Frost Sullivan Asean Automotive Markets Potential_The Final Frontier_November2011

ASEAN ASEAN –– The Final FrontierThe Final Frontier

Vivek Vaidya, Vice President

Automotive & Transportation APAC

November 17, 2011 November 17, 2011

Heads Global Urban Mobility tracking Program and Automotive practice in Asia - Pacific

Working Experience: 16 Years in Automotive Industry, Brand Consulting and Growth Consulting

Specializes in: Future of Urban Mobility, Smart Transportation systems, Market entry strategy, Price-volume projections and Marketing Strategy

Markets Covered: Japan, Korea, ASEAN and India

Today’s Presenter: Vivek Vaidya

2

Over 50 TV appearances in last 3 years

Keynote Speaker in global conferences across the globe

Master in Management and Bachelor in Mechanical Engineering

Blog: http://vivekvaidya.com Twitter: @mrvivekvaidya

Vivek VaidyaVice President

Contents

ASEAN: The Final Frontier

Trends in Thailand

Trends in Indonesia

Trends in Malaysia

Frost & Sullivan’s presence in ASEAN

ASEAN: GDP Growth >5%; Car Parc : < 50 per 1000

ASEAN - 10 Member countries:

Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,

Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos,

Cambodia, Brunei, Myanmar.

Population 526 million

Real GDP growth Rate

5.7%

Car Population 26 million

No of cars per ‘000 Less than 50

Compelling opportunity, difficult to overlook

Brunei

Malayasia

150

200

250

300

350

400

Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines are in Rapid Growth Zone, Malaysia Approaching Maturity

C4 C3 C2 C1

Position of ASEAN Countries on Growth CurvePosition of ASEAN Countries on Growth Curve

Rapid Growth

Growth

Penetration of Motor Vehicles

5

Singapore

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

0

50

100

150

$50,000$10,000$7,000$3,000

Cluster 1: nearing

stagnation

Brunei, Singapore

Cluster 2: Steady

growth

Malaysia

Cluster 3: High Growth

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Cluster 4: Markets of

tomorrow

Vietnam

Laos, Cambodia

Myanmar

Per capita GDP (PPP Basis)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

GD

P (

US

$ B

illio

n)

GDP - POPULATION CHART2010 - 2015

Indonesia and Vietnam Slated to be the Fastest Growing Countries in ASEAN; Important Countries for Automotive Markets

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

6

-

200

400

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

GD

P (

US

$ B

illio

n)

POPULATION (million)

2010 2015

• All countries, except Philippines, are likely to grow at a CAGR of 7-9% in next 5 years.

• Growth in population is averagely staying between 1-2%

• Indonesia and Vietnam are predicted to be the fastest growing countries in next 5 years

with increase GDP per capita are likely to 9% and above.

Size of bubble indicates per capita GDP

Philippines

Source: IMF, Analysis: Frost & Sullivan


7


Individually none of the ASEAN Countries Figure in Top 10 Globally, but as a Region ASEAN is likely to become 8th Largest Automotive Market by 2018

Country Sales 2010

1 China 17,212,891

2 USA 11,562,701

3 Japan 4,891,452

4 Brazil 3,363,445

5 Germany 3,109,641

6 India 2,712,587

Sales 2015

1 China 29,010,852

2 USA 16,466,283

3 India 5,788,462

4 Brazil 5,364,935

5 Japan 4,591,476

6 Germany 3,850,511

Sales 2018

1 China 33,391,276

2 USA 16,970,585

3 India 9,039,806

4 Brazil 6,287,188

5 Japan 4,517,218

6 Russia 4,025,975

8

6 India 2,712,587

7 France 2,669,402

8 UK 2,260,881

9 ASEAN 2,226,965

10 Italy 2,128,492

6 Germany 3,850,511

7 Russia 3,429,031

8 ASEAN 3,140,684

9 France 2,704,451

10 Italy 2,563,360

6 Russia 4,025,975

7 Germany 3,968,411

8 ASEAN 3,634,697

9 UK 2,897,909

10 Italy 2,793,822


What is Different about ASEAN now?

• Next milestone of AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Agreement) implemented in 2010 : No taxes on CKD / SKD

•Healthy rivalry among various countries to attract investments

•Growth hungry Indian and Chinese companies vying for this market

•ASEAN is a competitive production base, net exporter with strong competencies in certain product ranges

ASEAN was always a cluster, what is so different now?

9

competencies in certain product ranges

2010

No duties on CKD / SKD

2015

Uniform vehicle type approval

2020

Barrier free trade area, free movement capital & goods

ASEAN is a Growth Market for Passenger Cars, Pick-up Trucks is a Declining Market in the Region

2.22 mn

3.63 mn

19%

10%

8%

22%

14%

11%

9%

619,972 30,818

58,451

393,595

39,044

254,09575,109

244,192

42,112

33,783

13,602

15,257

10,317

Vision of ASEAN Automotive Industry : Light Vehicle Sales, (ASEAN),(2010 – 2018)

ASEAN 2018CAGR 7.25%


10

40%

21%

43%

330,080

634,953507,451

76,226

619,972 30,818

108,67539,044

Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines

Passenger Car MPV Pick-up Truck SUV LCV Luxury

Indonesia - MPVThailand – Passenger Car growth at cost of

Pick-up

Malaysia – Passenger car, MPV are growth

markets

2010 2018

Passenger Car Market Dominated by Japanese Players except Malaysia where National makes Rule

Market Leader

Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Comments

Thailand

40%40% 19%19% 14%14% 7%7% 5%5%

Japanese control more than

95% of the market

11

40%40% 19%19% 14%14% 7%7% 5%5%

Malaysia

35%35% 29%29% 13%13% 8%8% 4%4%

National makes control

majority of the market share

Indonesia

37%37% 16%16% 14%14% 9%9% 8%8%

Japanese control more than

95% market share

Passenger Car, MPV and SUV are the Growth Segments, Pick-up would have Moderate Growth

5.0%

10.0%

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Th

ou

san

ds

Growth Segments in ASEAN 2010-2018


12

Passenger cars segment is significant: highest volume, highest growth rate

MPV, SUV markets to grow in Indonesia and Malaysia

Pickup markets in Thailand likely to decline due to changing customer trends

0.0%0

Car MPV Pickup Truck SUV LCV Luxury Car

2010 2018 CAGR

Sub-compact and Compact Cars are Most Important Segments

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

500

1,000

1,500

Th

ou

san

ds

Passenger Car Segment Growth in ASEAN 2010-2018

13

Highest volume growth rate would occur in Sub-compact segment, no further scope for engine downsizing

Compact cars are the second largest segment albeit at a lower growth rates

Premium cars slated to grow at an exponential rate but the volumes are very low

0.0%-

Sub-Compact

Car

Compact Car Mini Car Midsize Car Premium Sporty Entry Sporty Fullsize Car Medium Sporty

2010 2018 CAGR

Case Study of Japanese Automakers: Toyota

Supply chain across ASEAN, focus on competency and scale at each location

Thailand Philippines

• Diesel engine

• Steering column• Transmission

Strategy

• Japanese companies have established bases in ASEAN since 1960s initially as domestic production

base

• Financial crisis in 1998 encouraged use of ASEAN as export base

• Implementation of AFTA made it a sustainable strategy and key to competitive differentiation

14

Use ASEAN as export hub, maintain product focus at CBU level

Each production unit should be single supplier across the region

Malaysia Indonesia

• Steering column

• Body panels

• Petrol engine

• Door frame & lock

• Small motors

• Engine computers

• Wiper arms

• Electronics

• Transmission

• Universal joints


Case Study of Japanese Automakers: Honda

Supply chain across ASEAN, focus on competency and scale at each location

• Japanese companies have established bases in ASEAN since 1960s initially as domestic production

base

• Financial crisis in 1998 encouraged use of ASEAN as export base

• Implementation of AFTA made it a sustainable strategy and key to competitive differentiation

Thailand Philippines

• Press

components

• Manual

transmission

Strategy

15

Use ASEAN as export hub, maintain product focus at CBU level

Each production unit should be single supplier across the region

Malaysia Indonesia

components

• Lights

• Cylinder block &

head

• Suspension

• Bumper

• Dashboard

• Universal joint

transmission

• Exhaust system


Summary of Regulatory Analysis

Market Size Auto PolicyPolicy Implementation

Tax concessions

Growth

Thailand Large Liberal Transparent

1 T pick-up

Energy saving cars

Encouraged actively

16

Malaysia LargeRestrictive in past,

getting ready to

open markets

Ad-hoc National makesRestrictive, may

change

Indonesia Large

Aimed at

attracting

investments in

strategic areas

TransparentIndonesian

contentEncouraged


Contents


Trends in Thailand

17

Trends in Indonesia

Trends in Malaysia


Floods have Crippled Thai Automotive Industry due to Production Stoppage of more than a Month

18

Ayutthaya & Pathumthani

OEM: Honda

Number of Suppliers : 40

Major Suppliers : Federal Mogul,

Hi-Tech Rubber Parts, Showa

Aluminium etc

Components: Body Parts, Engine

Parts, Suspension and Brake parts

etc

Mitsubishi

Auto Alliance Thailand, GM

Toyota, Isuzu

Toyota, Nissan

Production Stoppages would Result in Production Loss of Over 100,000 Units in Thailand and Similar Numbers Across the Globe

19

Honda Plant Toyota Plant Mitsubishi Plant

Eco Car Plans are Targeted at Export, only a Smaller Portion of Production Targeted at Domestic Markets

ManufacturerProduction

targetBreakdown of production

Prod

starts Remarks

Honda 120,000• 50% Thailand

• 50% Asean, Asia & EU2011

1.3L sedan, global WOW concept car,

2/3 models on same platform

Ford Mazda

(AAT)100,000 Domestic and ASEAN 2011-12 Ford Verve concept/Fiesta and Mazda 2

Mitsubishi 107,000

• 12% Thailand

• 88% export (Australia, Asia 2011-121.3L sedan Concept CX Asian version,

20

Mitsubishi

Motors 107,000 • 88% export (Australia, Asia

& Japan)

2011-121.3L sedan Concept CX Asian version,

more than 1 model on same platform

Suzuki Motors 138,000• 19% Thailand

• 81% - Asia, Australia, Africa2012

With GM, Maruti Suzuki global, Wagon

R, Suzuki Cervo

Siam Nissan

Motors 120,000

• 10 to 20% Thailand

• 80-90% Asia, Asean &

Australia

Launch

ed

Nissan March launched, exported to

Indonesia as well as Japan

Toyota Motor

Thailand 100,000

• 50% - Thailand 50% -

Asean Oceania 2012

1.1L to 1.3L sedan, rebadged Myvi, 2nd

gen Boon Passo, new global A car

Tata Motors and VW had initially shown interest but subsequently withdrew the application

In Thailand, Passenger Car would see Highest Growth, Pick-up would see the Lowest Growth

Passenger Vehicles Market: Total Automotive Market Sales (Thailand), 2009 and 2010

557,918 634,953

347,320

362,079393,595

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Thailand Market 2010-2018 CAGR

Passenger Car 10%

MPV/Minivan 9%

Pickup Truck 2%

SUV 4%

21

324,838557,918 634,953

0

200,000

Sales 2010 Sales 2015 Sales 2018

Passenger Car MPV/Minivan Pickup Truck SUV LCV Luxury Car

LCV 7%

Luxury Car 10%

Passenger cars segment is significant: highest volume, highest growth rate

Customers moving away from Pick-up and SUVs to more fuel efficient options

Growth in Passenger car also coincides with Governments push for Eco cars


Significant Market Trends: Pick-up Trucks giving way to B-segment Cars

• Eco car another government sponsored program has gathered momentum

• Initial model launch from Nissan is very successful

• More launches to follow

Eco car effect

Petrol and Diesel Price differential

129,943

66,952

311,688

347,328

362,077

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

• About 3 years ago, Diesel price was about 20% lower than petrol price

• Gradually the difference between them has vanished

• Pick-up trucks have lost their edge over petrol driven cars

• Earlier, many pick-ups were used as passenger cars due to availability and economy and brand image

• This trend has now shifted towards cars

Use of Pick-up as passenger car on decline

114,199207,323

372,43774,328

88,262

129,943

35,749

56,319

311,688

0

200,000

400,000

2008 2010 2015

Mini Car Sub-Compact Car Compact Car

Midsize Car Fullsize Car Luxury Car

Sporty Car SUV MPV

Pickup Truck LCV


Contents


Trends in Thailand

Trends in Indonesia

Trends in Malaysia


Indonesia Automotive Industry Master PlanGovernment’s current Focus is to Develop Production Base for Eco-friendly Vehicles

Indonesia Automotive Master Plan Details towards 2025

Details of The Master Plan

Vehicle Production

• MPV• Light commercial

truck• Fuel-efficient &

eco-friendly car

• Fuel-efficient & eco-friendly MPV, SUV and small sedan

• Commercial truck <24 tons

• Eco-friendly MPV, SUV and small sedan

• Commercial truck >24 tons

• Medium Sedan & Hybrid car

• Low cost MPV, SUV & small sedan

• Commercial truck >24 tons

• Medium sedan• Hybrid & Luxury car

2011 2015 20252020

24

Technology Acquired

Component Production

• Machine & transmission for MPV & Light Commercial Truck

• Fully supply components for production of MPV & Light Commercial Truck

• 80% design of MPV & Light commercial truck

• Machine & transmission for Commercial truck, eco-friendly SUV & small sedan

• Fully supply components for production of Commercial Truck <24 ton, SUV & small sedan

• 80% design of small sedan & SUV

• Hybrid engine• ECU integration

system

• Fully supply components for production of Commercial Truck >24 tons, medium sedan, hybrid car

• 80% design of medium sedan

• Luxury car components manufacturing

• Components supply for production of Luxury car

Source: Ministry of Industry

Indonesia is truly a Growth Market as all Segments are likely to Register Double Digit Volume Growth

Passenger Vehicles Market: Total Automotive Market Sales (Indonesia)

CAGR

Passenger Car 18%

MPV/Minivan 10%

Pickup Truck 14%

SUV 15%261,177 330,080

326,954

503,718619,972

95,283

192,259

254,095

123,383

196,738

244,192

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Indonesia Market 2010-2018

25

LCV 10%

Luxury Car 16%

MPV segment is significant: highest volume, high growth rate

Despite high motorcycle volumes, entry level cars unlikely to become a large segment due to unique taxation policies

SUVs are typically purchased by customers from higher income, which also is a growing segment

105,894261,177 330,080

0

200,000




Significant Market Trends: High Motorcycle Market with Big Gap at Low End Cars

Mobility Diagram

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00T

housands

Vo

lum

e

Bike

range

Used

Car

range

New

Car

range

2W

26

• Significant opportunity exists between current B-segment cars and motorcycles

• Lack of public transport further accentuates the opportunity

• There is a need for a low priced car / MPV which can bridge the gap effectively

-

1,000.00

(20) - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Price Rp (mn)

rangerange

Size of bubble represents volume in 2007

A/B segment

Price represents the mean price of the range


Opportunities: Indonesia Possible Entry Point to ASEAN

Market Size

Auto PolicyInfluence of Japanese on Policy Making

Policy Implementation

Tax concessions

Growth

Thailand Large Liberal High Transparent

1 T pick-up

Energy saving cars

Encouraged actively

Indonesia LargeLiberalization

in stepsLow-Medium Transparent

MPV,

Indonesian

content

Encouraged

27

• Considering macro-economic realities and differentiation from Thailand, Indonesia is

focusing on low cost car, which is not main focus area of Japanese players

• Hence, this provides an opportunity for Indian, Chinese and Korean players

• Auto Component sector in Indonesia is not as well developed, hence government is

actively looking for a partner for development

• The domestic market is large enough which adds to the attractiveness of the market

• It is therefore being considered as the possible entry point by majority of the vehicle

manufacturers and auto component manufacturers

Contents


Trends in Thailand

28

Trends in Indonesia

Trends in Malaysia


In Malaysia, most Segment would Grow at Moderate Single Digit Growth Rates

Passenger Vehicles Market: Total Automotive Market Sales (Malaysia)

CAGR

Passenger Car 3%

MPV/Minivan 1%

Pickup Truck 0%

SUV 4%

LCV 6%

407,714470,731 507,451

104,510108,180

108,67523,13030,353

33,783

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Malaysia Market 2010-2018

29

LCV 6%

Luxury Car 2%

Passenger car is still highest volume segment with moderate growth rate

MPV which had seen exponential growth from 2008 is likely to stagnate

0




Market Liberalization Attracted more Industry Players; Increasing Local Assembly Activities to Sustain Competitiveness

• Manufacturing license

granted to Berjaya

Corp assemble CV, EV

and luxury PV

• 100-acre plant at

Bukit Tagar, Selangor

to be built

• Berjaya Corp had

earlier signed MOU

with BYD, to study the

• Changan

Berjaya, another JV

between Changan

Auto and Berjaya

Corp made inroads to

Malaysian market

• Plan to make

Malaysia production

hub for SEA with third

party assembler in

• Berjaya Brilliance

Auto, a JV Between

Berjaya Group and

Shenyang Brilliance

Jinbei has the

exclusive right to

assemble and

distribute CV under

the name ERA Jinbei

• Era Jinbei semi-panel

• VW started with the

range of CBU vehicles

in 2006.

• Sales growth was

promising but volume

remained small due

to high prices

• VW has been trying to

establish local

presence by having

• Since taking over the

distributorship in

2008, Bermaz Auto

(subsidiary under

Berjaya Group) has

been promoting

Mazda brand by

bringing in new

models

• Mazda 2 and Mazda 3

30

• More automakers making inroads to the Malaysian market by setting up local production base, and as a

gesture to support the NAP

with BYD, to study the

feasibility to assemble

F0 model.

• It is anticipated that

the E6 and F3DM

might be part of the

assembly plans

• Malaysia could be the

RHD production hub

for BYD

party assembler in

Johor

• CV6 minivan and CM8

MPV launched in

2009 (CBU so far)

adopting low price

strategy

• Era Jinbei semi-panel

van officially launched

in 2010

• Localization is

expected to start by

H1 2011

presence by having

local assembly.

Discussion partners

included Proton, then

DRB-HICOM

• The deal materialized

with DRB-HICOM in

Dec 10 and the

assembly of VW cars

will start in Q4 11

with Jetta and Passat

• Mazda 2 and Mazda 3

– successfully

launched and well-

received

• Localization of Mazda

3 to start at

INOKOM’s assemble

plant in Kedah to

improve price

competitiveness

Hybrid Vehicle Market in Malaysia set to row because of the Tax Exemption from Government

• Excise duty exemptions on hybrid cars below

2,000cc till the end of 2011 to be the principal

factor for the phenomenal hybrid growth in

Malaysia.

• If the incentive were to continue, this will

attract more introduction of hybrid models

and further drive the growth for the segment

• National make Proton has plan to roll out the

Toyota Prius -

Aug 09

(RM175k*)

Hybrid Vehicle Sales in Malaysia (2008-2010)

New Hybrid

vehicle launch

Lexus

600hL, RX450hLexus CT200h–

Feb 2011

31

• National make Proton has plan to roll out the

Exora hybrid by 2012

• 4 new model was launched since Nov 2010 –

Honda Insight being the most affordable

Hybrid in the market

• In 2010, Prius’s sales has surpassed Honda

Civic Hybrid; However, the below RM100k

Honda Insight with 5 years warranty is

expected to regain Honda’s leader position in

this segment in 2011

Source: Frost & Sullivan. Note: All figures are rounded.

(RM175k*)*Initial launch price

before tax exemption

vehicle launch600hL, RX450h

Nov 2010

Honda Insight

Dec 2010

Feb 2011

Model Engine

capacity

Max Output Price (RM)

Honda Civic Hybrid 1.3L 115PS 108,980

Toyota Prius 1.8L 98PS/5200rpm 139,900

Honda Insight 1.3L 88PS 98,000

Lexus CT200h 1.8L 98bhp/5200rpm 196,500

Lexus RX450h 3.5L 245bhp/6000rpm 533,756

Lexus 600hL 5.0L 389bhp/6400rpm 1,002,182

Contents


Trends in Thailand

32

Trends in Indonesia

Trends in Malaysia


Frost & Sullivan has Strong Local Presence in ASEAN

Dushyant Sinha• Malaysia

• Principal

Consultant

• Tata

Vivek Vaidya• Singapore

LegendNameLocation

Designation

Past Employer

8 offices in APAC, 4 offices in ASEAN, Team size 15

Ekman Zashua• Malaysia

• Consulting

Analyst

• ProtonWaran• Malaysia

• Principal

Consultant

Ira Sustrini• Indonesia

• Research Mgr

• Clarity Res

• Singapore

• Vice President

• Toyota, Bajaj

Masaki Honda• Singapore

• Principal

Consultant

• Isuzu, Bridgest

one

• Qualified team with experience of working with automakers and component companies

• Grooming local talent for local language, relationships & culture

Consultant

• Daimler, Synovate

ASEAN Research Titles

Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Malaysia Jun 11

CEO 360 Degree Perspective of the Automotive Industry in ASEAN – Opportunities for OEMs and Suppliers in ASEAN

Strategic Growth Opportunities from AFTA implementation and New government policies in ASEAN

Strategic Growth Opportunities in Alternate fuels and powertrains in ASEAN

Strategic Growth Opportunities in Automotive Connectivity in ASEAN

Strategic Growth Opportunities in Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market in ASEAN

Tentative 2012 Research Titles

ASEAN Research Titles Already Published on Frost.com


Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Thailand May 11

Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Indonesia May 11

Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Vietnam Apr 11

Strategic Analysis of ASEAN Market for Navigation Systems Aug 10


Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Indonesia Jun 10

Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Thailand Jun 10

Strategic Analysis of Passenger Vehicles Market in Vietnam Jun 10

Types of assignments handled

Government

departments/

associations

Passenger Car

Pick-up,LCV, SUV

Auto Component OE

Auto Component After market

Tires / batteries

Navigation,

telematics and

infotainment

GreenCar / Evs/

Hybrids

Off-roadtrucks,

construction

equipments

Two wheelers/ Electric

two wheelers

Policy /

strategy

formulation /

implementatio

n support

√√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√

Market entry

Strategy √√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√

Product

testing /

product clinic√√ √√

√√

Channel /

Distribution

strategy√√ √√ √√ √√ √√ √√

Customer

Satisfaction √√ √√ √√ √√

Branding

strategy/

brand tracking√√ √√

Strategic

partnership /

Customer

identification

√√ √√ √√ √√

Partial List of our Clients

Vehicle Manufacturers

Auto Component Manufacturers

Tires, Batteries, Navigation

Government, Association


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Automotive & Transportation

+49 (0) 69 [email protected]

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Vice President - APAC


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Frost Sullivan Asean Automotive Markets Potential_The Final Frontier_November2011