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South Africa and Africa
Presented by:Dawie Roodt17 April 2007
2006 2007
M3 (end of year) 23.1% 14.7%
PSCE (adj. end of year) 27.6% 17.0%
CPIX (average) 4.6% 5.1%
Prime (full year) 12.5% 12.5%
Current Account: GDP -6.4% -5.7%
R/$ (end of year) 7.04 7.15
GDP (full year) 5.0% 5.3%
Economic Overview
Percentage of World GDP ‘04
2%
35%
2%2%
4%4%5%
7%
11%
1%
27%
Africa Rest of the World Brazil IndiaUK China France GermanyJapan Russia USA
Source: UNAIDS
4% of African area
23% of African GDP
22% of African Exports
20% of African Imports
GDP
Africa, South Africa, World GDP per Capita
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
$
Source: UN
Countries Compared to Provinces
Country and Province GDP 2004 ($ Bn)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
South AfricaEgypt
AlgeriaNigeria
GautengMorocco
KwaZulu-NatalWestern Cape
TunisiaAngolaSudan
Libyan ArabEastern CapeCote d'Ivoire
CameroonMpumalanga
KenyaLimpopo
North-WestFreestateTanzania
GhanaBotswana
EthiopiaUgandaSenegal
GabonDRC
MozambiqueMauritius
NamibiaZambia
Northern CapeMali
ZimbabweBurkina Faso
CongoBenin
MadagascarChad
GuineaSmallest 20
Source: UN
Africa Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996 - 2005
Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996 - 2005
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Countries
%
Equatorial Guinea
Zimbabwe
Average: 4.2
Source: World Bank, Africa Development Indicators, 2006
South Africa
Mozambique
Congo
Median: 3.6
Angola
Oil-exporters
Africa’s Divergent Growth Paths
Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996-2005, % of Population
20%16%
35% 29%
Little or no growth Slow growth Sustained growth Oil-exporting
Ave: 5.5
Ave: 3.4 Ave: 1.3
Ave: 7.4
Namibia (4.0)
Malawi (3.2)
South Africa (3.1)
Source: World Bank, Africa Development Indicators, 2006
Kenya (2.8)
DRC (0.0)
Zimbabwe (-2.4)
Mozambique (8.4)
Botswana (5.7)
Mauritius (4.9)
Eq. Guinea (20.9)
Angola (7.9)
Nigeria (4.0)
2007:Economic Freedom Index
Economic Freedom Per Category
70.8
68.8
79.8
79.3
78.8
50.0
60.0
50.0
45.0
58.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Business Freedom
Trade Freedom
Fiscal Freedom
Fdm fm Government
Monetary Freedom
Investment Freedom
Financial Freedom
Property Rights
Fdm fm Corruption
Labor Freedom
South Africa World Sub-Sahara Africa
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Economic Freedom Index, 2007
Economic Freedom Index, 2007
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Countries
Value
South Africa (’06)Hong Kong
Cuba
Average: 61
Median: 59
Source: The Heritage Foundation
South Africa (’07)
South Africa (’95)
Libya
Mauritius
Africa max and min
Economic Freedom Index- Africa, 2007
Africa Economic Freedom Index, 2007
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Countries
Value
Mauritius
Libya
Average: 54
Source: The Heritage Foundation
South Africa
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Socio-Economic Development
Close-up on South Africa
Category 2004 2006
Total population (000) 46.6mil 47.4mil
Annual population growth rate (%) 1.1% -0.4% ?
Population 0-14 years(%) 33% 32%
Rural population (%) 41
Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.8 2.7
Infant mortality rate (1,000) 53 60
Life expectancy at birth (years) 46 42
HIV rate (%) in adults (15-49 years) 15.6 20.0%
Poverty (% of pop. on less than $2 a day) 34
GDP per capita (PPP) US$ 11 192 12 760
GDP growth rate (%) 4.5% 5.0%
Children of primary school-age who are out-of-school (%) 7
Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators
Human Poverty Index (HPI): Developing Countries (HPI-1),2004
Human Poverty Index, Developing Countries (High value = High Poverty)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80 100Countries
Value
South Africa 2004
Cuba
Mali
Average: 30
Median: 27
Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
South Africa(1998)
Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 2004
Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 2004
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0 10 20 30 40 50Countries
Age
Sierra Leone
Average: 51
Source: Africa Development Indicators, World Bank, 2006
South Africa
Swaziland
Tunisia
Sustained Access to Improved Sanitation, latest 2000-04
Africa countries Access to Sanitation, 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Countries
% Pop
Chad
Average: 40
Source: Africa Development Indicators, World Bank, 2006
South Africa
Ethiopia
Mauritius
AIDS
People infected with Aids
20%
68%3%1%
4%
4%
Asia Africa Eastern Europe & Central Asia Caribbean Latin America High Income Countries
Source: UNAIDS
Eddjucation
Adult Literacy Rate (2005)
Adult Literacy Rate
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Countries
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)
South Africa: 82.2
Mali
Estonia
Average: 79.5
Median: 87.4
South Africa (1991): 82.1
Pupils-Teacher Ratio in Primary Education (Newest data available)
Pupils-Teacher Ratio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Countries
Ave
rag
e n
um
ber
of
pu
pils
Source: UNESCO
South Africa 2004
Central African Republic
Libya
Average: 26.7
Median: 23.0
South Africa (2006)
The Zim disaster
Development Data & Statistics
2004 World South Africa Zimbabwe
GDP (current US$, bn) 41 365.8 214.7 4.7
GNI per capita (current US$) 6 338.0 3 670.0 620.0
Life expectancy (years) 67.3 44.6 37.2
Population, total (millions) 6 363.2 45.5 12.9
Population growth (annual %) 1.2 -0.7 0.6
Surface area (000, sq km) 133 940.9 1 219.1 390.8
Source: World Bank
Zimbabwe: GDP
Zimbabwe: GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
%
Source: IMF
Zimbabwe: GDP
Zimbabwe GDP per capita, Constant Prices
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Zim $, '000
Source: IMF
Zimbabwe: Inflation
Zimbabwe: Inflation
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
%
Source: IMF and IMF forecasts
Zimbabwe GDP, Current Prices, Zim$
2000
Zim$361.4 bn2005
Zim$75,421.1 bn
+20,798.0%
Zimbabwe GDP, Current Prices, US$
2000
$8.1bn
2005
$4.5bnSource: IMF
-44.0%
Mistakes made in Africa Private Property Rights Regulated Prices Idolise Leaders Marketing Boards Nepotism Incompetence Corruption Poor Fiscal Discipline Poor Monetary Policy Unrealistic Projects
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Asset Allocation
Asset Allocation Reason
Equities Demand/Rand/International
Bonds Inflation/Supply/Interest Rates
Cash Unchanged Short Rates
Property Property Cycle
– Heavy Overweight
– Overweight
– Neutral
– Underweight
– Heavy Underweight
Local Equities, 2006Economic Sector MC EAA JSE Sector
Mining and Quarrying 32% 33% Mining, Platinum, Gold, Coal
Finance, prop and bus. serv 30% 25%Banks, Insurance, Life Ass, Media & Pht, IT, Property, Support Serv
Manufacturing 12% 18%Auto, Basic Ind, Beverages, Chem, Elect, IT Hard, Pharm & Bio, Steel & Other
Personal Service 6% 5%Cyc Serv, Health, Leisure Ent, Non-cyc Serv, Person Care
Transport, storage and comm. 6% 6% Telecomm, Transport
Trade, hotels and restaurants 6% 4%Cyc Cons, Food & Drug, Gen Retail, House Goods, Non-cyc Cons
Electricity, gas and water 4% 3% Oil & Gas
Agri, Forestry and Fishing 3% 1% Food Prod
Construction 2% 5% Const & Build
100% 100%
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