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ANALYSIS OF TOURIST FLOWSFROM RUSSIAN FEDERATIONTO THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
Kirill FurmanovOlga BalaevaMarina PredvoditelevaNational Research UniversityHigher School of Economics
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011www.hse.ru
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011FACTORS, AFFECTING THE NUMBER AND FREQUENCY OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS INTERNATIONALLYphotophotophotoVisa-free regime/negotiations on visa system simplification;Increasing amount of tour operators and agencies;Development of Russian relative and supporting services;Development of ICT;Increase of the income of Russian householders;Health lifestyle trend; Long holidays;Climate; Interest in getting acquainted with new, different cultures.
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011NUMBER OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS AND EU COUNTRIES(IN THOUSANDS)photophotophoto
SHARE OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS COUNTRIES
2000
2010
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011GROUPS OF THE EU COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THE SHARE IN THE TOTAL TOURIST FLOW FROM RUSSIA TO THE EU IN 2010photophotophoto
The 1st group( 10%)The 2nd group(4 - 10%)The 3rd group(< 4%)Finland GermanyItaly SpainBulgariaCyprusFranceGreece Czech Republic AustriaUnited KingdomNetherlandsLatviaLithuaniaPolandOther EU countries with the share < 1%
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (1)photophotophotoData available:annual data on number of tourist trips from Russia to the countries of EU, 2000-2010 (11 observations) -> small sample!Parsimony is crucial!
Models used:- Holt model (exponential smoothing with trend),- Box-Jenkins ARIMA
FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (2)Our choice: Holt model
Reason: non-stability of time series for many countries of destination
Empirical evidence: MSE for Holt model is lower for most destinations. In cases when ARIMA performs better, the forecasts obtained by ARIMA and Holt models are essentially similar
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011photophotophotoIncluding explanatory variables into ARIMA:consumer price indices for the destination country and for EU area,real money income index in Russia,exchange rates.
-> no significant improvement
Why?
Inappropriateness of aggregate data due to heterogeneity of Russian consumers, CPI is a poor proxy for tourism prices.
FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (3)
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011photophotophotoNumber of tourist trips from Russia to European UnionFORECAST FOR ALL EU COUNTRIESincrease by 16% expected (2013 to 2010)
3
2496.5774082.5
2075.614297
2372.2414511.5
2010.3114726
2145.206
2286.002
2574.693
2988.4915
3569.797
3119
4082.5
Observed
Predicted
Year
Tourist trips, thousands
, . .
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201020072008
19.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.5135,577,0102,1
131.018.6777331619712777811.611,6
45.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.5267,5
8.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.325,3
4.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.118,1
0.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400,0
6.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.322,3
0.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.90,9
11.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.772,7
5.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.920,9
161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.731,7
14.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.917,9
5.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.80,8
3.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.212,2
1.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.28122,0
7184557391121148173208207263.3263,3
111174209278256231226231330363470.7470,7
57589091100146199244349282386.7386,7
192221228168191219246319365296411.4411,4
106115149119156206246334398336451.5451,5
96670563542232220116910946384343,0
25353952677261798796119.8119,8
2420261919403332464972.672,6
82741293633444564784458.158,1
421214405327377391563657667556709709,0
617587112139174139171229200222.7222,7
66453642445883106234,3
1
cidcountryyeartflowfull_flowrdil_rdier_usdl_er_usdreceiptsl_receiptsarrivalsl_arrivalsrec_translrec_transrec_travellrec_traveler_lcu_usler_lcu_usreer_lcu_uslreer_lcu_ustotrec/totarreurec/euarreulavgprlprlrpsevenlavgp7
1200717.7193172.225.580845367527.1909583333210880000001888600000020773000202690002529000000237600000018559000000165100000000.73063750.7971408333100.010833333399.24666666671019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214931.76772411070.92709814311102.489310506
2200782.5173193172.225.580845367527.19095833334181000000331700000051510005158000468000000705000000371300000026120000001.429051.5592666667110.3976732946104.34423907071019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214643.07871267930.63985590511102.489310506
3200716.3231193172.225.580845367527.190958333349332000000455380000002442100023569000132310000001265000000036101000000328880000000.73063750.7971408333100.989174909899.25499379161019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141932.11421782851.922431371211102.489310506
42007244193172.225.580845367527.1909583333156870000001449500000016165000160390000.73063750.797140833311005.0367710214903.73464679840.89920555430
52007125.7319193172.225.580845367527.1909583333650200000005754300000058666000580040007286000000624600000057734000000512970000000.73063750.7971408333103.2017200287101.51419190321019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214992.05227225710.98708057340
6200784.8334193172.225.580845367527.1909583333461440000004164400000043654000410580003484000000338700000042660000000382570000000.73063750.7971408333100.485004041799.64583038191019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141014.27249257151.009189436511102.489310506
720073.1193172.225.580845367527.19095833335037000000425100000043770004070000815000000638000000422200000036130000005.86166666676.4133333333100.384166666799.87916666671019.327120863601005.03677102141044.47174447171.03923734390
820078.4109193172.225.580845367527.1909583333116860000008122000000149750001567000010870000008830000001059900000072390000002.767953.1031583333105.6791193407102.02664977791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214518.3152520740.515717700111102.489310506
9200717.479193172.225.580845367527.1909583333481930000004380300000030870000306540009495000000900700000038698000000347960000000.49977166670.5434866667105.1792098267101.64334702791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141428.94891368171.42178769460
10200717.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863611005.0367710214000
11200732193172.225.580845367527.1909583333880000000622000000165300015350000.51379166670.560408333311005.0367710214405.21172638440.4031809960
12200764193172.225.580845367527.190958333311920000001077000000148600021800002.5237252.75222511005.0367710214494.03669724770.4915608180
13200727193172.225.580845367527.1909583333141600000013610000001900000194000011.433852996212.465483757811005.0367710214701.54639175260.69803057160
14200742657193172.225.580845367527.1909583333428700000035090000003519000337500014500000001129000000283700000023800000000.73063750.7971408333100.546671222398.87415728461019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141039.70370370371.034493198311102.489310506
15200760.8171193172.225.580845367527.1909583333636530000005441500000080853000779160009444000000790300000054209000000465120000000.73063750.7971408333100.302497479299.61750318751019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214698.38030699730.69488035380
16200730193172.225.580845367527.19095833339601000000829600000093070008659000368000000306000000923300000079900000005.36453566675.83779325102.7783333333102.06251019.327120863601005.0367710214958.07830003460.95327686280
17 200776.4178193172.225.580845367527.190958333372470000006359000000668000064350008590000008180000006388000000554100000020.293666666722.5955833333108.7741666667105.56083333331019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214988.18958818960.983237247311102.489310506
18200758193172.225.580845367527.19095833331472600000012852000000844800078630001.20036583331.253843333301005.03677102141634.49065242271.6262993550
19200724.6193172.225.580845367527.190958333312277000000939400000052240004729000163500000012240000001064200000081700000006.758777.3782491667100.899166666799.47251019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141986.46648340031.97651124880
20 2007100.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863601005.0367710214000
1200831.3197.519324.85287525.5808453675243460000002108800000021935000207730002716000000252900000021630000000185590000000.68267471120.7306375100.7100.01083333331128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151015.1639146970.910579407511208.0336989083
2200896.2208197.519324.85287525.58084536754852000000418100000057800005151000546000000468000000430600000037130000001.33711666671.42905120.701178353110.39767329461128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715811.6870510580.728065195511208.0336989083
3200820.5330197.519324.85287525.580845367553495000000493320000002488400024421000134740000001323100000040021000000361010000000.68267471120.7306375101.5325127709100.98917490981128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152020.06469841531.811953015211208.0336989083
42008349197.519324.85287525.5808453675175860000001568700000015939000161650000.68267471120.730637511114.8549004715970.42994123110.87045403020
52008104.8365197.519324.85287525.5808453675702440000006502000000057192000586660008266000000728600000061978000000577340000000.68267471120.7306375106.0901015017103.20172002871128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151108.30804895510.99412762010
62008145.6398197.519324.85287525.5808453675487570000004614400000042734000436540002565000000348400000046192000000426600000000.68267471120.7306375101.9775164793100.48500404171128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151057.0394465570.948140826311208.0336989083
7200810.2197.519324.85287525.580845367558570000005037000000434700043770001050000000815000000480700000042220000005.645.8616666667100.4491666667100.38416666671128.725726217201114.85490047151150.78821110351.03223137880
820089.546197.519324.85287525.5808453675128370000001168600000012960000149750001069000000108700000011768000000105990000002.40924166672.76795115.9348672094105.67911934071128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715780.3672787980.699972057811208.0336989083
920081587197.519324.85287525.5808453675462850000004819300000030142000308700009861000000949500000036424000000386980000000.543966250.499771666792.1482679022105.17920982671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151561.1597019761.40032546060
10200814.8197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217211114.8549004715000
11200846197.519324.85287525.58084536751134000000880000000168400016530000.48081666670.513791666711114.8549004715532.36539624920.47751989610
12200878197.519324.85287525.580845367514100000001192000000161100014860002.3570752.52372511114.8549004715802.15343203230.71951375170
13200877197.519324.85287525.5808453675163900000014160000001970000190000010.694443093811.433852996211114.8549004715745.26315789470.66848444370
14200847.5667197.519324.85287525.5808453675486100000042870000003583000351900016410000001450000000322000000028370000000.68267471120.7306375102.7916899307100.54667122231128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151218.24381926681.09273755611208.0336989083
152008104.3229197.519324.85287525.58084536756778300000063653000000792180008085300010547000000944400000057236000000542090000000.68267471120.7306375101.6541528821100.30249747921128.72572621721079.871624469211114.8549004715787.26825226030.70616207720
16200851.6197.519324.85287525.5808453675116810000009601000000941500093070004010000003680000001128000000092330000004.935039755.3645356667107.4766666667102.77833333331128.725726217201114.85490047151031.5891264640.92531245640
17 200887.5227197.519324.85287525.5808453675821300000072470000006649000668000010090000008590000007204000000638800000017.071666666720.2936666667125.5341666667108.77416666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151084.8802395210.973113397111208.0336989083
18200883197.519324.85287525.58084536751756700000014726000000860800084480001.083091.200365833301114.85490047151743.1344696971.56355277170
19200831.3197.519324.85287525.58084536751286600000012277000000455500052240001840000000163500000011026000000106420000006.59109916676.7587798.9008333333100.89916666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152350.11485451762.10800064970
20 2008254.6197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217201114.8549004715000
1200929.397201.7197.531.740358333324.852875212390000002434600000021355000219350002063000000271600000019176000000216300000000.71984335980.6826747112101.4516666667100.71234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051109.91565990430.916806828611327.6608310483
22009116207201.7197.531.740358333324.8528754273000000485200000057390005780000497000000546000000377600000043060000001.40669166671.3371166667125.9737662294120.7011783531234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305839.4463667820.693395173311327.6608310483
3200921.8363201.7197.531.740358333324.85287547505000000534950000002422000024884000127240000001347400000034781000000400210000000.71984335980.6826747112102.2533521113101.53251277091234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313052149.77495579491.775746059511327.6608310483
42009282201.7197.531.740358333324.852875147960000001758600000014915000159390000.71984335980.682674711211210.63197313051103.33145115750.91136817430
52009191.4296201.7197.531.740358333324.852875585860000007024400000052231000571920005249000000826600000053337000000619780000000.71984335980.6826747112106.1759362656106.09010150171234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051228.21373618691.01452279760
62009151.8336201.7197.531.740358333324.852875418720000004875700000043239000427340001561000000256500000040311000000461920000000.71984335980.6826747112103.1958599655101.97751647931234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051140.9416389760.942434748411327.6608310483
720094.8201.7197.531.740358333324.85287544440000005857000000428800043470003620000001050000000408200000048070000006.28833333335.6497.78100.44916666671234.710659471901210.63197313051347.36599953991.11294433770
820096.538201.7197.531.740358333324.852875985300000012837000000118900001296000084200000010690000009011000000117680000003.12014166672.409241666798.4533462221115.93486720941234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305990.50925925930.818175367311327.6608310483
9200912.996201.7197.531.740358333324.852875385450000004628500000028199000301420008047000000986100000030498000000364240000000.64191926350.5439662580.844840373792.14826790221234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051535.56499236941.26839950250
10200914.9201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751234.710659471911210.6319731305000
114910130000001134000000132300016840000.505550.480816666711210.6319731305673.39667458430.556235660
124411830000001410000000134100016110002.48403333332.35707511210.6319731305875.23277467410.7229552780
138144400000016390000001900000197000011.257430885110.694443093811210.6319731305831.97969543150.68722759180
14200947.4556201.7197.531.740358333324.852875414100000048610000003423000358300013270000001641000000281400000032200000000.71984335980.6826747112103.8325319378102.79168993071234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051356.68434272961.120641427711327.6608310483
15200977.6200201.7197.531.740358333324.8528755848000000067783000000768000007921800090300000001054700000049450000000572360000000.71984335980.6826747112101.8324847293101.65415288211234.71065947191168.576174874911210.6319731305855.65149334750.70678084860
16200944.4201.7197.531.740358333324.852875922400000011681000000933500094150002240000004010000009000000000112800000005.28394641674.93503975108.5841666667107.47666666671234.710659471901210.63197313051240.67976633031.02481992370
17 200970.2214201.7197.531.740358333324.852875739600000082130000006032000664900091900000010090000006477000000720400000019.06317.0716666667120.4283333333125.53416666671234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313051235.22334185591.02031283611327.6608310483
1820091061633500000017567000000829400086080001.08814169631.0830901210.63197313052040.77602230481.68571132070
19200928.8201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751211400000012866000000467800045550001839000000184000000010275000000110260000007.65381916676.591099166789.445833333398.90083333331234.71065947191168.576174874911210.63197313052824.58836443472.33315196290
20 2009197.2201.7197.531.740358333324.8528751234.710659471901210.6319731305000
2
cidcountryyeartflowpred_tflow72007
2200782.585.80969
2200896.299.39391
22009116109.2338
6200784.895.73302
62008145.6137.0391
62009151.8143.5498
17 200776.465.92937
17 200887.588.16106
17 200970.282.42127
2
00
00
00
Observed
Predicted
year
tourists, thousands
Assessment of model fit: Bulgaria
WideSample
00
00
00
Observed
Predicted
year
tourist, thousands
Assessment of model fit: Italy
PriceCompetitiveness
00
00
00
Observed
Predicted
year
tourist, thousands
Assessment of model fit: Czech Republic
Stata
(2005=100%)LCU GDP per capita, constant dollars
cidcountrytflow2000tflow2001tflow2002tflow2003tflow2004tflow2005tflow2006tflow2007tflow2008tflow2009tflow2010lcpi2000lcpi2001lcpi2002lcpi2003lcpi2004lcpi2005lcpi2006lcpi2007lcpi2008lcpi2009lcpi2010ler2000ler2001ler2002ler2003ler2004ler2005ler2006ler2007ler2008ler2009ler2010lgdpcap2000lgdpcap2001lgdpcap2002lgdpcap2003lgdpcap2004lgdpcap2005lgdpcap2006lgdpcap2007lgdpcap2008lgdpcap2009lgdpcap2010lrmi2000lrmi2001lrmi2002lrmi2003lrmi2004lrmi2005lrmi2006lrmi2007lrmi2008lrmi2009lrmi2010lpci2000lpci2001lpci2002lpci2003lpci2004lpci2005lpci2006lpci2007lpci2008lpci2009lpci2010lerr2000lerr2001lerr2002lerr2003lerr2004lerr2005lerr2006lerr2007lerr2008lerr2009lerr2010
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2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.5 (HHI_C_Y)
( , ) , , , , ,
2.558722919
(HHI_R_Y)
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40467.263826539142355.389854161943901.791203284250510.303329636259061.120221285162426.35056509163007.893008573163013.453116059666937.052449283972268.06789691487054.173362636500000000000
NetherlandsNLDInternational tourism, number of arrivalsST.INT.ARVL9874000100030009500000959500091810009646000100120001073900011008000101040009921000
Netherlands AntillesANTInternational tourism, number of arrivalsST.INT.ARVL722000692000677000672000731000783000774000787000867000982000898000
European UnionEUUConsumer price index (2005 = 100)FP.CPI.TOTL85.62488.40539401691.19092875493.228548215795.326012313397.5708925558100102.6758333333105.5250758407109.8268304472110.2954496442
cidcountrylpci2000lpci2001lpci2002lpci2003lpci2004lpci2005lpci2006lpci2007lpci2008lpci2009lpci2010
11.03121265221.02269115511.01785854271.01355391281.00468962141.001806333310.98805757390.9827012760.9742575140.9748780503
20.94311794650.95022056870.97406480110.9868017820.9780048080.984627604811.01708368441.05491346351.11865919931.1129674096
31.00597582661.01236450761.02758943931.02313094451.00163458211.006307056410.99864423911.02189355571.028143955
41.07511858761.05209427151.04449654391.04372036261.04041154881.020272244210.98718667670.98178061410.97574828690.9688973435
51.02570370431.01871250071.01203220951.00616644460.99970145850.997132622310.99137308260.98212188340.98608393020.9813650656
61.01052250481.00953389491.00480280631.00322654511.00126455031110.99541111430.9889432260.9883605082
71.02944805251.02622154541.01825394331.02016487471.01857661931.00668681510.99234717680.98210307140.9757141980.9844552363
80.93058946660.95146788590.96734697890.99022145641.00213390941.000566632811.01230144761.03303441051.03280594720.9823453234
91.009106189711.00999983981.02037982041.01905927651.007792628710.98502049580.9739188580.95902422370.9663352886
100.97143319790.96765409710.97932299760.99187745751.00190319431.001913260511.00065723121.00095011820.98665748310.9743600699
110.79963716580.85036712370.90041388930.92738961540.94874215330.989752169711.01172770381.06250348031.08282144791.1236042712
121.01120828161.00260148181.000449792710.99074843220.994967530411.00094891690.98610985090.98781734611.0041323436
130.78391718360.85063581120.88509609240.89452288180.94967575980.997862867911.0176039271.01742308281.02252264821.0346228353
140.82136345970.86615470140.91042033110.95704479980.98820373811.000118344810.9979228631.00604195941.02126960791.0256345882
150.34618152910.48840556750.6366869160.7631266680.86033062090.940365804411.03806889071.05888371151.09725835261.1536469703
160.81667853350.87258434590.90819873070.93996321550.93911102550.975730297711.04466270041.10186375361.18944249341.2169972699
171.06684618211.04848428881.03656143531.0281185521.01598711251.009180751410.98927855470.98460009790.97092243220.9698193988
180.95799809190.95723447610.9593048440.9723938050.98457458870.989806458711.00510506371.00620633681.00694884441.0148197443
190.96363353360.96535300910.9694730220.97736580970.98491783680.991485587311.00820016081.00836308591.00828835781
201.01051362231.00355790311.00225820241.0064020221.004944712410.99430255620.98515767690.97826011910.9816507696
210.9261017720.98719794461.00959640951.0062952910.9919080441.003746375110.98479788930.98109030810.98366240651.0169578634
221.00627619061.00314492470.99021050830.98439913830.99079002180.996689719611.00505500751.01971172321.0189003091.0089432637
230.93342201890.92799959690.92195214980.91914414460.92549784190.960151172611.03757500051.11159779661.23257325721.2706327644
241.10821135371.08397891361.06512472571.04474157151.01021355690.998245864311.01036797721.03957253031.10812785661.152474664
251.06403031661.06525961891.05922206741.05225645991.03813334821.016146210.98919739310.98665332230.98655309960.9823614696
261.04497401851.0292969371.01412346561.01097353251.00958204391.0074113210.9903374840.97792977180.96609993550.9628021983
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
cidcountry20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010RMSE201120122013
119.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.50.373110.29469121.3709147.8778169.1141
2131.018.6777331619712777811.60.59430.116847.8407813.323862.524417-7.250457
345.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.50.51150.457222.56601256.2665291.6091321.2055
48.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.30.858804.58576822.9447727.8543930.74143
54.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.10.44680.52112.2181717.104819.6885121.82755
60.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400.45360.84940.60200660.0637747-0.5178317-1.07051
76.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.30.21510.75163.1877222.386623.0831623.79835
80.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.9
911.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.70.554615.79142168.0273985.96404101.3094
105.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.90.506113.40691113.2705722.8961928.66055
11161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.70.56070.35413.76363231.1636233.9124136.36044
1214.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.90.056315.32767717.9090917.4331916.95781
135.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.8101.1308712.0893160.2503166-0.2993747
143.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.20.37880.29181.64125611.4593512.6283913.5169
151.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.2812101.3859112.63182.3507892.701575
167184557391121148173208207263.30.67950.534620.64858236.4061284.7282314.7751
17111174209278256231226231330363470.71043.72676402.3993510.0993549.499
1857589091100146199244349282386.70.43140.600842.87714373.5841426.3517473.4612
19192221228168191219246319365296411.40.42550.580850.03052373.2871428.0602466.618
20106115149119156206246334398336451.50.5520.385147.50377414.8699479.3402523.5905
219667056354223222011691094638430.5494159.647861.53486922.9961221.67649
2225353952677261798796119.80.59808.24977106.9514124.7343134.8342
232420261919403332464972.60.293419.01488654.9990671.9477783.73221
2482741293633444564784458.10.1936132.3316256.3973666.1932475.65954
254212144053273773915636576675567090.48920.2017109.7691655.3153719.6688757.7582
26617587112139174139171229200222.70.0771118.59483240.2674254.0528269.1935
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
421214405327377391563657667556709
655.3153719.6688757.7582
4
country20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013RSS
2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.50.604326574.3700965
2496.5772075.612372.2412010.3112145.2062286.0022574.6932988.49153569.79731194082.5
158.5923-420.967296.631-361.93134.895140.796288.691413.7985581.3055-450.797963.52010201120122013
2655.16931654.6432668.8721648.3812280.1012426.7982863.3843402.294151.10252668.2034082.542974511.54726
. 514946.889604433702.590721246835.08062534.82180121872.931025000115651.886556249928058.5950491065235.570506252000236.004209
diff-420.967296.631-361.93134.895140.796288.691413.7985581.3055-450.797963.5
beta_AR-0.586916878100000000
alpha_AR200.0334014789
forecast_AR2522.71603886422398.17666103782422.76722713712266.06724921972403.39985272262605.28878104922945.65957773363428.65239224873583.6137693353
sq_error22642.7373211911150439.77101231277040.2348098733397.394288672929341.3423042119146844.323811262389547.52187339295884.6040253433248887.471146858
MSE:129002.822288124MSE_Holt:480730.485566278
23225.86787415280.520.98
121864.744826732
200020102013 () (2013 2010 )
825849-16%
4217097577%
6122327322%
1913619140%
13111.60-100%
4526832622%
8253020%
5182117%
0000%
6222827%
1110%
117311659%
5212414%
16323613%
1418196%
510-100%
4121525%
1220%
7126331821%
11147157923%
5738746219%
1924114448%
10645253017%
9664328-35%
2512014017%
24738010%200020102013
10923425710%24964084.64726
24964084.64726
yeartflowarima(0,1,1)arima(1,1,0)Holtresma2resar2resholt2
2000421
2001214461.3637454.664449.861188.8000776957919.16089655601.64
2002405378.0456408.7225372.77296726.5396793613.857006251038.5821071616
2003327427.3941333.3707413.96141555210078.9753148140.585818497562.2877948076
2004377442.6593435.3924401.94169020434311.143676493409.67237776622.0879102454
2005391469.8911399.7315416.99115713576223.8056592176.23909225675.5402492543
2006563497.1064437.8236431.35013643464341.9665209615669.1311169617331.6865767988
2007657546.8834504.086516.229683641312125.6655955623382.69139619816.2819677341
2008667601.0117650.2856606.3610088614354.45573689279.371167363677.0872463557
2009556648.7075716.5005661.76817410618594.6805562525760.4105002511186.9066537311
2010709679.8004686.4769643.0254267112852.61664016507.290033614352.6443206432
MSE11279.86494573812705.84094049312186.4744826732
606.361008861661.7681741061643.0254267112
449.8372.77296413.961415552401.9416902043416.9911571357431.3501364346516.2296836413606.361008861661.7681741061643.0254267112
4
Observed
Fitted
Year
Tourist trips, thousands
ARIMA(1,1,0)
Holt
Observed
Predicted
Year
Tourist trips, thousands
200020102013 () (2013 2010 )
1913619140%
5182117%
7126331821%
2512014017%
16323613%
11147157923%
5738746219%
6222827%
1110%
1924114448%
10645253017%
24738010%
825849-16%
0000%
1418196%
117311659%
9664328-35%
5212414%
1220%
510-100%
4121525%
4217097577%
6122327322%
4526832622%
8253020%
13111.60-100%
cidcountryyeartflowfull_flow
1200717.7
2200782.5173
3200716.3231
42007244
52007125.7319
6200784.8334
720073.1
820078.4109
9200717.479
10200717.8
11200732
12200764
13200727
14200742657
15200760.8171
16200730
17 200776.4178
18200758
19200724.614.563
20200711.572
2120071.377
22200715.494
232007
24200732.965
2520079.268
26200721.978
27200717.725
2820073.69
2920079.105
3020073.43
1200831.3
2200896.2208
3200820.5330
42008349
52008104.8365
62008145.6398
7200810.2
820089.546
920081587
10200814.8
11200846
12200878
13200877
14200847.5667
152008104.3229
16200851.6
17 200887.5227
18200883
19200831.320.847
20200815.321
2120080.931
22200823.368
2320082.227
24200848.63
25200810.098
26200831.161
27200818.84
2820083.187
29200810.393
3020083.694
1200929.397
22009116207
3200921.8363
42009282
52009191.4296
62009151.8336
720094.8
820096.538
9200912.996
10200914.9
11200949
12200944
1320098
14200947.4556
15200977.6200
16200944.4
17 200970.2214
182009106
19200928.819.524
20200914.097
2120090.164
22200920.913
2320091.267
24200956.013
25200911.631
26200927.027
27200912.444
2820092.639
29200910
3020092.281
12006
22006
32006
42006
52006
62006
72006
82006
92006
102006
112006
122006
132006
142006
152006
162006
17 2006
182006
192006
202006
212006
222006
232006
242006
252006
262006
272006
282006
292006
302006
FORECASTS FOR THE MOST POPULAR DESTINATIONS (1) FinlandGermany
4
4212000
214449.8
405372.77296
327413.961415552
377401.9416902043
391416.9911571357
563431.3501364346
657516.2296836413
667606.361008861
556661.7681741061
709643.0254267112
2011700.430064415
2012728.8058898717
2013757.1817153284
Observed
Fitted
Year
Tourist trips, thousands
, . .
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201020072008
19.05921.39324.1728.81143.82950.49653.42977102.197135.5135,577,0102,1
131.018.6777331619712777811.611,6
45.04249.38546.48451.42105125136178227214267.5267,5
8.06110.2489.62314.01720.61222.15312.31414.56320.84719.52425.325,3
4.6015.3672.6253.327.3589.4398.45811.57215.32114.09718.118,1
0.0570.020.0220.5631.6391.5120.781.3770.9310.16400,0
6.1689.92512.26211.90917.35919.56713.7915.49423.36820.91322.322,3
0.9791.6542.4394.2851.9460.6770.4222.2271.2670.90,9
11.12218.57416.0716.34822.83926.49223.99232.96548.6356.01372.772,7
5.416.74511.4366.7178.1046.457.7459.26810.09811.63120.920,9
161510.79212.77217.0620.88121.14621.97831.16127.02731.731,7
14.38813.77930.54114.49216.33313.84215.51917.72518.8412.44417.917,9
5.0374.9293.2551.9823.7624.765.363.693.1872.6390.80,8
3.4986.7083.5334.7195.8417.62510.3629.10510.3931012.212,2
1.1451.2060.9891.9562.5245.1086.3763.433.6942.28122,0
7184557391121148173208207263.3263,3
111174209278256231226231330363470.7470,7
57589091100146199244349282386.7386,7
192221228168191219246319365296411.4411,4
106115149119156206246334398336451.5451,5
96670563542232220116910946384343,0
25353952677261798796119.8119,8
2420261919403332464972.672,6
82741293633444564784458.158,1
421214405327377391563657667556709709,0
617587112139174139171229200222.7222,7
66453642445883106234,3
1
cidcountryyeartflowfull_flowrdil_rdier_usdl_er_usdreceiptsl_receiptsarrivalsl_arrivalsrec_translrec_transrec_travellrec_traveler_lcu_usler_lcu_usreer_lcu_uslreer_lcu_ustotrec/totarreurec/euarreulavgprlprlrpsevenlavgp7
1200717.7193172.225.580845367527.1909583333210880000001888600000020773000202690002529000000237600000018559000000165100000000.73063750.7971408333100.010833333399.24666666671019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214931.76772411070.92709814311102.489310506
2200782.5173193172.225.580845367527.19095833334181000000331700000051510005158000468000000705000000371300000026120000001.429051.5592666667110.3976732946104.34423907071019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214643.07871267930.63985590511102.489310506
3200716.3231193172.225.580845367527.190958333349332000000455380000002442100023569000132310000001265000000036101000000328880000000.73063750.7971408333100.989174909899.25499379161019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141932.11421782851.922431371211102.489310506
42007244193172.225.580845367527.1909583333156870000001449500000016165000160390000.73063750.797140833311005.0367710214903.73464679840.89920555430
52007125.7319193172.225.580845367527.1909583333650200000005754300000058666000580040007286000000624600000057734000000512970000000.73063750.7971408333103.2017200287101.51419190321019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214992.05227225710.98708057340
6200784.8334193172.225.580845367527.1909583333461440000004164400000043654000410580003484000000338700000042660000000382570000000.73063750.7971408333100.485004041799.64583038191019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141014.27249257151.009189436511102.489310506
720073.1193172.225.580845367527.19095833335037000000425100000043770004070000815000000638000000422200000036130000005.86166666676.4133333333100.384166666799.87916666671019.327120863601005.03677102141044.47174447171.03923734390
820078.4109193172.225.580845367527.1909583333116860000008122000000149750001567000010870000008830000001059900000072390000002.767953.1031583333105.6791193407102.02664977791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214518.3152520740.515717700111102.489310506
9200717.479193172.225.580845367527.1909583333481930000004380300000030870000306540009495000000900700000038698000000347960000000.49977166670.5434866667105.1792098267101.64334702791019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141428.94891368171.42178769460
10200717.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863611005.0367710214000
11200732193172.225.580845367527.1909583333880000000622000000165300015350000.51379166670.560408333311005.0367710214405.21172638440.4031809960
12200764193172.225.580845367527.190958333311920000001077000000148600021800002.5237252.75222511005.0367710214494.03669724770.4915608180
13200727193172.225.580845367527.1909583333141600000013610000001900000194000011.433852996212.465483757811005.0367710214701.54639175260.69803057160
14200742657193172.225.580845367527.1909583333428700000035090000003519000337500014500000001129000000283700000023800000000.73063750.7971408333100.546671222398.87415728461019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141039.70370370371.034493198311102.489310506
15200760.8171193172.225.580845367527.1909583333636530000005441500000080853000779160009444000000790300000054209000000465120000000.73063750.7971408333100.302497479299.61750318751019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214698.38030699730.69488035380
16200730193172.225.580845367527.19095833339601000000829600000093070008659000368000000306000000923300000079900000005.36453566675.83779325102.7783333333102.06251019.327120863601005.0367710214958.07830003460.95327686280
17 200776.4178193172.225.580845367527.190958333372470000006359000000668000064350008590000008180000006388000000554100000020.293666666722.5955833333108.7741666667105.56083333331019.3271208636976.512688355811005.0367710214988.18958818960.983237247311102.489310506
18200758193172.225.580845367527.19095833331472600000012852000000844800078630001.20036583331.253843333301005.03677102141634.49065242271.6262993550
19200724.6193172.225.580845367527.190958333312277000000939400000052240004729000163500000012240000001064200000081700000006.758777.3782491667100.899166666799.47251019.3271208636976.512688355811005.03677102141986.46648340031.97651124880
20 2007100.8193172.225.580845367527.19095833331019.327120863601005.0367710214000
1200831.3197.519324.85287525.5808453675243460000002108800000021935000207730002716000000252900000021630000000185590000000.68267471120.7306375100.7100.01083333331128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151015.1639146970.910579407511208.0336989083
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42008349197.519324.85287525.5808453675175860000001568700000015939000161650000.68267471120.730637511114.8549004715970.42994123110.87045403020
52008104.8365197.519324.85287525.5808453675702440000006502000000057192000586660008266000000728600000061978000000577340000000.68267471120.7306375106.0901015017103.20172002871128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151108.30804895510.99412762010
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7200810.2197.519324.85287525.580845367558570000005037000000434700043770001050000000815000000480700000042220000005.645.8616666667100.4491666667100.38416666671128.725726217201114.85490047151150.78821110351.03223137880
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10200814.8197.519324.85287525.58084536751128.725726217211114.8549004715000
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17 200887.5227197.519324.85287525.5808453675821300000072470000006649000668000010090000008590000007204000000638800000017.071666666720.2936666667125.5341666667108.77416666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047151084.8802395210.973113397111208.0336989083
18200883197.519324.85287525.58084536751756700000014726000000860800084480001.083091.200365833301114.85490047151743.1344696971.56355277170
19200831.3197.519324.85287525.58084536751286600000012277000000455500052240001840000000163500000011026000000106420000006.59109916676.7587798.9008333333100.89916666671128.72572621721079.871624469211114.85490047152350.11485451762.10800064970
20 2008254.6197.519324.85287525.58084536
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