Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 18, 2016

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Daily Technical Trader – KSA

Monday, 18 April 2016

Today’s coverage

Ticker Price (SAR) 1st

Target

SABIC 75.67 72.20

TASI All Share Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 6,412.37 -1.48 301.5

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 6,450 6,700 6,850

Support 6,260 6,170 6,100

TASI All Share Index Commentary

Overview:

The Index created a bearish engulfing

candlestick, which can have a negative

impact on today’s performance.

International oil prices will have its weigh

on the overall market based on the recent

correlation seen between the oil price

performance and the Saudi Tadawul

Index.

Expected Resistance Level: 6,450

Expected Support Level: 6,260

TASI (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

TASI Summary

Market Indicators 17 Apr 14 Apr %Ch.

Value (SAR bn) 5.2 5.5 -5.8

Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,466.7 1,489.9 -1.6

Volume (mn) 329.0 321.7 2.3

Transactions 116,297 122,089 -4.7

Companies Traded 168 167 0.6

Market Breadth 28:135 91:71 –

Saudi Equity Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Banking 14,734.30 -0.58 62.55

Petrochem 4,121.68 -2.15 55.40

Cement 4,366.94 -1.12 50.16

Retail 10,031.13 -0.66 56.23

Energy and Utilities 5,874.85 -2.02 57.81

Agriculture and Food 8,080.90 -2.50 57.51

Telecom 1,577.59 -1.22 51.07

Insurance 1,159.04 -3.17 53.67

Multi-Investment 2,831.11 -2.26 54.31

Industrial Invest. 5,464.88 -1.39 43.47

Building and Const. 2,029.03 -1.21 61.67

RE Development 5,891.13 -2.07 54.84

Transportation 6,879.60 -4.43 52.05

Media & Publishing 2,739.46 -1.64 44.46

Hotel and Tourism 9,301.10 -1.90 41.45

RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table

Name Close 1D% RSI

AL RAJHI BANK 57.42 1.2 73.8

RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table

Name Close 1D% RSI

TASI (30min)



SABIC

Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume

Last 75.67 -1.15 8,206,450

Resistance/Support

Levels (SAR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 76.00 78.50 80.00

Support 75.20 72.20 71.00

Commentary

Overview:

We sent a sell recommendation on the

name on the 17th

of last March. It did not

drop to the expected levels, yet. The price

remains in a downtrend channel over the

medium term and it has been in a range

squeeze over the past few weeks.

Expected Price Target: SAR72.20 –

SAR71.00

A price breach below SAR75.20 triggers

the sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

ADVANCED PETROCH 41.00 39.80 40.45 40.85 41.50 42.15 42.55 43.20 38.91 38.99 43.74

AL ALAMIYA COOP 30.25 29.42 29.80 30.03 30.42 30.80 31.03 31.42 30.25 40.13 48.88

AL RAJHI BANK 57.42 56.14 56.71 57.07 57.64 58.21 58.57 59.14 53.18 51.53 54.08

AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 34.81 33.87 34.37 34.67 35.17 35.67 35.97 36.47 36.63 48.56 64.99

ALANDALUS PROP 20.04 19.58 19.83 19.98 20.23 20.48 20.63 20.88 21.39 N/A N/A

ALINMA BANK 13.17 12.92 13.04 13.11 13.22 13.34 13.41 13.52 13.19 13.50 15.92

ALINMA TOKIO MAR 19.39 18.93 19.16 19.30 19.53 19.76 19.90 20.13 19.91 20.51 20.68

ASH-SHARQIYAH 40.37 39.79 40.10 40.28 40.59 40.90 41.08 41.39 40.42 44.23 54.50

BANK AL-JAZIRA 13.49 13.13 13.32 13.44 13.63 13.82 13.94 14.13 13.30 14.03 18.03

BUPA ARABIA 118.96 115.65 117.18 118.13 119.65 121.18 122.13 123.65 111.26 109.90 115.88

CO FOR COOP 77.25 70.75 74.47 76.78 80.50 84.22 86.53 90.25 74.77 73.78 81.37

DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.10 5.00 5.06 5.09 5.15 5.21 5.24 5.30 4.89 5.30 6.31

EMAAR ECONOMIC 13.70 13.40 13.53 13.62 13.75 13.88 13.97 14.10 13.24 12.70 12.04

ETIHAD ETISALAT 30.96 30.39 30.62 30.76 30.99 31.22 31.36 31.59 26.67 26.55 27.85

JABAL OMAR DEVEL 57.43 55.81 56.67 57.20 58.06 58.92 59.45 60.31 53.77 52.66 58.60

KNOWLEDGE ECON 13.91 13.40 13.65 13.81 14.05 14.30 14.46 14.70 12.58 13.02 16.23

MALATH INSURANCE 15.22 14.81 15.02 15.15 15.36 15.57 15.70 15.91 14.39 16.40 20.94

MEDITERRANEAN 22.20 21.50 21.82 22.03 22.35 22.67 22.88 23.20 19.48 21.14 25.64

MOBILE TELECOM 8.90 8.63 8.75 8.82 8.93 9.05 9.12 9.23 7.41 7.50 8.76

NATIONAL COMM 42.40 40.80 41.30 41.60 42.10 42.60 42.90 43.40 40.47 43.61 50.19

NATIONAL SHIPPING 42.38 40.73 41.61 42.15 43.03 43.91 44.45 45.33 38.33 40.06 40.54

RABIGH REFINING 11.05 10.52 10.80 10.98 11.27 11.55 11.73 12.02 10.13 10.73 14.28

SABB TAKAFUL 24.98 24.59 24.77 24.87 25.04 25.22 25.32 25.49 24.70 26.84 33.63

SABIC 75.67 74.39 74.96 75.32 75.89 76.46 76.82 77.39 73.84 74.81 80.64

SAPTCO 11.90 11.63 11.77 11.85 11.98 12.12 12.20 12.33 11.65 13.30 17.43

SASCO 16.82 16.44 16.63 16.75 16.94 17.13 17.25 17.44 16.11 17.71 21.50

SAUDI ARABIAN MI 28.61 28.27 28.46 28.58 28.77 28.96 29.08 29.27 30.34 31.28 32.50

SAUDI CERAMIC 41.35 40.92 41.15 41.29 41.52 41.75 41.89 42.12 38.11 41.14 52.64

SAUDI GROUND 42.05 40.42 41.30 41.84 42.72 43.60 44.14 45.02 42.58 42.83 53.49

SAUDI KAYAN PETR 5.33 5.11 5.22 5.30 5.41 5.52 5.60 5.71 5.02 5.74 7.47

SAUDI PAPER MAN 13.15 12.85 13.00 13.10 13.25 13.40 13.50 13.65 13.68 15.10 16.88

SAUDI PRINTING 20.18 19.93 20.06 20.14 20.28 20.41 20.49 20.63 20.85 21.92 19.51

SAUDI RESEARCH 39.98 39.33 39.59 39.76 40.03 40.29 40.46 40.73 41.38 45.02 31.22

SAUDI TELECOM CO 61.25 60.08 60.75 61.16 61.83 62.50 62.91 63.58 65.17 64.84 64.76

SAUDI TRANSPORT 50.80 48.10 49.44 50.26 51.60 52.94 53.76 55.10 51.97 56.55 58.94

SHAMS 35.76 35.05 35.40 35.61 35.95 36.30 36.51 36.85 36.39 36.30 37.28

THIMAR 31.53 30.78 31.16 31.39 31.78 32.16 32.39 32.78 33.45 34.44 43.47

TIHAMA 35.79 35.06 35.45 35.68 36.06 36.45 36.68 37.06 36.80 32.12 43.87 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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Economy & Finance

Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 18, 2016