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2017SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR
2
General Election – Voting Intention
Base: All giving a General Election voting intention = 853; all certain to vote = 797
Data collected among 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
HOW DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
42%
26%
25%
5%2%
All giving a voting intention Certain to vote
SNP lead +16 SNP lead +18
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
OTHER
43%
25%
25%
5%2%
3
THERESA MAY NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY
-43 swing from September
-18swing from September
-9swing from September
-27 Net -4 Net +4 Net
SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 46% SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 38%
Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister
and Deputy First Minister
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/ HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
4
KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN
+8swing from September
-26swing from September
+1swing from September
-7
swing from September
+13
swing from September
-2 Net +5 Net +6 Net +12 Net -13 NetSATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 50%
Satisfaction with party leaders
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion MonitorBase: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
5
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trendARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER/PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick HarvieTheresa May Nicola Sturgeon Kezia DugdaleJohn Swinney Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
6
SNP SCOTTISH LABOUR SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SCOTTISH LIB DEMS
THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY36%
THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY 19%THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY19%
THEY ARE MY
PREFERRED PARTY5%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY
BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY
HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING
IN MY CONSTITUENCY
14%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT
MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A
CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
35%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT
MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A
CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
16%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY
BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY
HAD A CHANCE OF
WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
33%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM46%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM41%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM60%
I WOULD NEVER
CONSIDER VOTING FOR
THEM
58%
DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 5% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4%
Party preferencesTHINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion MonitorBase: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
7WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THECONSERVATIVES’ THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Capable PM
42%
40%
13%
5%
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
THERESA MAY
JEREMY CORBYN
NEITHER/ ANOTHER
CANDIDATE
DON’T KNOW
8FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Party policies – Health and the NHS
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
34%
48%
15%
9%
33%
18%
3% 4% 1% 3%1% 1%
SN
P 2
017
SN
P 2
015
Co
n 2
017
Co
n 2
015
Lab
20
17
Lab
20
15
Lib
Dem
201
7
Lib
Dem
201
5
Gre
en
20
17
Gre
en
20
15
Oth
er
20
17
Oth
er
20
15
Health and the NHS
9FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Party policies – Education
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
34%
49%
18%
10%
25%
16%
4% 4%2% 2% 1% 1%
SN
P 2
017
SN
P 2
015
Co
n 2
017
Co
n 2
015
Lab
20
17
Lab
20
15
Lib
Dem
201
7
Lib
Dem
201
5
Gre
en
20
17
Gre
en
20
15
Oth
er
20
17
Oth
er
20
15
Education
10FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Party policies – Crime and anti-social behaviour
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
33%
40%
23%
15%17%
14%
2%4% 1% 2% 1% 2%
SN
P 2
017
SN
P 2
015
Co
n 2
017
Co
n 2
015
Lab
20
17
Lab
20
15
Lib
Dem
201
7
Lib
Dem
201
5
Gre
en
20
17
Gre
en
20
15
Oth
er
20
17
Oth
er
20
15
Crime and anti-social behaviour
11FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Party policies – The environment
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
14%
28%
10%
6%
11%9%
4% 4%
46%
36%
1%
SN
P 2
017
SN
P 2
015
Co
n 2
017
Co
n 2
015
Lab
20
17
Lab
20
15
Lib
Dem
201
7
Lib
Dem
201
5
Gre
en
20
17
Gre
en
20
15
Oth
er
20
17
Oth
er
20
15
The environment
12FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Party policies – Defence / Europe
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
28%
33%
15%
3% 3%1%
SN
P 2
017
Co
n 2
017
Lab
20
17
Lib
Dem
201
7
Gre
en
20
17
Oth
er
20
17
Defence
37%
25%
14%
5% 1% 1%
SN
P 2
017
Co
n 2
017
Lab
20
17
Lib
De
m 2
01
7
Gre
en
20
17
Oth
er
20
17
Europe
13
TO WHICH EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
#INDYREF2?
42%
42%
50%
38%
3%
4%
3%
4%
53%
51%
46%
57%
Agree Disagree
There should be an independence referendum in the next
two years if the SNP gains the majority of seats in
Scotland at the general election
There should be an independence referendum in the next
two years if the SNP does as well or better than it did in
the 2015 general election
There should not be an independence referendum in the
next two years regardless of the general election results
There should be an independence referendum in the next
two years regardless of the general election result
Base: 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
14
IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
45%
51%
4%YES
NO
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
47%53%
All certain voters All giving VI and
Certain to vote
Base: All giving voting intention = 921. All certain to vote = 891
Data collected among 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
CERTAIN VOTERS
Support for independence
DON’T KNOW
15
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,016 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 22nd- 27th May 2017.
Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure and internet usage using
SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector
Employment series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,016) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected];
0131 220 5699