The global status of water security · The global status of water security Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford ... Ecosystem degradation and pollution Water-related opportunities:

Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth

The global status of water security

Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford


A risk-based approach to water security

• Focusses upon harmful outcomes (and beneficial opportunities) that people observe and care about

• Integrates: • reasons for concern about water: scarcity, floods, inadequate supply and

sanitation, impacts on the aquatic environment • dimensions of the water environment: surface water, groundwater, soil water,

grey water • across spatial scales

• Embraces variability, uncertainty and complexity

• Is forward looking, and connects directly to decision making: trading off benefits of risk reduction with costs and impacts


WATER-RELATED RISKS

WATER-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES

Water-related risks: Droughts and water scarcity Floods Inadequate water supply and

sanitation Ecosystem degradation and pollution Water-related opportunities: Food: increased agricultural

production Energy: hydropower, thermal power

cooling Transport: waterway navigation Ecosystems: enhancement of services


Metrics of risk

Hazard: Water-related phenomena with potential to cause harm

Exposure: The people or assets that are in harm’s way

Vulnerability: The susceptibility to incur loss, should a hazard materialize

Adaptation responses: The steps that have been taken to reduce risk

Impacts: The actual losses that have occurred (realised risk)

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Droughts and water scarcity

• A new global water balance model that incorporates the effects of runoff variability, storage, groundwater abstractions and water demand at a basin-country unit scale1

• Crop production and partial equilibrium economic modelling of the welfare effects of water insecurity for agriculture

US$94 billion per year, on average, of economic loss to food producers and

consumers

1Gaupp, F., Hall, J.W. and Dadson, S.J. The role of storage capacity in coping with intra- and inter-annual water variability in large river basins, Environmental Research Letters, in review.


Floods • GLOFRIS model of fluvial flood risk

• DIVA model of flood risk in coastal and estuarine areas

• 2010, 2030, 2050

US$120 billion of flood damage to property per year, on average

Flood damage at different return periods


US$260 billion per year of economic loss

Inadequate water supply and sanitation


US$260 billion per year of economic loss

Hutton, G. (2013) Global costs and benefits of reaching universal coverage of sanitation and drinking-water supply. Journal of Water and Health, 11(1): 1-12. WHO (2012) Global Costs And Benefits Of Drinking-Water Supply And Sanitation Interventions To Reach The MDG Target And Universal Coverage. World Health Organization Press, Geneva, Switzerland.

Inadequate water supply

and sanitation


Risks have not be monetized

Ecosystem degradation and

pollution

Top ten countries for risks to the aquatic environment


Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: Asia


Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: Africa


Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: North America and Europe


Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: South America


Trajectories of water-related risks

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Imp

act

of

risk

Inadequate water supply and sanitation

Droughts and water scarcity

Ecosystem degradation and pollution

River and coastal flooding


Documents

The global status of water security · The global status of water security Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford ... Ecosystem degradation and pollution Water-related opportunities: