Mapping of existing RE&EE roadmaps energy efficiency

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DELIVERABLE Project Acronym: MAGHRENOV Grant Agreement number: 609453 Project Title: Convergence between EU and MAGHREB MPC innovation systems

in the field of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RE&EE) – A test-bed for fostering Euro Mediterranean Innovation Space (EMIS)

D3.1 MAPPING OF EXISTING RE&EE

ROADMAPS ADAPTED TO THE REGION

Version: 1.0

Authors: Encarna Baras Marín (KIC SE) Internal Reviewers: Antoni Martinez (KIC SE) Josep Bordonau (UPC) Abdelhak Chaibi (R&D Maroc) Hélène Ben Khemis (ANME) Dissemination Level

P Public X

C Confidential, only for members of the consortium and the Commission Services

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D3.1 Mapping of Existing RE&EE Roadmaps Adapted to the Region

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Revision History ................................................................................................................. 5 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 6 3 Introduction and global context .............................................................................................. 7 4 Global energy situation in the region ...................................................................................... 11

4.1 Tunisia. .................................................................................................................... 16 4.1.1 Tunisia. Energy Efficiency ........................................................................................... 19 4.1.2 Tunisia. Renewable Energy ......................................................................................... 22 4.2 Morocco ................................................................................................................... 27 4.2.1 Morocco. Energy Efficiency .......................................................................................... 30 4.2.2 Morocco. Renewable Energy ......................................................................................... 34 4.2.3 Morocco. R&D strategy ............................................................................................... 38 4.3 Algeria, .................................................................................................................... 41 4.3.1 Algeria. Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................ 43 4.3.2 Algeria. Renewable Energy .......................................................................................... 47 4.3.3 Algeria. Development of industrial capacity ...................................................................... 49 4.3.4 Algeria. R&D strategy ................................................................................................. 49

5 Energy AgencIes and Research centers on Energy ....................................................................... 50 5.1 Dedicated Agency for Formulating and Implementing EE Policies ............................................... 50 5.1.1 Tunisia .................................................................................................................. 50 5.1.2 Morocco ................................................................................................................. 51 5.1.3 Algeria .................................................................................................................. 52

6 Technology Roadmaps ........................................................................................................ 54 6.1 Energy efficiency priorities ............................................................................................ 54 6.2 Renewable energy ....................................................................................................... 54

7 Wind Energy Roadmaps ...................................................................................................... 56 7.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2013: Wind Energy ....................................................................... 56 7.1.1 Key findings and actions ............................................................................................. 56 7.1.2 Key actions in the next ten years ................................................................................... 57 7.1.3 LCOE ..................................................................................................................... 57 7.1.4 Potential for cost reductions ........................................................................................ 58 7.1.5 Wind technology development: actions and time frames ....................................................... 59 7.1.6 Wind power technology .............................................................................................. 60 7.1.7 Special considerations for offshore development ................................................................ 61 7.1.8 Wind characteristic assessment ..................................................................................... 63 7.1.9 Supply chains, manufacturing and installation ................................................................... 65 7.1.10 System integration: actions and time frames ................................................................... 65 7.1.11 Plan and deploy regional super grids and offshore grids ....................................................... 66 7.1.12 Reliable system operation with large shares of wind energy ................................................. 66 7.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: Wind Energy ....................................................... 68 7.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy ...................................................................... 71 7.3.1 Strategic objective .................................................................................................... 71 7.3.2 Industrial sector objective ........................................................................................... 71 7.3.3 Technology objectives ................................................................................................ 71

8 PV Roadmaps .................................................................................................................. 73 8.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2010: PV ................................................................................... 73 8.1.1 Key findings and actions ............................................................................................. 73 8.1.2 Technology performance and cost .................................................................................. 74

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8.1.3 LCOE ..................................................................................................................... 74 8.1.4 Applications and market end-use sectors ......................................................................... 75 8.1.5 Cost reduction goals .................................................................................................. 75 8.1.6 PV market deployment and competitiveness levels ............................................................. 76 8.1.7 Technology development: Strategic goals and milestones ...................................................... 77 8.1.7.1 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Crystalline silicon ............................................... 78 8.1.7.2 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Thin films ......................................................... 79 8.1.7.3 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Emerging technologies and novel concepts ................. 79 8.1.7.4 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. CPV ................................................................ 80 8.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: PV Energy .......................................................... 81 8.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: PV .................................................................................. 82 8.3.1.1 Strategic objective ................................................................................................. 82 8.3.2 Industrial sector objective ........................................................................................... 82 8.3.3 Technology objectives ................................................................................................ 82

9 CSP Roadmaps ................................................................................................................. 83 9.1 IEA Technology Roadmap: CSP 2010 .................................................................................. 83 9.1.1 Key findings and actions ............................................................................................. 86 9.1.2 LCOE ..................................................................................................................... 87 9.1.3 Technology development: Strategic goals and milestones ...................................................... 87 9.1.4 Deployment in developing economies .............................................................................. 88 9.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: CSP Energy ........................................................ 89 9.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: CSP ................................................................................ 90 9.3.1 Strategic objective .................................................................................................... 90 9.3.2 Industrial sector objective ........................................................................................... 90 9.3.3 Technology objectives ................................................................................................ 90

10 Ocean Roadmaps ............................................................................................................ 92 10.1 IEA (OES) Technology Roadmap 2012: Ocean ...................................................................... 92 10.1.1 Key findings and actions ............................................................................................ 92 10.1.2 LCOE ................................................................................................................... 93 10.1.3 Technology challenges .............................................................................................. 93 10.2 KIC Innoenergy Technology Roadmap 2013: Ocean ............................................................... 94

11 Bioenergy Roadmaps ........................................................................................................ 95 11.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2012: Bioenergy ......................................................................... 95 11.1.1 Key findings and actions ............................................................................................ 95 11.1.2 Economics today ..................................................................................................... 97 11.1.3 Electricity generation technology options and costs ........................................................... 97 11.1.4 Heat production options and costs ................................................................................ 99 11.1.5 Applications and market end-use sectors ....................................................................... 100 11.1.6 Milestones for technology improvements ....................................................................... 101 11.1.7 Bioenergy in developing countries ............................................................................... 102 11.1.8 Near-term actions for stakeholders .............................................................................. 104 11.2 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy ...................................................................... 106 11.2.1 Strategic objective ................................................................................................. 106 11.2.2 Industrial sector objective ........................................................................................ 106 11.2.3 Technology objectives ............................................................................................. 106

12 Energy Efficiency SMART CITIES Roadmaps ............................................................................. 108 12.1 KIC Innoenergy Intelligent Energy Efficient Buildings and Cities Strategy and Roadmap 2013 ............ 108 12.1.1 Market challenges and business drivers ......................................................................... 108 12.1.2 Technologies to address those challenges ...................................................................... 108 12.1.3 Roadmap: Overview ................................................................................................ 109

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12.2 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Smart Cities ................................................................... 113 12.2.1 Strategic objective ................................................................................................. 113 12.2.2 Specific objectives .................................................................................................. 113

12.2.3 Buildings: .......................................................................................................... 113 12.2.4 Energy networks .................................................................................................. 113

12.3 EeB PPP Energy Efficient Buildings Roadmap 2010 ............................................................... 114 12.3.1 Strategic objectives ................................................................................................ 115 12.3.2 Key challenges for a long term strategy ......................................................................... 115 12.4 IEA Renewable Heating & Cooling 2011 ............................................................................ 118 12.4.1 Key findings and actions ........................................................................................... 118 12.4.2 Solar resources ...................................................................................................... 119 12.4.3 Costs of solar heating and cooling (USD/MWhth) .............................................................. 120 12.4.4 Deployment of solar heating and cooling to 2050 ............................................................. 121 12.4.5 Technology development: actions and milestones. Solar heat .............................................. 125 12.4.6 Technology development: actions and milestones. Concentrating solar for heat applications ......... 125 12.4.7 Technology development: actions and milestones. Solar heat for cooling ................................ 126 12.4.8 Technology development: actions and milestones. Thermal storage ....................................... 127 12.4.9 Technology development: actions and milestones. Hybrid applications and advanced technologies . 127 12.5 RHC Platform Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for Renewable Heating & Cooling ............. 128 12.5.1 RHC Strategic objectives .......................................................................................... 129 12.5.2 Synoptic tables of research and innovation priorities by RHC technology type ........................... 133

13 Smart Grids Roadmaps ..................................................................................................... 136 13.1 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Smart GRIDS . ETP Smart Grids Roadmap 2012 ........................... 136 13.1.1 Key drivers and challenges ........................................................................................ 136 13.1.2 SmartGrids 2035 Technological Priorities ....................................................................... 138 13.1.3 The SRA 2035 Research Areas with tasks and research topics ............................................... 139 13.2 KIC Innoenergy Smart Grids Roadmap .............................................................................. 140 13.2.1.1 Market challenges and business drivers ....................................................................... 140 13.2.2 Roadmap: Smart Distribution Networks ......................................................................... 141 13.2.3 Roadmap: Smart Transmission Networks ........................................................................ 142 13.2.4 Roadmap: Storage as a Tool for Network Flexibility .......................................................... 143

14 References ................................................................................................................... 144 15 IEA and European Technology Roadmaps links ......................................................................... 145 16 KIC InnoEnergy ROADMAPS ................................................................................................ 146

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1 REVISION HISTORY

Revision Date Author Organization Description

0.1 17/02/2014 Encarna Baras KIC SE Initial draft

0.2 25/02/2014 Encarna Baras KIC SE Revision draft

0.3 27/02/2014 Encarna Baras KIC SE Integrating of revision remarks

1.0 27/02/2014 Encarna Baras KIC SE Final Version

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2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents a Mapping of Possible Regional RE&EE Roadmaps of Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria, and include informations about the energy situation and energy strategy of each country, renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies, technology roadmaps (SET Plan and KIC Innoenergy), and a preliminary analysis if the fit of the existing roadmaps in the region.

The document is divided into two separate blocks.

The first section presents information on the energy situation in the Maghreb region, in general, and also in particular, in the three countries -Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria-. It also includes the strategies for energy efficiency and renewable energy published by each country, some considerations concerning general aspects of energy development in Africa, and also about the need to develop infrastructures that enable development of these technologies.

The second block includes the technology roadmaps in renewables and energy efficiency recently published. Selected roadmaps are those that include technological development objectives in the field of the European Union, and those published by the International Energy Agency. The adaptation of these roadmaps to each country depend largely, besides the strategic commitment of each country in the development and implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency, of the energy available resources, and of the scientific basis and the specific industry structure each country.

A particularly interesting aspect for the definition of roadmaps in these countries is that it is possible to consider the development of these technologies in conjunction with the necessary infrastructure to facilitate their efficient implementation. In developed countries, the currently available infrastructure was designed to meet the demand by large generation plants away from consumption centers, and this is now an obstacle when implementing new technologies based on the concept of distributed generation. By contrast, in countries that are currently under development, these networks can be designed from the outset to include intelligence, so be smart since its conception. That is why it would be particularly necessary to address these roadmaps holistic manner, taking into account cross-cutting issues that may foster the development of these technologies.

Moreover, to fully optimize the renewable resources available in the area is necessary to establish systems of interconnection between different countries and with Europe to allow efficient exchange of energy

Finally, it’s necessary to note that the differences between African countries are enormous, both in the availability of resources, and the degree of development. It is therefore necessary to perform a separate analysis for each specific region, and within each region, each country in particular.

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3 INTRODUCTION AND GLOBAL CONTEXT

The World Energy outlook of the International energy Agency remarks that the centre of gravity of energy demand is switching decisively to the emerging economies. The links between energy and development are illustrated clearly in Africa, where, despite a wealth of resources, energy use per capita is less than one-third of the global average in 2035. Africa today is home to nearly half of the 1.3 billion people in the world without access to electricity and one-quarter of the 2.6 billion people relying on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. Globally, fossil fuels continue to meet a dominant share of global energy demand, with implications for the links between energy, the environment and climate change1.

Taking this into account, in a situation such as that presented by these countries, fast growth of energy demands, and in some cases a high external dependence to satisfy this demand, it is essential, while a good opportunity to establish a technology roadmap in time to define a balanced growth under the current situation of general context where energy efficiency measures and implementation of renewable must be predominant in all regions.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organization that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international cooperation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. This organism has publicized recently a report about he Renewable future for Africa 2. The conclusions of the report are summarized below:

• “Africa’s population is set to double by 2050 and its energy needs will grow even faster. If current growth rates are maintained

• Africa’s GDP will increase seven-fold by 2050. Providing full electricity access to all Africans will require at least a doubling of total electricity production by 2030 from current levels. The continent’s vast untapped renewable energy resources can supply the majority of this future energy demand and are suited to supply both concentrated, high-load urban centres and remote, dispersed rural areas.

• Investing in renewable energy in Africa makes good business sense. With world-class solar and hydropower resources, complemented by bioenergy, wind, geothermal and marine resources in some regions, Africa has the opportunity to leapfrog to modern renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies are now the most economical solution for off-grid and mini-grid electrification in remote areas, as well as for grid extension in some cases of centralised grid supply with good renewable resources. Notably, on average, solar photovoltaic module costs have fallen by more than 60% over the last two years to below USD 1/Watt.

• African governments are embracing renewable energy to fuel the sustainable growth of their economies. A number of recent Ministerial declarations attest to the strong political commitment and far-sighted vision of African decision-makers, which are being articulated through dedicated regional and national institutions and plans.

• Renewable resources are plentiful, demand is growing, technology costs are falling and the political will has never been stronger. The moment is right for a rapid scale-up of renewable energy in Africa.

• Governments must provide leadership to create the enabling framework for private investors in Africa’s energy sector. Streamlining and standardizing procedures is an essential element of successful public policies to promote a sound business environment.

• In the power sector, improving the governance structure, operational performance and financial viability of national utilities is an important pre-condition to deploy renewable energy at scale.

• Local entrepreneurs will be essential for African countries to have electricity access and modern cooking for all by 2030. They already help in meeting both urban and rural demand for energy products and services. Renewable energy champions should be encouraged by governments and their business models should be promoted and replicated. The potential markets are huge, for example, residential solar heat appliances and solar PV panels can improve energy services for millions of African customers. Expanding regional grid

1 IEA. World energy Outlook 2013 2 IRENA. Afircas Renewable Future. The Path to Sustainable Growth. The Road to a Renewable Future

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integration and power trade can unlock economies of scale and connect abundant and low-cost renewable energy resources to urban poles of growth. Power trade at full potential can save African countries an estimated USD 2 billion in annual costs of power system operation and development. Regional planning, harmonization of standards and procedures, equitable commercial terms and coordination at power pools level are all essential elements of successful regional integration.

• Off-grid solutions are of particular importance in Africa and deserve dedicated public policies and innovative financing mechanisms to accelerate their deployment. While they represent a small portion of total demand, they enable productive uses and increase incomes. They are crucial to reach universal access by 2030, which can improve the living conditions of millions in remote areas of Africa.

• The availability of local financing plays a decisive role in the development of local markets. Commercial banks and financial intermediaries need to be better informed about renewable energy technologies and project profiles. Public financing, either from African governments, international or regional development banks, can be leveraged to reduce financial risk perception by commercial banks.

• Ambitious regional grid integration projects such as the East and Southern Africa Clean Energy Corridor have the potential to significantly transform the African energy landscape. Such projects must be backed by strong political commitment and a sound technical rationale. Emerging examples show that public-private partnerships, enabled by sound policies and government leadership, can mobilise significant levels of financing”

However, the differences between countries are enormous, as can be seen in the maps showed below, both in the availability of resources, and the degree of development. It is therefore necessary to perform a separate analysis for each specific region, and within each region, each country in particular.

Integration and harmonization of the different national electricity markets has been placed on the agenda. Particularly progressive signs show the Maghreb states Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia1. In 2003 they signed a protocol for the stepwise integration of their power markets with the long-term objective of a common electricity market with the European Union. Already today, the three Maghreb countries are electrically interconnected with each other and are likewise synchronized with the European electricity network via an undersea interlink between Morocco and Spain. Further projects for transmediterranean interconnections, as well as ongoing construction of new interconnectors between the Maghreb countries indicates that an integrated electricity market might become a realistic scenario in the future 3.

3 EWI Working Paper, No. 10/02 The renewable energy targets of the Maghreb countries: Impact on electricity supply and conventional power markets

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4 GLOBAL ENERGY SITUATION IN THE REGION

The report has been elaborated with information provided by KIC Innoenergy, information accessible via internet from IEA, OECD, UNESCO, IRENA, IEREN, ADEREE, MASEN, CDER and from the Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency of the Arab region (RCREEE).

The RCREEE is an independent not-for-profit regional organization which aims to enable and increase the adoption of renewable energy and energy efficiency practices in the Arab region. RCREEE teams with regional governments and global organizations to initiate and lead clean energy policy dialogues, strategies, technologies and capacity development in order to increase Arab states’ share of tomorrow’s energy.

The RCREEE was formally established June 25, 2008 through the signing of the "Cairo Declaration of Intentions on Establishment of a Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE)" by representatives of its member states: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. The overall objective of RCREEE is, through its interventions, to achieve:

a) rapid implementation of cost-effective policies and instruments for the increased penetration of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) technologies and practices in member countries; and

b) increased market shares of companies and plants located in MENA-countries on the markets for technologies and services related to RE and EE in the MENA and EU regions.

In an attempt to provide comprehensive analysis of Arab states' current states and capabilities in sustainable energy, RCREEE works on various research and data analysis initiatives, like the publications of this energy Efficiency and Renewables reports of their member states.

The information included below is an extract from various reports produced by this organism. A general overview of the region, and an analysis to Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria are included. From the general overview can be seen that different countries have very different energy characteristics, and therefore technological interests may be very different from each other.

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Specific situation in Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria

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4.1 Tunisia4.

4 RCREE. Country Profile - Energy Efficiency - Tunisia 2012.

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5The total primary energy consumption in 2007 was 7.7 Mtoe, of which 14% were imported. In 2007 the two main primary energy sources were petroleum products (54.6%) and natural gas (45.1%). The net electricity demand was 14.6 TWh in 2008, an increase of about 5% compared to 13.8 TWh in 2007. Tunisia’s electricity production is heavily based on natural gas (95%) with a share of below 1% (in 2008) from renewable energy sources (mainly hydro and wind power).

The installed generation capacity (without autoproducers) in 2008 totalled 3, 313 MW of which 3, 232 MW were thermal power plants, 62 MW hydroelectric power stations and 19 MW wind farms. There are several power plants in the planning and building stage, mainly natural gas plants.

Tunisia has some domestic oil and gas reserves. In 2007 the national output of crude oil and condensates was 34.6 million barrels and of natural gas about 2.2 billion cubic meters. Compared to the previous year the share of imported energy in 2007 (in addition to the pipeline royalties) decreased by more than 90% due to a significant increase of national primary energy production (+17%). By 2030, seen from the side of natural potentials renewable energies could contribute nearly 20 Mtoe to the nation’s primary energy supply. Wind power is considered the most promising. By 2011, the national government aims to ramp up wind power capacity to 240 MW, currently (end 2009) there are 54 MW of wind turbines operating. The national renewable energy strategy of Tunisia strives for an expansion of wind power to a 10% share of the total installed electric capacity by 2030.

Energy efficiency improvements have led to a significant decline of the Tunisian energy intensity since the early nineties. On average, energy intensity was reduced by 2% per year until 2007 with energy demand successively being decoupled from economic growth.

The institutional framework for the support of renewable energies and energy efficiency in Tunisia is well developed. Renewable energy is part of the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mines. It is supported by the National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME), which plays an important role in fostering research and development as well as designing and implementing policies and strategies. In the years 2004 and 2005 some important steps were taken, e.g. the establishment of the National Energy Conservation Fund.

Population (million)1

GDP (billion US$2009)1

GDP (PPP) (billion

US$2009)1

Energy prod.

(Mtoe)3

Net energy imports incl.

royalties (Mtoe)3

T otal Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

(Mtoe) 3

Elec. demand (TWh)3

CO2 emiss.

(Mt of CO2)4

10.4 39.6 86.4

6.6 1.1 7.7 14.6

20.4

1 IMF (2009) International Monetary Fund

2 ETAP (2007). ENTREPRISE TUNISIENNE D'ACTIVITES PETROLIERES

3 STEG (2008) Société Tunisienne de l'Electricité et du Gaz

4 CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only, IEA (2009)

5 RCREEE. Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Tunisia

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4.1.1 Tunisia. Energy Efficiency

The Tunisian government estimates the country’s energy saving potential at a cummulated 80 Mtoe until 2030. In recent years, the Tunisian government has made considerable efforts to reap this potential. These efforts were stimulated by a growing energy bill which currently covers 14% of the GDP compared to 10% in 2004 and less than 7% in 2000. Escalating expenditures for energy are mainly due to a rapid growth of energy demand. In 2007 industry (36%) and transportation (31%) were the largest national energy consumers whereas the tertiary (10%) and the residential sector (16%) as well as agriculture (7%) accounted for smaller shares.

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4.1.2 Tunisia. Renewable Energy 6

Renewable energy is part of the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mines. It is supported by the National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME), which plays an important role in fostering research and development as well as designing and implementing policies and strategies.

The ANME launched in 2012, with the support of the European Union, a strategic study on the development of renewable energies. This study define an action plan for the period 2014-2020 and provide strategic guidance for 2030, in line with the strategic choices already established in the framework of the strategy mix of electric and Solar Plan Tunisia, which provide a penetration of renewables in electricity generation from 20% in 2020 and 30% in 2030.

Tunisia has an energy dependence and structural energy deficit that has increased since the early 2000s.

Deficit that currently represents approximately 20% of primary energy consumption could reach 40% -60% depending on the scenario of demand in 2030.

Energy costs in the country are around 14% of GDP, which is likely to significantly affect the competitiveness of the Tunisian economy.

The electricity mix is very in-diverse with a strong reliance on natural gas, which currently represents over 99% of the primary energy consumption of the sector.

In 2008, renewable energy contributed about 1.2% to Tunisia’s total primary energy consumption. In the power sector, the share of renewable energy was 0.6% with the net contribution equally divided between hydro and wind power. In 2008, installed capacities for power generation from wind turbines and hydro power plants cumulated to 79 MW. Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is mainly used in individual photovoltaic kits; there are a few small PV power stations providing electricity for remote rural villages. The installed capacity for solar water heating (SWH) systems totalled 320, 000 m2. The renewable energy installed in 2012 (ANME) is presented in the box below.

The solar thermal energy remains largely under exploited in comparison to other countries in the region. Indeed, the penetration rate in Tunisia in 2012 is around 54 m2/1000 (45 in 2010) inhabitants, far behind countries such as Cyprus, Israel and Jordan.

6 ANME. Plan d’action de développement des energies renouvelables en Tunisie

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The action plan establish the objectives to 2016, 2020 and 2030 for each technology

In order to improve the technical and economic integration of renewable energies in the national electricity system, the action plan recommended that the program of construction of new conventional power technologies provides enough flexibility to meet the increased demand fluctuations and strengthening the electrical grid.

Furthermore, it is proposed that the support program ANME research / development, including on systems of short-term forecasting of wind and solar resources and intelligent systems for flexible management of the park.

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2014

2014

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4.2 Morocco 7

7 RECREEE. Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Morocco

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Morocco is a net importer of energy. In 2008 it imported about 98% of its primary energy supply to satisfy a total energy consumption of 14.7 Mtoe worth approximately DH 71 billion (US$2008 9.2 billion). In 2008 Morocco’s GDP was DH 670.6 billion (US$2008 86.5 billion), i.e. the cost of energy imports amounted to 11% of the GDP. The country has virtually no conventional oil or gas reserves: in 2008 the national output of crude oil and condensates was 8.9 kt (or about 65, 200 barrels) and that of natural gas about 50 million cubic meters. In order to become more independent of energy imports Morocco is investing heavily in onshore and offshore explorations and surveys with a substantial part of the financial burden being carried by major international oil companies.

Primary energy sources are petroleum products (2008: 61%) and coal (26%). The remaining energy demand was satisfied by imported electricity (7.5%) and natural gas (3.7%), renewable energy sources covered 2.1%. The net electricity consumption was 24 TWh, an increase of about 6% compared to 22.6 TWh in 2007. Morocco’s electricity production is heavily based on fossil fuels with a share of 7% from renewable energy sources (hydro and wind power). Coal contributes more than 50% to electricity supply. The Moroccan power generation system as well as its transmission and distribution grid were originally exclusively operated by the state owned Office National de l’Electricité (ONE). Since 1999 efforts have been made to liberalize the power sector. There are now several independent power producers who provide about 60% of the total electricity demand. The installed generation capacity in 2007 totaled 5, 292 MW Morocco has significant potential for solar power generation and wind farms.

The Moroccan government has launched the initiative “EnergiPro” which encourages companies to cover their own electricity demand using renewable energy sources. Currently more than 250, 000 rural households are equipped with solar home systems, in total 70, 000 SHS were installed; the total capacity amounts to 3 MW. The country aims at providing 2, 000 MW capacity through concentrated solar power (CSP) plants by 2020 on IPP basis. Some projects are already on the way, e.g. the Ouarzazate CSP plant is intended to have a capacity of 500 MW by 2015. If Morocco’s ambitious plans were realized, the share of renewable energies of the total electricity consumption could be as high as 42% by 2020. The long-term energy strategy of the Moroccan government aims at a 12% reduction in energy use by 2020 and 15% reduction by 2030 compared to the reference scenario based on the projected energy demand without energy efficiency measures. Morocco’s short term energy efficiency priorities until 2012 are described in the Plan Nationale des Actions Prioritaires. They include both specific measures, such as the introduction of low energy lighting, as well as legal and structural reforms. There are first initiatives to introduce standards and labels. Standards for solar water heaters have been defined based on European norms. The introduction of labels will be under the responsibility of ADEREE, the agency that will shortly be created as the successor of CDER. The institutional framework in the field of renewable energies is well developed in Morocco. However, this is not yet the case for energy efficiency, which was neglected in former years. This will change with the creation of ADEREE, an agency that will be responsible for renewables as well as efficiency. With a strong agency it seems possible to realize the ambitious plans for sustainable energy system development.

Population (million)1

GDP (billion US$2009)1

GDP (PPP) (billion

US$2009)1

Energy prod.

(Mtoe)2

Net energy

imports (Mtoe)2

Net energy

imports incl. royalties (Mtoe)2

Elec. demand (TWh)2

CO2 emiss. (Mt of CO2)3

31.2 90.5 138.2 0.4 14.3 14.7 24.0 40.8 1 IMF (2009) International Monetary Fund

2 ONHYM (2008a). Office Nationale des Hydrocarbures et des Mines

3 CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only, IEA (2009)

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4.2.1 Morocco. Energy Efficiency

The demand for energy is expected to increase strongly, especially the demand for electricity. Demand for primary energy is expected to increase at 5% per annum to 2030 and within that total electricity demand will grow at 8%. The high rates of growth are attributed to the rapid economic development of the country, the modernisation of agriculture and the expansion of the tourist industry. The supply side is mainly focused on the construction and reinforcement of the electricity network with a strong emphasis on coal, but also sets ambitious targets for renewables.

The strategy sets targets for energy efficiency of a 12% reduction in energy use by 2020 and a 15% reduction by 2030. These percentages are related to the expected energy demand at those dates in the absence of the energy efficiency initiatives.

Share of Total Moroccan Energy saving potential by sector: Industry: 48%, transport: 23% residential: 19%, tertiary: 10%

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4.2.2 Morocco. Renewable Energy

Morocco enjoys important national resources in the form of wind, hydro and solar that is as yet scarcely exploited. Wind is especially attractive in the medium terms. Morocco has an excellent wind potential mainly in the North and in the South: Essaouira, Tangier & Tetouan have an annual average between 9.5 & 11 m/s at 40 meters. Tarfaya, Taza & Dakhla have an annual average between 7.5 m/s & 9.5 m/s at 40 meters.

The government estimates that the potential for development in the medium-term is 7, 300 MW. Of this resource, it is calculated that wind energy can be developed the most quickly and cheaply. According to the “Centre de développement des énergies renouvelables” (CDER) the results of a study conducted with GTZ show the wind potential is 5, 290 TWh/year (2, 645 GW) and the technical potential is 3, 264 TWh/year (1, 632 GW)

In November 2009 the government announced a ambitious programme for renewable energy, known as the Integrated Solar Energy Generation Project. Under this plan, the part of installed capacity of renewable energy in the power system will represent 42% of total installed capacity by 2020. The essence of the project is a proposal to generate electricity from installations working on the basis of concentrated solar power (CSP).

The aim of the CSP component is an installed capacity of CSP of 2, 000 MW by 2019 on 5 sites covering 10, 000 hectares. The investment will be comprised of 3x500 MW plants and single plants of 100 MW and 400 MW. 400 MW plants located; the capacity created would be equal to 38 % of the current total installed capacity in Morocco. The generation from these plants would be 4500 GWh per year, corresponding to 18% of the current annual generation. The cost, as estimated in the solar plan, would be 70 billion Moroccan dirhams ((9 billion US dollars). The schedule is demanding; the first plant is to be commissioned in 2015 and the final component by the end of 2019. It is envisaged that the programme would save approximately 1 million toe per year, with a value at present prices of about $ 500 million dollars and would save about 3.7 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions each year.

A dedicated agency is to be created for the implementation of this plan, to be known as Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy. The tasks of the agency will be to:

•Manage the overall project, including design, choice of operators, implementation.

•Coordinate and supervise all the other activities related to this programme

The solar regime in Morocco is very good with on average 3, 000 hours per year of sun and 5.5. kWh/m2/day. Support to the adoption of solar water heating has been offered through a programme PROMASOL that includes among the instruments capital subsidies. The programme was carried out in cooperation with the UNDP and was originally designed to start in 2000 with the overall aim of installing 100.000 m2 of collectors over a period of four years. At the time the total installed capacity across the country was some 50, 000 m2. It was expected that the programme would also lead to improvements in the quality of equipment, a reduction of cost, better availability and a better supporting environment. As a consequence of various delays the programme actually began in 2002; implementation was slower than expected and the programme was eventually extended to 2008; it was managed by CDER. The area of solar collectors in Morocco installed from 2002 to 2008 was about 140, 000 m2, so the overall target was attained, albeit over a longer period than initially foreseen. The figures though are still disappointing. The total installed capacity in the country is only 200, 000 m2 and the rate of installation is around 40, 000 m2. These are both low compared to other countries in the region with similar solar regimes. Bottled gas is subsidised as part of a programme to prevent deforestation by low income people using fuel-wood for cooking. It also means that gas water heating is economically attractive and competes strongly with SWH.

New targets have been set for SWH of 1.7 million m2 by 2020. To achieve this PROMOSOL II will: in-+troduce a new regime of incentives; continue to strengthen the quality of equipment and servicing; introduce a promotional exercise for public buildings and the tertiary sector; continue with sensitisation and communication; increase the supply and availability of equipment. A gas/solar hybrid plant is under construction in the East of the country; it is a 472 MW plant owned by ONE of which the solar share is 20 MW. The solar component is a pilot project essentially funded by a grant from the World Bank.

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4.2.3 Morocco. R&D strategy

The “Institut de Recherche en Energie Solaire et Energies Nouvelles”, IRESEN was created to bring the R&D in applied sciences nationally , develop innovation and encourage networking. IRESEN also responsible for ensuring the definition of research areas , to achieve, to fund and manage projects of research and development.

IRESEN is composed of seven founding members:

•ADEREE - lÁgence de Développement des Energies Renouvelables et de lÉfficacité Energétique,

•CNESTEN - le Centre National de lÉnergie, des Sciences et des_Techniques Nucléaires,

•MASEN - Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy,

•OCP - Groupe OCP,

•ONE - lÓffice Nationale de lÉlectricité,

•ONHYM - lÓffice National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines,

•SIE - la Société dÍnvestissement Energétique.

IRESEN gradually developing and expanding its field of operations and infrastructure based on demand and need for R & D but ensures a support and support university research.

To meet its growing energy needs , Morocco has set an aggressive energy strategy which aims to :

•To secure the supply of energy in various forms.

•To ensure the availability and accessibility at any time prices optimized.

•To create a national renewable energy industry and support businesses.

•And protect the environment through the use of clean technologies.

The strategy puts renewable energy among the top priorities. They must reach 42 % of the installed power by 2020 , against 26 % currently. R & D takes place at this stage to support and strengthen the national strategy.

Strategic axes IRESEN8

•Implementation of devices to develop, coordinate and enhance the efficiency of research in the areas of solar energy and new energy.

•Translation of the national strategy for R&D projects

•Achievement and participation in financing projects undertaken by research institutions and industry ,

•Valorisation and dissemination of results of research projects.

Thematics Research / Platforms and Infrastructure R&D

The IRESEN has defined the national strategy for research projects by technologies.

8 http://www.iresen.org/index-3.html

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Solar Energy:

Photovoltaic Solar Energy:

•Installation Platforms Research and Development ,

•Establishment of a laboratory photovoltaic (module and cells)

•Development of software simulation systems ,

•Technology of thin films,

•Technology concentrating photovoltaic systems ,

•Characterization of crystalline photovoltaics,

•BIPV.

CSP

•Installation platforms research and development.

•Modeling and optimization of systems,

•Technology parabolic trough ,

•Technology solar towers ,

•Technology Linear Fresnel reflectors ,

•CSP with ORC ,

•Software control and monitoring of heliostats

•Durability and maintenance of facilities in desert conditions

Solar Energy and Applications:

•Desalination of sea water by solar energy,

•Solar Air Conditioning - Steam generation from solar energy

•Electric Car / charge based solar- energy

Resources

•Development of model wind mapping resolution on the basis of evaluation of satellite images and meteorological data,

•Development of model offshore wind mapping

•Development of software for optimizing sites for solar power plants and minimizing the variability of returns ,

•Development of software for optimization of wind farm locations and minimizing the variability of returns ,

•Short-term prediction of wind generation ,

•Predicting short-term production of solar power plants.

Wind energy:

•Software modeling sites

•Optimized Architecture of wind farms,

•Simulation and optimization of pale

•Evaluation of the impact of wind integration on a large scale ,

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Energy storage :

•Station of energy transfer pumping

•Thermal Energy Storage ,

•Chemical Energy Storage.

Energetic efficiency :

•Industrial heat recovery by organic Rankine cycle

•Energy efficiency in the building.

Electrical nerwork

•Integration of ENR network ,

•Manager Electrical systems. island with strong integration of renewable energy ,

•Intelligent Networks.

Other:

•Hydroelectric ,

•Biomass

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4.3 Algeria9,10

9 RCREE. Country Profile - Energy Efficiency - Algeria 2012 10 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Program March 2011. Ministère de l’énergie et des mines. SATINFO Société du Groupe Sonelgaz. http://portail.cder.dz/IMG/pdf/Renewable_Energy_and_Energy_Efficiency_Algerian_Program_EN.pdf

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Today, Algeria’s energy needs are met almost exclusively by hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas. The other forms of energy are mobilized only when natural gas cannot be used. The long term extension of the national energy consumption pattern can affect the existing supply-demand balance for this energy source.

The level of natural gas volumes, produced of the domestic market would be 45 billions m3 in 2020 and 55 billions m3 in 2030. Other volumes of natural gas are intended for export to help finance national economy. Electricity consumption is expected to reach 75 to 80TWh in 2020 and 130 to 150TWh in 2030. The massive integration of renewable sources in the energy mix represents a major challenge for preserving fossil resources, diversifying electricity production systems and contributing to sustainable development.

Algeria has created a green momentum by launching an ambitious program to develop renewable energies (REn) and promote energy efficiency. This program leans on a strategy focussed on developing and expanding the use of inexhaustible resources, such as solar energy in order to diversify energy sources and prepares Algeria of tomorrow. Through combining initiatives and the acquisition of knowledge, Algeria is engaged in a new age of sustainable energy use.

Algeria’s reform objectives of bringing its market closer in line with international standards are built around an electricity law enacted in 2002. As a direct consequence of the law, the state electricity and gas monopolist Sonelgaz was forced to unbundle its activities, and an independent regulatory body was established. In the years following Algeria’s electricity reform, several projects of independent power producers (IPP) – some even with international equity participation – emerged in the country. Algeria’s renewable electricity goals.

All these considerations justify the strong integration, right today, of renewable energies in the strategy of long-term energy offer, while granting an important role to energy savings and to energy efficiency.

4.3.1 Algeria. Energy Efficiency

The energy efficiency program is governed by Algeria’s commitment to promote a more responsible use of energy and to investigate all the ways to protect the resources and systematize (explore all possible avenues for conserving resources and systematizing) efficient and optimal consumption.

Energy efficiency aims to produce the same goods and services by using least possible energy (the less possible energy). The program provides for measures that favour forms of energy most suitable for different uses and require behavioural change and improved equipment.

The energy efficiency program consists mainly in the achievement of the following:

•Improving heat insulation of buildings.

•Developing solar water heating.

•Spreading the use of low energy consumption lamps.

•Substituting all mercury lamps by sodium lamps.

•Promoting LPG and NG fuels.

•Promoting co-generation.

•Conversing simple cycle power plants to combined cycle power plants, wherever possible.

•Developing solar cooling systems.

•Desalinating brackish water using renewable energy.

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4.3.2 Algeria. Renewable Energy

Algeria’s renewable electricity goals are set out as percentage values of overall power generation. As a short-term goal, for 2017, the Algerian electricity regulatory commission (CREG 2008) published a 5 percent renewable electricity target. In the long run, by 2030, Algeria expects to reach 20 percent overall renewable coverage, of which 70 percent is generated by CSP, 20 percent by wind and 10 percent by PV (CIF 2009)11.

The program to develop renewable energies consists of installing up to 22 000 MW of power generating capacity from renewable sources between 2011 and 2030, of which 12 000 MW will be intended to meet the domestic electricity demand and 10000 MW destined for export. This last option depends on the availability of a demand that is ensured on the long term by reliable partners as well as on attractive external funding.

In this program, renewable energies are at the heart of Algeria’s energy and economic policies : It is expected that about 40% of electricity produced for domestic consumption will be from renewable energy sources by 2030. Algeria is indeed aiming to be a major actor in the production of electricity from solar photovoltaic and solar power, which will be drivers of sustainable economic development to promote a new model of growth.

The national potential for renewable energy is strongly dominated by solar energy. Algeria considers this source of energy as an opportunity and a lever for economic and social development, particularly through the establishment of wealth and job-creating industries. The potential for wind, biomass, geothermal and hydropower energies is comparatively very small. This does not, however, preclude the launch of several wind farm development projects and the implementation of experimental projects in biomass and geothermal energy.

The renewable energy and energy efficiency program is organized in five chapters :

•Capacities to install by field of energy activity.

•Energy efficiency program.

•Industrial capacities to build in order to back up the program.

•Research and development.

•Incentives and regulatory measures.

The program provides for the development by 2020 of about sixty solar photovoltaic and concentrating solar power plants, wind farms as well as hybrid power plants.

These program is a part of Algeria’s strategy, which is aimed at developing a genuine solar industry along with a training and capitalization program that will ultimately enable the use of local engineering and establish efficient know-how, including in the fields of engineering and project management. The renewable energy program to meet domestic needs in electricity will generate several thousand of direct and indirect jobs.

Today, Algeria’s energy needs are met almost exclusively by hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas. The other forms of energy are mobilized only when natural gas cannot be used. The long term extension of the national energy consumption pattern can affect the existing supply-demand balance for this energy source.

The renewable energy development program has a national character affecting the majority of sectors. Its implementation, under the aegis of the Ministry of Energy and Mines, is opened to both public and private operators.

The government’s willingness to promote renewable energies is also reflected in the establishment of a Commission for renewable energy, responsible to coordinate the national effort in this area.

11 EWI Working Paper, No. 10/02 The renewable energy targets of the Maghreb countries: Impact on electricity supply and conventional power markets

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4.3.3 Algeria. Development of industrial capacity

In order to follow up and ensure the success of the renewable energy program, Algeria plans to strengthen the industrial fabric to take a lead in the positive changes in the industrial and technological plans as well as in terms of engineering and research. Algeria is also determined to invest in all creative segments of industry and develop them locally.

For PV, industrial integration in Algeria is expected to reach 60% over the period 2011-2013. This ambitious target will be achieved through the construction by “Rouiba-Eclairage”, a subsidiary of the Sonelgaz Group, of a photovoltaic module manufacturing plant with a capacity equivalent to 120 MWp/per year, whose start up is scheduled for late 2013.The period will also be marked by the implementation of measures to strengthen engineering and business development support to the photovoltaic industry through a joint venture that will bring together various stakeholders (Rouiba- Eclairage, Sonelgaz, CREDEG, CDER and UDTS) in partnership with research centers.

The objective of the Algerian industry for the 2014-2020 period is to achieve a capacity integration level of 80%. To do this, it is expected the construction of a plant for the manufacture of Silicon.

For solar thermal energy the industrial integration rate is expected to reach 50% over the 2014-2020 period through the implementation of three major projects in parallel with actions for engineering capacity building, and over the 2021-2030 period, the rate of integration should exceed 80%

In wind energy the objective for the 2014-2020 period is to attain an integration rate of 50%. The rate of industrial integration is to exceed 80% over the 2021-2030 period with the expansion of wind tower and turbine rotors production capacity and the development of a national subcontracting network for manufacturing the nacelle equipment. There are also plans to design and build wind farms, power plants and brackish water desalination plants using Algeria’s own resources.

4.3.4 Algeria. R&D strategy

Algeria fosters research to make of the renewable energy program a catalyst for developing a national industry. In addition to the research centers affiliated to companies like Electricity and Gas

Research and Development Center (CREDEG), which is a subsidiary of Sonelgaz, the energy and mining sector has an Agency for the Promotion and Rational Use of Energy (APRUE) and a company specialized in the development of REn (NEAL). These bodies which cooperate with the research centers attached to the Ministry of Scientific Research include CDER and UDTS.

CDER or Center for Renewable Energy Development is responsible for developing and implementing programs of scientific and technological research and development of systems using solar, wind, geothermal and biomass energies.

UDTS or Silicon Technology Development Unit conducts scientific research, technological innovation and advanced and post-graduation training activities in the sciences and technologies of semiconductor materials and processes applied to several areas including photovoltaics, detection, optoelectronics, photonics and energy storage. UDTS actively contributes, in collaboration with several Algerian universities to developing knowledge and technological know-how and processes as well as products necessary to economic and societal growth.

The Algerian government has also established an institute for renewable energy and energy

efficiency (IAER) which will play a key role in training efforts deployed by the country and ensures quality development of renewable energies in Algeria. The training provided by the Institute cover areas including engineering, safety and security, energy auditing and project management.

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5 ENERGY AGENCIES AND RESEARCH CENTERS ON ENERGY12

The same way as is essential to know the existing resources and policies promoted by governments, it is also important to know the existence of agencies or organizations in these countries that are engaged in promoting such policies, as well as research centers or industries in this sector that may be interested in the development of technology projects in this field.

The Arab Future Energy IndexTM (AFEX) Energy Efficiency is a policy assessment and benchmark tool that aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of energy efficiency (EE) and quality of EE governance in the Arab region.

AFEX Energy Efficiency has been developed to:

•Provide systematic comprehensive assessment of EE progress in RCREEE member states.

•Benchmark countries’ performance in order to provide additional stimulus to strive towards EE.

•Effectively communicate the assessment results.

•Identify areas for possible intervention at the regional level to support EE efforts.

AFEX Energy Efficiency assesses four major areas:

•The current structure of energy pricing.

•States’ efforts and level of commitment in overcoming market, social and political barriers to EE through strategies, policies and specific action plans.

•Institutional capacity to design, implement and evaluate EE policies.

•Efficiency of utility sector, including power generation efficiency, and efficiency in power transmission and distribution networks.

AFEX Energy Efficiency is constructed in accordance with the OECD methodology for constructing composite indicators (OECD, 2008). The conceptual framework of AFEX Energy Efficiency consists of four evaluation categories relating to the index’s objectives: (1) Energy Pricing; (2) Policy Framework; (3) Institutional Capacity; and (4) Utility. The Institutional Capacity category assesses the capacity of states to formulate and successfully implement EE policies. Strong institutional capacity is critical to ensuring the effectiveness of EE policies and programs. It consists of three factors: (1) EE agency; (2) implementation capacity; and (3) monitoring and evaluation.

5.1 Dedicated Agency for Formulating and Implementing EE Policies

A designated EE agency constitutes “the heart of any system of energy efficiency governance”, the structure and design of which ought to be carefully considered (IEA, 2010). An EE agency should be a dedicated body with a strong capability to design, formulate, implement, and evaluate EE policies and programs. It should also be capable to coordinate activities among various stakeholders and government institutions to ensure more efficient use of existing human, capital and technical resources in achieving EE objectives (World Energy Council, 2008). This factor has been assessed by an expert survey based on three criteria: (1) the actual existence of a dedicated body responsible for developing and implementing EE policies and programs; (2) human, financial and technical capacity of the agency; and (3) the output of the agency in terms of policy formulation and implementation.

5.1.1 Tunisia

National Agency for Energy Management (ANME)

Brief Description:

ANME was established in 1986, with current staff of around 135 people. Main activities of ANME include various initiatives in all economy sectors:

•Participate in the creation and implementation of national EE programs with the following main actions: compulsory and periodic energy audits, prior consultation for projects that consume a significant amount of

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energy, co-generation, labeling of equipment and apparatus, thermal regulation for buildings, rational energy use in public lighting, diagnostics of automotive engines, mobility plans for large cities, RE promotion and energy substitution.

•Propose legislation and conduct studies such as a strategic study on EE in 2005; information system on the rationalization of the use of energy and environment in 2006; the study of co-generation development and tri-generation in Tunisia; the study of EE development in agriculture and fishing sectors; study on the energy and thermal retrofitting of existing buildings; the study of RE generation by 2030 and the inventory of GHG emissions due to energy and industrial processes.

•Managing the national fund for the rationalization of energy use, aiming at incentivizing EE. Technical demonstration and support of R&D through the Federated Research Projects (Projets de Recherche Fédérés - PRF) namely the PRF solar heating, PRF solar desalination techniques mastering, PRF solar cooling and PRF solar drying for agricultural products.

Supporting Energy Research Institution:

•Mechanical and Electrical Industries Technical Center (CETIME) Technical Centre for Wood Industry and Furniture (CETIBA) Technical Centre for Building Materials, Ceramics and Glass (CTMCCV) - Construction Testing and Techniques Center (CETEC).

5.1.2 Morocco

National Agency for the Development of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ADEREE)

Brief Description:

•ADEREE was established in 1982, with current staff of around 131 people. Main activities include:

•Developing a program to improve EE in the building sector. The program benefits from EUR 10 million of financial support from the EU Commission to demonstrate EE measures. ADEREE completed the first stage of the program on the development of technical specifications for thermal regulations for buildings, estimating potential socio-economic, environmental and energy impact of thermal regulations. Currently, nine demonstration projects are currently under construction in six climatic zones in Morocco.

•Implementing a program to encourage EE in the industrial sector (PPEI), which includes various EE measures targeting 360 companies.

•Preparing minimum energy performance standards with appropriate labeling schemes for refrigerators and air conditioners

•International cooperation, particularly with the AACID (Agence Andalouse de Coopération Internationale au Développement) and the Junta de Andualucia (Spain) on the implementation of two projects related to electrification of rural schools with PV, replacing inefficient light bulbs, installation of solar water heaters in public buildings, hospitals and schools.

The “Institut de Recherche en Energie Solaire et Energies Nouvelles”, IRESEN

Brief Description:

IRESEN was created to bring the R&D in applied sciences nationally , develop innovation and encourage networking. IRESEN also responsible for ensuring the definition of research areas , to achieve, to fund and manage projects of research and development.

IRESEN gradually developing and expanding its field of operations and infrastructure based on demand and need for R & D but ensures a support and support university research.

To meet its growing energy needs , Morocco has set an aggressive energy strategy which aims to :

•To secure the supply of energy in various forms.

•To ensure the availability and accessibility at any time prices optimized.

•To create a national renewable energy industry and support businesses.

•And protect the environment through the use of clean technologies.

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The “Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy”, MASEN13

Brief Description:

Founded in March 2010, the company aims at implementing a program for the development of integrated electricity production projects from solar energy with a minimum total capacity of 2000 MW.

Objectives:

Implementation of the program of integrated projects for generating electricity from solar energy comprising:

•Solar power generation plants;

•Achievements and related activities contributing to the development of settlement areas and countries

Mission:

•The design of integrated solar development projects in the areas of Morocco which are capable of hosting the plants for the production of electricity from solar energy.

•Conducting the technical, economic and financial studies which are necessary to the qualification of the sites, the design the realization and the exploitation of the solar projects.

•The contribution to research and to the raising of the funding necessary to the realization and to the exploitation of the solar projects.

•Proposing to the Moroccan administration modes of industrial integration for each solar project.

•The project management for the realization of the solar projects.

•The realization of the infrastructures allowing the connection of the said power plants to the electricity transportation grid, as well as the infrastructures allowing to supply them with water , subject to the powers granted in connection therewith by the legislation in force to any other public or private law entity.

•The promotion of the program with national foreign investors.

•The contribution to the development of applied research and to the promotion of the technological innovations tin the solar subsectors of electricity production.

•The contribution to the creation of specialized training curricula in the field of solar energy in partnership with the schools of engineers, the universities and the vocational training centers.

•By the same token, the company is empowered, in general, to conduct all industrial, commercial, real estate, stock exchange and financial operations necessary or useful to the realization of its corporate purpose.


National Center for Scientific and Technical Research (CNRST).

5.1.3 Algeria

National Agency for the Promotion and Rationalization of Use of Energy (APRUE)

Brief Description:

APRUE was established in 1985, with current staff of around 50 people. Main activities of APRUE include:

•Implementation of program Eco-Lumiere: distribution of one million energy efficient light bulbs (CFLs). Implementation and follow-up on National Program on the Rationalization of Use of Energy (PNME) for 2011-2013, which includes activities on thermal insulation of buildings, development of solar heating, widespread use of energy efficient light bulbs, introduction of EE in public lighting, introduction of EE in the industrial facilities, increased use of LPG and pilot projects on solar cooling.

•Funding EE projects through the FNME (Fond National pour la Maîtrise de l’Energie) mainly through giving credits, soft loans and loan guarantees.

13 MASEN. http://www.masen.org.ma

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•Algerian Institute for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (IAEREE).

•Center of Research and Development on Electricity and Gas (CREDEG)

•“Société spécialisée dans le développement des énergies nouvelles et renouvelables” (NEAL).

•“Centre de développement des énergies renouvelables “ (CDER).

•“Unité de développement de la technologie du silicium” (UDT).

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6 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS

6.1 Energy efficiency priorities14

Households, SMEs and the building sector should be the priority targets of an effective energy-efficiency and DSM policy. They represent a major share of energy consumption and they have substantial potential for energy efficiency gains at low cost. In particular, the introduction of eco-labelling and technical, mandatory, standard regulations on consumption for equipment and appliances concerning cooling, heating, lighting and industrial machinery have proven to be the most effective and durable at low (or even negative) costs. Supporting the purchase/installation of proven, small equipment based on renewable energy sources (solar water heaters and PV) by these sectors should also be at the top of the agenda.

6.2 Renewable energy

Renewable energy projects, due to their intermittency (now well forecasted days ahead), require the reinforcement of grids (especially with the use of software for grid management and weather forecasts) to enable their integration into larger, interconnected electricity networks and markets, therefore further fostering the integration of the SEMCs (southern and eastern Mediterranean countries). Part of the renewable electricity could also be exported to Europe via HVDC (high voltage direct current) electricity interconnections. Renewable energy projects could develop significant new industry and service sectors (e.g. installers), leading to local job creation and manufacturing developments. By sharing manufacturing facilities and therefore exploiting larger economies of scale, south– south cooperation could be promoted. This is particularly important in a region that presently has a low level of intra-regional trade. The economic and industrial development consequent to the large-scale implementation of renewable energy projects in the SEMCs could have several positive spillovers for the EU, such as preventing migratory flows, creating new markets and securing the existing energy infrastructure in the Mediterranean. Renewable energy and energy-efficiency projects in the SEMCs could become a stimulus for enhanced Euro-Mediterranean cooperation in socio-economic areas, similar to the case of the European Coal and Steel Community, which sparked Europe’s post-World War II integration. It is important to avoid focusing solely on large- scale renewable energy projects, but also to firmly develop decentralised systems, such as solar water heaters and rural PV systems. These systems are cost-efficient, but nevertheless need to be promoted. Best practices already exist in some SEMCs, such as Israel, the Palestinian territories, Tunisia and Morocco. Towards a new structure of regional and interconnected markets The core challenge to the production and trade of renewable energy in the SEMCs is that the development of the electricity supply system is limited by the lack of a regional market, largely due to energy price gaps and subsidies. The rigidities that this imposes mean that existing infrastructure is not used optimally, investment in new infrastructure is distorted and probably hindered, and the development of renewable energy is delayed.

14MEDPRO – Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region

MEDPRO – Mediterranean Prospects – is a consortium of 17 highly reputed institutions from throughout the Mediterranean funded under the EU’s 7th Framework Programme and coordinated by the Centre for European Policy Studies based in Brussels. At its core, MEDPRO explores the key challenges facing the countries in the Southern Mediterranean region in the coming decades. Towards this end, MEDPRO will undertake a prospective analysis, building on scenarios for regional integration and cooperation with the EU up to 2030 and on various impact assessments. A multidisciplinary approach is taken to the research, which is organised into seven fields of study: geopolitics and governance; demography, health and ageing; management of environment and natural resources; energy and climate change mitigation; economic integration, trade, investment and sectoral analyses; financial services and capital markets; human capital, social protection, inequality and migration. By carrying out this work, MEDPRO aims to deliver a sound scientific underpinning for future policy decisions at both domestic and EU levels.

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For renewable energy to contribute most effectively to the development of the SEMCs, it must be embedded in a functioning, regional electricity market that permits the exchange of power in substantial volumes, has no barriers to trade and is friendly to private investment. The exchange of energy is to the benefit of both buyer and seller: it enables both parties to balance portfolios of generating assets, it can alleviate some of the disadvantages of non-dispatchable and intermittent supplies, and it can permit joint ventures to share risks. Such a market does not yet exist across the SEMCs. There is neither the infrastructure nor the regulatory and legislative framework that would be necessary for a regional market to function correctly. Indeed, electricity interconnection remains a key issue for energy cooperation in the region. It is of crucial importance to reinforce the national transmission lines in the SEMCs, which are often weak, as well as interconnections between these countries. Since the late 1990s, the two shores of the Mediterranean have been connected through a line across the Strait of Gibraltar; however, the electricity interconnection between the two shores needs to be further reinforced. Moreover, non- technical (commercial) distribution losses remain at very high levels (up to 40% in Lebanon and 20% in Algeria) at the expense of paying customers and distributors. In this sector, an increasing role will be played by the Mediterranean transmission system operators (Med-TSO).

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7 WIND ENERGY ROADMAPS

7.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2013: Wind Energy15

Additionally to its role within the portfolio of energy technologies to mitigate energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, wind power provides additional benefits such as pollution reduction, enhanced security of energy supply and economic growth. The objective of the Wind Roadmap is to identify actions to encourage the rapid, enhanced research, design, development and deployment on wind power, both on land and offshore.

The roadmap has been compiled with inputs from a wide range of stakeholders in the wind industry and the wider power sector, power system operators, research and development (R&D) institutions, finance, and government institutions. Two workshops were held to identify technological and deployment issues.

7.1.1 Key findings and actions

Since 2008, wind power deployment has more than doubled, approaching 300 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative installed capacities, led by China (75 GW), the United States (60 GW) and Germany (31 GW). Wind power now provides 2.5% of global electricity demand – and up to 30% in Denmark, 20% in Portugal and 18% in Spain. Policy support has been instrumental in stimulating this tremendous growth.

Progress over the past five years has boosted energy yields (especially in low-wind-resource sites) and reduced operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Land-based wind power generation costs range from USD 60 per megawatt hour (USD/MWh) to USD 130/MWh at most sites. It can already be competitive where wind resources are strong and financing conditions are favourable, but still requires support in most countries. Offshore wind technology costs levelled off after a decade-long increase, but are still higher than land-based costs.

This roadmap targets 15% to 18% share of global electricity from wind power by 2050, a notable increase from the 12% aimed for in 2009. The new target of 2 300 GW to 2 800 GW of installed wind capacity will avoid emissions of up to 4.8 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year.

Achieving these targets requires rapid scaling up of the current annual installed wind power capacity (including repowering), from 45 GW in 2012 to 65 GW by 2020, to 90 GW by 2030 and to 104 GW by 2050. The annual investment needed would be USD 146 billion to USD 170 billion.

The geographical pattern of deployment is rapidly changing. While countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) led early wind development, from 2010 non-OECD countries installed more wind turbines. After 2030, non- OECD countries will have more than 50% of global installed capacity.

While there are no fundamental barriers to achieving – or exceeding – these goals, several obstacles could delay progress including costs, grid integration issues and permitting difficulties.

This roadmap assumes the cost of energy from wind will decrease by as much as 25% for land- based and 45% for offshore by 2050 on the back of strong research and development (R&D) to improve design, materials, manufacturing technology and reliability, to optimise performance and to reduce uncertainties for plant output. To date, wind power has received only 2% of public energy R&D funding: greater investment is needed to achieve wind’s full potential.

As long as markets do not reflect climate change and other environmental externalities, accompanying the cost of wind energy to competitive levels will need transitional policy support mechanisms.

To achieve high penetrations of variable wind power without diminishing system reliability, improvements are needed in grid infrastructure and in the flexibility of power systems as well as in the design of electricity markets.

To engage public support for wind, improved techniques are required to assess, minimise and mitigate social and environmental impacts and risks. Also, more vigorous communication is needed on the value of wind energy and the role of transmission in meeting climate targets and in protecting water, air and soil quality.

15 EA Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy 2013

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7.1.2 Key actions in the next ten years

Set long-term targets, supported by predictable mechanisms to drive investment and to apply appropriate carbon pricing.

Address non-economic barriers. Advance planning of new plants by including wind power in long-term land and maritime spatial planning; develop streamlined procedures for permitting; address issues of land-use and sea-use constraints posed by various authorities (environment, building, traffic, defence and navigation).

Strengthen research, development and demonstration (RD&D) efforts and financing. Increase current public funding by two- to five- fold to drive cost reductions of turbines and support structures, to increase performance and reliability (especially in offshore and other new market areas) and to scale up turbine technology for offshore.

Adapt wind power plant design to specific local conditions (e.g. cold climates and low-wind sites), penetration rates, grid connection costs and the effects of variability on the entire system.

Many countries, particularly in emerging regions, are only just beginning to develop wind energy. Accordingly, milestone dates should be considered as indicative of urgency, rather than as absolutes. Individual countries will have to choose what to prioritise in the rather comprehensive action lists, based on their mix of energy and industrial policies.

Improve processes for planning and permitting transmission across large regions; modernise grid operating procedures (e.g. balancing area co-ordination and fast-interval dispatch and scheduling); increase power system flexibility using ancillary services from all (also wind) generation and demand response; and expand and improve electricity markets, and adapt their operation for variable generation.

Increase public acceptance by raising awareness of the benefits of wind power (including emission reductions, security of supply and economic growth), and of the accompanying need for additional transmission.

Enhance international collaboration in R&D and standardisation, large-scale testing harmonisation, and improving wind integration. Exchange best practices to help overcome deployment barriers.

7.1.3 LCOE

The LCOE of wind energy can vary significantly according to the quality of the wind resource, the investment cost, O&M requirements, the cost of capital, and also the technology improvements leading to higher capacity factors.

Turbines recently made available with higher hub heights and larger rotor diameters offer increased energy capture. This counterbalances the decade- long increase in investment costs, as the LCOE of recent turbines is similar to that of projects installed in 2002/03. For some sites, LCOEs of less than USD 50/MWh have been announced; this is true of the recent Brazil auctions and some private-public agreements signed in the United States. Technology options available today for low-wind speed – tall, long-bladed turbines with greater swept area per MW – reduce the range of LCOE across wind speeds. More favourable terms for turbine purchasers, such as faster delivery, less need for large frame agreement orders, longer initial O&M contract durations, improved warranty terms and more stringent performance guarantees, have also helped reduce costs (Wiser and Bolinger, 2013).

Higher wind speeds off shore mean that plants can produce up to 50% more energy than land-based ones, partly offsetting the higher investment costs. However, being in the range of USD 136/MWh to USD 218/MWh, the LCOE seen in offshore projects constructed in 2010-12 is still high compared to land-based (JRC, 2012; Crown Estate, 2012b). This reflects the trend of siting plants farther from the shore and in deeper waters, which increases the foundation, grid connection and installation costs. Costs of financing have also been higher for larger deals at new sites, as investors perceive higher risk.

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7.1.4 Potential for cost reductions

The main metric for improvements of technology is the cost for produced energy, for a certain site holding constant the quality of wind resource. This will take into account both the improvements in extraction of energy as well as in the design for producing the equipment with cost efficient material use.

The European Wind Initiative (EWI) targets competitive land-based wind by 2020 and offshore by 2030, as well as reducing the average cost of wind energy by 20% by 2020 (in comparison to 2009 levels). The cost competitiveness will depend on costs of other technologies as well, and assumes that externalities of fossil fuels are incorporated.

A compilation of trends from various publications is summarised in Wind IA Task 26 (2012) where most LCOE estimates anticipate 20% to 30% reduction by 2030.

Technology innovation, which will continue to improve energy capture, reduce the cost of components, lower O&M needs and extend turbine lifespan, remains a crucial driver for reducing LCOE (see Wind power technology). Larger markets will improve economies of scale, and manufacturing automation with stronger supply chains can yield further cost reductions.

Given its earlier state of development, offshore wind energy is likely to see faster reductions in cost. Foundations and grid connection comprise a larger share of total investment cost, with foundations having substantial cost-reduction potential. Greater reliability, availability and reduced O&M cost are particularly important for offshore development as access can be difficult and expensive.

The 2DS assumes a learning rate3 for wind energy of 7% on land and 9% off shore up to 2050, leading to an overall cost reduction of 25% by 2050. Offshore investment costs are assumed to fall by 37% by 2030, and by 45% in 2050 (Figure 15). The analyses assume a 20% reduction of onshore O&M costs by 2030, rising to 23% by 2050. Larger reductions are anticipated for offshore O&M costs, of 35% in 2030 and 43% in 2050.

The cost of generating energy is expected to decrease by 26% on land and 52% off shore by 2050, assuming capacity factor increases from 26% to 31% on land and 36% to 42% off shore. All figures anticipate that improved wind turbine technology and better resource knowledge will more than offset the possible saturation of excellent sites.

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2DS: 2°C Scenario

7.1.5 Wind technology development: actions and time frames

Increased efforts in wind technology R&D are essential to realising the vision of this roadmap, with a main focus on reducing the investment costs and increasing performance and reliability to reach a lower LCOE. Good resource and performance assessments are also important to reduce financing costs.

Wind energy technology is already proven and making progress. No single element of onshore turbine design is likely to reduce dramatically the cost of energy in the years ahead. Design and reliability can be improved in many areas, however; when taken together, these factors will reduce both cost of energy and the uncertainties that stifle investment decisions. Greater potential for cost reductions, or even technology breakthrough, exists in the offshore sector.

Actions related to technology development fall into three main categories:

•Wind power technology: turbine technology and design with corresponding development of system design and tools, advanced components, O&M, reliability and testing;

•Wind characteristics: assessment of wind energy resource with resource estimates for siting, wind and external conditions for the turbine technology, and short-term forecasting methods;

•Supply chains, manufacturing and installation issues.

In light of continually evolving technology, continued efforts in standards and certification procedures will be crucial to ensure the high reliability and successful deployment of new wind power technologies. Mitigating environmental impacts is also important to pursue.

This roadmap draws from the Wind IA Long-term R&D Needs report, which examines most technology development areas in more detail (Wind IA, forthcoming).

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7.1.6 Wind power technology

Cost reduction is the main driver for technology development but others include grid compatibility, acoustic emissions, visual appearance and suitability for site conditions (EWI, 2013). Reducing the cost of components, as well as achieving better performance and reliability (thereby optimising O&M), all result in reducing the cost of energy.

System design Time frames

1. Wind turbines for diverse operating conditions: specific designs for cold and icy climates, tropical cyclones and low-wind conditions.

Ongoing. Commercial-scale prototypes by 2015.

2. Systems engineering: to provide an integrated approach to optimising the design of wind plants from both performance and cost optimisation perspectives.

Ongoing. Complete by 2020.

3. Wind turbine and component design: improve models and tools to include more details and improve accuracy.


5. Floating offshore wind plants: numerical design tools and novel designs for deep offshore. Ongoing. Complete by 2025.

4. Wind turbine scaling: 10 MW to 20 MW range turbine design to push for improved component design and references for offshore conditions. Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.

Advanced components Time frames

6. Advanced rotors: smart materials and stronger, lighter materials to enable larger rotors; improved aerodynamic models, novel rotor architectures and active blade elements


8. Support structures: new tower materials, new foundations for deep waters and floating structures. Ongoing. Complete by 2025.

7. Drive-train and power electronics: advanced generator designs; alternative materials for rare earth magnets and power electronics; improved grid support through power electronics; reliability improvements of gearboxes.


9. Wind turbine and wind farm controls: to reduce loads

and aerodynamic losses. Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.

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O&M reliability and testing Time frames

10. Operational data management: develop standardised and automated wind plant data management processes; build shared database of offshore operating experiences.


11. Diagnostic methods and preventive maintenance: develop condition monitoring, predictive maintenance tools and maintenance practices, especially off shore.


12. Testing facilities and methods: develop advanced testing methods and build facilities to test large components. Ongoing. Complete by 2020.

13. Increase technical availability: target for offshore turbines to current best- in-class of 95%; minimum O&M requirement for remote locations.

Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.

All these improvements could drive about 20% cost reduction of the lcoe of land-based wind power by 2020.

7.1.7 Special considerations for offshore development

Offshore challenges: the design of offshore turbines for distant offshore installations will continue to deviate from that of land-based turbines, with less focus on issues such as flicker, sound and aesthetics. Continued turbine scaling will remain critical for offshore technology, as it has already resulted in lower balance of plant and operations costs while simultaneously increasing energy capture.

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The interaction of the marine atmosphere and sea waves, which places different loads on various parts of the wind turbine and its foundation, requires continued attention. As long as the real requirements of wind technology in offshore conditions remain insufficiently understood, conservative design practices – adopted from other offshore industries – are likely to be used for turbine design (Wiser and Bolinger, 2012).

Offshore turbines could adopt a design other than the mainstream three-blade concept, e.g. two blades rotating downwind of the tower. Improved alternative-current (AC) power take-off systems or the introduction of direct-current (DC) power systems are also promising technologies for internal wind power plant grid offshore and connection to shore. Changes in design architecture and an ability to withstand a wider array of design considerations including hurricanes, surface icing, and rolling and pitching moments, are also likely to be needed.

In total, the US DOE expects a 40% reduction in the cost of electricity generated by offshore wind by 2030; the UK Crown Estate foresees similar reductions for wind projects to be decided as early as 2020 (2013b; Crown Estate, 2012b). The Crown Estate expects cost reductions from areas such as competition and installation, with the largest savings (17%) from turbine changes (Figure 16 and Box 4). Of this, increase in rated power accounts for nine percentage points, as it reduces capital costs by as much as 4% to 5%, operating costs by 10% to 15%, and increases annual energy production by up to 5%.

The monopile’s relative simplicity and low labour requirements make it an attractive platform, but the combination of diverse seabed conditions, deeper water and larger turbines will push the development for innovative alternatives such as jackets, tripods, gravity-based structures and suction caissons (Figure 17). Composite towers and foundations might offer greater corrosion protection, while integrated concrete and steel hybrid structures or entirely concrete structures might also deliver benefits (Navigant, 2013b).

Clearly, a sizable offshore wind resource can be developed with the fixed-bottom foundation technologies. Floating offshore foundations, by contrast, offer the potential for less foundation material, simplified installation and decommissioning, and additional wind resource at water depths exceeding 50 m to 60 m. Two recent first demonstrations show good performance: Hywind, a 2.3 MW prototype operating off the Norwegian coast since 2009; and US/PT, a 2 MW prototype off the Portuguese coast since 2011. Five floating turbines in Portugal received EU funding to be constructed by 2015.

The long-term cost implications of moving to floating offshore platforms are not yet clear; years of rigorous design and testing will be needed before these technologies are commercially viable. New tools will be required to capture the design criteria, which include the need to address weight and buoyancy requirements as well as the heaving and pitching moments created by wave action. Current floating concepts include the spar buoy, the tension leg platform and the buoyancy-stabilised semi-submersible platform (Figure 17). Vertical- axis turbines, which disappeared from land, may have a second chance at sea. Although they have a higher material need to cover same swept areas and have some dynamical structural issues, their lower centre of gravity and fewer parts may be suitable in offshore wind. Vertimed, an EU-funded project led by EDF-Energies Nouvelles with Nenuphar and Technip, aims to install thirteen vertical-axis wind turbines of 2 MW off Fos-sur-Mer in the French Mediterranean waters by 2017.

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7.1.8 Wind characteristic assessment

Accurate assessment of wind characteristics is needed for choosing the right turbines for given sites and selecting the specific locations for turbines within a wind farm (micro-siting). More precise measurements and modelling of external conditions (e.g. climate) can significantly enhance the turbine design process. Ultimately, efforts in both areas contribute to more precise power production forecasts, whether five days or five minutes ahead.

One risk factor that influences investments in wind power relates to the anticipated output from a given plant with turbines located over many square kilometres. Better understanding of the numerous uncertainties in current wind resource assessment processes could result in lower financing costs. Both models and measurements are needed to estimate the long-term average wind resource and the turbine output: measurements offer precision and allow benchmarking models, which offer depth in both time and space.

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Resource assessment and siting

Resource assessment and siting Time frames

1. International wind atlases: develop publicly accessible databases of land- based and offshore wind resources and conditions.


2. Remote sensing techniques: high spatial resolution sensing technology and techniques for use in high-fidelity experiments and siting wind power plants.


3. Siting optimisation of turbines in a wind power plant: develop tools based on state-of-the-art models and standardised micro-siting methods; refine and set standards for modelling techniques for wind resource and micro-siting.


4. Measurement campaigns and model improvement for multi-scale complex flow: improve understanding of complex terrain, offshore conditions and icy climates; develop integrated models linking large-scale climatology, meso-scale meteorological processes, micro-scale terrain and wind farm array effects. Ongoing.

Complete by 2015.

Assess conditions to improve turbine design Time frames

5.Measurement campaigns and model improvement for turbine rotor inflow: experimentation to couple blade loading conditions to rotor inflow, including computational fluid dynamics and wake effects.

Complete by 2020.

6. Marine environment design conditions: design case development for complex interactions among wind, waves, turbulence and current, including handling of extreme conditions such as typhoons and icing

Complete by 2025.

7. Wind forecasts: meteorological wind forecasts, with feed-back loop from wind power plant online data to weather forecasting.

Complete by 2020. Weather forecasting takes input data from wind power plants.

Improve short-term forecasting accuracy Time frames

8. Power production forecasts: for use in power system operation, with storm and icing forecasts Complete by 2020.

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7.1.9 Supply chains, manufacturing and installation

Rapid growth rates of wind energy have given rise to occasional bottlenecks in supply of key components, including labour. Supply chain complexity for onshore wind has increased with the deployment of higher towers and larger blades, and supply chain readiness is a particular issue for offshore wind. Strong supply chains will provide stability and predictability for investors.

Manufacturing and installation Time frames

1. Advanced manufacturing methods: accelerate automated, localised, large-scale manufacturing for economies of scale, with an increased number of recyclable components.

Ongoing. Continue over 2013-50 period.

2. Offshore installation and logistics: make available enough purpose-designed vessels; improve installation strategies; make available suitably equipped large harbour space.

Sufficient capacity by 2015.

3. Develop workforce: develop curricula for wind workforce in industry and academia.

Ongoing. Continue over 2013-50 period.

7.1.10 System integration: actions and time frames

Effective mechanisms for integrating wind power into transmission grids are a key challenge for achieving this roadmap’s goals. Specific actions are needed to promote transmission grid developmen and to improve the operation of power systems.

Transmission planning and development

Improve transmission development Time frames

1. Develop long-term interconnection transmission infrastructure plans in concert with power plant deployment plans; advanced planning tools.

Complete plans by 2015 and tools by 2020

2. Establish workable mechanisms for transmission cost recovery and allocation; provide incentives for accelerated permitting and construction of transmission capacity.Complete by 2015-20.

Complete by 2015-20.

3. Identify agencies to lead large-scale, multi-jurisdictional transmission projects or a “one-stop shop” approach to regulatory approval of major transmission infrastructure projects.

Complete by 2015-20.

4. Develop and implement plans for regional-scale transmission overlays to link regional power markets.

Complete plans by 2015. Achieve deployment by 2030.

5. Develop and implement plans for offshore grids, linking transmission lines, offshore wind resources and power market zones; develop tools to co-optimise offshore grid and wind turbine design (incl. power-to-swept area ratios).

Complete plans by 2015 and tools by 2020. Achieve deployment by 2030.

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7.1.11 Plan and deploy regional super grids and offshore grids

High-voltage direct-current (HVDC) lines reduces energy losses during transmission, and is increasingly used worldwide for bulk power transmission over long distances, for interconnecting power systems and for systems that require long lengths of cable. From a cost perspective, the break-even point between high-voltage alternative- current (HVAC) and HVDC, which is several hundred kilometres on land, is less than 100 km off shore. Continued evolution of HVDC conversion technology, improvements in cable-laying vessels, increased marine cable-laying capacity and innovative trenching equipment will help reduce costs (Wiser and Bolinger, 2012). One recent HVDC technology, voltage source converter (VSC), is usually preferred over the more mature current source converter (CSV) for offshore connections.

7.1.12 Reliable system operation with large shares of wind energy

Variability and uncertainty are not new characteristics of power systems. As demand for power varies by hours, days, and seasons, all power systems must have sufficient firm capacity to respond to load, with some safety margin (i.e. operational reserves) to respond to unforeseen events and forecasting errors. Experiences in Western Europe and the United States suggest that at low-wind energy shares (5% to 10%), the increase in variability “seen” by the system will be small and existing reserve margins are sufficient. As wind penetrations rise, greater amounts of operational reserves will be needed to ensure that combined (forecast/actual) production from wind and dispatchable power plants can continue to be reliably balanced against (forecast/actual) demand.

The main challenge for wind integration is as follows: once the targeted amount of wind energy has been captured and converted into electricity, and sufficient transmission capacity has been secured to deliver it to market, the electricity available must be cost-effectively integrated into the power system while ensuring the security of supply. Existing T&D networks and the physical power markets they support were designed around dispatchable, centralised power generation that can typically be turned off and on according to demand. In contrast, the generation of electricity from wind energy depends on a variable resource that cannot be scheduled, as is possible with conventional plant.

Enable wind integration Time frames

Enable larger balancing areas and use of wind forecast and online data in control rooms of system operators.

Ongoing. Complete by 2015-20.

Assess grid codes and ensure that independent power producers can access grids

Develop electricity markets Time frames

Accelerate development of larger-scale, faster and deeper trading of electricity through evolved power markets and advanced smart grid technology.

Ongoing. Market development by 2020 and wind power in ancillary services market by 2025.

Enable wind power plants taking part in electricity markets, also for system services.

Incentivise timely development and use of flexible reserves, innovative demand-side response and storage.

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Increase power system flexibility Time frames

Develop methods to assess the need for additional power system flexibility to enable variable renewable energy deployment.

Ongoing. Complete by 2020. Carry out system studies to examine the challenges, opportunities, costs and

benefits of high shares of wind power integration.

Prepare strategies for managing wind curtailments.

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7.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: Wind Energy16

Commercial wind energy exist since about 25 years and is relative mature in onshore. The Offshore wind farms in shallow waters are the current challenge with still a lot of necessary improvements: huge investment, high risk, very expensive O&M and deployment. In contrast, generally speaking they have higher wind speeds and less social impact. The shallow water is limited on the North and Baltic Sea; deepwater with floating wind turbines is one future solution with a new and global market. The general problem in wind energy is the still high levelized energy cost LEC. Until now just onshore wind energy and in windy sites is really cheaper than fossil energy. The market challenges are:

•Reduction of the LEC by improving reliability, lifetime and inspection costs and risks.

•Better accuracy of the energy prediction.

•Reduction of the installation costs, especially in Offshore.

•Innovative concepts and materials of the components for Onshore and Offshore Wind Turbines, including design tools. •Improving the power transmission and grid integration for increasing the wind farms deployment, including energy storage.

16 KIC InnoEnergy Thematic Field Renewable Energies - 2013

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7.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy17

7.3.1 Strategic objective

To improve the competitiveness of wind energy technologies, to enable the exploitation of the offshore resources and deep waters potential, and to facilitate grid integration of wind power.

7.3.2 Industrial sector objective

To enable a 20% share of wind energy in the final EU electricity consumption by 2020.

7.3.3 Technology objectives

1. New turbines and components to lower investment, operation and maintenance costs:

To develop large scale turbines in the range of 10 - 20 MW especially for offshore applications.

To improve the reliability of the wind turbine components through the use of new materials, advanced rotor designs, control and monitoring systems.

To further automate and optimise manufacturing processes such as blade manufacturing through cross industrial cooperation with automotive, maritime and civil aerospace.

To develop innovative logistics including transport and erection techniques, in particular in remote, weather hostile sites.

2. Offshore technology with a focus on structures for large-scale turbines and deep waters (30 m).

To develop new stackable, replicable and standardised substructures for large-scale offshore turbines such as: tripods, quadropods, jackets and gravity-based structures.

To develop floating structures with platforms, floating tripods, or single anchored turbine.

To develop manufacturing processes and procedures for mass-production of substructures.

3. Grid integration techniques for large-scale penetration of variable electricity supply.

To demonstrate the feasibility of balancing power systems with high share of wind power using large-scale storage systems and High Voltage Alternative Current (HVAC) or High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) interconnections.

To investigate wind farms management as â€œvirtual power plants".

4. Resource assessment and spatial planning to support wind energy deployment.

To assess and map wind resources across Europe and to reduce forecasting uncertainties of wind energy production.

To develop spatial planning methodologies and tools taking into account environmental and social aspects.

To address and analyse social acceptance of wind energy projects including promotion of best practices.

17 SET -PLAN TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

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8 PV ROADMAPS

8.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2010: PV

This roadmap provides the basis for greater international collaboration and identifies a set of effective technology, economic and policy goals and milestones that will allow solar PV to deliver on its promise and contribute significantly to world power supply. It also identifies the critical window of the next decade, during which PV is expected to achieve competitiveness with the power grid retail prices (“grid parity”) in many regions. Achieving grid parity will require a strong and balanced policy effort in the next decade to allow for optimal technology progress, cost reduction and ramp-up of industrial manufacturing for mass deployment.

Solar energy is the most abundant energy resource on earth. The solar energy that hits the earth’s surface in one hour is about the same as the amount consumed by all human activities in a year. Direct conversion of sunlight into electricity in PV cells is one of the three main solar active technologies, the two others being concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar thermal collectors for heating and cooling (SHC). Today, PV provides 0.1% of total global electricity generation. However, PV is expanding very rapidly due to effective supporting policies and recent dramatic cost reductions. PV is a commercially available and reliable technology with a significant potential for long-term growth in nearly all world regions. In the IEA solar PV roadmap vision, PV is projected to provide 5% of global electricity consumption in 2030, rising to 11% in 2050.

The actions identified in this roadmap are intended to accelerate PV deployment globally. In some markets certain actions have already been achieved, or are underway; but many countries, particularly those in emerging regions, are only just beginning to develop PV power. Accordingly, milestone dates should be considered as indicative of relative urgency, rather than as absolutes.


Solar PV power is a commercially available and reliable technology with a significant potential for long-term growth in nearly all world regions. This roadmap estimates that by 2050, PV will provide around 11% of global electricity production and avoid 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions per year.

Achieving this roadmap’s vision will require an effective, long-term and balanced policy effort in the next decade to allow for optimal technology progress, cost reduction and ramp-up of industrial manufacturing for mass deployment. Governments will need to provide long-term targets and supporting policies to build confidence for investments in manufacturing capacity and deployment of PV systems.

PV will achieve grid parity – i.e. competitiveness with electricity grid retail prices – by 2020 in many regions. As grid parity is achieved, the policy framework should evolve towards fostering self-sustained markets, with the progressive phase-out of economic incentives, but maintaining grid access guarantees and sustained R&D support.

As PV matures into a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy storage become key issues. The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible, efficient and smart grids.

• Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while also supporting longer-term technology innovations.

• There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research, development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and avoid duplicating efforts.

• Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV energy in low-carbon economic development.

Key actions in the next ten years:

•Provide long-term targets and supporting policies to build confidence for investments in manufacturing capacity and deployment of PV systems.

•Implement effective and cost-efficient PV incentive schemes that are transitional and decrease over time so as to foster innovation and technological improvement.

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•Develop and implement appropriate financing schemes, in particular for rural electrification and other applications in developing countries.

•Increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while also supporting longer-term innovations.

8.1.2 Technology performance and cost

The large variety of PV applications allows for a range of different technologies to be present in the market, from low-cost, lower efficiency technologies to high-efficiency technologies at higher cost. Note that the lower cost (per watt) to manufacture some of the module technologies, namely thin films, is partially offset by the higher area-related system costs (costs for mounting and the required land) due to their lower conversion efficiency. figure below gives an overview of the cost and performance of different PV technologies.

8.1.3 LCOE

Associated levelised electricity generation costs from PV systems depend heavily on two factors: the amount of yearly sunlight irradiation (and associated capacity factor), and the interest/ discount rate. PV systems do not have moving parts, so operating and maintenance (O&M) costs are relatively small, estimated at around 1% of capital investment per year. Assuming an interest rate of 10%, the PV electricity generation costs in 2008 for utility-scale applications ranged from USD 240 /MWh in locations with very high irradiation and capacity factor (2 000 kWh/kW, i.e. a 23% capacity factor), to USD 480 /MWh in sites with moderate- low irradiation (1 000 kWh/kW, corresponding to a capacity factor of 11%). The corresponding generation costs for residential PV

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systems ranged from USD 360-720 /MWh, depending on the relevant incident solar energy. While these residential system costs are very high, it should be noted that residential PV systems provide electricity at the distribution grid level. Therefore they compete with electricity grid retail prices, which, in a number of OECD countries, can also be very high.

8.1.4 Applications and market end-use sectors

The relative share of the four market segments (residential, commercial, utility-scale and off- grid) is expected to change significantly over time. In particular, the cumulative installed capacity of residential PV systems is expected to decrease from almost 60% today to less than 40% by 2050. Figure below shows a possible development path for electricity generation of PV systems worldwide by end use sector. The relative shares of PV deployment among the different sectors will vary by country according to each country’s particular market framework.

8.1.5 Cost reduction goals

While the production costs vary among the different PV module technologies, these module- level cost differentials are less significant at the system level, which are expected to converge in the long term. Therefore, this roadmap suggests setting overall cost targets by application (e.g., residential, commercial or utility-scale) rather than for specific PV technologies (e.g., crystalline silicon, thin films, or emerging and novel devices). The roadmap assumes that cost reductions for future PV systems continue along the historic PV experience curve. PV module costs have decreased in the past at a learning rate of 15% to 22%,9 and have seen a corresponding reduction in total system costs for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity. The roadmap adopts a learning rate of 18% for the whole PV system.

The primary PV economic goal is to reduce turn- key system prices and electricity generation costs by more than two-thirds by 2030. Turn-key system prices are expected to drop by 70% from current USD 4 000 to USD 6 000 per kW down to USD 1 200 to USD 1 800 per kW by 2030, with a major price reduction (over 50%) already achieved by 2020. Large scale utility system prices are expected to drop to USD 1 800 per kW by 2020 and USD 800 per kW by 2050, and in the best case will lead to long-term levelised generation costs lower than USD 50 /MWh.

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8.1.6 PV market deployment and competitiveness levels

PV has already achieved competitiveness for a number of off-grid stand-alone products, services and applications. However, the majority of the PV industry output is grid-connected; therefore, the on-grid market will remain the major market segment in the future. Commercial goals for PV are therefore focused on achieving respectively competitiveness with electricity grid retail prices for residential and commercial PV systems, and with electricity generation costs for utility- scale systems. Since electricity prices and solar irradiation vary from one market place to another it is only possible to identify time ranges for PV competitiveness on a global basis. Three main phases have been envisioned for the commercial development of PV.

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8.1.7 Technology development: Strategic goals and milestones

With the aim of achieving further significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements, R&D is predicted to continuously progress in improving existing technologies and developing new technologies. It is expected that a broad variety of technologies will continue to characterise the PV technology portfolio, depending on the specific requirements and economics of the various applications.

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8.1.7.1 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Crystalline silicon

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8.1.7.2 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Thin films

8.1.7.3 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. Emerging technologies and novel concepts18

Emerging technologies Emerging PV technologies comprise advanced inorganic thin film technologies (e.g. Si, CIS) as wells as organic solar cells. Within the organic cells area, there are different technology branches such as the dye sensitised solar cell (a hybrid approach of an organic cell retaining an inorganic component) and fully organic approaches. Organic solar cells are potentially low cost technologies that are about to make their market entrance for niche applications. Their relevance for energy production in power applications, however, remains to be proven. Another emerging PV technology is based on the concept of thermo-photovoltaics whereby a high efficiency PV cell is combined with a thermal radiation source. This concept could also become relevant for concentrating solar technologies in the future.

Novel PV concepts

Novel PV concepts aim at achieving ultra-high- efficiency solar cells by developing active layers which best match the solar spectrum or which modify the incoming solar spectrum. Both approaches build on progress in nanotechnology and nano-materials. Quantum wells, quantum wires and quantum dots are examples of structures introduced in the active layer. Further approaches deal with the collection of excited charge carriers (hot carrier cells) and the formation of intermediate band gaps. These novel concepts are currently the subject of basic research. Their market relevance will depend on whether they can be combined with existing technologies or whether they lead to entirely new cell structures and processes. Large market deployment of such concepts – if proven successful – is expected in the medium to long term. Considerable basic and applied R&D efforts aimed at

18 The label “emerging” applies to technologies for which at least one “proof-of-concept” exists or which can be considered longer – term options that will radically improve the development of the two established solar cell technologies – crystalline Si and thin film solar cells. The label “novel” applies to developments and ideas that can potentially lead to new innovative technologies.

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the mid- to long-term are required in order to further develop these approaches and to ultimately bring them to market in end use applications.

8.1.7.4 Specific technology goals and R&D issues. CPV

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8.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: PV Energy19

In a short – medium term, the market challenge is the cost reduction and improved performance c-Si, and thin film PV (TFPV) to achieve the grid parity for retail electricity. Grid parity would be the key for the strong deployment of the Building Integrated PV (BIPV) applications for both technologies. In the case of TFPV, cost and life-time effective use of new substrates will result in new products and business opportunities related to BIPV and other new applications. In a long term, advanced materials and processes will be the challenges. The market challenges are:

•To increase efficiency, stability and life time as key factors to reduce PV costs.

•Materials abundant and non toxic, easy to recycle and life time over 40 years.

•To reduce energy pay-back time less than one year.

•Low-weight-flexible substrates, reduction of optical losses.

•On line/in-situ monitoring.

19 KIC InnoEnergy Thematic Field Renewable Energies 2013

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8.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: PV20

8.3.1.1 Strategic objective

To improve the competitiveness and ensure the sustainability of the technology and to facilitate its large-scale penetration in urban areas and as free-field production units, as well as its integration into the electricity grid.


Establish photovoltaics (PV) as a clean, competitive and sustainable energy technology providing up to 12% of European electricity demand by 2020.


1. PV Systems to enhance the energy yield and reduce costs

•To increase conversion efficiency, stability and lifetime.

•To further develop and demonstrate advanced, high-yield, high-throughput manufacturing processes, including in-line monitoring and control

•To develop advanced concepts and new generation of PV systems

2. Integration of PV-generated electricity

•To develop and validate innovative, economic and sustainable PV applications

•To develop grid interfaces and storage technologies capable of optimising the PV contribution to the EU electrical energy supply from installations urban and in green field environment


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9 CSP ROADMAPS

9.1 IEA Technology Roadmap: CSP 2010

CSP uses renewable solar resource to generate electricity while producing very low levels of greenhouse-gas emissions. Thus, it has strong potential to be a key technology for mitigating climate change. In addition, the flexibility of CSP plants enhances energy security. Unlike solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, CSP has an inherent capacity to store heat energy for short periods of time for later conversion to electricity. When combined with thermal storage capacity, CSP plants can continue to produce electricity even when clouds block the sun or after sundown. CSP plants can also be equipped with backup power from combustible fuels.

These factors give CSP the ability to provide reliable electricity that can be dispatched to the grid when needed, including after sunset to match late evening peak demand or even around the clock to meet base-load demand. Collectively, these characteristics make CSP a promising technology for all regions with a need for clean, flexible, reliable power. Further, due to these characteristics, CSP can also be seen as an enabling technology to help integrate on grids larger amounts of variable renewable resources such as solar PV or wind power.

While the bulk of CSP electricity will come from large, on-grid power plants, these technologies also show significant potential for supplying specialised demands such as process heat for industry, co-generation of heating, cooling and power, and water desalination. CSP also holds potential for applications such as household cooking and small-scale manufacturing that are important for the developing world.

The possibility of using CSP technologies to produce concentrating solar fuels (CSF, such as hydrogen and other energy carriers), is an important area for further research and development. Solar-generated hydrogen can help decarbonise the transport and other end- use sectors by mixing hydrogen with natural gas in pipelines and distribution grids, and by producing cleaner liquid fuels.

The most favourable areas for CSP resource are in North Africa, southern Africa, the Middle East, northwestern India, the southwestern United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, the western part of China and Australia. Other areas that may be suitable include the extreme south of Europe and Turkey, other southern US locations, central Asian countries, places in Brazil and Argentina, and other parts of China.

Studies show that, in locations with good sunlight (high DNI), extending electricity production to match this demand requires a storage capacity of two to four hours.

CSP plants can enhance the capacity of electricity grids to accommodate a larger share of variable energy sources, thereby increasing overall grid flexibility. CSP plant backup may also eliminate the need to build fossil-fired “peaking” plants purely to meet the highest loads during a few hours of the day.

Although the optimal size of CSP plant is probably 200 MW or more, many existing grids use small power lines at the ends of the grid in less-populated areas, which cannot support the addition of large amounts of electricity

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from solar plants. Thus, in some cases, the size of a CSP plant could be limited by the available power lines or require additional investment in larger transport lines. Furthermore, it is often easier to obtain sites, permits, grid connections and financing for smaller, scalable CSP plant designs, which can also enter production more quickly.

Plant cooling and water requirements

As in other thermal power generation plants, CSP requires water for cooling and condensing processes. CSP water requirements are relatively high: about 3 000 L/MWh for parabolic trough and LFR plants (similar to a nuclear reactor) compared to about 2 000 L/MWh for a coal plant and only 800 L/MWh for combined-cycle natural gas plants. Tower CSP plants need less water per MWh than trough plants, depending on the efficiency of the technology. Dishes are cooled by the surrounding air, and need no cooling water.

Accessing large quantities of water is an important challenge to the use of CSP in arid regions, as available water resources are highly valued by many stakeholders. Dry cooling (with air) is one effective alternative used on the ISCC plants under construction in North Africa. However, it is more costly and reduces efficiencies. Dry cooling installed on trough plants in hot deserts reduces annual electricity production by 7% and increases the cost of the produced electricity by about 10%. The “performance penalty” of dry cooling is lower for solar towers than for parabolic troughs.

Installation of hybrid wet/dry cooling systems is a more attractive option as such systems reduce water consumption while minimising the performance

penalty. As water cooling is more effective but more costly, operators of hybrid systems tend to use only dry cooling in the winter when cooling needs are lower, then switch to combined wet and dry cooling during the summer. For a parabolic trough CSP plant, this approach could reduce water consumption by 50% with only a 1% drop in annual electrical energy production.

CSP for niche markets

CSP technologies can be highly effective in various niche markets. Mid-sized CSP plant can fuel remote facilities such as mines and cement factories. Even small CSP devices (typically using organic Rankine cycles or micro-turbines) can be useful on buildings to provide electricity, heat and cooling.

CSP plants can produce significant quantities of industrial process heat. For example, a solar tower will soon produce steam for enhanced oil recovery in the United States. At a smaller scale, concentrating sunlight can be used for cooking and artisanal production such as pottery. The advantages could be considerable in developing countries, ranging from independence from fossil resources, protection of ecosystems from deforestation and land degradation, more reliable pottery firing and, in the case of cooking, reduction of indoor air pollution and its resulting health impacts. The scope of this roadmap precludes a full investigation of these possibilities, barriers to their dissemination, or policies to overcome such barriers.

Large CSP plants may also prove effective for cogeneration to support water desalination. CSP plants are often located in arid or semi-arid areas where water is becoming scarcer while water demand is increasing rapidly as populations and economies grow. CSP plants could be designed so that low-pressure steam is extracted from the turbine to run multi-effect distillation (MED) stages. Such plants would produce fresh water along with electricity, but at some expense of efficiency loss in power production. Economic studies suggest that it might be preferable, however, to separate the two processes, using CSP for electricity production and reverse osmosis for desalination, when the working temperature is relatively low, as with trough plants. Cogeneration of electricity and fresh water would probably work best with higher temperature levels, such as with towers.

Figure below shows the growth of CSP electricity production by region according to this roadmap. This projection takes into account a significant amount of electricity transportation.

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The vital role of transmission

This roadmap sees long-range transportation of electricity as an important way of increasing the achievable potential of CSP. Large countries such as Brazil, China, India, South Africa and the United States will have to arrange for large internal transmission of CSP-generated electricity.

In other cases, high-voltage transmission lines will cross borders, opening export markets for CSP producing countries and increasing energy security for importing countries. Australia might feed Indonesia; the Central Asian countries supply Russia; Northern African countries and Turkey deliver power to the European Union; northern and southern African countries feed equatorial Africa; and Mexico provide CSP electricity to the United States.

The transfer of large amounts of solar energy from desert areas to population centres has been promoted, in particular, by the DESERTEC Foundation. This idea has inspired two major initiatives in Europe, the Mediterranean Solar Plan and the DESERTEC Industry Initiative. The first, developed within the framework of the Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean, aims to bring about 20 GW of renewable electricity to EU countries by 2020 from the various developing economies that adhered to this recently created intergovernmental organisation.

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Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide low-carbon, renewable energy resources in countries or regions with strong direct normal irradiance (DNI), i.e. strong sunshine and clear skies. This roadmap envisages development and deployment of CSP along the following paths:

•By 2050, with appropriate support, CSP could provide 11.3% of global electricity, with 9.6% from solar power and 1.7% from backup fuels (fossil fuels or biomass).

•In the sunniest countries, CSP can be expected to become a competitive source of bulk power in peak and intermediate loads by 2020, and of base-load power by 2025 to 2030.

•The possibility of integrated thermal storage is an important feature of CSP plants, and virtually all of them have fuel-power backup capacity. Thus, CSP offers firm, flexible electrical production capacity to utilities and grid operators while also enabling effective management of a greater share of variable energy from other renewable sources (e.g. photovoltaic and wind power).

•This roadmap envisions North America as the largest producing and consuming region for CSP electricity, followed by Africa, India and the Middle East. Northern Africa has the potential to be a large exporter (mainly to Europe) as its high solar resource largely compensates for the additional cost of long transmission lines.

•CSP can also produce significant amounts of high-temperature heat for industrial processes, and in particular can help meet growing demand for water desalination in arid countries.

•Given the arid/semi-arid nature of environments that are well-suited for CSP, a key challenge is accessing the cooling water needed for CSP plants. Dry or hybrid dry/wet cooling can be used in areas with limited water resources.

•The main limitation to expansion of CSP plants is not the availability of areas suitable for power production, but the distance between these areas and many large consumption centres. This roadmap examines technologies that address this challenge through efficient, long- distance electricity transportation.

•CSP facilities could begin providing competitive solar-only or solar-enhanced gaseous or liquid fuels by 2030. By 2050, CSP could produce enough solar hydrogen to displace 3% of global natural gas consumption, and nearly 3% of the global consumption of liquid fuels.

Concerted action by all stakeholders is critical to realising the vision laid out in this roadmap. In order to stimulate investment on the scale required to support research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDD&D), governments must take the lead role in creating a favourable climate for industry and utilities. Specifically, governments should undertake the following:

•Ensure long-term funding for additional RD&D in: all main CSP technologies; all component parts (mirrors/heliostats, receivers, heat transfer and/or working fluids, storage, power blocks, cooling, control and integration); all applications (power, heat and fuels); and at all scales (bulk power and decentralised applications).

•Facilitate the development of ground and satellite measurement/modelling of global solar resources.

•Support CSP development through long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives. These could include any combination of feed-in tariffs or premiums, binding renewable energy portfolio standards with solar targets, capacity payments and fiscal incentives.

•Where appropriate, require state-controlled utilities to bid for CSP capacities.

•Avoid establishing arbitrary limitations on plant size and hybridisation ratios (but develop procedures to reward only the electricity deriving from the solar energy captured by the plant, not the portion produced by burning backup fuels).

•Streamline procedures for obtaining permits for CSP plants and access lines.

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9.1.2 LCOE

Assuming an average 10% learning ratio,7 CSP investment costs would fall by about 50% from 2010 to 2020, as cumulative capacities would double seven times according to the vision proposed in this roadmap – if all stakeholders undertake the actions it recommends. Electricity costs would decrease even faster thanks to progressively greater capacity factors, making CSP technology competitive with conventional technologies for peak and intermediate loads in the sunniest countries by about 2020. This perspective is fully consistent with the potential for improvement for the various technologies identified in the next section.

Solar thermal hydrogen production costs are expected to be USD 2/kg to USD 4/kg by 2020 for efficient solar thermodynamic cycles (detailed below), significantly lower than costs of solar electricity coupled with electrolysis, which are expected to be USD 6/kg to USD 8/kg when solar electricity cost is down to USD 80/MWh. Solar- assisted steam reforming of natural gas would become competitive with natural gas (as an energy source) at prices of about USD 11/MBtu.

9.1.3 Technology development: Strategic goals and milestones

Milestones for technology improvements Dates

•1. Demonstrate direct steam generation (DSG) in parabolic trough plants. •2015 - 2020

•2. Large-scale solar tower with molten salts as heat transfer fluids and storage •2010 - 2015

•3. Mass-produced parabolic dishes with Stirling engines •2010 - 2015

•4. Demonstrate three-step thermal storage for DSG solar plants •2015 - 2020

•5. Demonstrate solar tower with supercritical steam cycle •2020 - 2030

•6. Demonstrate solar tower with air receiver and gas turbine •2020 - 2030

Troughs and LFR

In an ongoing effort to increase performance and lower costs, all components of parabolic troughs need to continue to make incremental improvements, particularly solar field elements. Effective but costly back-silvered, thick-glass curved mirrors could be replaced with troughs based on less expensive technologies such as

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acrylic substrates coated with silver, flexible aluminium sheets covered with silver or aluminium, or aluminium sheets glued to a glass- fibre substrate. Wider troughs, with apertures close to 7 m (versus 5 m to 6 m currently) are under development, and offer the potential for incremental cost reductions.

Towers and dishes

CSP towers, which already reach high working temperature levels, can achieve higher temperatures still, opening the door to better power cycle efficiencies. Storage costs can also be drastically reduced with higher temperatures, which allow more heat to be converted into electricity and less lost due to limited storage capacity. Improved efficiency also means a lower cooling load, thus reducing water consumption by wet cooling in plants in arid areas. It would also reduce the performance penalty of dry cooling.

Improvements in storage technologies

Increasing the overall working temperatures of plants is the best means of reducing storage costs. Several types of storage-specific research are promising, including the use of inexpensive recycled materials such as vitrified wastes (e.g. asbestos wastes) with a glass or ceramic structure. Adding nanoparticles to increase the heat capacity of molten salts is another option. A third possibility is to use thermocline separation between hot and cold molten salts in a single tank, but leakage risks are more difficult to manage in this case.

Emerging solar fuel technologies

Concentrating solar thermal technologies also allow the production of hydrogen (H2), which forms the basis of fuels, or carriers, that can help store solar energy and distribute it to industry, households and transportation, substituting fossil- based fuels with low-emission solar energy. Solar towers and large dishes are capable of delivering the required amount of heat at the appropriate temperatures.

9.1.4 Deployment in developing economies

The full potential for global CSP deployment requires particular attention to the needs of developing economies. While some would, under this roadmap, build CSP plants for their own needs (e.g. China and India), others would build more for exports, notably North African countries.

Governments of developing countries have come to realise that CSP technology, which in a few years could have extensive local content, is a productive investment. Some governments are making considerable investments in CSP, as it offers a strategy to reduce energy imports and protection against spikes in the costs of fossil fuels. Algeria and South Africa have established feed-in tariffs for CSP, and India recently set aside USD 930 million to launch its Solar Mission with the aim to build 20 GW of solar capacities (PV and CSP) by 2022. Morocco has established a detailed plan for building 2 GW of solar plants on five sites from 2010 to 2019, representing 38% of the current installed electric capacity of the country. One US company recently contracted with partners to build solar towers in India and China with overall capacities of 1 GW and 2 GW, respectively.

There are several ways of helping developing countries cover the cost difference between CSP and more conventional power sources in the first decade. These include the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which offers a mechanism for industrialised nations to pay for CO2 reductions in developing countries. The Shams-1 project is an example of a CDM project that has already been registered. The World Bank’s Clean Technology Fund has also set aside USD 750 million to cover 10% of the investment costs of CSP plants in the Middle East and

North Africa. Such investments may also receive attractive loans from regional development banks and, according to their proportion of imported material, from export credit agencies.

For North African countries and, to a lesser extent Middle East and Central Asian countries, electricity exports are expected to be a catalyst to the development of CSP. The marginal cost of electricity production is already higher in several potential importing countries, notably in Europe. Furthermore, Europeans may accept an even higher price for imported renewable electricity to help achieve the ambitious objective of obtaining 20% of Europe’s final energy from renewable sources.

It is too early to estimate the marginal cost of renewable electricity needed in Europe to achieve these targets, but if the level of feed-in tariffs is an indication, the price paid by European countries could cover the cost of CSP electricity in North Africa and its transport to Europe. Cross- border incentives have thus to be set to facilitate integration. In the importing country, priority grid connection should be offered to all renewable energy projects, independent of origin. In both exporting and importing countries, laws and regulations should allow fast-track approval of new transmission lines.

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Such projects need to result in win-win situations. It would seem unacceptable, for example, if all solar electricity were exported overseas while local populations and economies lacked sufficient power resources. Newly built plants will have to fulfil the needs of the local population and help develop local economies. Meanwhile, the returns from exporting clean, highly valued renewable electricity to industrialised countries could help cover the high initial investment costs of CSP beyond the share devoted to exports. CSP would thus represent a welcome diversification from oil and gas exports, and help develop local economies by providing income, electricity, knowledge, technology and qualified jobs.

Possible energy security risks for importing countries must also be carefully assessed. Large exports would require many HVDC lines following various pathways. The largest transfers envisioned in this roadmap, from North Africa to Europe, would require by 2050 over 125 GW of HVDC lines with 50% capacity factor – i.e. 25 distinct 5 GW lines following various paths. If some were out of order for technical reasons, or as a result of an attack, others would still operate – and, if the grid within importing and exporting countries permits, possibly take over. In any case, utilities usually operate with significant generating capacity reserves, which could be brought on line in case of supply disruptions, albeit at some cost. Furthermore, the loss of revenue for supply countries would be unrecoverable, as electricity cannot be stored, unlike fossil fuels. Thus, exporting countries, even more than importing ones, would be willing to safeguard against supply disruptions.

9.2 KIC INNOENERGY Technology Roadmap 2013: CSP Energy21

The market challenge in Solar Thermal Electricity (STE), also known as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), is to reach effective levelized energy cost (LEC) that make it possible to install STE plants without subsidies (feed-in tariffs or tax credits). The main issues are: increasing efficiency, cost reduction on the components and O&M, and energy management by improved storage. The market challenges are:

•To increase competitiveness of STE and reduce the land requirement.

•Lower investment and O&M costs in order to reduce the LEC.

•Better dispatchability and grid integration to allow a higher market penetration.

•To achieve lower water consumption and environmental hazards, and reduce or eliminate problems associated with thermal oils.


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9.3 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: CSP 22


To demonstrate the competitiveness and readiness for mass deployment of advanced concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, through scaling-up of the most promising technologies to pre-commercial or commercial level.


To contribute around 3% of European electricity supply by 2020 with a potential of at least 10% by 2030 if the DESERTECThe concept of DESERTEC is a massive deployment of solar technology, mainly CSP, in MENA countries and the export of electricity to Europe. (MENA = Middle East, and North Africa) vision is achieved. Technology objectives


Achieving large-scale, sustainable deployment of advanced CSP plants with better performance and lower costs requires addressing a series of technical Issues, as well as carrying out a parallel series R&D and demonstration activities designed to better exploit the inherent strengths of CSP technology.

1. Reduction of generation, operation and maintenance costs


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To improve the conversion efficiency at system level as well as the reliability and efficiency of individual components.

To develop advanced plant monitoring and control technologies.

2. Improvement of operational flexibility and energy dispatchability

To develop and improve thermal energy storage, as well as hybridisation of the power plant with natural gas and potentially with bio-mass renewable energy.

3. Improvement in the environmental and water-use footprint

To reduce the cooling water consumption through innovative cycles, by developing dry cooling systems and optimising land use through new and innovative designs.

To demonstrate CSP-specific sustainable water desalination processes.

4. Advanced concepts & designs

To address advanced components, concepts and systems.

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10 OCEAN ROADMAPS

10.1 IEA (OES) Technology Roadmap 2012: Ocean23

Ocean Energy Systems (OES) is the short name for the international technology initiative on Ocean Energy under the IEA, known as the ‘Implementing Agreement on Ocean Energy Systems’.

The Ocean Energy Systems Implementing Agreement (OES) is an intergovernmental collaboration between countries, to advance research, development and demonstration of technologies to harness energy from all forms of ocean renewable resources, such as tides, waves, currents, temperature gradient (ocean thermal energy conversion and submarine geothermal energy) and salinity gradient for electricity generation, as well as for other uses, such as desalination, through international co-operation and information exchange.

As of December 2011, 19 countries are members of the OES: Portugal, Denmark, United Kingdom, Japan, Ireland, Canada, the United States of America, Belgium, Germany, Norway, Mexico, Spain, Italy, New Zealand, Sweden, Australia, Republic of Korea, South Africa and China ordered by sequence of joining the Agreement.

The OES covers all forms of energy generation, in which seawater forms the motive power, through its physical and chemical properties. It does not presently cover offshore wind generation, since seawater is not the motive power (offshore wind is covered by the Wind Energy Implementing Agreement).


The European Ocean Energy Association is a fast-growing membership organisation set up with Commission support to represent the sector to the European Commission, Parliament and Council of Members . The Industry vision paper 2013, remarks that there is already good consensus on the main technical risks facing the sector. By focusing on addressing these challenges at the European level, the industry can identify specific action areas where a unified and coordinated approach is required.24

Funded by the European Commission and led by the European Ocean Energy Association, the Strategic Initiative on Ocean Energy (SI OCEAN project) will deliver recommended actions to overcome these risks. SI OCEAN’s first technical report has identified that whilst some of these risks can be tackled at the single-prototype level, the sector will face a new set of challenges as it moves to installing small arrays. Beyond this phase the project life of the first commercial farms from engineering design to decommissioning will also bring significant new challenges.

For the supply chain and technology developers who are pioneering innovation in this area initial risk exposure is high. Capital support for R&D and demonstration continues to be vital.

23 OES. ANNUAL REPORT 2012/ IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENT ON OCEAN ENERGY SYSTEMS 24 European Ocean Energy Association. Industry vision paper 2013.

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Grant support should not be limited to individual device designs strategic funding should also be targeted at generic systems, new materials and enabling technologies. It will also be important to direct support toward innovation in the supply chain.

•Demo and Array funding - get demo machines into the water. Keep them operational for as long as possible to generate performance and environmental data.

•Improve system and individual component reliability - onshore and offshore sub-system and component testing; and design to improve system integration and performance.

•Supply Chain, Enabling Technologies and Materials – R&D and testing

•Cross-cutting enabling technologies and components - with wider application in other sectors.

10.1.2 LCOE

Affordability: Cost reduction

The Carbon Trust estimates that for tidal technologies the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is in the range £290-330/ MWh and for wave technologies the range is £380-480/MWh (assuming that the first 10MW of similar devices have already been installed; and a 20 year life and 15% discount rate).

Many analysts expect the range of cost reduction to be 15-18%, which compares well to the historic learning rate for other renewable energy technologies. This will be based on progress in the 3 areas known to contribute to cost reduction: R&D; Learning-by-doing; and Economies of scale.

Continued efforts at improving the affordability of ocean energy technologies will require significant technical innovation, and cost reduction will have to be targeted for successive models of device.

10.1.3 Technology challenges

Reliable Performance and Surviving a Lifetime in the Ocean

It is crucial for offshore renewable technologies to perform reliably and survive in extreme conditions for up to 25 years. Downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance must be kept to a minimum.

This is true for all technologies, but more so for ocean energy technologies. All ocean energy technologies will need to survive millions of cycles of sustained and extreme loads in a naturally corrosive environment. Added to this, life expectancy and failure modes are not yet proven.

Manufacturing, Installation and Operations

So far, innovation in this area has supported the manufacture and installation of one-off machines. Scaling up will require streamlined manufacturing and installation processes, together with optimised maintenance routines. Some supply chain players have already started to work on bespoke solutions for the ocean energy sector – seeing this as a future growth area.

Stimulating the supply chain is part of the solution. At this early stage, technical risks are compounded by limited installation and operational experience. Supporting the deployment of more demonstration machines at sea more often - and keeping them operational for as long as possible - will help to make these processes cheaper, safer and quicker in the future.

The Science of Resource Assessment and Performance Prediction

We are still some way away from delivering the first “bankable” yield estimates for ocean energy devices. There are two issues at stake. First, industry needs to understand the resource, and its impact on power output and energy capture. Second, industry needs a better understanding of the reliability of devices themselves. Several projects, including SI OCEAN are currently developing standardised systems for improving the accuracy of yield estimates for single devices and arrays.

Sustained investment in industry-level coordination and cooperation in this area will be essential to delivering standardised methodologies that project financiers and banks can trust in the future.

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10.2 KIC Innoenergy Technology Roadmap 2013: Ocean25

Ocean energy comprises a number of sources, including wave, tidal stream and salinity gradient. Macroalgae (seaweed) for the production of bio-combustibles whist not normally considered as an ocean energy source may also be included here. Macroalgae allow addressing the energy sector and not only the electrical energy sector. Whilst Salinity Gradient and Macroalgae are not considered in this report, they should be under analysis and included in a forthcoming technological review.

Ocean energy technologies are in an early stage of development, with a short number of demonstration installations, in comparison with other “mature” technologies like wind industry. The generation costs of the four ocean energy sources are still considerably higher than other renewable technologies. From a market perspective, there is a need for innovation to decrease the costs, and improve the performance and lifetime of specific components of the devices. Cost competitiveness in ocean energy is a longer-term, higher risk endeavor compared to that required for other renewable technologies. However if requirements are fulfilled, it will pay-off due to the large amounts of clean energy available. The market challenges are:

There is a need for innovation to decrease the costs, and improve the performance and lifetime of specific components of the devices.

Reduction of Operational and O&M costs.

To develop and build prototypes of ocean energy converters and components.


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11 BIOENERGY ROADMAPS

11.1 IEA Technology Roadmap 2012: Bioenergy26

Bioenergy is the largest single renewable energy source today, providing 10% of global primary energy supply. It plays a crucial role in many developing countries, where it provides basic energy for cooking and space heating, but often at the price of severe health and environmental impacts. The deployment of advanced biomass cookstoves and clean fuels, and additional off- grid biomass electricity supply in developing countries, are key measures to improve the current situation and achieve universal access to clean energy facilities by 2030. In addition, this roadmap envisages a strong increase in bioenergy electricity supply to 2050. Bioenergy would then provide 3 100 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of dispatchable and in many cases flexible electricity, meeting 7.5% of world electricity demand, and contributing considerably to better energy security. A significant increase in bioenergy demand is also envisaged in industry, where it can provide high temperature heat and replace CO2-intensive coke and coal. Rapidly growing demand for biofuels also needs to be considered as it adds to the total biomass demand for energy today and in the future.


This roadmap envisages world total primary bioenergy supply increasing from 50 EJ today to 160 EJ in 2050, with 100 EJ of this for generation of heat and power.

In line with analysis in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, this roadmap aims at the deployment of advanced biomass cookstoves and biogas systems to 320 million households in developing countries by 2030. This deployment is essential as part of a sustained effort to provide universal access to clean energy.

By 2050 bioenergy could provide 3 100 TWh of electricity, i.e. 7.5% of world electricity generation. In addition heat from bioenergy could provide 22 EJ (15% of total) of final energy consumption in industry and 24 EJ (20% of total) in the buildings sector in 2050.

Bioenergy electricity could bring 1.3 Gt CO2- equivalent (CO2-eq.) emission savings per year in 2050, in addition to 0.7 Gt per year from biomass heat in industry and buildings, if the feedstock can be produced sustainably and used efficiently, with very low life-cycle GHG emissions.

Large-scale (>50 MW) biomass power plants will be important to achieve this roadmap’s vision, since they allow for electricity generation at high efficiencies and relatively low costs. Co-firing biomass in coal-fired plants provides an opportunity for short-term and direct reduction of emissions, so avoiding the “carbon lock-in effect” (the inertia that tends to perpetuate fossil-fuel based energy systems).

Smaller-scale (<10 MW) plants have lower electric efficiencies and higher generation costs, and are best deployed in combined heat and power mode, when a sustained heat demand from processes or district heating is available.

Biomass heat and electricity can already be competitive with fossil fuels under favourable circumstances today. Through standardising optimised plant designs, and improving electricity generation efficiencies, bioenergy electricity generation costs could become generally competitive with fossil fuels under a CO2 price regime.

Enhanced research, development and demonstration efforts will bring new technologies such as small-scale, high efficiency conversion technologies to the market. Development of biomass conversion to biomethane for injection into the natural gas grid could become one very interesting option, since it could exploit existing investments in gas infrastructure and provide flexible electricity.

Around 100 EJ (5 billion to 7 billion dry tonnes) of biomass will be required in 2050, in addition to 60 EJ (3 billion to 4 billion dry tonnes) for production of biofuels. Studies suggest such supply could be sourced in a sustainable way from wastes, residues and purpose grown energy crops.

International trade in biomass and biomass intermediates (pellets, pyrolysis oil, biomethane) will be vital to match supply and demand in different regions and will require large-scale development of biomass and its intermediates.

To achieve the targets in this roadmap, total investment needs in bioenergy electricity generation plants globally are around USD 290 billion between 2012 and 2030, and USD 200 billion between 2031 and 2050. In addition, considerable investments in bioenergy heating installations in industry and buildings are required. Total

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expenditures on feedstocks are in the range of USD 7 trillion to USD 14 trillion in 2012-2050, depending heavily on feedstock prices.

In the next 10 years to 20 years, cost differences between bioenergy and fossil derived heat and power will remain a challenge. Economic support measures specific to different markets will be needed as transitional measures, leading to cost competitiveness in the medium term. Such support is justified when environmental, energy security, and socio-economic benefits result.

Key actions in the next ten years

•Create a stable, long-term policy framework for bioenergy to increase investor confidence and allow for private sector investments in the sustainable expansion of bioenergy production.

•Introduce efficient support mechanisms for bioenergy that effectively address the specifics of both electricity and heat markets.

•Increase research efforts on development of bioenergy feedstocks and land suitability mapping to identify the most promising feedstock types and locations for future scaling up.

•Replace traditional biomass use through more efficient stoves and clean fuels (e.g. biogas) by the creation of viable supply chains for advanced biomass cookstoves and household biogas systems.

•Support the installation of more pilot and demonstration projects, including innovative concepts for small-scale co-generation power plants, including their complete supply chains.

•Set medium-term targets for bioenergy that will eventually lead to a doubling of current primary bioenergy supply (i.e. to 100 EJ) by 2030. This will help to establish supply chains, assess the impact on sustainability and identify viable options for effective integration of bioenergy in biomass value chains.

•Implement internationally agreed sustainability criteria, indicators and assessment methods for bioenergy. These should provide a basis for the development of integrated land-use management schemes that aim for a more resource efficient and sustainable production of food, feed, bioenergy and other services.

•Introduce internationally aligned technical standards for biomass and biomass intermediates, in order to reduce and eventually abolish trade barriers, enhance sustainable biomass trade and tap new feedstock sources.

•Support international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfer to promote the adoption of best practices in sustainable agriculture, forestry and bioenergy production.

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11.1.2 Economics today

The economic viability of bioenergy derived electricity and/or heat depends on which of the wide variety of feedstocks and technologies are deployed, and critically on the scale of operation and availability of heat sinks (district heating network, demand in industry). This is particularly important as far as electricity generation is concerned, as with increasing scale efficiency increases and the capital costs per unit of generation decline sharply.

Electricity generation can in some cases be competitive today where low cost fuels such as wastes or process residues are used, the scale of generation is high or there is also a good heat load enabling effective co-generation operation. However in most cases generation currently requires some level of financial support, particularly where the external costs of fossil fuel based generation are not fully taken into account.

Heat generated from biomass can also be a cost- competitive option today, again depending on feedstock and scale of operation, and on the fuel source being replaced (see below for a fuller discussion of current economic and future trends).

11.1.3 Electricity generation technology options and costs

Currently most biomass electricity generation is based on conventional steam turbines, at a range of scales of operation, and this is the basis for the analysis that follows. A further set of generation technologies is becoming available, including gasification and use of the resulting gases in an engine or a fuel cell to produce power. Such systems potentially offer better generation efficiency and lower capital costs, but as the systems are so far not deployed on a commercial scale it is difficult to find reliable cost and operating data for inclusion in the analysis. However the demonstration of such systems may well open up opportunities for reduced costs and improved efficiencies, particularly at lower scales, and these technologies are expected to play an increasing role in the longer term.

Overall costs could be reduced and energy generation efficiencies enhanced with combined heat and power operation. This is particularly evident for the smaller scale systems, where electricity generation efficiencies are low. The overall economics in these cases will be determined by the availability of a steady heat load, and

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operation is likely to be determined by the pattern of heat demand rather than the desire to produce electricity at high load factors. For larger scale systems, finding steady heat loads capable of taking all the potentially generated heat is more problematic. Such plants are best suited in a situation where a steady industrial heat load, or a network with a regular heat demand (e.g. district heating) is available. As discussed earlier, using heat to meet cooling demand might become a valid option in the future: it could create a year-round heat demand and thus enhance the viability of large-scale co-generation operation.

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11.1.4 Heat production options and costs

Producing heat from biomass is well established. Commercially available systems include small scale systems for domestic use through to very large industrial systems. The capital and operating costs for heat generating systems vary with scale in a similar manner to those for electricity generation, although efficiency is less sensitive to scale of operation.

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11.1.5 Applications and market end-use sectors

Total final bioenergy consumption in this roadmap vision increases from 43 EJ today to 60 EJ in 2050 (Figure 8). Achieving this vision, and the associated CO2 reductions, will require the deployment of a set of efficient bioenergy conversion technologies at different scales. Small-scale systems (<1 MW), including efficient biomass stoves, are best suited to provide heat only, since capital costs per unit for co-generation systems are significantly higher, and electric efficiencies relatively low, compared to utility-scale plants . Such systems play a key role in replacing inefficient traditional use of biomass for cooking and heating in developing countries, and to a lesser extent in replacing fossil fuel-fired domestic heating systems, including in industrialised countries. In the medium to long term, thanks to enhanced RD&D efforts, more efficient small-scale co-generation options such as fuel cells run on biomethane will eventually emerge and play an increasing role in providing both heat and electricity.

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coal in existing assets by means of co-firing will be an important way of achieving emission reductions with comparatively small additional investments. Nonetheless, since efficiencies in old coal-fired plants are considerably lower than in state-of the art installations, dedicated biomass plants at similar scales will increasingly be needed to replace to provide additional capacity in order to achieve the supply of bioenergy electricity and heat envisioned in this roadmap. In the medium term, a transition towards more efficient (in terms of electric efficiency) technologies including biomass gasification, and biomethane production for use in natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants, will be needed to reach this roadmap’s targets. Biomethane in particular could benefit from the rapidly expanding production and use of unconventional gas, which in certain regions is leading to new infrastructure investments (including gas storage). In regions where coal-fired electricity and heat generation is dominant (e.g. China, India, Indonesia), co-firing will likely remain an important option for emission reductions

11.1.6 Milestones for technology improvements

Technology Timing

•Develop low-cost, efficient biomass cookstoves, suited to customer needs 2012-2015

•1st commercial-scale torrefaction and pyrolysis plant 2.015

•1st commercial-scale bio-SNG and BIGCC plant 2.015

•Develop "off the shelf" plant design to reduce capital costs 2012-2020

•Better feedstock flexibility for pre-treatment technologies to allow for broader feedstock base 2012-2020

•1st commercial-scale BECCS project 2020-2025

•Increase average electricity generation efficiency by 5 percentage points 2.030

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Milestones for feedstocks and sustainability Timing

•Adopt sound sustainability certification schemes for biomass. 2012-20

•Reduce and eventually abolish tariffs and other trade barriers (e.g. logistical) and adopt international technical standards to promote biomass trade. 2012-20

•Continue alignment of LCA methodology with regard to direct and indirect land-use change, to provide a basis for sound support policies. 2012-20

•Increase bioenergy production based on “low-risk” feedstocks (e.g. wastes and residues) and through yield improvements. 2012-30

•Improve biomass potential analysis with better regional and economic data, including from large-scale energy crop field trials. 2012-30

•Enhance biomass cascading and use of co-products through integration of bioenergy production in biorefineries. 2012-50

11.1.7 Bioenergy in developing countries

Bioenergy today plays a key role in the energy supply of many developing countries, in particular in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given that a large share of world primary bioenergy supply is consumed in these countries and that their energy demand is expected to grow in the future, it will be crucial to consider the particular needs of developing countries and develop specific policy frameworks to achieve the level of bioenergy deployment envisaged in this roadmap.

Most of the biomass consumed in non-OECD countries is often used for domestic heating (including cooking) at very low efficiencies. The high reliance on biomass as a primary source of energy also leads to environmental problems such as forest degradation, a problem that is likely to increase with population growth. Improving the efficiency of current traditional biomass use and deploying alternative fuels for cooking such as biogas and ethanol will thus be crucial elements in a more sustainable bioenergy supply in developing countries (for further discussion see IEA, 2011c).

Several small-scale bioenergy projects in developing countries have already been shown to lead to greater access to energy and to offer new opportunities in rural areas, by creating new employment and revenues along the supply chain. Bioenergy can also help reduce spending on fossil fuels, for instance when diesel generators are run on locally produced vegetable oil, or when biogas is used to generate electricity instead. In addition, such developments can increase the reliability of fuel supply and enable higher productivity due to more reliable access to electricity. One of the key challenges to overcome is the initial investment needed for a diesel generator or biogas system with engine, since local communities often lack the required capital. Government support and innovative private sector schemes will therefore be needed to overcome this initial economic hurdle. Overviews of some case studies are given, for instance, by Janssen and Rutz (2012) and Practical Action Consulting (2009).

Commercial-scale options to generate bioenergy electricity and heat are another option to increase supply while making use of domestic resources. Several countries outside the OECD are already generating bioenergy on a commercial scale, with Brazil and China among the largest producers of electricity from biomass. Some of the technology options deployed for instance in Brazil, where sugarcane mills are using bagasse for electricity and heat generation, could be replicated in other sugar- producing countries in Africa and Asia. Given the lack of access to electricity in many developing countries, such options should be pursued vigorously.

Many developing countries face particular challenges in developing a viable, sustainable bioenergy industry. Limited financial resources, poor infrastructure, lack of skilled labour and lack of formal land ownership structures are among the most significant barriers. Most of these challenges are aggravated by unstable policy frameworks, which can pose considerable risks for private sector investments. Bioenergy development will therefore also depend on public investment. In order to make such investments worthwhile, it will be essential to make the fullest use of synergies with existing industries such as crop and timber production. The benefits of

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infrastructure investments (e.g. road/ rail, electricity access) can be maximised when undertaken as part of an overall rural development strategy that promotes rural development.

Administrative and governance problems may severely affect large-scale foreign investment in developing countries. Foreign investment in bioenergy projects may also be constrained by the limited size of domestic markets. Export of biomass or biomass intermediates to regions with strong demand can therefore be a viable option to attract new investments. Ensuring access to international markets for biomass exports is likely to increase investor confidence. However, it can create risks, for instance in the form of so-called land-grabbing, i.e. (foreign) investors buying or leasing vast amounts of agricultural land for bioenergy production, with negative impact on local farmers. Supporting smallholder participation in bioenergy value chains will be vital to avoid displacement of local populations and maximise benefits for rural development. Another option for financing bioenergy projects, including at village level or for individual households, is through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Around 12% of all projects under the CDM today are bioenergy projects, and there is still considerable scope for developing CDM bioenergy projects in less developed countries.

Sound political frameworks, including land management schemes and sustainability certification based on internationally agreed criteria, will be crucial elements to ensure that foreign investments and CDM projects materialise. A challenge for developing countries is that costs of sustainability certification are typically higher than in industrialised countries; they can reach 20% of total production costs for smallholders (UNCTAD, 2008). There is thus a need to couple certification requirements with financing and technical assistance that allows developing countries to master and apply certification schemes, improve the credibility of their assessment bodies and reduce costs for certification of biomass production.

Capacity building along the whole supply chain will also be crucial to make full use of bioenergy. Building capacity for feedstock cultivation needs to involve best agricultural and forestry practices, which will benefit farmers and can increase productivity and sustainability of the whole agricultural/ forestry sectors. International collaboration and investments through public- private partnerships are needed to couple business models with comprehensive agricultural education and training for farmers. Furthermore, to ensure technology access and transfer, co-operation on RD&D should be enhanced among industrialised and emerging economies, as well as among developing countries. Technologies and biomass supply strategies suited to a country’s specific needs should be developed, based on techno- economic analysis and with reference to experience in other countries. The focus in the short term should be on strategies that are technically less complex and do not require large investments.

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11.1.8 Near-term actions for stakeholders

Stakeholder Action items

•National and local governments

•Ensure enhanced deployment of advanced biomass cookstoves and biogas systems, as part of a sustained effort to provide universal access to clean energy in developing countries.

•Provide medium and long term targets and support policies that stimulate investment in sustainable bio-energy production and ensure that new, promising conversion technologies reach a commercial stage.

•Progressively eliminate subsidies to fossil fuels, and establish a price for CO2 emissions.

•Ensure increased and sustained RD&D funding to promote cost and efficiency gains for existing and emerging technologies.

•Implement sound sustainability criteria and evaluation methods for bioenergy, based on internationally agreed indicators, building on existing schemes in the forestry and biofuel sectors.

•Set minimum GHG reduction targets and integrate environmental and social criteria for bioenergy heat and power into national support schemes.

•Promote good practices in bioenergy production, particularly with regard to feedstock cultivation.

•Work towards the development of an international market for bioenergy feedstocks by seeking commoditisation of biomass and biomass intermediates through international technical standards and elimination of trade barriers.

•Ensure that bioenergy policies are aligned with related policies for agriculture, forestry and rural development.

•Extend sustainability criteria for biofuels and bioenergy to all biomass products (including food and fibre) to ensure sustainable land use.

•Industry

•Establish commercial-scale plant for torrefaction, pyrolysis and bio-SNG by 2015. Provide small-scale solutions for efficient bioenergy co-generation and trigeneration (power and heat for heating and cooling) technologies.

•Improve feedstock flexibility of processes to allow a broader range of feedstocks and reduce feedstock competition with other sectors.

•Implement credible, independent sustainability certification schemes. Engage in public-private partnerships to support smallholder qualification and participation in bioenergy value chains.

•Establish large-scale field trials and vigorously pursue the development of new, productive feedstocks.

•Universities and other research institutions

•Further improve life-cycle assessment methodology for bioenergy, in particular accounting for indirect land-use change.

•Provide spatial information on land and biomass resources and develop systems to monitor, evaluate and avoid undesired land-use changes.

•Improve economic models based on detailed cost curves for feedstock supply in different regions, to improve analysis of bioenergy potentials.

•Collaborate with industry on large-scale energy crop field trials.

•Develop national bioenergy RD&D roadmaps to identify critical technology breakthroughs needed for sustainable bioenergy production.

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•Non-governmental organisations

•Monitor progress towards sustainable bioenergy development and policy milestones and publish results regularly to keep governments and industry on track.

•Provide objective information on the potential of sustainable bioenergy to mitigate climate change, increase energy security, and provide economic benefits to rural communities.

•Engage in capacity building and implementation of good practices.

•Intergovernmental organisations and multilateral development agencies

•Provide capacity building/training for regulatory frameworks and business models to help developing countries implement sustainable cultivation techniques, feedstock supply and bioenergy conversion.

•Work on development of technical standards for biomass, in particular intermediates, to enhance trade between countries.

•Provide technical support to help developing countries devise and implement certification schemes and bioenergy support policies.

•Promote and facilitate a structured dialogue between policy makers and the round-tables that are developing standards for the certification of bioenergy or bioenergy feedstocks, in order to ensure coherence between regulatory frameworks and standards.

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11.2 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy 27


To address the technical-economic barriers to the further development and accelerated commercial deployment of bioenergy conversion technologies for widespread sustainable exploitation of biomass resources.


To ensure at least 14% bioenergy in the EU energy mix by 2020, and at the same time to guarantee GHG emission savings of 60% for bio-fuels and bio-liquids under the sustainability criteria of the new RES directive.


1. Bring to commercial maturity the currently most promising technologies and value-chains through the development and optimisation of feedstock-flexible thermochemical pathways and biochemical pathways, in order to promote large-scaleLarge single productionunits or large number of smaller units , sustainable production of advanced biofuels and highly efficient heat & power from biomass. This will require scaling up and optimization of process integration, with focus on the improvement of feedstock flexibility, energy and carbon efficiency, capex efficiency, reliability and maintenance of plants.

2. Contribute to a set of activities in the field of biomass feedstock availability assessment, production, management and harvesting in support of the up-scaling of promising technologies. Biomass availability, production and harvesting are not specific to the bioenergy use of biomass and are to be addressed in a coherent effort shared with relevant stakeholders and initiativesLocal and nationalauthorities, farming associations, European Technology Platforms such as Plantsfor the Future and Forestry .

3. Develop a longer term R&D programme to support the Bioenergy industry development beyond 2020.

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12 ENERGY EFFICIENCY SMART CITIES ROADMAPS

12.1 KIC Innoenergy Intelligent Energy Efficient Buildings and Cities Strategy and Roadmap 201328

12.1.1 Market challenges and business drivers

The main technical and market challenges within the theme ‘ Intelligent Energy Efficient Buildings and Cities’ are:

•Reduction of energy demand: new energy efficient and cost-effective components and systems need to be developed and integrated into buildings and energy systems (building shell, HVAC, lighting, energy management). Especially focusing on the existing building stock.

•To enable an effective and wide implementation of renewable energy sources, new integrated and compact storage systems are essential for bridging the gap between demand and supply.

•Integration of electric vehicles and other urban vehicles into the urban and building energy networks.

•Upgrade of the aging energy infrastructure and integration of the different energy carriers at city level.

•To enable an effective and efficient integration of the single components and systems (products and services) developed, test-beds at different scale-levels are needed: component – system – building –network-district – city level. Especially on city level, strong end-user involvement in the concept of living labs is crucial.

•Effective business creation in a highly fragmented and local oriented market.

•Creation of the momentum and transition process for effective roll-out of market ready products and services.

•Effectively up to 3% of the installed based is upgraded or renewed annually.

New business models and services are urgently needed to find solutions for the mismatch in the cost benefit model (the investments and benefits are often not allocated with the same stakeholders, for example in the cases of rented buildings).

12.1.2 Technologies to address those challenges

The roadmap of the theme ‘Intelligent Energy Efficient Buildings and Cities’ is structured along four program lines that interact strongly:

•Local energy supply, conversion and storage

•Energy Efficient Buildings

•Local energy networks within the city

•Intelligent Energy Efficient Cities

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12.1.3 Roadmap: Overview

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12.2 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Smart Cities 29


To demonstrate the feasibility of rapidly progressing towards our energy and climate objectives at a local level while proving to citizens that their quality of life and local economies can be improved through investments in energy efficiency and reduction of carbon emissions. This Initiative will foster the dissemination throughout Europe of the most efficient models and strategies to progress towards a low carbon future.

This Initiative will support cities and regions in taking ambitious and pioneering measures to progress by 2020 towards a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through sustainable use and production of energy. This will require systemic approaches and organisational innovation, encompassing energy efficiency, low carbon technologies and the smart management of supply and demand. In particular, measures on buildings, local energy networks and transport would be the main components of the Initiative.

The Initiative builds on existing EU and national policies and programmes, such as CIVITAS, CONCERTO and Intelligent Energy Europe. It will draw upon the other SET-Plan Industrial Initiatives, in particular the Solar and Electricity Grid, as well as on the EU public-private partnership for Buildings and Green Cars established under the European Economic Plan for Recovery. The local authorities involved in the Covenant of Mayors (more than 4500 cities) will be mobilised around this initiative to multiply its Impact.

12.2.2 Specific objectives

•To trigger a sufficient take-up (reaching 5% of the EU population) of energy efficient and low carbon technologies to unlock the market.

•To reduce by 40% the greenhouse gas (reference year 1990) emissions by 2020, that will demonstrate not only environmental and energy security benefits but also to provide socio-economic advantages in terms of quality of life, local employment and businesses, and citizen empowerment.

•To effectively spread across Europe best practices of sustainable energy concepts at local level, for instance through the Covenant of Majors.

In moving towards these objectives, local authorities will propose and implement holistic problem-solving approaches, integrating the most appropriate technologies and policy measures. This would involve ambitious and pioneer measures in buildings, energy networks and transport.

12.2.3 Buildings:

•New buildings with net zero energy requirements or net zero carbon emissions when averaged over the year by 2015, thus anticipating the requirements of the recast Directive on the energy performance of buildings (EPBD). This requirement could be anticipated (e.g. 2012) for all new buildings of the local public authority (city).

•Refurbish of the existing buildings to bring them to the lowest possible energy consumption levels (e.g. passive house standard or level of efficiency that is justified by age, technology, architectural constrains) maintaining or increase performances and comfort. This would include innovative insulation material (solid insulation, vacuum insulation, vacuum windows, cool roofs, etc.)

12.2.4 Energy networks

Heating and Cooling

•Innovative and cost effective biomass, solar thermal and geothermal applications

•Innovative hybrid heating and cooling systems from biomass, solar thermal, ambient thermal and geothermal with advanced distributed heat storage technologies.

•Highly efficient co- or tri-generation and district heating and cooling systems.

Electricity

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•Smart grids, allowing renewable generation, electric vehicles charging, storage, demand response and grid balancing.

•Smart metering and energy management systems.

•Smart appliances (ICT, domestic appliances), lighting (in particular solid state lighting for street and indoor), equipment (e.g. motor systems, water systems)

•To foster local RES electricity production (especially PV and wind applications).

Transport

•10 - 20 testing and deployment programmes for low carbon public transport and individual transport systems, including smart applications for ticketing, intelligent traffic management and congestion avoidance, demand management, travel information and communication, freight distribution, walking and cycling.

•Sustainable mobility: advanced smart public transport, intelligent traffic management and congestion avoidance, demand management, information and communication, freight distribution, walking and cycling.

•

12.3 EeB PPP Energy Efficient Buildings Roadmap 201030

The Energy-efficient Buildings (EeB) PPP, launched under the European Economic Recovery Plan1, will devote approximately € 1 billion in the period 2010-2013 to address the challenges that the European construction

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sector and its extended value chain are facing in their ambitious goal of researching new methods and technologies to reduce the energy footprint and CO2 emissions related to new and renovated buildings. This represents the initial and highly strategic step of a longer term set by the industry to create more efficient districts and cities while improving the quality of life of European citizens.

12.3.1 Strategic objectives

The construction sector accounts for 30% of industrial employment in the European Union, contributing about 10.4% of the Gross Domestic Product, with 3 million enterprises, 95% of which being SMEs3. Overall 48.9 million workers in the EU depend, directly or indirectly, on the construction sector4

Within the construction market, the buildings industrial sector (residential and non-residential) is the largest economic sector, as their construction and refurbishment account for 80% (€ 1,200 billion) of the total construction sector output (€ 1,519 billion)5 of EU27 in 2007. Every day, the construction sector in the EU builds or renovates thousands of places where people work, live, spend their leisure time or rest. Today, the construction sector is fully aware of a huge responsibility, being the highest energy consumer in the EU (about 40%) and main contributor to GHG emissions (about 36% of the EU’s total CO2 emissions and about half of the CO2 emissions which are not covered by the Emission Trading System). In March 2007, the European Council set clear goals for 2020:

•Increase energy efficiency to achieve a reduction of 20% of total energy use (below 2005 levels);

•20% contribution of Renewable Energies to total energy use (11.5% above 2005 contribution);

•20% reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) below 1990 emissions (14% below 2005 emissions)8.

12.3.2 Key challenges for a long term strategy

In a context of meeting ambitious targets for improving energy independence and for fighting against climate change, the long term goals are surely towards low energy and energy positive buildings/districts which require new knowledge and technologies to overcome current limitations. Nevertheless, several research challenges need to be addressed for a sustainable strategy for energy-efficient buildings, such as:

•Definition of energy-efficient solutions for renovation. Many innovative solutions are directed towards new buildings but only a few are optimised for the existing stock. Moreover, buildings, especially residential buildings, are never considered as a whole. Therefore, there are a lot of components (windows, insulation materials, boilers, lighting, etc.) which are installed, serviced and maintained by different companies without a holistic approach to the overall building operation. The result is a lack of energy efficiency and in some cases functionality once the buildings are refurbished. R&D has to propose integrated solutions taking into account the various constraints of existing buildings. It is assumed that the developments of many innovative solutions (systems composed of insulation and thermal storage materials, renewables, etc.) are relevant for the countries all over Europe.

•There is also a need for acceptability by customers which means that 1) each behavioural strategy must be clear as to the associated technology (e.g. encouraging people to avoid overheating in winter would be supported by effective, intelligible heating controls) and 2) each technology must be thought through in terms of the behavioural correlates (e.g. whether energy-efficient ventilation will actually be used) and opportunities (to encourage behaviour change while delivering the technology). The outcome of research into understanding barriers and drivers for non-technical (e.g. behaviour) and technical aspects, such as the development of multifunctional solutions (e.g. eco-efficiency, comfort, aesthetic value...), would speed up the transformation of the market. Cost savings can also help greatly in supporting the development of the energy efficiency market. Price being one of the major drivers for the customers, R&D together with deployment has to reduce drastically the cost of certain technologies (market of hundreds of thousand of units), such as heat pumps, photovoltaics or emerging lighting solutions, to name a few. There is also a large potential for an increase of performance from the economic and CO2 point of view. Heat pumps have an operational coefficient of performance of around 3 today, and they could move to 4 and higher in the coming years. Furthermore, as example, an additional 30-40% energy saving for lighting could be achieved by adding intelligence to modern systems.

•Market transformation shall indeed be researched and investigated. Low carbon technologies have to move from a several-hundred-thousands to a multimillion-unit-per-year market. Financing issues also need to be tackled, jointly implementing new business models and services with a life cycle perspective.

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•Building industry transformation has to be achieved. The gaps are on systemic approaches for refurbishment, building design and quality of installation. Due to the complexity of the situation (different components to be assembled in order to minimise the investment, the running cost and the CO2 emission), there is a real need to develop new codes, and to provide new tools and guidelines to the building industry. There is also a need to develop solutions suitable for use by the construction industry: affordable packaged soolutions or kits which are easy to install. Europe will thus develop a competitive industry, from component manufacturers to installers and a broader range of knowledge-based service providers.

•Obligations and incentives might be successful in producing results, but, for a more effective strategy in Europe, the Regulators and the Companies should address R&D innovation in combination with marketing efforts and information campaigns: “From Obligations & Incentives to Information & Innovation”.

Research challenges at the basis of a multi-annual Roadmap

1. Refurbishment to transform existing buildings into energy-efficient buildings.

2. Neutral/Energy-positive new buildings.

3. Energy-efficient districts/communities.

4. Horizontal technological aspects.

5. Horizontal organisational aspects.

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12.4 IEA Renewable Heating & Cooling 201131


Solar heating and cooling (SHC) can provide low-carbon emission energy from solar resources that are widespread throughout the world. SHC describes a wide range of technologies, from mature domestic hot water heaters to those just entering the demonstration phase, such as solar thermally driven cooling. This roadmap envisages development and deployment of solar heating and cooling by 2050 to produce 16.5 EJ (4 583 TWhth; 394 Mtoe) solar heating annually, more than 16% of total final energy use for low temperature heat, and 1.5 EJ solar cooling, nearly 17% of total energy use for cooling by that time. It would include the following contributions:

•Solar collectors for hot water and space heating could reach an installed capacity of nearly 3 500 GWth, satisfying annually around 8.9 EJ of energy demand for hot water and space heating in the building sector by 2050. Solar hot water and space heating accounts for 14% of space and water heating energy use by that time.

•Solar collectors for low-temperature process heat in industry (<120°C) could reach an installed capacity of 3 200 GWth, producing around 7.2 EJ solar heat per year by 2050. Solar process heat accounts for 20% of energy use for low temperature industrial heat by that time.

•Solar heat for cooling could reach a contribution of 1.5 EJ per year from an installed capacity of more than 1 000 GWth for cooling, accounting for nearly 17% of energy use for cooling in 2050.

•Swimming pool heating could reach an installed capacity of 200 GWth, producing annually around 400 PJ solar heat by 2050.

•By achieving the above mentioned deployment levels, solar heating and cooling can avoid some 800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 emissions per year by 2050.

•Achieving this roadmap’s vision requires a rapid expansion of solar hot water heating in the building sector, including in solar supported district heating, as well as in industrial applications. Dedicated policy support should overcome barriers related to information failures, split incentives and high up-front investments.

•While a number of industrial and agricultural processes can use low-temperature flat-plate collectors, advanced flat-plate collectors and concentrating technology should be further

•developed to produce medium-temperature heat. Industrial process heat offers enormous potential in sectors that use low- and medium- temperature heat for processes such as washing, leaching (mining industry), drying of agricultural products, pre-heating of boiler feed water, pasteurisation and cooking.

•The development of compact storage will allow heat to be used when the load is required, aiding the deployment of solar space heating in individual buildings. Dedicated research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources could make compact storage commercially viable between 2020 and 2030.

•Solar cooling could avoid the need for additional electricity transmission capacity caused by higher average peak loads from the rapidly increasing cooling demand in many parts of the world. It can also allow for a more optimal use of solar energy applications for domestic hot water, space heating and cooling. With substantially higher RD&D resources, standardised, cost competitive and reliable solar cooling systems could enter the market between 2015 and 2020.

Key actions

•Concerted action by all stakeholders is critical to realise the vision laid out in this roadmap. In order to stimulate investment, governments must take the lead role in creating a favourable investment climate for widespread use of solar heating and cooling. In particular, governments should:

•Create a stable, long-term policy framework for solar heating and cooling; establish medium- term targets to maximise the effective use of mature and nearly mature technologies, and long-term targets for advanced technologies that have yet to reach the market.

•Introduce differentiated economic incentives on the basis of competitiveness per technology by means of transparent and predictable frameworks to bridge competitive gaps. Incentives could for example be based on

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feed- in tariffs or renewable portfolio standards for commercial heat and subsidies or tax incentives for end-user technologies. Economic incentive schemes should be independent of state budget procedures to avoid “stop-and-go” policies where, for example, sudden withdrawal of incentives can destabilise the market.

•Address barriers such as information failures, up-front investment of technologies, lack of quality standards and the ‘split-incentive’ problem (where the investor in SHC technology does not reap the benefits of reduced energy costs). This can be done through awareness raising campaigns, industry training and education, support for new business models and modified regulations.

•Provide RD&D funding and support mechanisms to enable promising pre- commercial solar heating and cooling technologies to reach high volume commercial production within the next 10 years.

•In developing countries, expand the efforts of multilateral and bilateral aid organisations to accelerate the deployment of mature and competitive solar heating and cooling technologies, addressing both economic and non-economic barriers.

12.4.2 Solar resources

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12.4.3 Costs of solar heating and cooling (USD/MWhth)

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12.4.4 Deployment of solar heating and cooling to 2050

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12.4.5 Technology development: actions and milestones. Solar heat

This roadmap recommends the following actions:

Milestone timeline Stakeholder

Integrate solar collectors in building surfaces.

2012-20 (Develop new integrated building products by 2020)

Research institutes, SHC industry, architects/ building industry

Use alternative materials, technologies and manufacturing techniques for system cost reduction and performance improvement.

2015-20 (30% system cost reduction by 2020) Research institutes, SHC industry

Address challenges in system design by development of standardised kits and plug-and-function systems.

2012-20 SHC industry

Expand development of collectors that cover temperature gap between 100°C and 250°C.

2012-20 Research institutes/universities, SHC industry

Address challenges in development of medium to large-scale systems by developing pre-engineered solutions and improving system design knowledge.

2012-20 SHC industry

12.4.6 Technology development: actions and milestones. Concentrating solar for heat applications

This roadmap recommends the following actions: Milestone timeline Stakeholder

Adapt concentrating solar technology for heat applications (smaller scale, adjustable temperature levels and building integrated solutions).

2012-20 (2020: concentrating solar technology for heat market mature)

Research institutes/universities, SHC industry

Develop and standardise system integration concepts for solar heat in industrial processes.

2012-30 Research institutes, SHC industry, heating industry (e.g. boiler manufacturers), facility management providers

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12.4.7 Technology development: actions and milestones. Solar heat for cooling


Increase thermal COP and electric efficiency of solar thermally driven cooling systems (COPel), including developing new cycles and storage.

2012-20 (2020: COPel >10 for the whole system) Research institutes, SHC industry, cooling industry

Address challenges in system design by developing standardised kit solutions and plug-and-function systems.

2012-20 (2020: standardised solar thermally driven cooling technology commercially available)

SHC industry, cooling industry

Develop small scale thermally driven solar cooling technology for single family and multi-family dwellings.

2015-25 (2025: small and medium scale residential solar thermally driven cooling technology commercially available)

Research institutes, SHC industry, cooling industry

Develop integrated thermally driven solar cooling and heating technology, including compact storage.

2015-30 (2017: first systems demonstrated 2030: integrated solar thermally driven cooling and heating tech. [incl. compact storage] commercially available)

Research institutes, SHC industry, cooling industry

Explore potential for retrofitting existing vapour compression systems into solar thermally driven cooling.

2020-30 Research institutes, SHC industry, cooling industry

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12.4.8 Technology development: actions and milestones. Thermal storage


Continue developing promising materials for compact thermal energy storage, particularly phase change materials, sorption and thermochemical materials. Validate stability of materials and performance characteristics. Create linkages with other sectors, for instance R&D into thermal storage for CSP and industrial processes.

2012-25 (2020: small scale low cost compact thermal heat storage available with target storage density 1 000 MJ/m3)

Research institutes/universities, chemical industry

Research new materials for medium-temperature storage, between 100°C and 300°C, such as phase change, sorption and thermochemical materials. Demonstrate systems in which the new storage technologies are integrated.

2012-20 (2018: first systems demonstrated in a number of sectors)

Research institutes, SHC industry

12.4.9 Technology development: actions and milestones. Hybrid applications and advanced technologies


Develop PV-T technology to make it commercially viable.

2012-20 (2020: PV-T commercially available) Research institutes, SHC industry, PV industry

Evaluate the performance of current hybrid solar systems incorporating heat pumps and develop these into kit systems for both heating and cooling with an overall electrical COP>5.

2012-20 (2015: Solar heat pump hybrid kit systems commercially available)

SHC industry

Evaluate performance of current hybrid solar systems incorporating biomass boilers and develop these into kit systems.

2012-20 (2015: Solar biomass hybrid kit systems commercially available)

SHC industry

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12.5 RHC Platform Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for Renewable Heating & Cooling32

In 2008 the European Commission (EC) supported the establishment the European Technology Platform on Renewable Heating and Cooling (RHC-Platform) with the aim to create a common framework within which European industry and research stakeholders can define technological research needs and strategic priorities to increase the use of renewable energy sources (RES) for heating and cooling and to consolidate EU technological leadership.

The RHC-Platform has produced the present Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for Renewable Heating and Cooling (RHC-SRA), a key document which addresses the short, medium and longer term R&D needs in the field of renewable heating and cooling technologies and puts together the strategic research priorities identified for Biomass, Geothermal, Solar Thermal and Cross Cutting Technologies.

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12.5.1 RHC Strategic objectives

Clusters of key research and innovation areas by technology type

Potential Contribution Key research and innovation areas by 2020

Biomass By 2020: 124 Mtoe By 2050: 231 Mtoe

Small scale CHP for domestic, industrial or regional solutions.

Tri-generation.

Advanced fuels (new solid biocommodities, thermally treated biomass fuels, pyrolysis oil) replacing coal and fossil oil in CHP.

High efficient large-scale or industrial steam CHP with increased high temperature heat potential (up to 600°C).

Solar Thermal By 2020: 13 Mtoe By 2050: 133 Mtoe

New materials, designs, and manufacturing technologies for solar thermal collectors.

Reducing costs of high solar fraction systems, multi-functional solar façade systems and solar based hybrid systems covering the full heating load.

Optimised heating systems for “Solar-Active-Houses” and highly efficient solar-assisted cooling systems.

Improved low to high temperature solar thermal solutions for industrial processes using optimised large-scale collector arrays.

Geothermal By 2020: 10.5 Mtoe By 2050: 150 Mtoe

Integration of design of the shallow geothermal system and building energy system with regard to optimum thermal use and operational strategy.

Optimisation of components such as borehole heat exchangers, well completion materials, compressors, pumps etc., including improved drilling methods.

Innovative exploration, drilling and production methods for deep geothermal resources, including related surface installations, for reducing overall cost and risks caused by geological uncertainties.

Reducing cost and increasing the lifetime of Enhanced Geothermal Systems - EGS (focus on exploration, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, formation treating, reservoir predictive models, and heat production).

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Cross-cutting Energy saving potential by 2020:

Industrial heat pumps: 20 Mtoe

District Heating: 50.7Mtoe / year

District Cooling: 5.5 Mtoe / year

Efficiency increase for heat pump technology (both electrically-driven and thermally-driven applications).

R&D to make available integrated, flexible, highly efficient

R&D to increase storage density using phase change materials and thermochemical materials.

Development of advanced algorithms for optimal planning, management and control of hybrid systems.

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12.5.2 Synoptic tables of research and innovation priorities by RHC technology type

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13 SMART GRIDS ROADMAPS

13.1 SET PLAN Technology Roadmap: Smart GRIDS 33. ETP Smart Grids Roadmap 201234

In 2007 the European Technology Platform (ETP) for the Electricity Networks of the Future presented its Strate- gic Research Agenda (SRA) on SmartGrids. Considering insights from research institutes, industry, regulators and utilities, the document identified the main areas requiring investigation in the short and medium term in Europe. Since then, it served as a decisive input to the European Electricity Grid Initiative (EEGI), laying out SmartGrids RD&D needs to achieve the EU’s 20-20-20 targets by 2020.

The goal of this new SmartGrids SRA 2035 consists in determining longer term research and innovation activities, necessary for electricity networks and intelligent electric systems by 2035 and contributing to the EU’s envisioned CO2 reduction of minimally 80% by 2050. These activities should start NOW to enable a smooth transition from today – via progress achieved through the EEGI and other SET plan initiatives by 2020 – towards an optimal smart energy system with flexibility in demand and generation by 2035. Similar to the previous SRA, the SRA 2035 is a strategic document. It could serve as key input to the next EU Framework Programme for research and innovation – starting in 2014 – as well as other SmartGrids RD&D initiatives both on national and European level.

13.1.1 Key drivers and challenges

Ensure that by 2035, Europe’s electricity networks continue to function in a manner that optimises cost and environmental performance without giving up traditionally high security and quality of supply, while hosting a very large and further increasing penetration of renewable generation.

Provide a clear framework, goals and objectives for the research community and all stakeholders to focus today on issues towards the SmartGrids systems of 2035.

The core challenges and possible barriers in this move towards an intelligent electricity supply system by 2035 are:

Electro-Technologies

•For enhanced controllability of the electricity system quality and security of supply requirements and associated system states: flexible electricity consumption technology is necessary to increase the flexibility of electricity consumption in place and time. As many technologies as possible should serve the goal of a better electricity load-generation balancing at any time and in flexible geographic aggregations combined with improved security handling of grid system constraints.

•For electricity storage components and storage control technology to handle the volatility of renewable based electricity generation.

•For secure long-distance transmission of bulk electricity in meshed grids: switchable HVDC technology for meshed HVDC grids is key to securely transport the excess of physical renewable based generation in the coastal areas from wind and in the southern areas of Europe from solar power to load areas without efficient renewable based generation.

•For improved materials: more robust, flexible and cost effective materials for grid components in the context of the new SmartGrids systems are critical. They must prevent a sudden malfunction of the overall system; and in case a failure of a grid component occurs, immediate and often automatic actions must be possible for system healing, providing to critical system users a permanent availability of grid products and services.

ICT (Information and Communication) Technologies

•For better monitoring, metering: sensors, communication technology and distributed real-time computing platforms will be key technologies to monitor, meter the various electric equipment and system state parameters critical for determination of the current state of the SmartGrids. This captured information will be used as input

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for many types of model predictive algorithms whose output supports decisions to achieve the goals of the SmartGrids 2035.

•For an appropriate control structure to stabilize a grid with limited mechanical inertia, with an architecture based on an appropriate combination of central and decentralized control.

•For better predictive models and algorithms: improved computer based models and algorithms will be needed of the grid elements themselves such as transmission and distribution lines, voltage and current transformers, flexible AC and DC elements, switches and breakers, shunts, protection equipment but also of all grid users including generators, storage, consumer equipment and behaviour.

•A software architecture allowing consumers and market players to compose new services and to satisfy own requirements related to energy services and products thereby using also market interfaces and at the same time supporting the quality and security of supply of the grid based electricity system.

EEGI (European Electricity Grid Initiative) Compatibility

•For smooth evolution of grid systems from today via 2020 towards the year 2035.

•To avoid developments before 2020 that are not compatible with developments needed in the 2035 perspective, close contacts with the EEGI are needed.

Legal frameworks, market structures

•For stakeholder business investment rules: legal frameworks must set the rules for stakeholders both on European and on national levels. The question which stakeholders and their businesses shall be regulated as natural monopoly and which stakeholders shall be based on competitive market rules within a given legal framework is critical. What are the mandated tasks of each stakeholder? What unbundling rules must be satisfied by each stakeholder? How are legal frameworks adapted knowing that the set of stakeholders could change dramatically?

•For natural monopoly cost and tariff rules: rules are necessary for using the natural monopoly products and services. Legal frameworks must set the rules for tariffs based on regulated, incentive based costs for the electricity grid itself (where not a market based merchant investment is introduced), and for ancillary services where not market based approaches are used. This includes the questions which stakeholders shall pay for which parts of the costs based on which rules.

•For market-based pricing for goods and services under constrained systems: legal frameworks for market rules and associated pricing principles must be designed which handle the fact that the SmartGrids based systems by 2035 will be operated and planned under temporal, physical, thermal, environmental and social constraints, often coming from the natural monopoly based grid infrastructure. Pricing principles for goods and services must be determined which can handle these constraints so that financial rents can be used to remove constraints and to compensate those being penalized by them.

Socio-Economic incentives

•For changed energy consumption behaviour: citizens with individual living habits and businesses with primary business goals other than energy and electricity products and services will need to adapt their behaviour. To achieve the right behavioural change there must be a balance between voluntary change and change mandated through legal framework rules. Legal frameworks must be found which induce change, either by incentives for the individual stakeholders to change bottom-up or mandated top-down.

•For democratic processes towards decisions about electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure: citizens have individual views on being exposed to the physical infrastructure necessary for the SmartGrids by 2035. The new SmartGrids based system by 2035 will need new infrastructures with new consequences for citizens. Legal frameworks must be found which allow the decision making for installing new and changing present infrastructures for enabling the SmartGrids 2035.

The research and development of “Legal Frameworks” and “Socio-Economic incentives” are not at the core of the SRA 2035 which concentrates on SmartGrids technology. However, the SRA 2035 considers the interface and system integration question related to these topics as very important.

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13.1.2 SmartGrids 2035 Technological Priorities

The SmartGrids Technology Platform with this SmartGrids SRA 2035 concentrates its analyses on SmartGrids technology. In addition to the SmartGrids technology innovation, the following technological priorities for RD&D to support the SmartGrids systems 2035 are proposed:

•Small- to medium-scale distributed storage systems for distributions systems exposed to a massive penetration of renewable electricity generation, with the consequence of short- and medium terms deficiencies or excesses of renewable power and, as a consequence, quickly changing local flows that create congestions and endanger system security.

•Real-time energy use metering and system state monitoring systems to increase the real-time knowledge of on-going processes (voltage, flows, short circuit, etc.) and to be able to derive critical system control measures, both ahead of possible and after real incidences (“self-healing”), especially in the electricity distribution systems but also in the potential HVDC based transmission grid layer.

•Grid modelling technologies

•To design and demonstrate the new HVDC and adapted HVAC transmission systems, the adapted AC medium and low voltage distribution and the new DC consumer home grids and systems.

•To monitor in real-time the ageing of present electricity materials and cost-efficiently signal predictive maintenance, repair and replacement times.

•To predict in ahead of delivery up to real-time the generation output of a massive amount of volatile, intermittent generators and the demand of many flexible electricity consumers.

•Communication technologies

•To enable the secure exchange of information among the many new involved stakeholders for an efficient, secure, low-cost and sustainable electricity system operation at the transmission system down to the consumer (prosumer) of electricity products and services.

•To enable small-scale islanded systems (short-term or in general without connection to the synchronized European power system) to securely handle distributed, renewable based generators and flexible electricity consumers and to securely connect to and disconnect from the synchronized European power system.

•Protection systems for distributions systems exposed to a massive penetration of renewable based electricity generation with the consequence of new patterns of distribution system flows towards the transmission systems endangering the security of supply.

•Non-technological issues with direct impact on technologies

To analyze financial issues for scenarios of SmartGrids 2035 systems and technologies, including investment costs, financial benefits, social welfare analyses, regulated tariffs and market based prices. To define adapted legal frameworks for security and quality of electricity supply, electricity and CO2- markets and a legislation procedure for the infrastructure assuming new stakeholder roles and obligations.

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13.1.3 The SRA 2035 Research Areas with tasks and research topics

For each of the research areas (RA), the SRA 2035 defined research topics which can be mapped to research tasks. Research tasks often cover more than one research topic. Both research tasks and research topics have been associated to a main research area IS, D, T, T&D, RC and SE 35.

35 IS (Integrated Systems)

D (Distribution Systems)

RC (Retail and Consumers)

SE (Socio-Economics)

T (Transmission Systems)

T&D (Transmission and Distribution Systems)

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13.2 KIC Innoenergy Smart Grids Roadmap36

13.2.1.1 Market challenges and business drivers

The drivers for a smarter energy system can be summarized as a major change in the in the generation patterns as well as the change in the usage patterns of electricity. This requires an adoption of the grids to in the following ways:

•Allow integration of renewable generation both at centralized and decentralized locations.

•The energy system must be able to manage the variability in renewable generation by storage or sharing of remote resources by improved transmission.

•The energy system must be flexible enough to accept decentralized generation at all voltage levels in the system.

•Prepare the grid for new ways of using electricity

•Increase the security of supply in the European Energy System

•This means allowing much higher penetration of European domestic generation

•Create a more fault tolerant electric grid

•Empower customers

•By allowing local generation

•By introducing market designs that allow customers to act on market signals

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13.2.2 Roadmap: Smart Distribution Networks

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13.2.3 Roadmap: Smart Transmission Networks

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13.2.4 Roadmap: Storage as a Tool for Network Flexibility

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14 REFERENCES

•IEA. World energy Outlook 2013. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2013/

•IRENA. Africa Renewable Future. The Path to Sustainable Growth. The Road to a Renewable Future. http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=276

•SCIENCE IN AFRICA. UNESCO’S CONTRIBUTION AFRICA’S PLAN FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO 2010. http://www.unesco.org/science/science_africa.shtml

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Energy Efficiency - Tunisia 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/tunisia-energy-efficiency-country-profile

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Energy Efficiency - Morocco 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/morocco-energy-efficiency-country-profile

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Energy Efficiency - Algeria 20123.http://www.rcreee.org/content/algeria-energy-efficiency-country-profile

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Renewable Energy - Tunisia 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/tunisia-renewable-energy-country-profile

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Renewable Energy - Morocco 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/morocco-renewable-energy-country-profile

•RCREEE. Country Profile - Renewable Energy - Algeria 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/algeria-renewable-energy-country-profile

•RCREEE. Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Tunisia. http://www.rcreee.org/content/country-report-tunisia

•RCREEE. Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Morocco. http://www.rcreee.org/content/country-report-morocco

•RCREEE. Energy Data and Indicators For RCREEE Member States 2013. http://www.rcreee.org/content/energy-data-indicators-rcreee-member-states

•RCREEE Energy efficiency indicators in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. Regional report October 2012. http://www.rcreee.org/content/energy-efficiency-indicators-southern-and-eastern-mediterranean-countries

•RCREEE .Arab Future Energy IndexTM(AFEX) Energy Efficiency 2013. http://www.rcreee.org/projects/arab-future-energy-index™-afex

•ANME. Plan d’action de développement des energies renouvelables en Tunisie. http://www.anme.nat.tn/index.php?id=3

•MEDPRO – Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/projects/467_en.html

•IRESEN http://www.iresen.org/index.php

•Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Program March 2011. Ministère de l’énergie et des mines (Algeria). SATINFO Société du Groupe Sonelgaz. http://portail.cder.dz/IMG/pdf/Renewable_Energy_and_Energy_Efficiency_Algerian_Program_EN.pdf

•Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne. EWI Working Paper, No. 10/02. The renewable energy targets of the Maghreb countries: Impact on electricity supply and conventional power markets. http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikationen/Working_Paper/EWI_WP_10-02_Renewable-Energy-Maghreb.pdf

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15 IEA AND EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS LINKS

•TR01- IEA Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy. 2013. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,43771,en.html

•TR02- IEA Technology Roadmap Solar photovoltaic energy. 2010. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,3902,en.html

•TR03- IEA Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power. 2010 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,3903,en.html

•TR04- IEA. Oceans. OES. ANNUAL REPORT 2012/ IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENT ON OCEAN ENERGY SYSTEMS. http://www.iea.org/media/openbulletin/OES2012.pdf

•TR05- IEA Technology Roadmap Bioenergy for Heat and Power 2012. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,27281,en.html

•TR06- IEA Technology Roadmap Solar Heating and Cooling 2012. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,28277,en.html

•TR07- IEA Technology Roadmap Smart Grids 2011. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,3972,en.html

•TR08- SET PLAN Technology roadmaps. http://setis.ec.europa.eu/set-plan-implementation/technology-roadmaps

•TR09- European Ocean Energy Roadmap 2010 - 2050. http://www.erec.org/fileadmin/erec_docs/Documents/Publications/European%20Ocean%20Energy%20Roadmap_2010.pdf

•TR10- European Ocean Energy Association. Industry vision paper 2013. http://www.oceanenergy-europe.eu/images/Publications/European_Ocean_Energy-Industry_Vision_Paper_2013.pdf

•TR11- ENERGY-EFFICIENT BUILDINGS PPP MULTI-ANNUAL ROADMAP AND LONGER TERM STRATEGY. https://ec.europa.eu/eip/raw-materials/en/community/document/ppp-energy-efficient-buildings-multi-annual-roadmap-and-longer-term-strategy

•TR12 Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda or the Renewable Heating and Cooling (RHC). http://www.rhc-platform.org/publications/

•TR13- SmartGrids SRA 2035. Strategic Research Agenda 2012.http://www.smartgrids.eu/documents/sra2035.pdf

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16 KIC INNOENERGY ROADMAPS

•ANNEX TR14- KIC InnoEnergy Thematic Field Renewable Energies. http://cip2014.kic-innoenergy.com/thematic-roadmaps/

•ANNEX TR15- KIC Innoenergy Intelligent Energy Efficient Buildings and Cities Strategy and Roadmap. http://cip2014.kic-innoenergy.com/thematic-roadmaps/

•ANNEX TR16- KIC Innoenergy Smart Grids and Electric Storage Strategy and Roadmap. http://cip2014.kic-innoenergy.com/thematic-roadmaps/

Government & Nonprofit

Mapping of existing RE&EE roadmaps energy efficiency