35
Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

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Page 1: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

Solid Strategy, Confident Execution

CSFB Chemical ConferenceSeptember 16, 2003

Kevin DeNicolaSenior Vice President and CFO

Page 2: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

2

Safe Harbor Language

Statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are just predictions or expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially, based on factors including but not limited to the cyclical nature of the chemical and refining industries; availability, cost and volatility of raw materials and utilities; governmental regulatory actions and political unrest; global economic conditions; industry production capacity and operating rates; the supply/demand balance for Lyondell's and its joint ventures' products; competitive products and pricing pressures; access to capital markets; and technological developments and other risk factors. For more detailed information about the factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially, please refer to Lyondell Chemical Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002, filed in March 2003, and Lyondell’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, filed in August 2003. Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures are provided at the end of this presentation.

Page 3: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

3

Lyondell Has Built a Balanced Portfolio

Lyondell

IC&D

LCR

Equistar

Commodity Leverage-- A leading North American producer of ethylene, propylene

and polyethylene-- Low cost position based on feedstock flexibility and scale

Growth & International Presence-- A leading global producer of PO and derivatives-- Process technology strength

Cash Generation-- Unique capability to refine heavy crude oils-- Contractually stable business; strong cash flow generator

($ MM)

Revenues EBITDALyondell

OwnershipIC&D $3,262 $410 100.0%Equistar 5,537 256 70.5LCR 3,392 362 58.75

2002

Page 4: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

4

Significant Integration Exists Among the Operating Entities and With Our Partners

Page 5: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

5

Leading Product Positions Create Significant Earnings Leverage

1 Source: CMAI, LYO capacities as of Jan 20032 Includes 1.5 billion pounds that represents Bayer’s share under the PO Joint Venture and 385 million pounds or

100% of the capacity of Nihon Oxirane3 Does not include refinery-grade material or production from the product flexibility unit at Equistar’s Channelview

facility.4 Based on 1¢/gal change

Inte

rmed

iate

C

hem

ica

ls a

nd

D

eriv

ati

ves

Eq

uis

tar

Product Annual Capacity 1Capacity Position

Propylene Oxide2 (lbs) 3.9 billion 1st in North America2nd in the world

Styrene Monomer (lbs) 3.7 billion 1st in North America3rd in the world

MTBE (bbl/day) 58,500 1st in North America1st in the world

Ethylene (lbs) 11.6 billion 2nd in North America5th in the world

Propylene (lbs) 5.0 billion 2nd in North America6 th in the world

Polyethylene (lbs) 5.7 billion 3 rd in North America4 th in the world

1

3

$20MM

$14MM

$ 94MM

$116MM

$50MM

$57MM

Pre-TaxLeverage(∆1¢/unit)

Page 6: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

6

The Lyondell and Equistar Products Serve a Broad Mix of End Users

Bldg & Const

Consumer

Electronics

Other

Transportation

Packaging

Textiles/Furnishings

Bldg & Const

ConsumerPackaging

Textiles/ Furnishings

Electronics

Other

Transportation

PROPYLENE OXIDEETHYLENE

Page 7: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

7

We Have Focused Our Efforts On Operational Excellence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

EQU LYO/EQU Polymers Polymers

Downtime Environment Quality

1998 - 2002% Improvement

ProductSimplification

%

Page 8: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

8

Industry Leading Safety PerformanceEnterprise Incident Rate (1)

1.18

0.99

0.8

0.52

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

199920002001

2002 2003 YTD

RIR

(1) Enterprise Recordable Incident Rate (RIR) data does not include Lyondell-Citgo Refining (LCR)American Chemistry Council Best 2002 = 0.37; Top Quartile 2002 = 1.0

0.37

Page 9: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

9

0102030405060708090

1998 2003 YTD

Lyondell Equistar

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Lyondell Equistar PO11 Spending

Strong Operations Lead to Reduced Capital Requirements

$MM

1999 2002

Capital Spending Days of Working Capital*

* Based on accounts receivable (including those sold), inventories and accounts payable as of 6/30, and second-quarter days of sales.

Page 10: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

10

A Brief Portfolio Review

IC&D

– Propylene Oxide (PO) and Derivatives

– Styrene

– MTBE

LCR

– Gasoline

– Heating oil

– Jet fuel

Equistar

– Ethylene

– Polyethylene

Page 11: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

11

The PO Industry Has Absorbed a Period of Capacity Additions

Source: SRI / Lyondell

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Bln

lbs

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Op

erat

ing

Rat

e

Lyondell/Partners Dow Shell/BASF Rest of World

Nam

epla

te C

apac

ity

Effective Operating Rate(96% On Stream Time)

Demand

Page 12: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

12

Global Styrene Supply/Demand Balances Are Relatively Tight

Source: CMAI 2003 World Styrene Analysis

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Ca

pa

cit

y (

Bil

lio

ns

Po

un

ds

)

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Op

erat

ing

Rat

e (%

)

92% Rate

Demand at 4.5% Growth

Page 13: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

13

600

500

400

300

200

100

MTBE is a Source of Premium Clean Octane to the 19-20 MMB/D Global Gasoline Market

Global Supply/Demand US Market Balance

MB/D

CA

U.S.

Non-U.S.

CARefinery/Olefins

U.S.Dehydro

DehydroNon -US

PO

DEMAND

CAPACITY

DEMAND SUPPLY

Refinery/Olefins

U.S.

Imports

U.S.Dehydro

PO

Source : Dewitt

Page 14: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

14

Component Premiums Above Gasoline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

J ul '0

1

Sep '0

1

Nov '0

1

J an '0

2

Mar '

02

May

'02

J ul '0

2

Sep '0

2

Nov '0

2

J an '0

3

Mar '

03

May

'03

J ul '0

3

Pre

miu

m a

bo

ve

Ga

so

lin

e (

¢/g

al)

MTBE

Alkylate

Source: Platts

Page 15: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

15

600

500

400

300

200

100

Steps Toward Increased IC&D Cash Flow

Complete PO-11

Capital Spend

Convert PO/SM

Purchases onProduction

1999PO / TDI

SMMargins

MTBEResolution

Sell-out at 1995PO / TDI / SM Margins

Potential Cash Improvement

From 1st Half, 2003 *

$ MM/Yr

* 1st Half EBITDA

Annualized = $200MM

1st Half

Page 16: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

16

LCR Important Cash Generator

Operating Reliability and Crude Deliveries Drive Performance

1 4Q01: Scheduled maintenance turnaround2 1Q03: Includes a $25MM write-off

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140CSA Spot Mkt EBITDA

MB/day $MM

21

Net Distribution To LYO, $MM 33 (7) 16 76 20 24 59 17 2 22 49 7 67 68

Page 17: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

17

Improved LCR Operations Result in Stronger Distributions

Recent Current

History Performance

Safety, Recordable Injury Rate 1.8 0.35

Unscheduled Unit Downtime, Days 400+ <50

Headcount, Fulltime Equivalents 2400 1500

Page 18: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

18

Equistar is a Leading Ethylene Producer

#2 in North America

Competitive position based on feedstock flexibility

1991 2002

Top 5 North America

Shell9%

Dow9%

Equistar15%Nova

8%

Union Carbide7%

Exxon7%

Dow/Carbide20%

ExxonMobil13%

ChevronPhillips10%

Nova 8%

40%

66%

Source: CMAI

Page 19: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

19

North American Supply/Demand Balance Is On Track To Improve Significantly

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Bil

lio

n P

ou

nd

s

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Op

erat

ing

Rat

e

Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance – North America

Source: CMAI / Equistar (September/2003)

Nam

epla

te C

apac

ity

N. American Effective Operating Rate(96% On-Stream Time)

N. America Demand

Rest of World

N. America

Page 20: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

20

5000

15000

25000

35000

45000

55000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

GDP %AGR Ethylene consumption

Ethylene Demand Growth has Historically Accelerated out of a Downturn

MM Lbs % Change GDP

Source: DRI & ChemData

Ethylene Demand 1971-2004 – United States

9%

13%

6%

Page 21: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

21

Middle Eastern Capacity is Required to Meet Global Demand

Source: CMAI (August 2003)

Ethylene Cumulative Capacity Increase vs. Demand(Assumes 50% of 2005+ Middle East Projects Delayed)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(Billio

n P

ou

nd

s)

Change in Rest of the Global Nameplate Capacity Change in Non-Speculative Middle East CapacityChange in Speculative Middle East Capacity Cumulative Change in Demand @ 4.4%Cumulative Change in Demand @ 5.4% Cumulative Change in Demand @ 3.4%

Page 22: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

22

Ethane - Light Naphtha Cost of Ethylene Spread

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

¢/lb

eth

yle

ne Average

Liquid Cracking Variable Cost Advantage vs. NGL

Source: ChemData

Equistar Capability

NGL

37%

Liquid

63%

N. American Industry

(ex. Equistar)

NGL

78%

Liquid

22%

Liquid Cracking Provides an Advantage vs. Ethane Raw Materials

Source: CMAI and Lyondell

20

03

YT

D

Page 23: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

23

Cost Advantage of Liquid Feedstock Versus Ethane: Equistar Impact - 1¢/lb equals $70MM/yr

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Jul Jan Jul

Liquid Variable Cost AdvantageCents/lb

2002 2003

Source : ChemData

COE – Cost of ethylene production

Page 24: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

24

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

PG Styrene HDPE

Relative Raw Material Margin Range, 1994-2002100 = Period Average

•PG: U.S. Industrial Grade Propylene Glycol minus 0.63 x Chem Grade Propylene, both as reported by Chem Data•Styrene: US Net Industry Average Styrene Price minus 0.28 x North America ethylene Net Transaction Price, minus 0.105 x North America Contract Benzene, all as reported by CMAI•HDPE: North America HDPE Domestic Market Contract Injection Molding price - Ethylene product cash cost (Weighted Average Feed) as reported by CMAI

The Chemical Product Chains All Offer Upside in a Recovery

Page 25: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

25

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2002 1999/2000Margins¹

1995Margins¹

1988Margins¹

LCR IC&D Equistar

Enterprise Earnings Capability Far Exceeds Recent Trough Results

Cycle EBITDA Potential

1 Chem Data/CMAI industry margins conditions for IC&D and Equistar products (ex. MTBE) applied to current capacities and ownership, LCR 2002 EBITDA, includes PO-11

Note: Assumes current capital structure; 160MM shares

($MM)

$7.45 / share

$1.35 / share

PeakRecession / Trough

Pre-Recession

2002 Proportional Interest,

Dividends & Capital

Page 26: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

26

Our Financial Strategy is Focused and Unchanged

Maintain Sufficient Liquidity

Repay Debt

Page 27: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

27

We Have Maintained Significant Liquidity

1 – represents the total commitment and has not been reduced by amounts committed against letters of credit:

(12/30/02: LYO-$49MM, Equ-$16MM)

(6/30/03: LYO-$53MM, Equ-$17MM)

$497MM$677MM $477MM$680MM Total Liquidity

$354MM$350MM $450MM$350MMRevolver 1

$143MM$327MM $27MM $330MMCash & ST Investments

EquistarLyondell Equistar

Lyondell

06/30/200312/31/2002

Page 28: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

28

We Have Actively Managed Our Maturity Profile

Debt Maturities

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2003 2004 2005 2006

Lyondell Equistar($MM)

Pre-Payable Debt

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

2003 2004 2005 2006

Lyondell Equistar($MM)

Page 29: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

29

1 Capitalization = debt + book value of equity + minority interest Based on 160 MM shares outstanding

De-leveraging Will Benefit All Stakeholders

Impact of Lyondell debt reduction at constant capitalization1:

Debt Reduction

$1B $2B

Debt to capitalization 54% 36%

Avoided interest expense $100MM/Yr $200MM/Yr

Earnings improvement 40¢/share 80¢/share

Share price improvement atconstant capitalization $6/share $12/share

Page 30: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

30

There are Striking Similarities Between 1993 and 2003

Coming out of the “U.S. recession of 1991”

1992 and 1993 confirmed the worse fears of pessimists

U.S. hoping to sustain economic growth of late 1993

Europe headed to moderate economic recovery

Japan waiting for some sign of recovery

Uncertainty and apprehension for 1994 and 1995…the most dominant emotions in light olefins

Iraq will comply with UN edict and…export crude

Reinvestment reached in the U.S. by the end of decade

Source: 1993 World Light Olefins Analysis, CMAI

1991-1997 or 2001-2007?

Page 31: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

31

Interpretations of the Global Situation Created Forecasts Very Similar to Those Being Made Today

Demand forecasts

• Annual rate of 4.9% per year 1992-1998 period

• Worldwide growth…during 1993 to 2%

• New light olefins in Asia/Pacific and Africa/Middle East will severely impact exports

Source: 1993 World Light Olefins Analysis, CMAI

1991-1997 or 2001-2007?

Operating rate forecasts

• Slowly improve from 85% in 1993 to 89% in 1998

• Between 1993 and 1997…17.9 MM tons capacity will be added to 1993 total

• In the U.S. between 1990 and 1992 three new world scale plants

Page 32: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

32

External Factors Can Quickly Alter the Outlook and Results Within the Ethylene Industry

Source: World Light Olefins Analysis, CMAI

Forecast Versus Actual Margins, ¢/lb

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Forecast 8.9 8.0 8.5 10.0 12.0

Actual 14.3 18.9 10.4 16.2 11.4

Actual Outcome: Ethylene margins peaked in 1994/1995;Under the current Equistar structure, 1994-1999 margins/conditions would equate to approximately $1B of EBITDA annually.

Page 33: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

33

Six Months

Ended

June 30,

2003 2002 2001

Lyondell net loss (181)$ (148)$ (150)$ Add: Benefit from income tax (94) (58) (76)

Interest expense, net 182 373 369 Depreciation and amortization 118 244 254 Loss from equity investment in Equistar 132 117 77 Income from equity investment in LCR (56) (135) (129) Loss from other equity investments - 5 12 Restructuring charges (credits) (a) - (3) 63 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt, net of tax - 15 5

Lyondell EBITDA excluding restructuring charges (credits) (b) 101$ 410$ 425$

Equistar net loss (195)$ (1,299)$ (283)$ Add: Cumulative effect of accounting change - 1,053 -

Depreciation and amortization 154 298 319 Interest expense, net 102 204 189 Facility closing costs (c) - - 22 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt, net of tax - - 3

Equistar EBITDA 61$ 256$ 250$

Proportionate Share - % varies (d) 43$ 122$ 103$

LCR net income 86$ 213$ 203$ Add: Depreciation and amortization 57 116 108

Interest expense, net 19 32 51 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt - 1 2

LCR EBITDA 162$ 362$ 364$

Proportionate Share - 58.75% 95$ 213$ 214$

Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments - EBITDA Lyondell EBITDA excluding restructuring charges (credits) 101$ 410$ 425$ Lyondell share of Equistar EBITDA (d) 43 122 103 58.75% of LCR EBITDA 95 213 214 75% of LMC EBITDA through April 30, 2002 - (3) (3)

Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments 239$ 742$ 738$

________(a) Restructuring charges (credits) related to shutdown of Lyondell's ADI business.

(b) Annualized EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2003 is approximately $200 million.

(c) Closing costs related to Equistar's Port Arthur, Texas facility.

(d) Lyondell had a 41% interest in Equistar through August 22, 2002 and 70.5% thereafter.

For the twelve months ended

December 31,

Lyondell Chemical CompanyReconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA

(Millions of dollars)

Page 34: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

34

Equistar Lyondell

Working Capital as of June 30, 2003: a

Accounts Receivable 559$ 381$

Inventories 478 366

Accounts Payable (482) (396)

Total 555 351

Add: Accounts Receivable Sold 100 81

Adjusted Working Capital 655$ 432$

Days of Working Capital:Second Quarter Sales Revenue 1,597$ 913$

Days in Quarter 91 91

Sales per Day $17.5 $10.0

Days of Working Capital b 37 43

a - Defined as the major controllable components of working capital - receivables, inventories and payables.b - Days of working capital are calculated as adjusted working capital divided by sales per day.

(Millions of dollars)

Lyondell Chemical CompanyDays of Working Capital

Reconciliation

Page 35: Solid Strategy, Confident Execution CSFB Chemical Conference September 16, 2003 Kevin DeNicola Senior Vice President and CFO

35

1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1Q 2001 2Q 2001 3Q 2001 (a) 4Q 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 (b) Q1 2003 Q2 2003

Net income (loss) 22$ (22)$ 66$ 62$ 42$ 66$ 78$ 17$ 41$ 63$ 50$ 59$ 28$ 58$

Add: Depreciation and amortization 26 30 28 28 28 27 26 27 29 30 28 29 28 29

Interest expense, net 12 16 16 17 16 15 10 10 8 7 8 9 10 9

LCR EBITDA 60$ 24$ 110$ 107$ 86$ 108$ 114$ 54$ 78$ 100$ 86$ 97$ 66$ 96$

________(a) EBITDA for LCR for the three months ended September 30, 2001 was originally reported as $116 million and was restated to include extraordinary charges

related to early debt retirement, currently reflected in other expense, net.

(b) EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2002 was originally reported as $98 million and was restated to include extraordinary charges related to early debt retirement, currently reflected in other expense, net.

Lyondell Chemical CompanyReconciliation of LCR Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA

(Millions of dollars)