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TheRegionalSecurity

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

June8,2011

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UnderstandthekeyfactorsshapingthestrategicenvironmentinSouthEastAsiaand

theimplicationsforsecurityintheregion,

includingtheSouthChinaSea,terrorismand

insurgency;sealinesofcommunication;and

majorpowerengagement.

UnderstandthechallengesfacingIndonesia.

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KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic

EnvironmentinSout EastAsia

Globalfinancialandeconomiccrisis

Chinasmilitarymodernisation

USrenewedengagement

Arms rocurement

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%ShareofGlobalEconomicOutput

25

30

20

15

2015

5

10

0

Korea

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National GDP in Trillion USD 1990 and 2015

18

20

14

16

10

12

1990

6

82015

0

2

USA Japan China

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KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic

EnvironmentinSout EastAsia

Salience

of

maritime

domain

Transnationalissues

Everydaysecurityissues

Securit architecture

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a nan

Island

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SouthChinaSea

ChinaVietnam

Malaysia

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Major

Naval

Exercises2010

March

EarlyJulyLateJuly

November

YulinNaval

Base,Sanya

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BinhMinh02

Incident

ReedBank

Incident

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N nTr i i n l ri I

Terrorism

HumanSecurity

Piracy

Energysecurity

DrugTrafficking

Genderequality

Environmental Economicsecurity

everyday security issues

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ae a n ce sp nter groups, ocus on near enemy

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Terrorismdis ersednetworks

Religiousvigilante groups

Corruption

Stalledpoliticalreforms

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MajorPowerEngagement

USPACOMTheatre

Subregionalmultilateralism

FPDA

Engagement ReCAAP

Middle

powersHierarchical

operatingas

equals

. .

Leadership

ASEANled

multiExclusive

EastAsian

ASEANRegionalForum

ASEANPlusThree(China,

lateralismRegionalism

ADMMPlusJapan,SouthKorea)

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ASEANDefenceMinistersPlus8

JapanChina

South

Koreauss a

AustraliaIndia

Zealand

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ImplicationsforRegionalSecurity

APEC MinusCLM &

India

ARF Foreign

Ministers

ASEAN ChinaJa an SouthKorea

Plus8 Ministers

andUSA

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SoutheastAsia:Climatestress,

,

andchokepoints

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TheRegionalSecurity

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

June8,2011