The Mauna Loa Story:Lessons for Long-Term Earth

Observations

Ralph F. Keeling

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

University of California, San Diego

The Mauna Loa CO2 Record

Charles D. Keeling (1928-2005)

Image credit: Publication of the National Oceanic & AtmosphericAdminstration (NOAA), NOAA Central Library;Photo Date: 1982 February; Photographer: Commander JohnBortniak, NOAA Corps (ret.)

Mauna Loa Record

Mauna Loa Record

Mauna Loa Record

Expected rise if 57% of fossil-fuel emissionsremained airborne

CO2 over past 420 thousand years

Present Level 378 ppm

Source: Petit et al., Nature 399, 429-236, 1999

CO2 over past 420 thousand years

Mauna Loa Record

CO2 over past 420 thousand years

Present Level 378 ppm

Source: Petit et al., Nature 399, 429-236, 1999

Present Level 378 ppm

Present Level 378 ppm

Business-as-usual projection

Decrease in atmospheric O2

Trends on methyl-chloroform Trends in methyl chloroform

Mauna Loa Record(fragmented)

Mauna Loa Record

Congressionally mandatedbudget cuts

force shutdown

NSF: warning on"routine monitoring"

NSF& NOAA coordinateterminate Scripps program

DOE rescuesprogram

"Mandatedconvergence"

w/ NOAA

DOE pulls out of globalcarbon research

• Genesis of measurements is often inuniversity setting.

• Ensures emphasis on data quality.

• Link to technology improvements.

• Link to training and teaching.

• Dissemination of science.

Lessons Learned

Challenges:

Other points:

• Doctrine against "routine monitoring".

• Shifting federal priorities.

• Better interagency coordination, notalways helpful.

• Normal peer-review is not incompatiblewith long-term programs.