Coping with Complexity in Command and Control · Coping with Complexity in Command and Control Rudolph Oosthuizen Dr Jan Roodt •

Coping with Complexity in Command and Control

Rudolph Oosthuizen

Dr Jan Roodt

• Effective Command and Control (C2) is key to operations

• C2 has to operate in a increasingly complex environment:- War amongst the people.- Fog of war.- Communication technology.

• C2 system support human to solve “Wicked and Messy” problems:- Improve sense-making through effective HMI.- HMI need to support cognitive and social capabilities of humans.

• Cognitive System Engineering address cognitive and social aspects:- Cognitive Work Analysis.- Cynefin Framework.

Introduction

• Command and Control Defined• Complexity Defined• Command and Control as a Complex System• Cognitive system Engineering• Coping with Complexity in Command and Control• Conclusion

SCOPE

War

© CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za

Modern War


• Definition:- Problem solving within a military context to provide focus and

convergence of effort.- Assess environment and decide on course of action.

• Purpose- Bring all available information and all available assets to bear on an

objective

• Requirements- Vision of outcome- Understand high level intent and priorities- Assessment of environment- (Re-) Evaluation of situation

Command and Control

Behaviour

Command and Control Model

Command Control Sense-Making Execution Effects

Situation and InformationCollection and Processing

(Alberts 2006)

Environment

Socio-technical System

Hardware

Process People

Software

Tools, Equipment and Facilities

System

C2 System

Effector

Sensor

CognitiveSupport System

HMI

DecisionSupportSystem

Sense-MakingSystem

IssueOrders

SituationAssessment

CommsSystem

CommsSystem

Complex Environment

Delay

Operator

The Famous OODA Loop

Observe Orient

DecideAct

(Boyd, 1987)

The Famous OODA LoopDerive

Knowledge

Make DecisionsExecute

Sense & Process

Observe Orient

DecideAct

Common Situation Picture

Commander’s Intent

Situation Awareness

Battlespace Actions

Dynamic OODA LoopMission

Complete

Effect

Mission

Sense-Making Planning

Command Concept

Information Collection

MilitaryActivity

Decision/Order

(Brehmer, 2005)

Dynamic OODA LoopMission

Complete

Effect

Mission

Sense-Making Planning

Command Concept

Information Collection

MilitaryActivity

Decision/Order

Observe

Decide

Act

Orient

(Brehmer, 2005)

Situation Awareness

• “Perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, comprehension of their meaning and projection of their status into the near future” – Endsley.

• Situation Awareness exist in the mind of the operator.

• HMI is the interface between the operator and C2 system.

• Prerequisite for Decision Making.

• Require a careful analysis on what is required for Decision Making.

Situation Awareness


System CapabilityInterface Design

Stress and WorkloadComplexityAutomation

Performance of ActionsDecision

(Endsley, 2001)

Situation Awareness

Projectionof Future

StatusLevel 3

Comprehensionof CurrentSituation

Level 2

Perception of Elements in

Current SituationLevel 1

Goals & ObjectivesPreconditionsExpectations

AbilitiesExperience

Training

AutomaticityLong Term Memory Stores

Information Processing Mechanisms

Situation AwarenessSystem CapabilityInterface Design

Stress and WorkloadComplexityAutomation

Performance of ActionsDecision

(Endsley, 2001)

Situation Awareness

Projectionof Future

StatusLevel 3

Comprehensionof CurrentSituation

Level 2

Perception of Elements in

Current SituationLevel 1

Goals & ObjectivesPreconditionsExpectations

AbilitiesExperience

Training

AutomaticityLong Term Memory Stores

Information Processing Mechanisms

Sense Making & Decision Making

• C2 require decisions on adapting to changing environment.

• Complexity requires intuition and judgement from cognitive abilities and past experience.

• Align presentation of information with operator mental models.

• HMI of C2 system support sense-making.

• Identify when decisions are required.

Complexity

• Definition:- “a whole made up of complicated or interrelated parts”- “braided or entwined together”

• Complex System consist of many interconnected nonlinear elements that cause unpredictable behaviour.

• Behaviour is nondeterministic,despite apparent order.

• Display emergent behaviour

• Modelling help to understand.

Complexity

• Systems where people play a major part tends to be complex.

• Cognitive work is dynamic and context dependant in sociotechnical system.

• Systems need to support assimilationof information in uncertainty.

• Complexity science providetools and concepts.

• The Cynefin Framework (Snowden)assist in making sense ofcomplex situations.

Cynefin Framework

Complex Knowable

KnownChaos

Disorder

(Snowden)

Cynefin Framework

Pattern ManagementPerspective FiltersComplex Adaptive

Systems

Complex Knowable

KnownChaos

Analytical / ReductionistScenario PlanningSystems Thinking

Stability Focussed Intervention

Enactment ToolsCrises Management

Legitimate Best PracticeStandard Operating

ProceduresProcess Re-Engineering

Disorder

(Snowden)

Cynefin Framework

Pattern ManagementPerspective FiltersComplex Adaptive

Systems

Probe - Sense - Respond

Complex Knowable

KnownChaos

Analytical / ReductionistScenario PlanningSystems Thinking

Stability Focussed Intervention

Enactment ToolsCrises Management

Legitimate Best PracticeStandard Operating

ProceduresProcess Re-Engineering

Act - Sense - Respond

Sense - Analyse - Respond

Sense - Categorise -Respond

Disorder

(Snowden)

C2 as a Complex System

• Combat is complex (Sun Tzu & Clausewitz).

• C2 is a complex system:- Large problem space.- Social interaction with heterogeneous perspectives.- Distributed cognition and decision making.- Mediated interaction and dynamic decision-making.- Hazards and disturbances.

• C2 have to make sense of complex situations and manage risks.

• C2 is a sociotechnical system.



Complex Knowable

KnownChaos




Disorder

Observe

Orient Decide

Act



Complex Knowable

KnownChaos




Disorder

Start

Execute

Up to WW I



Complex Knowable

KnownChaos




Disorder

Start

Execute

Plan

WW II



Complex Knowable

KnownChaos




Disorder

Start

Execute

Plan

Analyse

Modern War



Complex Knowable

KnownChaos




Disorder

Start Execute

Plan

Analyse

MonitorModern War

Cognitive System Engineering

• Classic System Engineering:- Focus more on technical aspect.- Automate to reduce human error.- Lead to failures in complex and unforeseen situations.

• Humans are central to complex systems.

• C2 requires Decision Support Systems to assist sense-making and problem solving:- Display information, not raw data.- Provide ease of control.- Complement cognitive capability.- Support operators to cope with and adapt to unfamiliar situations.- Indicate when decisions need to be taken.


• Apply Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to develop “cognitive affordances” to support sense-making and decision-making.- Support analysis, design and evaluation of complex sociotechnical

systems.- Define required information and application context.- Define “ecological” HMI for effective man - machine operation.

• Support direct perception and manipulation.

• Support creativity and innovation in unanticipated events.

• Capture the knowledge and processes of experts to support novices though the system and HMI.



Work Domain Analysis

Work Organisation Analysis

Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources

Social Transactions

Cognitive HMI Requirements

Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies

Applied Cognitive Task Analysis

Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements

CollaborationCoordinationTransactions

Work StrategiesCognitive ProcessesCognitive StatesCognitive Competencies

Knowledge AuditsExpertiseDifficulties

Task DiagramsProcesses

Work SituationsWork Tasks



Complex - Orient Knowable - Decide

Known - ActChaos - Observe




Disorder

Skill BasedDetect Patterns

Complex Adaptive systemsMaking Sense

Knowledge BasedPerform AnalysisSystems Thinking

Planning

ExperienceTake action to trigger

patternCrises Management

Rule BasedFollow SOPs

Execute plan and Orders


Cognitive System EngineeringWork Domain

Analysis

Work Organisation Analysis

Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources

Social Transactions

Cognitive HMI Requirements

Applied Cognitive Task Analysis

Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements

CollaborationCoordinationTransactions

Work StrategiesCognitive ProcessesCognitive StatesCognitive Competencies

Task DiagramsProcesses

Work SituationsWork Tasks

Cynefin Framework

Knowledge AuditsExpertiseDifficulties

Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies

Conclusion

• Conducting military operations in modern and complex environment is difficult.

• C2 systems need to support commanders solve increasingly complex and dynamic problems.

• Be flexible to adapt to changes in environment and context.• Focus on Situation Awareness, Sense-making and Decision-

making.• Support human cognitive and social abilities in C2 system

design (HMI).• Apply CWA enhanced with Cynefin diagram to design, develop

and evaluate C2 systems.


Documents

Coping with Complexity in Command and Control · Coping with Complexity in Command and Control Rudolph Oosthuizen Dr Jan Roodt •