Ocean Observation AFF – NDI 2014

Environment Advantage

1AC – Environment Adv

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its exploration of the earth’s oceans by fully implementing the Integrated Ocean Observing System.

IOOS is key to effective ocean satellite data collectionFrank Muller-Karger 13, Professor of Oceanography, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, PhD in Marine and Estuarine Sciences from the University of Maryland; Mitchell Roffer, Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.;Nan Walker, Louisiana State University; Matt oliver, University of Delaware; Oscar Schofield, Rutgers; Mark Abbott, Oregon State University; Hans Graber, University of Miami, Florida; Robert Leben, University of Colorado, Boulder; Gustavo Goni, NOAA; “Satellite Remote Sensing in Support of an Integrated Ocean Observing System,” IEEE Geoscience and remote Sensing Magazine, December 2013, https://marine.rutgers.edu/pubs/private/FMK_et_al_IEEE_GRSM2013.pdfAbstract—Earth observing satellites represent some of the most valued components of the international Global

Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), both part of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

(GEOSS). In the United States, such satellites are a cornerstone of the Integrated Ocean Observing System ( IOOS ),

required to carry out advanced coastal and ocean research, and to implement and sustain sensible resource management policies based on science. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived data are required for mapping vital coastal and marine resources, improving m aritime d omain a wareness, and to better understand the complexities of land, ocean, atmosphere, ice, biological, and social interactions . These data are critical to the strategic planning of in situ observing components and are critical to improving forecasting and numerical modeling. Specifically, there are

several stakeholder communities that require periodic, frequent, and sustained synoptic observations. Of particular importance are indicators of ecosystem structure (habitat and species inventories), ecosystem states (health and change) and observations about physical and biogeochemical

variables to support the operational and research communities , and industry sectors including mining, fisheries , and

transportation. IOOS requires a strategy to coordinate the human capacity, and fund , advance, and maintain the infrastructure that provides improved remote sensing observations and support for the nation and the globe. A partnership between the private, government, and education sectors will enhance remote sensing support and product development for critical coastal and deep-water regions based on infrared, ocean color, and microwave satellite sensors. These partnerships need to include international research, government, and industry sectors in order to facilitate open data access, understanding of calibration and algorithm strategies, and fill gaps in coverage. Such partnerships will define the types of observations required to sustain vibrant coastal economies and to improve the health of our marine and coastal ecosystems. They are required to plan, fund, launch and operate the types of satellite sensors needed in the very near future to maintain continuity of observations.

Ocean observation causes effective management policiesDr. Andrew Rosenberg 11, Ph.D. in Biology from Dalhousie University, Prof of Natural Resources at the University of New Hampshire, former Deputy Director of the NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service, June 8 2011, “U.S. Ocean Policy Should Lead the Way for Global Reform,” http://blog.conservation.org/2011/06/u-s-ocean-policy-should-lead-the-way-for-global-reform/U.S. Ocean Policy Should Lead the Way for Global Reform¶ Dr. Andrew Rosenberg¶ At Conservation International, we know that while humans

are mostly confined to the quarter of the planet covered by land, we are surrounded — and sustained — by vast oceans .¶ In addition to supporting incredible biodiversity , oceans provide benefits to people in the form of food, energy, recreation, tourism and desirable places to live. They are also a tremendous economic driver, generating an estimated 69 million jobs and over $8 trillion dollars in wages per year in the United States alone. From renewable energy sources like wave and wind

power to offshore aquaculture and deep-sea bioprospecting, our oceans and coasts provide new opportunities for technology developers, manufacturers, engineers and others in a vast supply chain to discover, innovate and develop new economic opportunities around the globe.

America can lead this global innovation.¶ Unfortunately, the health of our oceans is in serious

decline ; in too many places, coastal water quality is poor, fisheries are stressed, habitats for ocean life are

degraded and endangered marine species are struggling to recover. Disasters such as last year’s BP oil spill have damaged the oceans and their inhabitants,

which in turn has stressed the communities and industries that depend on healthy oceans.¶ To turn the tide , our national, state and local leaders must make a

commit ment to more coordinated management of ocean resources . Our decisions must be based on

sound science, and scientific work must be a funding priority in order for us to gain the benefits the oceans can provide.¶ The Joint Ocean Commission

Initiative recently released America’s Ocean Future, a report that calls on leaders to support full and effective implementation of our nation’s first national ocean policy — the National Policy for Stewardship of Ocean, Coasts and

Great Lakes — which was established by President Obama in July of 2010. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the national ocean policy has the potential to act as a catalyst for long-awaited and important reforms, including enhanced

monitoring, assessment and analysis of the condition of our ocean ecosystems, how they affect and are affected by human activity and whether management strategies are achieving our environmental, social and economic goals. Using these tools to better understand our oceans will help us to more

effectively manage these resources and strengthen coastal economies and communities across the country.¶ As a member of the Joint Initiative’s Leadership Council and an advisor to

the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force, I believe that monitoring what is happening in our oceans is critical to understanding how the physical, biological, chemical and human elements of ocean ecosystems interact . The Joint Initiative report recommends fully supporting an ocean observation system that would integrate data from sensors at the bottom of the ocean , from buoys on the ocean’s surface and from satellites with remote sensing technology high above the Earth.¶ The report also emphasizes the importance of better integrating the study of our planet’s climate and ocean systems. We need to have a better understanding of how climate change affects the health of our oceans and marine life in order to develop strategies to mitigate negative consequences on ocean ecosystems and coastal communities. The report notes that “information about climate impacts will be particularly important for coastal areas with infrastructure that is vulnerable to rising sea levels and strong coastal storms, including

communities with naval facilities and transportation and energy infrastructure near the coast.Ӧ The development of expanded and improved science, research and education around our oceans is a sound investment in improving

our economy. The data and information collected from research activities will be used to inform coastal

development , promote sustainable and safe fishing practices, and develop vibrant marine-based recreation and tourism. And promoting the education of our next generation of marine scientists will help us compete in a global economy increasingly driven by scientific and technological innovation.

Ocean ecosystems are collapsing – only the aff can mobilize international solutionsSherman ‘11 (Kenneth, 2011, “The application of satellite remote sensing for assessing productivity in relation to fisheries yields of the world’s large marine ecosystems,” ICES Journal of Marine Science, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Ph.D, Director of U.S. LME Program, Director of the Narragansett Laboratory and Office of Marine Ecosystem Studies at the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, adjunct professor in the Graduate School of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island)In 1992, world leaders at the historical UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) recognized that the

exploitation of resources in coastal oceans was becoming increasingly unsustainable , resulting in an international effort to assess, recover, and manage goods and services of large marine ecosystems (LMEs). More than $3 billion in support to 110 economically developing nations have been dedicated to operationalizing a five-module approach supporting LME assessment and management practices. An important component of this effort focuses on the effects of climate change on fisheries biomass yields of LMEs, using satellite remote sensing and in situ sampling of key indicators of changing ecological conditions . Warming appears to be reducing primary productivity in the lower latitudes, where stratification of the water column has intensified. Fishery biomass yields in the Subpolar LMEs of the Northeast Atlantic are also increasing as zooplankton levels increase with warming. During the current period of climate warming, it is especially important for space agency programmes in Asia, Europe, and the U nited States to continue to provide satellite-borne radiometry data to the global networks of LME assessment scientists . Overfishing, pollution, habitat loss, and climate change are causing serious degradation in the world’s coastal oceans and a downward spiral in economic benefits from marine goods and services. Prompt and large-scale changes in the use of ocean resources are needed to overcome this downward spiral. In 1992, the world community of nations convened the first global conference of world leaders in Rio de Janeiro to address ways and means to improve the degraded condition of the global environment (Robinson et al., 1992). Ten years later (2002), at a follow-up World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (Sherman, 2006), world leaders agreed to a Plan of Implementation for several marine-related targets including achievement of: (i) “substantial” reductions in land-based sources of pollution by 2006; (ii) introduction of the ecosystems approach to marine resource

assessment and management by 2010; (iii) designation of a network of marine protected areas by 2012; and (iv) maintenance and restoration of fish stocks to maximum sustainable yield levels by 2015. More recently, in Copenhagen in 2009, world leaders agreed to non-binding actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to mitigate the effects of global climate change. For the period 2010–2020, the international community of maritime nations is pursuing solutions for recovering depleted marine fish stocks, restoring degraded habitats, controlling pollution, nutrient overenrichment, and ocean acidification, conserving biodiversity, and adapting to climate change. This effort at improving the ecological condition of the world’s 64 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) is global in scope and ecosystems-orientated in approach (Sherman et al., 2005). LMEs are regions of 200 000 km2 or more, encompassing coastal areas from estuaries to the continental slope and the seaward extent of well-defined current systems along coasts lacking continental shelves (Figure 1). They are defined by ecological criteria including bathymetry, hydrography, productivity, and trophically linked populations (Sherman, 1994). The LMEs produce 80% of the world’s marine fisheries yields annually and are growing sinks of coastal

pollution and nutrient overenrichment. They also harbour degraded habitats (e.g. corals, seagrasses, mangroves, and oxygen-depleted dead zones). The Global Environment Facility (GEF), a financial group located in Washington, DC, supports developing countries committed to the recovery and sustainability of coastal ocean areas, by providing financial and catalytic support to projects that use LMEs as the geographic focus for ecosystem-based strategies to reduce coastal pollution, control nutrient overenrichment, restore damaged habitats, recover depleted fisheries, protect biodiversity, and adapt to climate change (Duda and Sherman, 2002).

Accelerating ocean loss causes extinctionAlex David Rogers 6/20/11, Ph.D. in marine invertebrate systematics and genetics from the University of Liverpool is a Professor in Conservation Biology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford AND Dan Laffoley, PhD on marine ecology at the University of Exeter, and Senior Advisor, Marine Science and Conservation Global Marine and Polar Programme (IPSO Oxford, “International earth system expert workshop on ocean stresses and impacts”, July 20, 2011, http://www.stateoftheocean.org/pdfs/1906_IPSO-LONG.pdf)The workshop enabled leading experts to take a global view on how all the different effects we are having on the ocean are compromising its ability to support us. This examination of synergistic threats leads to the conclusion that we have underestimated the overall risks and that the whole of marine degradation is greater than the sum of its parts, and that degradation is now happening at a faster rate than predicted. It is clear that the traditional economic and consumer values that formerly served society well, when coupled with current rates of population increase, are not sustainable. The ocean is the largest ecosystem on Earth, supports us and maintains our world in a habitable condition. To maintain the goods and services it has provided to humankind for millennia demands change in how we view, manage, govern and use marine ecosystems. The scale of the stresses on the ocean means that deferring action will increase costs in the future leading to even greater losses of benefits. The key points needed to drive a common sense rethink are: • Human actions have resulted in warming and acidification of the oceans and are now causing increased hypoxia. Studies of the Earth’s past indicate that these are three symptoms that indicate disturbances of the carbon cycle associated with each of the previous five mass extinctions on Earth (e.g. Erwin, 2008; Veron, 2008a,b; Veron et al., 2009; Barnosky et al., 2011). • The speeds of many negative changes to the ocean are near to or are tracking the worstcase scenarios from IPCC and other predictions. Some are as predicted, but many are faster than anticipated, and many are still accelerating. Consequences of current rates of change already matching those predicted under the “worst case scenario” include : the rate of decrease in Arctic Sea Ice (Stroeve et al., 2007; Wang & Overland, 2009) and in the accelerated melting of both the Greenland icesheet (Velicogna, 2009; Khan et al., 2010; Rignot et al., 2011) and Antarctic ice sheets (Chen et al., 2009; Rignot et al., 2008, 2011; Velicogna, 2009); sea level rise (Rahmstorf 2007a,b; Rahmstorf et al., 2007; Nicholls et al., 2011); and release of trapped methane from the seab ed

(Westbrook et al., 2009; Shakova et al., 2010; although not yet globally significant Dlugokencky et al., 2009). The ‘worst case’ effects are compounding other changes more consistent with predictions including: changes in the distribution and abundance of marine species (Beaugrand & Reid, 2003; Beaugrand 2004, 2009; Beaugrand et al., 2003; 2010; Cheung et al. 2009, 2010, Reid et al., 2007; Johnson et al., 2011; Philippart et al., 2011; Schiel, 2011; Wassmann et al., 2011; Wernberg et al., 2011); changes in primary production (Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Chavez et al., 2011); changes in the distribution of harmful algal blooms (Heisler et al., 2008; Bauman et al., 2010); increases in health hazards in the oceans (e.g. ciguatera, pathogens; Van Dolah, 2000; Lipp et al., 2002; Dickey & Plakas, 2009); and loss of both large, longklived and small fish species causing widespread impacts on marine ecosystems , including direct impacts on predator and prey species, the simplification and destabilization of food webs, reduction of resilience to the effects of climate change (e.g. Jackson et al. 2001; Pauly et al., 1998; Worm & Myers, 2003; Baum & Myers, 2004; Rosenberg et al., 2005; Worm et al., 2006; Myers et al., 2007; Jackson, 2008; Baum & Worm, 2009; Ferretti et al., 2010; Hutchings et al., 2010; WardkPaige et al., 2010; Pinskya et al., 2011). • The magnitude of the cumulative impacts on the ocean is greater than previously understood Interactions between different impacts can be negatively synergistic (negative impact greater than sum of individual stressors) or they can be antagonistic (lowering the effects of individual impacts). Examples of such interactions include: combinations of overfishing, physical

disturbance, climate change effects, nutrient runoff and introductions of nonknative species leading to explosions of these invasive species, including harmful algal blooms, and dead zones (Rabalais et al., 2001, 2002; Daskalov et al., 2007; Purcell et al., 2007; Boero et al., 2008; Heisler et al., 2008; Dickey & Plakas, 2009; Bauman et al., 2010; VaquerkSunur & Duarte, 2010); increased temperature and acidification increasing the susceptibility of corals to bleaching (Anthony et al., 2008) and acting synergistically to impact the reproduction and development of other marine invertebrates (Parker et al., 2009); changes in the behavior, fate and toxicity of heavy metals with acidification (Millero et al., 2009; Pascal et al., 2010); acidification may reduce the limiting effect of iron availability on primary production in some parts of the ocean (Shi et al., 2010; King et al., 2011); increased uptake of plastics by fauna (Andrady 2011, Hirai & Takada et al. 2011, Murray & Cowie, 2011), and increased bioavailability of pollutants through adsorption onto the surface of microplastic particles (Graham & Thompson 2009, Moore 2008, Thomson, et al., 2009); and feedbacks of climate change impacts on the oceans (temperature rise, sea level rise, loss of ice cover, acidification, increased storm intensity, methane release) on their rate of CO2 uptake and global warming (Lenton et al., 2008; Reid et al 2009). • Timelines for action are shrinking . The longer the delay in reducing emissions the higher the annual reduction rate will have to be and the greater the financial cost. Delays will mean increased environmental damage with greater socioeconomic impacts and costs of mitigation and adaptation measures. • Resilience of the ocean to climate change impacts is severely compromised by the other stressors from human activities, including fisheries, pollution and habitat destruction. Examples include the overfishing of reef grazers, nutrient runoff, and other forms of pollution (presence of pathogens or endocrine disrupting chemicals (Porte et al., 2006; OSPAR 2010)) reducing the recovery ability of reefs from temperaturekinduced mass coral bleaching (Hoeghk Guldberg et al., 2007; Mumby et al., 2007; Hughes et al., 2010; Jackson, 2010; Mumby & Harborne, 2010) . These multiple stressors promote the phase shift of reef ecosystems from being coralkdominated to algal dominated. The loss of genetic diversity from overfishing reduces ability to adapt to stressors. • Ecosystem collapse is occurring as a result of both current and emerging stressors. Stressors include chemical pollutants, agriculture runkoff, sediment loads and overkextraction of many components of food webs which singly and together severely impair the functioning of ecosystems. Consequences include the potential increase of harmful algal blooms in recent decades (Van Dolah, 2000; Landsberg, 2002; Heisler et al., 2008; Dickey & Plakas, 2009; Wang & Wu, 2009); the spread of oxygen depleted or dead zones (Rabalais et al., 2002; Diaz & Rosenberg, 2008; VaquerkSunyer & Duarte, 2008); the disturbance of the structure and functioning of marine food webs, to the benefit of planktonic organisms of low nutritional value, such as jellyfish or other gelatinousklike organisms (Broduer et al., 1999; Mills, 2001; Pauly et al. 2009; Boero et al., 2008; Moore et al., 2008); dramatic changes in the microbial communities with negative impacts at the ecosystem scale (Dinsdale et al., 2008; Jackson, 2010); and the impact of emerging chemical contaminants in ecosystems (la Farré et al., 2008). This impairment damages or eliminates the ability of ecosystems to support humans . • The extinction threat to marine species is rapidly increasing. The main causes of extinctions of marine species to date are overexploitation and habitat loss (Dulvy et al., 2009). However climate change is increasingly adding to this, as evidenced by the recent IUCN Red List Assessment of reforming corals (Carpenter et al., 2008). Some other species ranges have already extended or shifted polekwards and into deeper cooler waters (Reid et al., 2009); this may not be possible for some species to achieve, potentially leading to reduced habitats and more extinctions. Shifts in currents and temperatures will affect the food supply of animals, including at critical early stages, potentially testing their ability to survive. The participants concluded that not only are we already experiencing severe declines in many species to the point of commercial extinction in some cases, and an unparalleled rate of regional extinctions of habitat types (eg mangroves and seagrass meadows), but we now face losing marine species and entire marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, within a single generation. Unless action is taken now, the consequences of our activities are at a high risk of causing, through the combined effects of climate change, overexploitation, pollution and habitat loss, the next globally significant extinction event in the ocean. It is notable that the occurrence of multiple high intensity stressors has been a prerequisite for all the five global extinction events of the past 600 million years (Barnosky et al., 2009).

Scenario 1 is coral:

Ocean observation through IOOS is key to preserve coral reef ecosystemsDr .Rusty Brainard 9, PhD in Physical Oceanography from the US Naval Postgraduate School, Chief of the Coral Reef Ecosystem Division at the National Marine Fisheries Service’s Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center; Dr Kevin Wong, PhD in Biological and Agricultural Engineering from UC Davis; Ron Karl Hoeke, oceanographer for the Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research, M.S. in coastal oceanography from the Florida Institute of Technology and Doctoral candidate at James Cook University; Jamison Grove, E Smith, P Fisher-Pool, M Lammers, D Merritt, OJ Vetter, CW Young; “Coral reef ecosystem integrated observing system: In-situ oceanographic observations at the US Pacific islands and atolls,” Journal of Operational Oceanography Vol. 2 No. 2, http://www.pifsc.noaa.gov/library/pubs/Hoeke_etal_JOO_2009.pdfCoral reef ecosystems are among the most biologically diverse and productive ecosystems on earth. They provide economic and environmental services to hundreds of millions of people in terms of shoreline protection; areas of natural beauty and

recreation; and sources of food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, jobs, and revenue.1 At present, coral reef ecosystems worldwide are deteriorating at alarming rates due to local anthropogenic stressors, such as overexploitation, habitat destruction, disease,

invasive species, land-based runoff, pollution, and marine debris; and to stressors associated with global cli-mate change, especially increased

ocean temperatures and ocean acidification.2,3 A thorough understanding of coral reef ecosystem dynamics is required if these valuable natural resources are to be conserved and , in some cases, re-stored. In addition to

basic research, an increased level of assessment and monitoring is required for the sustainable

management and resilience of coral reefs, echoing calls for increased coastal monitoring at all

latitudes .4,5,6¶ Overview of CREIOS ¶ In response to calls for increased assessment, monitoring, and mapping to facilitate improved

management and con-servation of coral reef ecosystems, the United States Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) was established in 1998 byPresidential Executive Order. Through the coordinated ef-forts of its members, composed of federal agencies as wellas state, territorial, and freely associated state governments,the task force coordinates US efforts to protect , restore, and promote the sustainable use

of the nation’s coral reef eco-systems. As part of this national effort, and in conjunction with ongoing efforts to establish an Integrated Ocean Ob-serving System ( IOOS ), the NOAA Coral Reef Conserva-tion Program initiated the development of

CREIOS to provide a diverse suite of long-term ecological and environ-mental observations and information products over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. The goal of CREIOS is to better understand the condition of and processes influencing the health of the nation’s coral reef ecosystems and to provide this information t o resource managers and policymakers to assist them in making timely, science-based management decisions to conserve coral reefs .

Satellite monitoring essential- key to overall ecosystem healthRobinson ‘10 (Ian, 2010, Discovering the Ocean from Space [electronic resource] The unique applications of satellite oceanography / by Ian S. Robinson., BA and MA Mechanical Sciences, Cambridge University, PhD Engineering Magneto-hydrodynamics, University of Warwick, 1973, Higher and Senior Scientific Officer, Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, Bidston, Lecturer, senior lecturer and reader, University of Southampton Department of Oceanography, Head of Department of Oceanography, Professor, University of Southampton School of Ocean and Earth Science, Professorial Fellow, Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton) However, there is one aspect of reef biology in which the wider overview provided by satellite oceanography techniques has become essential , and important enough to require this subsection to itself. This is the issue of coral bleaching, and the role that satellite monitoring of sea surface temperature (SST) plays in identifying regions where reefs are at risk of bleaching . Corals are underwater animals that attach themselves to stony substrates. The order of corals known as stony corals, or scleractinians, are found as large colonies of individual coral polyps, each of which produces limestone deposits. Over the years these deposits have created the large reef systems found in shallow tropical and temperate seas, which provide a unique habitat for rich and complex ecosystems (see, e.g., pp. 117–141 in Barnes and Hughes, 1999). Corals thrive by hosting within their cells symbiotic algae called Zooxanthellae, which provide the coral with oxygen and organic compounds resulting from photosynthesis, while themselves obtaining from the coral carbon dioxide and other chemical compounds needed for photosynthesis. The algae give coral reefs their rich coloration and the symbiotic relationship is essential for the health of the whole reef ecosystem. Coral bleaching is the name given to the situation when corals are subject to physiological stress and respond by ejecting the zooxanthellae. The departure of the algae is visually evident because corals lose the pigments that give them their yellow or brown coloration. In this case the white limestone substrate that the corals have deposited shows through the translucent cells of the polyps which then appear pale or even white. If the stress is quickly removed the algae return within a few weeks and the corals recover, but if the stress is prolonged for many weeks the corals will die and continue to appear stark white. The loss of live corals eventually causes damage to the whole reef ecosystem . Consequently coral-bleaching events pose a serious threat that is taken seriously by marine environmental managers .

Independently prevents extinctionPhilippine Daily Inquirer ‘2[“REEFS UNDER STRESS”, 12-10, L/N]The artificial replacement of corals is a good start. Coral reefs are the marine equivalent of rainforests that are also being destroyed at an alarming rate not only in the Philippines but all over the world. The World Conservation Union says reefs

are one of the "essential life support systems" necessary for human survival, homes to huge numbers of animals

and plants. Dr. Helen T. Yap of the Marine Science Institute of the University of the Philippines said that the

country's coral reefs , together with those of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, contain the biggest number of species of plants and animals. "They lie at the center of biodiversity in our planet ," she said.

Scenario 2 is ocean acidification

IOOS observations stop ocean acidificationIglesias-Rodriguez et al. 2010M. Debora, School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED GLOBAL OCEAN ACIDIFICATION OBSERVATION NETWORK http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/176715/1/FCXNL-09A02b-2113336-1-Iglesias-Rodriguez_OceanObs09_PlenaryPaper_Acidification_formatted.pdf

One of the biggest challenges facing the community is to unveil the mechanisms behind biological adaptation over realistic time frames and thereby determine which species do or do not have the ability to adapt to future ocean acidification . Most experimental approaches used to date only address physiological responses to environmental selection pressure rather than long-term adaptation. There is an urgent need to conduct manipulations involving time-scales of multiple generations (cell division, generation of organisms) and environmental change at rates representative of those experienced by biota in the open ocean (Boyd et al., 2008). Monitoring potential adaptation in real time in the field, particularly in those areas of high susceptibility to ocean acidification (polar latitudes, upwelling zones) will provide information central to representing and forecasting the repercussions of ocean acidification on biota. Information from these platforms will be used to calibrate the findings in the laboratory experiments/mesocosms with strains/populations and to inform policy makers and marine resource managers. Data repositories of detailed carbonate chemistry, biological performance and molecular adaptation to environmental selection pressure will not only provide first hand information about natural selection processes in real time but will also answer fundamental questions of how changes in carbon chemistry alter the abundance and physiology of functional groups. While work with single strains/species provides valuable information about regulation of processes, it does not account for the complexity of natural populations, physical transport effect, interactions between bacteria and viruses and eukaryotic phytoplankton, mortality, etc. Many countries are presently engaged in ocean acidification research and monitoring activities, for example, the EU projects EPOCA, MEECE and MedSeA, the German BIOACID project, the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme, US (emerging program supported by NSF, NOAA, NASA, USGS) , and Japan MoE and MEXT Ocean Acidification Research Programmes. The proposed activities will require a coordinated international research effort that is closely linked with other international carbon research programs, such as the CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program. The SOLAS-IMBER Working Group on Ocean Acidification (http://www.imber.info/C_WG_SubGroup3.html) and the IOCCP could play roles to coordinate and integrate, at the international level, the research, training and outreach activities. The Global Ocean Acidification Observation Network will benefit from and interface with the data synthesis activities, data archiving and international data management activities of the carbon and ocean acidification programs . The main role of the Global Ocean Acidification Observation Network is to gain a robust understanding of the chemical and biological impacts of ocean acidification by conducting (1) time-series measurements in open ocean and coastal observatories at several levels of organization from molecular to ecosystem level; (2) in-situ manipulations and mesocosm experiments, and autonomous measurements aboard voluntary observing ships; and (3) global and regional monitoring using satellite

data. Cooperation with well established international programs such as the IODP, and forming a global network with good spatial and temporal coverage will be central to its success . The application of genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic approaches to studying oceanic ecosystem may open new opportunities for understanding the organisms control on elemental cycles though time. Robotic in-situ devices deployed on moorings can be powerful tools and are now available as autonomous samplers, to report on genomic data of microbial community composition (Greenfield et al., 2006; 2008; Scholin et al, 2008). Building this global time series to assess changes in ocean chemistry and biology will improve coupling between biogeochemistry, physiology, and modelling and play a major role in provid ing sound scientific evidence to society and decision makers on the consequences of future acidification of oceans, seas and coastal waters and on the time scales required for CO2 emissions reduction to reduce the risks from acidification.9. CONCLUDING REMARKS The rate of change in ocean pH and carbon chemistry is expected to accelerate over this century unless societal decisions reduce CO2 emissions dramatically. Quantifying how these changes are going to affect ecosystem functioning, ocean biogeochemistry and human society is a priority. Emerging technology in the oceanographic community is revolutionizing the way we sample the oceans. An integrated international interdisciplinary program of ship-based hydrography, time-series moorings, floats and gliders with carbon system, pH and oxygen sensors, and ecological surveys is already underway. This network will incorporate new technology to investigate changes at many levels of organization (from molecular to ecosystem level to global) to determine the extent of the large-scale changes in the carbon chemistry of seawater and the associated biological responses to ocean acidification in open ocean as well as coastal environments. Many countries have endorsed these activities, and it will be the responsibility of leading countries and institutions to ensure continuity of these efforts in ocean acidification research and monitoring activities. The Global Ocean Acidification Observation Network will benefit from and interface with the data synthesis activities, data archiving and international data management activities of the carbon and ocean acidification programs.

Acidification destroys the ecosystem- management keySean D. Connell ’13, Professor of Marine Biology at the University of Adelaide, August 26, 2013, “The other ocean acidification problem: CO2 as a resource among competitors for ecosystem dominance," http://royalsocietypublishing.org/content/368/1627/20120442Ocean acidification is often considered in terms of its direct negative effects on the growth and calcification of organisms with calcareous shells or skeletons. We argue that this focus overlooks the important role of ocean acidification as a resource, which can enhance the productivity of algae known to influence the status of kelp forests and coral reefs (i.e. mat-forming algae or mats). We have highlighted how ocean acidification can indirectly tip the competitive balance towards dominance by mats through mechanisms that generate new space (e.g. disturbance or storm events), which enables colonization and persistence of mats rather than the original kelp or coral state.Ocean acidification , therefore, has the capacity to act as a resource that shift s the status of subordinates into dominant competitors. Consequently, human activities that alter the availability of resources have important implications for the relative competitive abilities of major e cosystem components . We suggest that additional stressors will influence the effect of ocean acidification on producers, and that many cumulative impacts may reflect multiplicative rather than additive interactions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we argue that if these synergies involve local stressors, then environmentally mediated ecosystem shifts may be greatly ameliorated by managing local stressors. Nevertheless, there are few assessments of whether management of local processes can weaken the feedbacks that reinforce altered state and enable the reversibility of phase-shifts. Importantly, we suggest that in the face of changing climate (e.g. ocean acidification and temperature),

effective management of local stressors ( e.g. water pollution and overfishing) may have a greater contribution in determining ecosystem states than currently anticipated . Thus, we highlight how ocean acidification has the potential to influence competitive abilities via changes in resource availability, with implications for the stability and persistence of the system as a whole .

Independently causes extinctionRogers 2/17 [Alex Rogers, Scientific Director of IPSO and Professor of Conservation Biology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 2014, “The Ocean’s Death March,” http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/17/the-oceans-death-march/]

This problem is unquestionably serious, and here’s why: The rate of change of ocean pH (measure of acidity) is 10 times

faster than 55 million years ago . That period of geologic history was directly linked to a mass extinction event as levels of CO2 mysteriously went off the charts. Ten times larger is big, very big, when a measurement of 0.1 in change of pH is consistent with significant change! According to C.L.Dybas, On a Collision Course: Oceans Plankton and Climate Change, BioScience, 2006: “This acidification is occurring at a rate [10-to-100] times faster [depending upon the area] than ever recorded.” In other words, as far as science is concerned, the rate of change of pH in the ocean is “off the charts.” Therefore, and as a result, nobody knows how this will play out because there is no known example in geologic history of such a rapid change in pH. This begs the biggest question of modern times, which is: Will ocean acidification cause an extinction event this century, within current lifetimes? The Extinction Event Already Appears to be Underway According to the State of the Ocean Report, d/d October 3,

2013,International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO): “This [acidification] of the ocean is unprecedented in the Earth’s known history. We are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change… The next

mass extinction may have already begun. ” According to Jane Lubchenco, PhD, who is the former director (2009-13) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the effects of acidification are already present in some oyster fisheries, like the West Coast of the U.S. According to Lubchenco: “You can actually see this happening… It’s not something a long way into the future. It is a very big problem,” Fiona Harvey, Ocean Acidification due to Carbon Emissions is at Highest for 300M Years, The Guardian October 2, 2013. And, according to Richard Feely, PhD, (Dep. Of Oceanography, University of Washington) and Christopher Sabine, PhD, (Senior Fellow,

University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean): “If the current carbon dioxide emission

trends continue… the ocean will continue to undergo acidification , to an extent and at rates that have not occurred for tens of millions of years… nearly all marine life forms that build calcium carbonate shells and skeletons studied by scientists thus far have shown deterioration due to increasing carbon dioxide levels in seawater,” Dr. Richard Feely and Dr. Christopher Sabine, Oceanographers, Carbon Dioxide and Our Ocean Legacy, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2006. And, according to Alex Rogers, PhD, Scientific Director of the International Programme on the State of the Ocean, OneWorld (UK) Video, Aug. 2011: “I think if we continue on the current trajectory, we are looking at a mass extinction of marine species

even if only coral reef systems go down , which it looks like they will certainly by the end of the century.”

“Today’s human-induced acidification is a unique event in the geological history of our planet due to its rapid rate of change. An analysis of ocean acidification over the last 300 million years highlights the unprecedented rate of change of the current acidification. The most comparable event 55 million years ago was linked to mass extinctions… At that time, though the rate of change of ocean pH was rapid, it may have been 10 times slower than current change,” IGBP, IOC, SCOR [2013], Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High- CO2 World, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, Sweden, 2013. Fifty-five million years ago, during a dark period of time known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), huge quantities of CO2 were somehow released into the atmosphere, nobody knows from where or how, but temperatures around the world soared by 10 degrees F, and the ocean depths became so corrosive that sea shells simply dissolved rather than pile up on the ocean floor. “Most, if not all,

of the five global mass extinctions in Earth’s history carry the fingerprints of the main symptoms of …

global warming, ocean acidification and anoxia or lack of oxygen. It is these three factors — the ‘deadly trio’ —

which are present in the ocean today. In fact, (the situation) is unprecedented in the Earth’s history because of the high rate and speed of change,” Rogers, A.D., Laffoley, D. d’A. 2011. International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and Impacts, Summary Report, IPSO Oxford, 2011. Zooming in on the Future, circa 2050 – Location: Castello Aragonese Scientists have discovered a real life Petri dish of seawater conditions similar to what will occur by the year 2050, assuming humans continue to emit CO2 at current rates. This real life Petri dish is located in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Castello Aragonese, which is a tiny island that rises straight up out of the sea like a tower. The island is located 17 miles west of Naples. Tourists like to visit Aragonese Castle (est. 474 BC) on the island to see the display of medieval torture devices. But, the real action is offshore, under the water, where Castello Aragonese holds a very special secret, which is an underwater display that gives scientists a window 50 years into the future. Here’s the scoop: A quirk of geology is at work whereby volcanic vents on the seafloor surrounding

the island are emitting (bubbling) large quantities of CO2. In turn, this replicates the level of CO2 scientists expect the ocean to absorb over the

course of the next 50 years. “When you get to the extremely high CO2 almost nothing can tolerate that ,”

according to Jason-Hall Spencer, PhD, professor of marine biology, School of Marine Science and Engineering, Plymouth University (UK), who studies the seawater around Castello Aragonese (Elizabeth Kolbert, The Acid Sea, National Geographic, April, 2011.) The adverse effects of excessive CO2 are found everywhere in the immediate surroundings of the tiny island. For example, barnacles, which are one of the toughest of all sea life, are missing around the base of the island where seawater measurements show the heaviest concentration of CO2. And, within the water, limpets, which wander into the area seeking food, show severe shell dissolution. As a result, their shells are almost completely transparent. Also, the underwater sea grass is a vivid green, which is abnormal because tiny organisms usually coat the blades of sea grass and dull the color, but no such organisms exists. Additionally, sea urchins, which are commonplace further away from the vents, are nowhere to be seen around the island. The only life forms found around Castello Aragonese are jellyfish, sea grass, and algae; whereas, an abundance of underwater sea life is found in the more distant surrounding waters. Thus, the Castello Aragonese Petri dish is essentially a dead sea except for weeds. This explains why Jane Lubchenco, former head of the N ational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, refers to ocean acidification as global warming’s “equally evil twin ,” Ibid. To that end, a slow motion death march is

consuming life in the ocean in real time, and we humans are witnesses to this extinction event .

1AC – Algae Blooms

IOOS solves HABs and waterborne pathogensTom Malone 11, Professor Emeritus and former Director of the Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, PhD in Biology from Stanford University, and Mary Culver, manager of the Applied Sciences Program at the NOAA Coastal Services Center and Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management in Charleston, SC, Ph.D. in Oceanography from the Univ. of Washington, “Managing Public Health Risks: Role of Integrated Ocean Observing Systems (IOOS)” in Oceans and Public Health: Risks and Remedies from the Sea, p 25-26, google booksThe cumulative effects of natural hazards, human activities, and climate change are and will continue to be most pronounced in the coastal zone where people and ecosystem goods and services are most concentrated, exposure to natural hazards is greatest, and inputs of energy and matter from land, sea, and air converge

(Costanza et al, 1993; McKay and Mulvaney, 2001; Nicholls and Small, 2002; Small and Nicholls, 2003). Changes occurring in coastal waters affect public health and well-being, the safety and efficiency of marine operations, and the capacity of ecosystems to support goods and services (including the sustainability of living marine resources and biodiversity). Although these changes tend to be local in scale, they are occurring in coastal ecosystems worldwide and are often local expressions of larger scale variability and change, including both natural and anthropogenic drivers or “forcings”:¶ Natural hazards (Epstein, 1999; Flather, 2000; Michaels et al., 1997)¶ Global warming and sea level rise (Barry et al., 1995; Levitus et al., 2000; Najjar et al., 1999)¶ Basin scale changes in ocean-atmosphere interactions (El Nino Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) (Barber and Chavez, 1986; Beaugrand et al., 2003; Koblinsky and Smith, 2001; Wilkinson et al., 1999)¶ Human alterations of the environment (Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution [GESAMP], 2001; Heinz Center, 2002; Peierls et al., 1991; Vitousek et al., 1997),¶ Exploitation of living resources (Jackson et al., 2001; Myers and

Worm, 2003)¶ Introductions of nonnative species (Carlton, 1996; Hallegraeff, 1998)¶ Each of these drivers of change has been shown to influence human health risks, from exposure to waterborne human pathogens to the toxins produced by harmful algae bloom (HAB) organisms (affecting people through direct contact, inhalation of aerosols, and seafood consumption). The clearest and most direct impacts on the oceans and human health occur in coastal areas that are subject to intense human use (sewage discharge, agriculture and aquaculture practices, human habitation and recreation, fishing, etc.) and are susceptible to flooding from tsunamis, storm surges, and excessive rainfall associated

with tropical storms and monsoons (National Research Council [NRC], 1999). There is also increasing evidence that global scale changes in the abundance and distribution of both waterborne and vector-borne diseases are occurring in response to global warming and changes in the hydrological cycle (Colwell, 1996; Epstein, 1999; Hains and Parry, 1993; Rogers and Packer, 1993).¶

Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Managing Health Risks ¶ The oceans and Great Lakes are conduits for many pathogenic microorganisms and their toxins (Table CS1-3). Their distributions and exposure risks in aquatic systems are governed by their sources; their behavior once introduced into the aquatic environment (e.g., rates of growth, mortality, migration, buoyancy, etc.); their place in the food web; and by water

motions that transport, disperse, or concentrate them. The most effective ways to reduce the immediate cost of lives and human suffering from exposure to waterborne pathogens and harmful algal blooms is to detect

changes in risk more rapidly , provide timely accurate predictions of changes in risk in both time and space, and control the sources (e.g., reduce inputs of untreated sewage wastes that transport pathogens, reduce land-based inputs of anthropogenic nutrients that stimulate some HAB organisms, and reduce the temporal and spatial extent of coastal flooding that can promote events such as cholera epidemics and the growth of HAB organisms).¶ Increases in risk to levels that lead to beach and shellfish bed closures are typically localized, episodic, and

dynamic. Consequently, rapid, timely, and accurate assessments of risk are difficult if not impossible based on traditional sampling regimes (e.g. monthly or biweekly monitoring of sewage outfalls and daily shoreline sampling at a limited number of beach

sites). Remote sensing and the development of species-specific in situ sensors for waterborne pathogens and HABs thus have great potential for providing the means to address these challenges.¶ For example, satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides high resolution (<100 m) active microwave observations of sea surface roughness that are independent of cloud cover and time of day. At surface wind speeds between 2 m sec-1 and 7 m sec-1, areas with biogenic or anthropogenic surfactant films that dampen small waves are detected by SAR as patterns of low backscatter return. Studies in the Southern California Bight illustrate the ability of SAR to detect and track the fate of storm-water runoff and sewage discharge (DiGiacomo et al., 2004; Svejkovsky and Jones, 2001). In combination with field surveys, land-based high-frequency radar,

and numerical models, these studies demonstrate the potential for rapid detection and timely predictions that can be used to inform management and mitigation decisions that reduce public health risks and increase the economic and social

value of beaches and living resources. The IOOS provides a platform for achieving these objectives .

Solves, and existing systems are insufficientTom Malone 11, Professor Emeritus and former Director of the Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, PhD in Biology from Stanford University, and Mary Culver,

manager of the Applied Sciences Program at the NOAA Coastal Services Center and Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management in Charleston, SC, Ph.D. in Oceanography from the Univ. of Washington, “Managing Public Health Risks: Role of Integrated Ocean Observing Systems (IOOS)” in Oceans and Public Health: Risks and Remedies from the Sea, p 30-31, google booksHarmful algal blooms and waterborne pathogens are important cases in point. Ecosystem-based management strategies are aimed at preventing HABs (e.g., reduce nutrient loading) and pathogen contamination (e.g., sewage

treatment) before they occur, mitigating their effects (e.g., close shellfish beds, close beaches, move net pens of cultured

salmon) and controlling them once they occur (e.g., reducing their magnitude, containing their distribution). Achieving these objectives requires the development of four related capabilities for both implementing adaptive management and

assessing their efficacy: More rapid detection of waterborne pathogens, and HAB organisms and their toxins Timely predictions of where and when public health risks are likely to be unacceptably high Timely forecasts of trajectories and contaminated water masses in time and space Products developed that provide relevant information at the appropriate time and

space scales and in the format needed for the user community to implement prevention, mitigation, and control strategies Rapid detection is a high priority for both waterborne pathogens and HABs, and molecular techniques offer a way forward. For example, species-specific DNA probes from ribosomal sequences have the potential to provide accurate and rapid diagnostic tools for the evaluation of environmental samples (NRC, 1999). When combined with polymerase chain reaction (PCR), these probes allow detection of an increasing number of pathogens and indicators. The recent application of real-time PCR to field diagnostics of microbial pathogens reveals the potential of this approach for rapid and reliable detection of pathogens in aquatic systems. The IOOS will provide a platform for testing and deploying sensors that directly measure biological and chemical variables, such as pathogens and toxins, in near real-time to verify the location and intensity of events. To the extent that allochtonous waterborne pathogens behave as passive particles with known half-lives and their sources are well documented and quantified, the development of operational nowcasting and forecasting abilities depends primarily on more rapid detection of pathogens and increases in the spatial resolution of hydrodynamic models. The HAB challenge is more complex. It will not be possible to develop operational models for HAB prediction based on environmental conditions until the combination of environmental factors that promote the growth and accumulation of one species over others are quantified and physical-biological interactions are parameterized (e.g., how environmental factors such as turbulence, advective transport, light, nutrient, grazing, and inherent biological attributes interact with each other to favor the development of a given species). Developing this capacity will require significant advances in our understanding of the processes of species succession, in the development of coupled, data assimilating physical-ecological models; and in the capacity to estimate the distribution and abundance of HAB species and toxins rapidly with time-space estimates of physical and chemical fields using a combination of in situ and remote sensing techniques. These include (1) more accurate estimates of sea surface chlorophyll a and accessory pigment fields on space scales of < 1 km based on ocean leaving radiance measurements from satellites and aircraft (improve the skill of coastal algorithms and increase spatial resolution), (2) long-term, high resolution time series by instrumenting moorings and fixed platforms with sensors to measure apparent optical properties and nutrient concentrations (N, P, Si) synoptically with temperature, salinity, currents, and waves; (3) techniques for rapid, species-specific identification and enumeration, including near real-time measurement and telemetry of HAB cell densities; (4) techniques for more rapid measurement of HAB toxins, including in situ detection and near real-time telemetry; and (5) rapid access to data from both in situ and satellite-based observations. Until then, statistical models will be used to predict where and when HABs are likely to occur based on historical records of the location, frequency, and magnitude of HABs or on correlations of HABs with environmental variables or indices. This not only places a high priority on research (predictive models, real-time sensing technologies), it places a high priority on detection: initially, IOOS must focus on the development of the capacity to detect HAB organisms and toxins routinely and rapidly in the context of changes in the distribution of key environmental factors. To these ends, priority should be placed on the establishment of a global network of sentinel (early warning) and reference (to develop climatologies of HABs and associated environmental conditions) stations for long-term time series observations and the development of an integrated data communications and management system for rapid access to and dissemination of data on HAB organisms’ abundance, toxin concentrations, and key environmental variables (temperature, salinity, surface waves and currents, concentrations of inorganic and organic forms of N, P and Si). This information from an IOOS system integrated with epidemiological data on symptoms and diseases in human and animal populations will provide a comprehensive data source to assess the risks and health impacts associated with HABs. Programs such as those described in the Gulf of Mexico and Great Lakes and others on

the U.S. West Coast , in Washington state, southern California, and central California, provide early warning systems for HABs, but they will have a limited lifetime unless they are made operational as part

of a multipurpose, integrated observing system for the oceans, Great Lakes, and coastal ecosystems. The incorporation of well-tested detection and forecasting systems for HABs and pathogens into the IOOS bridges the gap between advances in science and the application of these advances to develop information products for the public good .

Sensing images key to prevent algal blooms from destroying fish stocksRobinson, 10 (Ian, 2010, Discovering the Ocean from Space [electronic resource] The unique applications of satellite oceanography / by Ian S. Robinson., BA and MA Mechanical Sciences, Cambridge University, PhD Engineering Magneto-hydrodynamics, University of Warwick, 1973, Higher and Senior Scientific Officer, Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, Bidston, Lecturer, senior lecturer and reader, University of Southampton Department of Oceanography, Head of Department of Oceanography, Professor, University of Southampton School of Ocean and Earth Science, Professorial Fellow, Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, JPL) However, there are some aspects of aquaculture management in which remote sensing does offer benefits, and has the potential to be used operationally. These are concerned with providing warning of marine environmental hazards that come from the coastal sea adjacent to a sheltered bay or estuary where a fish farm is located. This is the circumstance where information supplied from satellites about the wider geographical context is useful. Physical hazards such as storms or anomalous wave conditions are best predicted through routine meteorological forecasting, and do not benefit from specific remote-sensing input other than that already assimilated in wind and wave forecasts (see Chapter 8). However, the hazard of harmful algal blooms, which can be catastrophic for fish stocks, is one problem in which remote sensing can play a role if circumstances are appropriate. Sometimes an algal bloom originates

from some distance away, and it may be just chance circumstances of wind and tid e which bring it towards the aquaculture site. Such blooms can be monitored from space (Yin et al., 1999) using a combination of ocean color

and SST sensors.

Fishery management prevents extinctionVOA, 10(Voice of America News, “Bluefin Tuna Endangered by Overfishing,” 12/1, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Bluefin-Tuna-Endangered-by-Overfishing--111159869.html)

Predatory fish are at the top of the ocean food chain. They help keep the balance of marine life in check . Without their eating habits, an overabundance of smaller organisms might affect the entire underwater ecosystem. Some scientists say such a shift could lead to a total collapse of the oceans . Yet so far, those in charge of regulating international fisheries have done little to protect at least one endangered species. Scientists say this species is on the brink of extinction… and it is all our fault. "Nobody's free of blame in this game," said Kate Wilson. Kate Willson is an investigative journalist who recently exposed what she says is a $4-billion, black market trade in the sale of bluefin tuna. "Scientists tell us that when a top predator like bluefin or another big fish is depleted, that will affect the entire ecosystem ," she said. "Scientists say

you better get used to eating jellyfish sashimi and algae burgers if you let these large fish become depleted because they anchor the ecosystem." Ecosystems are how living things interact with their environments and each other. Scientists agree they can change dramatically if a link disappears from the food chain. Government officials and members of environmental groups met in Paris in mid-November to discuss fishing regulations that may affect all life on Earth. Sue Lieberman is Director of International Policy with

the Pew Environment Group: a Washington-based, non-profit agency. She says the bluefin is in jeopardy . "The fish is in worse shape than we thought, and that's why we're calling for the meeting of this commission to suspend this fishery ... to put on the brakes and say, 'let's stop," said Sue Lieberman. "Let's stop mismanaging and start managing the right way to ensure a future for this species.'" Both Lieberman and

Willson say that greed, corruption and poor management of fishing quotas brought us to this point. "The quotas are designed to let fish recover, but quotas are more than scientists recommend, but even within quotas, there's consistent lack of enforcement , fraud, fish being traded without documents to the point where it's a multibillion dollar business that will cause the depletion of an incredible species," said Lieberman. Willson says that fishing the bluefin to near-extinction followed increased Japanese demand for fresh sushi starting in the 1970s and 80s. And fishing practices that target the two primary regions in which blue fin spawn: the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea. "You don't need a PhD in fisheries to know that's really not very smart," said Sue Lieberman. "If you want the species to continue into the future, you don't take them when they come to breed." And that practice shines light on a bigger problem. "Ninety per cent of all large fish it's estimated have been depleted," said Kate Wilson. "Bluefin is just a bellwether for what's happening to what's left of the world's large fish." "We're not saying there should be no fishing, but we are saying there should be no fishing like that," said Lieberman. "This isn't single individuals with a pole and a line; this isn't recreational fishermen; this is massive, industrial scale fishing. Governments can change this; this isn't an environmental threat that we throw up our hands and there's nothing to do about it." "If countries really want to protect the remaining stocks of bluefin, they have to get serious about enforcing the rules and listening to

their scientists when they set catch limits," said Wilson. "Management of fish species on the high seas is n't just about making

sure people have nice seafood when they go to a restaurant; it's about the very future of our planet ," continued Lieberman.

"And we have to get management of the oceans correct and we can't keep … and governments can't keep acting like we'll take care of that next year. We'll worry about making money in the short term, we'll listen to the fishing industry; we'll worry about the ocean & the environment later. We don't have that luxury."

2AC – Yes Acidification

And we're reaching a tipping point, uncontrolled warming will annihilate human life if we allow the oceans to continue absorbing CO2.Reuters 2010 "Oceans Choking on CO2, Face Deadly Changes: Study" http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65H0LI20100618?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2Fenvironment+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Environment%29

Oceans were rapidly warming and acidifying, water circulation was being altered and dead zones within the ocean depths were expanding, said the report. There has also been a decline in major ocean ecosystems like kelp forests and coral reefs and the marine food chain was breaking down, with fewer and smaller fish and more frequent diseases and pests among marine organisms. "If we continue down this pathway we get into conditions which have no analog to anything we've experienced," said Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the Global Change Institute at The University of Queensland. Hoegh-Guldberg said oceans were the Earth's "heart and lungs", producing half of the world's oxygen and absorbing 30 percent of man-made carbon dioxide. " We are entering a period in which the very ocean services upon which humanity depends are undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail," said Hoegh-Guldberg. "Quite plainly, the Earth cannot do without its ocean . This is further evidence that we are well on the way to the next great extinction event ." More than 3.5 billion people depend on the ocean for their primary source of food and in 20 years this number could double, the report's authors say. The world's climate has remained stable for several thousand years, but climate change in the past 150 years is now forcing organisms to change rapidly -- changes that through evolution would normally take a long time, said the report. "We are becoming increasingly certain that the world's marine ecosystems are approaching tipping points . These tipping points are where change accelerates and causes unrelated impacts on other systems," said co-author marine scientist John F. Bruno at the University of North Carolina. Last week, the head of the United Nations Environment Program, Achim Steiner, said it was crucial the world responded to the loss of coral reefs, forests and other ecosystems "that generate multi-trillion dollar services that underpin all life-including economic life-on Earth".

Fisheries I/L

Data is key to fishery managementKoslow 2009J. Anthony, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, The role of acoustics in ecosystem-based fishery management ICES J. Mar. Sci. (2009)

The potential that acoustics might play in fishery operations and research was recognized before World War II (Sund, 1935; Balls, 1948), and acoustic technology has continued to co-evolve since then with fishery research needs. Calibrated acoustic instruments are now standard quantitative tools for fishery research and stock assessment. Although the role of the environment in regulating fish population dynamics has been recognized for a century (Hjort, 1914), conventional fisheries management has until recently focused on the exploited stocks, with the primary objective of estimating the maximum sustainable yield or some variant: e.g. optimum sustainable yield or F0.1. However, recent years have witnessed a significant paradigm shift, with a growing consensus that single-species stock assessment alone is not sufficient to manage fisheries sustainably (Pikitch et al., 2004). Ecosystem-based fishery management ( EBFM ) is predicated upon the need to assess broader fishery effects on the ecosystem, i.e. on the predators, competitors, and prey of the exploited species, as well as on bycatch species and the essential habitat. Therefore, the role of exploited species must be assessed within the ecosystem where they live. The effects of changing environmental conditions on recruitment to exploited populations must also be understood and, if possible, predicted, so that the exploitation levels can be adjusted to achieve sustainability. Marine ecosystems change across a range of time-scales, e.g. interannual, ENSO (the El Nino–Southern Oscillation), decadal, etc., and the equilibrium generally assumed in management models has long been recognized to be a convenient and artificial construct (Isaacs, 1976). However, the quest for predictive models of fishery recruitment, based on an understanding of the underlying oceanographic mechanisms, has generally proved disappointing, although Hjort (1914) set out the main hypotheses that regulate recruitment variability almost a century ago. The broader ecosystem effects of environmental variability, i.e. the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on predators, prey, bycatch, and other affected species, must also be evaluated. Therefore, the expectation that fishery management will now be based on ecosystem considerations, as well as on traditional, single-species assessments, poses a considerable challenge to oceanographers and fishery scientists. Ocean models are best developed for the physics of ocean circulation. As one adds chemistry and biology—the phytoplankton initially, then the zooplankton—they become progressively less developed with poorer predictive power. The so-called “end-to-end” models that extend from the physics to the fish are particularly challenging and generally poorly developed to date.

2AC – Fishery Impact

Causes violent confrontations over declining fishing stocksLt. John Garofolo 98, “Protecting America’s Fisheries,” Coast Guard, May 1998, http://www.uscg.mil/history/articles/Fisheries.pdfNMFS estimates 96 species of fish and shellfish are endangered or at risk in the EEZ.¶ The recreational and commercial fishing industry has an economic impact of more than $20 billion to the United States, employing tens of thousands of people and providing a food source for

millions of Americans. ¶ The United States has the largest EEZ in the world , 2.25million square miles, containing an estimated

20 percent of the world's fisheries resources.¶ There are also a significant number of marine mammals at risk, or endangered, including

the Northern Right Whale, with approximately 300 in existence.¶ The United States is the fifth largest fishing nation in the world, with approximately 110,000 commercial vessels. The capacity of the U.S. fishing fleet alone far exceeds all fish stocks' capabilities to reproduce. Many U.S. fisheries are threatened by over-capitalization of the industry, exces sive incidental by-catch and habitat degradation. Increased effort by U.S. fishers results in a reduction of spawnings tock and an increase in the harvest of immature fish.¶ Habitat degradation has occurred due to massive water diversions for agricultural projects and the negative impact of urban

development.¶ In recent years on an international level, competition for declining resources has resulted in a number of violent confrontations as some of the world's fishers resort to ille gal activity .¶ Some of these unfortunate

incidents include:¶ • Three Thai fishermen who were killed by Vietnamese maritime authorities.¶ • Two Spanish fishermen were injured when their vessel was fired on by a Portuguese patrol boat within Portuguese waters.¶ • The Canadian patrol vessel fired at a Spanish boat illegally fishing in an internationally patrolled area in

theNorth Atlantic.¶ • A Russian Border Guard ship fired on two Japanese ves sels thought to be poaching ; one ship was hit, and fishers on board were injured.¶ • An Argentine gunboat fired on and sank a Taiwan fishing vessel.¶ • A patrol boat from the Falklands chased a Taiwan

fishing vessel more than 4,000 miles.¶ These, and other similar incidents underscore the high stakes being played out across the

world as declining fish stocks put increasing pressure on fishing nations to under take more aggressive

action . In the future, fishing treaties will become the source of greater diplomatic attention.

IOOS K2 Management

Full implementation of IOOS is key to effective ocean managementDr. Andrew A. Rosenberg 9, Ph.D. in Biology from Dalhousie University, Prof of Natural Resources at the University of New Hampshire, former Deputy Director of the NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service, and Dr. Paul A. Sandifer, Ph.D. in Marine Science from the University of Virginia, Chief Science Advisor for NOAA’s National Ocean Service, “What Do Managers Need?” Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based Management for the Oceans, http://www.pelagicos.net/MARS6910_spring2013/readings/EBM_for_the_Oceans_ch2.pdfOne ray of hope is provided by the recently released national Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy developed by the US Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (JSOST 2007). This is the first comprehensive ocean research plan that involves every agency of the US government concerned in any way with ocean research. The overarching goal of the plan is “to provide the guidance to build the scientific foundation to improve society’s stewardship and use of, and interaction with, the ocean.” The plan focuses on three central elements of ocean science and technology: (1) capability to forecast ocean and ocean-influenced processes and phenomena, (2) development of scientific support for EBM, and (3) deployment of an ocean-observing sys-tem. These three--ocean forecasting, EBM, and ocean observing--permeate the entire document and its twenty national research priori-ties organized within six societal themes. The JSOST (2007) further recognized the breadth of scientific support and integration that would be needed to implement EBM, stating that a multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary effort to enhance current understanding of ecosystem processes, determine which interactions are most critical, and assess the dynamics of the natural

and human factors affecting those interactions would be necessary (see also box2.4). Full development and implementation of the Integrated Ocean Observing System(IOOS) and other ocean and coastal observatories will provide a foundation of

monitoring data that could enable and enhance manage-ment in many ocean sectors . An IOOS that in-cludes not only high-resolution measurements in time and space of the physical and chemical properties within an ecosystem , but also bio-logical attributes, and that incorporates high-resolution data on human

activities within that ecosystem, would open up a n entirely new world of information for management . Such a system and its related information flows would enable forecasting of ocean processes and phenomena, including severe storms, currents, status of fishery stocks and other biological resources, and human health risks. The requi-site tools are rapidly becoming available , with a variety of data collection methods ‰from mea-surements of waves, temperature, currents,and productivity in real time with buoys, satellites, and radar to the monitoring of fishing activity with vessel-monitoring systems, and shipping with automated identification sys-tems (USCOP 2004), and even development of a wide range of biological sensors (JSOST 2007;

Sandifer et al. 2007). Using these new tools would allow management to operate on a spatial and temporal resolution that has never before been possible . However, developing new management strategies and tactics that can take advantage

of such high-resolution in-formation is an important area for growth and research.

US Oceans impact

Preserving US marine ecosystems is key to avoid extinction and global biosphere collapseRobin Kundis Craig 3, Associate Professor of Law, focusing on Environmental Law, at Indiana University School of Law, Winter 2003, “ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii,” 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, lexisBiodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste treatment is another significant, non-

extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global

geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms , carbon,

nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements." n858 In a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life . ¶ Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity.¶ [*265] ¶ Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many

otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860¶ Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide . Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness.¶ However, economic value, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of

human activities on marine ecosystems. The U nited S tates has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems

because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans , but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though

we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine

marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.¶ We may not know much about the sea, but we

do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves , and we will take most of the biosphere with us . The Black Sea is almost dead, n863 its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies, "starving out fish and dolphins, emptying fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into brainless, wraith-like blobs of jelly." n864 More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique.¶ The Black Sea is a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. The stresses piled up: overfishing, oil spills, industrial discharges, nutrient pollution, wetlands destruction, the introduction of an alien species. The sea weakened, slowly at first, then collapsed with [*266] shocking suddenness. The lessons of this tragedy should not be lost to the rest of us, because much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world. The ecological stresses imposed on the Black Sea were not unique to communism. Nor, sadly, was the failure of governments to respond to the emerging crisis. n865¶ Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appear with increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers, forcing marine animals to flee and killing all that cannot. n866 Ethics as

well as enlightened self-interest thus suggest that the U nited S tates should protect fully-functioning

marine ecosystems wherever possible - even if a few fishers go out of business as a result.

US Coasts Impact

Effective coastal conservation in the US is key to human survivalJeronimo Pan 13, PhD in Marine and Atmospheric Sciences from Stony Brook University; Dr. M. Alejandra Marcoval, Research Scientist at the Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata in Argentina; Sergio M. Bazzini, Micaela V. Vallina, and Silvia G. De Marco, “Coastal Marine Biodiversity Challenges and Threats,” Chapter 2 in Marine Ecology in a Changing World, p. 44, google booksCoastal areas provide critical ecological services such as nutrient cycling , flood control, shoreline

stability , beach replenishment and genetic resources (Post and Lundin 1996, Scavia et al. 2002). Some estimates by

Boesch (1999), mention that the ocean and coastal systems contribute 63% of the total value of Earth’s ecosystem services (worth $21 trillion year1). Population growth is a major concern for coastal areas with more than 50% of the world

population concentrated within 60 km of the coast (Post and Lundin 1996); in the United States the expected tendency for the next decades is that the coastal population will increase by ~25% (Scavia et al. 2002). The continued growth of human population and of per capita consumption have resulted in unsustainable

exploitation of Earth’s bio logical diversity , exacerbated by climate change, ocean acidification, and other

anthropogenic environmental impacts . The effective conservation of biodiversity is essential for

human survival and the maintenance of ecosystem processes.

Seapower Advantage

1AC Sea Power Advantage

Ocean observations insufficient now – decaying sensors and underfunding. Makes long term prediction impossible.Gagosian 2014Robert B., President and CEO of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership Before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science, April 25, 2014 http://oceanleadership.org/wp-content/uploads/FY15-Senate-CJS-OWT.pdf

Recent hypotheses suggest that the extreme weather events we have had this past year may be attributable to a persistent shift in the jet stream due to a rapidly melting polar region as well as a warmer North Pacific Ocean. If this is the case, ice storms in Mobile, Alabama or monsoon-like rain events in Boulder, Colorado, may become more frequent, along with their significant economic costs. Unfortunately, as the demand for more and better data and information to understand ocean and atmospheric trends increases, we are instead losing our capabilities to collect data at sea and

from space to build more capable and accurate long-term forecasts . For instance, the inability to service the buoys

comprising the TAO Array (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project in the equatorial Pacific) has resulted in a degradation of the data return rate to just 40 percent capacity from an optimally operating system2 . This situation greatly reduces our ability to accurately forecast El Niño and La Niña strengths and thus risks proper preparation to deal with episodes of droughts and flooding. Given that the ocean absorbs, stores and transfers most of the heat (and a high percentage of the carbon) on our planet, the ability to understand, forecast and prepare for extreme weather events requires investments in basic research to better understand air-ice-sea interactions as well as observations of the physical environment from space, land and sea. Without this basic knowledge and prediction capabilities on regional and seasonal scales, we are essentially flying blind in terms of managing resources (e.g.

agriculture, fisheries, freshwater) and protecting public health. There are many major natural threats facing our nation and significant challenges ahead in understanding, forecasting and mitigating them, all of which require significant financial resources. We believe that our appropriations requests would enable our nation to maintain the assets and capabilities necessary to better understand the physical, chemical, geological and biological changes to the natural environment and use this information to help Congress, state and local governments, businesses and private individuals make informed and fiscally responsible economic and national security, public health and safety, and resource management decisions. NSF Basic Research The National Science Foundation (NSF) is our top funding priority as it is the premier federal agency tasked with supporting basic research, which underpins all future scientific advances. As you know, NSF is the only federal agency with the mission of supporting basic research, and has been a primary force in providing support for discoveries that have driven our nation’s economy through innovation. Historically, Congress has appropriated top line numbers for the agency and has refrained from directing the course of the agency’s research agenda or setting science or infrastructure priorities for the agency. We hope that this policy will continue so the Foundation can continue to make decisions based on the highest quality peer reviewed science, rather than politics. Given the tremendous recent impact that natural hazards have had on our nation’s economy and public welfare, we believe that investing in the geosciences is critical to advance our knowledge of the physical world, while social and behavioral sciences can improve our ability to understand and communicate key scientific findings and risks to the public and policymakers, who must deal with a rapidly changing planet. We hope that NSF can continue to fund the best minds in the nation through competitive research grants, while mission agencies such as NOAA and NASA can support applied research and observational requirements to ensure our nation has the intellectual capacity to develop and deal with the next generation of challenges. Thus, we request that Congress appropriate $140 million in additional funding for the “Research and Related Accounts” to at least match anticipated inflationary costs, but preferably above this level to maintain a positive trajectory enhancing NSF capacity to support its research mission. NOAA Research and Observations The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

requires timely, accurate, and sensitive observations of the planet to meet its many missions and mandates. Given the austere budget environment, we believe that NOAA can better accomplish its scientific requirements in a more effective way through partnerships with the extramural academic and industrial communities, rather than relying solely on their own internal scientific capability. The majority of scientific research expertise in areas such as climate, ocean acidification, ocean exploration, instrument development, data dissemination and fisheries management resides in the academic and industrial sectors. A greater commitment to extramural competitive peer-review grant opportunities to answer the key questions necessary to assess trends, make forecasts, and manage resources in a changing environment would improve efficiency and extend NOAA's access to the best minds in the nation. We remain concerned about the nation's earth observing satellite programs and the ability to maintain continuity of long-term data sets. We encourage NOAA to follow the NESDIS Independent Review Team's (IRT) recommendations for procurement models for missions beyond J2 that will not only reduce costs but also mitigate against data gaps. Implementing all the missions as an integrated program could save the agency tens of millions of dollars. These savings could help address other needs, such as recapitalization of the oceanographic fleet to

help service the TAO Array, or supporting a more robust ocean exploration program. Ultimately, we need the polar observing system to be more resilient and more capable, which requires a more integrated approach to weather and climate research, monitoring and modeling. Moving NOAA's climate sensors to NASA without the resources to support their construction and operation defeats this purpose. Consequently, we hope you will continue your close oversight of the federal Earth observing programs to help ensure that satellite missions can be cost- efficient, reliable, and effective. Of course, the ocean also impacts life beyond weather, climate and extreme events. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was a tragedy with loss of life, economic impacts and long-term ecological implications for the Gulf

region. The fact that it took so long to identify and track the location of the massive subsurface oil plume in the water column or forecast its trajectory highlights the significant shortcomings of the existing ocean and coastal observing systems. Consequently, we need to make sure that we are better prepared for the next spill, especially given offshore oil exploration in the Arctic and now proposed for the Atlantic coast. Ideally, there should be significant coordination between NOAA and the National Academies of Sciences (NAS) with regards to the use of criminal and civil settlement funds and fines. We have a unique opportunity to build a sustainable ocean and coastal observing system that will better enable the Gulf region to identify and prepare for future problems, such as oil spills, red tides, and hypoxic events, while also better managing their marine living resources. I hope this opportunity is not lost given the significant funds that will flow into the region. We are disheartened by the Administration’s extremely low funding request for NOAA’s Education programs, including the elimination of the competitive program, which in the past has supported successful initiatives such as the National Ocean Sciences Bowl (NOSB). For the last sixteen years, NOSB has exposed 26,000 students to a field of study not commonly offered in high school, which enhances student understanding of all major areas of science, technology, engineering and mathematics. We greatly appreciate your historical support for education programs at the mission agencies, and we hope that the Administration will take a more transparent and deliberative planned approach to improving our nation’s STEM education programs in the future.

Two internal links – first is information dominance

Long term forecasting is key to the Navy’s maritime awareness and readiness.West 2007Dick, Consortium for Ocean Leadership and Retired Rear Admiral USN, http://oceanleadership.org/files/MDA_Proceedings_lowres.pdf

Working toward complete M aritime D omain A wareness will require utilizing the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) to provide the data and operations necessary to perform assessments such as forecasts and observations. A fully operable IOOS will integrate the regional systems and allow research data to be fully interoperable for a wide variety of operational needs. In most situations, real-time data and a fully integrated system allow for assessments to have a higher degree of spatial and temporal variables, greater impact from sensor or weapon performance, and a better reaction time to threats. Limiting factors to accomplishing this include the lack of accessible data due to security issues, lack of fully developed databases, and compatibility issues with data collection . Another limiting factor, and consequently the most important, is the difficult transition from research information to an operational system. Possible solutions to making such a transition easier include co-locating researchers and operations staff and keeping inter-agency cooperation a high priority. Being able to develop that transition from research to usable information will contribute to building IOOS stronger and more usable for the different customers including the military and assisting them with what they need to have Maritime Domain Awareness.

Oceanographic data is key sea power – information dominance.Titley 2010RAdm. David W. Titley, Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy, January 2010 https://www.sea-technology.com/features/2010/0110/naval_oceanography.html

There is a growing recognition within the U.S. Navy that information is evolving from a supporting function to a main battery of 21st century American sea power. In response, the chief of naval operations (CNO) this year reorganized his staff

around the creation of an Information Dominance Directorate. As part of this initiative, naval oceanography is joining other information-centric capabilities—including intelligence, information technology, information warfare and the space cadre—in what the CNO has designated as the Information Dominance Corps. Environmental data collection and processing, long a staple of naval oceanography, is a key contributor to decision superiority . For the naval oceanography community, raw data are turned into actionable information using a concept known as “Battlespace on Demand,” a four-tiered construct that begins with the collection of environmental data from an array

of remote and in-theater sensors. At the second tier, these data are used to characterize and predict the environment using two supercomputing centers and trained specialists . The third tier is translating the predicted environment into fleet and joint force war-fighting impacts. At the final tier, this information facilitates decision superiority by informing options, courses of action, sensor employment, asset allocation and timing, and the quantification of risk based on environmental considerations. Sensing Technology

Information dominance depends on cutting-edge technology , and the naval oceanography community continues to

work with national laboratories, research institutions and universities, and the commercial technology community to ensure we maintain that edge. The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for monitoring the marine environment is a subject of continuing interest and investment. This year, the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command awarded a contract to Teledyne Brown Engineering Inc. (Huntsville, Alabama) to design the littoral battlespace sensing glider (LBS-G). The contract could deliver up to 150 Slocum gliders between fiscal year (FY) 2011 and FY 2015 if all options are exercised. These autonomously operated vehicles are configured to carry an array of sensors for collecting environmental data. The command also released a University of Washington Seaglider from the icebreaker U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy (WAGB-20) while operating in the Chukchi Sea. Data from the glider will improve the performance and aid in the evaluation of oceanographic computer models for the Arctic. The Naval Oceanographic Office recently took delivery of a Hydroid Inc. (Pocasset, Massachusetts) REMUS 600 AUV to apply multibeam technology to accurate bottom mapping. This system contains an inertial navigation system, a Doppler-aided bottom velocity sonar and acoustic transponder position updates that will greatly improve vehicle positioning capabilities. The oceanographer of the Navy is also investing in a modified version of the T-AGS oceangoing military survey vessel, T-AGS 66, which will include a moon pool for the deployment and retrieval of unmanned vehicles. Numerical Modeling As technological advances increase sensing capabilities, there will be more data available to give us a higher resolution look at environmental parameters, but that also means we need greater capacity with numerical models to enhance our predictive capabilities. This year, 1,300 separate products were produced to support combat forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, more than 40 ports were surveyed to provide a baseline for mine countermeasure efforts and on-demand weather modeling requirements increased by almost 10 percent. A significant advancement this year was the integration of the Navy Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer into the Navy’s global atmospheric model to incorporate time variability through previous model runs. This allows the adaptation of observational data into the model run regardless of when the information was sampled and provides the ability to identify trends in the data and get a better initialization before the model starts its run. One challenge of protecting against piracy attacks off the Horn of Africa is the vast amount of sea space that must be covered. To assist in this effort, the Piracy Performance Surface Model was developed to forecast probable concentrations of pirate activity based on weather, sea conditions and the latest analysis from the intelligence community. Hosting the world’s most extensive oceanographic database at the Department of Defense Supercomput-ing Resource Center in Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, the Naval Ocean-ographic Office has expanded its capabilities so that oceanographic numerical modeling is now on par with our ability to model the atmosphere at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Monterey, California. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, jointly developed by the Navy and NOAA, is under final validation and on the verge of becoming operational. This model maintains the high horizontal resolution of the Navy’s global ocean model, which takes into consideration the influence of atmospheric winds on the ocean surface, but also allows for variable vertical resolution to account for coastal, nearshore impacts on the ocean thermal structure. This year has seen progress toward the pursuit of partnerships to enhance the capabilities of environmental modeling. The National Unified Operational Prediction Capability is an integration effort of Navy, U.S. Air Force and NOAA models to support unparalleled global

modeling capability that can be adapted by individual agencies for specific applications. Another partnership formed this year was between the Navy, DOER Marine (Alameda, California) and Google Inc. to integrate archived Navy ocean data into the new ocean segment of Google Earth. This will serve to help educate the public on the ocean and expand digital ocean data holdings, enhancing the Navy’s ability to process, create and search oceanographic products in an effort to better maintain the safety of the fleet and enhance war-fighter effectiveness. Climate Change

We will need these partnerships to help us develop models that will improve our understanding of the changing conditions in the Arctic and global climate change in general. The Department of Defense is aware of the challenges and opportunities climate change will present in the future. Last May, the CNO created Task Force Climate Change to make recommendations to Navy leadership regarding policy, strategy, force structure and investments relating first to the changing Arctic and subsequently to global climate change. The oceanographer of the Navy was appointed to lead the task force, which includes representatives from various Navy and Coast Guard staffs, program offices and fleet commands, and NOAA.

Second is Undersea Warfare

Long term forecasting is key to undersea warfare – sonar performance.Heidt 2009Sarah L., Lieutenent USN, Long-range atmosphere-ocean forecasting in support of undersea warfare operations in the western north Pacific, Naval postgraduate school thesis, https://calhoun.nps.edu/public/bitstream/handle/10945/4516/09Sep_Heidt.pdf?sequence=1

The mission of the Navy's meteorology and oceanography (METOC) community is to provide critical atmospheric and oceanographic information that will enhance commanders' awareness of the operational environment and the ability to exploit that awareness to gain an advantage across the range of military operations (Joint Staff 2008). This mission is particularly important when planning and executing undersea warfare ( USW ) operations and exercises, where small changes in the atmospheric and oceanic environment can have large impacts on acoustic sensor performance. Correctly forecasting the atmosphere and ocean at long lead times is imperative for the successful planning of operations in USW. Giving commanders a more realistic characterization of the battle space will allow for more informed decision making. Understanding Earth's climate system is a critical factor in improving long- range forecasts (LRFs, forecasts with lead times of two weeks or longer). While the civilian community has taken many steps toward understanding climate variations and developing new forecasting technology, the Department of Defense (DoD) currently uses legacy climate products based on long term means (LTMs). Research by LaJoie (2006), Vorhees (2006), Hanson (2007), Moss (2007), Twigg (2007), Turek (2008), Crook (2009), and Ramsaur (2009), have all demonstrated the significance of using advanced climate data sets and methods to increase awareness at long lead times, of potential climate impacts on military operations. Several of these studies have led to the development of advanced forecasting techniques and resulted in viable LRFs of operationally significant regions (e.g., Iraq and Afghanistan).

Civilian data is key – Navy products are based on long term MEANS instead of long term FORECASTS. Forecasting best allows planning and execution of undersea warfare missions.Heidt 2009Sarah L., Lieutenent USN, Long-range atmosphere-ocean forecasting in support of undersea warfare operations in the western north Pacific, Naval postgraduate school thesis, https://calhoun.nps.edu/public/bitstream/handle/10945/4516/09Sep_Heidt.pdf?sequence=1

. Non-DoD Datasets and Methods Civilian agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate

Prediction Center (CPC), and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have surpassed the Department of Defense in their

use of state of the science technology to develop advanced datasets and methods to analyze and

forecast the climate system . In many cases, this technology is freely available to the public. However, the Navy has adapted and used very little of this technology to advance Navy climate prediction capabilities. ESRL provides public access to a number of climate datasets through their interactive, web-based plotting and analysis tools. These tools, and an atmospheric reanalysis dataset developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), were extensively used in our study and will be further discussed in Chapter II. In this study, it is important to differentiate between a state of the science reanalysis dataset and a LTM-based climatology dataset. In our study, we used the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis dataset and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) ocean

reanalysis dataset. Unlike LTM based climatology datasets (e.g., GDEM), reanalysis datasets are constructed by

integrating observations obtained from numerous data sources together within a numerical prediction model, through a process called data assimilation (CCSP 2008). The result is a continuous and spatially

uniform, reconstructed analysis of past atmospheric and/or oceanic conditions, typically spanning 30 years or longer. Ocean reanalysis datasets, like SODA, have significant advantages over LTM based datasets , like GDEM, because of their explicit representation of atmospheric and ocean dynamics, and their much higher temporal resolution that can capture climate variations and other temporal fluctuations of the atmosphere and ocean. While GDEM uses statistical analysis methods to fill in data gaps in space and time, SODA resolves data gaps in a dynamically consistent and more realistic manner (Turek 2008). More information on SODA and the use of it in our study will be discussed in Chapter II. 3. Smart Climatology The smart climatology concept, developed by Dr. Tom Murphree and Rear Admiral David Titley, uses state of the science basic and applied climatology to directly support DoD operations (Murphree 2008). Smart climatology uses state of the science climatology datasets (e.g., NCEP/NCAR and SODA reanalyses) and methods (e.g., conditional compositing, teleconnection analyses, statistical and dynamical prediction systems) to analyze, monitor, and forecast the climate system (Murphree 2008). A number of smart climatology studies conducted at the Naval Postgraduate School have demonstrated that significant improvements could be made in METOC support for Navy operations by adapting advanced datasets and methods. These include studies by Turek (2008) and Ramsaur (2009) that identified smart climatology improvements in climate scale

support for USW operations in the WNP. Several of these studies have developed and tested systems for producing operational long-range forecasts of the environment, and of radar and sonar performance, in areas of high priority for the DoD, such as Iraq (Hanson 2007; Crook 2009), Afghanistan (Moss 2007), Korea (Tournay 2007), the Indian Ocean (Twigg 2007), the North Atlantic (Raynak 2009), and the WNP (Mundhenk 2009; Ramsaur 2009). In all of these studies, smart climatology has proven to be a viable concept for improving METOC support at long lead times across a variety of military operations. In this study, we have extended the research done by Turek (2008) in which he compared smart ocean climatologies with traditional Navy climatologies including comparisons of their impacts on long-range predictions of acoustic variables and sonar performance. Turek (2008) determined that there was a high potential for smart climatology to improve such long-range predictions, but he did not actually develop and test a long-range prediction system. In our study, we built upon the findings of Turek (2009) and used state of the science datasets, analysis, and LRF methods, to develop and test techniques for operationally generating feasible and tactically significant LRF products in support of USW operations in the WNP. C. HOW CAN THE NAVY ATTAIN THE USW ADVANTAGE? Locating a submarine in the Pacific Ocean has often been described as trying to find a needle in a haystack. Stealthy tactics of an adversary, a noisy medium, and limited U.S. capabilities , put USW operators at a significant disadvantage when it comes to detecting subsurface targets. Thus, it is imperative that the Navy design, develop, test, and produce concepts and products that can give USW operators the best chance at successfully accomplishing their mission. This section outlines ideas for how this can be achieved. 1. Exploit the Battlespace on Demand Concept The Battlespace on Demand (BonD) concept developed by the Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (CNMOC) presents a strategy for achieving decision superiority for the warfighter through the exploitation of information about the battlespace environment (Evans 2008). The BonD concept has four tiers, as depicted in Figure 4. Tier zero represents observations, consisting of environmental data from an array of sources (e.g., in situ and remote measurement systems). Tier one represents analyses and predictions of the environment based on data from tier zero. Tier two represents predictions of how environmental conditions described in tier one affect the performance of military equipment (e.g., sensors, communication, and weapons systems). Tier three represents recommendations on how to best exploit environmental opportunities and mitigate environmental risks. The BonD concept was originally developed to help improve short range environmental support for warfighters. However, the concept applies equally well to long-range support. The blue text boxes in Figure 4 identify smart climatology products we associate with each of the four BonD tiers. In this study, we have applied advanced climate datasets and methods at the tier zero level to develop LRFs for USW at the tier one level. These LRFs form the foundation for the subsequent development of long-range support at the tier two and three levels. 2. Re-evaluate Levels of Effort in USW Support In an anti-submarine warfare (ASW) coordination and concept of operations brief given in March 2005, CAPT Best (then the CNMOC Director for ASW) and CDR Gurley (then the CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW) described the present levels of METOC effort in support of planning and execution of ASW operations, and the resulting levels of impact. This is depicted in Figure 5 in which the blue line represents the level of effort for METOC support at lead times of years to hours and the red line represents the level of impact this support has on overall operations. Notice that, in this ASW example, relatively little effort is spent on METOC support at lead times of one week to two months (i.e., intraseasonal climate support). This large dip in METOC support occurs when ASW commanders are making major operational decisions regarding resources, platform assignments, deployment load-outs, and training (Murphree 2008). This is when large amounts of money are allocated for operations, and this is where the greatest opportunity exists for long-range METOC support products to significantly contribute to the success of ASW operations. The implication of the analysis by Best and Gurley shown in Figure 5 is that skillful LRFs of the environment and equipment performance could significantly improve METOC support, and the impacts of that support, at weekly to seasonal lead times when major ASW decisions are being made . 3. Understand Planning Objectives and Timelines In order to give timely and accurate long-range forecasts to USW planners, forecasters must first understand what types of decisions are made at long lead times, and how their LRF products can best support those decisions and overall mission objectives. Typical mid-phase planning conference discussions for USW related operations occur three to six

months prior to the start of operations and include : friendly asset assignments, target asset discussions, expected atmospheric and oceanic conditions , environmental characterization, sensor deployment, sensor performance, and active/passive SONAR ranges. Knowing this, Navy forecasters must strive to provide forecasts at lead times of three to six months that will enable decision makers to better understand the operational environment, including environmental uncertainties, and make decisions that will maximize sensor performance, give friendly forces the acoustic advantage , and give the high value unit (HVU) maximum defensibility. A major goal of our study was to develop and test techniques for generating such long-range forecasts.

Undersea dominance is at risk – sustaining it is critical to broader US power projection.Connor 2013Vice Admiral Michael J. Connor, US Navy. Sustaining Undersea Dominance, Proceedings Magazine - June 2013 Vol. 139/6/1,324 http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2013-06/sustaining-undersea-dominance

Our nation enjoys control of the undersea domain that was established during the Cold War. Today, the challenge is to sustain and grow that dominance in an era of rapid technological change and smaller budgets. The U.S. Navy will rise to that challenge by building smarter with a plan that coordinates people, platforms, payloads, and partnerships. What we call undersea warfare actually encompasses activity that ranges from the seabed to space. Military effects from the undersea domain support the air, surface, cyber, land, and space domains. Therefore, the degree to which we are successful in sustaining undersea superiority will affect the military outcomes and strategic influence in multiple domains. From the very beginning, the reason to take warfare beneath the waves has been stealth—the ability to operate unobserved, even when far forward. Undersea forces’ observability is so low that the adversary can never be sure they are not present. For

this reason, stealth is a force multiplier for the side with undersea dominance, and a paranoia multiplier for the side that does not. Over time, science will improve the ability to detect what happens beneath the surface of the ocean.

However, for the immediate future, the ocean will continue to be the most opaque of the operating domains. Presently we have a position of strength in undersea warfare, but that advantage will be squandered if we fail to recognize and plan for the pace of change that will accompany emerging technologies. If we invest wisely, we will prevail, in peace and in war . First, the demand for undersea capability will continue to increase. Combatant commanders and national decision makers recognize that undersea forces leverage the most opaque warfighting domain and are uniquely capable of providing a range of options with strategic impact—from phase-zero intelligence collection to major combat operations. The undersea force is a low-density, high-demand asset that provides a large return on investment. It

delivers precision effects—kinetic and non-kinetic—in areas where other forces simply cannot operate. Undersea forces have no visible footprint and a short logistics tail. They bring autonomy, endurance, stealth, sensors, and firepower—often in one

package. Second, long-term influence will hinge on the ability to continue to deter, dissuade, or defeat a near-peer competitor . The undersea force is particularly qualified to meet this need. The concealment afforded undersea forces allows our national decision makers to expand their own decision space and diplomacy options by leveraging ground-truth intelligence—which is often very different from rhetoric and posturing. This superior knowledge generates negotiating advantages for diplomats. Diplomacy backed by credible combat power often succeeds where appeals to moral principles fall short. If diplomacy, dissuasion, or deterrence fails, undersea forces can immediately shift away from their stealth posture and act quickly with a profound degree of surprise, force, and lethality . Third, the United States will continue to have a need to prevent non-state adversaries from harming our vital national interests. Undersea forces positioned in the right locations can operate inside the decision cycle of these potential enemies and provide a range of diplomatic and engagement options necessary to act decisively—from the sea lanes to far inland. Fourth, the U.S. military has an increasing need for a force that can operate with freedom of maneuver in places where the adversary attempts to deny access . Our undersea forces are able to slip in, neutralize targets both at sea and ashore, and stay there indefinitely. The ability to arrive at the decisive point without expending weapons for self-defense provides a high return on each weapon on each submarine. Fifth, cyber warriors will most likely fight each other to a draw, leaving behind a battle space that is limited in both electronic and communications support. This must be

a part of prudent planning for the future. Commanders at the tip of the spear will need to operate from commander’s intent and broad operational guidance, with limited links to higher headquarters. Operational commanders will have to be patient as undersea forces take on the enemy with scant reporting while the fight is on. The independence ingrained in the undersea-warrior ethos during World War II and the Cold War will thrive in these conditions.

Naval power deters great power wars, reassures allies and facilitates cooperation to solve global problemsEngland et al., former deputy secretary of defense, 2011(Gordon, “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power”, 7-11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784, ldg)

The future security environment underscores two broad security trends. First, international political realities and the internationally agreed-to

sovereign rights of nations will increasingly limit the sustained involvement of American permanent land -based , heavy

forces to the more extreme crises. This will make offshore options for deterrence and power projection ever more paramount in support of our national interests. Second, the naval dimensions of American power will re-emerge as the primary means for assuring our allies and partners, ensuring prosperity in times of peace, and countering anti-access, area-denial efforts in times of crisis. We do not believe these trends will require the dismantling of land-based forces, as these forces will remain essential reservoirs of power. As the United States has learned time and again, once a crisis becomes a conflict, it is impossible to predict with certainty its depth, duration

and cost. That said, the U.S. has been shrinking its overseas land-based installations, so the ability to project power globally will make the forward presence of naval forces an even more essential dimension of

American influence. What we do believe is that uniquely responsive Navy -Marine Corps capabilities provide the basis on which our most

vital overseas interests are safeguarded. Forward presence and engagement is what allows the U.S. to maintain awareness, to deter aggression, and to quickly respond to threats as they arise. Though we clearly must be prepared for the high-end threats, such preparation should be made in balance with the means necessary to avoid escalation to the high end in the first place. The versatility of maritime forces provides a truly unmatched advantage. The sea remains a vast space that provides nearly unlimited freedom of maneuver. Command of the sea allows for the presence of our naval forces, supported from

a network of shore facilities, to be adjusted and scaled with little external restraint. It permits reliance on proven capabilities such as prepositioned ships. Maritime capabilities encourage and enable coop eration with other nations to solve common sea-based problems such as piracy, illegal trafficking, prolif eration of W.M.D ., and a host of other ills , which if unchecked can harm our friends and interests abroad, and our own citizenry at home. The flexibility and responsiveness of naval forces provide our country with a general strategic deterrent in a potentially violent and unstable world. Most importantly, our naval forces project and sustain power at sea and ashore at the time, place, duration, and intensity of our choosing. Given these enduring qualities, tough choices must clearly be made, especially in light of expected tight defense budgets. The administration and the Congress need to balance the resources allocated to missions such as strategic deterrence, ballistic missile defense, and cyber warfare with the more traditional ones of sea control and power projection. The maritime capability and capacity vital to the flexible projection of U.S. power and influence around the globe must surely be preserved, especially in light of available technology. Capabilities such as the Joint Strike Fighter will provide strategic deterrence,

in addition to tactical long-range strike, especially when operating from forward-deployed naval vessels. Postured to respond quickly, the Navy - Marine Corps team integrates sea , air, and land power into adaptive force packages spanning the entire spectrum of operations , from everyday cooperative security activities to unwelcome — but not impossible — wars between major powers . This is exactly what we will need to meet the challenges of the future.

No escalation to great power war in a world of naval powerConway, retired United States Marine Corps general, 2008(James, “A Cooperative Strategy For 21st Century Seapower”, Naval War College Review, Winter, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/Maritimestrategy.pdf, ldg)

States seapower will be globally postured to secure our homeland and citizens from direct attack and to advance our interests around the world. As our security and prosperity are inextricably linked with those of others, U.S. maritime forces will be deployed to protect and sustain the peaceful global system comprised of interdependent networks of trade, finance, information, law, people and governance. We will employ the global reach, persistent presence, and operational flexibility inherent in U.S. seapower to accomplish six key tasks, or strategic imperatives. Where tensions are high or where we wish to

demonstrate to our friends and allies our commitment to security and stability, U.S. maritime forces will be characterized by regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task forces with the combat power to limit regional conflict, deter major power war, and should deterrence fail, win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint or combined campaign. In addition, persistent, mission-tailored maritime forces will be globally distributed in order to contribute to homeland defense-in-depth, foster and sustain cooperative relationships with an expanding set of international partners, and prevent or mitigate disruptions and crises. a cooporative strategy for a 21st century seapower 7 Regionally Concentrated, Credible Combat Power Credible combat power will be continuously postured in the Western Pacific and the Arabian Gulf/Indian Ocean to protect our vital interests, assure our friends and allies of our continuing commitment to regional security, and deter and

dissuade potential adversaries and peer competitors. This combat power can be selectively and rapidly repositioned to meet contingencies that may arise elsewhere. These forces will be sized and postured to fulfill the following strategic imperatives: Limit regional conflict with forward deployed, decisive maritime power. Today regional conflict has ramifications far beyond the area of conflict. Humanitarian crises, violence spreading across borders, pandemics, and the interruption of vital resources are all possible when regional crises erupt. While this strategy advocates a wide dispersal of networked

maritime forces, we cannot be everywhere, and we cannot act to mitigate all regional conflict. Where conflict threatens the global system and our national interests, maritime forces will be ready to respond alongside other elements of national and multi-national power, to give political leaders a range of options for deterrence, escalation and de-escalation . Maritime forces that are persistently present and combat-ready provide the Nation’s primary forcible entry option in an era of declining access, even as they provide the means for this Nation to respond quickly to other crises. Whether over

the horizon or powerfully arrayed in plain sight, maritime forces can deter the ambitions of regional aggressors, assure friends and allies, gain and maintain access, and protect our citizens while working to sustain the global order. Critical to this notion is the maintenance of a powerful fleet—ships, aircraft, Marine forces, and shore-based fleet activities—capable of selectively controlling the seas, projecting power ashore, and protecting friendly forces and

civilian populations from attack. Deter major power war. No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers . Maintenance and extension of this Nation’s comparative seapower advantage is a key component of deterring major power war . While war with another great power

strikes many as improbable, the near-certainty of its ruinous effects demands that it be actively deterred using all elements of national power. The expeditionary character of maritime forces—our lethality, global reach, speed, endurance, ability to overcome barriers to access, and operational agility—provide the joint commander with a range of deterrent options. We will pursue an approach to deterrence that includes a credible and scalable ability to retaliate against aggressors conventionally, unconventionally, and with nuclear forces.

Information Dominance I/L

Oceanographic data key to Naval powerChu et al 2005Peter C., Naval Ocean Analysis and Prediction Laboratory, Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate Schoo, Satellite Data Assimilation for Improvement of Naval Undersea Capability,https://www.mtsociety.org/pdf/publications/journal/Journals_2005-2003/MTS38-1Color.pdf

Even with all the high technology weapons onboard U.S. Navy ships today, the difference between success and failure often comes down to our understanding and knowledge of the environment in which we are operating. Accurately pre- dicting the ocean environment is a criti- cal factor in using our detection systems to find a target and in setting our weap- ons to prosecute a target (Gottshall. 1997; Chu et al.. 1998). From the ocean tem- perature and salinity, the sound velocity profiles (SVP) can be calculated. SVPs are a key input used by U.S. Navy weapons programs to predict weapon performance in the medium. The trick lies in finding the degree to which the effectiveness of the weapon systems is tied to the accu- racy of the ocean predictions. The U.S. Navy's Meteorological and Oceanographic (METOC) community currently uses three different methods to obtain representative SVPs of the ocean: climatology, in situ measurements, and data (including satellite data) assimilation. The climatologtcal data provides the back- ground SVP information that might not be current. The Generalized Digital En- vironmental Model (GDEM) is an ex- ample of a climatological system that pro- vides long-term mean temperature, salin- ity, and sound speed profiles. The in situ measurements from conductivity-tem- perature-depth (CTD) and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) casts may give accurate and timely information, but these are not likely to have large spatial and tem- poral coverage over all regions where U.S. ships are going to be operating. In a data assimilation system, an initial climatology or forecast is improved by using satellite and in situ data to better estimate synop- tic SVPs. The Modular Ocean Data As- similation System (MODAS) utilizes sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface tem- perature (SST) in this way to make nowcasts of the ocean environment (Fox et al., 2002). The value added by satellite data as- similation for use of undersea weapon sys- tems can be evaluated using the SVP in- put data from MODAS (with satellite data assimilation) and GDEM (climatology without satellite data assimilation). The question also arises of how many altim- eters are necessary to generate an optimal MODAS field. Too few inputs could re- sult in an inaccurate MODAS field, which in turn could lead to decreased weapon effectiveness. There must also be some point at which the addition of another altimeter is going to add a negligible in- crease in effectiveness. This superfluous altimeter would be simply a waste of money that could be spent on a more use- ful system. The purpose of this study is to quan- tify the advantage gained from the use of data from MODAS assimilation of satel- lite observations rather than climatology. The study will specifically cover the ben- efits of MODAS data over climatology when using their respective SVPs to deter- mine torpedo settings. These settings re- sult in acoustic coverage percentages that will be used as the metric to compare the two types of data.

Undersea Warfare UQ

Navy data is cold war eraEaglen and Rodeback 2010Mackenzie Eaglen Research Fellow for National Security Studies, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies Jon Rodeback Editor, Research Publications Heritage Submarine Arms Race in the Pacific: The Chinese Challenge to U.S. Undersea Supremacy http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/submarine-arms-race-in-the-pacific-the-chinese-challenge-to-us-undersea-supremacy

In addition, "[t]he Navy lacks a modern equivalent of the Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS), the theater-wide acoustic detection system developed in the 1950s to detect Soviet submarines."[23] This is emblematic of broader weaknesses. Many systems deployed during the Cold War are of limited usefulness in today's threat environment. For example, fixed sensors used during the Cold War are not located in areas where conflict is most likely to occur this century. Furthermore, more countries are deploying advanced submarines that could threaten U.S. aircraft carriers, raising the stakes of U.S. military intervention. Navy force structure must adapt to this evolving underwater threat environment. In July 2008, Navy officials testified before Congress about prioritizing relevant naval combat capability and recent developments that significantly changed how they view current threats. Vice Admiral Barry McCullough described the Navy's new perception of the threat environment: Rapidly evolving traditional and asymmetric threats continue to pose increasing challenges to Combatant Commanders. State actors and non-state actors who, in the past, have only posed limited threats in the littoral are expanding their reach beyond their own shores with improved capabilities in blue water submarine operations, advanced anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. A number of countries who historically have only possessed regional military capabilities are investing in their Navy to extend their reach and influence as they compete in global markets. Our Navy will need to outpace other navies in the blue water ocean environment as they extend their reach. This will require us to continue to improve our blue water anti-submarine and anti-ballistic missile capabilities in order to counter improving anti-access strategies.[24] The Navy has acknowledged its atrophying ASW capabilities in the face of "a re-emerging undersea threat" and has set the goal of developing more advanced sensors and anti-submarine weapons in the coming years.[25] The U.S. Pacific Fleet has reportedly already increased ASW training.[26] These are critical efforts that must be sustained alongside a goal to increase the procurement of additional ASW platforms--primarily submarines and long-range maritime surveillance aircraft.

Undersea Warfare I/Ls

Navy data sets take the mean of past observations, the aff allows them to accurately make predictionsHeidt 2009Sarah L., Lieutenent USN, Long-range atmosphere-ocean forecasting in support of undersea warfare operations in the western north Pacific, Naval postgraduate school thesis, https://calhoun.nps.edu/public/bitstream/handle/10945/4516/09Sep_Heidt.pdf?sequence=1

Civilian agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have surpassed the Department of Defense in their use of state of the science technology to develop advanced datasets and methods to analyze and forecast the climate system. In many cases, this technology is freely available to the public. However, the Navy has adapted and used very little of this technology to advance Navy climate prediction capabilities. ESRL provides public access to a number of climate datasets through their interactive, web-based plotting and analysis tools. These tools, and an atmospheric reanalysis dataset developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), were extensively used in our study and will be further discussed in Chapter II. In this study, it is important to differentiate between a state of the science reanalysis dataset and a LTM-based climatology dataset. In our study, we used the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis dataset and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) ocean reanalysis dataset. Unlike LTM based climatology datasets (e.g., GDEM), reanalysis datasets are constructed by integrating observations obtained from numerous data sources together within a numerical prediction model, through a process called data assimilation (CCSP 2008). The result is a continuous and spatially uniform, reconstructed analysis of past atmospheric and/or oceanic conditions, typically spanning 30 years or longer. Ocean reanalysis datasets, like SODA, have significant advantages over LTM based datasets, like GDEM, because of their explicit representation of atmospheric and ocean dynamics, and their much higher temporal resolution that can capture climate variations and other temporal fluctuations of the atmosphere and ocean. While GDEM uses statistical analysis methods to fill in data gaps in space and time, SODA resolves data gaps in a dynamically consistent and more realistic manner (Turek 2008). More information on SODA and the use of it in our study will be discussed in Chapter II.

NOAA Data Key

Navy and Coast Guard get the NOAA dataAllen 2013Arthur A., Lead Coast Guard Search and Rescue oceanographer, Modeling the SAR Mission Communities come together to develop strategies, technologies, Seapower Mag May 2013 http://www.uscg.mil/hq/CG9/images/SARMission_May2013.pdf

How often do you work with the U.S. Navy oceanographer? ALLEN: The Navy runs global oceanographic models for iheir use and they have been very generous, and kind, to provide to us the surface currents from their models and also the surface winds. We are, if you will, a customer to the Navy's numerical products. We have recently worked with the Navy very frequently because they switched their global models in March. We have been in preparation for that switch over for a while, also holding weekly phone calls with NOAA, till- Navy and the Coast Guard discussing thLs al an operational level. Within the oceanographic communi- ty, we hope that everything — currents, winds, etc. — will now be assessed through computers. Talk a little bit about your partnership with NOAA

and IOOS. ALLEN: The main benefit with NOAA and IOOS la tool used for tracking, predicting, managing and adapting to changes in our ocean, coastal and Great Lakes environ- ments] is we get all these models and

products free of charge . There is no subscription fee. They make it avail- able at their site and all we have to do is develop the information technology part of it that goes and grabs it. How will your work be affected by budget cuts? ALLEN: 1 am very much involved in the development of new features in the Coast Guard's Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS). The hardest part is more on an emotional level, because 1 want to see the continued development of SAROPS and the rate of that development is very much affected by our fund- ing. So there are things that 1 want to develop into SAROPS — prototype stuff — but there has to be a contract from a prototype to be available operationally, and that takes funding. Smaller budgets, in a sense it has affected us. Most of my travel for the remainder of the fiscal vear — until Sept. 50 at the earliest — will be to and from my office and home. 1 will not be getting out to conferences or the field to talk with the communities that we serve. As the Coast Guards expert in these products, it's useful to get in the field to talk about what's new and coming online, and the direct feedback they provide gives me ideas for new products to develop. ■

IOOS uses high frequency radar – key to environmental and vessel managementAllen et al 2007Art Allen USCG, Josh Kohut and Scott Glenn – Rutgers, MDA Decision Support for Disaster Response IOOS Regional Association Collaboration with the U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue, HazMat, and Vessel Tracking http://oceanleadership.org/files/MDA_Proceedings_lowres.pdf

Surface current mapping is very important to achieving the societal goals of the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) as well as to achieving the objectives of Marine Domain Awareness (MDA). The availability and maturity of High-Frequency (HF) radar technology makes reliable surface current mapping now possible. Rapid detection and accurate predictions of the trajectories of objects at or near the surface of the ocean are important decision support tools for a variety of MDA activities including • Search and Rescue (SAR), • HazMat, • Surf zone forecasting, and • Vessel tracking. Real-time situational awareness includes nowcasts of current environmental conditions and vessel locations as well as forecasts of the locations of hazardous materials released into the ocean. High Frequency (HF) radar is proving to be an important technology for these purposes. HF Radar rose to the level of a transformational technology for coastal ocean research and applications in the late 1990’s. Individual radars map the radial component of the current towards or away from each radar site. By combining the radial currents from small networks of 2 to 3 Radars often operated by individual university researchers, sea surface current fields were produced in real time and distributed over the World Wide Web. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Research and Development Center first expressed interest in using the HF Radar data for SAR based on the time series of current maps collected during the passage of Hurricane Floyd along the New Jersey coast in September of 1999. They found that current fields from the HF

Radar network during the storm significantly reduced the size of the search area using existing tools applied in a research mode. However, the USCG concluded that, while the technology did provide improved guidance, the data footprint available in 1999 was too small to be operationally significant. Nevertheless, a vision for the future emerged. The vision included the need to (1) expand HF Radar technologies to enable surface current mapping over larger regions for the entire nation and (2) improve the Search And Rescue tools to benefit fully from the new data streams.

Navy Impact Extension

Strong navy de-escalates all conflict and deters great power warRoughead et al., US Chief of Naval Operations, 2007(Gary, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”, October, www.navy.mil/maritime/Maritimestrategy.pdf, ldg)

This strategy reaffirms the use of seapower to influence actions and activities at sea and ashore. The expeditionary character and versatility of maritime forces provide the U.S. the asymmetric advantage of enlarging or contracting its military footprint in areas where access is denied or limited. Permanent or prolonged basing of our military forces overseas often has unintended economic, social

or political repercussions. The sea is a vast maneuver space, where the presence of maritime forces can be adjusted as conditions dictate to enable flexible approaches to escalation, de-escalation and deterrence of conflicts .

The speed, flexibility, agility and scalability of maritime forces provide joint or combined force commanders a range of options for responding to crises. Additionally, integrated maritime operations, either within formal alliance structures (such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or more informal arrangements (such as the Global Maritime Partnership initiative), send powerful messages to would-be aggressors that we will act with others to ensure collective security and prosperity. United States seapower will be globally postured to secure our homeland and citizens from

direct attack and to advance our interests around the world. As our security and prosperity are inextricably linked with those of others, U.S. maritime forces will be deployed to protect and sustain the peaceful global system comprised of interdependent networks of trade, finance, information, law, people and governance. We will employ the global reach, persistent presence, and operational flexibility inherent in U.S. seapower to accomplish six key tasks, or strategic imperatives. Where tensions are high or where we wish to demonstrate to our friends and allies our commitment to security

and stability, U.S. maritime forces will be characterized by regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task forces with the combat power to limit regional conflict, deter major power war, and should deterrence fail, win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint or combined campaign. In addition, persistent, mission-tailored maritime forces will be globally distributed in order to contribute to homeland defense-in-depth, foster and sustain cooperative relationships with an expanding set of international partners, and prevent or mitigate disruptions and crises. Credible combat power will be continuously postured in the Western Pacific and the Arabian Gulf/Indian Ocean to protect our vital interests, assure our friends and allies of our

continuing commitment to regional security, and deter and dissuade potential adversaries and peer competitors. This combat power can be selectively and rapidly repositioned to meet contingencies that may arise elsewhere . These forces will be sized and postured to fulfill the following strategic imperatives: Limit regional conflict with forward deployed, decisive maritime power. Today regional conflict has

ramifications far beyond the area of conflict. Humanitarian crises, violence spreading across borders, pandemics, and the interruption of vital resources are all possible when regional crises erupt. While this strategy advocates a wide dispersal of

networked maritime forces, we cannot be everywhere, and we cannot act to mitigate all regional conflict. Where conflict threatens the global system and our national interests, maritime forces will be ready to respond alongside other elements of national and multi-national

power, to give political leaders a range of options for deterrence, escalation and de-escalation. Maritime forces that are persistently present and combat-ready provide the Nation’s primary forcible entry option in an era of

declining access, even as they provide the means for this Nation to respond quickly to other crises. Whether over the horizon or powerfully arrayed in plain sight, maritime forces can deter the ambitions of regional aggressors, assure friends and allies, gain and maintain access, and protect our citizens while

working to sustain the global order. Critical to this notion is the maintenance of a powerful fleet —ships, aircraft, Marine forces,

and shore-based fleet activities—capable of selectively controlling the seas, projecting power ashore, and protecting friendly forces and civilian populations from attack. Deter major power war. No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers.

Maintenance and extension of this Nation’s comparative seapower advantage is a key component of deterring major power war . While war with another great power strikes many as improbable, the near-certainty of its ruinous effects demands that it be actively

deterred using all elements of national power. The expeditionary character of maritime forces—our lethality, global reach, speed, endurance, ability to overcome barriers to access, and operational agility—provide the joint

commander with a range of deterrent options. We will pursue an approach to deterrence that includes a credible and scalable ability to retaliate against aggressors conventionally, unconventionally, and with nuclear forces.

ACE I/L

Key to Army Corps of EngineersGrisoli 2011William T., Major General US Army Deputy Commanding General for Civil and Emergency Operations, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, The Importance of the Integrated Ocean Observing System to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Marine Technology Society Journal http://www.plocan.eu/doc/MTS%20Journal_2011_Vol45-No1.pdf

Where we do nor have actual gauge observations, we depend on numerical models (wave, circulation, storm

surge, sediment transport, etc). Models are also used for multiscenario planning and to evaluate different project de- signs. Models require comprehensive data sets for verification and to quantify model accuracy. Often we find that suf- ficient data do not exist. To address this issue, our Field Research Facility lo- cated in Duck, North Carolina, is cur- rently working to develop tools and performance metrics for model/data comparisons and has already demon- strated a real-time system for model evaluation using the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. Much more work in this field is required. The Corps has developed guidance for incorporating sca-lcvcl changes and is developing guidance for incorporat- ing other climate change impacts into our existing and future projects. We arc therefore interested in understand- ing, quantifying and refining the esti- mates of future climate change. This is a major change in the way we do business because our projects are de- signed to provide a level of safety at an acceptable level of risk. To accom- plish this, our agency requires long- term, climate-quality observations of water level, waves, and storm intensity and occurrence in the vicinity of our projects and at a broader regional level. In these days of tight budgets and limited resources, no single agency or emit)' can collect all the data they re- quire. We must work together to coor- dinate efforts and to share our expertise, models, and data in readily usable for- mats. This is how we expect to fully re- alize the potential of IOOS —through access, not only to our primary variables of interest, but to a much broader range of variables at increased spatial coverage than is available today. For example, IOOS data on turbidity, salinity, dis- solved oxygen, macro species popula-lions, and infauna density will all be used to improve Corps projects. Al- ready we arc benefiting from IOOS data integration through the recently improved online access to IOOS data via

NOAA/National Data Buoy Cen- ter and the adoption or spatial and tem- poral data standards. In fact, we are adopting IOOS data protocols for use in moving Corps data out of drawers and file cabinets and into online discov- erable formats. We have also taken a major step to- ward facilitating the Corps' engagement with IOOS by supporting a permanent detail from the Corps to the National IOOS Program Office. Linda Lillycrop currendy occupies this position and is working to encourage active participa- tion between the 21 coastal districts of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the 11 IOOS Regional Associations. Continually collaborating with IOOS and our other partners ensures that the Corps maintains the data and capabili- ties we need to prepare for hazards and protect our valuable coastal regions. The Corps would benefit through a multiagcncy U.S. IOOS program operating at full capability, which in- cludes a sustained data collection pro- gram with broad spatial data coverage of observations, standardized data ar- chitecture and products, and the capa- bility for rapid dissemination of data. These capabilities would greatly ad- vance the Corps' ability to accomplish our missions, to improve our projects, and to strengthen management and environmental stewardship across the nation. Building strong!

SCS Advantage

1AC – South China Sea

IOOS is key to effective ocean satellite data collectionFrank Muller-Karger 13, Professor of Oceanography, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, PhD in Marine and Estuarine Sciences from the University of Maryland; Mitchell Roffer, Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.;Nan Walker, Louisiana State University; Matt oliver, University of Delaware; Oscar Schofield, Rutgers; Mark Abbott, Oregon State University; Hans Graber, University of Miami, Florida; Robert Leben, University of Colorado, Boulder; Gustavo Goni, NOAA; “Satellite Remote Sensing in Support of an Integrated Ocean Observing System,” IEEE Geoscience and remote Sensing Magazine, December 2013, https://marine.rutgers.edu/pubs/private/FMK_et_al_IEEE_GRSM2013.pdfAbstract—Earth observing satellites represent some of the most valued components of the international Global

Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), both part of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

(GEOSS). In the United States, such satellites are a cornerstone of the Integrated Ocean Observing System ( IOOS ),

required to carry out advanced coastal and ocean research, and to implement and sustain sensible resource management policies based on science. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived data are required for mapping vital coastal and marine resources, improving m aritime d omain a wareness, and to better understand the complexities of land, ocean, atmosphere, ice, biological, and social interactions . These data are critical to the strategic planning of in situ observing components and are critical to improving forecasting and numerical modeling. Specifically, there are

several stakeholder communities that require periodic, frequent, and sustained synoptic observations. Of particular importance are indicators of ecosystem structure (habitat and species inventories), ecosystem states (health and change) and observations about physical and biogeochemical

variables to support the operational and research communities , and industry sectors including mining, fisheries , and

transportation. IOOS requires a strategy to coordinate the human capacity, and fund , advance, and maintain the infrastructure that provides improved remote sensing observations and support for the nation and the globe. A partnership between the private, government, and education sectors will enhance remote sensing support and product development for critical coastal and deep-water regions based on infrared, ocean color, and microwave satellite sensors. These partnerships need to include international research, government, and industry sectors in order to facilitate open data access, understanding of calibration and algorithm strategies, and fill gaps in coverage. Such partnerships will define the types of observations required to sustain vibrant coastal economies and to improve the health of our marine and coastal ecosystems. They are required to plan, fund, launch and operate the types of satellite sensors needed in the very near future to maintain continuity of observations.

Solves SCS fishing disputesCaitlin Werrell 14, and Francesco Femia, Co-Founders & Directors of the Center for Climate and Security, “Fisheries and Conflict Zones: The Critical Role of Satellite Technology,” http://climateandsecurity.org/2014/01/07/fisheries-and-conflict-zones-the-critical-role-of-satellite-technology/Al-Abdulrazzak continues with an interesting and important point about the utility of satellite technology, especially for collecting data in difficult-to-reach regions:¶ These results, which provide the first example of fisheries catch estimates from space, speak to the potential of satellite technologies for monitoring fisheries remotely, particularly in areas that were once considered too dangerous or expensive for fisheries surveillance and enforcement . For example, we were able to reveal and account for 17 illegal operating traps in Qatar, and suggest that similar methods can be used to expose other illegal marine practices

such as monitoring activities in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and assessing the magnitude of oil spills.¶ This utility of satellite technology would also apply to zones of instability and conflict, where fisheries data (and other sorts of data, including water and climate information) are of critical importance for assessing vulnerability and instability, but are

difficult-to-impossible to collect due to circumstances on the ground. For example, see NASA’s satellite data on freshwater losses in the Middle East (the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran region) – of critical importance in an unstable region where many ground-based data sources sources lay in zones inaccessible to

researchers.¶ Satellites may also be crucial, for example, in tracking fisheries dynamics in the contested South

China Sea , which because of a warming ocean, is seeing fish stocks gradually moving northwards.

Accurate data and monitoring could be crucial in this area, as geopolitical tensions between China, its Asian neighbors, and the United States, over claims to the sea, could be non-trivially affected by such changes (see Will Rogers’ discussion of this in a CNAS report from 2012).¶ In short, satellite technologies are critical in a changing (and unstable) world. We should not allow the pressures of austerity to make us forget this.

Those are the most likely scenario for SCS conflictStephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt 12, China and Northeast Asia director for the International Crisis Group, former IR fellow at CFR, June 25 2012, “Fish Story,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/25/fish_storyConsider it a lesson in how a common fishing run-in can turn into a crisis that can bring an entire region to its knees. Despite the

overwhelming preoccupation with the potentially abundant energy reserves in the South China Sea, fishing has emerged as a larger potential driver of conflict . Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam rely on the sea as an economic lifeline. And China is the largest consumer and exporter of fish in the world. And as overfishing continues to deplete coastal stocks through Southeast Asia, fishermen are venturing out further into disputed waters.¶ All this is worsening a trend of harassment, confiscation of catch and equipment, detention, and

mistreatment of fishermen. Further fueling tensions is the way countries in the region are wielding unilateral fishing bans to assert jurisdiction over disputed waters under the pretext of environmental protection. Worryingly, the claims of

sovereignty also serve to justify greater civilian patrols in the sea -- opening up still more possibilities of run-ins with fishing vessels. And when ships go bump in the night, growing nationalist sentiment limits

governments' ability to resolve the disputes and sows the seeds for future problems.

Fishing rights are a catalyst for conflict.Cronin 2012Patrick, Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 1-26-2012 http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS%20Testimony%20Cronin%20012612_1.pdf

The South China Sea is “one of the most biologically diverse marine areas in the world.” 8 Fish stocks there are a multi-billion-dollar industry and account for as much as one-tenth of the global catch. 9 National policies,

both subsidies and the enforcement of domestic fishing laws, are creating regional tensions. As my colleague Will Rogers has written, China’s fishing ban during spawning season, while undertaken to protect fish from being overexploited, sets up an annual fight with Vietnamese fishermen. 10 Fish protein is more than 22 percent of the average Asian diet, significantly higher than the global average of 16 percent. 11 As Asians become both more prosperous and more numerous , the demand on fish increases . Thus, Asians are consuming more of the world’s fishing stocks, of which roughly one-third is “overexploited, depleted or recovering,” according to the United Nations. 12 The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization cautions that the production of most fish resources in the western South China Sea have either been depleted or are in decline. 13 Moreover, as Vietnam’s population increases, perhaps growing 25 percent by 2050, the heightened demand for fish will aggravate existing tensions. 14 A key point is that fishermen do more than fish. They are civilian instruments of power that help stake out legal claims and establish national maritime rights. As Taylor Fravel writes in the CNAS report, “fishermen will often justify operating in disputed waters through their country’s claims to maritime rights. Chinese fishermen operate in the southern portions of the South China Sea near Indonesia and Vietnam, for example, while Vietnamese and Philippine vessels operate in the northern portions near the Paracel Islands.” 15 It is also worth noting that as fish migration patterns change, it is entirely possible that areas of maritime contestation will also migrate. For instance, a recent United Nations study observed that cold-water fish species may decline as warm-water species migrate north because of climate changes . Consequently, this is likely to be a catalyst for increased confrontation between China and its neighbors over fishing rights.

Climate change intensifies SCS competition – fisheries, rare earths.Rogers 2012Will, Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security, Cooperation from Strength: The US, China and the South China Sea – Chapter 5 - The Role of Natural Resources in the South China Sea, 1-09-2012, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_CooperationFromStrength_Cronin_1.pdf

Climate change will compound the ongoing resource struggles in the South China Sea region. Security experts

caution that climate change could act as an “accelerant of instability” by exacerbating environmental trends in ways that may overwhelm civil-society institutions , 35 and this may affect countries’ decisions involving a broad range of resources – including energy, fisheries and minerals. For instance, droughts in China offer a stark example of how broader climate trends may undermine the nation’s ability to diversify energy resources and invigorate its efforts to seek fossil fuels in the South China Sea. Although China generated approximately 16 percent of its electricity from hydroelectric dams in 2009 and plans to nearly double its hydroelectric capacity by 2020, 36 China’s hydroelectric power is projected to decline by 30 to 40 percent in the last quarter of 2011 because of a prolonged drought in parts of the country. 37 However, this recent decline is not a unique event; in recent years, drought has reduced hydroelectric output even as China has been expanding its hydroelectric capacity. 38 Scientific models suggest that climate change is likely to exacerbate drought in East and Southeast Asia by affecting precipitation trends . 39

Thus, these conditions are likely to get worse, undermining China’s ability to generate renewable electricity from hydroelectric power and potentially reinforcing its demand for fossil fuels , including resources in the South China Sea . Although data remains limited, current evidence suggests that climate change will also affect fish migration in ways that could exacerbate competition in the South China Sea. According to a recent

U.N. study, warming ocean waters will drive fish species poleward (north, in the South China Sea). 40 As warm-water

species move north, cold-water fish species are likely to decline. Such changes in migration are likely to increase fishing in contested areas of the South China Sea, which may increase the number of confrontations involving fishing trawlers and worsen tensions between China and its South China Sea neighbors. Efforts to curb the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change will likely increase investments in the clean energy industry, which, in turn, will increase the strategic importance of minerals and metals in the South China Sea . Indeed, green technologies – including solar voltaic cells, wind turbines and high-efficiency batteries for electric vehicles – rely

on strategic materials that are vulnerable to supply disruptions. 41 In particular, China’s dominance of the global rare earths market is leading other countries to diversify their suppliers of these resources to ensure that their clean energy technologies are not vulnerable to Chinese supply disruptions. As argued previously, this may exacerbate diplomatic tensions by encouraging countries to extract more minerals from the South China Sea to protect their alternative energy supplies and to control access to these minerals in order to gain greater diplomatic leverage. In addition, climate change is likely to affect a wide range of other issues, from food production to the availability of fresh water, in ways that could affect regional stability. For example, severe flooding caused by rising sea levels is already affecting the agricultural and aquaculture

communities in the region’s littoral states. In Vietnam, such flooding and the accompanying salt water intrusion are already harming crucial agricultural and aquaculture production. Vietnamese agriculture relies on a certain amount of flooding each year – between one-half to three meters of flood waters – to support water-intensive rice production and coastal fish and shrimp harvesting. 42 However, recent studies have found that flooding of more than four meters has become more frequent and severe over the past several decades, crippling coastal aquaculture projects and destroying rice crops. 43 For Vietnam, therefore, environmental and climatic trends are already affecting internal development and stability

2AC – Yes War

Nuclear war – high risk of miscalc Hellman 12 (Martin, Professor @ Stanford University, http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/another-early-warning-sign/~~23more-1138)

The “World Anti-Fascist War” is what we call World War II – a war in which Japanese aggression killed almost 20 million Chinese, most of them civilians. The infamous “Rape of Nanking” is the best known of numerous atrocities and war crimes that Japan inflicted on China. This is not to say that the Senkaku/Diaoyu should be returned to China, only that we need to be aware of how high emotions run on both sides,

and that China has some legitimate grievances from the past. And, of course, Japan was not uniquely blood thirsty. Millions of Chinese died at Chinese hands during the Chinese Civil War; the mistakes of Mao’s Great Leap Forward led to millions of deaths; and the Cultural Revolution killed somewhere between half a million and three million more Chinese,

some by public beatings that could be likened to atrocities during the Rape of Nanking. Given the level of irrationality that is

possible on both sides , and the reasonable arguments that each side can advance for its claims to these islands, it is not in our national security interests to issue security guarantees to Japan over these islands. There is too much risk that our “insurance policy” will have to pay off, potentially with

a nuclear war and millions of American deaths . Such an outcome is unlikely, but if we keep risking small chances of being destroyed, eventually one will realize that potential.

Solvency

Solvency

IOOS is critical to accurate prediction and forecasting of ocean conditions and weather eventsLautenbacher 2013Conrad, Retired Vice Admiral and Board Member of the South East Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA), House Testimony, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP19/20130321/100498/HHRG-113-AP19-Wstate-LautenbacherV-20130321.pdf

Superstorm Sandy was unprecedented in its size and impact on the mid-Atlantic and northeastern regions of our country. We can all hope that this type of storm is not a new normal. Both before and during

the storm U.S. IOOS provided critical data that helped emergency managers prepare to protect lives and property, and enabled scientists and weather forecasters to better understand the storm’s track,

intensity and the resulting storm surge. However, our understanding and forecasts of hurricane and extratropical storm intensity must be improved. While significant gains have been made in recent years to forecasts of storm tracks, little improvement has been demonstrated over the past 20 years for storm intensity – in large part due to a lack of real-time data along the storm paths. Recent extreme events, including Superstorm Sandy and last year’s

Hurricane Irene, tragically reflect the need for enhancement of the nation’s observing and forecasting capabilities to meet the growing demands for accurate predictions of impacts. This FY 14 budget request will

provide a small initial investment in extreme event readiness for each of the 11 IOOS Regional Associations. The critical infrastructure that supports the nation’s readiness for the next extreme weather event, whether it’s a hurricane baring down on

the east coast, tsunami and flood on the west coast or extreme thunder storms in the Great Lakes region must be operational and ready to deliver. I am suggesting that we begin to make the necessary investment. This request is in addition to funding of S22.5 million that was requested through the Sandy Supplemental Appropriations Process to improve hurricane intensity forecasting in the five IOOS regions along the North Atlantic Storm Pathway. Assuming the funding appropriated by this Congress and initiated by this committee through H.R. 152 (S25 million to improve weather forecasting and hurricane intensity forecasting capabilities, to include data assimilation from ocean observing platforms and satellites) is applied by NOAA in the regions (IOOS Caribbean, IOOS Gulf of Mexico, IOOS Southeast, IOOS Mid-Atlantic, and IOOS Northeast) to address hurricane intensity forecast improvements, then the additional funding we are requesting will begin to fill some of the most critical gaps in our national observing system, repair and upgrade aging systems that have been operating for over 10 years, and harden a portion of our communication systems to bolster reliability during events. Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill IOOS also demonstrated its value during the tragic Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. The IOOS data management system rapidly and efficiently allowed for the seamless integration of data from non-federal sources for use by the Unified Area Command. Prior to this, valuable non- federal information collected by universities, state agencies or private companies was not assessable to federal responders. The IOOS data management system, based on interoperable standards and services, now allows for the integration of data from all relevant sources. In fact, approximately 75% of the data now served by NOAA's National Weather Service through the National Data Buoy Center is from non-federal sources, most of which is directly attributable to the work being done and supported by the Regional Associations. Information on surface currents from regional radars and models were provided to NOAA to assist with their daily projection of the location of the oil slick. Much of the oil from the spill remained subsurface where, despite the availability of technology, we lacked the ability to readily monitor the flow of oil. IOOS, through its regional network, redeployed several underwater gliders from around the country to assist with subsurface monitoring efforts. This unique and flexible capability is one of the hallmarks of the IOOS system.We must learn from these experiences and invest in critical observing assets so that when the next event – a spill, a

hurricane, a flood - happens, we are able to provide emergency managers and others with the best possible information. Without this capability, response and recovery operations will be negatively impacted, and federal responders will be forced to deploy people and ships during the event at much higher cost, and with higher risks to lives and property. Real-time Surface Current Information Aids Search and Rescue One of the unique capabilities IOOS funding supports is the nation’s surface current observing network, a system of land-based radars. These radar systems are able to detect the speed and direction of ocean currents regardless of cloud coverage. This information is relayed in real time to the Coast Guard’s environmental data server for use in search and rescue operations. The results of a four1day test in July 2009 showed that when HF radar data were ingested into the Search and Rescue

system, the search area was decreased by 66% over a 961hour period. This decrease in search area represents significant savings, both in lives and decreased search and rescue operational cost. A National Surface Current Mapping Plan estimates that $20 million is needed to build out this system nationwide. Our request to maintain current funding levels of $5 million will insure the priority radars currently operating continue to do so. Wise Investment An independent cost estimate of the IOOS system, conducted by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Science and Technology Directorate and submitted to Congress on November 9, 2012, estimates that the fully developed system – federal and regional, including weather and ocean satellites 1 to address key societal needs in next 15 years cost $54 billion. The regional component, as identified in regional build out plans, is estimated at $534 million annually to fulfill needs of

users for timely and quality information. At current funding levels for the regional systems near $25 million a year, we are only beginning to build the capacity necessary to meet user demands. Conclusion: IOOS Leads to Innovative Solutions In tight fiscal times, IOOS provides a pathway for bringing forward new solutions, and will play an ever-increasing role in meeting our Nation’s need for coastal ocean data and information. IOOS is a flexible system that can facilitate the transition from research and development to operations. IOOS’s capability to move vital observing assets from research institutions into operations in support of federal

response missions has been demonstrated, and will continue to be deployed to address unexpected events around the country. Regional observations are efficiently filling critical gaps not currently being met by our federal partners. IOOS is harnessing the flexibility and innovation of private and academic research and development capability. The networked capability represented by IOOS works, and has repeatedly demonstrated its value. IOOS is unique; IOOS is efficient; and IOOS is the future.

Solvency advocateJOCI 2011Joint Ocean Commission Initiative, AmericA’s OceAn Future Ensuring HEaltHy ocEans to support a vibrant Economy http://www.jointoceancommission.org/resource-center/1-Reports/2011-06-07_JOCI_Americas_Ocean_Future.pdf

Good ocean science will require consistent and dedicated investment. In this time of fiscal austerity, it may be

difficult to find new funds to enhance America's marine science capabilities. But investing in ocean science, research, and education is important to supporting economic as well as environmental well-being. Ocean-related data and information are critical for informed coastal development, efficient marine transportation, safe commercial fishing, and vibrant marine-based recreation and tourism. Communities that rely on these activities—and other goods and services that ocean and coastal ecosystems provide—need to be able to quantify their contribution to the economy so they can make good decisions about their management going forward. Education in ocean and coastal sciences and technology should also be improved as part of the national push to bolster our scientific and technical workforce, so that the U.S. can continue to lead an innovation-based global economy. Supporting a better understanding of our oceans and coasts is a sound economic investment for today and for the future. Ocean Observation, Monitoring, Modeling, and Assessment Successful implementation of the National Ocean Policy and its strategic goals will require coordination and investment in ocean and coastal observing, long-term monitoring, modeling, and

ecosystem assessment. These programs are essential for understanding the complex problems our ocean and coastal communities face; knowing whether our policies and management systems are meeting

environmental, social, and economic goals; identifying how our policies can be improved; and developing new and innovative solutions. Better decision making and long-term monitoring of the outcomes of those

decisions requires a fully developed and supported Integrated Ocean Observing System ( IOOS ). The IOOS integrates data on what is happening in our oceans—including data from sensors at the bottom of the ocean, from buoys on the ocean's surface, and from satellites with remote- sensing technology high above the Earth. The IOOS allows us to better understand, model, and forecast changes to the planet and its oceans. This in turn allows us to understand how these changes will affect ocean economies and

communities that depend on them, improve the safety of marine operations, improve national and homeland security, and mitigate the effects of natural hazards. Unfortunately, these benefits have been limited by insufficient commitment and investment. In one stark example, the federal government was unable to accurately

detect, monitor, or forecast the subsurface oil plume from the Gulf of Mexico spill, which resulted in uninformed management decisions, conflicting scientific predictions, and confusing communications with a concerned public. In addition to ocean observation and monitoring efforts, there is a strong need for the development of improved ocean-related models. Better models can help managers understand and forecast conditions under various planning scenarios and management approaches. They can improve our understanding of how the physical, biological, chemical, and human elements of ocean ecosystems interact. This is essential for the more integrated, coordinated, and forward-looking management of ocean resources. Gaining a comprehensive picture of the environmental, cultural, and economic characteristics of ocean and coastal ecosystems will be essential for improving our management of these resources. This includes gaining a better understanding of the contributions that ecosystem services and recreational uses make to our local, state, and national economies. Integrated ecosystem assessments at the regional or sub-regional scales can address this need. These assessments should go beyond a static snapshot and consider ecological, spatial, and temporal variations. They should be coordinated across federal agencies, states, tribes, and academic partners and should be regularly updated to serve as the basis for planning and management actions and a focal point for regional scientific efforts. RECOMMENDATION Congress and the Administration should fund and implement the Integrated Ocean Observing System so that managers can understand how ocean ecosystem changes will affect ocean resources, ocean economies, and the communities that depend on them. They should also support the development of better models for forecasting ocean conditions under various management scenarios.

Needs Funds

Increased funding for IOOS is key---the alternative is a fragmented approach and loss of observational resources due to inadequate fundsIOOS Summit Report 12, a report synthesizing outcomes from a meeting attended by 200 representatives and informed by white papers from hundreds of ocean observing experts, “IOOS Summit Report Version 1-3”, September 18, 2012, http://www.iooc.us/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/DRAFT-IOOS-Summit-Report-2012-09-18-V1-3.docxAlthough U.S. IOOS is a line item in the NOAA budget, it is largely an unfunded federal mandate . Many

naysayers continue to question the value of integration , believing that agency programs supported

with agency-unique budgets and supporting requirements are adequate . Clearly, this argument does not

address the inefficiencies of this fragmented approach , and fails to support U. S. IOOS as a national ocean enterprise. This current state of play makes it difficult for the U.S. IOOS efforts to be taken seriously by Federal partners . Challenge 8 lies at the heart of U.S. IOOS’ ‘ failure to thrive’ . What is needed are users and requirements

that can help make the case why improved , coordinated funding must occur to enable an effective, integrated

Federal backbone . In an effort to try to emphasize that we all benefit through the contributions of many, the U.S. IOOS has sometimes been called a

National Ocean Enterprise. However, the coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes communities can feel excluded by the “ocean” terminology, which makes this branding effort counter effective.¶ By meeting all the previously identified challenges, advocacy will develop naturally if the stakeholders and users are actively engaged and their requirements are being met. However, a proactive advocacy strategy that addresses federal agency, RA, private industry, and NGO roles and limitations is needed. Federal agencies obviously would have a very different role in this strategy than other stakeholders.¶ Recommendation 8A: NFRA should coordinate with private industry, the Consortium for Ocean Leadership and other stakeholders to develop an advocacy strategy. One element of the strategy should be to

incorporate advocacy elements into the R2O process recommended for Challenges 4 through 7.¶ Challenge 8B: Lack of proper funding can lead

to user alienation and loss of existing observational resources .¶ There is often an awkward interaction between users and the observing community that is trying to develop the U.S. IOOS because the conversations mix discussions about technical needs with those of financial support. The observing community has an earnest desire to define and fill user needs, but often cannot, having inadequate

funds to achieve the desired data stream, integrated product, or other informational assets. In this

situation, the issue of finances may be brought into the conversation prematurely, before the observing community has created credibility for their products. Such interactions create a perception that the U.S. IOOS entity is more interested in obtaining money than in meeting user needs. At the other end of the interaction spectrum, there are many users that have come to rely on observing system products without providing financial or political support for the system. The observing system community is not adept at culminating that supportive relationship into advocacy or funding even when the timing is appropriate.

US Data Key

US key – training ground and international model.Muller-Karger et al 2014Frank, Satellite Remote Sensing in Support of an Integrated Ocean Observing System, January 2, 2014, ieee Geoscience and remote sensing magazine, University of South Florida Oceanography Professor, https://marine.rutgers.edu/pubs/private/FMK_et_al_IEEE_GRSM2013.pdf

9. CONCLUSIONS Satellite imagery and satellite-derived data comprise a key element of the IOOS observing system in the US. It is a cornerstone technology for local as well as for large-scale and

international environmental assessment, research, and commercial applications. The US IOOS can

play a pivotal role in activities such as calibration and validation efforts, developing new research and

applications, refining a vision for Earth observation, and distributing science- quality, real-time and

archived products and timely infor- mation . The IOOS can help create efficiencies in develop- ing a regional infrastructure and capitalize on the human knowledge of each region. It can also help ensure viability of systems during emergencies. Ultimately, the IOOS can learn from international programs and also provide train- ing opportunities to the international community. A number of core remote sensing products are required by a broad range of stakeholders in the industry sector, and in operational and research communities. Basic products include sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, wind speed/direction, salinity, and sea surface height. Newer products to be added include indices of water quality, coastal and marine high spatial resolution habitat maps [status and trends), and biological diversity assessments. Many of these products, however, require the launch of a new generation of satellites. IOOS requires a strategy to coordinate the human capacity, and to fund, advance, and maintain the infra- structure that provides improved remote sensing observa- tions and support for the nation and societies around the globe. A partnership between the private, government, and academic sectors (Universities) will enhance remote sens- ing support and product development for critical coastal and deep-water regions based on infrared, ocean color, and microwave satellite sensors. This white paper emphasizes the need for IOOS 10 inform operational and research agen- cies in the United States of the types of observations and observing platforms required, including what types of sat- ellite sensors need to be launched in the future to maintain continuity of observations, and the types of new observa- tions required. Similar requirements of agencies and other stakeholders in other countries may be satisfied through collaboration with the IOOS or similar regional entities.

US data is critical – provides more than half of global sensor platformsLevy 2011Joel, NOAA Climate Program Office, Climate Observation Division The Global Ocean Observing Component of IOOS: Implementation of the Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate and the Path Forward http://www.plocan.eu/doc/MTS%20Journal_2011_Vol45-No1.pdf

The Observational Subsystems of the In Situ Observing System NOAA is the world leader in im- plementing the in situ elements of the global ocean observing system for cli- mate. The NOAA Climate Observa- tion Division sponsors the majority of the global components of the U.S. IOOS.7 The Climate Observation Di- vision manages implementation of the global ocean observing system as a set of observational networks Of Rlbsystom Each subsystem brings unique strengths and limitations; together they build die whole system. The subsystems provide stand-alone data sets and analyses but are

interdependent and function syn- ergistically, supplying the observational infrastructure that underlies national and international climate research and operational activities (see Figure 1). Currently, over 8,000 observational platforms are deployed throughout the global ocean, with plans to increase that number to bring the system into com- pliance with the initial GCOS design. NOAA sponsors nearly half of the plat- forms presently deployed in the global ocean, with over 70 other countries providing the remainder. Implementation of the U.S. obser- vational networks is accomplished by NOAA laboratories and university- based cooperative institutes, working in close partnership with each other under funding from the Climate Obser- vation Division. Satellites also provide critical contributions to global ocean observation, but operation of the satel- lites does not (all under the mandate of the Climate Observation Division.

US leadership is keyUS Commission on Ocean Policy 2004http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/oceancommission/documents/prelimreport/chapter29.pdf

The United States has been a leader in ocean science and research since creation of the U.S. Commission on Fish

and Fisheries in 1871. Eleven years later, the 234-foot USS Albatross entered service as the first U.S. research vessel built exclusively for fisheries and occanographic research. On land, major centers of activity included the Woods Hole Occanographic Institution, which has attracted scientists from around the world for more than a century, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, an innovator in marine technology since 1903. Over the last fifty years, dozens of other top-tier U.S. occanographic institutions have developed. If the United States is to maintain its leadership status, it must build on this tradition by strengthening

international scientific partnerships for the purpose of deepening the world's understanding of the oceans. International Ocean Science Programs International ocean research is conducted and coordinated by a variety of endues including the U.N. Intergovernmental Occanographic Commission (IOC), which has sponsored conferences and meetings on an array of topics in this field. These programs include efforts to understand EI Nino, the role of the oceans in the global carbon balance, climate variability, and algal blooms. The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), an interdisciplinary body of the International Council for Science, focuses on large-scale ocean research projects for long-term, complex activities. SCOR also promotes capacity building in developing countries by including scientists from such countries in its working groups and other activities. Other institutions, including the World Meteorological Organization, the U.N. Environment Program and the International Hydrographic Organization, arc doing valuable work on climate change, coral reefs, and ocean surveys. The United States participates in and contributes to collaborative international ocean research both to fulfill our global obligations and because it is in our national interest to do so. The more we know, the better we can protect our long-term stake in healthy and productive oceans. Recommendation 29—6. The United States should continue to participate in and fund major international ocean science organizations and programs. The Global Ocean

Observing System An international effort is underway to gain a better understanding of the current state of the world's oceans, and to revolutionize the ability to predict future ocean conditions. When fully realized, the Global Ocean Observing System will use state-of-the-art technology to integrate data streams from satellites and globally- deployed ocean sensors. These data will then be made available in usable form to resource managers, businesses, and the general public. This initiative is part of a larger international effort to create a system that integrates ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial observations. The U.S. role in helping to develop a Global Ocean Observing System is closely linked with efforts to improve ocean data collection on a national scale. The U.S. I ntegrated O cean O bserving S ystem will link the global system to regional ocean observing systems in the United States. The value of developing national and global observing systems is discussed in Chapter 26, as arc the needs for continued improvements in scientific and technological infrastructure, and enhanced international cooperation and coordination. Improving international coordination of ocean observations and integrating these observations into the broader suite of atmospheric and terrestrial observations, is a cornerstone of the ongoing effort to strengthen the role of science in international policy-making.

Integration Key

Integration through IOOS is key to effectiveness---the alternative is uncoordinated research that fails to deliver information to relevant decision-makersDavid L. Martin 3, PhD in Oceanography from the University of Washington, Associate Director, Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington, former Director of the Operational Oceanography Center at the Naval Oceanographic Office, “The National Oceanographic Partnership Program, Ocean.US, and Real Movement Towards an Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observing System,” Oceanography Vol 6 No 4, http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/16-4_martin_d.pdfThe oceans are of fundamental importance to our society. They are energy sources and modifiers of our weather, a buffer for the security of our nation, vast reservoirs of living resources, natural laboratories for scientists and educators, highways for national and international commerce and places of

recreation for our citizenry. Human population growth and its preferential concentration in coastal regions around

the world however is subjecting the oceans , particularly the coastal ecosystems, to increasing pressures and damaging their ability to deliver the goods and services, with those services ranging from the dilution of human effluent to serving as

nursery grounds for commercial fisheries, upon which we have come to depend. In order to make rational, scientifically

sound decisions about a host of activities that impact the ocean and coastal ecosystems, we must have two fundamental capabilities: first, we must be able, on a comprehensive and cosmopolitan basis, to monitor the present state of the ocean and coastal ecosystems , and second, we must be able to make robust predictions about the future states of these ecosystems. We have neither of these capabilities today . ¶ As a nation, the U nited S tates has

historically responded to these two grand challenges in an uncoordinated and frequently competitive fashion . Thus,

when considering the sum of all ocean monitoring related efforts across the various governmental components of our

federalist structure (e.g., federal, tribal, state and local), these programs are frequently duplicative , are inherently inefficient from a

resource expenditure standpoint, and, most importantly, they fail to deliver information and knowledge on the causes and

consequences of anthropogenic actions and natural variability in a timely enough manner to allow

their incorporation into scientifically sound decision making about the ocean and coastal environment. This

need not be the case . There has been a convergence of interests and understanding about the importance

of developing and maintaining an integrated and sustained ocean observing system ( IOOS ) in both the international and national arenas over the past

decade. Because of this decadal focus on sustained ocean observations and convergence of interests in the political realm that understand the importance of developing this vital national capability, the time has come to close the gap between scientifically sound, long-term ocean observations and the decision making process.

2AC Off case

STEM Add-on

Better ocean data attracts new STEM majorsYoder 2012Jim Yoder has a B.A. in Botany from DePauw University and a M.S. and Ph.D. from the University of Rhode Island in Oceanography, former Director, Division of Ocean Sciences National Science Foundation http://livebettermagazine.com/article/ocean-observing-systems-stimulating-interest-in-stem/Ocean observing systems and ocean observatories are being developed and deployed in the U.S. and around the

world to make sustained and continuous oceanographic measurements and to deliver that information in real-time to research, operational and commercial users. Many also see educational applications from data collected by ocean

observing systems, including real-time data. A challenge for the educators is whether data from these systems can help generate student interest in STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) and, thus, become an important tool for training the scientific and technical workforce of tomorrow. Real-time data is potentially interesting, even exciting, to students because students will be seeing the data at the same time as scientists and everyone else. This raises the possibility that students and other learners will be active participants in the discovery process. The hope is that this potentially interesting and exciting data from the ocean systems will help stimulate interest in STEM in general and in the ocean environment in particular. For this to occur, however, educators need to package real-time and other data from observing systems in a form and context that can be readily used and interpreted by students. Ocean observing systems are not a new concept, although using the data for educational purposes is comparatively new. The U.S. Navy has had ocean observing systems in place for military purposes for many decades. For example, development of the Navy’s Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) for using acoustic signatures to track Russian submarines was started long ago. ARGO is an example of an international civilian ocean observing program that was started more than a decade ago. ARGO involves international ocean scientists who deploy thousands of profiling floats throughout the global ocean using commercial, oceanographic and other ships of opportunity. The floats move with ocean currents and measure temperature and salinity with depth (profiles) from the surface to 2000m, as well as the average speed of ocean currents. Each float cycles from the surface to 2000m every 10 days and each has an operational lifetime of about 4-5 years. Each float thus has the potential for measuring hundreds of profiles. When the float is at the surface it transmits its data via satellite links back to processing centers in Brest, France, or Monterey, Calif. All ARGO data are publically available in near real-time at no charge. With more than 3,500 floats scattered throughout the global ocean, ARGO temperature, salinity and velocity data can be used to teach basic concepts like temperature patterns of the global ocean, how to read and interpret graphs and illustrate complex ocean phenomena, such as how climate change is affecting the ocean. Given the broad range of possible audiences for learning about ARGO, educators are using several different approaches: materials and lesson plans for classrooms, workshops that target the science community and online resources, such as Google Earth and Wikipedia, which provide the public (free-choice learners) the capability to study the ocean with ARGO data. These approaches are similar to what is now being developed for other observing systems. The U.S. is developing two new ocean observing systems and both include educational applications in their respective portfolios. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is leading the development of an operational system called the “Integrated Ocean Observing System” ( IOOS ). The purpose of IOOS is to provide information and data to increase understanding of U.S. coastal waters so decision-makers can take action to improve safety, enhance the economy and protect the environment. The National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) is constructing infrastructure to support sensors to measure physical, chemical, geological and biological variables in the ocean and seafloor to support scientific research. The total national investment in both of these systems will likely exceed $500M by 2015, and the costs to operate will likely exceed more than $50M per year. The systems are anticipated to have a major impact on ocean science research and operations. In addition to research and operational users,

educational applications for data from IOOS and OOI are being developed, including educational uses of data delivered in near real-time. As mentioned above, the challenge for educators is to package real-time data in a form and context that can be readily used and interpreted by students and their teachers. This is particularly challenging for K-12 audiences because younger students and their teachers lack experience and tools to produce analytical products, such as simple statistics and graphs from raw data streams. Putting data products into an oceanographic context is also difficult when students lack basic knowledge of the ocean environment. For example, a series of graphs showing how ocean water temperature changes with depth, and why those profiles change with season, is not very interesting in itself. Students need the context, e.g. they also need to understand something about mixing between surface and deeper waters as well as how seasonal changes in the amount of solar energy reaching surface ocean waters affects ocean mixing, and why this is important. Younger students likely will need to work with data products produced for them by their teachers or by online educators that display data in very simple ways and then link it to a lesson plan that puts the observations into the right context (example). With the possible exception of advanced high-school students, real-time data streams from ocean observing systems are probably not for K-12 students. Nevertheless, younger students with adequate guidance can still learn about daily and seasonal changes

in the ocean and why they occur by looking at a sequence of graphs produced for them. They can also learn about organisms that live in the ocean from video streams associated with ocean observatories , such as Neptune and Venus. Ocean observing data will obviously be most useful if it can be linked to national and state science standards. The process for how K-12 students and teachers can effectively use data from observing systems, including real-time data to better train students to participate in the STEM workforce of the future, was described recently as a process involving four key steps (Hotaling 2007). Step one is the ocean observing data needs to be accessible, which means the data needs to be available, including to schools and classrooms lacking sophisticated computers and fast networks. It also needs to be understandable by non-specialists, i.e. it has to be in context of important and simply described ocean processes. Step two is the data has to be useable, which means it must be engaging and meaningful, fit within STEM curricula and satisfy educational standards. Step three is teachers themselves must be adequately trained so they are comfortable using and discussing ocean observing data in a classroom. This requires effective professional development via online or face-to-face training or a combination thereof. Step four is the importance of preparation at the K-12 level, so students entering four-year or community colleges know something about how to apply observatory data to real-life situations. This would lead to much quicker and effective training of a well-qualified STEM workforce with the skills to manage and utilize data from sensors and sensor networks, whether associated with ocean observations or any other sensor network, including those associated with commercial operations. A top priority for educational uses of data from NSF’s Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) is the focus on special tools and lessons for undergraduates. Undergraduate class projects and senior theses can obviously take better advantage of real-time and other observatory data than K-12 students given that undergrads have better skills and access to better analysis tools as well as more time to analyze and interpret longer records of observations. The expectation is that undergraduate ocean science or other science majors, non-science majors and community college students can work with real-time data, if provided the software tools to simplify data streams and to provide context. The first three steps listed above for K-12 are certainly applicable to undergraduate students and their professors, although college science professors should not need the level of professional development that K-12 teachers will require. Data analysis tools for undergraduates, and perhaps advanced high-school students, need to be scaled to examine relations between, perhaps, just two ocean variables – temperature and salinity, for example. Furthermore, there has to be a web-based framework that puts the data into context for undergraduates. A web interface, for example, could allow an undergraduate interested in undersea earthquakes to examine the real-time record of an undersea seismometer (basically a chart showing the strength of earth movements) while at the time ingesting and then watching video illustrating different types of undersea lava flows. The most sophisticated college users, such as ocean science graduate students and ocean science faculty, will likely use commercially available data analysis packages to study relations between many data sources and from many locations.

STEM leadership’s key to the sustainability and legitimacy of hegemony– independently solves extinctionColetta, USAF Professor of Political Science, 09(Damon, Duke University , Ph.D. in Political Science, December 1999 Harvard University , Master in Public Policy, 1993 Stanford University , Master in Electrical Engineering, 1989 Stanford University , B.S.E.E., 1988, “Science, Technology, and the Quest for International Influence,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536133&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Less appreciated is how scientific progress facilitates diplomatic strategy in the long run, how it contributes to Joseph Nye‘s

soft power, which translates to staying power in the international arena . One possible escape from the

geopolitical forces depicted in Thucydides‘ history for all time is for the current hegemon to maintain its lead in science,

conceived as a national program and as an enterprise belonging to all mankind. Beyond the new technologies for projecting military or economic power, the scientific ethos conditions the hegemon‘s approach to social-political problems. It effects how the leader organizes itself and other states to address well-springs of discontent—material inequity, religious or ethnic

oppression, and environmental degradation. The scientific mantle attracts others‘ admiration, which softens or at least complicates other societies‘ resentment of power disparity . Finally, for certain global problems—nuclear proliferation, climate change, and financial crisis—the scientific lead ensures robust representation in transnational epistemic communities that can shepherd intergovernmental negotiations onto a conservative,

or secular, path in terms of preserving international order. In today‘s order, U.S. hegemony is yet in doubt even though military and economic indicators confirm its status as the world‘s lone superpower . America possesses the material wherewithal to maintain its lead in the sciences, but it also desires to bear the standard for freedom and democracy. Unfortunately, patronage of basic science does not automatically flourish with liberal democracy. The free market and the

mass public impose demands on science that tend to move research out of the basic and into applied realms. Absent the lead in basic discovery,

no country can hope to pioneer humanity‘s quest to know Nature. There is a real danger U.S. state and society could

permanently confuse sponsorship of technology with patronage of science, thereby delivering a self-inflicted blow to U.S. leadership among nations.

2AC – Europe CP

US data is critical – provides more than half of global sensor platformsLevy 2011Joel, NOAA Climate Program Office, Climate Observation Division The Global Ocean Observing Component of IOOS: Implementation of the Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate and the Path Forward http://www.plocan.eu/doc/MTS%20Journal_2011_Vol45-No1.pdf

The Observational Subsystems of the In Situ Observing System NOAA is the world leader in im- plementing the in situ elements of the global ocean observing system for cli- mate. The NOAA Climate Observa- tion Division sponsors the majority of the global components of the U.S. IOOS.7 The Climate Observation Di- vision manages implementation of the global ocean observing system as a set of observational networks Of Rlbsystom Each subsystem brings unique strengths and limitations; together they build die whole system. The subsystems provide stand-alone data sets and analyses but are interdependent and function syn- ergistically, supplying the observational infrastructure that underlies national and international climate research and operational activities (see Figure 1). Currently, over 8,000 observational platforms are deployed throughout the global ocean, with plans to increase that number to bring the system into com- pliance with the initial GCOS design. NOAA sponsors nearly half of the plat- forms presently deployed in the global ocean, with over 70 other countries providing the remainder. Implementation of the U.S. obser- vational networks is accomplished by NOAA laboratories and university- based cooperative institutes, working in close partnership with each other under funding from the Climate Obser- vation Division. Satellites also provide critical contributions to global ocean observation, but operation of the satel- lites does not (all under the mandate of the Climate Observation Division.

International CPs bad – our interp is they get US based agent counterplans which solves their offense. Reject the team

1 – not an opportunity cost, no one can decide between the US and Europe. Tanks decisionmaking skills.

2 – not reciprocal, we only get the USFG

3 – they can’t have data exchange, US action undermines any logical benefit to the counterplan.

Only US data solves international ecosystem management – historical ocean leadership role.US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/oceancommission/documents/prelimreport/chapter29.pdf

The United States has been a leader in ocean science and research since creation of the U.S. Commission on Fish

and Fisheries in 1871. Eleven years later, the 234-foot USS Albatross entered service as the first U.S. research vessel built exclusively for fisheries and occanographic research. On land, major centers of activity included the Woods Hole Occanographic Institution, which has attracted scientists from around the world for more than a century, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, an innovator in marine technology since 1903. Over the last fifty years, dozens of other top-tier U.S. occanographic institutions have

developed. If the United States is to maintain its leadership status, it must build on this tradition by strengthening

international scientific partnerships for the purpose of deepening the world's understanding of the oceans. International Ocean Science Programs International ocean research is conducted and coordinated by a variety of endues including the U.N. Intergovernmental Occanographic Commission (IOC), which has sponsored conferences and meetings on an array of topics in this field. These programs include efforts to understand EI Nino, the role of the oceans in the global carbon balance, climate variability, and algal blooms. The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), an interdisciplinary body of the International Council for Science, focuses on large-scale ocean research projects for long-term, complex activities. SCOR also promotes capacity building in developing countries by including scientists from such countries in its working groups and other activities. Other institutions, including the World Meteorological Organization, the U.N. Environment Program and the International Hydrographic Organization, arc doing valuable work on climate change, coral reefs, and ocean surveys. The United States participates in and contributes to collaborative international ocean research both to fulfill our global obligations and because it is in our national interest to do so. The more we know, the better we can protect our long-term stake in healthy and productive oceans. Recommendation 29—6. The United States should continue to participate in and fund major international ocean science organizations and programs. The Global Ocean

Observing System An international effort is underway to gain a better understanding of the current state of the world's oceans, and to revolutionize the ability to predict future ocean conditions. When fully realized, the Global Ocean Observing System will use state-of-the-art technology to integrate data streams from satellites and globally- deployed ocean sensors. These data will then be made available in usable form to resource managers, businesses, and the general public. This initiative is part of a larger international effort to create a system that integrates ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial observations. The U.S. role in helping to develop a Global Ocean Observing System is closely linked with efforts to improve ocean data collection on a national scale. The U.S. I ntegrated O cean O bserving S ystem will link the global system to regional ocean observing systems in the United States. The value of developing national and global observing systems is discussed in Chapter 26, as arc the needs for continued improvements in scientific and technological infrastructure, and enhanced international cooperation and coordination. Improving international coordination of ocean observations and integrating these observations into the broader suite of atmospheric and terrestrial observations, is a cornerstone of the ongoing effort to strengthen the role of science in international policy-making.

Permutation do both – shields the net benefit.

Preserving US marine ecosystems is key to avoid extinction and global biosphere collapse. CP can’t put sensors in our waters.Robin Kundis Craig 3, Associate Professor of Law, focusing on Environmental Law, at Indiana University School of Law, Winter 2003, “ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii,” 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, lexisBiodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste treatment is another significant, non-

extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global

geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms , carbon,

nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements." n858 In a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life . ¶ Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity.¶ [*265] ¶ Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many

otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860¶ Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide . Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness.¶ However, economic value, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of

human activities on marine ecosystems. The U nited S tates has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems

because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans , but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though

we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine

marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.¶ We may not know much about the sea, but we

do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves , and we will take most of the biosphere with us . The Black Sea is almost dead, n863 its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies, "starving out fish and dolphins, emptying fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into brainless, wraith-like blobs of jelly." n864 More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique.¶ The Black Sea is a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. The stresses piled up: overfishing, oil spills, industrial discharges, nutrient pollution, wetlands destruction, the introduction of an alien species. The sea weakened, slowly at first, then collapsed with [*266] shocking suddenness. The lessons of this tragedy should not be lost to the rest of us, because much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world. The ecological stresses imposed on the Black Sea were not unique to communism. Nor, sadly, was the failure of governments to respond to the emerging crisis. n865¶ Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appear with increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers, forcing marine animals to flee and killing all that cannot. n866 Ethics as

well as enlightened self-interest thus suggest that the U nited S tates should protect fully-functioning

marine ecosystems wherever possible - even if a few fishers go out of business as a result.

Effective coastal conservation in the US is key to human survivalJeronimo Pan 13, PhD in Marine and Atmospheric Sciences from Stony Brook University; Dr. M. Alejandra Marcoval, Research Scientist at the Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata in Argentina; Sergio M. Bazzini, Micaela V. Vallina, and Silvia G. De Marco, “Coastal Marine Biodiversity Challenges and Threats,” Chapter 2 in Marine Ecology in a Changing World, p. 44, google booksCoastal areas provide critical ecological services such as nutrient cycling , flood control, shoreline

stability , beach replenishment and genetic resources (Post and Lundin 1996, Scavia et al. 2002). Some estimates by

Boesch (1999), mention that the ocean and coastal systems contribute 63% of the total value of Earth’s ecosystem services (worth $21 trillion year1). Population growth is a major concern for coastal areas with more than 50% of the world

population concentrated within 60 km of the coast (Post and Lundin 1996); in the United States the expected tendency for the next decades is that the coastal population will increase by ~25% (Scavia et al. 2002). The continued growth of human population and of per capita consumption have resulted in unsustainable

exploitation of Earth’s bio logical diversity , exacerbated by climate change, ocean acidification, and other

anthropogenic environmental impacts . The effective conservation of biodiversity is essential for

human survival and the maintenance of ecosystem processes.

Aff A2 Farms DA

2AC

No regulation---farmers are too politically powerfulSpencer Hunt 10, The Columbus Dispatch, Oct 15 2010, “States go soft on polluting farms,” http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2010/10/12/soft-on-polluters.htmlStates go soft on polluting farms¶ Few politicians are willing to regulate operations to reduce runoff that

poisons streams, rivers, lakes and bays¶ By Spencer Hunt ¶ The Columbus Dispatch • Friday October 15, 2010 5:07 AM¶ States go soft on polluting farms -¶

Politicians love farmers. And fear them . ¶ Public officials will take on industrial mills , foundries,

factories and sewage-treatment plants that pollute our water, but they shy away from touching farms .¶ It's a

fundamental difference in environmental policy that has existed for decades, and it persists with the

help of farm-industry groups that persuade lawmakers to limit policy primarily to voluntary programs and

cash incentives, say environmental advocates and industry experts.¶ "We implicitly have decided as a society that agriculture has the right to decide how much pollution to emit , and then we ask them voluntarily to cut back," said Catherine Kling, an

economist and environmental-policy expert at Iowa State University's Center for Agricultural and Rural Development.

Farm labor shortage will wreck food productionJim Mosely 6/27, former deputy secretary of the US Dept of Agriculture, and A.G. Kawamura, former California Secretary of Agriculture, “Why farmers see fertile ground in immigration reform,” http://www.appeal-democrat.com/opinion/jim-moseley-ag-kamamura-why-farmers-see-fertile-ground-in/article_476c1ca0-fda7-11e3-a05f-0017a43b2370.htmlWe are farmers who raise different types of crops in different regions of our country . Like all farmers, we have lived through difficult

periods when bad weather, low prices or weak demand had us doubting we would survive. Whether organic or conventional producers, we all seek the same result — a good harvest and robust markets for our crops. ¶ We accept the unpredictability of weather and market demand; and we — like good business people — invest in new technologies such as water systems, mechanization and improved seeds to bring as much stability as possible to our

operations. Ironically, at just the time when demand is increasing, we are hamstrung by something over which we really should have more control —

our nation's labor supply.¶ Our current immigration system is widely considered broken and a drag on our country's economic growth. Only in America, the "land of plenty," do you see unharvested crops spoil in the field due to a shortage of labor . To a farmer, this is the

worst kind of waste to bear. An unwillingness to consider any type of reform measure when the problem is so well known is irresponsible. You would expect that complaints and calls for reform from groups as diverse as farmers, high-tech companies, law enforcement and religious leaders would trigger action. Yet, a year after the U.S. Senate passed comprehensive immigration reform, chances for the House to act this year look murky at best. Our current situation is an embarrassment and failing to act hurts everyone.¶ Failure to act hurts farmworkers: Skilled farmworkers deserve an opportunity to earn their way to a better future without the threat of deportation. Surely, our Congress can come to an agreement on a market-based and flexible program that provides for a legal workforce into the future and an adjustment for current hardworking and experienced, yet unauthorized, agricultural workers.

Polling across the political spectrum has consistently revealed widespread support for allowing undocumented immigrants to live and work legally in the United States.¶ Failure to act hurts farmers and ranchers: Without enough workers, farms and ranches are gradually shrinking , and as a result,

farm production is moving overseas. A 2012 survey by the California Farm Bureau in that state alone found that 71 percent of tree fruit growers and nearly 80 percent of raisin and berry growers could not find enough workers for their production needs.

Vegetable farmers have scaled back operations and more than 80,000 acres of fresh produce once grown in California has moved to other countries. This has grown to a nationwide issue affecting practically every state and includes fruit and vegetable producers, sheep ranchers, dairy and

hog producers, large farmers that grow commodity grains and small farmers who need seasonal labor to offer their products at the local farmers market.

US not key---Brazil can produce the world’s foodR. Bruce Hull 13, Professor of Leadership for Sustainability at Virgnia Tech, PhD in Environmental Conservation from Virginia Tech, Senior Fellow at the Center for Leadership in Global Sustainability“Brazil can feed the world,” March 1 2013, http://www.constructingsustainability.com/brazil-can-feed-the-world.htmlBrazil is known for its stunning scenery, tasty caipirinhas, tantalizing carnivals, mighty Amazon river and enormous rainforest, but its real fame will come from the contributions of water and arable land to the 2050 story. Brazil can feed the world . ¶ Take soybeans as an example. Already China imports 14% of its water needs by its strategic decision to buy

soybeans from Brazil rather than grow the water-hungry crop domestically. Soybean exports from Brazil increased five-

fold in the last decade to meet that demand. This trend seems likely to continue because China’s demand for imported soybeans is projected to

increase more than 40% over the next decade.¶ Brazil has more spare farmland than any country in the world. The FAO

puts its total potential arable land at over 400 million hectares , with only 50 million being used. In northern

Brazil, where massive ports are being built to handle exponentially increasing grain exports, the land suitable for farming grains totals 7.5 million hectares, only

17.9%, or little over one million hectares, are currently managed for agriculture, mainly by low-efficiency pasture-fed livestock operations. Soybeans occupy only 0.46% of the area that in theory could be expanded for farmland without deforestation.

Much of the land is protected rainforest and thus Brazil’s untapped potential is much larger.¶ Brazil also has the water, as much as the whole of Asia. Importantly, the land and the water are in the same place , a good fortune many countries don’t have. Even one

of the Brazil’s driest areas gets a third more water than America’s bread basket . ¶ Can Brazilian agricultural production be sustainable while protecting the rainforest? Yes. Take soy as an example. Sustainable practices are possible and encouraged thanks to the impressive partnership Brazilian state and national governments such as SEMA, multinational commodity traders such as Cargill, and local and international ENGOs such as The Nature Conservancy. The Soybean Moratorium is a brokered agreement by major exporters to

not buy soybeans grown on land created by deforesting the rainforest. Moreover, the model partnership of TNC, Cargill, and SEMA, has created a land registry program ( CAR) that provides the accountability and transparency necessary for a stable, sustainable agriculture development trajectory that enforces Brazil’s powerful environmental regulations (such as the

Forest Code), builds infrastructure and economic development opportunities of residents, and is creating the potential to feed

the world .

Food scarcity does not lead to warIdean Salehyan 7, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas, “The New Myth About Climate Change Corrupt, tyrannical governments—not changes in the Earth’s climate—will be to blame for the coming resource wars.” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2007/08/13/the_new_myth_about_climate_changeFirst, aside from a few anecdotes, there is little systematic empirical evidence that resource scarcity and changing

environmental conditions lead to conflict. In fact, several studies have shown that an abundance of natural resources is more likely to contribute to conflict. Moreover, even as the planet has warmed, the number of civil wars and insurgencies has decreased dramatically. Data collected by researchers at Uppsala University and the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo shows a steep decline in the number of armed conflicts around the world. Between 1989 and 2002, some 100 armed conflicts came to an end, including the wars in Mozambique, Nicaragua, and Cambodia. If global warming causes conflict, we should not be witnessing this downward trend. Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the crisis in Darfur, why have scores of environmental catastrophes failed to set off

armed conflict elsewhere ? For instance, the U.N. World Food Programme warns that 5 million people in

Malawi have been experiencing chronic food shortages for several years. But famine-wracked Malawi has yet to experience a major civil war . Similarly, the Asian tsunami in 2004 killed hundreds of thousands of people,

generated millions of environmental refugees, and led to severe shortages of shelter, food , clean water, and electricity. Yet the

tsunami, one of the most extreme catastrophes in recent history, did not lead to an outbreak of resource wars . Clearly then,

there is much more to armed conflict than resource scarcity and natural disasters.

Ext Regs Impossible

Regulations are politically impossibleJocelyn B. Garovoy 3, JD Candidate at UC Berkeley School of Law, M.A. in Conservation Biology from the University of Pennsylvania, “’A Breathtaking Assertion of Power’? Not Quite. Pronsolino v. Nastri and the Still Limited Role of Federal Regulation of Nonpoint Source Pollution,” Ecology Law Quarterly Vol. 30 No. 2, http://new.nationalaglawcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/assets/bibarticles/garovoy_breathtaking.pdfThe diffuse nature and diverse sources of nonpoint source pollution, combined -with political

opposition from agriculture, timber, and development interests, have made effective nonpoint source

regulation nearly impossible .44 First, the regulation of nonpoint source pollution poses technical challenges. Sediment from one logging area or

pesticide residue from a particular farm can be indistinguishable from other local sources of nonpoint source pollution, complicating efforts to set specific pollution

limits or mandate stream protection measures in a given watershed or region.45 The political obstacles pose even greater problems ,. as

the actual sources behind nonpoint source pollution, agriculture, timber, and development interests strongly oppose federal

regulation of nonpoint source pollution.46 These political forces , coupled with technological challenges related to determining the origin of

nonpoint source pollution, have prevented effective regulation . While EPA has proposed several methods to

states for making TMDL allocations among the various nonpoint source polluters, none of these methods make it politically palatable

for a state " to place its head into the jaws of a public utility, a chemical plant, or [ a] local farmer " to establish permit limits.47

Too many obstaclesAFT 13, American Farmland Trust’s Center for Agriculture in the Environment, August 2013, “Controlling Nutrient Runoff on Farms,” http://www.farmland.org/documents/FINAL-ControllingNutrientRunoffonFarms.pdfDirect regulation of nutrient runoff from farms is highly unlikely in the United States (Williams 2002). The

geographic dimensions make “federally designed, nationally uniform technology based performance and emissions standards” difficult to implement without a marked increase in budgeting for individual farm permitting, monitoring and enforcement. Local variations in weather, soil salinity, and soil erosion potential, leaching potential, and freshwater availability present further challenges to an effective national regulatory regime. Variations in crop type, production practices, livestock type and concentration, use of irrigation, tillage practices, sediment runoff and fertilizer runoff all contribute to the difficulty of “one size fits all” regulation. Social factors like proximity to metropolitan area, and surrounding land use also influence farm practices. EPA has noted that a program of this breadth would make it very difficult to implement and enforce regulations. ¶ The

economic dimensions of agriculture also pose barriers to regulation . Agriculture in the United States has vast economic value, yet is dispersed widely across the country and by landowner . Faced with the rising costs of inputs

and equipment, the farm industry is quickly consolidating. Increased environmental regulation of farms may reduce their economic viability due to compliance costs. And the political dimensions, mentioned earlier, that make regulation of agriculture difficult include a consolidated

voting block , strong lobbying and political pressure .

Ext Labor Shortage

Even if immigration reform happened, the shortage would still be devastatingMark Koba 14, CNBC, “The shortage of farm workers and your grocery bill,” 15 May 2014, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101671861#Even as they plant this spring, many American farmers will face an ongoing problem at harvest time—having enough workers to pick their crops.¶ And a remedy to the shortage is unlikely anytime soon—and not even immigration reform, currently stalled in Congress, would do the trick, said one analyst.¶ "There's a perception with farmers and others that immigration reform will help legally bring in more farm workers," said J. Edward Taylor, a professor of agriculture at the University of California, Davis, and an expert on immigration and farm labor issues.¶ "But it really won't solve the shortage in the long run, if they do pass a reform bill, " he said.¶ Taylor, who co-wrote a paper

this month on farm labor challenges, noted that the main provider of low-wage agricultural workers in the U.S., at nearly 70 percent, has been Mexico.¶ But Mexico is drying up as a source . That's because rural Mexicans are getting a better education, courtesy of more government spending, and rejecting farm work, even in their own country.¶ "The nonfarm economy in Mexico is growing and it's creating new jobs that require engineering and managerial skills and giving better wages," said Taylor. "That's where

young people are going."¶ Taylor also said this switch in career goals is adding to the worker shortage as older farm laborers in the U.S. are ready to stop working and aren't going to be replaced . And any replacements

that might be on their way have been stopped by tougher border controls and increased deportations. ¶ However, it's not only Mexico's younger generation that's rejecting the harder farm work, said Charles Trauger, territory manager at market data firm GlobalView.¶

" Americans themselves don't seem willing to take the harder farming jobs," said Trauger, who has a farm in

Nebraska.¶ " Nobody's taking them. People want to live in the city instead of the farm," he said. "Hispanics who usually do that work are going to

higher paying jobs in packing plants and other industrial areas."

Migrant worker shortages wreck US food production---crops are left to rotS.E. Smith 11, Global Comment, Oct 10 2011, “No Migrants, No Food: How Anti-immigration Laws are Creating Farm Worker Shortages,” http://globalcomment.com/how-anti-immigration-laws-are-creating-farm-worker-shortages/#Crops are rotting on the vine in the U nited S tates, thanks to a shortage of workers to pick them, resulting in

substantial losses for farmers and their communities at the same time that people in the U nited S tates are going

hungry , and relying on government assistance for nutritional needs, more and more. The food system in the United States has become far more complex than

a simple farm to table progression, but worker shortages do raise a serious potential threat to bringing in the harvest

and tie in with larger political issues. In an agricultural system built on exploitation, tough immigration laws are getting rid of one of the easiest groups of people to exploit: undocumented immigrants who have everything to lose if they attempt to report labour violations, assert their rights, or, apparently, go to work in the fields.¶ Despite ample evidence to the contrary, the old rhetoric about immigrants ‘stealing jobs,’ contributing to rises in crime, and ‘gaming the system’ to take advantage of the dwindling number of social services that have survived vicious budget slashing still runs high. Members of the general public are convinced they need rescuing from immigrants, and that tightening the borders and creating a hostile climate in individual states will solve ‘the immigration problem.’ Hand in hand with these attitudes goes a culture of racism, as only certain immigrants are deemed a ‘problem,’ while others are considered desirable and beneficial. There is an

inescapable and direct correlation between skin colour and social acceptance for immigrants to the US.¶ The migrant worker shortage is an entirely

manufactured issue, created by draconian anti-immigration laws , part of a growing national trend in the US. All 50 states proposed

immigration-related legislation this year, including tough ‘papers, please’ mandates ordering law enforcement to stop ‘suspicious’ individuals, compelling officers to verify immigration status in routine police matters, and requiring use of the flawed E-Verify system to confirm that workers are eligible for employment in the US. Some of the harshest segments of these controversial laws have withstood legal challenges in state courts, and the naked racism on display in the arguments for byzantine immigration legislation is evidence of the success of right-wing anti-immigration rhetoric, which has effectively sown fear and panic among many whites in

the US.¶ In reaction to these legal shifts, the Latino population has been fleeing several states to seek work elsewhere, in more hospitable climates. Migrant workers in particular are often undocumented, or are members of families

with mixed documentation, creating a risk that parents may be deported while children remain behind. Many are not willing to take that risk. States were historically happy to exploit migrant labour for grueling farmwork, to the point that many economies are specifically dependent on undocumented immigrants , and were ill-prepared to lose large segments of their workforce. The

consequences have been devastating in agriculture-heavy states that have also passed immigration crackdowns.

Ext Brazil Solves

Brazil already is passing up the US in food productionGDP 11, Global Development Partners, Dec 1 2011, “Brazil: The World’s Food Source and Influencer of U.S.-China relations,” http://gdp-inc.com/2011/12/brazil-the-worlds-food-source-and-political-balance-us-china/A recent study by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reveals that Brazil is poised to overtake U nited

S tates – currently number one globally – in poultry production by the end of 2011. Other studies have hinted

to Brazil becoming one the world’s largest producer of crops, meat and other foods by 2025.¶ Aside from

vast fertile land , two climate zones, flourishing rivers and over 8,000 kilometers of ocean-front, Brazil also has many attributes and

factors in its favor to become the world’s food super-power :¶ Agricultural know-how: Skilled professionals with

robust agri-science and business acumen. They have the knowledge to execute well, and the affordable labor to get it done.¶ Capital : Both domestic and foreign. Local land owners want to increase yield. Foreign investors want the return. Solid match.¶ Farming Infrastructure: the roadways

to and from many farms may be atrocious, but the industrial farming capabilities (think 30+ harvesters canvassing a field in staggered

formation) rank as some of the best and largest in the world. It takes capital and experience to pull it off. Brazil now has both, even if its non-farming infrastructure needs help.¶ Meaningful factors, no doubt. But one often overlooked, yet of increasing influence, is that of the growing (and hungry)

Chinese population.¶ A recent New York Times article highlights Brazil’s central role in feeding the Chinese – a role that is anticipated to grow in the foreseeable future . With a growing population and a challenged landscape on which to (sustainably) grow a broader array of crops, China gets the fact it needs help feeding its people. Couple Brazil’s rapidly-growing economy, tech savvy young

population, and growing appetite for foreign direct capital and new domestic ventures, it is easy to see why Brazil’s ability to supply much-

needed food has become both an economic driver as a strategic imperative.

Brazil can feed the worldKatia Abreu 12, Senator of the Republic through the state of Tocantins, Brazil, 2/27/2012, “Brazil Can Feed the World Without Harming Nature,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/katia-abreu/brazil-can-feed-the-world_b_1304860.htmlBrazil is prepared to feed the world without destroying the environment. Our agriculture has grown 247.13% in the last 35 years, but has saved 73.3 million hectares of natural forest. This was the result of investments in technology, generating 151% gains in productivity, even though the area occupied by rural activity increased 31% only in

the same period. Brazil is one of the most sustainable agricultural productions on the planet, but rural activity

takes just 27.7% of our territory, while maintaining 61% of the preserved land.¶ Brazilian agronomic yield numbers are impressive and it makes Brazil the third largest food manufacturer in the world , including for the production of

bio-fuels. In 2010, Brazil was the largest producer and exporter of sugar, coffee, orange juice and ethanol . The United States alone imported US$ 3.1 billion in agrarian goods from Brazil that year, an increase of 16.3% compared to 2009. However, the sector's expansion is also because of the Brazilian purchasing power, which has been rising.

Ext No Food War

War over food shortages has zero empirical supportJeremy Allouche 11 is currently a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade" Food PolicyVolume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8 Accessed via: Science Direct SciverseThe question of resource scarcity has led to many debates on whether scarcity (whether of food or water) will lead to conflict and war. The underlining reasoning behind most of these discourses over food and water wars comes from the Malthusian belief that there is an imbalance between the economic availability of natural resources and population growth since while food production grows linearly, population increases exponentially. Following this reasoning, neo-Malthusians claim that finite natural resources place a strict limit on the growth of human population and aggregate consumption; if these limits are exceeded,

social breakdown, conflict and wars result. Nonetheless, it seems that most empirical studies do not support any of these neo-

Malthusian arguments . Technological change and greater inputs of capital have dramatically increased labour productivity in agriculture . More generally, the neo- Malthusian view has suffered because during the last two centuries humankind has breached many resource barriers that seemed unchallengeable .