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Energy Technology Roadmaps
GSE, Rome, 8 July 2010
Paolo FranklHead, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
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Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
OECD/IEA - 2010
Decarbonising the power sector
a new age of electrification?
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with
CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricitysector.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 Baseline2050 BLUEMap2050
BLUEHighNuclear2050 BLUEHighRen2050
PWh
Other
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
BiomassandwasteHydro
Nuclear
Naturalgas+CCSNaturalgasOil
Coal+CCS
Coal
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IEARoadmap
Status
2009releases
Wind Electric/pluginhybrid
vehicles
Carboncapture
&
storage
Cement
2010releases
Solarphotovoltaic
Concentratingsolarpower
Nuclearpower
Biofuels
Efficientheatingandcoolinginbuildings
Smartgrids
Vehicleefficiency
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Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps7/9/2010
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Joint IEA/NEA Nuclear Roadmap released mid-June
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Conclusions
IEASolar
Roadmaps
Stablegovernmentpoliciesonnucleariskey
Enhance
public
dialoguetoinformstakeholdersaboutthe
roleofnuclearinenergystrategy
Financing nuclearisamajorchallenge
Establish
legal
frameworks
and
institutions
in
countries
wheretheydonotexist
Makeprogressinimplementingplansforpermanent
disposalofhighlevelwastes
Inthelongerterm,GENIVtechnologiescouldreducecosts,improveperformanceandsecurity
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CarbonCapture
andStorage
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CCStechnologydeploymenttargets
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CapturedCO2
(MtCO2
/yr)
OECDPACIFIC
USA
OTHEROECDNAM
OECD
EUROPEODA
ME
INDIA
EEU+FSU
CSA
CHINA
AFR
2020
100 projects
OECD(50%)
NonOECD(50%)
2030
850projects
OECD(49%)
NonOECD(51%)
2050
3,400 projects
OECD(35%)
NonOECD(65%)
2040
2,100projects
OECD(40%)
NonOECD(60%)
2015
18 projects
OECD(72%)
NonOECD(28%)
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TechnologyRoadmap
Windenergy
OECD/IEA2009
Wind
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Regionalproductionofwindelectricityinthe
ETP2008
BLUE
Map
scenario
LeadingmarketsovertheperiodareChina,OECDEuropeandtheUnitedStates.OECDPacificcountriesgainimportanceafter2020,and
CentralandSouthAmericaafter2030.
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Grid
integration
of
wind
power
Anoffshoregridmaybe
moreefficientthanaseriesofoneoff
transmissionlinkups,
whileinterconnecting
larger
markets.
Managinggrid
integration key Increaseflexibility
ofpowersystems
Flexiblesupply
Storage
Interconnections
Demandside
response
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Scenarios &
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OECD/IEA - 2010
IEA Elect r ic and Plug - in
H yb r i d
Vehic le Roadmap
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OECD/IEA - 2010
BLUE Map EV/ PHEV sales
trajectory to 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PassengerLDVSales(million) Electric
DieselPlugin
Gasoline Plugin
2050: 100 mi l l ion: e.g. 400 models se l l ing 250,000 eac
h
2030: 30 m i l l ion:e.g. 150 models se l l ing 200,000 eac
h
Annual sa les target s :2020: 7 m i l l ion:e.g. 70 mod els sel
l ing 100,000 eac h
Key factors to achieve these targets: Battery costs down to USD
300/kWh for EVs by
2015
Coordinated development of infrastructure, e.g. inlarge
metropolitan areas
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TRANSPORT,
ENERGY
AND CO2
MovingToward
Sustainability
OECD/IEA 2010
Low-carbon energy technologyroadmaps
Solar PVTechnology
Roadmap
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PVDeploymentTrends
Country MW
Germany 3800
Italy 730
Japan 484
US 475
CzechRep 411
New additions2009 (prelim data EPIA)
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Solar
PV
Vision
PVcouldprovide5%ofglobalelectricitygenerationin2030,11%in2050
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Retail electricity prices
PVDeploymentand
Competitivenesslevels
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Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
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Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
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CSPcostsandglobaloutput
Competitionforpeakandmidpeakloads
Competitionforbaseload
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TheCSPRoadmap:2050
Consumption
Production
2050:Adetailedregionalassessment withsomeHVDClines
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IEA
Solar
Roadmaps Solarelectricitycouldrepresentupto20%to
25%ofglobalelectricityproductionby2050
Producingupto9000TWhperyear Savingalmost6billiontonnesCO2
peryear
Thisdecadecrucialforeffectivepoliciestoenable
the
development
of
solar
electricity
PVandCSPrathercomplementary toeachother
Needtoplanandinvestingridinfrastructure
SmartgridsforPV,HVDCtransmissionlinesforCSP
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Conclusions
IEAEnergy
Technology
Roadmaps
AdditionaltoolusingresultsofETPBluescenarios
Engagecrosssectionofstakeholders
Identifybarriers technical,regulatory,policy,
financial,
public
acceptance Developimplementationactionitems forstakeholders
Outreach activitiesstarting
InternationalLow
carbon
energy
technology
platform
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OECD/IEA2009
[email protected]
www.iea.org/roadmaps
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OECD/IEA - 2010
ANNEX
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OECD/IEA - 2010
GDP projects
(% per year based on purchasing power parity)
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Crude oil price
Impact of CO2 price on costs for crude oil:2020 ( 50 USD/t):
90+21 =111 USD/bbl2030 (110 USD/t): 90+43 =133 USD/bbl2050 (175
USD/t): 70+73 =143 USD/bbl
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Do
llarsperbarrel
Real ($2008) BaselineScenario
Real ($2008)BLUE Map Scenario
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OECD/IEA - 2010
Oil, gas and coal price assumptions
For the BLUE Scenario (in USD per unit)
For the Baseline Scenario (in USD per unit)
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Carbon Price in the BLUE Map
scenario
USD / t CO2 2020 2030 2050
OECD 50 110 175
Non-OECD 0 65 175
