Introduction to
Energy
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
Energy
Technology
Roadmaps
Cecilia Tam
18 June 2012
Overview
• Global context for energy technology
roadmaps
• About technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
• About technology roadmaps
• How-to-guide: roadmap process
• Examples of IEA roadmaps
Key technologies for reducing global CO2
emissions
6°C Scenario emissions 58 Gt ------------>
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
� 6°C Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies
� 2°C Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050 through CO2-price and strong policies
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
2°C Scenario emissions 16 Gt ------------>
Technology roadmaps provide answers
• Where is technology today?
• GW installed capacity/kWh of savings
• Leading countries/regions
• Cost, efficiency
• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?
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Energy technology roadmaps
• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?
• Use International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE
Map scenarios
• What are the priority near-term actions?
• R&D gaps and how to fill them
• Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome them
• Market requirements and policy needs
• Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs
Technology roadmaps status
2009 20112010 2012 / 2013
•Bioenergy for heat and power
•Vehicle Fuel Economy
•Solar heating and cooling
•High efficiency,
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Energy technology roadmaps
low emissions coal
•Chemical catalysis
•Hydropower
•Energy-efficient
building
envelopes
Energy technology roadmaps guide
• Guide published in 2010 by
IEA
– Understanding roadmaps
– Roadmap development
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Roadmap development
process
– Tailoring the roadmap
process
http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2291
Roadmap logic
• Goal to achieve
• Milestones to be met
• Gaps to be filled
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Energy technology roadmaps
• Gaps to be filled
• Actions to overcome
gaps and barriers
• What and when things
need to be achieved
Baseline data
Situation analysis of key factors:
• Technologies:
– Current status of costs and performance
– Technology readiness
– Market penetration and limitations
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Market penetration and limitations
• Markets:
– Suppliers, distributors and customers
– Energy characteristics (production, delivery, storage and consumption)
– Environmental impacts (air, water and land impacts)
• Public policies:
– Current status and requirements of relevant, existing laws and regulations
Planning and Preparation
• Who will set roadmap goals? Who will be
responsible for developing the roadmap?
• How much time is available to develop the
roadmap? What is the timeframe of the roadmap?
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Energy technology roadmaps
roadmap? What is the timeframe of the roadmap?
• What skills and tools will be needed?
• Are appropriate data and analytic tools available?
• Is sufficient personnel available to manage and
implement the roadmap development process?
Visioning
• What is the status of the technology today?
• What data are needed to establish baseline, set
goals, targets, forecasts?
• Are essential analytic capabilities and tools available
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Energy technology roadmaps
• Are essential analytic capabilities and tools available
to evaluate alternative scenarios?
• Technology performance and limitations?
• What supporting information and data are needed?
Roadmap Development
• Which private entities will be key to success?
• Will goals and milestones include date-based,
quantitative targets?
• What information must be included?
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Energy technology roadmaps
• What information must be included?
• What level of detail is needed for effective
implementation and action?
• Will activities be assigned to organisations for
action?
Expert judgment and consensus:
roadmap workshops
• Structured vision and technology roadmap
workshops can:
– Build consensus on goals and targets
– Evaluate and verify assumptions
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Evaluate and verify assumptions
– Identify technical and institutional barriers
– Define alternative technology
pathways
– Develop implementation
strategies and priorities
Roadmap implementation and
revision phase• Launch the roadmap
– Wide range of launch options, from simple email
announcement to formal press conferences
• Begin implementation
Start projects aimed at highest-priority actions
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Start projects aimed at highest-priority actions
• Monitor progress and adjust the roadmap
– Track activities and results; revise every 1-5 years
• Manage expectations
– Roadmap will not be implemented exactly as written
Tailoring the roadmap process
• Six considerations when designing a roadmap
process:
– Stakeholder participation
– Resource constraints
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Resource constraints
– Critical inputs
– Roadmap design
– Buy-in and dissemination
– Monitoring and tracking
Photovoltaic (PV) Roadmap
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Energy technology roadmaps7/6/2012
PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Roadmap
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Energy technology roadmaps
�Consumption
�Production
2050: A detailed regional assessment – with some HVDC lines
Solar PV roadmap example:
technology performance milestones
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Energy technology roadmaps
Lessons learned
• IEA roadmaps having a clear impact
– Informing initiatives, policies, debate
• Implementation requires further effort
– Partnering with industry organisations, Clean Energy
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Energy technology roadmaps
– Partnering with industry organisations, Clean Energy
Ministerial (CEM) initiatives, others
• National roadmaps can support implementation
• Strong interest from developing countries to use
IEA roadmap methodology
China wind roadmap
• 1 000 GW of wind,
17% of electricity production in 2050
•Cumulative investment of USD 600 billion
by 2030 and USD 1,9 tn by 2050
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Energy technology roadmaps
by 2030 and USD 1,9 tn by 2050
•CO2 savings of 1,5 Gt and reduction of 660
m tce
•Two possible pathways developed for
transmission
Cement in India Roadmap
In consultation with
India Cement Technology Roadmap partners
29
Principal supporter Industry supporters
A final thought
• Roadmaps can be powerful tools for -
– aligning interests and skills of diverse stakeholders;
– identifying steps and timing needed to achieve a
chosen future;
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Energy technology roadmaps
chosen future;
– generating buy-in and support that leads to real
action
– monitoring progress against stated milestones and
adjusting the plan as needed
For more information
• Download the guide:
http://www.iea.org/papers/roadmaps/guide.pdf
• Contact:
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
• Contact:
Cecilia Tam, IEA
phone +33 1 40 57 67 55
Energy Technology Perspectives
(ETP) 2012 South Africa - Power
Electricity generation in South Africa in 4DS and 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps