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Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Overview
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Method
Over 80 qualitative interviews
Over 15,000 quantitative interviews
Some desk research
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Our research …
Survey deployed using GMI / Lightspeed and client sample
Responses from 15,000+ people
Over 90% within 1 day
12000+ images uploaded
Covered all major regions
55% found it ‘fun’, less than 1% ‘boring’
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Big picture for 2030
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
We will be wearing mobile devices
Over 4 out of 10 expect the eyes to control the device
Richard Scionti
Devices may be somewhat function
specific but collectively your “wearable network”
will far exceed the capabilities available in
today’s mobile.
Wearable devices account for nearly 2/3 of peoples expectations
20%
33%
10%
20%
9%
8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Smart phone
Spectacles
Contact lens
Arm patch on clothes
A brain implant
Liquid-gel
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Even less of a ‘phone’ than today
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Etiquette and rule shifts
Transport
Family
There is a colleague of ours who we refer to as
"The Man who isn't there" because he is so
connected to his mobile
Judith Passingham
School
Business
Robot Wars or Robot Laws?
Alistair Hill
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile is invisible
We’ll soon be living in a real life matrix – if you’re not plugged in
you will literally be separated from the rest of the world.
Robert Wang
People won't notice computers, in the same way they don't notice sheet metal, but they will be
everywhere and in everything from lightbulbs to packets of juice, in almost constant contact with us
and our environment.
Andreiko Kerdemeledis
The internet will be such an intrinsic part of
every device and interaction we have,
we’ll stop even realizing it exists at all.
Issac Rogers
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile will be everywhere
Data will be everywhere and all-encompassing
Some markets will be mobile only
The shape of the MR industry will change
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile everywhere
Marcus Wikars
The best use of mobile is pretty much everything! MR doesn’t consider
mobile enough in proposals, because in general, researchers selling to clients don’t have good enough knowledge of its capabilities or
limitations.
Dave Lee
There are no businesses for whom mobile is not relevant. If you’re in
business, you need to be in mobile. And if you’re in market research you need to
be thinking ahead of your clients.
It’s not a question of if you add mobile to your
research mix, but when.
Reineke Reitsma
. Researchers seek to further exploit the high penetration of mobile
phones
ESOMAR GMR 2012 Report
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Therefore data everywhere
Data used to be scarce – now it is everywhere and more
highly detailed. The challenge is to make sense of it, numbers, verbatims, rich
media (audio, video, images) social impressions, millions of
data points
A defining trend of the next hundred years will be digital information driven
via mobile platforms. The defining technology for our species, for the next
hundred years, will be mobile…
Lenny Murphy
Our connection to the digital world will literally become a sixth sense. We’ll be studying a digital
footprint of consumers, rather than relying on reported behavior
Isaac Rogers
David Nelems
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Some markets will be mobile only
Aysegul Ataman Scharning
Mobile is just another channel...unless you
live in Africa - then its the ONLY channel.
Peter Searll
Emerging markets will be the focus while more and more market research will be conducted about Asia. Mobile surveys will be adopted more easily than any
other tool in market research.
In a place like Nigeria if it's not face to face
it'll be straight to mobile.
Debbie Pruent
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
But who will lead?
The US market is more ahead of the curve than most; at least in my industry, there is more opportunity for virtual research in the US than in, for instance Japan, which can be extremely restrictive with privacy laws and what can be done.
VP, Double Helix
Lenny Murphy
APAC will probably lead in some of the more advanced, early applications of mobile due to their cultural fascination with technology, manufacturing capacity of low cost devices and robust infrastructure. On the other hand, the US will lead the market from a business perspective, with the rest of the world following on quickly.
The innovation will come from America … China will copy at 20%
of the price
Garry Kasparov
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
The industry reports will show a different landscape
40
<0.1
Non MobileResearch
MobileResearch
40Non Mobile
Research
MobileResearch
** Up to $300bn
* Estimates in $bn** Based on qualitative discussions with industry leaders
2012 2030
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
The impact of mobile is colossal
Different data needs a different approach
New research models will evolve
Debriefs and outputs will be more dynamic
Need to embrace change
Implications for us all
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Colossal Impact
BULLDOZER…..that’s what will bethe effect of mobile in MR.
A typical MR project will be in the DIY mold where the power is in the hands
of the one who needs answers.
Biz and MR is going to change.And mobile in MR is NOT just survey apps and the like. We need to have a
blinders-off approach.
Pravin Shekar
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Different data sources need a different approach
The way we get an answer to a question will change. Small
clumps of information coming from diverse set of sources.
A huge thing that researchers will need to do in the future is letting
go of consistency.
Alex Johnson
Challenge the existing measures of the industry. As lifestyles change in
response to technology, the research industry needs to ensure they are
measuring the right things.
Graeme Sparshott
Market research will become augmented, bite-sized, and auto-analyzed. Auto collected behavioral data will be dominant
with less focus on opinion data. This yields an efficient compilation of data that will help us come to real time decision
making points.Peter Kirk
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Constant data stream = new skills and players
People are increasingly willing to openlyprovide detailed self profiling, life-streaming
around consumption habits, moods and emotionsas well as desires and needs.
With such a mass of highly individuated data, market research is going to have to get serious
about building systems that can handle big data. So the only players that can win in the long game are
IT companies that borrow research know-how to build the algorithms.
Jamie Burke
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
The School of Hard Knocks
CEOs and companies should LISTEN. ADAPT. EXPERIMENT.
EXPAND. REPEAT. RAPIDLY.
Pravin Shekar
Test, and learn. 80% or indeed 70% today is more
than good enough in many scenarios rather than waiting for 100%
tomorrow.
Jayne Dow
Give your people permission to fail –that’s the only way they will be able
and willing to try new things.
Simon Falconer
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
The horse has already bolted
The scary part is that most of this Iron-man like technology already exists, its just not quite been put together in the right package (or in the right
size) to make it work…we just need to see a consolidation around key
services, key providers, and a bringing together of what already exists, along with an industry that’s
open enough to accept the new.
Joe Webb
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Connecting with people will be harder
Marketing becomes easier in 10 years. Fewer channels to cover, and a more
direct connection to the consumer wherever they are, marketers have an easier time finding their consumers.
The struggle will be to make a connection with that consumer. We’ll be better at digesting new information and more
overall content, it’ll be harder to deliver a marketing message that isn’t directly
targeted at the specific consumer. In a way, the consumer is easier to find
but harder to touch.
Isaac Rogers
We’ll shift from casting wide nets to very narrow ones – because [today]
there’s a lot of noise and a lot of waste – so imagine a
place where there’s a lot less guessing – and a lot
more of a direct relationship between the
individual and advertising, buying, selling …
Phil Garland
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Control of your own data
This move towards so called big data will lead to, under data
protection legislation, the user taking a more proactive role in
managing their own data. Trade your own data for rewards, be
provided with rewards based on the data profiles you upload.
Paul Roberts
Market research will specialize in meaningful
exchanges with consumers. This access
will most likely come at a high price as consumers begin to see the value in
their opinion and personal data.
Josephine Hansom
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Debriefs are not a single event
Edward Appleton
Data becomes stale very quickly. Innovations that allow
real-time analysis to form actionable insight will emerge.
Fast Data will be an organisation’s lifeblood. Ignore
the Fast Data and you lose your edge.
Andreiko Kerdemeledis
Debriefs can encourage conservative thinking.
Insights become powerful, acted upon, through an
ongoing dialogue. Business challenges constantly
change.
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile is the Tool – not the Solution
Steve August
Expect a dizzying array of choices when it comes to mobile
research. But remember mobile doesn’t automatically mean good
research. Mobile is simply a medium that gives you the opportunity to get
closer to your customers than ever before. It's still takes research skills to
make mobile deliver.
Don’t chase technology.
Technology is a tool to uncover
insights. Chase insights.
Stuart Ryder
. The beauty of mobile is not about the device – it’s the
state of being .
Jayne Dow
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Typical research project?
1. More inputs; blurred qual quant boundaries; more Partnerships with tech businesses; .
2. Client data + open behavioral data + proprietary passive & active behavioural and (short-form) survey data
3. Will also include:• Text analytics/NLP/network analysis.....• Algorithms for more personalised research experience and
incentives, improving participation rates and openness (e.g. Amazon)
• More inputs from 'quantified self' (aka 'living data') sources• Neuroscience inputs• Video via mobile and other mobile meta data such as location,
environmental conditions etc.
Simon Falconer
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Not there yet
Collecting data using a mobile device is a huge buzz in the
industry, but it hasn’t replaced other modes of data collection … yet. When it does happen –
it’s going to transform portions of the MR industry.
Carol Haney
. I think the future will look more like today than we expect. As an
example: I was in the airport, walking past a newsstand where there was a
magazine with a grumpy looking Buzz Aldrin with the quote, “You
promised us Mars colonies and all we got was Facebook.”
Steve August
The medium opens so many possibilities but it seems to be taking a long time for the industry
to embrace these!
Fiona Blade
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Inertia will remain a problem
Marcus Wikars
We are lazy creatures
Inertia. Reliance on norms. The hassle of truly embracing
emerging markets.
Ben Leet
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
How do we get there?
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
PANELS
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Tech solutions to handle large volumes of qual data
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Mobile friendly approximations for long methods
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Creative applications of mobile for NEW methods
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Front and center
Kim-Fredrik Schneider
In a world of digital proliferation and diversification, our
understanding of the consumer at the centre of all activity is
fundamental.The extent to which mobile is
synonymous with the consumer will be a central component of this
understanding.
Judith Passingham
Mobile is Dead. Long Live Mobility.
Mobile market research will have to be a fundamental
element of any MR project. To get to the people you want to get to – you have to use mobile – it will be the most facilitating and meaningful
point of contact.
Finn Raben
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Some things will remain the same
Lord Leverhulme
Businesses will still have problems that need fixing. Technology,
devices will change. But you still need people to answer questions. Technology and inference can only go so far. There is a fundamental
need that will remain.
Alistair Hill
I know that half of the money I spend is wasted. I just don't know which half.
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Much like the Wizard of Oz
Like the Tin Man: Do we have the
heart?
Like the Scarecrow: Do we have the
brains?
And like the Lion: Do we have the courage?
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
In Summary
$300 bn industry?
Mobile the central role
Are you ready for 2030?
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Dan Foreman, Lumi Mobile, UK
Festival of NewMR 2013 - Main Stage
Q & A
Sue York Dan ForemanLumi Mobile