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David A. Rosenberg August 20, 2010Chief Economist & Strategist Economic [email protected]+ 1 416 681 8919
MARKET MUSINGS & DATA DECIPHERING
Breakfast with DaveWHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING
It literally is a sea of red this morning as far as global equity market performance
is concerned. Dells impressive results have been blunted by the dismal
incoming U.S. economic news (though the company did cite weakening demand
for PCs not what you want to hear heading into back-to-school season
because you already know that apparel sales are completely dormant with a lot
of inventory sitting on the shelves). In Europe, all 19 sub-sectors are down so
far today and there are five decliners for every advancer on the Stoxx 600 index.
Emerging markets closed 0.5% lower in the first decline in six days the
Shanghai index reversing 1.7%.
Government bond markets retain a solid bid 30-year yields in Germany are
down 5bps to a record-low of 2.91%. So, you are not going convince us that with
comparable core inflation rates and a much higher unemployment rate in the
U.S.A. (9.5% versus 7.0%) that the long Treasury is not going to follow suit that
is where the greatest total return potential lies across the curve. The Treasury
market, in the meantime, is enjoying its most intense rally in six months up in
price now for four weeks running.
Long bond yields are down to 1.57% in Japan, 2.87% in Denmark, 3.01% in the
Netherlands, and 3.22% in France. And, in a sign that market participants are
lowering their inflation expectations, the spread between 30-year and 10-year
yields has compressed this week, to just over 200bps (tightest in 18 months butstill double the historical norm). The 2-year note yield, hit a new all-time low at a
Japanese-like level of 0.46%. Why so many pro-growth bullish commentators
dont choose to find religion and accept the good work the bond market is doing
for the economy like taking mortgage rates down to new record lows of 4.42%
for the 30-year fixed-rate remains a mystery.
In the foreign exchange market, the DXY is firming as it tests both the 50- and
200-day moving averages to the upside and the yen has strengthened to a
seven-week high against the euro in another classic case of heightened risk
aversion (and taking the stock prices of many Japanese large-cap exporters
down sharply today. The Nikkei index closed down 2%, to 9,179, where it was
back on August 22, 1983). Gold, another safe haven, is sitting pretty as it
consolidates around seven-week highs as well.
Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. is one of Canadas pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984 and focused primarily on high networth private clients, we are dedicated to meeting the needs of our clients by delivering strong, risk-adjusted returns together with the highest
level of personalized client service. For more information or to subscribe to Gluskin Sheff economic reports,
visitwww.gluskinsheff.com
Canada cooling off:Canadas index of leadingeconomic indicators camein weaker than expectedand wholesale salesoutright contracted
While you were sleeping: asea of red this morning asfar as global equity marketperformance is concerned;government bond marketsretain a solid bid; U.S.dollar is firming
500k and counting: U.S.initial jobless claimscontinue to rise and arenow at 500k
Dont bet on this Philly: ThePhilly Fed index swung from5.1 in July to -7.7 in August,and the components werehorrible too
U.S. leading indicatorsrolling over
U.S. recession neverended; GDP to contact inQ3
The bear market in U.S.housing starts is still farfrom over
IN THIS ISSUE
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Meanwhile, the commodity-based currencies are taking it on the chin and the
CAD endured a faltering session yesterday on the back of some dismal
wholesale trade realities renewed recession pressures stateside are finding
their way north of the border at a time when the domestic housing market is
clearly rolling over. Why Mark Carney would continue to raise rates in this
environment is anyones guess but the consensus seems to think theres at
least one more interest rate bullet in his chamber even with todays inflation
news that the year-over-year trend in core CPI dipped to 1.6% in July from 1.7%.
Corporate bond risks have staged a reversal and are now rising, as per the
modest deterioration in the CDX market. The resource complex is trading
completely on the defensive right now, with particular weakness in the base
metals group (nickel off 1.5%). And crude oil has traded down to six-week lows
on mounting global growth concerns. The front page news in todays NYT on the
success the White House is having in convincing Israel to forgo, or at least delay,
the pre-emptive actions strike as it relates to Iran could trim some of the
geopolitical premium off the resource complex, oil in particular (see Israel
Assuaged on Iran Threat, U.S. Officials Say).
Yesterdays action was impressive if you were short the market. The S&P was
clocked for a 1.7% loss and volume rose along with the selling pressure. St. Louis
Fed President Bullard reiterated his support for expanded QE if the economy
faltered, though he was quick to say that continued expansion is the most likely
course going forward. Someone forgot to tell him that real GDP, both real and
nominal, have contracted now for two months in a row (see more below).
If the backup in jobless claims to 500k wasnt bad enough, the negative reading
on the Philly Fed for the first time in a year shook the markets badly (only two of
58 forecasters believed the manufacturing index would deteriorate). And, just
how strong can the economy possibly be when California is back paying out
IOUs (see page 3 of the FT). The S&P 500 is now back to its lowest level in a
month and off 12% from the nearby April highs. In Europe, one has to really
wonder, bravado from the EU notwithstanding, how the periphery really is doing
when four-year bond yields in Greece are still in the stratosphere, at 11.9%, and
Portugal-German 10-year spreads back above 280 basis points.
As for politics, you know things are getting desperate when we see on
Bloomberg News stories that the Democrats are blaming the Bush
administration for todays economic woes (hey, it worked for FDR he blamed
Hoover over and over and it worked), and when you see headlines like this in
the New York Times (Once Banished from Campaign Trail, Clinton is Now a TopSalesman page 16). Who recalls back in the primaries in early 2008 when
Mr. Obama said This has become a habit and one of the things that were going
to have to do is to directly confront Bill Clinton when hes making statements
that are not factually accurate. Question does this also apply when the
former President starts to voice his support? One must read today, by the way,
is Why Pundit Predicts a GOP Romp in Novemberon page A2 of the WSJ.
Page 2 of 15
In todays action,
commodity-based currencies
are taking it on the chin
Yesterdays action in the
U.S. was impressive if you
were short the market
In politics, you know things
are getting desperate when
we start seeing stories that
the DEM are blaming the
Bush administration for
todays economic woes
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In yesterdays Two Jeremies diatribe, I could have included other deflationistas
to the bridge club, notably Harry S. Dent and our friend Stephanie Pomboy at
MacroMavens. We may get three tables going yet. And of course, Paul Krugman
too, and whether you agree with him or not, he is generally a great read and so it is
the case today with hisAppeasing the Bond Gods on page A19 of the NYT. The
best shot was this one:
The latest fashion is to declare that theres a bubble in the bond market:
investors arent really concerned about economic weakness; theyre just getting
carried away. Its hard to convey the sheer audacity of this argument. Paul, we
tried our best yesterday. Mr. Krugman is spot on that in contrast to some
bubble euphoria in the Treasury market, bond investors are actually worried
about stagnation and deflation.
FIVE HUNDRED AND COUNTING
Initial jobless claims did it again rising above consensus views and again off
upwardly revised figures. There is little doubt that the trend in claims is firmly up
and that overall labour market conditions are deteriorating. Keep in mind that
the August 14th week represented the nonfarm payroll survey week, and an
outright decline in private payrolls cannot be ruled out (we shall await ADP which
comes out on September 1).
So what happened with the data? Well, claims rose to 500k from 488k (was
484k) and are up now for three weeks in a row and in four of the past five
weeks. The last time they were this high was during the week of November 14,
2009. The four-week moving average has also trended higher 482,500 from
474,500 the prior week and 454,750 a month ago. They were last at this level
on December 5th
of last year.
CHART 1: DOUBLE DIP OR SINGLE-SCOOP
United States: Initial Jobless Claims
(thousands)
10987654321
675
600
525
450
375
300
225
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 3 of 15
There is little doubt that the
trend in claims is firmly upand that overall labour
market conditions are
deteriorating
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Continuing claims did manage to drop 13k in the week of August 7, to 4.478
million, but this is misleading given the throngs who have moved onto the array
of federal emergency extended benefits; the aggregate backlog of claims tally
soared 192k to 9.925 million. This is an unmitigated disaster.
Lets just say that in the past, there were eight times when claims were on a rising
trajectory and broke above the 500k mark. On six of those occasions, the
economy was already in recession (though the consensus rarely sees this even as
it is unfolding) or heading into one. The two periods that the economy emerged
unscathed were in 1977 and 1992 and both times, it was seasonal adjustment
quirks that were the culprit, along with strike action in Atlanta in the former
episode. Both times were one-off weekly spasms (some will undoubtedly say that
federal government worker claims have skewed this latest move to 500k but lets
be honest all the bulls were saying that these Census workers were going to get
redeployed in the private jobs market very quickly. This clearly is not the case).
Claims are on a clear rising trend but we respect the view that you should never
rely too heavily on one data-point even a nice round number like 500k. Lets
just say that if we see the four-week moving average hit this level, a double dip
assuming we arent still in a single-scoop that began in December 2007
will be baked in the ice cream cake. Fait accompli.
DONT BET ON THIS PHILLY
The Philly Fed index was the final nail in the coffin on the double dip. It may
not even be a double dip because it is not a stretch to believe that the
recession that began in December 2007 was only briefly interrupted by a
truncated inventory cycle and the impact now largely gone of
unprecedented monetary, fiscal and bailout stimulus. What we are now seeingunfold is the primary trendline in the U.S. (and Canada, by the way) economy
when left to its own devices though no doubt the Fed will soon react by yet
again dramatically expanding its already pregnant balance sheet.
CHART 2: DONT BET ON THIS PHILLY
United States: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
(diffusion index)
1050505050
60
40
20
0
-2 0
-4 0
-6 0
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 4 of 15
The Philly Fed index was the
final nail in the coffin on the
double dip
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The Philly Fed came in at -7.7 for August the consensus was looking for +7.0;
the July reading was +5.1, the June reading was +8.0; and the May reading was
+21.4. That is what would otherwise be called a freefall.
This is the first negative reading since July 2009. A 29 point slide in three
months is rare and every recession was followed by such a steep descent,
though in fairness, there have been head fakes along the way. But half the
time in the past, such a steep slide over a three-month span presaged recession
just about half the time. So at best, this is a flip of a coin and yet most Wall
Street economists are still somewhere locked between zero and 35% odds of
the economy turning down again (it looks to be contracting this quarter!).
The components were simply horrible too orders down to -7.1 from -4.3, the
first back-to-back negative prints in 13 months; backlogs at -7.1 too. In a clear
sign that inventories are no longer being accumulated, this component came in
at -11.6, the first minus sign since March and most negative number in nine
months. The employment components were scary they were so bad the
workweek index swung from +1.7 in July to -17.1 in August (worst since June
2009) and the jobs index went from +4.0 to -2.7, a 10-month low.
The bond bulls should have feasted on the inflation components: prices-received
(charged) was negative for the third month running, at -12.5 in August. This is
the weakest since August 2009 in the past five decades, the Philly Fed prices-
received index been this negative less than 5% of the time.
Prices-paid also slipped but only to +11.8 from +13.1 and the fact that this proxy
for input prices is still positive at a time when prices charged for the output is so
deeply negative, strongly suggests that profit margins are rolling off their peak.
The combination of Philly Fed and New York Empire points to a 53.0 reading on
ISM (data out on September 1st) from 55.5 in July. That would be the lowest in
11 months and ratify the view that the peak was turned in at 60.4 in April.
LEADING INDICATORS ROLLING OVER
The Conference Boards index of leading economic indicators magically came in
at +0.1% MoM, as expected, in July but the diffusion index was low at 55% and
has not been better than this since March when it was 70%. The treatment of
the shape of the yield curve seems to skew the number by 0.3 to 0.4 of a
percent point each and every month, so outside of that the LEI actually fell 0.2%
and is down now in two of the past three months. In fact, the LEI is barely up
from the Mach 2009 low without the contributions from the yield curve and thestock market, which together accounted for about two-thirds of the rebound.
Page 5 of 15
The combination of Philly
Fed and New York Empire
points to a 53.0 reading on
ISM from 55.5 in July
Yes, the LEI magically came
in at 0.1% MoM in July, but it
is being boosted by yield
curve; outside of that, the
LEI actually fell 0.2%
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Moreover, the coincident-to-lagging ratio, which our friend Dennis Gartman has
often cited as a fairly reliable leading indicator of the leading indicator itself (!)
slipped to 94.0 from 94.1 in June and 94.3 in May. It really says something
about the lack of impetus in the economic landscape that this ratio would have
peaked at a level that it almost bottomed out at in the recession of the early
1990s. At no time in the past 40 years has the peak been as low as 94.3, and
think of all the hard lifting monetary and fiscal policy had to do just to get there.
CHART 3: COINCIDENT-TO-LAGGING RATIO SLIPPING
United States: Ratio of Coincident Composite Index to Lagging
(2004 = 100)
105050505050
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source :The Conference Board, Gluskin Sheff
Below is the chart of the YoY trend in the leading indicator. This puts the data
into current context it peaked at 11.6% in March and the growth has since
been pared to 7.1%.
Page 6 of 15
CHART 4: GROWTH RATE IN THE LEI SLOWING DOWN QUICKLY
United States: Index of Leading Economic Indicators
(year-over-year percent change)
109876543210
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source The Conference Board, Gluskin Sheff
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The chart below plots the YoY trend in the LEI with a six-month lead against
industrial production. It has a decent 81% correlation and is pointing to a
discernible slowing ahead.
CHART 5: DISCERNIBLE SLOWING IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AHEAD
United States
(year-over-year percent change)
Index of Leading Economic Indicators(six-month lead, thick line, left hand side scale)
Industrial Production(thin line, right hand side scale)
1050505050
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
r = 0.81
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Conference Board, Gluskin Sheff
U.S. RECESSION NEVER ENDED; GDP TO CONTRACT IN Q3
Our suspicions have been confirmed the recession never ended.
Macroeconomic Advisers produces a monthly U.S. real GDP series and it shows
that the peak was in April, as we expected, with both May and June down 0.4%in the worst back-to-back performance since the economy was crying Uncle!
back in the depths of despair in September-October 2008. The quarterly data
show that Q2 stands at a +1.1% annual rate (so look for a steep downward
revision for last quarter) and the build in for Q3 is -1.5% at an annual rate.
Depending on the data flow through the July-September period, it looks like we
could see a -0.5% to -1% annualized pace for the current quarter. Most
economists have cut their forecasts but are still in a +2.5% to +3.5% range.
What is truly amazing is that despite all the fiscal, monetary, and bailout
stimulus, the level of real economy activity, as per the M.A. monthly data, is still
2.5% below the prior peak. To put this fact into context, the entire peak to
trough contraction in the 2001 recession was 1.3%! That is incredible.
Interestingly, and dovetailing nicely with our deflation theme, nominal GDP fell0.3% in May and by 0.4% in June. This is a key reason why Treasury yields are
melting.
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CHART 6: NO WONDER THE NBER NEVER SOUNDED THE ALL-CLEAR
United States: Macroeconomic Advisers Monthly Real GDP Index
(seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, 2005 $billion)
1098765
13400
13200
13000
12800
12600
12400
12200
Source: Macroeconomic Advisers, Gluskin Sheff
THE BEAR MARKET IN HOUSING STARTS IS STILL FAR FROM OVER
We got the housing numbers for the U.S. earlier this week and we saw single-
family starts crater for the third month in a row by 4.2% in August to a
432,000 unit annual rate. Only six other times in the past 50 years have starts
been this low.
CHART 7: BEAR MARKET IN HOUSING STILL FAR FROM OVER
United States: Housing Starts: Single Family Units
(thousand units, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate)
105050505050
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
Source: Census Bureau, Gluskin Sheff
Page 8 of 15
For the real GDP count, this is obviously awful news for the current quarter, and
it seems like this, alongside a variety of other influences (weaker growth in
consumer spending, state and local government cutbacks, a more moderate
profile to the double-digit trend in capital spending, the end of the mini-inventory
cycle), will lead to a modest economic contraction this quarter, which will still
come as a surprise to a consensus still expecting near-2% growth.
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But the cutback in production by the builders is necessary to ultimately restore
balance to the housing market. It is clear that there is no pent-up demand with
mortgage rates diving to new lows and no response coming in terms of new
applications for home purchase (down 38% over the past year), customer traffic
in the showrooms (tied now for the third lowest level in history) or homebuying
intentions surveys (second lowest level in the past three decades, as per the
most recent Conference Board survey).
CHART 8: NEW APPLICATIONS FOR HOME PURCHASE DOWN 38% YoY
United States: Mortgage Loan Applications for Purchase
(March 16, 1990 = 100)
10505
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Gluskin Sheff
CHART 9: BUYER TRAFFIC VERY WEAKUnited States: Traffic of Prospective Buyers of New Homes
(All Good = 100)
1050505
80
60
40
20
0
Source: National Association of Home Builders, Gluskin Sheff
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CHART 10: VERY FEW ARE EXPECTING TO BUY A HOME
United States: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey:
Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months
(percent)
10505050
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
Source: The Conference Board, Gluskin Sheff
With the homeownership rate still at 67%, versus the pre-bubble norm of 64%,
and with lending requirements more stringent, which means the new normal
includes a downpayment (how novel is that?), you can forget there being a
revival in demand coming any time soon. The demand will be coming for my old
room at ma and pas, the basement guest room at the in-laws or space in the
rental sector (think of the math mean-reverting this series will imply a shift of
four million people to the apartment sector in coming years these are the
REITs you probably want to be involved with because we can actually see
demand for apartments doing well in this environment).
CHART 11: HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE STILL ABOVE THE PRE-BUBBLE NORM
United States: Homeownership Rate
(percent)
10505050505
70
68
66
64
62
Source: Census Bureau, Gluskin Sheff
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But lingering supply concerns and the resultant dampening impact on home
prices will keep buyers at bay, and turnover will be limited by the fact that 25%
of the mortgage population are upside down and as such are immobile (unless
they can cut the lender a big check and move away). This statistic does not get
much play, but the Zillow national home price composite fell 0.2% in June and is
down now for 49 consecutive months.
The critical question is: have the builders done enough cutting? In other words,
have we seen the lows in housing starts and can we begin the process of
building a base for future production?
Hell no.
First, as we mentioned, there is no pent-up demand. At the margin, housing is
simply no longer viewed as a viable investment. Second, the demographics are
awful. Household formation is barely running at over a 600,000 annual rate,
which translates into 430,000 for natural demand for single-family homes and
condos. At the bubble peak, net household formation for new homes was running
well in excess of a million unit annual rate what a shame that the builders had to
cannibalize their own business and right through 2004, 2005, and 2006 were
building at a pace that was more than 50% above the prevailing rate of household
creation. We continue to pay for that irrational exuberance to this day.
It would be nice to have immigration solve our demographic problems but new
visa applications to the U.S. are actually declining on a year-over-year basis.
Who wants to come to a country where there is already a five million pool of
unemployed people competing for every meager job opening? Even Germany
has a 7% unemployment rate, 2% percentage points below Americas.
Third, we have this other dilemma, which is supply. The homeowner vacancy
rate is off its all-time highs but only by a fraction and sits at 2.5%, the pre-bubble
norm was closer to 1.5%, so this means that there is well in excess of a million
units that are in excess inventory. So, with natural demand at an estimated
430,000 units, single-family starts would have to decline further, to around a
330,000 unit annual rate and stay there for a good year, (or correct to 380,000
for two years) for the excess stockpile to disappear and thereby establish a floor
under residential real estate prices. In other words, there is still the chance that
we would have to see single-family starts undergo another 12-24% cutback
before the pain begins to yield a longer-term gain. In the interim, avoid the
homebuilders and any investment correlated with them.
Page 11 of 15
In the U.S., lingering supply
concerns in housing and theresultant dampening impact
on home prices will keep
buyers at bay
Visa applications to the U.S.
are actually declining on a
YoY basis; who wants to
come to a country where
there is already a 5mln pool
of unemployed peopleanyway?
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CHART 12: VACANCY RATE STILL VERY HIGH
United States: Homeowner Vacancy Rate(percent)
1050505050
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
Source: Census Bureau, Gluskin Sheff
Keep in mind one other thing. These are very conservative estimates. Look at the
last chart of vacant homeownership units that are being held off the market for
unspecified reasons a proxy for the oft-cited shadow banking inventory (a
measure of the foreclosure pipeline). At 3.7 million units, this backlog is around
1.3 million higher than the pre-bubble normal levels. So make no mistake, barring
a dramatic reversal in household formation and/or the homeownership rate, the
bottom in starts could well end up being closer to 200,000 units, which would be
another 50% downside from here, which would be a replica of what we saw unfold
in the year to 2009 Q1. Over that period, the S&P 500 homebuilding group
tumbled 40% and the home furnishings sub-sector was off 20% (just a reminder).
Page 12 of 15
CHART 13: SHADOW HOUSING INVENTORY AT 3.7 MILLION UNITS
United States: Vacant Year-Round Housing Units
Held Off the Market For Other Reasons
(thousands)
10505
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
Source: The Conference Board, Gluskin Sheff
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Page 13 of 15
CANADA: COOLING OFF
We received two more pieces of Canadian data that were on the soft side. The
July leading indicators came in at 0.4% MoM missing the +0.7% expected by
economists and June wholesale sales contracted.
The LEI number is smoothed over five months and we prefer to focus on the
unsmoothed index as its more of a real-time indicator. On this basis, the LEI
rose just 0.2%, although this was the first increase after two months of sharp
declines. Even still, the YoY rate continues to roll over, slowing to 10.5% from
10.6% in June and nearly 5ppt below the April high of 15%. Clearly strong
growth is behind us.
We got another piece of the GDP puzzle, with June wholesale sales, which came
in at a disappointing -0.3% and fell 0.1% once adjusted for price effects (the
second decline in a row). The June GDP picture is a mixed one we had strong
manufacturing data and auto sales were robust as well. All in, we expect June
GDP to rise at 0.2% MoM, leaving the quarter at 2.5% QoQ, about 50 bps shy of
the Banks forecast.
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Gluskin Sheffat a Glance
Gluskin Sheff+ Associates Inc. is one of Canadas pre-eminent wealth management firms.Founded in 1984 and focused primarily on high net worth private clients, we are dedicated to theprudent stewardship of our clients wealth through the delivery of strong, risk-adjustedinvestment returns together with the highest level of personalized client service.OVERVIEW
As of June30, 2010, the Firm managedassets of$5.5 billion.
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We have strong and stable portfoliomanagement, research and client serviceteams. Aside from recent additions, ourPortfolio Managers have been with theFirm for a minimum of ten years and wehave attracted best in class talent at all
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Our investmentinterests are directlyaligned with those ofour clients, as Gluskin
Sheffs management andemployees arecollectively the largestclient of the Firmsinvestment portfolios.
$1 million invested in our
Canadian Value Portfolio
in 1991 (its inception
date) would have grown to
$11.7 million2 on March
31, 2010 versus $5.7
million for the S&P/TSX
Total Return Index over
the same period.
We have a strong history of insightfulbottom-up security selection based onfundamental analysis.
For long equities, we look for companieswith a history of long-term growth andstability, a proven track record,shareholder-minded management and ashare price below our estimate of intrinsic
value. We look for the opposite inequities that we sell short.
For corporate bonds, we look for issuers
with a margin of safety for the paymentof interest and principal, and yields whichare attractive relative to the assessedcredit risks involved.
We assemble concentrated portfolios our top ten holdings typically representbetween 25% to 45% of a portfolio. In this
way, clients benefit from the ideas inwhich we have the highest conviction.
Our success has often been linked to ourlong history of investing in under-followedand under-appreciated small and mid capcompanies both in Canada and the U.S.
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
In terms of asset mix and portfolioconstruction, we offer a unique marriagebetween our bottom-up security-specificfundamental analysis and our top-downmacroeconomic view.
For further information,
please contact
Notes:
Page 14 of 15
Unless otherwise noted, all values are in Canadian dollars.
1. Preliminary unaudited estimate.2. Not all investment strategies are available to non-Canadian investors. Please contact Gluskin Sheff for information specific to your situation.3. Returns are based on the composite of segregated Value and U.S. Equity portfolios, as applicable, and are presented net of fees and expenses.
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August 20, 2010 BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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