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Electrification in post-conflict countries: Lessons from Liberia and South Sudan

Ryan Anderson

Head of Section, Renewable Energy Advisory Services

June 12th, 2013

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Agenda

1. Provide insight into some interesting programs being partlyfinanced by Norwegian ODA

2. Describe an «experiment» on building a power sector from scratch

3. Highlight some emerging «results» of experiment

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South Sudan – world’s most challenging project finance deal?

Liberia – over NOK 1b over 5 years

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Liberia - Monrovia South Sudan - Juba

Experiment? A side-by-side comparison

a) Starting point: 0.1

b) Institutional coop – NVE-Ministry

c) Distribution: Purely public

d) HPP: PPP - Fula Rapids HPP

e) Tariffs: Well under cost

f) Collection rates: 0-30%

g) Utility does not have own accounts

h) Generation build-up: Fossil, butcomplete stand still – oil stop

i) Fula – opportunity to reduce costsand extend affordable clean powerto population

a) Starting point: 0

b) Institutional coop – NVE-Ministry

c) Distribution: PPP - 5-yr lease

d) HPP: Public - Mt. Coffee

e) Tariffs: Nearly cost reflective

f) Collection rates: ca. 90%

g) Commercial aspects of distribution addressed first

h) Still slow network build-out

i) Generation build-up: fossil based –also back-up

j) Distribution – opportunity to build up demand to effectively utilize the affordable clean power from day 1

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Some emerging lessons

• A generation without education doescreate challenges!

• On the job training is clearly best – but requires patients, dedication investment, and taking a risk

• Commercial focus, accountability and incentives a positive (but not perfect) force

• Commercial starting point for utility makes things easier

• To «do no harm» demands have to placed on donors

• Results-based funding is administratively challenging

• Fossil fuels still preferred in providing rapid power build up

• Natural to start with capitals – but how to address rest of country?

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How will this experiment be assessed in thefuture?

1) In what ways can private sector participation be positive/negative?

2) How can donors effectively help sector on a sustainable trajectory?

3) How does one establish a payment-for-public-services culture and overcome remnants of conflict?

4) What conditions and sequences will prove most effective in a rapid but sustainable access expansion program?

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Ryan AndersonSection HeadRenewable Energy Advisory Servicesrga@multiconsult.no+47 98 26 39 73