Omid roozmand presentation

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior and Fishscape

Omid RoozmandEnvironmental Studies, Dartmouth College


Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Scienceo Case Study: Consumer Behavior

ABM of Consumer Behavioro M&S of Culture and Personality

• Conceptual Model• Computational Model• Experimental Results

o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)• Maximizers• Satisficers• Results

ABM of Fishscape Conclusion and Future Work

Outline







Outline


Pictures: (Gilbert 2009)

Agent-Based Modeling

Introduction

An agent-based model is a class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole. Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model


Introduction

Consumer Behavior

Why do people need luxury products?


Introduction

Consumer Behavior$6.88 million for a car plate!


How Do Consumers Behave?

Introduction (Human Behavior)

Social

Cultural

Personal

Psychological


• Why do consumers of different countries have different purchasing behavior?

• Why do consumers of one country, or even of one family have different purchasing behavior?

• How are consumers influenced by other consumers?

Consumer Behavior

Introduction


Introduction

ABM: Understanding and Predicting the consumer behavior and its Consequences

1- Understanding and Predicting the Individual consumer Behavior

2- Understanding and Predicting the Consumption Behavior of a Society

3- The Impact of the Behavior of Society on Environment






ABM of AFishscape Conclusion and Future Work

ABM of Consumer Behavior


Sociological and Psychological

Theories

Consumer BehaviorAnd

Economics

Computer Science and

Artificial Intelligence



Five Stages model of Consumer Behavior

Agent-Based Technology- MASQ Meta Model

- Culture (Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, UA)- Personality: Big Five (OCEAN)- 6 Related Needs From Maslow, Max-Neef


Need Recognition

Information Search

Evaluation Purchase Post-Purchase


Consumer Behavior Decision Process



Hofstede Cultural Model



Human Needs as Main Drives!

Social Status

Social Responsibility

Status Seeking (Power)

Safety

Novelty

Affiliation


Internal External

Mind

Culture

Body/Object

Space


Agent-Based Model (MASQ Meta Model) (Ferber 2009)

Individual

Collective





o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)• Maximizers vs. Satisficers• Results




Mind

Culture

ABM of Consumer Behavior (Conceptual Model) (Roozmand 2011)





o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)• Maximizers vs. Satisficers• Results



سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خريدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصيت

57

اميد روزمند20/7/1390

1957

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS

Calculating Weights of Needs

},*)1(*)1(max{ ssss AstatusPdi*DTPdi*statusw

},***)1(*)1(max{ srsr DTstatuspdiAstatusPdiw

0,*)1()1,,(*max AMasAEOavgMaswst

AMaswsaf *)1(

})],1(*)(*)1(max{[ affaff AIndAEavgIndw

}),1(**)}1(,max{max{ novnov OUAOUAIDVw

Computational Model

Personality

Perception Update Agent‘s

State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


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2057


- Consumer agent perceive the products in the market

- Consumer agent sees the other consumer agents and their products

Computational Model

Personality


State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


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2157


Actual State

Actual state

)1( )*( ssss prwtSS eas

Actual State (During Consumption)tSSSS

tSS asdecayas *)1(1

Computational Model

Personality


State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


57


2257


Social influence on desired state

)1

*(

1_

CAPRpr

SSSS prN

wtSS esocietyds

)1

*(

1_

PRpr

SSSS prN

wtSS emarketds

New products’ influence on desired state

)_,_( tSS

tSS

tSS marketdssocietydsAVGds

Computational Model

Desired State

)_,_( tSS

tSS

tSS marketdssocietydsfds


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Discrepancy between actual and desired state

tSS

iSS

tNeed asdsD

i

Arousal

ii

ii

NeedtNeed

NeedtNeed

DFalse

DTrueAroused

AVG_Price)*1()*1(1

Ww

NeediNeed

ie

Computational Model

Personality


State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Mind

Belief


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Select the a product which satisfies the aroused need.

},,,,,{ affnovsafstsrssk

kktpr asdsE

tprprsel Epr min arg

Computational Model

Personality


State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind







Experimental Results


Experimental Results (Individual Decision Making)

1- There are totally 4 agents where 2 of them use our model and initially hold low status product2- There are 2 products (high social status, low social status)


Eleven European Countries. Social Status (Car Purchasing Behavior)

Experimental Results (Country-Level Results)



Eleven European Countries. Social Responsibility(Car Purchasing Behavior)









Motivation

Consumer Behavior

Do we need it all?


CCAD

Maximizers: Consumers will find the best bundle of product regarding their budget constraints

Satisficers: Consumers are satisfied by any affordable bundle of items which provides a utility above their threshold. They are not looking for best bundle!

Maximizers vs. Satisficers


CCAD

Maximizers: We applied dynamic programming to find the best bundle

𝑏𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑙𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑠𝑡=𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑚𝑎𝑥

(𝑥1 ,𝑥2 ,… ,𝑥𝑛)∑𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑥 𝑖𝑢(𝑖𝑡𝑚𝑖)

Maximizers Algorithm

h𝑊 𝑒𝑟𝑒∑𝑖=1

𝑥 𝑖𝑝𝑖≤𝑏𝑢𝑑𝑔𝑒𝑡


Chromosome’s Utility: .

Satisficers: Genetic algorithm has been applied for satisficers to find the first affordable bundle.

Genetic Algorithm is a technique in computer science to find near optimum-solutions for search problems

Chromosome: Each chromosome includes a bundle of available products

Chromosome’s cost:

Feasible Chromosome: ().

Satisficers Algorithm

CCAD


CCAD

Items Price Utility

Item X 50 40

Item Y 30 20

Item Z 100 90

Chromosome 1 = <2, 1, 5>

Utility(Chromosome 1) = 2*40 + 1*20 + 5*90 = 550Cost(Chromosome 1) = 2*50 + 1*30 + 5*100 = 630


Satisficers Algorithm

CCAD

Initial Population

Sort Chromosomes

Crossover

Mutation

Re-Structure Chromosomes

Satisficing Chromosome has

been found

Yes

No


Maximizers- Income influence

CCAD- Results

Products1- Item X: Low-quality disposable items2- Item Y: Low-quality durable items3- Item Z: High-quality durable items

Consumer Agents100 Maximizers agents

System100 runs, and 6 months simulation


CCAD- Results




Satisficers purchase more than Maximizers!

CCAD- Results


Future Work

• Adding social norms to consumer agents decision process

• Building a social network and evaluating the effects of social norms on agents’ behavior

• Finding the effect of consumer behavior on resource scarcity!!


Future Work for Consumer behavior

Connection of GIS Simulation with our Agent-Based Platform









Fisheries- Simulation


Motivation

Final Aim of the Project


Different runs with different cheating probability

Fisheries- Results


10 groups of fishers with different characteristics

Fisheries- Results

G1: Fishers that never cheatG3: Not sharing information when they have not much informationG5: Cheating by not sharing true informationG7: Cheating by sharing some false informationG9: They never share any information!


Motivation

Final Aim of the Project


Thank you!


NeedPersonalityCulture

Theory

Computational Model F(C, P, N)

Infrastructure based on Repast Symphony

Verification Evaluation

Real Data

Yes

No

Process

ParameterAgent

Space

Expert

Data

Input to

Monitor

Condition

End

Transaction

Mind Process

Acceptable

Consumer behavior Multi-Agent System (MASQ)

Expert

Extracting relationship Culture and Needs

Extracting relationship Personality and Needs

Selecting MathFunctionsand Algorithms

Experimental results


Development Stages



Seller AgentsConsumer Agents

Products in the market

…c1 c2 cn

…s1 s2 sn

Consumers’ Inboxes

Sellers’ Inbox

Message H

andler Consum

ers-Sellers

Message H

andler Consum

ers-SellersInboxes for agent

communication

…c1 c2 cn

Consumers’ Inboxes

Message Handler Consumers

Consumer-Seller Space

Consumer Space

…

Consumer Mind

Consumer Body

Seller Mind

Consumer –Seller Body

Interaction: Body-Space

Interaction: MH-SpaceItem

Product

Inbox


Conceptual Model - Interactions


25 Countries O E A Wealth

(PPP)Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD

Austria 49.29 10.34 50.61 9.21 45.90 8.34 66,639Belgium 54.59 8.55 45.99 10.08 45.07 9.02 85,818Denmark 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 66,191Finland 50.33 11.04 49.84 9.26 49.46 8.82 38,754France 48.09 9.52 45.44 8.77 46.64 8.19 93,729Germany 47.80 9.32 50.31 8.99 45.08 8.17 89,871Greece 51.53 8.91 48.60 7.14 52.42 9.04 72,825Ireland 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 89,327Italy 50.00 9.99 49.80 8.09 46.52 8.59 119,704Netherlands 49.94 9.21 49.75 9.22 46.08 8.77 120,086Norway 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 72,254Portugal 50.29 9.51 48.06 9.67 49.52 8.76 53,357Spain 49.64 9.70 49.00 8.28 45.26 8.57 92,253Sweden 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 80,091Switzerland 52.62 9.38 50.47 8.81 47.69 8.19 144,186UK 45.97 9.71 49.79 9.68 47.31 9.44 128,959Australia 50.07 8.78 48.98 10.06 47.51 10.70 90,906Canada 48.75 9.96 48.32 9.71 49.14 9.13 89,252Hong Kong 41.64 9.11 46.91 7.59 42.69 8.31 202,189Israel 50.95 10.13 48.65 8.40 49.44 9.33 64,034Japan 41.53 10.46 46.73 8.06 42.21 8.81 124,858South Korea 44.30 8.74 44.86 6.71 44.11 6.85 45,849New Zealand 49.49 8.78 50.61 9.36 46.83 9.19 55,823Singapore 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 113,631United States 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 143,727





Initial Product

Status Wealth A E O Pdi

1 0.70 0.70 0.50 0.60 0.55 0.30 Agent A

1 0.70 0.70 0.50 0.40 0.55 0.30 Agent B



Factor Countries Our-Result

EMS Our-Results-SS

EMS McCrae World Bank Data

PDI 11 SR= -0.89 Env= -0.62 SS= 0.83 Design= 0.50Int Image= 0.49

MAS 11 Saf= -0.55 Safety= -0.39 St = o.71 Advanced Tech= 0.51Motor = 0.56

IND 25 Nov = 0.5415

Trying New Brands = 0.82

Aff = -.718 Number of Cofe per million population = -0.55

Adopting Radio=0.883TV = 0.888Mobile=0.469Fax = 0.624PC = 0.801Internet Hosts = 0.873

UA 25 Nov = -0.59 Image of car =0.7

Adopting Radio=-.41TV = -----Mobile=-0.77Fax = -0.2PC = -0.39Internet Hosts = -0.46

O Nov = 0.57Dom = 0.52

Dom= 0.45Ach = 0.46Change = 0.6

E Aff = 0.61Dom = 0.5

Dom= 0.38Ex = 0.65Aff = 0.83

A Dom = -0.55Aff = 0.57

Dom=-.46Agg= -0.68Aff= 0.19



• Consumer behavior studies the individuals and the processes they use to select, use and dispose of products or services to satisfy their aroused needs and the impacts that these processes have on the consumer and environment.

Introduction

Consumer Behavior


Wealth (PPP)$

Agreeableness Extraversion Openness Pdi (SD=0.05)

SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean

93729 8.19 46.64 8.77 45.44 9.52 48.09 68 France85818 9.02 45.07 10.08 45.99 8.55 54.59 65 Belgium53357 8.76 49.52 9.67 48.06 9.51 50.29 63 Portugal92253 8.57 45.26 8.28 49.00 9.70 49.64 57 Spain

119704 8.59 46.52 8.09 49.80 9.99 50.00 50 Italy120086 8.77 46.08 9.22 49.75 9.21 49.94 38 Netherlands128959 9.44 47.31 9.68 49.79 9.71 45.97 35 UK89871 8.17 45.08 8.99 50.31 9.32 47.80 35 Germany

144186 8.19 47.69 8.81 50.47 9.38 52.62 34 Switzerland38754 8.82 49.46 9.26 49.84 11.04 50.33 33 Finland66639 8.34 45.90 9.21 50.61 10.34 49.29 11 Austria

Austria Finland Swiss Germany UK NL Italy Spain Portugal Belgium France

0.293 0.081 0.524 0.292 0.463 0.404 0.364 0.229 0.088 0.238 0.235 xm

5.992 1.162 4.195 2.540 3.644 3.126 2.368 1.579 0.947 1.730 1.579 α





Cultural Differences

Individualism/Collectivism

Masculinity/Feminity

Power Distance

Uncertainty Avoidance

Long Term/ Short Term

Indulgence/ Restraint




Cultural Differences

Individualism/Collectivism

Masculinity/Feminity

Power Distance


Long Term/ Short Term

Indulgence/ Restraint



Big-Five Model of Personality (OCEAN)

Openness

Neuroticism

Agreeableness

Conscientiousness

Extraversion

Down to earth, practical, rational

Imaginative, Creative, Loves

‘new’

Low Scores High Scores

Down to earth, practical, rational

Organized, Disciplined

Quiet, Independent, Cautious

Talkative, Active, Seek Novelty and

Excitement

Suspicious,Critical, Irritable

Trusting, Lenient, Good-natured

Calm, Unemotional Worried, Emotional


Needs

Social Status

Social Responsibility

Power

Safety

Novelty

Affiliation

Cultural Context

Power Distance

Masculinity

Individualism


+-

+-

-

+-

Imitate the same status people

Find a product which is environment-friendly

Compete with others

Find a product which safe and useful for family

Try to be different from other people

Imitate the behavior of group members

BehaviorAffected BY:

Products- Same social status people

Products

Products- All people who have better product

Products

Products- Other people

In-group members


Human Needs as Main Drives!


Wealth! and Social Status



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Personality


State

NeedRecognition

Action Estimation

STATE

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

}ss

μA,*status)(1*Pdi)(1DT*status*Pdimax{ss

w

Calculating Weight for Social Status Need

Computational Model

Mind


57


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Engineering

Omid roozmand presentation