How Syria sank into all-out civil war

• So how did small peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad in March 2011 spiral into all-out civil war? How did it get this bad?

Locked in stalemate• He says President Assad's forces and rebel fighters are locked in a

destructive stalemate.• No-onehas been strong enough to force victory while at the same time

none of the sides to this conflict are weak enough to be defeated.• This conflict that some people predicted would last months has lasted

nearly three years.• Could the Western powers should have tried to tip the military balance

by arming opposition rebel forces?

More than 100,000 people have died since the Syrian conflict began

Slow response• In 2011 the international community was busy

watching what was going on in other states of the region that nobody from outside really took the Syrian revolution seriously.

• Assad had all the time in the world to proceed with his strategy of just clamping down on the insurgency, just trying to finish the revolution by military means from the very beginning.President Assad has portrayed the war as a

fight against Islamist extremists

Slow response

• The opposition's political leaders seemed to many observers to be hopelessly divided. Key world powers were deadlocked too along old Cold War lines.

• Islamists and jihadist fighters took advantage of the leadership divide, enabling President Assad to portray himself as the last hope for stability.

• Today, Assad is still torturing people to death. He is still committing war crimes. And still there is no action whatsoever from the international community.

• If a policy of non-intervention produces what we've seen in Syria, is that genuinely better than the consequences of intervention?

Future with Assad?

• President Assad's strategy has been consistent: do whatever is necessary to ensure regime survival. It's an approach that worked for his father, who was accused of slaughtering tens of thousands of Syrians in the 1980s while the rest of the world largely looked away.

• The present regime has been weakened, but has still managed to confound predictions of its imminent collapse, partly because it has powerful backers in Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.

Future with Assad?• President Assad relies on foreign forces to strengthen

his side, but he has managed to weaken and divide his enemies too.

• The growing strength of Islamist and jihadist fighters has also allowed President Assad to argue that any alternative to him would be worse than the status quo.

Fighting between jihadists and more moderate opposition forces have added another layer to the conflict

Future with Assad?• Former US ambassador Ryan

Crocker is among those urging the West to reconsider the unthinkable - a future Syria still controlled by President Assad. He believes the alternative is that an al-Qaeda affiliate could seize power in Damascus.

• But if Assad goes because the radical Sunni opposition pushes him out we face the prospect of a country in the hands of al-Qaeda. As bad as Assad is, I think from a Western perspective that is far worse.

Future with Assad?

• The chemical attack in Ghouta last August, far from bringing down President Assad, may have actually prolonged his rule.

• Britain and America backed away from taking military action. Instead, President Assad engaged in a process to destroy his chemical arsenal - a move which strengthened him politically.

• If some form of peace process does get under way in Switzerland, President Assad's brutal - but so far successful - survival strategy for the regime will face its biggest test yet.