Demand Projection for Rural Electrification in Myanmar · Urban electrification takes first priority and is followed by rural electrification Priority to grid electrification within

Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.

Demand Projection for

Rural Electrification in

Myanmar

MASAYUKI SEINO

Policy Alternatives Research Institute,

The University of Tokyo.

Workshop on the Future Direction of Rural Electrification in Myanmar

At Department of Rural Development, The Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and

Rural Development, NayPyiTaw

[Session 2: The UT's Research]

15:05 - Cost Estimation in Rural Areas in Myanmar by UT

Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.

Demarcation of international organization

Organi

-zation

Output of study

JICA National Electricity

Plan (2030)

National Power System Expansion Plan

Demand in 2030; Low case

9,100 MW, High case 14,542 MW,

Installed capacity in 2030;

23,594 MW (scenario 3)

WB Rural Electrification

Plan (2030)

Rural electrification plan

Electrification households;

7,236,000, Grid electrification; 99%,

ADB

National Energy Plan

(2035)

National energy development plan

Off-grid RE

Demonstration

Project

Verification test of off-grid

electrification by SHS

Supporting plan for electrification

U-

Tokyo

Advisory Works on

Rural Electrification

Plan

Demand projection in rural area in 2030

Preliminary least cost off-grid

electrification scenario

2


Framework of this Research

3

(2) Cost Estimation

(1) Demand Projection

(3) Development of Preliminary Scenarios

Simulate• Optimal system design for representative

demand casesEstimate• Minimum cost for Off-grid electrification(using “HOMER®“ for calculations)

Estimate• Setting target electrification rate (On-

grid + Off-grid) • Medium voltage distribution line area

→ Projection of electrification area (On-grid・Off-grid）

• The number of electrified villages anddemand projection (Off-grid)

Estimate• Total cost to meet off-grid demand

Renewable energy potential

Costs of power generation technologies, etc.

Costs of fuel, etc.

Population

Achievements of rural electrification in

neighboring countries

Power supply plan High voltage transmission

lines extension plan


2. Current Situation of electricity access in

Myanmar (as of 2012)

Total demand is 2,075 MW

Household electrification rate is 26%

Total population is estimated about 50.5 million

About 70% of population live in rural area (64,346

villages)

Of 64,346 villages, 17,554 villages are

electrified

Of which 3,802 villages are electrified by grid

Another 13,752 villages are electrified by off-grid

such as mini hydro, biomass(rice husk), diesel

and etc.

45% of household in urban area electrified, but only

18% of household in rural area electrified

4

4


Figure 1 Union of Myanmar

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d

(kW

h/Y

ea

r/H

ou

seo

ld)

Rural area electrification rate (%)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d

(kW

h/Y

ea

r/H

ou

seo

ld)

Urban and rural area electrification rate (%)

5

Electrification rate & energy demand

in rural area in 2012

Urban grid

Rural off-grid

Rural un electrifiedUrban

un electrified

Rural grid

Rural grid

Rural off-grid

Urban un electrified


3. Demand projection for rural electrification

(1) Setting target household electrification rate

Per capita kWh calculated by JICA MP demand forecast

Estimation of country electrification rate target by per

capita kWh In reference to the example of neighboring

countries

(2) Demand projection conditions

Share of energy for household is set at 42% of the total

energy base on the current actual data in Myanmar

Urban electrification takes first priority and is followed by

rural electrification

Priority to grid electrification within allocated power supply

into each state and region, and off grid electrification

supplements it

• Area of grid electrification by power system expansion

plans of JICA Master Plan and MOEP national grid

expansion (HV line and sub station) plan

1.5%/year of population growth rate by UN data

Even off-grid electrification requires to enable civilized

living in modern society for low income household 6


US$

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

kW

h p

er c

apit

a

Electrification rate (% )

Thai

Bhutan

Vietnam

CambodiaBangladesh

LaosPhillippines Sri Lanka

Mongolia

Nepal

Uganda

Malaysia

India

Indonesia

Myanmar

MOEP case

JICA low case

JICA high case

7

Setting target household electrification rate

in 2030 as 70% applying low case



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d

(kW

h/Y

ea

r/H

ou

seh

old

)


8

Electrification rate & energy demand

in rural area in 2030


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d

(kW

h/Y

ea

r/H

ou

seo

ld)

Urban and rural area electrification rate (%)

Urban grid

MOEP grid electrification area

Rural grid

Rural off-grid

(Micro-grid)Rural un

electrified

Urban un electrified

Rural gridNational grid electrification area

Rural off-grid

(Micro-grid) Rural un electrified

Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved. 9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Ayeyrwaddy Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Bago Electrification rate (%)

Grid Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Chin Electrification rate (%)

Off-gridUn electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)Kachin Electrification rate (%)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Kayar Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Kayin Electrification rate (%)

Grid Off-grid

Un electrified

Electrification rate in 2030 in State/Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Magway Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Mandalay Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Mon Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Rakhine Electrification rate (%)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Sagaing Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Shan Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)Tanintharyi Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Off-grid

Un electrified

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d (

kW

h/Y

/HH

)

Yangon Electrification rate (%)

Grid

Un electrified


4. Conclusion and next step study

(1) Conclusion

Off-grid household electrification rate in 2030 is

16% of total Household, whereas 39% of

household in rural areas will remain un electrified.

Proportions between grid and off-grid

electrification vary widely in rural areas by state

or region because of range of possible grid

electrification area and allocated power supply to

states and regions

To achieve the target electrification rate of 70%

by 2030, 434 MW of off-grid electrification will be

required.

WB Rural Electrification Plan which intends to

cover 99% of whole country area by MV line grid

in 2030, however because of power supply

capacity by the national grid, certain amount of

villages should be electrified by off-grid to

accomplish target electrification rate in 2030 10

Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved. 11

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dem

an

d

(kW

h/Y

ear/

Ho

use

hold

)


Grid

Off-grid Un electrified

SHS ?

(2) Next step study

Utilization of current national census data

(population and number of household in urban and

rural area)

Utilization of geospatial data

Utilization of current data of household demand in

urban and rural area

Left of un electrified areas should be cover by

SHS?


Data and information which will

improve our study

12

• Current national census data and

• Geospatial data of villages

• Current data of household and village

electrification rates and demand

• Geospatial data of current and future plan

of transmission line and sub-station

• Standard connection method of HV line

and MV line

• Data of existing and planned small hydro

power

• Data of existing diesel power

Documents

Demand Projection for Rural Electrification in Myanmar · Urban electrification takes first priority and is followed by rural electrification Priority to grid electrification within