Lessons From Mauna Loa - On the Value of Continuous Time Series

8/3/2019 Lessons From Mauna Loa - On the Value of Continuous Time Series

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"Lessons from Mauna Loa: On thevalue of continuous time series."



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IGY CO2 Program


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Mauna Loa and South Pole Records


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Keeling 1960 Tellus Publication


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Pales, J.C. and Keeling, C.D., 1965. Concentration ofAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Hawaii. Journal of

Geophysical Research, 70: 6053-6076.

Brown, C.W. and Keeling, C.D., 1965. Concentrationof Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Antarctica.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 70, 6077-6085

Revelle, R., Broecker, W., Craig, H., Keeling, C.D.and Smagorinsky, J., 1965. Atmospheric CarbonDioxide, Report of the Environmental PollutionPanel President's Advisory Committee, November1965. The White House, pp. 111-133.


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When I began to measure atmospheric carbondioxide and carbon in ocean water, just 50 years

ago this year, my work was praised for showingmore precisely than earlier studies how carbon wasdistributed in nature.

When I persisted in making measurements of thesame kind because I found the results interesting as

pure knowledge, I was supported by programmanagers of science - up to a point. This point wasreached in 1972, after 17 years of my studies.

Charles D. Keeling in 2005:

1On the acceptance of the Tyler Environmental Prize in 2005


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At this juncture in my career I was told explicitly thata line needed to be drawn between what part of my

work constituted basic research and what part wasnot basic research because it was routinemonitoring.

Charles D. Keeling quote:


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The repetitive measurements of my program, evenwhile I was attempting to improve them, I was told,

should be relinquished to a government agencyassigned responsibility for such measurements andeven for where they should be made.

Charles D. Keeling quote:


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The argument for terminating Scripps programhinged on two assumptions:

(1) The effort was dominated by the task ofmaking repetitive measurements.

(2) Repetitive measurements necessarily falloutside the scope of basic scientific research.

M L R d


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1960 1965 1970310

315

320

325

330

335

Year

CO

2Concentrat

ion(ppm)

Mauna Loa Record

M L R d


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1960 1965 1970310

315

320

325

330

335

Year

CO

2Concentrat

ion(ppm)

Mauna Loa Record

M L R d


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1960 1965 1970310

315

320

325

330

335

Year

CO

2Concentrat

ion(ppm)

Mauna Loa Record

M L R d


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1960 1965 1970310

315

320

325

330

335

Year

CO

2Concentrat

ion(ppm)

Mauna Loa Record


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The Airborne Fraction, as of 1970

From: Mans Impact on the Global Environment, 1970, report of the Study of CriticalEnvironmental Problems (SCEP).


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Addressing systematic errors

Manometry - 1959/1961, 1970, 1974.

Revision of estimated CO2 rise rate.

Carrier gas effect, discovered ~1972

Revision of absolute CO2

values of ~+3 ppm


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Mauna Loa

South Pole

El Nino Events

Discovery CO2 of El Nio connectionBacastow, R.B., 1976. Nature, 261pages 116-118.


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Changes in Seasonal Amplitude


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Elements of CO2 program

Time-series

Measurements

War onSystematic

Error

ScientificStudies

Mauna Loa Record


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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

CO2

Concentration(ppm)

Mauna Loa Record

Mauna Loa Record


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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

CO2

Concentration(ppm)

Trend expected from

fossil-fuel burning

Mauna Loa Record

Mauna Loa Record


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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

CO2

Concentration(ppm)

57% of trend

expected from

fossil-fuel burning

Mauna Loa Record


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A Few Lessons:

(1)For Mauna Loa record, point ofdiminishing scientific return hasnever been realized.

(2) Quality of record has hinged on inintimate involvement of scientists.

(3) Quality also hinges onredundancy.

(4) Normal measures of scientificimpact underestimate actualimportance.


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Citations to date:Watson and Crick (1953): 3085 citationsKeeling (1960): 60 citations


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Lessons From Mauna Loa - On the Value of Continuous Time Series