Cb omid-roozmand

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior

Omid Roozmand


Introduction

Consumer Behavior

$6.88 million for a car plate!


How Do Consumers Behave?

Introduction (Human Behavior)

Social

Cultural

Personal

Psychological


• Why do consumers of different countries have different purchasing behavior?

• Why do consumers of one country, or even of one family have different purchasing behavior?

• How are consumers influenced by other consumers?

Consumer Behavior

Introduction


Introduction

ABM: Understanding and Predicting the consumer behavior and its Consequences

1- Understanding and Predicting the Individual consumer Behavior

2- Understanding and Predicting the Consumption Behavior of a Society

3- The Impact of the Behavior of Society on Environment


Introduction

o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science

o Case Study: Consumer Behavior

ABM of Consumer Behavior

o M&S of Culture and Personality

• Conceptual Model

• Computational Model

• Experimental Results

o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD)

• Maximizers

• Satisficers

• Results

Conclusion and Future Work



Sociological and Psychological

Theories

Consumer BehaviorAnd

Economics

Computer Science and

Artificial Intelligence



Five Stages model of Consumer Behavior

Agent-Based Technology-MASQ Meta Model

- Culture (Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, UA)- Personality: Big Five (OCEAN)- 6 Related Needs From Maslow, Max-Neef


Need Recognition

Information Search

Evaluation Purchase Post-Purchase


Consumer Behavior Decision Process



Hofstede Cultural Model



Human Needs as Main Drives!

Social Status

Social Responsibility

Status Seeking (Power)

Safety

Novelty

Affiliation


Internal External

Mind

Culture

Body/Object

Space


Agent-Based Model (MASQ Meta Model) (Ferber 2009)

Individual

Collective


Introduction









• Maximizers vs. Satisficers

• Results




Mind

Culture

ABM of Consumer Behavior (Conceptual Model) (Roozmand 2011)


Introduction









• Maximizers vs. Satisficers

• Results



مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ : سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری

و شخصیت

امید روزمند57

20/7/1390

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57Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS

Calculating Weights of Needs

},*)1(*)1(max{ ssss AstatusPdi*DTPdi*statusw

},***)1(*)1(max{ srsr DTstatuspdiAstatusPdiw

0,*)1()1,,(*max AMasAEOavgMaswst

AMaswsaf *)1(

})],1(*)(*)1(max{[ affaff AIndAEavgIndw

}),1(**)}1(,max{max{ novnov OUAOUAIDVw

Computational Model

Personality

Perception

Update

Agent‘s

State

Need

RecognitionAction

Estimation

S

T

A

T

E

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


و شخصیت


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- Consumer agent perceive the products in the

market

- Consumer agent sees the other consumer agents and their products

Computational Model

Personality

Perception

Update

Agent‘s

State

Need

RecognitionAction

Estimation

S

T

A

T

E

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


و شخصیت


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Actual State

Actual state

)1()*( ssss prwt

SS eas

Actual State (During Consumption)

t

SSSS

t

SS asdecayas *)1(1

Computational Model

Personality

Perception

Update

Agent‘s

State

Need

RecognitionAction

Estimation

S

T

A

T

E

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


و شخصیت


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Social influence on desired state

)1

*(

1_

CAPRpr

SSSS prN

wt

SS esocietyds

)1

*(

1_

PRpr

SSSS prN

w

t

SS emarketds

New products’ influence on desired state

)_,_( t

SS

t

SS

t

SS marketdssocietydsAVGds

Computational Model

Desired State

)_,_( t

SS

t

SS

t

SS marketdssocietydsfds


و شخصیت


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Discrepancy between actual and desired state

t

SS

i

SS

t

Need asdsDi

Arousal

ii

ii

Need

t

Need

Need

t

Need

DFalse

DTrueAroused

AVG_Price)*1()*1(1

Ww

NeediNeed

ie

Computational Model

Personality

Perception

Update

Agent‘s

State

Need

RecognitionAction

Estimation

S

T

A

T

E

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Mind

Belief


و شخصیت


20/7/1390

20


Select the a product which satisfies the aroused need.

},,,,,{ affnovsafstsrssk

kk

t

pr asdsE

t

prprsel Epr min arg

Computational Model

Personality

Perception

Update

Agent‘s

State

Need

RecognitionAction

Estimation

S

T

A

T

E

Culture dimensions

Wealth

Belief

Mind


Experimental Results (Individual Decision Making)

1- There are totally 4 agents where 2 of them use our model and initially hold low status product

2- There are 2 products (high social status, low social status)


Eleven European Countries. Social Status (Car Purchasing Behavior)

Experimental Results (Country-Level Results)


Experimental Results

Eleven European Countries. Social Responsibility(Car Purchasing Behavior)


و شخصیت


20/7/1390

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Engineering

Cb omid-roozmand