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Frost & Sullivan Workshop: Global Mobility and Megacities Presentatio n at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting April 19, 2011

Frost Sullivan Global Ev Reported

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Page 1: Frost Sullivan Global Ev Reported

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Frost & Sullivan Workshop:Global Mobility and Megacities

Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting

April 19, 2011

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2

Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011

• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and

Technology Planning 40 min

• Video BMW short films: 15 min

• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min

• Working session and brainstorm : Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze newopportunities and business models 20 min

• Team Presentations 30 min

• Summary 05 min

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Table of Contents

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of

Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

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Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

Urbanization Infrastructure Geo-socialization

New Business Models Power to the Middle Classand Gen Y

E-Mobility

Digital World (high speedbroadband, Wireless, etc) Health, Wellness and Well-being High Speed Rail

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Table of Contents

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

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Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regionsand Mega Corridors

MEGA CITYCity With A Minimum

Population Of 10 Million

EXAMPLE: Greater London

MEGA REGIONSCities Combining With Suburbs To

Form Regions. (Population over

10 Million)

EXAMPLE: Johannesburg andPretoria (forming

“Jo -Toria”)

MEGA CORRIDORSThe Corridors Connecting TwoMajor Cities or Mega Regions

EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population

120 Million)

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1950s Urbanisation

2000s Suburbanisation

2015s Network City

2020s : Branded Cities

• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centresbecoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for“double income, no kids” households.

cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.• Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while

manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and thirdbelt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.

• „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and mallsmostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).

cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport andworking areas in third and second belt.

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

Creation of the historic centre and districts

Third suburban area and cities along the highwayscreated, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

Living areasexpanding welloutside of the

peninsular loop inSan Francisco

Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts

„S”Governance

„S‟ City

Planning

„S‟Energy

„S‟ Business

„S‟ ICT

„S‟ Mobility

„S‟ Citizen

„S‟ Buildings

These 3 elements Will define the „Smart‟Mobility of the future

Smart Diamond to define Smart city

City‟s InfrastructureLegend: City‟s User community City‟s Green Ecology

„S‟ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure

„S„ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, CongestionCharging

„S‟ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, InternetTechnologies

Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility

S o u r c e :

F r o s

t &

S u

l l i v a n

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*****

P +R

SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafsfrom Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City

SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE

SMART PUBLIC SPACE

• 39% commute by bicycle• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle

route• To familiarize electric bicycle

taxis

• 200 charging stations by 2012;• 10,000 EVs By 2015• Encourage car sharing

• Cheaper parking slots atpublic transit stations topark cars and board trains

• Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrowshopping street downtown is to featureenergy efficient street lighting,

• Sustainable tram stops with solarpowered displays and billboards

• Solar powered garbage bins with builtin compacters will be installed on thisstreet

• 1200 homes to feature smart metersand energy management systems.

• 14% reduction in energy use isexpected of this smart meter project

• ITO tower is testing the use of smartmeters and energy efficient appliances to

cut energy consumption.• Design aesthetics of building absorb

natural light and air from the environmentthereby keep artificial lighting and HVACuse to minimum.

SMART COMMUTE to WORK

• 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reducehome to work car miles by 10% by 2012.

• Incentive/free bicycles to employees• Free & protected bike parks at offices to

encourage cycle use.• Work from home if necessary

x • Yearly reduction of parkingspaces and increase of tariffsinside the city.

• 30 kmph speed limits on 80%of roads inside the city -makes bicycles faster by atleast 50% on a A-B trip.

• 154 shore power connectionsto charge inland cargo vesselsand river cruisers to beinstalled by 2012

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“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead toConvergence of Competition

IT PlayersAutomation/Building

Control Players

Energy/InfrastructurePlayers

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

• IP Networks• Digital Technology• Analysis Software• Wireless Communication•

Technology Integration• Network Security• Etc.

T&D Technology• Power Electronics• Renewable Energy• Integrated Distribution Management• Substation Automation• AMI-Enabled Metering• Etc.

• Building Automation• Demand-Side Management• Connectivity of devices• Monitoring and Sensing•

Smart Grid Integration• Etc.

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Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class

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0.1 0.1 0.1

0.4 0.30.20.1

0.2 0.3

0.4 0.4

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.20.2

0.3

0.5 0.6

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

North America Latin America,Caribbean and

Oceania

Europe Africa India China Rest of Asia

1.8

2.2

2.3

0.5

1.7

2.6

2.1

1.2

2010 2020

6.83 Billion

7.55 Billion

World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global),

2020

P o p u

l a t i o

n (

b i l l i o

n )

1.

.6

.1

1.

0-14 Years 15-34 Years 35-64 Years 65 Years and Above

Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Depar tment of Economic and Social Affairs of the Uni ted Nations

Around 37% of this AgeGroup Will Live in Indiaand China Alone

World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15to 34 – Important Customer of the Future for City Cars

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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest andLifestyle

Personalisation and

Individualisation

Techno Savvy andConnected 24 X 7

Civic andEnvironmentally

Friendly

Demanding andImpatient – “Fastand the Furious”

Personalised Search andNews

Social Networking Profiles

Personalised Products

Gaming Gizmos

Smart Phones

Facebook-on-the Move

Microblogs

Eco- Transport

Bag-For-Life (Paper BagsInstead of Plastic)

Paperless Banking

Instant Text Messaging

Instant Chat

Speed Oriented Gaming(Car Racing)

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Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone

700 Million

15 Million

The middle class in China isdefined as households withan annual income between

$8,000 and $70,000

The middle class in India isdefined as households withan annual income between

$5,000 and $220,000

The middle class in Brazil isdefined as households withan annual income between

$586 and $2,530

120 Million

140 Million

The middle class in Russiais defined as householdswith an annual income

between $6000 and$30,000

400 Million

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Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emergingeconomies will have a major impact on car mobility

Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo

Bus RapidTransit Lanes 2011 2011

Metro/Subway 2011

CongestionCharging Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future

Parking Cuts

Road useCharging/Ban Yes 1 Week

Day Ban1 weekDay Ban

1 WeekDay Ban* Future

EV/HybridIncentives

Bicycle Lanes

EmissionStandard Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4

Euro 3Euro 4 by

2012Euro 4

CAFÉ27.5mpg.34.1 mpgby 2016

Euro 4Euro 5 by

2011

25%reductionby 2015

Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend

Population(Million)

Per capita 2025(USD)

Cars per 1000 -2009

Cars per 1000 –

2025

Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340

New York 25.9 67,591 230 220

London 14.4 57,746 400 340

Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270

Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122

São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335

Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350

Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72

Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155

Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250

Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475

Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173

Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320

Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025

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Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

Agenda

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

Key Trends in Urbanization

New Urban Mobility Business Models

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High Speed Rail to Come to USOverview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states.

Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)

California to connect BayArea with LA through anambitious $42bn programwith construction startingin 2 years

Impact to PersonalMobility and Auto

Industry

1. Air travel will diminishrapidly between thehigh speed rail linkcities

2. Train operators couldstart offeringintegrated transporte.g. Car sharing

3. Will take congestion off highways, people willdrive less long distance

4. Attractive cities for carsharing

5. Small city car sales willgrow in these cities

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Car Sharing in North America4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Membersare in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs

Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025

2016 Potential

More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues

More than 4.4 million members

More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharingSource: Frost & Sullivan

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Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter -modality and multi-modality travel split

The Concept of a DynamicTransport SolutionIntegrating Different ModesUnder a Single Entity tomake PersonalTransportation Easy andSimple

MIs will start exploiting theWeb 2.0 and Mobile 2.0Internet service to offermobility-basedapplications (apps) on smartphones.

Source: Frost & Sullivan*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose

MobilityIntegrator

TransportOperators

Rail Bus

Car sharing

Bikes

TechnologySolutions Provider

WEB2.0

MOBILE2.0

Technology Evolution

TelecomOperators

Online MobilityBooking

Agencies:Long Distance Mobility

Short Distance Urban Mobility

PaymentEngine

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Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM)Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof

Evolution of Megacities: Case Study – Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009

byPeugeotWeekendServices

TravelServices

DrivingBehaviorand Rewards

PersonalTransportSolutions

VehicleAccessories

Service Units

HiringUnits

Create an account to usethis scheme

Pay subscription chargesto get charging units

Working Concept

Hire services or productsbased on balance incharging units

Earn mobility (reward)points that can be used forselect services

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Partnering with travel agencies,driving schools amongst others.Booking services on train,airplane travel and hotels.Discounts, prizes and memberadvantages.

Decrease spendingby using the sameinfrastructure andstaff

Generateincome from thestock of vehiclessitting atdealerships

Micro-mobility solutions suchas bicycles and scooters.Rental cars and vans.Vehicle acces sories such asroof-boxes, cycle racks andchild seats.

Brest

Rennes

NantesLyon

Paris

Expected to be expanded in key EU citiesin 2010-2011

Bristol

London

Current Points of Sale

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New Urban Mobility Business Models

Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

Agenda

Discussions

Key Trends in Urbanization

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

I F Th Will b Shif f Ci i D i d d

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In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed aroundCars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities :OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms

• Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.

• Electro-mobility – Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity )

• Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.

• Lighter drive – Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis.

• Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India)• Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm• Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future.• Turning radius: 4m.• Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)

• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city Multiple Variants – Pixo, Note and Cube• Compact Vehicle length and width : less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm• Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future• Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city

traffic• Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting

Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025

Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment

Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment

Reference Model

Gordon Murray

T.27

TATA Motors

Nano EV

Mitsubishi

i-MiEV

Length (mm) 2,500 3,090 3,475

Width (mm) 1,300 1,487 1,475

Height (mm) 1,600 1,585 1,610

Power Capacity (kW) 15-40 47

Seating Capacity (nos.) 1-4 4

Maximum Speed (kmph) 75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110) ~130

Maximum Driving Range (km) 100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130) ~160

Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs

Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025

Ergonomically designedcomfortable seats for

long commuting hours

Turning radius <4.3m todrive in congested streets

Start Stop System forfrequent stop in traffic

Facebook on wheels,Internet in cars

3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2Vand V2X communication

Limited boot spaceand more head and

leg room

CO2 less than 80gm/km vehicles

Lightweightconstruction

Panoramic roofs

Navigation systems withroute guidance and traffic

information

Customised andpersonalised comfortfunctions

Smart vehicleaccess

Low speed collisionavoidance for enhancedsafety and pedestrian

protectionSimple and easy to use

HMI

Vehicle length of

less than 3500mm

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous parkingassist

Voice recognitiontechnology

E M bili

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E-MobilityOver 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around theGlobe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities

Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025

XM 3000 Electric Moped Sanyo Enable

The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton

Total 30 million –

2 Wheelers (2020)Total 10 Million –

4 Wheelers (2020)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

C t d M bilit

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Connected MobilitySmart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car withCloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future

Internet Radio

EV Infrastructure

Infotainment and Mobile Phone

Cloud Computing

Smarter Home

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Future IT Mobility Solutions for “Integrated” and “Interoperable”Transport Infrastructure:

Car Sharing : technology tolocate, reserve and unlock

nearest car on mobile,provide info via apps/GPS

Source: ETSI

CongestionCharging: technologymigration from ANPR –Tag& Beacon – GPS,

and advanced paymentand info on mobile

Connectivity : opportunity for built,bought & beamed in, providing a

hybrid open architecture service andnetwork comms

Commercial VehicleTelematics : Vehicle/driver

management, and on boardtracking, computer, navigation

V2V: ANPR, DSRC,vehicle positioning

EVs IT :grid/energy

management,billing systems,comms & cloud

RTI : Ticketing,scheduling, CCTV

and incidentmanagement,UTMC integration

SmartTicketing/AFC :

Innovative payment,integration with RTI

LMS: Signalling,infotainment,

diagnostics, energymanagement &GPS

Source: ETSI

M Cit A St

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Mega-City App StoreFrom Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value AddedDevelopment

Mobility Entertainment Vehicle Access/Security Telematics Electric Vehicles Navigation

Car Sharing –Choosing,

Reservationand locating

cars,

Car/VanPooling – car

and van poolingapps,

MultimodalTransport –apps for real

timebus/transit

Car SharingVehicle Access

Internet Radioe.g. Pandora,

RadioTime

IP TV – live tvusing internet,

eg. .SPB TV,

SocialNetworking –

e.g. Twitter,Facebook,

News – Onlineradio news,RSS feeds

reader

Vehicle Locator

Vehicle Access– convertingphone in tosmart key

Remote CarStarter/Security

Remote VehicleHorn/Light

Flash – SecurityApp,

EmergencyAssistance –

App

Real TimeVideo Traffic

Feeds

Diagnostics –TPMS,

service/oilnotifications,

IntegratedTelematics –

eCall/bCall/Tolling

State of ChargeMonitoring App

ChargingStation Locator

Interior Pre-Condition App

EV Billing

Turn by TurnNavigation

Dynamic POIFinder

Real timeTraffic

Information

3D Navigationwith VideoSupport

Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025

S o u r c e :

F r o s

t &

S u

l l i v a n

F f U b M bili C l i d

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Future of Urban Mobility – Conclusions andRecommendations

Mega City vehicles will have new

“Urban”technologies

OEMs to developnew Mega Cityvehicles

Impact onPersonal Mobility

New integratedurban mobility

models willemerge including

car sharing

Over 30 Mega-cities, 110

Smart/SustainableCities and Mega

Corridors

More than 60%of the populationwill live in cities

by 2025Multimodal Mobility

E - Mobility

Small and Micro Mobility

Shared Mobility(Car Sharing/Pooling)

Last Mile Connectivity

New Technology in Cars(e.g. Internet Radio)

V2V & V2I Communication & Wireless Connectivity

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page 35Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report

Thank you!

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36

Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011

• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and

Technology Planning 40 min

• Video BMW short films: 15 min

• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min

• Working session and brainstorm : Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new

opportunities and business models 20 min

• Team Presentations 30 min

• Summary 05 min

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Objectives of the Workshop

• Aim : Evaluate new business models and “out of box” businessopportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility

• Methodology :

• Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus

• Capture the results in a flip chart• Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid

to conduct the scoring

• Nominate a leader to present your group findings

• Please present using “weather forecast” presentation tips (5minutes, top level and most relevant points)

The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming

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Market

Sectors Customer Segments

Geography

Divestment or

Outsource

Value Creation

Acquisition

Value Delivery

Alliance

OPTIONS

The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) – BrainstormingTool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities

The “ OPTOPUS ” (or Option Octopus) –

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• The 8 „arms‟ of the Optopus:Geography – Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regionsMarket Sectors – Options for growth via expansion into new market sectorsDivestment/Outsource – Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production)Acquisition – Options for growth via merger or acquisition activitiesAlliance – Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnershipsValue Delivery – Growth via the development of new channels to marketValue Creation – Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell)

Customer Segments – Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications

The Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming ofstrategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which any

ideas can be mapped.As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simpleframework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.

The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming Tool

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Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options

StrategicAttractiveness

Financial

AttractivenessImplementation

DifficultyUncertainty

and RiskAcceptability toStakeholders

Options

Criteria

Option1 Option 2 Option 3

The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options.This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness;

financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness.

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BMW Films - Mobility

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Contacts

Robert DuronioConsulting DirectorAutomotive & TransportationP: 703.870.5801Email: [email protected]

Brian DrakeDirector, Business DevelopmentAutomotive & TransportationP: 248.836.8260

Email: [email protected]