Energy Technology Roadmaps Cecilia Tam 18 June 2012 · Energy technology roadmaps 6 ° C Scenario –business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies 2 ° C Scenario

Introduction to

Energy

© OECD/IEA 2012

Energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2012


Energy

Technology

Roadmaps

Cecilia Tam

18 June 2012

Overview

• Global context for energy technology

roadmaps

• About technology roadmaps

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• About technology roadmaps

• How-to-guide: roadmap process

• Examples of IEA roadmaps

Key technologies for reducing global CO2

emissions

6°C Scenario emissions 58 Gt ------------>

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� 6°C Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies

� 2°C Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050 through CO2-price and strong policies

Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

2°C Scenario emissions 16 Gt ------------>

ABOUT TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS

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ABOUT TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS

Technology roadmaps provide answers

• Where is technology today?

• GW installed capacity/kWh of savings

• Leading countries/regions

• Cost, efficiency

• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?

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• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?

• Use International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE

Map scenarios

• What are the priority near-term actions?

• R&D gaps and how to fill them

• Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome them

• Market requirements and policy needs

• Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs

Technology roadmaps status

2009 20112010 2012 / 2013

•Bioenergy for heat and power

•Vehicle Fuel Economy

•Solar heating and cooling

•High efficiency,

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low emissions coal

•Chemical catalysis

•Hydropower

•Energy-efficient

building

envelopes

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HOW-TO GUIDE: ROADMAP PROCESS

Energy technology roadmaps guide

• Guide published in 2010 by

IEA

– Understanding roadmaps

– Roadmap development

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– Roadmap development

process

– Tailoring the roadmap

process

http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2291

Roadmap logic

• Goal to achieve

• Milestones to be met

• Gaps to be filled

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• Gaps to be filled

• Actions to overcome

gaps and barriers

• What and when things

need to be achieved

Roadmap process outline

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Baseline data

Situation analysis of key factors:

• Technologies:

– Current status of costs and performance

– Technology readiness

– Market penetration and limitations

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– Market penetration and limitations

• Markets:

– Suppliers, distributors and customers

– Energy characteristics (production, delivery, storage and consumption)

– Environmental impacts (air, water and land impacts)

• Public policies:

– Current status and requirements of relevant, existing laws and regulations

Planning and Preparation

• Who will set roadmap goals? Who will be

responsible for developing the roadmap?

• How much time is available to develop the

roadmap? What is the timeframe of the roadmap?

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roadmap? What is the timeframe of the roadmap?

• What skills and tools will be needed?

• Are appropriate data and analytic tools available?

• Is sufficient personnel available to manage and

implement the roadmap development process?

Visioning

• What is the status of the technology today?

• What data are needed to establish baseline, set

goals, targets, forecasts?

• Are essential analytic capabilities and tools available

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• Are essential analytic capabilities and tools available

to evaluate alternative scenarios?

• Technology performance and limitations?

• What supporting information and data are needed?

Roadmap Development

• Which private entities will be key to success?

• Will goals and milestones include date-based,

quantitative targets?

• What information must be included?

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• What information must be included?

• What level of detail is needed for effective

implementation and action?

• Will activities be assigned to organisations for

action?

Managing engagement

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Expert judgment and consensus:

roadmap workshops

• Structured vision and technology roadmap

workshops can:

– Build consensus on goals and targets

– Evaluate and verify assumptions

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– Evaluate and verify assumptions

– Identify technical and institutional barriers

– Define alternative technology

pathways

– Develop implementation

strategies and priorities

Roadmap implementation and

revision phase• Launch the roadmap

– Wide range of launch options, from simple email

announcement to formal press conferences

• Begin implementation

Start projects aimed at highest-priority actions

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– Start projects aimed at highest-priority actions

• Monitor progress and adjust the roadmap

– Track activities and results; revise every 1-5 years

• Manage expectations

– Roadmap will not be implemented exactly as written

Tailoring the roadmap process

• Six considerations when designing a roadmap

process:

– Stakeholder participation

– Resource constraints

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– Resource constraints

– Critical inputs

– Roadmap design

– Buy-in and dissemination

– Monitoring and tracking

IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES

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IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES

Photovoltaic (PV) Roadmap

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Energy technology roadmaps7/6/2012

PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Roadmap

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�Consumption

�Production

2050: A detailed regional assessment – with some HVDC lines

Solar PV roadmap example:

technology performance milestones

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Lessons learned

• IEA roadmaps having a clear impact

– Informing initiatives, policies, debate

• Implementation requires further effort

– Partnering with industry organisations, Clean Energy

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– Partnering with industry organisations, Clean Energy

Ministerial (CEM) initiatives, others

• National roadmaps can support implementation

• Strong interest from developing countries to use

IEA roadmap methodology

China wind roadmap

• 1 000 GW of wind,

17% of electricity production in 2050

•Cumulative investment of USD 600 billion

by 2030 and USD 1,9 tn by 2050

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by 2030 and USD 1,9 tn by 2050

•CO2 savings of 1,5 Gt and reduction of 660

m tce

•Two possible pathways developed for

transmission

Cement in India Roadmap

In consultation with

India Cement Technology Roadmap partners

29

Principal supporter Industry supporters

A final thought

• Roadmaps can be powerful tools for -

– aligning interests and skills of diverse stakeholders;

– identifying steps and timing needed to achieve a

chosen future;

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chosen future;

– generating buy-in and support that leads to real

action

– monitoring progress against stated milestones and

adjusting the plan as needed

For more information

• Download the guide:

http://www.iea.org/papers/roadmaps/guide.pdf

• Contact:

© OECD/IEA 2012


• Contact:

Cecilia Tam, IEA

phone +33 1 40 57 67 55

[email protected]

ADDITIONAL SLIDES

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ADDITIONAL SLIDES

Energy Technology Perspectives

(ETP) 2012 South Africa - Power

Electricity generation in South Africa in 4DS and 2DS

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ETP 2012 South Africa - Power

Annual CO2 reductions in the power sector in 2DS vs 4DS

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Documents

Energy Technology Roadmaps Cecilia Tam 18 June 2012 · Energy technology roadmaps 6 ° C Scenario –business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies 2 ° C Scenario