Dan foreman main stage - 2013

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Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK

Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage



Overview

Many predictions surrounding 2030

Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard

Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today



Method

Over 80 qualitative interviews

Over 15,000 quantitative interviews

Some desk research



Our research …

Survey deployed using GMI / Lightspeed and client sample

Responses from 15,000+ people

Over 90% within 1 day

12000+ images uploaded

Covered all major regions

55% found it ‘fun’, less than 1% ‘boring’



Big picture for 2030



We will be wearing mobile devices

Over 4 out of 10 expect the eyes to control the device

Richard Scionti

Devices may be somewhat function

specific but collectively your “wearable network”

will far exceed the capabilities available in

today’s mobile.

Wearable devices account for nearly 2/3 of peoples expectations

20%

33%

10%

20%

9%

8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Smart phone

Spectacles

Contact lens

Arm patch on clothes

A brain implant

Liquid-gel



Even less of a ‘phone’ than today



Etiquette and rule shifts

Transport

Family

There is a colleague of ours who we refer to as

"The Man who isn't there" because he is so

connected to his mobile

Judith Passingham

School

Business

Robot Wars or Robot Laws?

Alistair Hill



Mobile is invisible

We’ll soon be living in a real life matrix – if you’re not plugged in

you will literally be separated from the rest of the world.

Robert Wang

People won't notice computers, in the same way they don't notice sheet metal, but they will be

everywhere and in everything from lightbulbs to packets of juice, in almost constant contact with us

and our environment.

Andreiko Kerdemeledis

The internet will be such an intrinsic part of

every device and interaction we have,

we’ll stop even realizing it exists at all.

Issac Rogers

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=3uPelj69__7ANM&tbnid=Q4iJMKMnzgWmmM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://client.visionslive.com/&ei=-SpMUuGrI8iU0AWl-YHIAw&psig=AFQjCNEeEPpEWxfzzyj4K05jzTN4ouHC_g&ust=1380809837597866









Mobile will be everywhere

Data will be everywhere and all-encompassing

Some markets will be mobile only

The shape of the MR industry will change



Mobile everywhere

Marcus Wikars

The best use of mobile is pretty much everything! MR doesn’t consider

mobile enough in proposals, because in general, researchers selling to clients don’t have good enough knowledge of its capabilities or

limitations.

Dave Lee

There are no businesses for whom mobile is not relevant. If you’re in

business, you need to be in mobile. And if you’re in market research you need to

be thinking ahead of your clients.

It’s not a question of if you add mobile to your

research mix, but when.

Reineke Reitsma

. Researchers seek to further exploit the high penetration of mobile

phones

ESOMAR GMR 2012 Report



Therefore data everywhere

Data used to be scarce – now it is everywhere and more

highly detailed. The challenge is to make sense of it, numbers, verbatims, rich

media (audio, video, images) social impressions, millions of

data points

A defining trend of the next hundred years will be digital information driven

via mobile platforms. The defining technology for our species, for the next

hundred years, will be mobile…

Lenny Murphy

Our connection to the digital world will literally become a sixth sense. We’ll be studying a digital

footprint of consumers, rather than relying on reported behavior

Isaac Rogers

David Nelems



Some markets will be mobile only

Aysegul Ataman Scharning

Mobile is just another channel...unless you

live in Africa - then its the ONLY channel.

Peter Searll

Emerging markets will be the focus while more and more market research will be conducted about Asia. Mobile surveys will be adopted more easily than any

other tool in market research.

In a place like Nigeria if it's not face to face

it'll be straight to mobile.

Debbie Pruent



But who will lead?

The US market is more ahead of the curve than most; at least in my industry, there is more opportunity for virtual research in the US than in, for instance Japan, which can be extremely restrictive with privacy laws and what can be done.

VP, Double Helix

Lenny Murphy

APAC will probably lead in some of the more advanced, early applications of mobile due to their cultural fascination with technology, manufacturing capacity of low cost devices and robust infrastructure. On the other hand, the US will lead the market from a business perspective, with the rest of the world following on quickly.

The innovation will come from America … China will copy at 20%

of the price

Garry Kasparov



The industry reports will show a different landscape

40

<0.1

Non MobileResearch

MobileResearch

40Non Mobile

Research

MobileResearch

** Up to $300bn

* Estimates in $bn** Based on qualitative discussions with industry leaders

2012 2030









The impact of mobile is colossal

Different data needs a different approach

New research models will evolve

Debriefs and outputs will be more dynamic

Need to embrace change

Implications for us all



Colossal Impact

BULLDOZER…..that’s what will bethe effect of mobile in MR.

A typical MR project will be in the DIY mold where the power is in the hands

of the one who needs answers.

Biz and MR is going to change.And mobile in MR is NOT just survey apps and the like. We need to have a

blinders-off approach.

Pravin Shekar



Different data sources need a different approach

The way we get an answer to a question will change. Small

clumps of information coming from diverse set of sources.

A huge thing that researchers will need to do in the future is letting

go of consistency.

Alex Johnson

Challenge the existing measures of the industry. As lifestyles change in

response to technology, the research industry needs to ensure they are

measuring the right things.

Graeme Sparshott

Market research will become augmented, bite-sized, and auto-analyzed. Auto collected behavioral data will be dominant

with less focus on opinion data. This yields an efficient compilation of data that will help us come to real time decision

making points.Peter Kirk



Constant data stream = new skills and players

People are increasingly willing to openlyprovide detailed self profiling, life-streaming

around consumption habits, moods and emotionsas well as desires and needs.

With such a mass of highly individuated data, market research is going to have to get serious

about building systems that can handle big data. So the only players that can win in the long game are

IT companies that borrow research know-how to build the algorithms.

Jamie Burke



The School of Hard Knocks

CEOs and companies should LISTEN. ADAPT. EXPERIMENT.

EXPAND. REPEAT. RAPIDLY.

Pravin Shekar

Test, and learn. 80% or indeed 70% today is more

than good enough in many scenarios rather than waiting for 100%

tomorrow.

Jayne Dow

Give your people permission to fail –that’s the only way they will be able

and willing to try new things.

Simon Falconer



The horse has already bolted

The scary part is that most of this Iron-man like technology already exists, its just not quite been put together in the right package (or in the right

size) to make it work…we just need to see a consolidation around key

services, key providers, and a bringing together of what already exists, along with an industry that’s

open enough to accept the new.

Joe Webb



Connecting with people will be harder

Marketing becomes easier in 10 years. Fewer channels to cover, and a more

direct connection to the consumer wherever they are, marketers have an easier time finding their consumers.

The struggle will be to make a connection with that consumer. We’ll be better at digesting new information and more

overall content, it’ll be harder to deliver a marketing message that isn’t directly

targeted at the specific consumer. In a way, the consumer is easier to find

but harder to touch.

Isaac Rogers

We’ll shift from casting wide nets to very narrow ones – because [today]

there’s a lot of noise and a lot of waste – so imagine a

place where there’s a lot less guessing – and a lot

more of a direct relationship between the

individual and advertising, buying, selling …

Phil Garland



Control of your own data

This move towards so called big data will lead to, under data

protection legislation, the user taking a more proactive role in

managing their own data. Trade your own data for rewards, be

provided with rewards based on the data profiles you upload.

Paul Roberts

Market research will specialize in meaningful

exchanges with consumers. This access

will most likely come at a high price as consumers begin to see the value in

their opinion and personal data.

Josephine Hansom



Debriefs are not a single event

Edward Appleton

Data becomes stale very quickly. Innovations that allow

real-time analysis to form actionable insight will emerge.

Fast Data will be an organisation’s lifeblood. Ignore

the Fast Data and you lose your edge.

Andreiko Kerdemeledis

Debriefs can encourage conservative thinking.

Insights become powerful, acted upon, through an

ongoing dialogue. Business challenges constantly

change.





Mobile is the Tool – not the Solution

Steve August

Expect a dizzying array of choices when it comes to mobile

research. But remember mobile doesn’t automatically mean good

research. Mobile is simply a medium that gives you the opportunity to get

closer to your customers than ever before. It's still takes research skills to

make mobile deliver.

Don’t chase technology.

Technology is a tool to uncover

insights. Chase insights.

Stuart Ryder

. The beauty of mobile is not about the device – it’s the

state of being .

Jayne Dow



Typical research project?

1. More inputs; blurred qual quant boundaries; more Partnerships with tech businesses; .

2. Client data + open behavioral data + proprietary passive & active behavioural and (short-form) survey data

3. Will also include:• Text analytics/NLP/network analysis.....• Algorithms for more personalised research experience and

incentives, improving participation rates and openness (e.g. Amazon)

• More inputs from 'quantified self' (aka 'living data') sources• Neuroscience inputs• Video via mobile and other mobile meta data such as location,

environmental conditions etc.

Simon Falconer



Not there yet

Collecting data using a mobile device is a huge buzz in the

industry, but it hasn’t replaced other modes of data collection … yet. When it does happen –

it’s going to transform portions of the MR industry.

Carol Haney

. I think the future will look more like today than we expect. As an

example: I was in the airport, walking past a newsstand where there was a

magazine with a grumpy looking Buzz Aldrin with the quote, “You

promised us Mars colonies and all we got was Facebook.”

Steve August

The medium opens so many possibilities but it seems to be taking a long time for the industry

to embrace these!

Fiona Blade



Inertia will remain a problem

Marcus Wikars

We are lazy creatures

Inertia. Reliance on norms. The hassle of truly embracing

emerging markets.

Ben Leet



How do we get there?

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=WyGuOD8QhLdPvM&tbnid=MsQS9RGCoQCRsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://knowledgeinfuser.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/when-talking-to-a-chro-there-is-a-big-chasm-out-there/&ei=6SxMUq-TEqTt0gX89IDABQ&psig=AFQjCNENo5vp-1cN5G0qTt2PbzuXVaXcFg&ust=1380810320128465

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=WyGuOD8QhLdPvM&tbnid=MsQS9RGCoQCRsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://knowledgeinfuser.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/when-talking-to-a-chro-there-is-a-big-chasm-out-there/&ei=6SxMUq-TEqTt0gX89IDABQ&psig=AFQjCNENo5vp-1cN5G0qTt2PbzuXVaXcFg&ust=1380810320128465



PANELS

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=36UyxocgRJwv3M&tbnid=GMg3dSSmZaZvvM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.westernfreepress.com/2011/09/16/questions-continue-on-solyndra/solar-panels/&ei=TC1MUtKNO6Gr0QX5iIGQBQ&psig=AFQjCNGiZoSLQOOFoF0RQJ1p-7jnMxmqPg&ust=1380810437158809

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=36UyxocgRJwv3M&tbnid=GMg3dSSmZaZvvM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.westernfreepress.com/2011/09/16/questions-continue-on-solyndra/solar-panels/&ei=TC1MUtKNO6Gr0QX5iIGQBQ&psig=AFQjCNGiZoSLQOOFoF0RQJ1p-7jnMxmqPg&ust=1380810437158809



Tech solutions to handle large volumes of qual data



Mobile friendly approximations for long methods

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=RSLh--la_uiyaM&tbnid=lb2DoAXi2q_IUM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.zazzle.com.au/fair+trade+tshirts&ei=ljBMUqv7Eemv0QWIoID4Aw&psig=AFQjCNGjZ8-vN0lyD9upXjtn4lKBOg7Azw&ust=1380811239717724

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=RSLh--la_uiyaM&tbnid=lb2DoAXi2q_IUM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.zazzle.com.au/fair+trade+tshirts&ei=ljBMUqv7Eemv0QWIoID4Aw&psig=AFQjCNGjZ8-vN0lyD9upXjtn4lKBOg7Azw&ust=1380811239717724



Creative applications of mobile for NEW methods

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=8pCzIbPGlV9mKM&tbnid=G-W4ALsnRZxcXM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://rwconnect.esomar.org/?p=5072&ei=GzFMUtO_OMrD0QXMh4GQAQ&psig=AFQjCNGNXDxrdAMumkCZf7mxReKDAx9ung&ust=1380811315621736

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=8pCzIbPGlV9mKM&tbnid=G-W4ALsnRZxcXM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://rwconnect.esomar.org/?p=5072&ei=GzFMUtO_OMrD0QXMh4GQAQ&psig=AFQjCNGNXDxrdAMumkCZf7mxReKDAx9ung&ust=1380811315621736



Front and center

Kim-Fredrik Schneider

In a world of digital proliferation and diversification, our

understanding of the consumer at the centre of all activity is

fundamental.The extent to which mobile is

synonymous with the consumer will be a central component of this

understanding.

Judith Passingham

Mobile is Dead. Long Live Mobility.

Mobile market research will have to be a fundamental

element of any MR project. To get to the people you want to get to – you have to use mobile – it will be the most facilitating and meaningful

point of contact.

Finn Raben



Some things will remain the same

Lord Leverhulme

Businesses will still have problems that need fixing. Technology,

devices will change. But you still need people to answer questions. Technology and inference can only go so far. There is a fundamental

need that will remain.

Alistair Hill

I know that half of the money I spend is wasted. I just don't know which half.



Much like the Wizard of Oz

Like the Tin Man: Do we have the

heart?

Like the Scarecrow: Do we have the

brains?

And like the Lion: Do we have the courage?



In Summary

$300 bn industry?

Mobile the central role

Are you ready for 2030?





Q & A

Sue York Dan ForemanLumi Mobile