Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
The global status of water security
Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
A risk-based approach to water security
• Focusses upon harmful outcomes (and beneficial opportunities) that people observe and care about
• Integrates: • reasons for concern about water: scarcity, floods, inadequate supply and
sanitation, impacts on the aquatic environment • dimensions of the water environment: surface water, groundwater, soil water,
grey water • across spatial scales
• Embraces variability, uncertainty and complexity
• Is forward looking, and connects directly to decision making: trading off benefits of risk reduction with costs and impacts
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
WATER-RELATED RISKS
WATER-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES
Water-related risks: Droughts and water scarcity Floods Inadequate water supply and
sanitation Ecosystem degradation and pollution Water-related opportunities: Food: increased agricultural
production Energy: hydropower, thermal power
cooling Transport: waterway navigation Ecosystems: enhancement of services
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Metrics of risk
Hazard: Water-related phenomena with potential to cause harm
Exposure: The people or assets that are in harm’s way
Vulnerability: The susceptibility to incur loss, should a hazard materialize
Adaptation responses: The steps that have been taken to reduce risk
Impacts: The actual losses that have occurred (realised risk)
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Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Droughts and water scarcity
• A new global water balance model that incorporates the effects of runoff variability, storage, groundwater abstractions and water demand at a basin-country unit scale1
• Crop production and partial equilibrium economic modelling of the welfare effects of water insecurity for agriculture
US$94 billion per year, on average, of economic loss to food producers and
consumers
1Gaupp, F., Hall, J.W. and Dadson, S.J. The role of storage capacity in coping with intra- and inter-annual water variability in large river basins, Environmental Research Letters, in review.
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Floods • GLOFRIS model of fluvial flood risk
• DIVA model of flood risk in coastal and estuarine areas
• 2010, 2030, 2050
US$120 billion of flood damage to property per year, on average
Flood damage at different return periods
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
US$260 billion per year of economic loss
Inadequate water supply and sanitation
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
US$260 billion per year of economic loss
Hutton, G. (2013) Global costs and benefits of reaching universal coverage of sanitation and drinking-water supply. Journal of Water and Health, 11(1): 1-12. WHO (2012) Global Costs And Benefits Of Drinking-Water Supply And Sanitation Interventions To Reach The MDG Target And Universal Coverage. World Health Organization Press, Geneva, Switzerland.
Inadequate water supply
and sanitation
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Risks have not be monetized
Ecosystem degradation and
pollution
Top ten countries for risks to the aquatic environment
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: Asia
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: Africa
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: North America and Europe
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Relative economic impacts of water insecurity: South America
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth
Trajectories of water-related risks
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Imp
act
of
risk
Inadequate water supply and sanitation
Droughts and water scarcity
Ecosystem degradation and pollution
River and coastal flooding
Global Dialogue on Water Security and Sustainable Growth