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The Agent’s Perspective
Guest Speakers
North West Branch Networking Breakfast Friday 24th March 2017 7:30am
Radisson Blu Edwardian Hotel, Peter Street, Manchester
Dominic Pozzoni Director
National Offices
Colliers International
Stephen Toal Director
Property Management Research
Savills
Caroline Baker Partner
Manchester UK Consulting
Cushman & Wakefield
Confidential – Colliers International 2016
2
Manchester Office Market Overview •March 2017
Manchester Skyline from Colliers Office
Confidential – Colliers International 2016
3
Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Manchester Global Brand
4
Retail Review
Stephen Toal
Director, Property Management Research
Occupier Performance
Property Management Research
What Do We Do?
Performance Benchmarking
Performance Forecasting
Occupier Engagement
Management Information Analysis
Risk Analysis
+0.1
UK Retail Sales
Last 12 Months
UK Retail Sales
2017 to Date
-0.5
Source - British Retail Consortium
Retail Overview – Key Stats
UK Retail Sales
Retail Overview – Key Stats
UK Food & Beverage Sales
+0.7
UK F&B Sales
Last 12 Months
UK F&B Sales
2017 to Date
Source – Coffer Peach Business Tracker
+1.8
Retail Performance Last 12 Months
Best Performers Electricals Sporting Goods Health & Beauty
Jewellery Restaurants
Retail Performance Last 12 Months
Worst Performers Menswear
Discount / Value Retail
Confectionery
Music, Books, Games, DVDs Homewares
Clothing
% Change in Consumer Prices 1995-2014
Challenges for 2017
• National Living Wage
• Business Rates
• Inflation
• Sterling
• Apprenticeship Levy
• Consumer confidence
Trends in Retail / Leisure
F&B Technology
Experience Personalisation
15
We manage: • 142 Shopping Centres in the UK and
Ireland totalling 25m sq ft and an annual rent roll of £400m
• 292 Retail Parks (inc single let retail parks) in the UK and Ireland totalling 23.5m sq ft and an annual rent roll of £336m
• 155 Leisure properties in the UK and Ireland including major landmark schemes totalling 7m sq ft and an annual rent roll of £200m
About Savills PM
Retail Schemes
The Rock, Bury The Centre, Livingston Fosse Park, Leicester
17
Leisure
Manchester Arena Albert Dock Star City, Birmingham
Contact Details
Stephen Toal (BA Hons MMRS)
Head of Research
Property Management
D: 0161 244 7735 M: 07972 000190
Email: [email protected]
Manchester City Centre Residential Overview
Friday 24th March 2017
20
Agenda
Manchester’s residential growth
Supply side characteristics
Values
PRS
Manchester’s Residential Growth From Industrial Revolution to Modern International City
Industrial Revolution
Modern International City
Manchester’s Residential Growth A history of the City Centre as a residential location
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
600
8,000
25,000
Supply-Side Characteristics Existing stock profile and completions
Existing stock profile: 75% city centre units are apartments 65% city centre units are privately rented City Centre Residential completions:
31
8
19
2
78
4
25
1
92
0 1
,29
4
1,4
59
2,3
39
3,5
44
1,9
44
2,0
95
84
3
-
-
83
29
9
21
5
21
5
29
3
3,700
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completions Target
Source: Manchester City Council AMR, Cushman & Wakefield
Supply Side Characteristics City Centre Residential Tracker
Supply-Side Characteristics Pipeline supply
3,219 4,369
13,757
7,778
Proposal Planning Submitted
Planning Permission
Granted
Under Construction
Forward Looking Supply in Manchester City Centre
Total – 29,123
Supply-Side Characteristics Pipeline supply – large schemes
Middlewood Locks Developer – FairBriar International Architect – WCEC Group • Located in Salford, close to
Manchester City Centre • 24 acres, £1bn residential led
mixed use development • Over 2,000 new homes • Phase 1 – completion October
2018 (571 units) • Phase 2 – Planning permission
granted Dec 2016 (546 apartments)
St Michael’s Developer – St. Michael’s Partnership Architect – Make Architects Manchester City Centre - Bootle Street, former police station site Application submitted February 2017 for development of up to 21 and 31 storeys comprising: • 201 bedroom 5 star hotel • 159 apartments • Over 180,000 sq ft of
offices/retail/leisure space across 15 units
• Synagogue • 3 areas of public realm March 2017 - Application on hold pending refinements
Manchester Life £1bn JV between Abu Dhabi United Group, MCC 10-year agreement will provide more than 6,000 new homes Developers/Architects – various Phase 1 - 6 schemes in Ancoats and New Islington, over 1,000 new units Phase 2 – Vesta 171 units (pre app stage)
Values
8.3% 7.4% 7.1%
5.5%
4%
Manchester Birmingham Liverpool Leeds Sheffield
% C
han
ge Y
oY
Jan
20
17
Hometrack City House Price Index
City Centre
Achieved Pricing: 2016 - £196,955 (40.4%)
2010 - £140,277
Volume of Sales: 2016 – 2,479 (116%)
2010 – 1,147
Average Sales
£280
£350 £367
£0
£50
£100
£150
£200
£250
£300
£350
£400
Salford Manchester City Centre
Didsbury
Recently Achieved £ per sq ft
Private Rented Sector PRS City Centre Overview
• PRS represents 4 out of 5 city centre apartments
• Build cost issues have lead to delay in some schemes
• Lot of noise – hearing about individual schemes 4 times
• Pre planning
• Planning
• Investor secured
• Start on site
Private Rented Sector Rents
• Forms of PRS
• Majority of new build schemes sold on the back of pre-sale to investors
• Institutions
• Off shore investment vehicles or purchasers
• Block and fragmented sales
• Build to Rent – designed to hold and focus on efficient management
31
Caroline Baker MA (Cantab) MTP MRTPI
Partner – Manchester
Development Consulting
Direct: +44 (0)161 235 7654
Derek Nesbitt MRICS
Partner - Residential Development
RICS Registered Valuer
Residential - Valuation, Agency & Student
Direct: +44 (0)161 4555 3790
Mobile: +44 (0) 7747 008426
Contact Details
Q&A
Dominic Pozzoni
Director
National Offices
Colliers International
Stephen Toal
Director
Property Management Research
Savills
Caroline Baker
Partner
Manchester UK Consulting
Cushman & Wakefield
HOB’s Studio
Manchester Model
