4.50 80.00

2038 4.50 80.00

2039 4.50 80.00

2040 4.50 80.00

2041 4.50 80.00

2042 4.50 80.00

2043 4.50 80.00

2044 4.50 80.00

2045 4.50 80.00

2046 4.50 80.00

2047 4.50 80.00

2048 4.50 80.00

2049 4.50 80.00

2050 4.50 80.002051 4.50 80.00

2052 4.50 80.00

2053 4.50 80.00

Subtotal:

Remainder:

Total:

POSS


Gas Oil NGLs Total Gas OilYear Mmcf MBbl MBbl Mmcfe $ / Mcf $ / Bbl

2013 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 3.80 92.00

2015 4.00 88.00

2016 4.10 84.00

2017 4.20 82.00

2018 4.50 80.00

2019 4.50 80.00


81/158

2020 4.50 80.00

2021 4.50 80.00

2022 4.50 80.00

2023 4.50 80.00

2024 4.50 80.00

2025 4.50 80.00

2026 4.50 80.002027 4.50 80.00

2028 4.50 80.00

2029 4.50 80.00

2030 4.50 80.00

2031 4.50 80.00

2032 4.50 80.00

2033 4.50 80.00

2034 4.50 80.00

2035 4.50 80.00

2036 4.50 80.00

2037 4.50 80.00

2038 4.50 80.00

2039 4.50 80.00

2040 4.50 80.00

2041 4.50 80.00

2042 4.50 80.00

2043 4.50 80.00

2044 4.50 80.00

2045 4.50 80.00

2046 4.50 80.00

2047 4.50 80.002048 4.50 80.00

2049 4.50 80.00

2050 4.50 80.00

2051 4.50 80.00

2052 4.50 80.00

2053 4.50 80.00

Subtotal:

Remainder:

Total:

TOTAL




2013 0 0 0 0 3.70$ 101.00$

2014 0 0 0 0 3.80 92.00

2015 0 0 0 0 4.00 88.00

2016 0 0 0 0 4.10 84.00


82/158

2017 0 0 0 0 4.20 82.00

2018 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2019 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2020 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2021 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2022 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2023 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002024 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2025 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2026 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2027 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2028 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2029 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2030 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2031 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2032 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2033 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2034 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2035 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2036 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2037 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2038 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2039 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2040 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2041 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2042 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2043 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2044 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.002045 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2046 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2047 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2048 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2049 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2050 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2051 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2052 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

2053 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00

Subtotal: 0 0 0 0

Remainder: 0 0 0 0 4.50 80.00Total: 0 0 0 0


83/158

ns: Oil, Gas & NGL Pricing:

50.9% Gas % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 94.0%

0.0% Oil % Diff. vs. Price Deck: 93.0%

7,694.2 NGL as % of Oil Price: 50.0%6.4

in MMs): 7.0$

in MMs): N/A

$ in MMs): N/A

96.2%

0.0%

3.8%

ells in Model:

0.37$

Mcfe: 0.31

nses per Mcfe: 0.58

PDP


84/158

PDNP


85/158

PUD




50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.1340.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20


86/158

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.2040.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

4.23 74.40 37.20

PROB




50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.7844.00 3.76 81.84 40.92

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20


87/158

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.2040.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.2040.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

4.23 74.40 37.20

POSS


NGLs Gas Oil NGLs Gas Oil NGLs$ / Bbl $ / Mcf $ / Bbl $ / Bbl ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's)

50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20


88/158

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.2040.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.2040.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20

4.23 74.40 37.20

TOTAL




50.50$ 3.48$ 93.93$ 46.97$ -$ -$ -$

46.00 3.57 85.56 42.78 - - -

44.00 3.76 81.84 40.92 - - -

42.00 3.85 78.12 39.06 - - -


89/158

41.00 3.95 76.26 38.13 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -

- - -

40.00 4.23 74.40 37.20 - - -- - -


90/158


91/158


92/158

Operating Expenses




93/158

Operating Expenses




94/158

Operating Expenses

Total Prod. Taxes Prod. Taxes LOE LOE Other Other($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's) $ / Mcfe ($ 000's)


95/158

Operating Expenses



-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -


96/158

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - -

- - - -- - - -


97/158

PDP


98/158

PDNP


99/158

PUD

Cash Flow Discounte


($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

12/31/2013 0.08

12/31/2014 0.67

12/31/2015 1.67

12/31/2016 2.67

12/31/2017 3.6712/31/2018 4.67

12/31/2019 5.67

12/31/2020 6.67

12/31/2021 7.67

12/31/2022 8.67

12/31/2023 9.67

12/31/2024 10.67

12/31/2025 11.67


100/158

12/31/2026 12.67

12/31/2027 13.67

12/31/2028 14.67

12/31/2029 15.67

12/31/2030 16.67

12/31/2031 17.67

12/31/2032 18.6712/31/2033 19.67

12/31/2034 20.67

12/31/2035 21.67

12/31/2036 22.67

12/31/2037 23.67

12/31/2038 24.67

12/31/2039 25.67

12/31/2040 26.67

12/31/2041 27.67

12/31/2042 28.67

12/31/2043 29.67

12/31/2044 30.67

12/31/2045 31.67

12/31/2046 32.67

12/31/2047 33.67

12/31/2048 34.67

12/31/2049 35.67

12/31/2050 36.67

12/31/2051 37.67

12/31/2052 38.67

12/31/2053 39.67

12/31/2053 39.67

PROB

Cash Flow Discounte


($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

12/31/2013 0.08

12/31/2014 0.6712/31/2015 1.67

12/31/2016 2.67

12/31/2017 3.67

12/31/2018 4.67

12/31/2019 5.67

12/31/2020 6.67

12/31/2021 7.67

12/31/2022 8.67


101/158

12/31/2023 9.67

12/31/2024 10.67

12/31/2025 11.67

12/31/2026 12.67

12/31/2027 13.67

12/31/2028 14.67

12/31/2029 15.6712/31/2030 16.67

12/31/2031 17.67

12/31/2032 18.67

12/31/2033 19.67

12/31/2034 20.67

12/31/2035 21.67

12/31/2036 22.67

12/31/2037 23.67

12/31/2038 24.67

12/31/2039 25.67

12/31/2040 26.67

12/31/2041 27.67

12/31/2042 28.67

12/31/2043 29.67

12/31/2044 30.67

12/31/2045 31.67

12/31/2046 32.67

12/31/2047 33.67

12/31/2048 34.67

12/31/2049 35.67

12/31/2050 36.6712/31/2051 37.67

12/31/2052 38.67

12/31/2053 39.67

12/31/2053 39.67

POSS

Cash Flow Discounte

Total EBITDAX CapEx Cash Flow Discount($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

12/31/2013 0.08

12/31/2014 0.67

12/31/2015 1.67

12/31/2016 2.67

12/31/2017 3.67

12/31/2018 4.67

12/31/2019 5.67


102/158

12/31/2020 6.67

12/31/2021 7.67

12/31/2022 8.67

12/31/2023 9.67

12/31/2024 10.67

12/31/2025 11.67

12/31/2026 12.6712/31/2027 13.67

12/31/2028 14.67

12/31/2029 15.67

12/31/2030 16.67

12/31/2031 17.67

12/31/2032 18.67

12/31/2033 19.67

12/31/2034 20.67

12/31/2035 21.67

12/31/2036 22.67

12/31/2037 23.67

12/31/2038 24.67

12/31/2039 25.67

12/31/2040 26.67

12/31/2041 27.67

12/31/2042 28.67

12/31/2043 29.67

12/31/2044 30.67

12/31/2045 31.67

12/31/2046 32.67

12/31/2047 33.6712/31/2048 34.67

12/31/2049 35.67

12/31/2050 36.67

12/31/2051 37.67

12/31/2052 38.67

12/31/2053 39.67

12/31/2053 39.67

TOTAL

Cash Flow Discounte


($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) ($ 000's) Date Period

-$ -$ -$ -$

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -


103/158

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- - - -- - - -


104/158

Acreage and Drilling Locations

Drilling Locations and Risked Reserves

Reserve Working

Location Risking: Credit Interest

PDP 100.0% 50.9%PDNP 100.0% 50.9%

PUD 100.0% 50.9%

PROB 50.0% 50.9%

POSS 10.0% 50.9%

Total:

Drilling Schedule, by Reserve Type

Wells Drilled PU

Wells Remaining

Year (Gross) (Gross)2013 24 264.3

2014 40 240.3

2015 60 200.3

2016 75 140.3

2017 90 65.3

2018 100 -

2019 100 -

2020 100 -

2021 100 -

2022 100 -

2023 100 -2024 100 -

2025 100 -

2026 100 -

2027 100 -

2028 100 -

2029 100 -

2030 100 -

2031 100 -


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2032 100 -

2033 100 -

2034 100 -

2035 100 -

2036 100 -

2037 100 -

2038 100 -2039 100 -

2040 0 -

2041 0 -

2042 0 -

2043 0 -

2044 0 -

2045 0 -

2046 0 -

2047 0 -

2048 0 -

2049 0 -

2050 0 -

2051 0 -

2052 0 -

2053 0 -

Subtotal:

Remainder:

Total:

PUD Production Decline Curve - Lesson Outline:

1) Why?Decline rates differ in different regions - must use the

Could break it down by PA-PUD, PA-PROB, PA-POSS, but very di

2) What?Need to look at 3rd party data sources, find appropria

years we're assuming here. And then build in support for EUR-b


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3) How?Here are the set of steps to follow:

1. First, look for data on decline rates in investor presentations

Anything shale-related: very steep declines in beginning, and t

2. Make initial annual production in Year 1 some % of IP Rate *

Rationale: Even over from Month 1 to Month 12 of Year 1, the

3. Then, take the rest of this data and use goal seek to fit it to th

4. Copy and paste those all as hard-coded values now in the "De

5. Build in support for sensitivities via the "Adjustment Factor"

Rationale: If we adjust up or down the EUR, production must

Going to be very difficult to support both IP Rate and EUR Sen

Better to focus on supporting EUR here, since the correct #s a

6. Also make sure we're checking EUR against total produced so

7. Calculate "Total" column based Adj. Factor and Pre-Adjustme

8. Check #s a bit for different adjustment factors, IP rates, and s

4) What Next?With this in place, now we're going to move into

drilled for the PUD reserve type in PA and eventually apply si

Production Schedules for New Wells Drilled, by Reserve Type

PUD - Total Production (Net) (Mmcfe)

365-Day Production @ IP Rate:

Cash Flow Year 1 % Production % 365 Days @ IP Rate:

Discount DCF Gross Type Curve

Factor ($ 000's) Period Gas (Mmcf) Oil (MBbl) NGLs (MBbl)

0.99 -$ 0

0.94 - 1

0.85 - 2

0.78 - 3

0.71 - 40.64 - 5

0.58 - 6

0.53 - 7

0.48 - 8

0.44 - 9

0.40 - 10

0.36 - 11

0.33 - 12


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0.30 - 13

0.27 - 14

0.25 - 15

0.22 - 16

0.20 - 17

0.19 - 18

0.17 - 190.15 - 20

0.14 - 21

0.13 - 22

0.12 - 23

0.10 - 24

0.10 - 25

0.09 - 26

0.08 - 27

0.07 - 28

0.07 - 29

0.06 - 30

0.05 - 31

0.05 - 32

0.04 - 33

0.04 - 34

0.04 - 35

0.03 - 36

0.03 - 37

0.03 - 38

0.03 - 39

0.02 - 40-$ Subtotal:

0.02 - Remainder:

-$ Total:

PROB - Total Production (Net) (Mmcfe)

Cash Flow

Discount DCF Gross Type Curve

Factor ($ 000's) Period Gas (Mmcf) Oil (MBbl) NGLs (MBbl)

0.99 -$ 0

0.94 - 10.85 - 2

0.78 - 3

0.71 - 4

0.64 - 5

0.58 - 6

0.53 - 7

0.48 - 8

0.44 - 9


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0.40 - 10

0.36 - 11

0.33 - 12

0.30 - 13

0.27 - 14

0.25 - 15

0.22 - 160.20 - 17

0.19 - 18

0.17 - 19

0.15 - 20

0.14 - 21

0.13 - 22

0.12 - 23

0.10 - 24

0.10 - 25

0.09 - 26

0.08 - 27

0.07 - 28

0.07 - 29

0.06 - 30

0.05 - 31

0.05 - 32

0.04 - 33

0.04 - 34

0.04 - 35

0.03 - 36

0.03 - 370.03 - 38

0.03 - 39

0.02 - 40

-$ Subtotal:

0.02 - Remainder:

-$ Total:

POSS - Total Production (Net) (Mmcfe)

Cash Flow

Discount DCF Gross Type CurveFactor ($ 000's) Period Gas (Mmcf) Oil (MBbl) NGLs (MBbl)

0.99 -$ 0

0.94 - 1

0.85 - 2

0.78 - 3

0.71 - 4

0.64 - 5

0.58 - 6


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0.53 - 7

0.48 - 8

0.44 - 9

0.40 - 10

0.36 - 11

0.33 - 12

0.30 - 130.27 - 14

0.25 - 15

0.22 - 16

0.20 - 17

0.19 - 18

0.17 - 19

0.15 - 20

0.14 - 21

0.13 - 22

0.12 - 23

0.10 - 24

0.10 - 25

0.09 - 26

0.08 - 27

0.07 - 28

0.07 - 29

0.06 - 30

0.05 - 31

0.05 - 32

0.04 - 33

0.04 - 340.04 - 35

0.03 - 36

0.03 - 37

0.03 - 38

0.03 - 39

0.02 - 40

-$ Subtotal:

0.02 - Remainder:

-$ Total:

Cash Flow

Discount DCF

Factor ($ 000's)

-$

-

-

-


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-

-

-

-

-

-

--

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

--

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

--


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Potential Future Wells Unrisked Resources (Mmcfe) Risked Resources (Mmcfe)

Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net

264.3 134.5 2,033,292 1,034,909 2,033,292 1,034,909

1,779.8 905.9 13,694,269 6,970,137 6,847,135 3,485,068

1,295.9 659.6 9,971,108 5,075,115 997,111 507,511

3,340.0 1,700.0 25,698,668 13,080,161 9,877,537 5,027,489

- Locations Drilled PROB - Locations Drilled

Drilled Ending Remaining Drilled Ending

(Gross) (Gross) (Gross) (Gross) (Gross)24.0 240.3 1,779.8 - 1,779.8

40.0 200.3 1,779.8 - 1,779.8

60.0 140.3 1,779.8 - 1,779.8

75.0 65.3 1,779.8 - 1,779.8

65.3 - 1,779.8 24.7 1,755.1

- - 1,755.1 100.0 1,655.1

- - 1,655.1 100.0 1,555.1

- - 1,555.1 100.0 1,455.1

- - 1,455.1 100.0 1,355.1

- - 1,355.1 100.0 1,255.1

- - 1,255.1 100.0 1,155.1- - 1,155.1 100.0 1,055.1

- - 1,055.1 100.0 955.1

- - 955.1 100.0 855.1

- - 855.1 100.0 755.1

- - 755.1 100.0 655.1

- - 655.1 100.0 555.1

- - 555.1 100.0 455.1

- - 455.1 100.0 355.1


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- - 355.1 100.0 255.1

- - 255.1 100.0 155.1

- - 155.1 100.0 55.1

- - 55.1 55.1 -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

264.3 1,779.8

- -

264.3 1,779.8

orrect rates if we have a region-by-region build!

ficult and no data - so will just use one rate for this entire region.

te decline curve data, and then fit it to the EUR and # of production

ased sensitivities.


113/158

nd even other companies' investor presentations.

hen it should flatten out over time.

65 - base it on decline rate data, as we do here.

re will be big declines. So annual total won't be close to IP Rate * 365.

e EUR we're assuming and the # of productive years (~40).

cline Rate" column.

e're linking to here.

lso change!

sitivities at the same time, so must pick one.

e a much bigger open question.

far so add a MIN function as well.

nt Total, and then divide into Oil vs. Gas vs. NGLs.

o on.

how to aggregate production across all wells

ilar logic to PROB and POSS.

Adj. Factor: 0.0%

EUR: 7,694

Total Decline Pre-Adjust. Net Type Curve

(Mmcfe) Rate: Total: Gas (Mmcf) Oil (MBbl) NGLs (MBbl)


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Net

Total Net Type Curve(Mmcfe) Gas (Mmcf) Oil (MBbl) NGLs (MBbl)


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117/158


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POSS - Locations Drilled

Remaining Drilled Ending

(Gross) (Gross) (Gross)1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.91,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9


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1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 - 1,295.9

1,295.9 44.9 1,251.0

1,251.0 100.0 1,151.0

1,151.0 100.0 1,051.0

1,051.0 100.0 951.0951.0 100.0 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

851.0 - 851.0

444.9

851.0

1,295.9


120/158

Net Wells Drilled:

Total

(Mmcfe) 0 1 2 3 4 5


121/158

ells Drilled:

Total

(Mmcfe) 0 1 2 3 4 5


122/158

ells Drilled:

Total(Mmcfe) 0 1 2 3 4 5


123/158


124/158


125/158


126/158


127/158

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13


128/158

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13


129/158

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13


130/158


131/158


132/158


133/158


134/158

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


135/158

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


136/158

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


137/158


138/158


139/158


140/158


141/158

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29


142/158

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29


143/158

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29


144/158


145/158


146/158


147/158


148/158

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37


149/158

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37


150/158

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37


151/158


152/158


153/158


154/158


155/158

38 39 40 Subtotal Remainder Total


156/158



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Documents

77 04 PUD Production Decline Curve Before