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AsiaPacific

ProfessorCarlThayer

Presentation to Lemhannas

2November2009

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AsiaPacific

Region

seo na

Divided

states:

China

Taiwan

&

Korea

SouthEastAsia

Internalconflicts

Territorialdisputes

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America&

Europe

to

the

Asia

Pacific

Newstructure

of

international

decision

ma ingisemerging

U.S.moralauthorityandcapitalistmodelof

developmentunder

challenge

Chinasrisemostconse uential lobaltrend

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AsiaPacificwideSecurityIssues

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seo

na

an

n a

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China:U.S.DefenceSpending

14

ComparisonofDefenseExpenditures2005(US$bn):Chinas2006DefenseWhitePaper

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Y lin Naval

Base,Hainan

I lan

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Processingand

enrichment

Development

of

longer

range

ballistic

missiles PastproliferatorofWMDtechnology

Unpredictableroguebehaviour

Secessionissue

and

regime

stability

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Lon standin ethno

nationalistconflict

Mala Muslims

Sharpescalationin

violencesince

2004

Increasedjihadist

rhetoric

Internalaffair

non

interference

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Southern

Philippines

Jemmah

Islamiah/alQaeda

remnants

AbuSayyaf

Group,RSMRogue

MILF

commands

24

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Pressureon

ethnic

minority

cease

fire

groups

Imprisone pro emocracyactivists

AungSan

Suu

Kyi

Isnationalreconciliationpossible?

RoleofUS Chinaandotherexternal owers

ASEANandASEANCharter

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Internationalcriminal

syndicates

Piracy

Illicitdrug

production

and

smuggling

Peoplesmuggling

NaturalDisasters

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power

poseasecuritydilemmatoregionalstates

. .

WMDproliferationthemostseriousthreat

NorthKorea

leadership

secession

uncertainty

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SoutheastAsia

beset

by

severe

internal

Territorial

disputes

threaten

ASEAN

cohesion ASEANCharterandMyanmar

Whatt eofsecurit architecturebest

addressesinternal

conflict

and

its

spillover

effects?

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SecurityIssuesin

theAsia

Pacific

ProfessorCarlThayer

Presentation to Lemhannas

2November2009