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VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK
SSI INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORYINSTITUTIONAL SALES
August 2013
1
SSI
TOPICS
Macro Overview & Outlook………………3
Vietnam Stock Market…………………..25
Vietnam Bond Market…………………...30
Market Outlook …………………….……35
Top Recommendations…………….….38
2
SSI
Vietnam & Trans-Pacific Partnership3
Vietnam is among 11 Members of TPP negotiations: To Open Trade Opportunities forVietnam industries by 2015 (Vietnam Textile Exports to double to US$30 billion/year)
SSI
VIETNAM & ASEAN INTEGRATION4
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC): Political, Social and Economic Cooperation
in 2015
SSI
VIETNAM TO BENEFIT FROM AEC5
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEW Continued and Strong FDI Inflows: Disbursed FDIs (up to July 2013): +6.4% yoy (US$6.7 bn), Registered FDIs: +19.6% yoy (US$11.91 bn: 87.6%
Manufacturing & 4.9% Real Estate). Idemitsu Kosan, Kuwait Petroleum International, Petrovietnam and Mitsui Chemicals to invest US$9bn Nghi Son
Refinery project more over the next 3 years. Samsung to invest additional US$3.2 billion mobile phone & parts factory in Thai Nguyen, North Vietnam. Buscenter Met to invest a US$1bn factory to produce buses and cars in central Binh Dinh province.
FDI in
Vietnam in
Q1 2013
Source: GSO, MPI
Singapore 40%
Russia 18%
Japan 17%
Korea 8%
Thailand 5% Taiwan 4%
Hong Kong 2%
China 1%
Australia 1%
Denmark 1%
Germany 1%Samoa 0%Holland 0%France 0%Brunel 0%
other 1%
Other 2%
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEWContinuing urbanization of Vietnam
8
Source: CEIC, HSBC
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEWNew investments in Electronics bolster Exports
and offset weak domestic demand (% YOY)
Source: CEIC, HSBC
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEWVietnam wages among cheapest in Asia
10
Source: CEIC, HSBC
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEWStrong FDI inflows into Vietnam-compared to
neighbors
Source: CEIC, HSBC
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEW Vietnam has highest increase in low-skill manufacturing
competitiveness in Asia
12
Source: CEIC, HSBC
SSI
COUNTRY OVERVIEW Stable Political Regime and New Young Cabinet
3.6m members in Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) 11th Party Congress (1400 delegates): held in Jan 2011 (every 5 years) Central Committee (160 members) appointed at the Congress Politburo appointed by Central Committee (14 members) General Secretary of VCP: Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong National Assembly (493 elected deputies): highest organ of law-making power appoints the
President, the PM, Chief Justice, Supreme Inspector and the Cabinet President of National Assembly: Mr. Nguyen Sinh Hung President: Mr. Truong Tan Sang Prime Minister: Mr. Nguyen Tan Dung Cabinet: Deputy PMs, Ministers, SBV Governor, Commission Heads (21)
13
Source: www.info.vn
SSI
MACRO OVERVIEW GDP Growth to remain weak at 5.3% in 2013 GDP Growth +4.9% in Q2 2013 (+5.03% in 2012 and +5.9% in 2011) Budget Deficit -4.8% of GDP (from -6.4% in 2010) Reliance on Bank Credits US$ 139bn (US$ 30bn in foreign currencies) Credit Growth +4.5% YTD June 2013* (+8.91% in 2012,+10.9% in 2011)
Vietnam Purchasing Managers’ Index
14
Source: GSO, SBV (*)
7.6%8.4%
7.2%
7.8%8.2%
7.9%
8.2%8.5%
7.4%
6.5% 6.18%
3.14%
3.90%
4.62%
5.32%
6.16%
6.78%
5.57%
5.68%
6.10%
4.10%
5.44%
4.89%
4.90%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q124Q2012
Vietnam GDP Growth YoY
Real GDP Growth Annual %
SSI
MACRO OVERVIEW Declining Trade Deficit
Trade Deficit: -US$733 million up to July 2013 (compared to -US$284mn in 2012 and -US$6.9 billion in 2011)
Largest Exports up to Q2 2013: Mobile Phones & Electronic Parts:
US$17.3bn (+172% YOY) Textiles: US$9.6bn (+16.3% YOY) Crude Oil: US$4.3bn (-9.1% YOY) Seafood: US$3.4bn (-0.2% YOY) Footwear: US$4.8bn (+15.6% YOY)
15
Source: www.gso.gov.vn
5.5 4.64.8
12.4
17.5
12.2
12.49.5
-0.30.7
-2.0
3.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
Trad
e D
efi
cit
(USD
bn
)
Imp
ort
s an
d E
xpo
rts
Val
ue
(USD
bn
)
Trade Deficit Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Trade Deficit (USD bn)
SSI
MACRO OVERVIEWBalance of Payments also turning into Surplus BOP turning into Surplus: +US$7 billion (2010: -US$3.5bn; 2009: -US$8bn) Foreign Remittances continue to strongly Flow in: in 2012 US$8.7bn
16
Source: J.P.Morgan March 2013
Vietnam: balance of payments
USD mn 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Current account -164 -6953 -10823 -6608 -4276 236 2973 2569
(% of GDP) -0.3 -9.8 -11.9 -6.8 -4.0 0.2 2.2 1.7
Trade balance -2776 -10438 -12783 -7607 -5136 -450 3691 3269
Net Services -8 -755 -950 -2421 -2461 -2980 -3616 -4000
Net Investment Income -1429 -2190 -4401 -3028 -4564 -5019 -5834 -5800
Net Transfers 4049 6430 7311 6448 7885 8585 8732 9100
Capital Account 3088 17730 12341 7172 6201 6390 9248 4500
Net FDI 2315 6516 9279 6900 7100 6480 6780 7000
Portfolio investment 1313 6243 -578 -71 2370 1412 3274 1500
Other investment -540 4971 3640 343 -3269 -1502 -806 -4000
Errors and Omissions 1400 -565 -1044 -9029 -3690 -5475 -1839 0
Reserves + related items 4324 10212 474 -8465 -1765 1151 10382 7069
SSI
MACRO OVERVIEW CPI sharply declined with lower Credit Growth CPI in July 2013: +0.27% (+2.68% YTD and +6.81% YOY) Gasoline Price: +6.1% YTD, Electricity: +5% YTD
Policy Interest Rates reduced Seven times by 700 bps SBV Policy Interest Rates down 700 bps since Mar 2012 Refinancing Rate 7%; Discount 5%; Deposit Ceiling 7%
since June 28 2013 Declining VND Loan Rates: Production Loans 9% (Non-
Production <13%), Banks still reluctant to lend
VND/USD Exchange Rate Fixing adjusted down 1% to 21,036 to remain Stable at around 21,200, after 10% depreciation in February 2011.
Low Productivity (High ICOR) of dominant Public Sector to improve with SOE reform (Public sector investments: 40% of GDP)
SBV’s cuts bring cumulative cuts for refinancing by 400bps
17
Source: GSO, Citibank, Dragon Capital, SSI
7.8%
12.6%19.4%
27.9%
11.3%
3.9%2.4%
8.7%11.7%
20.8%23.0%
17.3%
10.5%
6.9%5.4%
7.1% 6.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
12/20
0606
/2007
12/20
0706
/2008
12/20
0806
/2009
12/20
0906
/2010
12/20
1004
/2011
06/20
1108
/2011
10/20
1112
/2011
2/201
24/2
012
6/201
28/2
012
10/20
1212
/2012
2/201
34/2
013
6/201
3
CPI 12 Months
SSI
EASING MONETARY POLICY & FISCAL STIMULUS
Easing SBV Monetary Policy Directive No. 1:
- Stimulate Credit Growth (Targets 2012: revised 6-8%)- Boosting Residential Real Estate and Consumer Credits
Reduce Policy Interest Rates: to 7.5% from 14% (Deposit Ceiling Rate)
Banking Reform Reclassification of Banks according to financial and management strengths
(Group 1 to 4, Banks) Merger or Acquisition of weak banks with/ by stronger banks Recapitalization of banks SBV Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) to purchase US$5bn NPLs
from Banks in 2013
Government Resolution No 13 (May 10, 2012)
18
SSI
CURRENCY POLICY REFORM After 2 years of stability, VND/USD was depreciated by 1% in June 2013, to ease
conversions of redemptions by Banks and FII Outflows (Bonds and Equities). FX Reserves rose to US$30bn* in early 2013, i.e. 12 weeks of Imports (SBV Target: 16
weeks of Imports)
VND/USD to remain Stable after 1% Adjustment
FX reserves targeted to increase
19
Source*: Reuters, J.P.Morgan March 2013, Government estimates
SSI
BANKING REFORM SBV Reforms: Merge small banks & Recapitalize banks with high NPLs Interbank Interest Rates dropped (O/N 4.25%, 1-Week 4.3%, 1Month 4.6%) High NPLs in Banking System: official 4.8% (down from 6% in Dec 2012)
20
Source: HSBC, SBV, Reuters, SSI
-2.13%-0.66%
1.02%2.35%
4.15%
-1.06%-0.28%
0.03%
2.11%
4.50%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
ก.พ.-12 เม.ย.-12 มิ.ย.-12 ส.ค.-12 ต.ค.-12 ธ.ค.-12 ก.พ.-13 เม.ย.-13 มิ.ย.-13
Accummulated Credit Growth YTD
6.70
7.70
8.70
9.70
10.70
11.70
12.70
13.70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yiel
ds %
(Sec
onda
ry M
arke
t)
Maturity
VND Government Bond Yields
Yields Dec 2 2011
Yields August 16 2013
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
O/N 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week
Inte
rban
k Int
eres
t Rat
es %
VND Interbank Interest Rates
Interest Rates Dec 2 2011
Interest Rates August 16 2013
2.85 3.18
2
3.5
2.2 2.53.1 3.39 3.2
6.0
0
2
4
6
NPL Ratio (VN Acctg)
SSI
REFORM OF FINANCIAL SECTOR Establishment of Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) to resolve Bank Bad Debts
Banks to take Provisions for Bad Debts and to sell Bad Debts to VAMC to reduce NPL Ratio to 3% max
VAMC (a SBV unit) to purchase US$5 billion Bad Debts from Banks in return for VAMC Bonds
VAMC Bonds to entirely amortize over 5 years, linked to Collection of Bad Debts by Banks Banks to get SBV Refinancing Loans, secured by VAMC Bonds (if required by Banks)
21
SSI
REFORM OF FINANCIAL SECTOR Restructuring /Recapitalization of Banks and Financial Institutions
Enhanced Safety Ratios at Credit Institutions and Securities Firms Enhance Risk Management and Corporate Governance Continued Mergers & Acquisitions of weak Banks New Decisions on Consumer Finance and Leasing companies Prime Minister may approve Foreign Ownership of Banks beyond 30% limit
Facilitate access of Foreign Investors to Vietnam investment opportunities Government to raise Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of Listed Companies from 49% to
60% (except for companies in Government strategic sectors). Stock Exchanges to list: NVDRs to provide access to listed stocks at Full FOL, without Voting Rights Non-Voting Shares of listed companies Vietnam Stock Exchanges to Link with ASEAN Stock Exchanges by 2015
22
SSI
SOE REFORM 1,309 SOEs 100% OWNED BY THE STATE
Assets: US$ 857bn equivalent Equity: US$ 33bn Annual profit: US$ 5.5bn Contributing to 29% of Vietnam GDP Petro Vietnam, Vietnam Rubber, EVN, VNPT, VinaLines, VINATEX, CIENCO, Military
Petroleum, Vietnam Tea Group.
SOE DEBTS Total VND 1,088 trillion (US$ 50bn) : Over 50% of total bank credits Estimated Bad Debts owed by SOE: VND 200 trillion (US$ 10 billion) Accumulated Losses: VND 26 trillion (US$ 1.2bn/year) EVN Debts: VND 239.7 trillion (US$ 11bn)
23
Source: Ministry of Finance Jan 2012, *Document for the Autumn Economic Forum by National Assembly
SSI
SOE REFORM REFORM PLAN
Set-up SEO Management & Supervision Commission Continuation of Equitization Plan: 98 SOEs to equitize in 2012-2013 (367 SOEs to
equitize until 2015) Implementation of Reform Plan:
- 2012 – 2015Debt Restructuring- 2015 Divestment by Government- 2015 – 2020Equitization/ IPO of SOEs
DIVESTMENTS BY 11 SOE GROUPS FROM NON-CORE BUSINESSES BY 2015 (VND
19,500 billion~US$ 1bn)
ACCELERATION OF EQUITIZATION/IPOS OF SOE COMPANIES:
(IPO in 2013: Vietnam Airline, Vinatex, Viglacera)
24
Source: Ministry of Finance Jan 2012, *Document for the Autumn Economic Forum by National Assembly
SSI
VIETNAM STOCK MARKETSVN Index (HOSE) - Main Board
P/E 12.9 x (trailing)308 Listed Stocks
Total Market Cap: US$40.8bn
VN Index
HNX Index (Hanoi) - Small CapP/E 24.7 x (trailing)
386 Listed StocksTotal Market Cap: US$4.6bn
VH Index
25
Source: SSI, Bloomberg as at August 20, 2013
SSI
HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE MARKETStock Market Valuations
Dominated by Financials & Real Estate (50% of VN Index) VN Index P/E peaked at 45x in 2007 now at 12.9 x Earnings (trailing) HNX P/E peaked at 45x in 2007 now at 24.7 x Earnings (trailing)
26
VN-INDEX SECTOR WEIGHTINGP/E ratio of VN Index
Source: Bloomberg August 20, 2013
Automobiles & Parts 1%Financial
Services10%
Const & Materials
3%Real Estate
9%
Basic Resources
1%
Technology0%
Per. House Goods
2%Insurance
4%
Industry Goods & Serv.
5%
Oil & Gas18%
Retail1%
Travel & Leisure
0%Utilities
2%Chemicals
3%
Food & Beverage
18%
Telecommunication, 2%
Health Care2%
Banks21%
SSI
INDUSTRY SECTOR RETURNS IN 2012Decent Returns despite Tough Macro Economy Automobiles & Parts/ Utilities/ Oil & Gas/ Banks Outperformed Financial Services/ Telecommunication/ Technology/ Real Estate Underperformed
27
Total Return in 2012 (%)Industry Subsectors
(ICB)No
StocksTotal Return in 2012
(%)
Financial Services 15 -8
Technology 5 -5
Telecommunication 1 -4
Real Estate 32 1
VN Index 308 18
Insurance 4 23
Industry Goods & Serv. 56 23
Food & Beverage 39 25
Retail 8 25
Per. House Goods 17 27
Chemicals 10 28
Basic Resources 22 33
Travel & Leisure 7 34
Health Care 8 35
Const & Materials 56 36
Banks 5 36
Oil & Gas 5 45
Utilities 15 48
Automobiles & Parts 3 159
Source: Bloomberg
SSI
YTD INDUSTRY SECTOR RETURNS IN 2013
28
YTD Total Return in 2013 (%)
Source: Bloomberg August 20, 2013
Vietnam Stocks have Rallied YTD, except in Financials sector Automobiles & Parts/ Personal House Goods/ Health Care/ Oil & Gas/ Utilities Outperformed Technology/ Real Estate/ Basic Resources/ Banks/ Construction & Materials Underperformed
-16-3
00
67
1011
1622
2627
3636
4143
5153
80
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Technology
Basic Resources
Const & Materials
Financial Services
Industry Goods & Serv.
Insurance
Telecommunication
Utilities
Health Care
Automobiles & Parts Industry Subsectors
(ICB)
No
Stocks
YTD Total Return in
2013 (%)
Technology 5 -16
Real Estate 35 -3
Basic Resources 22 0
Banks 5 0
Const & Materials 54 6
Chemicals 10 7
Financial Services 16 10
Food & Beverage 38 11
Industry Goods & Serv. 52 16
VNINDEX 306 22
Insurance 4 26
Retail 8 27
Telecommunication 1 36
Travel & Leisure 7 36
Utilities 15 41
Oil & Gas 5 43
Health Care 9 51
Per. House Goods 17 53
Automobiles & Parts 3 80
SSI
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP LIMIT (FOL)Foreign Ownership Limits (FOL)
Stocks:– Listed or Unlisted Non-Bank Public Companies: 49% of total
outstanding shares– Listed or Unlisted Public Banks: 30% of total outstanding shares
with cap of 5% per 01 foreign individual and 15% per 01 foreigninstitution
Bonds:– Normal Bonds: None– Convertible Bonds: same limits for stocks are applied
29
SSI
VIETNAM BOND MARKET30
Vietnam Bond Market is dominated by Government & Guaranteed Bonds, all listed on HNX
Source: ADB
SSI
VIETNAM BOND MARKET31
VND Bond Trading Market Share dominated by Domestic Banks Small and Under-developed Corporate Bond Market
Source: HNX:, ADB as of end-March 2013
Domestic banks
78.49%
Foreign banks
10.94%
Securities companies
6.83%
Other financial
institutions
3.74%
2012 Bond Market Participants Outstanding Amount
LCY Bonds (VND billions)
1. HAGL 4110.00
2. Techcombank 3000.00
3. Asian Commercial JSC 3000.00
4. Vincom 3000.00
5. Vinpearl 2500.00
6. Agribank Securities 2000.00
7. Minh Phu Seaafood 700.00
8. Hoa Phat Group 600.00
9. Kinh Bac City Development 500.00
10. Development Investment 350.00
11. Phu Hoang Anh 350.00
12. Binh Chanh Construction 300.00
13. Saigon Telecommunication 300.00
14. Thu Duc Housing Development 208.87
15. Long Hau 200.00
Total Top 15 LCY Corporate Issuers =US$1.01 billion 21118.87
Total LCY Corporate Bonds = US$1.05 billion 22008.97
Top 15 as % of Total LCY Corporate Bonds 96%
Issuers
SSI
NEW BOND ISSUES & BOND YIELDS Government to continue to auction US$ 7.5 billion Government Bonds in 2013 (US$
6.7 billion in 2012), mostly in 2 to 5-Year maturity Government Bond Yields to continue to decline (-300bps since Feb 2012)
32
1,500 348 282
4,574 3,148 6,665
-
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Government Bank Corporate
3,055 1,402 1,573
7,969
5,703 6,700
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
New Bond Issues (US$ million)
Source: Bloomberg, SSI, up to August 19, 2013
SSI
VIETNAM GOVERNMENT DEBTSComposition Vietnam’s Public Debt, at the end of 2010
In US$bn % of GDP % of Oustanding
Public Debt(incl Guaranteed Debt)
56.4% 56.7% Gen Govt Debt
General Govt Debt 45.3 45.5%
By Currency:
VND 17.4 17.5% 38.4%
JPY 10.8 10.9% 23.9%
USD 6.2 6.2% 13.6%
SDR 7.5 7.6% 16.6%
Others 3.3 3.3% 7.4%
By Type:
Domestic 17.4 17.5% 38.4%
Official Creditors 25.4 25.5% 56.1%
External Private Creditors 2.4 2.4% 5.3%
Govt Guaranteed Debt 11.1 11.2%
Domestic 6.5 6.5%
External 4.6 4.7%
Official Creditors 1.7 1.7%
Private Creditors 2.9 2.9%
33
External Debts- Not High: US$ 56.4billion* (57% of GDP), incl. ODA US$27 billion.
Debt Service Ratio: 3.2%* of Exports Vietnam Government Bond CDS to
decline further to recent macro-economic improvements
Source: *Bloomberg, as at October 4, 2012; CEIC Data Co., Ltd. and CIRA
SSI
MACRO-ECONOMIC FORECASTS2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F
GDP growth (%) 8.16 6.52 5.32 6.52 5.9 5.03 5.3
Agriculture (%) 3.02 3.57 1.57 2.89 4 2.72 3.5
Industry & Construction (%) 10.15 7.09 4.48 7.29 5.5 4.52 5.2
Construction (%) 10.14 -0.33 9.73 10.25 -0.97 2.01 2.8
Service (%) 8.54 7.23 5.91 7.24 6.99 6.42 6.51
Retail Sale (%) 22.9 30.9 18.5 24.96 22 16 19
Industrial Production Index (%) n/a 7.4 7.1 10.7 6.8 4.8 6.5
CPI (%) 12.6 19.9 4.35 11.09 18.13 6.81 9.1
PPI (Agriculture) (%) 17.46 0 -4.56 13.81 31.8 6.2 10.2
PPI (Industrial) (%) 7.44 25.79 2.38 13.44 18.3 10.1 14.1
Exports (USD bn) 43.7 58.0 51.3 72.2 96.9 114.6 127.8
Imports (USD bn) 54.5 74.8 62.3 84.8 106.7 114.3 131.9
Trade Balance (USD bn) -10.8 -16.8 -10.9 -12.6 -9.8 0.3 -4.1
% of Export 24.82% 28.98% 21.32% -17.45% 10.11% 0.00% -3.21%
Exchange rate (USD/VND) 15,950 17,483 18,479 18,932 21,250 20,900 21,500
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.9 -10.8 -6.6 -4.3 -0.6 8 3
Foreign reserve (USD bn) 23.74 24.17 16.8 12.9 11.56 25 32
Foreign reserve/imports (weeks) 22.64 16.80 14.03 8.88 5.63 11.99 12.4
Credit growth (%) 52.42 25.43 37.73 29.81 14.41 9% 9%
Deposit rate (VND -%) 14.71 8.61 11.89 16.66 8% 9%
SSI
MARKET FORECASTSMain Scenario Forecasts Below Average GDP Growth
Declining Interest Rates
Macro Economic Problems to Resolve: Cautions Monetary Policy Weak Public Investments On-Going Restructuring of Banks Weak Credit Growth (+9% expected) Restructuring of SOEs Weak Demand/Oversupply in Properties
Expected Earning Growth: +15%
VN Index to Reach 550 in 2013 (Forward P/E to rise to12.0 X from 11 X currently)
Source: SSI Research August 21, 2013
330 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 490 510 530
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
SSI
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OUTLOOK NEGATIVES
• Weak Consumer Demand and Public Investments • Continued De-Leveraging• Real Estate Price Deflation not complete yet• Restructuring of Banking and SOE sectors to depress Credit supply
POSITIVES• Sustainable FDI Inflows & FIE Exports• Sustainable growth in Consumer/ Food/ IT sectors• Continued Reforms in Banking and SOE Sectors• Policy Interest Rates to Decline further in 2013• Relaxation of Foreign Ownership Limits
36
SSI
SECTOR & STOCK RECOMMENDATIONSOverweight Sectors Dairy Pharmaceuticals Oil & Gas, Electricity
Neutral Sectors Materials (Steel, Fertilizers) Consumer Discretionary Technology
Underweight Sectors Financials Real Estate
37
Top Recommendations
Good Business Fundamentals & Positive Earnings Growth: (DHG, HVG, HPG, KDC, GAS,PET, REE, PPC, PVD, VNM)
High Cash Dividends (DBC, LSS, MBB, PET, SBT, REE, VSC)
Stocks with Full Foreign Limits (DHG, FPT, KDC, PNJ, REE, VNM )
Strong Property Developers in low-end residential segment (BCI, TDH)
SSI
TOP RECOMMENDATIONS38
Source: SSI Research & Investment Advisory, August 2, 2013
2013
TickerMarket Capitalization
(US $ million)Net Profit Growth %
Operating Margin %
Net Profit Margin %
EPS P/EDividend yield
(%)Current Price Target Price
FPT 565 16% 8% 8% 6,574 6.6 3% 43,200 56,000
GAS 5,900 24% 23% 22% 6,501 10.1 3% 65,500 74,137
HAG 710 97% 20% 25% 1,478 14.2 0% 20,800 24,730
HPG 608 69% 12% 9% 4,094 7.5 7% 30,500 37,400
KBC 98 N.a 36% 4% 81 39.2 0% 7,100 8,527
LAS 133 18% 14% 10% 5,966 6.0 6% 35,900 42,994
MBB 654 10% N.a N.a 1,962 5.5 11% 13,100 16,000
PGD 56 -13% 3% 3% 4,616 6.0 7% 27,700 32,300
PVD 608 34% 15% 13% 7,146 6.0 2% 51,500 58,784
VNM 5,785 10% 23% 20% 7,650 19.1 2% 146,000 136,000
VSH 134 46% 76% 81% 1,656 8.3 7% 13,700 16,900
FPT 565 16% 8% 8% 6,574 6.6 3% 43,200 56,000
GAS 5,900 24% 23% 22% 6,501 10.1 3% 65,500 74,137
SSI
VIETNAM LARGE CAP STOCKS39
Source: SSI Research & Investment Advisory, Aug 2, 2013
2013
TickerMarket
Capitalization (US$ million)
Net Profit Growth %
Operating Margin %
Net Profit Margin %
EPS P/EDividend yield (%)
Current Price Target PriceDaily Trading Value
(USD)
GAS 5,855 24% 23% 22% 6,501 10.1 3% 65,500 74,137 1,200,000
VNM 5,706 10% 23% 20% 7,650 19.1 2% 146,000 136,000 1,500,000
VCB 2,985 3% N.a N.a 1,941 13.9 4% 27,000 24,400 750,000
CTG 2,981 -6% N.a N.a 1,537 10.8 7% 19,300 21,500 700,000
MSN 2,950 -25% N.a 14% 1,791 57.9 0% 88,500 89,928 600,000
VIC 2,826 460% 97% 70% 10,801 5.9 0% 63,500 73,522 1,000,000
BVH 1,352 -9% N.a N.a 1,744 23.9 3% 41,700 46,148 1,400,000
STB 897 115% N.a N.a 1,431 12.3 6% 17,000 16,600 500,000
EIB 852 -15% N.a N.a 1,471 9.9 10% 14,500 15,800 2,600,000
DPM 731 -18% 26% 27% 6,563 6.1 6% 40,000 45,500 900,000
HAG 703 97% 20% 25% 1,478 14.2 0% 20,800 24,730 1,500,000
ACB 700 84% N.a N.a 1,587 8.6 6% 15,700 12,600 600,000
MBB 662 10% N.a N.a 1,962 5.5 11% 13,100 16,000 1,000,000
HPG 610 69% 12% 9% 4,094 7.5 7% 30,500 37,400 1,300,000
FPT 582 16% 8% 8% 6,574 6.6 3% 43,200 56,000 700,000
SSI
SSI CONTACTS40
INSTITIONAL SALES , RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORY
Coverage Ext Email
Bich Pham, CFA Managing Director, Institutional Sales 2054* [email protected]
Phuong Hoang Director – Institutional Research & Investment Advisory 409 [email protected]
Hung Pham Associate Director - Macro-Economy , Sea Food 637 [email protected]
Phong Tran Project Manager – Financials 1951* [email protected]
Giang Nguyen Project Manager - Consumer Goods 430 [email protected]
Trang Pham Analyst – Consumer Services , Materials (Rubber) 537 [email protected]
Kien Nguyen Analyst – IT/Telecom, Industrials, Utilities 510 [email protected]
Mai Anh Dinh Analyst – Real Estate 670 [email protected]
Thuy Nguyen Analyst - Energy (Petro Vietnam connection) 526 [email protected]
Minh Dinh Analyst – Health Care, Materials (Steel) 2148* [email protected]
Huy Nguyen Analyst – Logistics, Ports 1951* [email protected]
Ngoc Tran Team Assistant – Research data & Admin 775 [email protected]
SAIGON SECURITIES INC.
Member of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, the Hanoi Stock Exchange and Regulated by the State Securities Commission.
HO CHI MINH CITY
72 Nguyen Hue Street, Dist. 1 Ho Chi Minh CityTel: (848) 3824 2897 Fax: (848) 3824 2997 Email: [email protected]
HA NOI
1C Ngo Quyen StreetHanoiTel: (844) 3936 6321Fax: (844) 3936 6311
Note: * Tel (848) 3 824 2897, those Extension without * please dial (844) 3936-6322
SSI
DISCLAIMER41
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are based uponsources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness are not guaranteed.
Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the bestinformation then known to us, and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time.
Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice.
This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, SSI andother companies in the SSI and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions and may affect transactions insecurities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment-banking services for thesecompanies,
This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere, SSI accepts no liabilitywhatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content, The use of any information,statements forecasts and projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
SSI
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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