scan@ifr vol 9 no 07 Jul 2012 Uittreksels uit tydskrifte en verslae van

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i

It seems that, above a minimum threshold, the amount

spent by companies on R&D is less important than the

way the money is spent. In this regard strategic align-

ment – the degree to which innovation efforts are driv-

en by and emerge from the overall corporate strategy

and culture – is more important for the bottom line.

In China some labour-intensive businesses are mov-

ing from the coastal regions to inland China and even

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam,

where costs are lower. There are even signs of high-

tech production returning to the USA because of rising

labour costs in Asia.

In South Africa the DTI’s intention to create special

economic zones (SEZs) will face potential pitfalls such

as consuming more investment in infrastructure, sub-

sidies and concessions that they are able to produce.

Africa is one of the emerging regions being targeted

by Airbus Military for sales of its aircraft. Brazilian min-

ing company Vale has investments worth $7.7b in pro-

jects in nine Africa countries.

Although still the largest economy in Africa, South Af-

rica is not necessarily the only ‘gateway’ to the conti-

nent. The country’s economic growth rate is one of the

lowest in Africa, taxes are high, education poor, and

growth in real wages outstrips productivity in most sec-

tors.

The gap between Africa’s actual risk and its perceived

risk offers meaningful opportunities for those willing to

invest in the continent, home to six of the 10 fastest-

growing economies since 2000. Almost a third of 66

private equity deals in sub-Saharan Africa in 2011

were done in East Africa.

The United Nations claims that the world can feed it-

self with less food production than previously forecast

if it turns to sustainable farming, reduces waste and

cubs excessive consumption.

The growth in China’s demand for gold may stagnate

this year as falling prices deter investors and slower

economic growth curbs sales.

In South Africa domestic tourism accounts for three-

quarters of the country’s total tourism value. The SA

Domestic Tourism Growth Strategy has targeted 54m

domestic trips by 2020, as well as the creation of

255 000 jobs.

The City of Johannesburg intends spending over

R100b on economic and social infrastructure over the

next 10 years, with a focus on the upgrading of water

reticulation systems, stormwater systems, electricity

sub-stations, road infrastructure network, and waste

treatment plants.

Since the 1970s the sea ice in the Arctic has retreated

by around 12% each decade, primarily as a result of

global warming. The Arctic is warming roughly twice

as fast as the rest of the planet.

At the recently held Oil and Gas 2012 conference it

was stated that ‘in the context of the current nature of

the oil and gas industry and the world crude oil price,

Africa continued to be a “great frontier for the future”’.

A report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa

argues that Africa has so far failed to benefit much

from the commodity price boom, but opportunities

were still there. According to Deloitte & Touche SA,

the global oil and gas industry had undergone a num-

ber of major developments in the recent past, which

would affect the industry significantly going forward.

‘Green growth’ has become the new mantra for busi-

ness people and policymakers. The core idea of

‘green growth’ is that the environment is another kind

of capital. It makes a measurable contribution to out-

put and should be accounted for, invested in, exploited

efficiently and (ideally) increased in value. The adop-

tion of the concept of a ‘green economy’ was to have

been the big story out of Rio+20. But the definition of a

‘green economy’ has been left for each country to de-

cide and comes with several compromises. The main

points of the Rio+20 agreement are discussed.

The Geo5 report of UNEP warns that the earth’s envi-

ronmental systems ‘are being pushed towards their bi-

ophysical limits’, beyond which loom sudden, irre-

versible and potentially catastrophic changes. Alt-

hough planetary boundaries provide a useful way of

thinking about environmental change, the concept has

numerous drawbacks as discussed in The Economist.

The pros and cons of hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’

in America and South Africa are discussed.

New research has found that Africa has large reserves

of groundwater. Although groundwater is no panacea

for Africa’s water shortages, it could form an important

part of a strategy to cope with the sharp increase in

demand for water expected as the continent’s popula-

EDITORIAL

ii

tion increases. Projections indicate that South Africa

will experience a 17% gap between water supply and

demand by 2030. It is believed that climate change will

reduce the availability of water in the main mining are-

as in the western parts of South Africa. A new global

online tool was recently launched that enables com-

panies and investors to address their water-related

risks.

Commentator Moeletsi Mbeki says the ANC will not

rule South Africa two or three decades from now, add-

ing that politically South Africa is quite unstable.

The Spear saga highlights the fact that the power in

South Africa does not reside only in the state of the

ruling party, but in a multiplicity of points, including

business, civil society, academia and the media.

According to the Happy Planet Index, South Africa is

one of the 10 unhappiest countries in the world. De-

mography, the science of populations, is once more

centre-stage. However, the focus of demographers

has switched from the overall size of populations to

their composition, eg, age structure.

A new higher education ranking focuses on evaluating

quality by countries as a whole, as opposed to specific

academic institutions.

The Economist argues that the health care demands

of the 21st century will require ‘an impossible number

of doctors’. In most countries the demand for health

care is rising faster than the supply of doctors. World-

wide maternal mortality has declined by almost 50%

over the past two decades.

According to the UN, the global number of illicit drug

users is likely to grow by 25% between now and 2050,

with the bulk of the increase expected to take place

among the rapidly growing urban populations of de-

veloping countries.

The latest African Economic Outlook warns that Afri-

cans aged 15-24 currently comprise 60% of the conti-

nent’s unemployed, with 22m of the 40m unemployed

youths having abandoned the search for a job. In

South Africa the youth unemployment rate stood at

48% in 2009.

By signing a memorandum of understanding with Ab-

sa, government has sent out a signal that it is serious

about working with the private sector to compete more

effectively in the global economy. Areas of cooperation

include technology commercialisation, renewable en-

ergy technologies and ICT.

The expansion of South Africa’s nuclear power indus-

try would boost job creation, particularly in the uranium

mining and construction sectors.

The Third Industrial Revolution is under way as manu-

facturing is going digital and remarkable technologies

are converging, eg, clever software, novel materials,

more dexterous robots, new processes (such as 3D

printing) and a range of web-based services.

iii

CORPORATE ENVIRONMENT

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

12-0444 Innovation and strategy by MM Gobble 1 CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS

12-0445 Understanding a company’s social impact is crucial to sustainability by A Henriques 1

COMPETITION

12-0446 Comparative advantage – The boomerang effect 2

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMIC POLICY

12-0447 SA – Special economic zones 3 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

12-0448 Ankara revisits old friends by N Ford 4 12-0449 Airbus has the African market in its sights 4 12-0450 Into Africa by K Campbell 5 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GDP

12-0451 The gateway to Africa? 5 12-0452 Gap between Africa’s perceived and actual

risks spells opportunity 6 12-0453 Private equity outlook optimistic in East

Africa 6 12-0454 Launch of ‘inclusive’ wealth index reveals

GDP limitations by P Corea 6 ECONOMIC SECTORS Agriculture

12-0455 World can feed more people more efficiently – FAO 7

Mining

12-0456 More state intervention needed in mining - Motlanthe 7

12-0457 Attitude shift? 7 Transport

12-0458 Coherent planning by S Burger 8 Other services

12-0459 Domestic dawn by J McKenzie 9 INCOME DISTRIBUTION

12-0460 Two decades, widening gaps by E Applegate 10

INFRASTRUCTURE

12-0461 Joburg plans to invest R100bn in infrastructure by N Odendaal 10

12-0462 SA immigration may be eased to attract engineers for infrastructure push 10

STOCK MARKET

12-0463 Africa to be next boomtown for private equity 11

FOREIGN INVESTMENT

12-0464 Key destination by N Greve 11 12-0465 China unlikely to be big African coal

investor by I Esterhuyzen 12

FUTURES RESEARCH

SCENARIOS

12-0466 Mining trends – Shifting scenarios by H Lazenby 12

PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT

CLIMATE

12-0467 The vanishing north 13 ENERGY RESOURCES

12-0468 New scramble by J McKenzie 14 12-0469 Macro changes by J McKenzie 15 12-0470 The future looks brighter for renewable

energy in SA 15 12-0471 African mining – missed opportunity by

H Lazenby 16 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

12-0472 Shoots, greens and leaves 16 12-0473 The global environment - Boundary

conditions 18 12-0474 Rio+20 – The the “landscape approach 19 12-0475 Rio+20 – Battles won and lost 20 12-0476 Factbox – Main points in Rio+20

agreement by N Chestney 21 12-0477 U.N. report warns environment is at

tipping point 22 MINERAL RESOURCES

12-0478 Fracking great 22 12-0479 Hydraulic fracturing – Adding to the

debate 23 WATER

12-0480 Africa sitting on sea of groundwater reserves 23

12-0481 The uncertain future of water by R Jansen van Vuuren 24

12-0482 Water worries by N Buthelezi 24 12-0483 Mining major developing ten-year water

strategy by N Greve 25 12-0484 Online tool helps companies address

water risks 25 12-0485 Squeezing water out of fog by P Kotzé 26

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

DOMESTIC POLITICAL AFFAIRS South Africa

12-0486 ANC will lose power – Moeletsi Mbeki 26 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Other countries

12-0487 Banyan - An absence of architecture 26

C O N T E N T S

iv

POLITICAL BEHAVIOUR

12-0488 A brand to stand behind by J Yemma 27 12-0489 Great lessons in leadership 27 12-0490 Why Congress is gridlocked 28 12-0491 SA should not be negotiating trade pact

with India by D MacKay 28 12-0492 Reflections on The Spear saga

by A Matshiqi 28 12-0493 The science of righteousness by

M Shermer 29

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT

12-0494 SA one of 10 unhappiest countries 30 DEMOGRAPHY

12-0495 Demography – A new science of population 30

Migration

12-0496 Brain drain to brain gain – Africa’s returning diaspora 30

EDUCATION

12-0497 Whose schools rule? by W Eulich 31 HEALTH Disease

12-0498 Incurable TB? 32 Care

12-0499 Squeezing out the doctor 32 Reproduction

12-0500 Safer pregnancies by H LaFranchi 33

LABOUR

Trade unions

12-0501 Sea change by M Creamer 33 SOCIAL PROBLEMS

Drug abuse

12-0502 Global illicit drug users to rise 25% by 2050, says UN by A Travis 33

Unemployment

12-0503 Urgent priority by T Creamer 34

TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGY

12-0504 DST and Absa to collaborate on technology 35

TECHNOLOGY POLICY

12-0505 Virtual value by S Burger 35 SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGIES Bio-technologies

12-0506 Cancer combatant by M Wait 36 Energy technologies

12-0507 Nuclear energy – Jobs fillip by I Esterhuizen 37

Information/communication technologies

12-0508 The third industrial revolution 37 12-0509 Heavenly spin-off by N Odendaal 39 Space technologies

12-0510 Planet plunder by M Creamer 39

1

Corporate Environment

12-0444

INNOVATION AND STRATEGY by MM Gob-

ble. Research-Technology Management, Vol 55

(3), May 2012:63-65.

‘… As Booz Allen Hamilton vice president Barry Jaruzelski put it in a 2008 interview with Amy Bernstein, "Spend more on R&D and growth, and differentiation and other good things will come." What they found, though, and what they've continued to find year after year, is that there is no significant relationship between R&D spending and corporate financial perfor-mance. As long as a company is not at the bot-tom with regard to R&D spending, it makes no difference whether it's the biggest spender in the industry or merely a middling spender. In other words, above a minimum threshold, "how much a company spends is less important than how it spends that money." How, then, does in-novation contribute to the bottom line? …’

‘The answer, 2010's and 2011's Global Inno-vation 1000 results suggest, seems to be stra-tegic alignment – the degree to which innova-tion efforts are driven by and emerge from the overall corporate strategy and the corporate cul-ture. The problem of culture, and particularly how one creates and sustains an innovation culture, is a perennial concern for R&D leaders. But these results suggest that innovation man-agers should pay closer attention to the overall corporate strategy, as well – both because of its influence on culture and because of its impor-tance in its own right.’

‘… And the effort becomes even more complicated when conversations about strate-gy become muddled with nebulous ideas about vision and mission. … Clearly, innovation is a key part of any journey to the future, but how does one plan around a dream, even an ambi-tious and compelling one? As Langdon Morris points out in The Innovation Master Plan, a strategy is a plan for achieving defined goals, shaped by an organizing principle that pro-vides "a way to understand the broader pat-terns of change, and to locate our own goals in conjunction with the broader view". …. Innova-tion, says Morris, is a tool of strategy – it cre-ates the future that strategy envisions. Innova-tors, then, must understand the strategy and be able to see how their work fits within the larger corporate strategy. They must under-stand which innovations fit the strategy and which don't. This isn't easy; even master inno-vators don't always get it right. Remember the Lisa? Google Wave?’

‘One of the keys is a clear, actionable cor-porate strategy and a thorough understanding of how and where innovation fits in that strate-gy. …’

‘In Porter's world, the linchpin of successful competition is differentiation, but he under-stands differentiation quite broadly. Differentia-tion doesn't just mean distinguishing your pro-duct from others, although it may include that. Rather, differentiation is all of the things a com-pany does to define its market, its customer base, and its product in a way that gives it some competitive advantage – that allows it to capture value in a unique way that is difficult for other companies to copy. …’

‘A key part of identifying and locking in that sustainable advantage is the value chain, the full sequence of activities required to design, produce, sell, and deliver the product. The concept of the value chain has obvious impli-cations in an increasingly connected world; the success of a company's strategy depends on the strength and profitability of its relationships with suppliers, customers, and collaborators. Ron Adner recognizes this reality in The Wide Lens, which explores how "winning requires ... ensuring that a host of partners – some visible, some hidden – deliver on their promises, too." ’ …

‘… In the end, the lesson for innovators is that they need to understand strategy – both to see how innovation fits in the company strategy and to help shape that strategy so that the company can fully capture the value of its inno-vation activities.’ [25%]

12-0445

UNDERSTANDING A COMPANY’S SOCIAL

IMPACT IS CRUCIAL TO SUSTAINABILITY

by A Henriques. Guardian.co.uk, http://www.guar

dian.co.uk/sustainable-business/understanding-

social-impact-business-sustainability, 19 Jun

2012.

‘The social impact of a business is easy to identify but difficult to measure, however under-standing the effects a company has on society and the environment is vital to achieving sus-tainability’

‘Sustainability has three dimensions: envi-ronmental, economic and social which are all in-ter-linked. For example, the protection of natural systems requires good social conditions and is unlikely to happen during war.’

‘Similarly the survival of society needs a sup-portive natural environment, not one ravaged by climate change. But neither will happen unless we manage scarce resources at our disposal

2

more successfully in both financial and envi-ronmental terms. And in terms of social impact.’

‘Many companies have social goals: they do something that others in society find useful and are willing to pay for. But what is 'social'? How do we factor the social impact of companies and their contribution to sustainability?’

‘Companies also impact on communities. Particularly those that have a significant direct impact on the natural environment, such as min-ing or oil extraction, agriculture or heavy manu-facturing. It matters greatly to those living near their operations how they are carried out and what degree of care is taken over impacts on health for example.’

‘Some companies, particularly mining and oil firms, may even create communities in order to operate. The living conditions of such workers are an inescapable part of the social responsi-bility of the company. The social impacts of re-moving communities or clearing land in order to operate are even more powerful. So the social impact of a large dam or other major infrastruc-ture projects may be profound. At its worst, it can destroy lives; at best it will destroy a way of life.’

‘Human rights and labour relations also mat-ter. Companies of all kinds have a role to play in ensuring that there is no discrimination in the way their staff are managed, promoted and trained, and that they have decent conditions of work.’

‘All these impacts are much easier to identify than measure. Measurement of social impact is hard because to reduce human experience to numbers is to fail to capture some part of it. This does not mean that any kind of measurement is useless. But it does mean that complacent reli-ance on a set of numbers is bound to seem un-satisfactory.’

‘There are a number of important social im-pacts that are much easier to measure, but about which companies are reluctant to be transparent. One of these is tax. The payment of tax is one of the most important contributions to society that most companies make. It is also one that they can be most secretive about – mainly because the countries in which they add value through their operations often bear little relationship to those where they are liable for taxes.’

‘However the social impacts of companies go far beyond even the kinds of substantive consequences listed above. At its broadest, so-cial impact includes anything that affects com-pany-stakeholder relationships: from how much and how reliably suppliers are paid (think su-permarkets), to how a product affects lives (think Facebook). From how small shareholders may be treated to the impact of alcohol on health and communities.’

‘Nevertheless companies don't run our lives. Or do they? One of the stakeholder relation-ships that companies cultivate with great care is that with government and the state. This can be legal or illegal. In countries where corruption is most prevalent, the distortion of economic life has some of the most devastating social conse-quences possible.’

‘But where it is legal, and takes the form of lobbying, it raises questions about the role of companies in society. In a democracy, one would expect that people, rather than compa-nies, should be the key influence on govern-ment. Yet the very phrase 'corporate citizenship' challenges that assumption. Changing the rules by which society operates leverages social im-pact beyond measure.’ … [95%]

12-0446

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE – THE BOOM-

ERANG EFFECT. Economist, The, Vol 403

(8781), Special Report, 21 Apr 2012:7-10.

‘As Chinese wages rise, some production is moving back to the rich world’

‘Thirty years ago Shenzhen was little more

than a village, abutting the border of Hong Kong’s New Territories. When China’s first Special Economic Zone was established in the early 1980s, workshops started to grow and glistening skyscrapers began to rise up. Its population is now around 12m, including per-haps 6m migrant workers. They often live in dormitories close to the factories that have helped make this city one of the richest in Chi-na.’ …

‘Countries that make things more cheaply than others are often accused of running sweat-shops, and labour in China was undoubtedly cheap: that was why Hong Kong’s clothing and toy factories moved to the mainland. But with increasing prosperity Chinese workers want more pay, shorter hours and more benefits, just as Taiwanese, Japanese and South Korean workers did before them. Labour costs in China have recently been growing by around 20% a year.’

‘Some labour-intensive businesses are now moving from the coastal regions to inland Chi-na, where costs are lower, though the infra-structure may not be up to the mark. A number of firms, especially those making clothes and shoes, have upped sticks and moved to Bang-ladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam. Ni-ke, for instance, used to make most of its train-ers in China, but many of its big suppliers have moved elsewhere, and in 2010 Vietnam be-

3

came the company’s biggest production base worldwide. …’

‘Yet for some manufacturers low wage costs are becoming less important because la-bour represents only a small part of the overall cost of making and selling their products. Re-searchers for the Personal Computing Industry Centre at the University of California, Irvine, took apart an iPad and worked out where all the various bits inside came from and what it had cost to make and assemble them …. They found that a 16-gigabyte 2010 iPad priced at $499 contained $154-worth of materials and parts from American, Japanese, South Korean and European suppliers (Apple has more than 150 suppliers in all, many of which also make or finish their parts in China). The researchers estimated the total worldwide labour costs for the iPad at $33, of which China’s share was just $8. Apple is constantly tweaking its prod-ucts so the figures shift all the time, but not by much.’

‘If China accounts for such a small share of the overall labour costs, surely Apple could af-ford to make iPads in America? It turns out that low wages are not the only attraction. What Shenzhen has to offer on top is 30 years’ expe-rience of producing electronics. It has a network of firms with sophisticated supply chains, mul-tiple design and engineering skills, intimate knowledge of their production processes and the willingness to leap into action if asked to scale up production.’

‘What Shenzhen provides, in other words, is a successful industrial cluster. It works for Apple because many of the electronic parts it uses are commodities. The real innovation lies in designing the product and creating smart software, which is the speciality of another successful cluster, in Silicon Valley, where Ap-ple is based.’ …

‘Yet some jobs are returning to developed countries. With Chinese wage costs rising, America’s productivity improvements can help tip the balance, especially when American firms invest in more automation. Yet robots can be used anywhere to reduce labour costs. …’

‘Again, wage costs are not the only consi-deration in transferring production from China back to America. Chesapeake Bay Candle used to ship its scented candles for the Ameri-can market from China, and then from Vietnam when America raised import tariffs on Chinese-made candles. In June 2011 the company opened a highly automated factory near its base in Maryland, partly because of rising la-bour costs in Asia and increased shipping charges, but also because having a research and development facility in the American facto-

ry allows the company to respond to new trends much faster.’ …

‘For Peerless AV, a company based in Auro-ra, Illinois, moving production back from China began with worries about protecting its intellec-tual property. Peerless makes metal brackets and stands for all sorts of televisions, ranging from screens hung in offices to information dis-plays at railway stations and the giant “video walls” used at music and sporting events. To make lighter, better-looking supports for the thinner screens it saw coming, the company decided in 2002 to produce a range made from aluminium instead of steel. Unable to find an American firm to supply suitable extrusions and castings at the right price, it turned to China. As the flat-screen boom took hold, sales soared – but then the company began to find copies of its products turning up all over the world.’ …

[38%]

Economic Environment

12-0447

SA – SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES. Engineer-

ing News, Vol 32(11), 30 Mar 2012:8.

‘The Department of Trade and Industry’s (DTI’s) initiative to create special economic zones (SEZs) may potentially provide signifi-cant and sustained economic benefits, but is also fraught with pitfalls that could undermine its efficacy, Free Market Foundation executive director Leon Louw says. Having studied and written about SEZs across the world, Louw said that thousands of SEZs, which included special trade zones of all kinds, were failures. Speaking at an Africa Institute of South Africa seminar on SEZs, he says South Africa had al-ready had a number of unsuccessful initiatives over the past 50 years, including the Apart-heid-era ‘growth points’ and ‘border industries’, as well as more recent industrial development zone (IDZ) projects at Coega in the Eastern Cape, Richard’s Bay in KwaZulu-Natal and the OR Tambo International Airport in Gauteng. “These projects are all failures, owing to none of them attracting substantial, profitable and sustainable investments, while a common trend among international failed SEZs were that they consumed more investment in infra-structure, subsidies and concessions than what they were able to produce,” Louw says. The DTI recently concluded a 60-day comment period in which it held public hearings with re-gard to giving organised business, labour and

4

the public an opportunity to voice their views on the SEZ Bill and policy, which was gazetted by Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies on January 23. The DTI says the purpose of the Bill was to broaden the scope and composition of dedicated industrial areas in South Africa and to support industrial decentralisation.’ [100%]

12-0448

ANKARA REVISITS OLD FRIENDS by N

Ford. African Business, No 385, Apr 2012:56-

57.

… ‘Ankara launched a 'Year of Africa' as long ago as 2005 and held a summit that at-tracted the leaders of almost every African country. Gul has toured African capitals on se-veral occasions over the past three years, hold-ing talks in Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville and Ghana among other states.’

‘Turkey had just 13 embassies in Africa in 2009 but now has 27. The new embassies have been opened in Angola, Burkina Faso, Came-roon, Chad, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Ma-dagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Uganda and Zambia. More are planned in the near future, including one in Djibouti by the end of this year.’

‘In December, representatives from almost every African state attended the Ministerial Re-view Conference of the Africa-Turkey Partner-ship in Istanbul, with the aim of strengthening commercial ties between Turkey and the conti-nent. Growing relations have also been initiated by African organisations. In January 2008, the AU voted to make Turkey one of the organisa-tion's strategic partners. Many African govern-ments have also opened embassies in Ankara for the first time. For instance, Ghana has now opened its embassy on the back of an increase in bilateral trade with Turkey from $175111 in 2009 to $440m by the end of last year. Accra predicts that this figure could rise to $1bn by 2015. The value of total Turkish exports to Afri-ca increased from $3bn in 2010 to $10bn in 2012.’

‘Setting examples?’

‘The move into Africa is part of a more as-sertive foreign policy. Talking to journalists about his country's growing role in the Muslim world, an unnamed Turkish official said: "We are not aspiring to become an imperial power again but history and geography are chasing us. We understand them better than others and they get along with us better than others." The Erdogan government hopes to replicate this ap-proach in Muslim Africa.’

‘Erdogan toured Egypt, Libya and Tunisia in September, taking almost 300 Turkish busi-nessmen with him. An estimated $850m worth of contracts were signed in Egypt alone. As always, the groundwork on negotiations is car-ried out before the official visit but the scale of the tour sent out a powerful signal about Tur-key's commitment to the region. Erdogan's popularity in North Africa also increased last year as a result of his calls for Hosni Mubarak to step down as president of Egypt, although his support for secular government in the re-gion has not met with the approval of every-one.’

‘Ankara's involvement in Africa could have another benefit. With a secular constitution in a largely Muslim nation, it can provide a model that other countries on the continent could fol-low. Indeed, the prevailing winds of change in North Africa appear to be blowing towards Is-lamic parties that are prepared to operate within a secular context.’

‘Peter Pham, the director of the Africa Pro-ject at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, argues: "The Turkish example of secularism in politics in the modern period is probably one worth considering for Africans who have been faced with religiously-stoked com-munal tensions." ’ [50%]

12-0449

AIRBUS HAS THE AFRICAN MARKET IN ITS

SIGHTS. Engineering News, Vol 32(20), 1 Jun

2012:6-7.

‘Africa is one of the emerging regions now being targeted by Airbus Military for sales of its aircraft, especially those in the light/medium category. "Our objective," said Airbus Military senior VP: commercial Antonio Rodriguez Bar-beran in Madrid, "is to grow in Africa." There is huge budget uncertainty today and in the com-ing years, especially in North America, Europe and Japan. This is further stimulating the com-pany´s already existing interest in emerging market countries. "Africa is starting to be a more solid market. We believe Africa will start growing [as a market], especially in the light and medium [aircraft] category. So, we are go-ing to be in Africa." The Airbus Military C295 twin-turboprop transport and special missions aircraft has already been sold to the air forces of Algeria, Egypt and Ghana. The Ghanaian Air Force should receive its second C295 this month and the Egyptian Air Force has already, this year, placed a repeat order, for three of the aircraft. The C295 is also being marketed to Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania. "We want to become global," affirmed Barberan.

5

"Being global means we want to be closer to the customer." This includes establishing rela-tionships with industry in the customer coun-tries. "Wherever we are going, we are esta-blishing strategic relationships with local indus-try." Today, if a company wants to compete in the defence sector, it "must be local". (Airbus Military already has partnerships with South African companies Aerosud and Denel Aero-structures in the A400M programme.) Other emerging areas being targeted by the compa-ny are Asia (especially India) and Latin Ameri-ca. "We need to reinforce our position in Latin America." ’ [100%]

12-0450

INTO AFRICA by K Campbell. Mining Weekly,

Vol 18(18), 18 May 2012:19.

… ‘Brazilian diversified mining major Vale has confirmed that its portfolio includes invest-ments of $7.7-billion in projects in nine African countries. Speaking at a recent seminar on Afri-ca hosted by Brazil’s National Economic and Social Development Bank (better known by its Portuguese initials, BNDES), Vale CEO Murilo Ferreira reaffirmed the importance of Africa in his company’s strategy.’

‘He highlighted that Vale continued to be in-terested in the continent and specifically cited coal and copper as sectors in which Vale con-tinued to make investments in Africa. These sectors have the potential to grow Vale’s African business, he pointed out.’ … [20%]

12-0451

THE GATEWAY TO AFRICA? Economist,

The, Vol 403(8787), 2 Jun 2012:40-41.

‘South Africa has made much of its induction last year into the vaunted BRICS club, consist-ing of Brazil, Russia, India and China, adding an S to the acronym. But it has been a struggle to justify the country’s inclusion. With an economy just a quarter the size of the smallest member (India) and a population little more than a third of its least-populous one (Russia), a main quali-fication claimed for it is that South Africa is “the gateway to Africa”. The continent’s economy is now the second fastest-growing in the world, its population is more than a billion strong (not much behind China’s or India’s), and its collec-tive GDP of nearly $2 trillion is bigger than ei-

ther Russia’s or India’s. All the same, is South Africa, still undoubtedly Africa’s most powerful and sophisticated country, doing quite as well as it claims?’

‘It did indeed once serve as a landing slot for investors wary of venturing into shakier African countries to the north. But in the past couple of decades the continent as a whole has become a lot more peaceful, democratic and stable. As a result, investment has been pouring in – and often bypassing South Africa. Some African countries, with economies growing twice as fast, are challenging its claim to be the region’s obvi-ous first stop for investors.’

‘The economy of Nigeria, with some 158m

people to South Africa’s 50m, has been roaring along at an annual rate of almost 7% for the past eight years – and may even become Afri-ca’s biggest by 2016, with Egypt (82m people) hot on its heels. At the same time, Ghana and Kenya, among others, are competing with South Africa to host the African headquarters of foreign multinationals. General Electric, for example, recently chose Nairobi, Kenya’s capi-tal, as its sub-Saharan hub, copying firms such as Nestlé, Coca-Cola and Heineken.’

‘Used to being top dog in almost everything in Africa, South Africa has been slipping down the league tables. In 1995 it accounted for al-most half of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP; today it claims less than a third. Although its econo-my grew at a robust 5% a year in the four years up to 2009 it has managed barely 3% since then, making it one of the slowest-growing in Africa. Its taxes are high, education is poor, and its rapid growth in real wages is outstripping productivity in almost all sectors. Foreign investment has been declining.’ … [50%]

6

12-0452

GAP BETWEEN AFRICA’S PERCEIVED AND

ACTUAL RISKS SPELLS OPPORTUNITY.

Engineering News, Vol 32(13), 13 Apr 2012:6.

‘The prevailing gap between Africa’s actual risk and its perceived risk was offering material opportunities for those willing to invest in the continent, which was home to six of the ten fastest-growing economies over the last ten years. In fact, Frost & Sullivan director of ope-rations for Africa Hendrik Malan argues that the paradigm was shifting from questions about whether or not to invest in Africa, to having to manage the risk of not being invested in Africa. Addressing a globally broadcast webinar, Malan says that, despite the low base, the economic growth experienced by the continent over the past decade had been attractive and also ap-peared to be more sustainable than in the past. The ‘new African Story’ was underpinned not only by the extractive industries, but also by ris-ing consumption, a growing middle class, rapid urbanisation and strong infrastructure needs and investment. But the much-vaunted African renaissance remains nascent and investors still confront serious obstacles, from corruption and conflict, through to infrastructural deficits and low levels of intraregional trade.’ [100%]

12-0453

PRIVATE EQUITY OUTLOOK OPTIMISTIC

IN EAST AFRICA. African Business, No 385,

Apr 2012:8.

‘East Africa attracted nearly a third of 66 private equity deals in sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 - worth $l88m out of a total $3bn, or 6%. Deals worth six times as much were done in West Africa, according to the East Africa Pri-vate Equity Confidence Survey from Deloitte and Africa Assets, Kenya. Despite growing in-terest, private equity penetration into East Afri-ca remains low.’

‘Nonetheless, the outlook is positive. East Africa "experienced a significant influx of pri-vate equity interest in 2011", says the report, it finds that 16 PE funds dedicate themselves solely to East Africa, beside another 37 broad-er-based funds that also invest in the region. Optimistically, 80% of people surveyed by the report expect private equity activity in the re-gion this year to grow. However, 40% of deals are worth less than $5m, with only 10% worth more than $20m, since donor-backed funds are keen to foster job creation through small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and

the fact that growth is strongest among smaller businesses. Large PE firms such as Actis have expressed doubts about the potential for big-ger deals to be done in East Africa, says the report.’

‘In everything from schools and agribusiness to manufacturing and healthcare, the latest sur-vey, of 38 respondents, notes "increased appe-tite" for investment in PE ventures, not only in powerhouse Kenya but also in Ethiopia, South Sudan and DR Congo. Infrastructure and tele-coms lead the sectors, although respondents said they are keen to focus on financial ser-vices, agriculture and agribusiness in the com-ing year.’ [100%]

12-0454

LAUNCH OF ‘INCLUSIVE’ WEALTH INDEX

REVEALS GDP LIMITATIONS by P Corea.

Science and Development Network, http://www.

scidev.net/en/science-and-innovation-policy/

science-at-rio-20/news/launch-of-inclusive-

wealth-index-reveals-gdp-limitations.html, 26 Jun

2012.

… ‘A new index that measures a nation's wealth by taking into account factors such as natural resources, social stability and wellbeing, has painted Colombia and Venezuela in a very different light to that suggested by their GDP (gross domestic product) – the traditional measure of a country's success.’

‘The Inclusive Wealth Indicator (IWI) was presented in preliminary form at the Planet Un-der Pressure conference in London, United Kingdom, in March, and formally unveiled – with further countries and data incorporated – at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) yesterday (18 June).’

‘The IWI was developed in response to growing calls in the lead up to Rio+20 for a measurement of development that would go "beyond GDP". It was created by the United Na-tions University's International Human Dimen-sions Programme (IHDP), with support from the UN Environment Programme.’

‘While GDP only considers variables relating to a country's manufacturing output, the IWI combines human capital data – such as a popu-lation's educational attainment, and data from forests, fisheries, fossil fuels, minerals and agri-cultural land (natural capital) – with calculations of manufactured capital. It also considers varia-bles related to health, such as extensions or re-ductions in life expectancy.’

‘Averaged over two decades, Colombia and Venezuela's GDPs were found to be positive (1.7 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively). But their IWI scores were negative (-0.1 and -0.3

7

respectively), indicating that both countries were on unsustainable paths.’

‘Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia and South Af-rica were also shown to have negative ratings. All other countries – of the 20 chosen to be evaluated – received positive ratings. First place went to China (2.1), followed by Germany (1.8), France (1.4), Chile (1.2), Brazil (0.9), India (0.9) and Japan (0.9).’ … [50%]

12-0455

WORLD CAN FEED MORE PEOPLE MORE

EFFICIENTLY – FAO. http://www.engineering

news.co.za/print-version/world-can-feed-more-

people-more-ef…, 31 May 2012.

‘The world can feed itself with less food out-put than previously forecast if it turns to sus-tainable farming, cuts waste and stops exces-sive consumption, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Wed-nesday.’

‘If current consumption patterns persist, the world will need to raise food output by 60% by 2050 from 2005/7 levels to feed a population expected to rise to nine-billion from about sev-en-billion now, according to FAO estimates.’

‘However, it is possible to feed the popula-tion with a smaller rise in food output than that, the FAO said in a policy report ahead of a sus-tainable development summit in Rio de Janei-ro.’

‘On the production side, agricultural and food systems should reduce their negative en-vironmental impacts, including soil and water depletion as well as greenhouse gas emis-sions, the report said.’

‘On the consumption side, people need to cut food losses and waste which amount to 1.3-billion tons a year, roughly one third of world food production for human consumption.’ … [55%]

12-0456

MORE STATE INTERVENTION NEEDED IN

MINING – MOTLANTHE. Mining Weekly, Vol

18(15), 27 Apr 2012:5.

‘The recent global financial crisis has shown that more state intervention is needed in the mining industry, Deputy President Kgale-ma Motlanthe says. “Contrary to the view that there must be less state involvement in the economy, the lessons from the recent econom-ic and financial crises ... [is] that more state in-volvement is sought,” Motlanthe said at the

ninth international mining history congress in Johannesburg. State involvement would se-cure the socio-economic development of South Africans, he adds. For this reason, the govern-ment endorsed the African Exploration Mining and Finance Corporation (AEMFC), as the “nu-cleus” of a state-owned mining company. It is through the AEMFC that the state could con-solidate its participation in mining and focus on ensuring the security of supply of minerals of strategic significance. A State mining company would complement the resuscitation of the min-ing industry as, despite the industry’s potential, private sector exploration investment had steadily declined since 1994, he says. Motlan-the says it was not sustainable to have a min-ing industry which used national resources al-most exclusively to enrich a small minority. Go-vernment wanted to see industry transforma-tion which included increasing employment in mining and related industries. At the same time, it wanted increased local procurement, fair prices for local manufacturers and a fair share of mining returns going to the fiscus. It also wants more women in mining and more blacks in mining management and the skilled trade. Communities around mines should ben-efit and have a secure future beyond the life of the mine.’ [100%]

12-0457

ATTITUDE SHIFT? Mining Weekly, Vol 18

(18), 18 May 2012:69.

… ‘Gold demand growth in China, the se-cond-largest consumer, may stagnate this year as declining prices put off investors and slower economic growth crimps sales, according to the mainland’s biggest gold-jewellery maker.’

‘ “The volatility and decline in the gold price since September, and the slower economic growth, have led to some subtle changes in the Chinese consumer’s attitude,” Lao Feng Xiang VP Xin Zhihong said in an interview. Still, sales at the Shanghai-based jeweller that was found-ed in 1848 may grow at least 20% this year, Xin said in an interview.’

‘Stagnating demand growth in the second- largest economy may help to extend the pre-cious metal’s 17.5% slump from a record and derail a World Gold Council projection that Chi-na may displace India as the top user on an an-nual basis this year. Demand in China expand-ed 20% last year from 2010, and has risen 96% since 2008, according to council data.’

‘ “It’s the worst start of the year since the fi-nancial crisis in 2008,” said Emily Li, brand GM at Chow Sang Sang Holdings International, re-ferring to conditions for the industry as a whole.

8

The company is Hong Kong’s second-largest gold and gem-set jewellery seller by market ca-pitalisation.’ …

‘Goldman Sachs said last week gold may be set to rebound over the next six months, stick-ing with a forecast for the metal to rally to $1 840/oz on the Comex in New York. The gain may be driven by additional easing from the US Federal Reserve next month, Goldman said in a report, which also cited signs of increased de-mand from buyers in China.’

‘Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong surged more than sixfold in the first quar-ter to 135.53 t, according to data from the Sta-tistics Department of the Hong Kong govern-ment this week. Shipments in March rose 59% from February.’

‘ “We’ve been in this business over 70 years and we’ve seen cycles,” said Li at Chow Sang Sang. Company sales in the mainland grew by more than 10% in the first quarter from a year ago, aided by purchases linked to the Year of the Dragon she said, referring to the current lunar year that is associated with wealth and power and is popular for weddings and births.’ [30%]

12-0458

COHERENT PLANNING by S Burger. Engi-

neering News, Vol 32(20), 1 Jun 2012:20.

… ‘The Presidential Infrastructure Coordinat-ing Commission’s (PICC’s) seventh Strategic In-tegrated Project (Sip 7) focuses on using coor-dinated development of urban and integrated transport networks to establish cities as engines of growth and development, two national Cabi-net Ministers said in May.’

‘Cooperative Governance and Traditional Af-fairs Minister Richard Baloyi and Economic De-velopment Minister Ebrahim Patel launched Sip 7 and said the focus of the Sip 7 committee would be on planning and coordinating integra-ted public transport networks, building sustain-able human settlements and the development of complementary economic and social infra-structure.’

‘ “We recognise that investment was not always strategically decided and lacked a co-herent planning framework that brought to-gether the economy, migration and basic needs of people,” said Patel, highlighting the importance of having a consistent, long-term planning framework for infrastructure devel-opment in place.’

‘ “If the State’s broader development goals are to be achieved, it is important to have a tool of forward planning,” he added.’ …

‘ “Our diagnostic, as part of the New Growth Path, indicated that too little was invested across the sweep of the last two decades, when we look at infrastructure spending as a percentage of gross domestic product,” said Patel.’

‘ “Further, when we look at infrastructure spending in areas of significant potential for economic development, it is clear that we had not [allocated] the resources that were required, the best example, [being] the lack of sustained investment in energy infrastructure,” he noted candidly at the launch.’

‘ “The aim is to accelerate infrastructure pro-jects in a coordinated manner,” said Prasa CEO Lucky Montana.’

‘ “We have spatial and regional underdevel-opment, which affects citizens’ access to eco-nomic opportunities and social services.’

‘ “There are a number of projects in the pipe-line, and some under development, and we must ensure that the projects reinforce others in a way that will transform our cities. The cities themselves are also expected to identify and implement infrastructure programmes under the advice and auspices of the relevant Sip, [of which there are 17],” he said.’ …

‘Infrastructure would also be used to create a market for South African-manufactured goods, specifically the components that go into the infrastructure build programme, he pointed out.’

‘ “Infrastructure must achieve many of the goals of the New Growth Path. It is the founda-tion and platform of a modern economy.’

‘ “This means that we need to address the challenge of beneficiation and infrastructure must unlock beneficiation opportunities,” he added.’

‘ “We aim to use economic enablers. For ex-ample, a significant infrastructure build pro-gramme requires large quantities of steel. So, investing now in expanded steel capacity, in-cluding greater competitiveness in the steel-making industry, is key to supplying steel for in-frastructure and to building a dynamic econo-my,” said Patel.’

‘ “We think of infrastructure as enabling and unlocking [economic potential]. For example, the President announced a R1-billion reduction in port charges for the [promotion of the] export of value-added manufactured goods,” he high-lighted.’

‘ “The main objective is the need to build three new, sustainable cities in Gauteng. We aim to start with Ekurhuleni, to the east of Jo-hannesburg, and take advantage of the airport there,” said Montana. “Further, we need to revi-talise Germiston, [an ageing industrial strong-hold on the city’s eastern edge], and this is im-

9

portant if we want to talk about job creation through the revitalisation of Germiston.’

‘ “We also aim to revitalise Vereeniging and Krugersdorp to overcome what have become decaying economic settlements,” noted Mon-tana.’ …

‘Further, public transport integration, particu-larly in Gauteng, between Metrorail, Metrobus, the bus rapid transit system and taxis is im-portant for the projects to succeed in overcom-ing South Africa’s transport infrastructure con-straints.’

‘A new link between Mthatha and Queens-town, in the Eastern Cape, as well as investigat-ing the feasibility of a commuter rail link from Port Elizabeth to nearby Motherwell and the in-dustrial development zone of Coega, are key priorities, noted Montana.’

‘Critically, transport can act as a catalyst for the development and transformation of the cit-ies and will enable people to access economic opportunities, Deputy Transport Minister Jere-my Cronin said at the same briefing.’ …

[35%]

12-0459

DOMESTIC DAWN by J McKenzie. Engineer-

ing News, Vol 32(19), 25 May 2012:16-17.

… ‘With domestic tourism already having contributed 76% of South Africa’s total tourism volume and R20-billion to the economy in 2011, Tourism Minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk has unveiled a strategy to grow domestic tourism even further.’

‘The South African Domestic Tourism Growth Strategy (DTGS), launched in Cape Town recently, follows on from the National Tourism Sector Strategy (NTSS) announced in 2011.’

‘Under the NTSS, a target to achieve 54-million domestic trips by 2020 has been set and it anticipates domestic tourism accounting for 60% of the sector’s overall contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), which will be an increase of about 5% on the 2009 figure. In total, the Department of Tourism has commit-ted, within the NTSS, to creating 225 000 jobs and increasing tourism’s economic contribution to GDP to R499-billion in the year 2020 through both domestic and foreign tourism.’

‘The DTGS, which has been developed over a period of eight months and followed an exten-sive consultative process, considers any forms of domestic travel, be it for leisure, business or visiting of friends and relatives, to fall under domestic tourism and thus strategies to in-crease these travel activities have been deve-loped.’

‘Research undertaken by SA Tourism in 2011 highlights the following reasons why only 44% of the total adult population in the country travel: cannot afford to travel (32%), no reason to take a trip (20%), time constraints (17%), no income or unemployed (11%) and dislike for travelling (10%).’ …

‘No Travel Culture’

‘Overall, the challenge, according to the DTGS, is that there is a lack of a travel culture among South Africans, especially among previ-ously disadvantaged communities. The domes-tic tourism industry also suffers from limited product development and diversification, which includes a lack of geographical spread and seasonality.’

‘Following on from this, the strategic objec-tives of the DTGS are clear, according to Van Schalkwyk. “This strategy aims to increase do-mestic tourism revenue, to increase domestic tourism volumes, to enhance measures and ef-forts aimed at addressing seasonality, to pro-mote an equitable geographic spread, but also to entrench a culture of tourism among all South Africans,” he says.’

‘To address the first two objectives of in-creasing domestic tourism revenue and vo-lumes, the DTGS outlines a plan to, among other things, focus on existing tourist attrac-tions and products in order to effectively in-crease the use of existing facilities and activi-ties in the country, such as museums, art gal-leries and sports events. This would include conducting an audit of the current tourism pro-ducts and services to ascertain adequate sup-ply for the various segments of the domestic market and also to facilitate the development of effective maintenance plans for existing tou-rism infrastructure under government’s admin-istration.’ …

‘Research conducted by SA Tourism has demonstrated that business tourism is vital as it generates more value than all other domestic categories in terms of average spend per trip. During 2011, a domestic business tourist spent about R2 500 on average for a trip compared to R1 600 that was spent for a holiday trip. The DTGS aims to have business tourism contri-buting 17% of the overall tourism revenue in 2020.’

‘Meeting the third objective of addressing the problem of the lack of geographic spread of domestic tourism and seasonality, the DTGS proposes further auditing of existing government-owned resorts, parks and nature reserves in less-visited regions that may not be optimally used. The strategy also targets creat-ing special activities for less-visited areas and low seasons. This will include providing sup-port for at least one ‘mega’ event in each prov-

10

ince (focusing on the less-visited provinces) during low season, which could take the form of a music festival, sporting or cultural event, or religious gathering. This should be coupled with the development of pre- and post-event-specific offerings, including packages, to in-crease the length of stay within the less-visited areas.’

‘Finally, increasing the level of the culture of tourism and travel among South Africans will be achieved by trying to, among other things, promote tourism values and attitudes through awareness campaigns, professionalising tour guiding, and developing a ‘back to our roots’ campaign aimed at revitalising culture and tra-ditions, which will target urban residents.’ … [50%]

12-0460

TWO DECADES, WIDENING GAPS by E Ap-

plegate. Bloomberg Businessweek, 30 Apr

2012:16.

‘The Gini coefficient, developed by Italian

statistician Corrado Gini, is used to measure in-come inequality. Below is the percent change in the Gini coefficient for the Group of 20 nations

…’ [100%]

12-0461

JOBURG PLANS TO INVEST R100BN IN IN-

FRASTRUCTURE by N Odendaal. Engineering

News, Vol 32(12), 6 Apr 2012:13.

… ‘The City of Johannesburg will spend over R100-billion on economic and social infrastruc-ture over the next ten years, City of Johannes-burg executive mayor Parks Tau said during March.’

‘To enable Johannesburg to facilitate local economic activity and create an enabling envi-ronment for growth, the city would focus on, be-

sides others, the upgrading of water reticulation systems, stormwater systems, electricity sub-stations, the road infrastructure network and waste treatment plants.’ …

‘The growth in population would also drive the need for urgent socioeconomic infrastruc-ture development.'

‘Johannesburg currently had a population of about 3.8-million and, by 2015, it was expected to reach 4.1-million. In 2040, it was forecast to have a population of 8-million.’

‘In line with this, infrastructure development should not only support the increased popula-tion, but also contribute to sustainable job crea-tion and skills development.’

‘The infrastructure development and refur-bishment would be done in collaboration with the private sector and key stakeholders. The city would also reprioritise its expenditure to en-sure revenue maximisation. Tau encouraged public–private partnerships for future projects.’ …

‘Further, demand-side management mea-sures and smart metering would be rolled out across Johannesburg in the medium term. The

city would also be retrofit-ting all its building with en-ergy saving installations.’

‘Tau also pointed to the development of enhanced and cost-effective service delivery, which was to be achieved through reduced fragmentation, the elimina-tion of duplication, im-proved accountability, in-creased focus on human resource development and the provision of incentives for performance.’ [85%]

12-0462

SA IMMIGRATION MAY BE EASED TO AT-

TRACT ENGINEERS FOR INFRASTRUC-

TURE PUSH. Engineering News, Vol 32(15), 27

Apr 2012:6.

‘The prevailing shortage of engineers has been identified by the Presidential Infrastruc-ture Coordinating Commission (PICC) as a major potential impediment to the effective im-plementation of South Africa’s ambitious infra-structure investment programme, which cur-rently comprises 17 Strategic Integrated Pro-jects, or Sips. The PICC’s newly released in-frastructure plan indicated that there were nearly 23 000 registered engineers in South Africa, of which about 5 500 were working in the public sector, including at the large State-

11

owned companies, such as Eskom and Trans-net. Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel, whose department acts as the secretari-at for the PICC, indicated on Friday that as part of a multipronged response to the “bottle-neck” government would consider further eas-ing immigration rules for technical profession-als. He says that the main thrust, however, would be to “grow our own timber” by beefing up the capacity of local universities to produce engineers at a rate commensurate with the needs of the infrastructure programme. In ad-dition, resources would be directed towards the Further Education and Training colleges to train technologists and technicians. However, he acknowledges that it has become difficult for graduates to gain work experience given the recent stop/start nature of public and pri-vate investment initiatives. Efforts would also be made to attract those South African engi-neers currently living and working abroad to re-turn to South Africa to apply their skills to what was emerging as a multidecade, multitrillion-rand programme to expand energy, transport and water infrastructure. “A third [component] is to ease the rules relating to the immigration of scarce skills,” Patel said at a gathering hosted by the PICC in Ekurhuleni to expose of-ficials from all three spheres of government to the main components of the infrastructure plan.’ [100%]

12-0463

AFRICA TO BE NEXT BOOMTOWN FOR

PRIVATE EQUITY. Engineering News, Vol 32

(16), 4 May 2012:6.

‘Africa is the next big thing, just ask Bob Geldof (…) and other private equity bankers. The Irish rocker made headlines in February when he announced the launch of his $200-million "8 Mile" fund, a sign the Live Aid organ-iser has turned from promoting debt for-giveness to private enterprise. Like the former Boomtown Rats frontman, more private equity investors are flocking to the continent, drawn by the prospect of outsize returns. The signs of Africa's stunning potential are obvious: 6% av-erage GDP growth, fast-rising incomes and abundant resources. So far, much growth has been beyond the reach of international inves-tors given the region's small and largely illiquid capital markets. But, for private equity firms with their natural bent toward unlisted compa-nies and longer investment horizons, Africa's hurdles are not insurmountable. "I tell our in-vestors that I think Africa is still probably the best-kept secret because we continue to make superior returns," John van Wyk, the cohead

for Africa at emerging markets private equity firm Actis, says. Actis, which also has a pres-ence in Asia and Latin America, aims to invest $300-million a year in Africa, with the bulk of that in the continent's biggest economies, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria. US firm Car-lyle Group LP, which set up shop on the conti-nent last year, is now looking for investments across sub-Saharan African and particularly in Nigeria, its Africa co-head told the Summit. Even domestic pension funds are interested.’ [100%]

12-0464

KEY DESTINATION by N Greve. Mining Week-

ly, Vol 18(19), 25 May 2012:15.

… ‘Several recent ventures and agreements between China and Africa-based resource companies have positioned the continent as a key destination for meeting China’s resource acquisitiveness, market research firm Frontier Advisory research and strategy head Hannah Edinger has asserted. She told the yearly Coal-trans Southern Africa conference, earlier this month, that China’s global resource appetite had driven its interest in Africa’s extractive in-dustries, including oil, gold, platinum, copper, nickel and manganese.’

‘In the second half of last year, two key deals in Africa totalling $1.74-billion were con-cluded with Chinese stakeholders, with a fur-ther five major deals – all in the extractive in-dustry and worth a total of $2.86-billion – pub-licly announced or pending during the same period. “China’s focus in Africa is centred on overcoming the supply-side constraints in re-source extraction, and [the country] uses infra-structure development to eliminate this supply-side risk.” ’

‘This infrastructure gap is perceived by Chi-na as a commercial opportunity for its banking institutions and construction companies in the face of increasing domestic competition, as well as presenting an increased level of attractive-ness for African infrastructure packages owing to resource offtake possibilities.’

‘The bulk of Chinese foreign direct invest-ment into the continent is injected into the min-ing and minerals sector, with 79% of African im-ports to China in 2010 comprising mineral pro-ducts, with coal leading this export trend.’

‘Although China boasts 19% of the known global coal reserves, these 170-billion tons face the critical obstacle of transportation bottlenecks on the mainland, with transport infrastructure ef-ficiencies lagging behind production.’

‘ “The growth of coal consumption in east-ern and southern China is occurring faster than

12

that of transportation infrastructure linking north-ern China to the south of the country, which has resulted in it being difficult to transport locally, and making it more sensible to import,” Eding-er noted.’

‘In addition, a five-year strategy aims to pro-mote a sustainable development path and a re-vised, cleaner energy mix, with emphasis on en-vironmental integrity and renewable energy as a cornerstone of China’s future development.’ [100%]

12-0465

CHINA UNLIKELY TO BE BIG AFRICAN

COAL INVESTOR by I Esterhuyzen. Mining

Weekly, Vol 18(19), 25 May 2012:15.

‘China’s involvement in Africa’s coal industry was likely to remain predominantly trade rather than investment related, Frontier Advisory re-search and strategy head Hannah Edinger said last week.’

‘She told delegates at the Coaltrans South-ern Africa conference, in Johannesburg, that significant potential existed for greater Chinese involvement in coal-fired power plants in Africa, but that the Asian giant currently did not view coal as a key strategic mineral.’

‘Edinger said drivers behind China’s coal imports included domestic transportation bottle-necks and growth of consumption, as well as the closure of smaller and inefficient domestic mines, which could not produce at costs that were competitive with imports.’ …

‘ “Countries with key strategic resources will need to position themselves to leverage China’s import demand and strategic investments in sectors such as infrastructure.’

‘ “Investments in infrastructure eliminates supply-side risks and created an enabling envi-ronment for doing business,” she noted.’ … [60%]

Futures Research

12-0466

MINING TRENDS – SHIFTING SCENARIOS

by H Lazenby. Mining Weekly, Vol 17(48), 6

Dec 2011:10.

… ‘Mining companies are being forced to in-corporate more complex scenarios into their strategic planning as some elements of the in-dustry are in constant change, a report released last week highlights.’

‘Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) global mining lead Philip Hopwood said execu-tives had to look beyond the traditional scena-rios in their planning, for previously unanticipat-ed risks, and must be willing to seek unconven-tional solutions to their conventional challeng-es.’

‘ “The factors influencing the global mining industry are moving to a new level of extremity, impelling companies to consider more sweeping scenarios than ever before.” ’

‘The ‘Tracking the trends 2012’ report identi-fied the top ten trends in the industry, indicating that various elements of the industry are in con-stant change, necessitating companies to em-brace more flexible planning strategies.’

‘One of these strategies is known as ‘strate-gic flexibility’, a tool that supplements traditional scenario-planning techniques by defining a strategy that includes appropriate actions, re-gardless of which scenario actual events re-semble.’

‘This is even more valuable in today’s terms, owing to so-called once-in-a-hundred-years events seemingly happening increasingly regu-larly, calling for increased vigilance from execu-tives. “Preparing for such unanticipated surpris-es is likely to require more of a creative licence than mining companies are accustomed to,” the report stated.’

‘The report pointed to increasing demand from developing countries pushing commodity prices upwards, as supply cannot meet de-mand. …’

‘Deloitte urged miners to understand cost drivers, enhance energy efficiency, improve capital project management, lock in supply by sourcing long term contracts with key suppliers and learn how to spend to save on costs in the long term.’

‘Further, the analyst established that re-sources sector profits are increasingly tempting to governments, resulting in seven governments increasing mining royalties in the past year alone, while three others introduced new export duties, focused on the mining industry.’

‘In addition to mining royalties, which tend to be charged against revenues rather than profits, many governments have begun to im-pose superprofit taxes, discovery bonuses, re-source rents, licence fees, indigenisation quo-tas, environmental levies and reconstruction tolls.’

‘Host countries are also seen as competing to become the world’s toughest regulators, as world nations ramp up their regulatory initia-tives and increasingly focus on the mining in-dustry, heightening the need for mining com-panies to review their regulatory compliance procedures.’

13

‘This had resulted in miners battling to keep profits, while industry stakeholders are increas-ingly finding themselves subject to higher lev-els of activism from host communities to im-plement social responsibility schemes than ev-er before.’

‘ “To meet the demands of a broad stake-holder base, mining companies will need to in-tegrate risk-based corporate social responsibil-ity strategies and develop and track key per-formance indicators with the same diligence they use to track production,” the report sug-gested.’

‘Further, there simply are not enough people to power projected mining company growth, and each year the skills gap extends to a wider range of functions. Steps companies can take to find willing workers include applying science to workforce planning, introducing industry-level cross training, and building a global culture.’

‘However, project risks rise as the supply and demand gap widens. As commodity prices fluctuate and the gap between supply and de-mand widens, the number of capital projects across the globe is mounting in the mining sec-tor. Mining companies must now focus on man-aging risks that could interfere with the ability to meet steady-production objectives.’

‘New financing avenues are also increasing-ly being explored, but Deloitte cautions that new sources of funding require new levels of knowledge. Despite the increased amounts of cash companies have on hand, due to increas-ed commodity prices, finding sufficient capital to fuel growth remained difficult.’

‘The key to success in these efforts hinges on mining companies’ ability to build the rela-tionships they require to gain access to foreign markets, while gaining better insight into those regions.’

‘Meanwhile, dwindling access to deposits, deteriorating grades, spiking global demand, and lofty commodity prices have heightened mining companies’ appetite for geographic and economic risk, yet few companies possess the internal skills to grow their capital project portfo-lios aggressively, or to operate in unfamiliar re-gions.’ [98%]

Physical Environment

12-0467

THE VANISHING NORTH. Economist, The, Vol

403(8789), 16 Jun 2012:13.

… ‘Now that summer is here, the Arctic is crowded with life. Phytoplankton are blooming

in its chilly seas. Fish, birds and whales are gorging on them. Millions of migratory geese are in their northern breeding grounds. And the area is teeming with scientists, performing a new Arctic ritual.’

‘Between now and early September, when

the polar pack ice shrivels to its summer mini-mum, they will pore over the daily sea ice re-ports of America’s National Snow and Ice Data Centre. Its satellite data will show that the ice has shrunk far below the long-term average. This is no anomaly: since the 1970s the sea ice has retreated by around 12% each decade. Last year the summer minimum was 4.33m square km (1.67m square miles) – almost half the average for the 1960s.’

‘The Arctic’s glaciers, including those of Greenland’s vast ice cap, are retreating. The land is thawing: the area covered by snow in June is roughly a fifth less than in the 1960s. The permafrost is shrinking. Alien plants, birds, fish and animals are creeping north: Atlantic mackerel, haddock and cod are coming up in Arctic nets. Some Arctic species will probably die out.’

‘Perhaps not since the 19th-century clear-

ance of America’s forests has the world seen such a spectacular environmental change. It is a stunning illustration of global warming, the cause of the melt. It also contains grave warn-ings of its dangers. The world would be mad to ignore them.’

‘Less feedback, please’

‘As our special report shows in detail, the Arctic is warming roughly twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Since the 1950s the lower atmosphere has warmed by a global average of 0.7 degrees Celsius; Greenland’s air has warmed by 1.5 degrees. The main reason ap-pears to be a catalytic warming effect, trig-gered by global warming. When snow or ice melt, they are replaced by darker melt-water pools, land or sea. As a result, the Arctic sur-face absorbs more solar heat. This causes lo-cal warming, therefore more melting, which causes more warming, and so on. This positive feedback shows how even a small change to

14

the Earth’s systems can trigger much greater ones.’

‘Some scientists also see a tipping-point – another feared term in the climatology lexicon – in the accelerating diminution of the sea ice. The term describes the moment at which the planet shifts from one environmental state to another: in this case, from an Arctic with sum-mer sea ice to one without it. By the end of this century – perhaps much sooner – there will probably be frequent summers with no sea ice at all.’

‘Arctic peoples have also noticed what is going on. Inuit hunters are finding the sea ice too thin to bear their sleds. Arctic governments are starting to see a bonanza in the melt. The Arctic is stocked with minerals that were hither-to largely inaccessible, including an estimated 30% of undiscovered reserves of natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil reserves. A com-bination of high commodity prices, proactive governments, technological progress and melt-ing ice will help bring these to market. Encour-aged by Arctic governments and dwindling re-serves elsewhere, oil companies are flocking north like migrating geese to explore the conti-nental shelves of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Norway and Russia. Canada and Russia also hope to develop their Arctic shipping-lanes, which the melt is making accessible. Russia’s Northern Sea Route, hugging the Siberian coast, cuts the normal distance between Eu-rope and Asia by more than a third. It will help ferry Russia’s Arctic resources to Asian mar-kets, and could one day be a wider boost to world trade.’

‘These exciting developments carry risks, however. Many fear for Arctic cultures – a Ca-nadian Inuit argues despairingly for her “right to be cold”. Others foresee conflict between Arctic countries scrambling for the region’s re-sources. Greens warn of environmental risks in developing them: a big oil spill would be disas-trous for fragile Arctic ecosystems.’ …

[70%]

12-0468

NEW SCRAMBLE by J McKenzie. Engineering

News, Vol 32(11), 30 Mar 2012:21.

… ‘In the context of the current nature of the oil and gas industry and the world crude oil price, Africa continued to be a “great frontier for the future”, Dr Duncan Clarke, chairperson and CEO of Global Pacific and Partners, said at the

Oil and Gas Africa 2012 conference in Cape Town this month.’

‘Clarke said that Africa had a history of over a 100 years of exploration and in the last 10 to 20 years the “corporate scramble” had acceler-ated significantly. He believed this would con-tinue to increase and Africa would benefit from continuing foreign investment, capital and tech-nology which would allow its potential to be un-locked.’ …

‘With all the interest, both local and foreign, Clarke said he believed “the industry will be bigger at the end of the century than it is to-day”. There were at present about 700 compa-nies involved in upstream oil and gas in Africa (with approximately 100 of these being African players) compared to about 250 at the start of the twenty-first century, according to Clarke’s figures. “It’s becoming harder and harder to fol-low every single player,” he commented.’

‘New possible frontiers on the continent were both onshore and offshore, in conventional and unconventional oil and gas and in many differ-ent countries, however slow licensing meant that less than half of the delineated acreage in Africa was leased. “A lot more can be allocated. It comes up slowly in bid rounds. African licens-ing agencies and governments are not world class. They’ve got a lot to learn and could im-prove greatly,” warned Clarke.’ …

‘Africa currently “punches above its weight” having 9% to 10% of the world’s oil reserves but producing 13% to 14% of the production volumes. As a result, Africa had become a net exporter of crude oil and also liquefied natural gas (LNG). Clarke said proven oil reserves on the continent were a conservative 120-billion barrels, which was at the level of Russia, with the difference being that the African reserves were more accessible and Russia an extreme-ly difficult country to do business in.’ …

‘In terms of the African oil and gas out-look, Clarke said that shale gas and coal-bed methane were “game changers” because of the large potential resources being discov-ered, as well as the growth in the global LNG market.’

‘With regard to South Africa, Clarke particu-larly believed the Karoo basin shale gas had po-tential to turn the country’s low growth rate around.’

‘ “The [shale gas] moratorium needs to be unlocked and quickly. We need to have the de-velopment taking place so we don’t miss the window of opportunity. I think this could be a major development ... and transform the eco-nomic future of South Africa.” ’ [70%]

15

12-0469

MACRO CHANGES by J McKenzie. Engineer-

ing News, Vol 32(11), 30 Mar 2012:24.

… ‘The global oil and gas industry had un-dergone a number of major developments in the recent past, which would affect the industry significantly going forward, Deloitte & Touche South Africa oil and gas leader Anton Botes said earlier this month.’

‘These developments include the growth of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, the global development of unconventional gas, the increase in riskier exploration and production investments and rising operating costs in the in-dustry.’

‘ “It used to be sufficient to view global oil and gas trends in the typical cyclical rhythms that the industry moves in. But in the last five to ten years, significant macro changes caused spikes in the matrix we usually evaluated of pro-duction, consumption and prices,” Botes said.’

‘For example, the rise of China to eclipse Japan as the world’s second-largest economy had a long-lasting impacting on global energy production, consumption and prices, he said. “These changes are not fleeting but structural and they are shifting the cyclical rhythm that we are used to in the oil and gas market.” ’ …

‘In the early 2000s, about ten countries ex-ported LNG and trade was based on long-term sales agreements and flowed from the produc-ers in South East Asia and the North East, to consumers in East Asia and Europe. However, LNG has in the last ten years become a global-ly traded commodity with new exporters from Latin America and West Africa emerging and new importers such as China and India ap-pearing. In the next five years, there would be additional exporters from North America, the Eastern Mediterranean and East Africa.’

‘ “By 2035, LNG could account for 50% of the international gas trade where it is currently around 26%,” predicted Botes.’

‘The emergence of new LNG exporters and importers had resulted in a change in the dy-namics of energy geopolitics. “The growth of LNG also signals a shift in fuel mix as countries such as the US, China, Australia and Japan see a future more reliant on natural gas than on coal ... and nuclear.” ’

‘… “High crude prices are incentivising pro-ducers to invest in exploration and production projects. The new shift now is that it has be-come economical for companies to go deeper and to go riskier.” Botes qualified this by saying that there were other factors also pushing the deeper exploration such as new technology available.’

‘However, the rising cost of doing business in the oil and gas industry was also impacting players globally. “Although capital expenditure of petroleum discoverers is on the rise, so too are operating costs. One of the main driver’s of increased [operating costs] is high wages and this could be a long-term problem for the per-ceived shortage of skilled labour. In a recent survey of petroleum executives conducted by the Economist a shortage of skilled labour was listed as the second major barrier to growth.” Unconventional exploration was also more la-bour intensive and locations typically more re-mote, which resulted in increased costs.’ … [90%]

12-0470

THE FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHTER FOR RE-

NEWABLE ENERGY IN SA. Engineering

News, Vol 32(15), 27 Apr 2012:67.

‘The Department of Energy’s announce-ment at the end of 2011 of the preferred bid-ders to become South Africa’s first renewable-energy independent power producers (REIPPs) marked the start of an exciting new leg of the country’s journey towards a truly green econ-omy. The momentum created by that an-nouncement has been reinforced through the implementation of the second phase of REIPPP bidding.’

‘While the second phase is still in progress, the fact that 53 qualified bids were received in the first phase of bidding – representing some 2 100 MW of potential renewable-energy capac-ity – speaks volumes about South Africa’s read-iness to enter the much-anticipated era of alter-native power provision. …’

‘Despite the lingering reservations from some quarters about the economic viability and sustainability of the REIPPP initiative, all indications are that the foundations have now been laid on which a robust green South Afri-can economy can be built. And the South Afri-can government, in collaboration with various public- and private-sector stakeholders, is clearly committed to realising its vision of a fu-ture South Africa that is powered significantly by renewable energy, as set out in govern-ment’s blueprint for energy procurement under the Integrated Resource Plan 2010, or IRP 2010.’ …

‘All these manufacturing and infrastructure facilities will require manpower to operate, and that manpower will be sourced from South Af-rica’s communities. Possibly more importantly, the vast majority of jobs created by the renew-able-energy programme will not be on a short-term contract basis, as is so often the case

16

with infrastructure projects, but will be jobs for life.’

‘This is because, for the first time ever in South Africa, we are seeing the realisation of a procurement process that extends way beyond a single, finite project. Unlike a typical infrastruc-ture undertaking, such as the building of a road or the laying of water pipes, the provision of re-newable energy has no end date. In fact, the potential for investment and job creation will grow exponentially for many years to come as government steps up its stated renewable-energy requirements in terms of its IRP from the current 4 500 MW to 9 600 MW over the next 20 years.’ …

‘… There is an opportunity for the South Af-rican government to be a significant driver of the country’s renewable-energy future simply by declaring its commitment to procuring the re-maining 4 500 MW in a clearly defined time-frame, as was done under the REIPPP. This will not only serve to further raise the confidence levels of other stakeholders, but will also help to crystalise the thinking and planning by prospec-tive energy developers and investors to ensure the necessary capacity is in place within the targeted timeframes.’

‘Public and industry support has an equally important role to play. …’

‘Quite apart from the many employment and economic benefits that a growing renewable-energy sector presents the country with, there are immense benefits to be unlocked for all South Africans and our environment, if we are able to reduce our dependence on high-carbon, finite and often unreliable electricity sources and step boldly into a new era of greener, cleaner and entirely sustainable energy.’ … [45%]

12-0471

AFRICAN MINING – MISSED OPPORTUNITY

by H Lazenby. Mining Weekly, Vol 17(48), 6

Dec 2011:21.

… ‘Africa has so far failed to benefit much from the commodity price boom, but opportuni-ties were still there, a report compiled on behalf of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) stated.’

‘The commodities boom offered the chance to increase tax revenue at the very least, the ‘Minerals and Africa’s Development’ report stat-ed, and said that governments of African mine-ral countries had the opportunity to negotiate more favourable licencing and tax regimes. Afri-can government could even consider equity participation in mining ventures or new State entities, but the report stressed that these had

to operate commercially and in competition with private firms.’ …

‘Most of the industry had weak links with the rest of the national economies, while the mines’ ownership and operation were still largely in the hands of foreign companies. Most of the miner-als were exported in raw form and the industry imports most of its inputs from abroad.’

‘The report argued that the enclave mineral economy was a colonial legacy that post-independence resource nationalism failed to re-dress. Subsequent World Bank-promoted re-forms, which were designed to attract foreign private risk capital, eliminated the State’s direct role in production and further entrenched the enclave economy.’ …

‘The report found that upstream, down-stream, sidestream and lateral minerals migra-tion linkages were not well developed, apart from transport and energy, reflecting the indus-try’s main orientation which was to extract and export bulk minerals to overseas markets. However, there were obstacles preventing such linkage strengthening, including large infra-structure deficits, which impeded the move-ment of goods and services; weak African mar-kets for minerals products, which reflected the overall low level of Africa’s industrialisation; technological deficiencies and wide skills gaps.’ …

‘ “Policymakers need to maximise the bene-ficial spill over effects of infrastructure triggered by mining through resource corridors.” ’

‘The report stressed that planning had to ex-plore collateral or integral use by other econom-ic sectors and that third-party access had to be allowed at nondiscriminatory tariffs. Further, ar-tisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), which is prevalent in Africa, could be better integrated in-to the mainstream of economic life, particularly in rural areas.’

‘It suggested that the policy environment should encourage cooperation between small- and large-scale miners, including converting ASM into viable operating enterprises.’ [60%]

12-0472

SHOOTS, GREENS AND LEAVES. Economist,

The, Vol 403(8789), 16 Jun 2012:58-60.

… ‘On the southern shore of Lake Naiva-sha, Kenya’s lush Rift Valley holds an unex-pected scent of English summer. For inside vast plastic greenhouses grow mile upon mile of roses. Exported to Europe, they account for a fifth of the commercial roses sold there and provide a tenth of Kenya’s foreign exchange.

17

But the business is a victim of its own suc-cess.’

‘Attracted by a scent more pungent than flowers, a quarter of a million Kenyans fol-lowed the rose growers into the valley, hoping to make money. To feed themselves, they ploughed the surrounding hills, felling the trees that filter and constrain the streams that flow into the lake; it is now polluted by silt and run-off.’

‘That might seem a classic story of devel-opment choked by the environmental damage it causes. But this one has a twist. The rose growers have started lending money to the smallholders, encouraging modern farming methods which leave the trees in place. Though it is early days, the results are promis-ing; they benefit growers, small farmers and the lake.’

‘Paying for environmental services is not a new idea. …’

‘These schemes have a wider significance. They are examples of “green growth”, an at-tempt to improve the often destructive relation-ship between economic development and the environment. In the run-up to the “Rio+20” con-ference on sustainable development in Brazil on June 20

th-22

nd, it has become the new man-

tra for business people and policymakers. But does it work?’

‘The central claim of “green growth” is that the course of industrialisation taken by Europe, America and other rich countries will not work for the rest of the world. Their route was “grow first, clean up later”. Environmental concerns played almost no role in the early stages of in-dustrialisation and remained weak until at least the 1960s. …’

‘The idea that environmental concerns are mainly for the rich is still powerful and persis-tent. It shapes parts of diplomacy. The Kyoto protocol on climate change exempted China and other developing polluters from obligations to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. It affects domestic politics. … And it influences econo-mics, which long ignored the environment in its models of how economies work. …’

‘But the costs of waiting for a clean-up are rising, undermining the argument that poor countries cannot afford to go green. The Chi-nese Academy of Social Sciences reckons the total annual damage to China’s economy from environment degradation is the equivalent of 9% of GDP (see chart). The World Bank says bad sanitation and water pollution cost India 6% of national income. Even ignoring the global impact of rising temperatures and falling biodiversity (…), therefore, the local and na-tional costs of environmental damage are alarming. Nicholas (now Lord) Stern, a British economist, said in a big report in 2006 that

climate change would be a brake on growth. That prediction may already be coming true.’

‘The brake is likely to get worse as coun-

tries grow richer. Most of the world’s popula-tion increase in the next 40 years will be in de-veloping countries. Two or three billion people will move into the middle class. This is two or three times as many as have achieved that status in the past 150 years. Many will want big cars, large air-conditioned houses and to eat meat, which uses up more water and land than grain does. This will put more stress on the environment in ways that will curtail growth. That would leave a lot of people poor and polluted – the worst of all possible worlds. Avoiding such an outcome is a problem for to-day, not tomorrow.’

‘To see why, look at the implications of dif-ferent sorts of urban design on pollution (cities account for 80% of all pollution so the way they are arranged matters a lot). Atlanta and Barce-lona have roughly the same population. But in 1990 Atlanta sprawled over an area 26 times larger, and has expanded since. As a result, it produces far more pollution (…). The differ-ence between a sprawling city and a compact one is fixed early in a city’s development; once sprawl begins, it is hard to reverse. Choices about urban design last centuries (or for many decades in the case of roads and power sta-tions). Asked to name the main cause of cli-mate change, the mayors of São Paulo, Mexi-co City and Dar-es-Salaam replied urban de-sign. Countries can no longer afford to wait un-til they get rich before worrying about urban design, or their energy mix. By then, it will be too late.’

‘So though the advice to “grow first, then go green” may have made sense in an era when the industrialising population was 500m and growth relatively slow, it will not work when bil-lions of people are following suit and econo-

18

mies are growing by up to 8% a year. Develop-ment has to be green from the start. In recog-nition of that, “green growth” plans are prolifer-ating in poor and middle-income countries. …’

‘But just because something is fashionable does not make it useful. The real question about green growth is whether it can fulfil its promise that poor countries can have both greenery and prosperity.’

‘The core idea is that the environment is another kind of capital. It makes a measurable contribution to output and should be accounted for, invested in, exploited efficiently and (ideal-ly) increased in value.’

‘This is controversial. Many do-gooding out-fits are horrified at the idea of exploiting the environment, however efficiently. (Indeed, some might think exploiting it efficiently is worse.) They accuse green-growth proponents of “greenwashing capitalism” and insist the on-ly way to safeguard the world’s natural re-sources is to cut consumption.’

‘Some large countries resist green growth for the opposite reason. They think it means imposing Western environmental standards on them by stealth, stifling job creation and ex-ports. Both sides agree on one thing: that greenery and growth are in conflict. …’ …

‘In principle, green-growth policies should boost productivity and permit longer-term growth than other approaches. Using natural resources more efficiently ought to divert wasted capital to more productive investment. Spending on things like clean energy should boost innovation, which is good for the econo-my as a whole. And, in theory, enhancing the value of natural capital is good for growth, just as any other sort of capital increase would be.’

‘Still, doubts remain about green growth. First, it is not clear how far any policies rooted in improving efficiency can really go without proper prices for carbon, water and (in most poor countries) land. It is true that even the threat of carbon or water prices in itself making a difference, because companies cannot afford to find themselves suddenly having to pay, say, $40 a tonne for carbon, without any prep-aration. They are therefore starting to use shadow prices. Still, no one has yet found a way to price basic inputs properly. And without them most green-growth policies will always be second-best.’

‘Next, green-growth policies deal with local environmental problems better than global ones. The benefits of, say, watershed man-agement can be captured nationally now, but the future benefits of lower greenhouse-gas emissions are dispersed in place and time. So worries about how far green growth can deal with climate change are partially justified.’

‘Moreover, green growth depends on the idea that it is possible to value the environment accurately enough for companies to take prop-er account of environmental costs. That is a nice idea. But “natural capital accounting” has some way to go. Statisticians and accountants have agreed on general auditing principles but these are not yet detailed enough for compa-nies.’

‘All that said, green growth remains an im-provement both on what exists now (which in many poor countries is practically nothing) and what environmentalists have often demanded in the past. Poor and middle-income countries know full well that their environment is degrad-ed, their cities sprawling and their water sup-plies running out. They also know that to try to solve such problems by cutting growth would be to commit political suicide and condemn to-day’s poor to a hopeless future. Green growth offers the best hope that the countries facing the sharpest conflicts between prosperity and preserving the environment can square the cir-cle.’ [50%]

12-0473

THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT - BOUNDARY

CONDITIONS. Economist, The, Vol 403(8789),

16 Jun 2012:75-76.

… ‘Pull a spring, let it go, and it will snap back into shape. Pull it further and yet further and it will go on springing back until, quite sud-denly, it won’t. What was once a spring has be-come a useless piece of curly wire. And that, in a nutshell, is what many scientists worry may happen to the Earth if its systems are over-stretched like those of an abused spring.’

‘One result of this worry, in the autumn of 2009, was the idea of planetary boundaries. In the run-up to that year’s climate conference in Copenhagen a group of concerned scientists working under the auspices of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, in Sweden, defined, in a paper in Nature, what they thought of as a safe operating space for human development – a set of nine limits beyond which people should not push their planet.’

‘The nine areas of concern were: climate change; ocean acidification; the thinning of the ozone layer; intervention in the nitrogen and phosphate cycles (crucial to plant growth); the conversion of wilderness to farms and cities; extinctions; the build up of chemical pollutants; and the level of particulate pollutants in the atmosphere. For seven of these areas the pa-per’s authors felt confident enough to put numbers on where the boundaries actually lay.

19

For chemicals and particulates, they deferred judgment.’

‘Since then, the idea of planetary bounda-ries has taken root. It crops up repeatedly in GEO-5, the United Nations Environment Pro-gramme’s new assessment of the world. The High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability, which reported recently to Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s secretary-general, gave the idea pride of place. And Planet Under Pressure, a big scien-tific conference held recently in London, made boundaries central to the message it sent to Rio+20, the UN environmental summit that opens in Brazil on June 20

th.’

‘Don’t fence me in’ ‘Planetary boundaries provide a useful way

of thinking about environmental change, be-cause in many cases they give scope for fur-ther change that has not already happened. That has brought the concept friends who are not normally persuaded by environmental thinking, as well as green enemies who will brook no compromise. But the concept has numerous drawbacks. The actual location of the boundaries is, as their proponents acknow-ledge, somewhat arbitrary. That is partly be-cause of the incomplete state of current know-ledge, but it may remain so however much any-one knows. Some boundaries might be trans-gressed without irreversible harm occurring. Some may have been drawn around the wrong things altogether. And some academic opinion holds that spectacular global change could come about without breaking through any of them.’

‘The latest criticism comes from the Break-through Institute, a determinedly heterodox American think-tank that focuses on energy and the environment. Among the points made in a report it published on June 11

th, two stand

out. The first is that the idea of boundaries does not focus enough on the distinction be-tween things with truly global effects and those that matter primarily at a local or regional level. The second is that the planetary-boundaries group derives most of its limits by looking at conditions during the Holocene – the epoch since the end of the most recent ice age, in which human civilisations have grown up. Both of these criticisms have merit.’

‘For things that clearly do have the spring-like quality of shifting irreversibly if pulled (or pushed) too far, like the collapse of ice sheets or the melting of permafrost, a boundary sys-tem that seeks to stop you getting too close to the threshold seems as sensible as a safety rail is on a parapet. There is good reason to believe that parts of the climate do behave this way, and thus need railing off. But of the nine boundaries, only three apply to systems where

the boundary setters really believe there is a global threshold: the climate; the acidity of the oceans; and the ozone layer. Some of the oth-er six may have local thresholds, but for the most part their global effects are simply the aggregate of the local ones.’

‘Confusing the two might, in the Break-through Institute’s view, result in poor policy. …’

[45%]

12-0474

RIO+20 – THE “LANDSCAPE APPROACH”.

Irin, http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95670/RIO-

20-The-landscape-approach, 18 Jun 2012.

‘A new and awkward term is doing the rounds at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development, also known as Rio+20, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It is "landscape science/ agricul-ture/ approach", which now embraces "eco-agriculture", "forest landscape restoration", "ter-ritorial development", "model forests", "food-sheds", "participatory watershed management", "community-based natural resource manage-ment", "biological corridors", and many other connected concepts.’

‘This is no fringe effort - its collaborators are the UN Environment Programme, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, the World Resources Institute, and Conservation Interna-tional, among others.’

‘What is it?’

‘As higher temperatures and erratic rainfall affect the lives of rural dwellers, this approach helps them develop and use their land and wa-ter resources more efficiently to earn a liveli-hood, produce food, maintain livestock and take care of other needs. But they do it in a manner that causes minimum damage to the environment while helping to restore and main-tain biodiversity, according to Sara Scherr, president and CEO of EcoAgriculture Partners, a co-organizer of the Landscapes for People, Food and Nature Initiative, a US-based non-profit organization.’

‘The initiative hopes to use spatial technol-ogy, for instance, to advise rural communities on which portion of the land in their village should be put under agriculture, or left alone to revive, to ensure the ecological balance is maintained.’

‘It falls under the broader ambit of sustaina-ble development. The Rural Futures program-me of the African Union, launched in 2010, is based on a similar approach, better known as integrated rural development.’

20

‘How is it different?’ ‘But unlike the integrated rural development

models from the 1970s and ‘80s, where a lead organization devised and financed a "top-down" plan within a defined project period, landscape initiatives are led by local stake-holders, said Scherr.’ … [65%]

12-0475

RIO+20 – BATTLES WON AND LOST. Irin,

http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95691/RIO-20-

Battles-won-and-lost, 20 Jun 2012.

‘The adoption of the controversial concept of a “green economy“ was to have been the big story out of Rio+20, the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.’ …

‘But the definition of a “green economy” has been left for each country to decide and comes with several compromises. “Better a wishy-washy concept of a green economy than a bad definition,” said Martin Khor, the director of South Centre, an intergovernmental body of de-veloping countries based in Geneva, Switzer-land.’ …

‘Here is a sense of the good and the not-so-good in the final outcome document, criticized by civil society and many scientists as lacking ambition. “It depends on how you see it - half-full or half-empty,” said Khor. “We ended up de-fending what we had gained in Rio in 1992, but at least we managed to do that.” ’

‘The good’

‘The green economy: The document sets out the vision in the context of sustainable deve-lopment and poverty eradication, and states that it must not create new trade barriers; impose new conditionalities on aid and fi-nance; widen technology gaps, or exacer-bate the technological dependence of devel-oping countries on developed countries; re-strict the policy space for countries to pursue their own paths to sustainable development. In short, trying to address the mistrust be-tween the developing and developed world that has built up over the years. Most devel-oped countries supported the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, the use and production of renewable energies, and the creation of “green” jobs.’

‘Technology transfer: To set out on an alter-native energy path, developing countries called for the transfer of technologies from the developed world to them. This was a long and hard-fought battle, with rich coun-

tries resisting the inclusion of the word “transfer”, and any reference to money for doing so. Both these aspects feature in the final text.’

‘Common but differentiated responsibilities: The reference to this term, which essentially acknowledges the divide between the devel-oped and the developing world, remains in the text.’

‘Right to food: Despite resistance from some developing countries, this right made it into the final text. It implies an obligation by countries to enforce the right to food by way of law. The text also calls for the phasing-out of agricultural subsidies.’

‘Commission on Sustainable Development: The toothless commission will be elevated to a high-level body charged with monitor-ing and enforcing sustainable development goals (SDGs) and will report to the UN General Assembly.’

‘SDGs: The contentious issue of when and how to initiate the SDGs without disrupting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) process was resolved. The document sug-gests the SDGs should complement and strengthen MDGs in the development agen-da for the post-2015 period, with a view to establishing a set of goals in 2015 that are part of the post-2015 UN Development Agenda.’ ‘It suggests the new SDGs should cover sustainable consumption and production patterns, as well as priority areas such as oceans; food security and sustainable agri-culture; sustainable energy for all; water ac-cess and efficiency; sustainable cities; green jobs, decent work and social inclusion; and disaster risk reduction and resilience.’

‘Right to water and sanitation.’

‘Official Development Assistance: The draft urges developed countries to make addi-tional concrete efforts towards the target of allocating 0.7 percent of their gross national product (GNP) to development aid, which was part of the original Rio action plan in 1992. This inclusion was resisted by some developed countries.’

‘Sustainable Consumption and Production: The text calls for a 10-Year Framework of Programmes on sustainable consumption and production (SCP) as part of a global pact on these aspects.’

21

‘The not-so-good’

‘Reproductive rights: The conservative lob-by won and this reference was removed, setting back progress made by women rights activists in the past two decades. An-tonio de Aguiar Patriota, Brazil’s foreign mi-nister, said he was “extremely disappoint-ed” by this decision. As a compromise, a reference to the Cairo Declaration in 1994, which defined the reproductive rights of women, was included.’

‘Oceans: Instead of a definite call, the coun-tries have agreed “to initiate, as soon as possible, the negotiation of an implementing agreement” to “address the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction”. Lasse Gustavsson, head of the World Wide Fund for Nature, remarked at Rio+20 that this might as well mean nothing at all.’

‘Finance: There was no real commitment to funding as the European Union’s economic crisis cast a deep shadow over the proceed-ings, said chief Brazilian negotiator Andre Correa Do Lago. The developing countries had called for a commitment of finance to help countries scale up sustainable devel-opment goal projects, and for the transfer of technology.’

‘Green economy: With all the “ifs” and “buts”, will green technology ever take off?’

[92%]

12-0476

FACTBOX – MAIN POINTS IN RIO+20

AGREEMENT by N Chestney. Planet Ark,

http://planetark.org/wen/65738, 25 Jun 2012.

… ‘Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)’

‘It was hoped that Rio+20 would hammer out goals across core areas like food security, water and energy.’

‘But expectations were low that it would produce a defined set of mandatory measures with timeliness because politicians are more focused on the global financial crisis and un-rest in the Middle East.’

‘The agreement proposed launching a pro-cess to agree on sustainable development goals, or SDGs, which will likely build on and overlap with a current round of objectives known as the millennium development goals,

which U.N. members agreed to pursue at least through 2015.’

‘ "We resolve to establish an inclusive and transparent inter-governmental process on SDGs that is open to all stakeholders with a view to developing global sustainable deve-lopment goals to be agreed by the United Na-tions General Assembly (in September)," it said.’

‘The goals should also be coherent with and integrated into the U.N. Development Agenda after 2015, the agreement said.’

‘A 30-member working group will decide on a work plan and present a proposal for SDGs to the U.N. general assembly in September 2013.’

‘Fossil fuel subsidies’

‘It was also hoped that Rio+20 could firm up a commitment for all countries to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels.’

‘Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies by 2020 would reduce annual global energy demand by 5 percent and carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 6 percent, according to the International Energy Agency.’

‘In 2009, G20 leaders agreed to do this in principle but no timelines have been set. A G20 meeting in Mexico, which ended on Tues-day, also failed to firm up the idea.’

‘The Rio+20 text reaffirmed previous com-mitments by countries to "phase out harmful and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that en-courage wasteful consumption." ’

‘But it stopped short of beefing up the vol-untary commitment with timetables or more de-tails, which disappointed some business and environmental groups.’

‘Oceans’

‘The text committed to "take action to re-duce the incidence and impacts of such pollu-tion on marine ecosystems, including through the effective implementation of relevant con-ventions adopted in the framework of the In-ternational Maritime Organization." ’

‘It also proposed that countries take action by 2025 to achieve "significant reductions" in marine debris to prevent harm to the marine environment, and committed to implement measures to prevent the introduction of alien invasive marine species and manage their ad-verse environmental impacts.’

‘It also reiterated a need to work further on preventing ocean acidification.’

‘However, an eagerly awaited decision on a governance structure for the high seas was put off for a few years.’

22

‘Countries such as the United States, Can-ada, Russia and Venezuela opposed strong language to implement it, observers said.’ …

‘Green economy’

‘One of the major themes of the conference was the concept of a "green economy," or im-proving human well-being and social equity while reducing environmental risks, which could be a common roadmap for sustainable development.’

‘The agreement affirmed that each country could have its own path toward achieving a "green economy." The text said it could pro-vide options for policy making but should not be a "rigid set of rules." ’

‘GDP+’

‘Another topic of the summit was ensuring that corporate and government accounting re-flects environmental profit and loss.’

‘The text recognized the need for "broader measures of progress to complement GDP" to better inform policy decisions. It asked the U.N. Statistical Commission to launch a pro-gram of work to build on existing initiatives.’ [60%]

12-0477

U.N. REPORT WARNS ENVIRONMENT IS AT

TIPPING POINT. USATODAY.com, http://www.

usatoday.com/weather/climate/story/2012-06-

06/un-environment-report/55431404/1, 8 Jun

2012.

‘The earth's environmental systems "are be-ing pushed towards their biophysical limits," be-yond which loom sudden, irreversible and po-tentially catastrophic changes, the United Na-tions Environment Program warned Wednes-day.’

‘In a 525-page report on the health of the planet, the agency paints a grim picture: The melting of the polar ice caps, desertification in Africa, deforestation of tropical jungles, spi-ral[l]ing use of chemicals and the emptying out of the world's seas are just some of myriad en-vironmental catastrophes posing a threat to life as we know it.’

‘ "As human pressures on the earth … ac-celerate, several critical global, regional and lo-cal thresholds are close or have been exceed-ed," the report says. "Once these have been passed, abrupt and possibly irreversible chang-es to the life-support functions of the planet are likely to occur, with significant adverse implica-tions for human well-being." ’

‘Such adverse implications include rising sea levels, increased frequency and severity of

floods and droughts, and the collapse of fisher-ies, said the report, which compiles the work of the past three years by a team of 300 research-ers.’

‘The bad news doesn't end there. The report says about 20 percent of vertebrate species are under threat of extinction, coral reefs have de-clined by 38 percent since 1980, greenhouse gas emissions could double over the next 50 years, and 90 percent of water and fish samples from aquatic environments are contaminated by pesticides.’

‘It adds that of the 90 most crucial environ-mental goals, little or no progress has been made over the past five years on nearly a third of them, including global warming. Significant progress has been made on just four of the ob-jectives, the report says.’ …

[30%]

12-0478

FRACKING GREAT. Economist, The, Vol 403

(8787), 2 Jun 2012:18.

… ‘The story of America’s shale-gas revolu-tion offers hope in hard times. The ground was laid in the late 1990s, when a now-fabled Texan oilman, George Mitchell, developed an afford-able way to extract natural gas locked up in shale rock and other geological formations. It involves blasting them with water, sand and chemicals – a technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking”. America’s shale-gas in-dustry has since drilled 20,000 wells, created hundreds of thousands of jobs, directly and indi-rectly, and provided lots of cheap gas. This is a huge advantage to American industry and a re-lief to those who fret about American energy se-curity.’

‘The revolution should continue, according to a report published this week by the Interna-tional Energy Agency (IEA). At current produc-tion rates, America has over a century’s supply of gas, half of it stored in shale and other “un-conventional” formations. It should also spread, to China, Australia, Argentina and Eu-rope. Global gas production could increase by 50% between 2010 and 2035, with unconven-tional sources supplying two-thirds of the growth (…).’

‘A number of things could prevent this, how-ever. Many of the factors behind America’s gas boom, including liberal regulation of pipelines (which encouraged wildcat exploration by small producers), a well-aimed subsidy and abundant drill-rigs, do not exist elsewhere. Its sheer ra-pidity is therefore unlikely to be matched. A greater threat stems from environmental pro-tests, especially in some European countries,

23

which could kill the shale-gas industry at birth. France and Bulgaria have banned fracking. Greens in America and Australia (…) are also rallying against the industry.’

‘The anti-frackers have reasonable grounds for worry. Producing shale gas uses lots of en-ergy and water, and can cause pollution in sev-eral ways. One concern is possible contamina-tion of aquifers by methane, fracking fluids or the radioactive gunk they dislodge. This is not known to have happened; but it probably has, where well-shafts passing through aquifers have been poorly sealed.’

‘Another worry is that fracking fluids regurgi-tated up well-shafts might percolate into ground-water. A graver fear is that large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse-gas, could be emitted during the entire process of exploration and production. Some also fret that fracking might induce earthquakes – especially after it was linked to 50 tiny tremors in northern Eng-land last year.’

‘But the risks from shale gas can be man-aged. Properly concreted well-shafts do not leak; regurgitants can be collected and made safe; preventing gas venting and flaring would limit methane emissions to acceptable levels; and the risk of tremors, which commonly occur as a result of conventional oil-and-gas activities, can be contained by careful monitoring. The IEA estimates that such measures would add 7% to the cost of the average shale-gas well. That is a small price to pay for environmental protection and the health of a promising indus-try.’

‘For as well as posing environmental risks, a gas boom would bring an important environ-mental benefit. Burning gas emits half as much carbon dioxide as coal; so where gas substitutes for coal, emissions will fall. America’s emissions have fallen by 450m tonnes in the past five years, more than any other country’s. Ironically, given its far greater effort to tackle climate change, the European Union has seen its emis-sions rise, partly because of an increase in coal-fired power generation in response to Europe’s high gas price.’ … [85%]

12-0479

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING – ADDING TO

THE DEBATE. Water Wheel, The, Vol 11(3),

May/Jun 2012:16-20.

… ‘Since the announcement that gas explo-ration might take place in the Karoo, the topic has caused both elation and concern – often placing polarised opinions directly opposite to each other. On the one hand, there is the pros-pect of job creation and a reduced dependency

on coal-generated electricity. On the other, con-cern has been raised that the process could pol-lute already scare water supplies and the pris-tine way of life in the Karoo.’

‘Lack of scientific proof to backup claims on any side of the fence has fuelled the confusion. A recent WRC report aims to fill at least some of these gaps by looking at what we currently know about the process of hydraulic fracturing, and what could happen should the process take place. Led by Prof Gideon Steyl, research fellow at the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a Professor in Chemistry, the key is-sues that the report focuses on are the shale gas reservoir potential in the main Karoo basin as well as other potential areas of interest; the location relative to and relationship between the shale gas reservoirs and the Karoo aquifer systems; and the potential impacts associated with hydraulic fracturing and accompanying processes. The research group also consisted of Prof Gerrit van Tonder, Professor in Geo-hydrology at the University of the Free State and Dr Luc Chevallier of the Council for Geo-science.’

‘Prof Steyl is careful to point out that the ob-servations and findings made are neither totally comprehensive nor exhaustive, since little data is available in the public domain on hydraulic fracturing in South Africa. …’ … [18%]

12-0480

AFRICA SITTING ON SEA OF GROUNDWA-

TER RESERVES. Engineering News, Vol 32

(16), 4 May 2012:6.

‘Huge reserves of underground water in some of the driest parts of Africa could provide a buffer against the effects of climate change for years to come, scientists say. Researchers from the British Geological Survey and University College London have, for the first time, mapped the aquifers, or groundwater, across the conti-nent and the amount they hold. "The largest groundwater volumes are found in the large se-dimentary aquifers in the North African coun-tries Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan," the sci-entists say. They estimate that reserves of groundwater across the continent are 100 times the amount found on its surface, or 0.66-million cubic kilometres. Writing in the journal Environ-mental Research Letters, they caution, though, that not all these reserves can be accessed. Where they can, small-scale extraction using hand pumps will be better than large-scale drill-ing projects, which could quickly deplete the reservoirs and have other unforeseen conse-quences. Groundwater is no panacea for Afri-ca's water shortages but it could form an im-

24

portant part of a strategy to cope with an ex-pected sharp increase in demand for water as the continent's population increases. Even now, some estimates put the number of Africans without access to safe drinking water at more than 300-million and only 5% of arable land is irrigated. "It is not as simple as drilling big bore holes and seeing rice fields spring up every-where," says Dr Stephen Foster, a London-based senior adviser for aid group Global Water Partnership and an expert in groundwater is-sues. He says the focus of efforts to improve water supply should be on better collection and storage.’ [100%]

12-0481

THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF WATER by R

Jansen van Vuuren. Imiesa, Vol 27(5), May

2012:9-11.

‘Edna Molewa, the minister of Water and Environmental Affairs, recently raised eyebrows when she stated that about R572 billion will be needed in the water value chain over the next decade.’

‘Molewa has since then explained that this amount of money is required to pay for water resources infrastructure, water services and wa-ter conservation, demand management across national, district and municipal levels, as well as South Africa’s 12 water boards. The amount can be broken down as follows:

R162 billion for water resources infrastruc-ture

R394 billion for water services

R16 billion for conservation demand man-agement.’ ‘Despite presenting this news, Molewa is

adamant that South Africa is not faced with a water crisis … yet.’

‘It is no secret that infrastructure asset man-agement in South Africa is dire and the R96 bil-lion steered towards repairing existing water in-frastructure is testament to this. How on earth could this be allowed to happen in the first place? “There have been terrible weaknesses, especially at a municipal level, with regards to maintenance,” explains Molewa.’

‘A shortage of essential skills, funding and in some cases pure neglect have taken their toll.’

‘It is expected that a significant portion of the R572 billion will be raised through the increas-ing of water tariffs in coming years. The govern-ment has identified water as a critical source and several water projects will be elevated for funding through the Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Committee.’

‘By the end of the year, consumers will have a fair idea of exactly where they stand with re-gards to standardised tariffs across the different sectors that may be affected. The government will also be looking to the private sector for funding.’

‘Government also hopes to attract R25 bil-lion from foreign investors for maintenance of ageing water infrastructure. Molewa also reports that government is investigating partial privati-sation of some water treatment plants.’

`Projections indicate that South Africa will experience a 17% gap between water supply and demand by 2030 – a shortfall of 2.7 billion cubic metres, according to the Carbon Disclo-sure Project. Worse still is that some of South Africa’s most economically important catch-ment areas will be badly affected. It has been estimated the Upper Vaal and Olifants catch-ment areas face supply shortfalls of 31% and 39% respectively, while the Berg water man-agement area will see a supply shortfall of 28%.’

‘The South African government has, over the past 17 years, focused on widening access to services to correct apartheid-era inequali-ties, but the result is an annual water infra-structure maintenance spending backlog of R2.66 billion. With this mind, Molewa is inves-tigating “the possibility of some of the treat-ment plants being developed, owned and man-aged” by the private sector or possible public-private partnerships.’ … [75%]

12-0482

WATER WORRIES by N Buthelezi. Mining

Weekly, Vol 18(12), 6 Apr 2012:19.

… ‘Climate change will make some areas of South Africa wetter and others drier, says global consulting engineering group SRK Consulting partner and hydrologist Peter Shepherd, who warns that mines will have to deal with having too much or too little water.’

‘He believes that climate change will primari-ly reduce the available water supply in the main mining areas in the country as well as increase evaporation. This will result in having to in-crease the makeup water requirement at these mines.’ …

‘ “Mines are already including plans to se-cure additional water in the drier South African areas and are carrying out stormwater risk as-sessments to meet the potential changes that could be expected,” he says.’

‘According to recent research, climate change will make the eastern parts of South Af-rica significantly wetter, and the western regions drier.’

25

‘It is predicted that, in the eastern areas of the country, mines will experience an increase in the amount of water that the mine will need to deal with to prevent spillage into the environ-ment, while those in the western parts will need to reuse and reclaim their existing water to as-sist in minimising the use of local water re-sources.’

‘ “Managing the on-mine water balance in drier areas is going to require better reuse stra-tegies.’

‘ “Continued improvement is required in the design and implementation of ways to keep dirty water within the mine boundary and to limit the amount of clean water that mines procure from municipal or other sources.” ’

‘In areas where more rain is predicted, mines face the prospect of breaking the law if their infrastructure is not able to limit mine spill-age into the environment surrounding the site.’

‘Facilities in these areas must be designed or modified to account for the changes in rainfall patterns.’ …

‘Using recent research, SRK scientists Phil-lip Hull and Hediyih Ghassai predict that a 40% increase in rainfall could more than double the amount of contaminated water spilled by a mine into the environment.’ … [75%]

12-0483

MINING MAJOR DEVELOPING TEN-YEAR

WATER STRATEGY by N Greve. Mining

Weekly, Vol 18(15), 27 Apr 2012:12&17.

‘As a result of more than 80% of mining giant Anglo American’s international operations and planned projects being located in water-stressed basins, the company has developed a three-staged, ten-year strategy aimed at reduc-ing its impact on scarce water resources, and ultimately realising ‘zero net water consumption’ by 2030.’

‘Implementation of this strategy will be real-ised through initiatives in three key areas – ope-rational improvement, investment in technology and partnerships with stakeholders.’

‘ “We maintain that engagement and colla-borative efforts are the most immediate and ef-fective ways to create real and sustainable change,” asserts Anglo American sustainable development and energy head Samantha Hoe-Richardson.’ …

‘Meanwhile, as part of its technological de-velopment activities, Anglo American is working to identify appropriate technology solutions and to establish timeframes within which to achieve its proposed 2030 strategic objective, and plans to do this through the establishment of strategic collaborative partnerships.’

‘ “This assertion is particularly relevant to the public–private partnership jointly undertaken by Anglo American’s Thermal Coal business, BHP Billiton Energy Coal South Africa (Becsa), and the eMalahleni local municipality to develop the eMalahleni water reclamation plant,” Hoe-Richardson notes.’

‘Mining Weekly reported in December last year that the eMalahleni plant, in Witbank, Mpumalanga, uses water purification technol-ogy to treat 30 Mℓ/d of contaminated or pollut-ed water to potable quality, and has plans to expand capacity to 50 Mℓ/d by the end of 2013. This rising underground water is sourced from Anglo American Thermal Coal’s Landau, Greenside and Kleinkopje collieries, as well as from Becsa’s disused South Witbank mine. The bulk of this water is then pumped directly into the eMalahleni local municipality’s reser-voirs, meeting 20% of the daily water require-ments of the water-stressed region, home to around 510 000 inhabitants.’

[75%]

12-0484

ONLINE TOOL HELPS COMPANIES AD-

DRESS WATER RISKS. Water Wheel, The,

Vol 11(3), May/Jun 2012:8.

‘World environmental organisation WWF and German development finance institution DEG have launched a global online tool that enables companies and investors to address their water-related risks.’

‘The practical online questionnaire not only identifies water risk in supply chains and invest-ment portfolios, but also provides practical steps to mitigate risk.’

‘Population growth and climate change are set to increase pressure on vital freshwater re-sources, with serious consequences for nature, people and economies. “Water scarcity is a concern for conservationists, communities and companies alike. But simply competing for eve-ry last drop will do no good to anyone. If water users become aware of their water risks – and work together to find solutions – we can ensure that people, nature and business have the wa-ter they need,” said Jim Leape, WWF Interna-tional DG.’

‘Virtually every business sector relies on wa-ter. Yet many executives remain unaware of how water flows through their supply chains, or how the health of the environment where their facilities are located could affect long-term pro-fitability.’ …

`To access the tool, Visit: http://water-riskfilter.panda.org/’

[75%]

26

12-0485

SQUEEZING WATER OUT OF FOG by P

Kotzé. Water Wheel, The, Vol 11(3), May/Jun

2012:16-20.

… ‘The idea of harnessing fog as a source of drinking water has been studied for decades, and it has been implemented with great suc-cess in some countries where conventional source of fresh water, such as wells, lakes, riv-ers and pipelines are unavailable.’

`One of the world’s first successful experi-ments took place in the remote Chilean fishing village of Chungungo located in the Atacama Desert, one of the planet’s driest regions. In 1992, the village’s inhabitants relied on water delivered from distant wells, but after the instal-lation of 80 fog collectors, village residents were enjoying an average of 10 000 ℓ/day of fresh drinking water – an estimated 35 ℓ per individu-al. Consequently, the quality of life in Chungun-go improved dramatically as the freshwater boom led the village to flourish.’

‘In South Africa, the percentage of the po-pulation with access to clean drinking water is said to have increased from 62% in 1994 to 93% in 2011, however this still leaves millions of people without this basic human right. Fur-thermore, South Africa is a semi-arid country with only 35% of its surface areas receiving more than 500 mm rain per year. Fog harvest-ing is not an entirely new method of supplying potable water to remote villages in South Afri-ca, but now some researchers, with the help of funding from the Water Research Commission (WRC), are fine-tuning the concept for local conditions and while they are at it, expanding our knowledge about this meteorological con-dition.’

‘ “One of the biggest advantages of such a system,” says project leader Prof Jana Olivier, “is that the water is available as soon as the nets have been erected.” Where other systems might need to be pumped to users, water from fog harvesting is transported with gravitation, uses no electricity and maintenance is minimal. Fog water harvesting is especially suitable for areas where fog occurs frequently and other sources of water are not available. There are a number of places in South Africa that might benefit from such systems.’ …

[25%]

Political Environment

12-0486 ANC WILL LOSE POWER – MOELETSI MBEKI. Engineering News, Vol 32(19), 25 May 2012:8.

‘Entrepreneur and analyst Moeletsi Mbeki

(…) says the African National Congress will not rule South Africa two or three decades from now. “South Africa, politically, is actually quite unstable,” he tells Sapa, speaking after delivering an address at Stellenbosch Universi-ty. Asked if he thought the ANC would still be in power 20 to 30 years from now, Mbeki, the younger brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, responded: “No, I don't think so.” Asked which party he thought would replace the ANC, he said: “I think there are new political par-ties… [there are] awakenings happening in the country that I think will create [this alternative].” Earlier, he told University of Stellenbosch stu-dents there was potential for the “emergence of a new political party, driven by organised la-bour and business”.’ [100%]

12-0487

BANYAN – AN ABSENCE OF ARCHITEC-

TURE. Economist, The, Vol 403(8784), 12 May

2012:50.

‘North Korea is not the only spectre haunting north-east Asian security’

… ‘America and the others have suspected China of duplicity and of not doing enough to rein in its ally. China in turn has feared that others do not give proper weight to its worries about the consequences of a sudden implo-sion of the North Korean regime, whose sur-vival has become bound up with its nuclear ambitions. South Korea has at times suspect-ed Japan of wanting to thwart the emergence of a unified Korea as a potential regional com-petitor. And Japan has worried that America and South Korea might be too lenient towards the North.’

‘However, as Wang Dong, a scholar at Pe-king University, pointed out at a recent confer-ence organised by the Asan Institute, a think-tank in Seoul, North Korea’s role as a spoiler is

27

just one of four big obstacles to closer security co-operation in north-east Asia. The others are territorial disputes, rising nationalism across the region and, of late, America’s strategic “return to Asia”.’

‘North-east Asia is home to the two great un-resolved conflicts of the cold war, which left the Korean peninsula divided and Taiwan enjoying de facto independence, despite China’s con-tinuing irredentist claim. The region is also riven by many other disputes. Japan never accepted the Soviet Union’s annexation of the four is-lands making up its “Northern Territories” at the end of the second world war. The issue contin-ues to sour relations with Russia. Japan and China quarrel over the Senkaku or Diaoyu is-lands – and the nearby hydrocarbon reserves. In 2010 a clash there involving a Chinese traw-ler caused a serious row. Japan and South Ko-rea contest the rocks known as Takeshima or Dokdo. South Korea and China often clash over fishing disputes in the Yellow Sea. On April 30

th

nine Chinese fishermen were detained after two of them were accused of attacking four South Korean officials.’

‘In each case, governments’ ability to com-promise with foreign powers is hampered by popular nationalism, sometimes fanned by the governments themselves. Acting tough is a cheap way of courting public opinion. …’ …

‘If something cannot go on for ever, it will stop’

‘So, in the words of the Asan Institute’s Leif-Eric Easley, who also teaches at Ewha Univer-sity in Seoul, resolving the crisis over North Ko-rea’s nuclear programme may be a necessary condition for building lasting security in north-east Asia. Even then it would not be sufficient. An optimist would point out that the rest of the region’s security problems are at least half a century old, and have not caused disaster yet. A pessimist would retort that North Korea is only the most obvious instability in a perilous place; that a crisis is inevitable; and that the countries that will have to cope collectively suffer from a terrifying lack of trust.’ [50%]

12-0488

A BRAND TO STAND BEHIND by J Yemma.

Christian Science Monitor, The, Vol 104(25), 7

May 2012:5.

‘Not long after joining the world, we are im-mersed in brand options: first Pampers or Hug-gies, later Coke or Pepsi, Apple or Android, Re-publican or Democrat. Companies spend bil-lions on sharpening brand distinction, touting their brand’s benefits, and trying to win brand

loyalty. Whatever tools are used, however, the one constant for marketing mavens is that im-age and reality have to match. Quality can’t be faked. The product has to deliver.’

‘Nations polish and sell their brands, too. A good brand image facilitates commerce and tourism, and is money in the bank in an interna-tional crisis.’

‘Last month, Brand USA, a new public-private consortium established by Congress, re-leased a video titled “Land of Dreams” to pro-mote the United States as a tourist destination. Rosanne Cash sings amid scenes of gorgeous landscapes and a dazzling variety of people en-joying themselves. The video is notable for what it doesn’t show: flags, presidents, monuments, and military might. After the controversial wars of the past decade, America has badly needed image improvement. Reminding the world of its people, natural beauty, and possibilities seems a promising shift.’

‘Other countries have memorably burnished their brands. Remember “Cool Britannia,” “Israel is Real,” and “Incredible India”? Those were hits because they were human-scaled and genuine.’ ‘Russia is a country that needs brand help. Russia has plenty to work with. It is vast, beauti-ful, and historic. But Russian history has been dominated by czars, commissars, and tough rulers. What always seems invisible are its peo-ple, who over the years have been inconsider-ately lumped together as serfs and proletariat and are only now emerging as citizens.’ … [50%]

12-0489

GREAT LESSONS IN LEADERSHIP. Christian

Science Monitor, The, Vol 104(25), 14 May

2012:33.

… ‘Ideas are always accessible to all’ ‘History can seem random if we see it solely

as relying on great leaders. Ideas, however, are always available – and accessible to any-one, whether they are cultural, spiritual, or eco-nomic. They provide a vision for an entire so-ciety.’

‘America’s Founders knew that the people might see them personally as great and not recognize the great ideas they put forth for a new nation. By 1808, when Americans began a near worship of the late George Washington, Dr. Benjamin Rush wrote to John Adams about how the Founding Fathers had become unas-sailable heroes – and the danger in such think-ing: “There is very little difference in that su-perstition which leads us to believe in what the world calls ‘great men’ and in that which leads us to believe in witches and conjurors.” ’ …

28

‘… the greatest negative feeling Americans have about their leaders is not anger or fear. It is disappointment.’

‘Disappointment usually arises from mis-placed hopes. To prevent that, the best leaders are ones who realize that there is too much to know for one person to know it all. That requires humility, which is usually not found in leaders who exude pride, grandeur, infallibility, and, eventually, entitlement.’

‘America’s political system is set up to en-sure that the people are in charge, mainly through frequent elections. As Tocqueville wrote of the Americans: “They do not recognize any signs of incontestable greatness or superiority in any of their fellows, are continually brought back to their own judgment as the most appar-ent and accessible source of truth.” ’

‘That bit of wisdom can come in handy every election season.’

[50%]

12-0490

WHY CONGRESS IS GRIDLOCKED. Christian

Science Monitor, The, Vol 104(27), 28 May

2012:14.

… ‘1. Lack of leadership from the president’

‘ “The president is always the leader,” said former Rep. Dan Glickman (D) of Kansas, who also served as agriculture secretary in the Clin-ton administration. It’s up to the president to set “the direction of the country….. We can’t talk about the Congress without talking about the president.” ’ …

‘Parties have flaws. But parties really have an interest in coalescing a majority, because they want to win,” says Mr. Weber.’

‘ “Interest groups have a different set of mo-tivations: They want to get more donors and more activists, and they get there by distilling their message down, not by broadening it out. And I think that explains a lot of our politics in this town,” he says of Washington.’ [20%]

12-0491

SA SHOULD NOT BE NEGOTIATING TRADE

PACT WITH INDIA by D MacKay. Engineering

News, Vol 32(12), 6 Apr 2012:65.

… ‘A few months ago, I wrote an article on South Africa’s apparent obsession with negoti-ating trade agreements, and the agreement with India seems to fit the profile of an agreement that should never be signed.’

‘Trade agreements are put in place to help stimulate trade between two (or more) coun-tries, with the agreements being primarily export driven. In other words, each country puts for-ward a list of products its wants to export that the other country currently protects with a cus-toms duty.’ …

‘The problem is that trade agreements al-ways heavily favour the more competitive coun-try and can, in fact, quite seriously injure the less-competitive partner.’ … [28%]

12-0492

REFLECTIONS ON THE SPEAR SAGA by A

Matshiqi. Engineering News, Vol 32(22), 15 Jun

2012:67.

… ‘First, our interpretation of art is partly an attempt to create artists in our own image. That is why we ask questions such as: What is the role of the artist in (our conception of) society and doesn’t the artist have certain responsibili-ties? In fact, to the extent that this furore is about freedom of expression, it occurred to me that, in the homes of this country, children are taught, indoctrinated or threatened into accept-ing limits to their freedom of expression and la-ter in life, especially if the ‘wrong’ political party or leader ascends to power, are expected to be vigorous in claiming this freedom.’

‘Second, what lends meaning to a work of art is a multiplicity of factors, such as gender, race, class, culture, misappropriation of culture, religion, political orientation, collective and his-torical memory, sexual orientation and histori-cal context. It is for this reason that a work of art such as The Spear will, unavoidably, attract a multiplicity of meanings.’

‘But it would be problematic to pretend that all meanings are accorded the same status, given our history, current political reality and po-litical opportunism. As unpalatable as this may sound to some, because we were rudely in-terrupted by colonialism, apartheid and Chris-tianity, the numerical minority has become the cultural majority and its ways of seeing and be-ing, as well as its world view, are privileged over those of others.’

‘In addition, the cultural majority tries to im-pose its social, cultural, political, intellectual and economic Darwinism on the rest of society. But, in some respects, voluntarily and through a process of assimilation and cooption, I am one of those black people about whom it can be safely said that they are part of the cultural ma-jority.’

‘That said, the fact that I am part of the cul-tural majority does not, in any substantive or

29

substantial way, change the racial content of the cultural majority and the cultural minority.’

‘But this kind of analysis must not blind us to another reality – the fact that power in South Af-rica does not reside only in the State and the ruling party.’

‘It resides in a multiplicity of points, such as business, civil society, academia and the me-dia, and the manner in which it is exercised is partly responsible for our partial-sightedness.’ [52%]

12-0493

THE SCIENCE OF RIGHTEOUSNESS by M

Shermer. Scientific American, Vol 306(6), Jun

2012:86.

‘Evolution helps to explain why parties are so tribal and politics so divisive’

‘Which of these two narratives most closely

matches your political perspective?’ ‘Once upon a time people lived in societies

that were unequal and oppressive, where the rich got richer and the poor got exploited. Chat-tel slavery, child labor, economic inequality, rac-ism, sexism and discriminations of all types abounded until the liberal tradition of fairness, justice, care and equality brought about a free and fair society. And now conservatives want to turn back the clock in the name of greed and God.’

‘Once upon a time people lived in societies that embraced values and tradition, where peo-ple took personal responsibility, worked hard, enjoyed the fruits of their labor and through charity helped those in need. Marriage, family, faith, honor, loyalty, sanctity, and respect for au-thority and the rule of law brought about a free and fair society. But then liberals came along and destroyed everything in the name of “pro-gress” and utopian social engineering.’

‘Although we may quibble over the details, political science research shows that the great majority of people fall on a left-right spectrum with these two grand narratives as bookends. And the story we tell about ourselves reflects the ancient tradition of “once upon a time things were bad, and now they’re good thanks to our party” or “once upon a time things were good, but now they’re bad thanks to the other party.” So consistent are we in our beliefs that if you hew to the first narrative, I predict you read the New York Times, listen to progressive talk radio, watch CNN, are pro-choice and anti-gun, adhere to separation of church and state, are in favor of universal health care, and vote for measures to redistribute wealth and tax the

rich. If you lean toward the second narrative, I predict you read the Wall Street Journal, listen to conservative talk radio, watch Fox News, are pro-life and anti-gun control, believe Amer-ica is a Christian nation that should not ban re-ligious expressions in the public sphere, are against universal health care, and vote against measures to redistribute wealth and tax the rich.’

‘Why are we so predictable and tribal in our politics? In his remarkably enlightening book, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Di-vided by Politics and Religion (Pantheon, 2012), University of Virginia psychologist Jonathan Haidt argues that to both liberals and conserva-tives, members of the other party are not just wrong; they are righteously wrong – morally suspect and even dangerous. “Our righteous minds made it possible for human beings,” Haidt argues, “to produce large cooperative groups, tribes, and nations without the glue of kinship. But at the same time, our righteous minds guar-antee that our cooperative groups will always be cursed by moralistic strife.” Thus, he shows, morality binds us together into cohesive groups but blinds us to the ideas and motives of those in other groups.’

‘The evolutionary Rubicon that our species crossed hundreds of thousands of years ago that led to the moral hive mind was a result of “shared intentionality,” which is “the ability to share mental representations of tasks that two or more of [our ancestors] were pursuing to-gether. For example, while foraging, one per-son pulls down a branch while the other plucks the fruit, and they both share the meal.” Chimps tend not to display this behavior, Haidt says, but “when early humans began to share intentions, their ability to hunt, gather, raise children, and raid their neighbors increased ex-ponentially. Everyone on the team now had a mental representation of the task, knew that his or her partners shared the same represen-tation, knew when a partner had acted in a way that impeded success or that hogged the spoils, and reacted negatively to such viola-tions.” Examples of modern political violations include Democrat John Kerry being accused of being a “flip-flopper” for changing his mind and Republican Mitt Romney declaring himself “se-verely conservative” when it was suggested he was wishy-washy in his party affiliation.’

‘Our dual moral nature leads Haidt to con-clude that we need both liberals and conserva-tives in competition to reach a livable middle ground. As philosopher John Stuart Mill noted a century and a half ago: “A party of order or stability, and a party of progress or reform, are both necessary elements of a healthy state of political life.” ’ [100%]

30

Social Environment

12-0494

SA ONE OF 10 UNHAPPIEST COUNTRIES.

News24, http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/

News/SA-one-of-10-unhappiest-countries-20

120620, 20 Jun 2012.

‘South Africa is one of the 10 unhappiest countries in the world – even unhappier than Zimbabwe, according to a report on Wednes-day.’

‘That's according to the Happy Planet Index (HPI), which has been issued by the New Eco-nomics Foundation, a non-governmental orga-nisation.’

‘The report is a new way of determining progress or development, and the researchers said they measured "what mattered" - people's life expectancy, their experience of welfare, the state of their environment and the sustainable use of their resources.’

‘Altogether 151 countries were polled, and South Africa was ranked as number 142 on the list.’ … [50%]

12-0495

DEMOGRAPHY – A NEW SCIENCE OF

POPULATION. Economist, The, Vol 403(8785),

19 May 2012:79-80.

‘World Population Policies: Their Origin,

Evolution, and Impact. By John May. Springer; 339 pages; $179 and £117.’

… ‘Demography is back. Not that its subject matter – the size and structure of populations – ever went away. But from the 1980s to the late 2000s demography retreated to the wings of public debate, a concern mostly of geeks and obsessives. Over the past few years, though, that has started to change. Population science is once more centre-stage, pushed by climate change, which raises worries about the impact so many billions have on the environment of the earth, and food-price spikes, which imply doubts about whether it will be possible to feed them all.’

‘The main concern of demographers in their heyday (the 1970s and 1980s) was high fertility and the total number of the world’s people. This was the period of “The Population Bomb”, a bestseller by a biologist, Paul Ehrlich, which ar-gued that the world could not feed itself. An in-ternational family-planning movement sprang up. Top-down programmes attempted to control the total size of national populations. China’s

one-child policy is the best known and most ex-treme of these.’

‘Now though, as John May, formerly of the World Bank and now Georgetown University, shows in “World Population Policies”, the focus of demographers has switched from the overall size of populations to their composition – that is, to age groups and their relation to one another. Instead of high fertility rates, demographers study ageing, dependency ratios, the “demogra-phic dividend” (a bulge of working-age adults) and distorted sex ratios, which result when mil-lions of parents choose the sex of their children, often by aborting baby daughters.’

‘The result, suggests Mr May, is that demo-graphy is more complex, if less dramatic, than it used to be. Globally the average fertility rate (the number of children a woman can expect during her lifetime) has roughly halved in the past half century, from five in the mid-1950s to 2.5. Only 16% of the world’s population lives in countries where most women have four chil-dren. Falling fertility has taken much of the ur-gency out of the debate about population growth, at least among experts, since it seems to be solving the problem of excessive births (a view criticised by Mr May, who points out that even if fertility has declined, the momentum of change means populations will go on rising for a while).’

‘At the same time demography has become more diverse. Some countries retain extremely high fertility rates (over seven in Niger, more than in 1950); other places have seen fertility fall to ultra-low levels (less than one in Taiwan and Shanghai); and there is everything in be-tween. Whereas demographic policy used to be a matter largely for national governments, a plethora of interest groups has taken over. … Now disputes rage not only between optimists and pessimists but between two different sorts of pessimists – “explosionists” worried about too many people and “implosionists” more con-cerned about falling populations. …’ … [60%]

12-0496

BRAIN DRAIN TO BRAIN GAIN – AFRICA’S

RETURNING DIASPORA. Polity.org.za, http://

www.polity.org.za/article/brain-drain-to-brain-

gain-africas-returning-diaspora-2012-06-13.

‘Africa has steadily gained positive press due to strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and seemingly endless opportunities. Such is the enthusiasm for Afri-ca that comparisons have been drawn be-tween the growing opportunities in Africa and the initial stages of China’s economic growth. Consequently, a new trend has arisen – that of

31

Africans living abroad, returning home to the opportunities offered to them.’

‘This paper discusses the trend of African professionals in the Diaspora repatriating back to Africa. It briefly looks at reasons why African professionals are returning home and provides a brief comparison with Chinese citizens’ own trend of repatriation. In addition, this paper dis-cusses challenges and opportunities for Afri-cans in the Diaspora, who wish to contribute to Africa’s development.’ …

‘Brain drain to brain gain’

‘The term ‘brain drain’ can be understood as a loss of skilled labour due to emigration. In Africa high rates of emigration of the skilled la-bour force has always coincided with discus-sion on development – or lack thereof – in Afri-ca. In a recent publication on Africa and devel-opment, the term ‘brain gain’ is gaining more traction because “For thousands of Africans living overseas and seeking ways to contribute to the development of the continent, initiatives aimed at staunching the outflow of professional expertise are offering new possibilities.” ’

‘Indeed, many initiatives that retain talent within Africa and attract talented African expat-riates are being endorsed and started by Afri-cans abroad. One example of such an initiative is the Digital Diaspora Network Africa, which is an online resource and network for Africans abroad interested in and committed to contrib-uting to Africa’s development. Other initiatives cater to specific African nations, such as the South African non-profit organisation, the Homecoming Revolution, that aims to facilitate the return of South African professionals living abroad. …’ …

‘Conclusion: Africa, the bright continent’

‘Africa is experiencing a turn for the better, especially in terms of how it is represented in international media and economic forecasts. Like China’s sea turtles, Africans living abroad are returning to the continent in great numbers, bringing the skills and knowledge acquired overseas with them. Furthermore, organisa-tions such as the World Bank are also utilising African professionals abroad in their African development programmes. Yet challenges still loom large. Nevertheless, Africans have al-ways shown resilience, and with the combina-tion of expertise possessed by returnee Afri-

cans and local talent, one thing is certain: Afri-ca’s future is bright.’ … [20%]

12-0497

WHOSE SCHOOLS RULE? by W Eulich.

Christian Science Monitor, The, Vol 104(27), 28

May 2012:16-17.

… ‘A new higher education ranking focuses on evaluating quality by countries as a whole, as opposed to specific academic institutions. Universitas 21, an organization of 23 research universities across 15 countries, published its ranking of 48 nations. Here are some of its find-ings:’

‘No. 1 United States’

‘The United States was ranked the “best” country for higher education, ranking in the top five for three of the four components taken into consideration for the overall ranking: fourth in terms of resources, third for environment, first for output, and a somewhat surprising 36th for connectivity. …’

‘No. 2 Sweden’

‘Sweden was ranked second-best worldwide for its higher education system. Similar to other Nordic countries included in the ranking, Swe-den has close to one “world class university” for roughly every million people residing there. Along with Denmark and Switzerland, Sweden makes some of the largest expenditures on re-search and development in higher education, which no doubt contributes to its high position among the pack.’

‘No. 3 Canada’

‘Canada’s higher education system ranked third overall. The country, home to prestigious institutions such as McGill University and the University of Toronto, ranked first in terms of re-sources, with total higher education funding as a percentage of gross domestic product coming in quite high. It provides generous funding for research and development, per student.’ …

‘No. 48: India’

‘This emerging economy ranked last for overall higher education, edged out by Indone-sia, South Africa, Turkey, Croatia, and Mexico.’ … [45%]

32

12-0498

INCURABLE TB? New Scientists, Vol 214

(2864), 12 May 2012:5.

‘Fears over incurable strains of tuberculosis in India have just been reinforced.’

‘People diagnosed in January with “totally drug-resistant TB” (TDR TB) have been inde-pendently retested at the National Tuberculosis Institute in Bangalore. The tests confirm that the bacteria resist all first and second-line drugs used to treat TB – although the World Health Organization says that limitations in the lab tests mean the bacteria are not yet proven un-treatable.’

‘Paul Nunn, head of TB drug-resistance at the WHO, lauded stepped-up efforts by India’s health ministry to identify and treat cases of multidrug-resistant TB, from which the new strains arose. The ministry plans to quadruple its TB budget and re-open a 200-bed TB sana-torium in Mumbai. …’ [75%]

12-0499

SQUEEZING OUT THE DOCTOR. Economist,

The, Vol 403(8787), 2 Jun 2012:25-27.

… ‘The past 150 years have been a golden age for doctors. In some ways, their job is much as it has been for millennia: they exam-ine patients, diagnose their ailments and try to make them better. Since the mid-19

th century,

however, they have enjoyed new eminence. The rise of doctors’ associations and medical schools helped separate doctors from quacks. Licensing and prescribing laws enshrined their status. And as understanding, technology and technique evolved, doctors became more ef-fective, able to diagnose consistently, treat ef-fectively and advise on public-health interven-tions – such as hygiene and vaccination – that actually worked.’

‘This has brought rewards. In developed countries, excluding America, doctors with no speciality earn about twice the income of the average worker, according to McKinsey, a consultancy. America’s specialist doctors earn ten times America’s average wage. A medical degree is a universal badge of respectability. Others make a living. Doctors save lives, too.’

‘With the 21st century certain to see soaring

demand for health care, the doctors’ star might seem in the ascendant still. By 2030, 22% of people in the OECD club of rich countries will be 65 or older, nearly double the share in 1990. China will catch up just six years later. About half of American adults already have a chronic condition, such as diabetes or hypertension,

and as the world becomes richer the diseases of the rich spread farther. … Last year the United Nations held a summit on health (only the second in its history) that gave warning about the rising toll of chronic disease world-wide.’

‘But this demand for health care looks un-likely to be met by doctors in the way the past century’s was. For one thing, to treat the 21

st

century’s problems with a 20th-century ap-

proach to health care would require an impos-sible number of doctors. For another, caring for chronic conditions is not what doctors are best at. For both these reasons doctors look set to become much less central to health care – a process which, in some places, has already started.’ ‘Make do and mend’

‘Most countries suffer from a simple mis-match: the demand for health care is rising faster than the supply of doctors. The problem is most acute in the developing world, though rich countries are not immune (…). It does not help that health care is notoriously inefficient. Whereas America’s overall labour productivity has increased by 1.8% annually for the past two decades, the figure for health care has de-clined by 0.6% each year, according to Robert Kocher of the Brookings Institution and Nikhil Sahni, until recently of Harvard University. But it is in poor countries that interest in alternative ways of training doctors and in alternatives to doctors themselves has produced the most in-novation.’

‘One approach to making doctors more effi-

cient is to focus what they do. India is home to some of the world’s most exciting models along this line, argues Nicolaus Henke of McKinsey,

33

who leads the consultancy’s work with health systems. Britain has 27.4 doctors for every 10,000 patients. India has just six. With so few doctors, it is changing the way it uses them.’ … [25%]

12-0500

SAFER PREGNANCIES by H LaFranchi.

Christian Science Monitor, The, Vol 104(27), 28

May 2012:17.

… ‘Maternal mortality across the globe has been cut nearly in half over the past two de-cades, according to a new report issued May 16 by the United Nations and the World Bank. The report finds that 287,000 women died in preg-nancy in 2010 – a drop when compared with the 543,000 women who died in pregnancy in 1990.’

‘The analysis of maternal health over the past two decades found the most progress in East Asia, with India and sub-Saharan Africa pulling up the rear.’

‘In unveiling the report, “Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990-2010,” UN officials in New York said the frustrating aspect of the lower-but-still-too-high mortality figures is that the road to con-siderably fewer deaths is not a mystery.’

‘ “We know exactly what to do to prevent maternal deaths: improve access to voluntary family planning, invest in health workers with midwifery skills, and ensure access to emer-gency obstetric care when complications arise,” said Babatunde Osotimehin, executive director of the UN Population Fund.’ … [80%]

12-0501

SEA CHANGE by M Creamer. Mining Weekly,

Vol 18(19), 18 May 2012:7&16.

… ‘Labour dynamics are going through a sea change with the emergence of the Associa-tion of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) to rival the dominance of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), says Lonmin CEO Ian Farmer.’

‘Farmer, who heads South Africa’s third-largest platinum-mining company, foresees the rivalry for membership between the unions po-tentially leading to an increase in costs and dis-ruptions to production.’

‘As a result of a third of the employees at the Karee mining division becoming AMCU mem-bers, Lonmin has agreed to confer limited or-ganisational rights on the AMCU to reflect its membership position.’

‘Karee was the scene of last year’s strike, which led to 8 000 mineworkers being dismis-sed and then largely rehired, and it was through the dismissal and rehiring process at Karee that the NUM lost membership to the AMCU.’

‘The AMCU was also pe[r]ceived to be be-hind the prolonged and violent labour unrest at Implats’ Impala Platinum mine, in Rustenburg, in February.’

‘At the Karee mine, one-third are now repre-sented by the AMCU, one-third have chosen not to be represented and only one-third are now represented by the NUM.’

‘ “Clearly, there’s competition for member-ship between the two main unions,” Farmer dis-closes.’

‘Lonmin has thus agreed to a limited recog-nition agreement with the AMCU.’

‘ “The area that worries me immensely is when we have intimi[d]ation and violence that surrounds the competition for membership and we, as a company, have taken a view that we’ll adopt a zero-tolerance approach to those that practise intimidation and violence and the South African law enforcement agencies have been fully supportive of this approach.’

‘ “Employees can choose their own repre-sentation. We will work professionally with them and include them in discussions as appropriate for the membership percentage they hold, but we will not tolerate intimidation, violence and putting the lives of our employees at risk,” Far-mer says.’

‘Although the AMCU recruitment at Lonmin operations other than Karee appears to be rel-atively insignificant at this stage, covert action has tended in the past to precede overt re-cruitment drives.’ … [35%]

12-0502

GLOBAL ILLICIT DRUG USERS TO RISE

25% BY 2050, SAYS UN by A Travis. Guardi-

an.co.uk, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/

2012/jun/26/global-drug-users-rise-un, 68 Jun

2012:12.

… ‘The global number of illicit drug users is likely to grow by 25% by 2050, with the bulk of the increase expected to take place among the rapidly rising urban populations of developing countries, according to the United Nations.’

‘The UN's office on drugs and crime (UNODC) also predicts that the biggest growth area in illicit drug use is most likely among women as cultural barriers disappear and gen-der equality improves.’

‘The UN's annual drugs report published on Tuesday forecasts a decline in the prominence of heroin and cocaine as consumption in North

34

America and western Europe falls sharply and the "burden of the global drug problem" shifts from developed to developing countries.’

‘In an unusual attempt to forecast future drug trends, the UN report suggests that while cannabis will remain the most widely used ille-gal substance, the biggest increase is likely to be seen in the use of synthetic drugs including "legal highs" and the non-medical use of pre-scription drugs "diverted from legal supplies".’

‘The annual snapshot of drug use says that around 230 million people, one in every 20, took illicit drugs at least once in 2010. There are about 27 million problem drug users, main-ly chronic heroin or cocaine users, represent-ing about 0.6% of the world's population.’

‘The UN says that production of opium soared by 61% in Afghanistan from 3,600 tonnes in 2010, when plant disease wiped out almost half the crop yields and triggered steep price rises, to 5,800 tonnes in 2011. Global opium production reached 7,000 tonnes in 2011. Heroin use in North America and Europe appears to be stable or shrinking. The UN says that in Africa and Asia, which now account for 70% of heroin users, there is a clear lack of data but it is possible there is increasing but undetected patterns of use. Burma remains the world's second largest poppy-crop grower and opium producer after Afghanistan.’

‘It also confirms the sharp decline in co-caine production, with an 18% drop in the total area under coca bush cultivation since 2007 with the steepest decline in Colombia. This has been accompanied by a significant fall in co-caine consumption in North America. In Eu-rope cocaine use remains stable but continues to rival use in the US and Canada.’

‘However, the decline in heroin and cocaine has been matched by rising levels of synthetic drugs production, including the production of "legal highs", which are synthesised in labora-tories to imitate the effects of more traditional drugs.’

‘The UN report also confirms the rise of the non-medical use of prescription drugs, espe-cially in Australia and the US, where their con-sumption is now more widespread than any other illicit substance, apart from cannabis.’ …

‘ "As drug use is linked to urbanisation and the urban population in developing countries is expected to double between 2011 and 2050 while remaining largely stable in the developed countries, a much more marked growth in the number of illicit drug users can be expected in the developing countries. This suggests that a relative shift of the burden of the global drug problem from the developed countries to the currently developing countries will continue over the coming decade," it says. Yury Fedo-tov, UNODC's executive director, said that

heroin, cocaine and other drugs continued to kill around 200,000 people a year, shattering families and bringing insecurity and the spread of HIV.’

‘ "The public health aspects of prevention, treatment, rehabilitation and reintegration all have to be recognised as key elements in the global strategy to reduce drug demand," he said.’

‘An alternative report by the Global Com-mission on Drug Policy also published on Tuesday calls for drug decriminalisation and says that the "global war on drugs" is driving the HIV pandemic.’ … [80%]

12-0503

URGENT PRIORITY by T Creamer. Engineer-

ing News, Vol 32(21), 8 Jun 2012:12.

… ‘Africans aged between 15 and 24 cur-rently comprise 60% of the continent’s unem-ployed, with 22-million of those 40-million un-employed youths having abandoned the search for a job, the latest ‘African Economic Outlook’ warns.’

‘The 2012 report, which contains country notes on 53 countries, urges African govern-ments to pursue programmes and incentives that will help facilitate job creation and the ac-quisition of new skills among young Africans, whose numbers are set to double to around 400-million by 2045, from 200-million current-ly.’

‘Cowritten by the African Development Bank (AfDB), the OECD Development Centre, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (Uneca) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the 293-page study has Promoting Youth Unemployment as its main theme.’

‘Its release comes amid strong disagree-ment between South Africa’s official opposition, the Democratic Alliance, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) over a National Treasury proposal to implement a youth wage subsidy to incentivise employers to take on young workers. The report notes that South Africa had a youth unemployment rate of 48% in 2009, compared with 19% for adults.’

‘Nearly two years ago, the South African government proposed a youth wage subsidy for workers under the age of 30 whose salaries are below the personal income tax threshold. It will be paid for a maximum of two years and have a maximum value of R12 000.’

‘However, the subsidy has not been imple-mented, with Cosatu warning that it could create a dual labour market, which would undermine worker prospects and rights.’

35

‘President Jacob Zuma has said government still intends implementing the scheme, but that its final design is still being negotiated.’

‘Business Unity South African argues that the scheme “offers more advantages for youth employment than many other short-term job creation initiatives and could create over 400 000 jobs”. It has also pointed to the success of similar schemes used in other countries in im-proving youth access to the labour market.’

‘The ‘African Economic Outlook 2012’ do-cument asserts that youth unemployment fig-ures will increase unless Africa moves swiftly to make youth employment a priority. It notes, too, that youths can present a significant threat to social cohesion and political stability if they do not secure decent living conditions.’

‘ “The continent is experiencing jobless growth”, AfDB chief economist Mthuli Ncube says. “That is an unacceptable reality on a con-tinent with such an impressive pool of youth, talent and creativity.” ’

‘Creating productive employment for Africa’s rapidly growing young population is an im-mense challenge but also the key to future prosperity, the authors say.’

‘The report notes that, between 2000 and 2008, Africa created only 16-million jobs for young people aged between 15 and 24, “de-spite world-topping economic growth rates, and a better-educated youth” – six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa from 2001 to 2010.’

‘Youth employment, the authors assert, is largely a problem of quality in low-income coun-tries and one of quantity in middle- income countries.’ …

‘The biggest obstacle is insufficient demand for their labour, while the lack of skills and of knowledge about where to find jobs, attitudes by employers and labour regulations also present hurdles.’

‘A survey shows employer hesitations about hiring young job seekers to be a serious obsta-cle for the youth in many African countries. Em-ployers prefer candidates with experience and waiting for those young people who already have some experience allows employers to benefit from the training that job seekers might have received elsewhere.’ …

[48%]

Technological Environment

12-0504

DST AND ABSA TO COLLABORATE ON

TECHNOLOGY. Engineering News, Vol 32(11),

30 Mar 2012:6.

‘Science and Technology Minister Naledi Pandor (…) says she hopes the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with banking group Absa sent out a signal that go-vernment was serious about working with the private sector to compete more effectively in the global economy. Pandor and Absa CE for retail and business banking Bobby Malabie signed the MoU, which is aimed at developing strategic programmes to stimulate growth and development, in Pretoria. Areas of cooperation include human capital development, technolo-gy commercialisation, renewable energy tech-nologies, information communication technolo-gy (ICT), venture capital creation and enterprise development, as well as agricultural business development. The Minister says the develop-ment of the Department of Science and Tech-nology's growing portfolio of public-private partnerships would assist in addressing the in-novation rift in selected technology platforms, such as ICT, information security and renewa-ble-energy technologies. "This partnership is timely as it occurs at a time when government is seeking sustainable strategies to increase in-vestment in research and development (R&D) and stimulate business to do the same,” she states. Pandor says significant potential exists in the Internet market in Africa.’ [100%]

12-0505

VIRTUAL VALUE by S Burger. Engineering

News, Vol 32(11), 30 Mar 2012:18.

… ‘The High Commission of India in South Africa is committed to expanding the ties be-tween the two countries in the vital information technology (IT) sector, while the South African

36

government is committed to expanding the ap-plication of IT to various sectors, says High Commissioner of India to South Africa Virenda Gupta.’

‘The High Commission aims to work closely with the South African government to bring In-dian and South African IT companies together so that they can support economic growth and employment in both countries.’

‘ “We are living in an age of rapid technolog-ical change. The rate of change is unprece-dented and significant technological advance-ments have taken place. Within 10 to 15 years, many aspects of our lives will be governed by IT and the application of IT will increase manyfold, much of which we have yet to imagine. Gov-ernment has not remained unaffected by these changes,” he says.’

‘The High Commission is promoting trade and services, specifically for information and communication technologies in the form of bi-lateral investments and joint ventures, as well as sharing knowledge and expertise between India and South Africa.’

‘“We want to create value and partnerships. We want Indian companies to cooperate and take solid South African partners. I hope to see a very large Indian IT company joining with a large South African group to create a solid joint venture, which will create real synergies. This is how technology and skills are transferred,” says Gupta.’

‘ “IT has become a significant growth cata-lyst for our economy and, while it is fuelling our economy, this industry has also made positive improvements to the lives of our citizens by making an active and direct contribution to the various socioeconomic parameters, such as employment and education, standards of living and diversity,” he emphasises.’

‘The Indian government has already under-taken a number of government-to-government initiatives, specifically the use of training insti-tutes in India by hundreds of South African go-vernment officials and others.’

‘ “The crux is IT education and is an area where India can contribute significantly. A lead-ing Indian IT training company, NIIT, is operat-ing several small centres in South Africa, train-ing hundreds of people a year. People trained in IT applications will contribute to the economy in a positive way,” adds Gupta.’

‘ “However, at government level, you can on-ly scratch the surface and the requirements are so huge that they cannot be met merely at the level of government-to-government cooperation, which is why we aim to expand our bilateral co-operation,” he explains.’

‘There are already a number of Indian com-panies operating in the commercial space in South Africa, but Gupta believes that coopera-

tion between Indian and South African IT com-panies, as well as between IT and non-IT com-panies, should be augmented and expanded.’

‘Further, South African companies which are looking to expand operations or enter new Afri-can markets will find willing and viable partners in Indian IT companies, he notes.’ …

[75%]

12-0506

CANCER COMBATANT by M Wait. Engineer-

ing News, Vol 32(21), 8 Jun 2012:16-17.

… ‘The South African Cancer Association (Cansa) estimates that at least 100 000 people are diagnosed with cancer in the country each year. This equates to a lifetime risk of one in six persons being diagnosed.’

‘Cansa head of health Professor Michael Herbst says the 2004 data from the National Cancer Registry shows that 55 772 people were diagnosed officially with cancer each year, but that many diagnoses from the private health sector are not included in this figure.’

‘Statistics from the Medical Research Coun-cil, which were last updated in 2010, show that lung cancer is responsible for the most deaths in both males and females, with breast cancer second. Other cancers that have been respon-sible for significant numbers of deaths in the country include oesophageal, cervical, liver, colorectal, prostate, stomach and pancreatic cancers, and leukemia.’

‘However, compared with other countries, South Africa’s cancer diagnosis rate is still fairly low, with the highest cancer rate for men and women found in Denmark. In 2008, about 326 people in 100 000 were diagnosed in that coun-try, compared with South Africa’s 202 in 100 000 for the same year.’

‘Fighting Back’

‘Globally, the search for cures has been frus-tratingly slow. In addition, because cancer is a class of diseases, some believe it is unlikely that there will ever be a single remedy. The search for a so-called ‘silver bullet’ is, thus, in-creasingly being displaced by more complex treatment regimes.’

‘Nevertheless, South African biopharmaceu-ticals manufacturing company Genius Biothera-peutics is hoping to play a role in dealing with the cancer scourge by researching and deve-loping new treatment methods.’

‘Speaking to Engineering News, Genius Bio-therapeutics CEO Ismet Amod explains that currently the treatment of cancers requires cy-tostatic chemotherapy, whereby chemical-based drugs target rapidly dividing cells, includ-

37

ing tumour cells and rapidly dividing cells, such as hair follicles and cells in bone marrow and the digestive tract. “As a result, patients under-going chemotherapy suffer significant side ef-fects and a poor quality of life,” he notes.’

‘The company, which is 49.5%-owned by black-owned and black-controlled investment holding company Sekunjalo, has, through re-search, proven that the use of dendritic cell vac-cines may offer a viable alternative through the use of the patient’s own immune cells, which would have been primed to target specific can-cers.’

‘ “Through the use of the patient’s own den-dritic cells, the rejection of cells is eliminated and the cells are programmed and activated to target the tumour in a more effective and safer manner than current techniques. This also translates into fewer side effects as opposed to radiation or chemotherapy,” Amod says.’

‘The treatment therapy is already being used by a number of companies. “For example, the treatment is already used by Nasdaq-listed bio-technology company Dendreon for the treat-ment of prostate cancer,” he points out.’ … [60%]

12-0507

NUCLEAR ENERGY – JOBS FILLIP by I Es-

terhuizen. Mining Weekly, Vol 18(16), 4 May

2012:10.

… ‘Expanding South Africa’s nuclear power industry would boost job creation, particularly in the uranium mining and construction sectors, Energy Minister Dipuo Peters said at the Na-tional Union of Mineworkers' (NUM’s) Nuclear Energy Workshop, in Midrand, north of Johan-nesburg, last week.’

‘The Minister was reacting to concerns raised by the NUM that a focus on nuclear power would lead to the systematic phasing out of coal, which is a key job-creating industry, as the country’s main energy source.’

‘South Africa plans to generate 9.6 GW of electricity from nuclear energy by 2030. The Integrated Resources Plan for electricity also calls for 6.3 GW of new base-load coal capaci-ty.’

‘Peters told the NUM forum that localisation and job creation were central to the country’s new nuclear build programme.’

‘Not only would nuclear expansion create mining and construction jobs, it would also open opportunities in the scientific sphere. "We have sufficient local capacity in terms of scientists and scientific companies and we can capitalise from our own intellectual capacity instead of sourcing from abroad," she pointed out.’

‘The Minister added that partnerships with local industry players and nuclear-intensive countries, such as Japan, would be important in developing a safe and efficient nuclear sector in South Africa.’ …

‘NUM deputy general-secretary Oupa Ko-mane said the nuclear sector had a poor re-cord in terms of transformation and beneficia-tion.’

‘ "In the revival of this abandoned industry the focus must be on skills development, knowledge transfer and transformation. It is im-perative that any increase in the South African nuclear energy industry should be coupled to the beneficiation of our uranium resources," he urged.’

‘Komane further warned about the possible impact of the high capital costs associated with developing nuclear infrastructure. "Analysis has shown that capital intensity leads to growth in unemployment, further to that the question also stands of how this capital cost would impact on electricity prices." ’

‘But Peters said that the long-term benefits of nuclear energy should be considered, adding that nuclear allowed for supply security, cheap-er overall energy costs and a decreased carbon footprint.’ …

‘In terms of policy, Komane said that a num-ber of policy implications had to be considered in a shift to nuclear technology.’

‘ "Government must ensure that the energy mix, as finally approved, has a proactive indus-trial policy that can ensure job creation by sup-porting more labour-intensive production and by nurturing technology with a high degree of sub-stitutability of labour for capital," he stated.’

‘Further, the Minister said it was important that the local nuclear power generation sector remained State-owned.’

[90%]

12-0508

THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. Eco-

nomist, The, Vol 403(8781), 21 Apr 2012:13.

… ‘The first industrial revolution began in Britain in the late 18

th century, with the mecha-

nisation of the textile industry. Tasks previously done laboriously by hand in hundreds of weav-ers’ cottages were brought together in a single cotton mill, and the factory was born. The se-cond industrial revolution came in the early 20

th

century, when Henry Ford mastered the moving assembly line and ushered in the age of mass production. The first two industrial revolutions made people richer and more urban. Now a third revolution is under way. Manufacturing is going digital. As this week’s special report ar-

38

gues, this could change not just business, but much else besides.’

‘A number of remarkable technologies are converging: clever software, novel materials, more dexterous robots, new processes (notably three-dimensional printing) and a whole range of web-based services. The factory of the past was based on cranking out zillions of identical products: Ford famously said that car-buyers could have any colour they liked, as long as it was black. But the cost of producing much smaller batches of a wider variety, with each product tailored precisely to each customer’s whims, is falling. The factory of the future will focus on mass customisation – and may look more like those weavers’ cottages than Ford’s assembly line.’

‘Towards a third dimension’

‘The old way of making things involved tak-ing lots of parts and screwing or welding them together. Now a product can be designed on a computer and “printed” on a 3D printer, which creates a solid object by building up succes-sive layers of material. The digital design can be tweaked with a few mouseclicks. The 3D printer can run unattended, and can make many things which are too complex for a tradi-tional factory to handle. In time, these amazing machines may be able to make almost any-thing, anywhere – from your garage to an Afri-can village.’

‘The applications of 3D printing are espe-cially mind-boggling. Already, hearing aids and high-tech parts of military jets are being printed in customised shapes. The geography of sup-ply chains will change. An engineer working in the middle of a desert who finds he lacks a certain tool no longer has to have it delivered from the nearest city. He can simply download the design and print it. The days when projects ground to a halt for want of a piece of kit, or when customers complained that they could no longer find spare parts for things they had bought, will one day seem quaint.’

‘Other changes are nearly as momentous. New materials are lighter, stronger and more durable than the old ones. Carbon fibre is re-placing steel and aluminium in products ranging from aeroplanes to mountain bikes. New tech-niques let engineers shape objects at a tiny scale. Nanotechnology is giving products en-hanced features, such as bandages that help heal cuts, engines that run more efficiently and crockery that cleans more easily. Genetically engineered viruses are being developed to make items such as batteries. And with the in-ternet allowing ever more designers to collabo-rate on new products, the barriers to entry are falling. Ford needed heaps of capital to build his colossal River Rouge factory; his modern equi-

valent can start with little besides a laptop and a hunger to invent.’

‘Like all revolutions, this one will be disrup-tive. Digital technology has already rocked the media and retailing industries, just as cotton mills crushed hand looms and the Model T put farriers out of work. Many people will look at the factories of the future and shudder. They will not be full of grimy machines manned by men in oily overalls. Many will be squeaky clean – and al-most deserted. Some carmakers already pro-duce twice as many vehicles per employee as they did only a decade or so ago. Most jobs will not be on the factory floor but in the offices nearby, which will be full of designers, engi-neers, IT specialists, logistics experts, market-ing staff and other professionals. The manufac-turing jobs of the future will require more skills. Many dull, repetitive tasks will become obsolete: you no longer need riveters when a product has no rivets.’

‘The revolution will affect not only how things are made, but where. Factories used to move to low-wage countries to curb labour costs. But la-bour costs are growing less and less important: a $499 first-generation iPad included only about $33 of manufacturing labour, of which the final assembly in China accounted for just $8. Off-shore production is increasingly moving back to rich countries not because Chinese wages are rising, but because companies now want to be closer to their customers so that they can re-spond more quickly to changes in demand. And some products are so sophisticated that it helps to have the people who design them and the people who make them in the same place. The Boston Consulting Group reckons that in areas such as transport, computers, fabricated metals and machinery, 10-30% of the goods that Amer-ica now imports from China could be made at home by 2020, boosting American output by $20 billion-55 billion a year.’

‘The shock of the new’

‘Consumers will have little difficulty adapting to the new age of better products, swiftly deli-vered. Governments, however, may find it hard-er. Their instinct is to protect industries and companies that already exist, not the upstarts that would destroy them. They shower old facto-ries with subsidies and bully bosses who want to move production abroad. They spend billions backing the new technologies which they, in their wisdom, think will prevail. And they cling to a romantic belief that manufacturing is superior to services, let alone finance.’

‘None of this makes sense. The lines be-tween manufacturing and services are blurring. Rolls-Royce no longer sells jet engines; it sells the hours that each engine is actually thrusting an aeroplane through the sky. Governments

39

have always been lousy at picking winners, and they are likely to become more so, as legions of entrepreneurs and tinkerers swap designs online, turn them into products at home and market them globally from a garage. As the re-volution rages, governments should stick to the basics: better schools for a skilled workforce, clear rules and a level playing field for enter-prises of all kinds. Leave the rest to the revolu-tionaries.’ [100%]

12-0509

HEAVENLY SPIN-OFF by N Odendaal. Engi-

neering News, Vol 32(19), 25 May 2012:10&83.

… ‘State-owned telecommunications group Broadband Infraco aims to use the bulk of its 11.4% capacity on the West African Cable Sys-tem (Wacs) to support key projects, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), newly appointed CEO Puleng Sejanamane has said.’

‘About 70% of Broadband Infraco’s own ca-pacity on the cable, which went live earlier this month, will be directed to key scientific projects of national interest. The remaining 30% capacity will support other government projects that re-quire international capacity and will also be available commercially for smaller players in the industry.’

‘Wacs – a 14 500 km undersea fibre-optic cable linking South Africa to the UK along the West African coast – is an open access cable developed by a 14-party consortium, which in-cludes MTN, Vodacom, Broadband Infraco, Ca-ble & Wireless and Tata Communications.’

‘The $650-million project offers a design ca-pacity of 5.12 Tb/s and is expected to increase South Africa’s broadband capacity by over 500 Gb/s, adding more than 40% to South Africa’s existing international broadband capacity.’ …

‘ “The sheer volume of capacity now being delivered will contribute to further fostering broadband development, giving impetus to Afri-can economies and helping to increase the standard and quality of life of its citizens,” says Wacs management committee chairperson Adriaan Moss.’

‘Economic growth and job creation hinge on seeing a step change in data connectivity. How-ever, international connectively plays a small role in the overall cost of delivering a megabyte of data through mobile communications, says Vodacom chief technology officer Andries Del-port, adding that the benefits may not be imme-diately obvious.’

‘Many of South Africa’s telecommunications companies are preparing to roll out infrastruc-

ture initiatives to maximise their use of the latest submarine cable to light up on the country’s shores.’ …

‘Vodacom, which holds a 9.5% stake in Wacs, is “investing billions of rands” in rolling out new base stations and connecting these in-to the network through fibre-optic cables. Vodacom is also connected to the Eastern Afri-ca Submarine Cable System (Eassy), Seacom and SAT3 undersea cables.’

‘MTN, which has invested over R90-million and holds about 11% of Wacs capacity, will, over the next five years, build long-distance ter-restrial fibre infrastructure from Cape Town to Johannesburg, and from Johannesburg to Dur-ban. The group will then roll out fibre-to-the-enterprise and fibre-to-the-home.’

‘MTN’s operations in Nigeria and Ghana will also directly benefit from the Wacs cable. MTN is also connected to Wacs, Eassy and the Eu-rope India Gateway (EIG) submarine cable through investments of over R260-million. MTN also holds small investments in, besides others, Seacom and SAT3.’

‘Telkom is undertaking a network transfor-mation project, which entails replacing 2 700 older-generation cabinets with 3 700 remote multiservice access nodes over a five-year pe-riod.’ … [35%]

12-0510

PLANET PLUNDER by M Creamer. Mining

Weekly, Vol 18(17), 11 May 2012:8-9.

… ‘The platinum patch belongs to Southern Africans, or so we thought until new US aspirant space miner Planetary Resources burst on to the scene at the Museum of Flight in Seattle with a plan to mine platinum-group metals (PGMs) in outer space.’

‘The ambitious US start-up, backed with funding from high-profile investors like Google CEO Larry Page and deep-sea exploring film-maker James Cameron, see one near-earth as-teroid as potentially containing more platinum than has been mined in the world so far.’

‘What’s more, leading light and human spaceflight pioneer Eric Anderson, the compa-ny’s co-founder and co-chairperson, has com-mitted Planetary Resources to having its first prospecting telescopes in space in the next 24 months.’

‘Aerospace engineer Anderson is working with co-founder, co-chairperson and private spaceflight funder Dr Peter Diamandis to turn science fiction into science fact.’ … [10%]

40

Subject Index

A Africa investment ....................................... 12-0449/0463 oil potential ......................................... 12-0468/0471 water ............................................................. 12-0480 reverse migration .......................................... 12-0496 Turkey investment ........................................ 12-0448 youth unemployment .................................... 12-0503 Africa/Brazil investment ...................................... 12-0450 AMCU ................................................................. 12-0501 ANC, political future ............................................ 12-0486 Arctic ................................................................... 12-0467

B Brazil/Africa investment ...................................... 12-0450 Broadband .......................................................... 12-0509 Business, social impact ...................................... 12-0445

C Cancer treatment ................................................ 12-0506 China in Africa .......................................... 12-0464/0465 China, gold ......................................................... 12-0457 Climate change................................................... 12-0467 Comparative advantage; .................................... 12-0446 Chronic diseases ................................................ 12-0499

D Digital revolution; ................................................ 12-0508 Drug use, illicit .................................................... 12-0502

E Economic growth, Africa .................................... 12-0452 Education ............................................................ 12-0462 Engineering ........................................................ 12-0462 Environmental boundaries ................................. 12-0473

F Farming, sustainable .......................................... 12-0455 Fog harvesting, SA ............................................. 12-0485 Fracking .............................................................. 12-0478 Fracturing, SA, hydraulic .................................... 12-0479 Future: oil and gas .............................................. 12-0469

G GEO 5 report ...................................................... 12-0477 Gini coefficient, G20 ........................................... 12-0460 Gold .................................................................... 12-0457 Great political leadership .................................... 12-0489 Green economy .................................................. 12-0475 Green growth ...................................................... 12-0472 Growth & development ...................................... 12-0504

H Happy Planet Index ............................................ 12-0494 Health, cancer treatment .................................... 12-0506 Higher education ranking ................................... 12-0497 Hydraulic fracturing, SA ...................................... 12-0479

I Illicit drug use ...................................................... 12-0502 Immigration ......................................................... 12-0462 Inclusive Wealth Indicator .................................. 12-0454 India/SA technology cooperation ....................... 12-0505 Industrial revolution, third ................................... 12-0508 Infrastructure ...................................................... 12-0462 Johannesburg ............................................... 12-0461 transport ........................................................ 12-0458 Innovation & strategy .......................................... 12-0444 Investment Africa ................................................... 12-0449/0463 East Africa; West Africa ................................ 12-0453

J Jobs, nuclear ...................................................... 12-0507

L Landscape science ............................................. 12-0474 Leadership, presidential ..................................... 12-0490

M Maternal mortality ............................................... 12-0500 Migration, Africa, reverse ................................... 12-0496 Mining scenarios, drivers ......................................... 12-0466 state intervention .......................................... 12-0456 water ............................................................. 12-0483 water shortage .............................................. 12-0482 Mortality, maternal .............................................. 12-0500

N Nations as brands............................................... 12-0488 New labour union, AMCU ................................... 12-0501 North-east Asian security ................................... 12-0487 Nuclear, jobs ....................................................... 12-0507 O

Offshore back-sharing ........................................ 12-0446 Oil and gas, future .............................................. 12-0469 Oil potential, Africa ................................... 12-0468/0471

P Physicians........................................................... 12-0499 Platinum .............................................................. 12-0510 Political future, ANC ........................................... 12-0486 Political reality and opportunism ........................ 12-0492 Presidential leadership ....................................... 12-0490

R Renewable energy ............................................. 12-0470 Righteous political perspectives ......................... 12-0493 Rio+20 ...................................................... 12-0475/0476 Risk, economic growth, Africa ............................ 12-0452

S SA, gateway to Africa ......................................... 12-0451 SA, special economic zones .............................. 12-0447

41

SA/India technology cooperation ....................... 12-0505 Scenarios, mining ............................................... 12-0466 Science of populations ....................................... 12-0495 Shale gas, fracking ............................................. 12-0478 Sips ..................................................................... 12-0458 Space mining ...................................................... 12-0510 State intervention; Mining ................................... 12-0456 Sustainable farming ............................................ 12-0455

T TB ....................................................................... 12-0498 Third industrial revolution ................................... 12-0508 Total drug-resistant TB ....................................... 12-0498 Tourism ............................................................... 12-0459 Trade agreements .............................................. 12-0491

Transport, infrastructure ..................................... 12-0458 Turkey investment, Africa ................................... 12-0448

U Unemployment, youth Africa .............................. 12-0503

W Water, Africa ................................................................. 12-0480

Water risks, online tool ................................................. 12-0484

Water shortage ............................................................. 12-0481

Y Youth unemployment, Africa .............................. 12-0503

42

SERIALS SCANNED

A Absolute Energy Africa Insight Africa Institute of South Africa Africa Environment & Wildlife African Business

African Energy African Security Review AgriNews AIDS Analysis Africa AIDS Bulletin AlertNet AllAfrica.com American Management Association International American Scientist Analysis & Advice Associated Press Automotive Engineering

B Balaton Bulletin BBC News Big Think Bizcommunity.com Bloomberg Businessweek

Bulletin on Ageing Bulletin van Statistieke Bureau of Market Research Business & Financial News Business Day Business Horizons Business Management Business Report Business Week

C California Management Review Canadian Broadcasting Corporation Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Centre for Policy Studies CEP Christian Science Monitor

Civil Engineering CNN.com Communications of the ACM Corporate Government: International Journal of Business in Society Critical Arts CSD/SWO Bulletin

D 25 Degrees in Africa Daily Maverick Democracy in Action Demographic Yearbook Development Research Insights Development Southern Africa Dialogue Dialogue on Globalization Disease Control Priorities Project

E Earth Policy News Economist, The

EIS-AFRICA Employee Relations Energy Management News Energy News EngineerIT Engineering News

ENN Environment Today Environmental Impact Management Environmental Progress Environmental Science & Technology Epidemiological Comments ESI Africa Issue Ethical Corporation European Management Journal

F FAO Media Centre Fast Facts Finance Week Financial Mail Financial Times Focus Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations Foreign Report Foresight Fortune International Foresight Institute From poverty to power Future Survey Futures Futures Research Quarterly Futurics Futurific Futurist, The

G Global Dialogue Global Insight Globe and Mail, The Goddard Institute Google.com Greenbiz.com Green & Gold Guardian.co.uk

H Harvard Business Review HIVandHepatitis.com HR Future HSRC Review Human Resource Management Review

I ID21 Communicating Development Research IDP Monograph Series IDS Devline Web IEE Manufacturing Engineer

43

IEE News IEE Power & Energy Magazine IEE Review IEE Solutions IEEE Communications Magazine IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine IEEE Industry Applications Magazine IEEE Internet Computing IEEE Power & Energy magazine IEEE Spectrum IEEE AES Systems Magazine IFPRI Forum IFPRI: Progresa Imiesa

Independent, The Indicator South Africa Industrial Engineer In Focus Forum Information Technology Information Update Infospec Inside AISA Inside Multimedia Insights Institute for Strategic Studies, Univ Pretoria Interchange Intelligence Inter Press Services News International Family Planning Perspectives International Food Policy Research Institute International Journal of Management International Journal of Strategic Management International Journal of Technology Management International Perspectives on Sexual and Re- productive Health Internet Research: Electronic Networking Applica- tions and Policy IOL Technology IRIN

ISS Monograph Series Issup Bulletin Ivey Business Quarterly

J Jet Bulletin Jotoafrika Journal of Applied Behavioral Science Journal of Business Ethics Journal of Business Research Journal of Energy in Southern Africa Journal of General Management Journal of International Management Journal of Management Development Journal of Managerial Psychology Journal of Retailing Journal of Management Studies Journal of Manufacturing Journal of Strategic Change Journal of Technology Management Journal of Transport Geography

K K@W Knowledge@Emory

L Labour Bulletin Lancet, The Leadership Leadership and Management in Engineering Leadership and Organization Development Journal Leading Edge Learning Organization, The Long Range Planning Los Angeles Times

M Mail & Guardian Online Management Review Manufacturing Engineering McKinsey Quarterly Newsletter, The Mining Engineering Mining Weekly

Mining World MIS Quarterly Monitor MRA Research for Action Municipal Engineer

N Natural Resources and Development Natural Resources Forum Nature New Ground New Scientist

New York Times News 24

Newsweek News & Views

O Observer Occasional Paper OECD Observer OECD publications Old Mutual Monitor On the Horizon – The Strategic Planning Resource for Education Professionals Optima Options Organic Consumers Association Organizational Dynamics Organization Science Our living world

P People & the Planet Pew Forum Planet Ark

Politikon Polity.org.za

Population Bulletin Population Bulletin of the United Nations Population Newsletter Population and Development Review Population Data Sheet Population Reference Bureau Population Reports Population Research and Policy Review Population Today

44

Prism Produktiwiteit SA/Productivity SA Professional Management Review

Q Quarterly Supplement to Distribution Centre Management

R RedOrbit News Renewable Energy World Research Communique Research & Developments Research-Technology Management

Resources Resources Policy Reuters AlertNet ReVision

S SA Analysis & Advice SA Journal of Business Management SA Labour Bulletin SA Mining SA Water Bulletin SA Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin Sairr.org SAM Advanced Management Journal Sanlam Ekonomiese Oorsig Sci/Tech Science and Development Network

Science News Scientia Militaria Scientific American

Slate Magazine Sloan Management Review South Africa Good News South African Analysis & Advice South African Journal of Business Management South African Journal of Economics South African Journal of International Affairs South African Journal of Science South African Labour Bulletin Stanford Business Statistics South Africa Strategic Change Strategic Direction Strategic Management Journal

Strategic Review for Southern Africa Strategy and Leadership Stratfor Studies in Economics and Econometrics (SEE) Sun & Wind Energy Sustainable development System Dynamics Review Systems Practice Systems Research and Behavioral Science

T Technological Forecasting & Social Change Technology in Society Technology Review Technovation Telegraph.co.uk Times Traffic Engineering & Control TransAct Transformation

U United States Population Data Sheet University World News Urban Health and Development Bulletin Urbanisation & Health Newsletter USAToday.com

V Vlerick Reflect

W Warmer Bulletin Washington Post Water Wheel, The

Work in Progress World Development Report World Environment News World Future Review World of Work World Population Data Sheet World Press Review World Resources Worldwatch Institute www.cepmagazine.org

Y Yahoo News

Artikels uit publikasies in vetdruk verskyn in hierdie uitgawe Articles from publications in bold appear in this edition.

Institute for Futures Research Associates

Adcock-Ingram Ltd

AECI Ltd

Afgri

AgriSETA

Alexander Forbes

Amalgamated Beverage Industries

Ampath Trust

Anglo American plc

Anglo American Platinum Corporation Ltd

Anglo Coal Division

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd

ATKV

Aveng (Africa) Ltd

BAE Systems

Bankseta

Barloworld SA (Pty) Ltd

BHP Billiton SA Ltd

Blue IQ Investment Holdings

Blue Label Distribution (Pty) Ltd

British American Tobacco SA (Pty) Ltd

Business Connexion (Pty) Ltd

Central Policy Unit

City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality

City Power Johannesburg (Pty) Ltd

Computershare Investor Services (Pty) Ltd

Construction Industry Development Board

Credit Guarantee

CSIR

Defy Appliances (Pty) Ltd

Deloitte

Dept of Agricultural Economics

Dept of Communication

Dept of Defence

Dept of Environmental Affairs

Dept of Public Works

Dept of Rural Development and Land Reform

Dept of Science and Technology

Dept of Social Development

Dept of Tourism

Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA)

Dimension Data Holdings (DIDATA)

Distell Group Ltd

Dole South Africa (Pty) Ltd

DRA Mineral Projects (Pty) Ltd

DRDGold Ltd

Eastern Cape Development Corporation

Engen Petroleum Ltd

Ernst & Young Services (Pty) Ltd

Eskom

EU Delegation to the Rep of South Africa

EVRAZ Highveld Steel & Vanadium

Exxaro Resources Ltd

Fiat Group Automobiles SA (Pty) Ltd

Financial Services Board

Freeworld Coatings Global (Pty) Ltd

Fry’s Metals – A Division of Zimco Group

German International Corporation (GIZ)

Gijima Holdings

Gold Fields Ltd

Government Employees Pension Fund

Grindrod Management Services (Pty) Ltd

Growthpoint Properties Ltd

Hitachi Research Institute

Hollard Insurance

Independent Development Trust

Industrial Development Corporation

IQ Business Group (Pty) Ltd

Kimberley-Clark SA (Pty) Ltd

KPMG Incorporated

Kraft Foods South Africa (Pty) Ltd

Massmart Holdings Ltd

Medi-Clinic Ltd

MMI Holdings Centurion

National Empowerment Fund

National Energy Regulator of SA (NERSA)

National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications

National Research Foundation (NRF)

National Youth Development Agency (NYDA)

NECSA

Norilsk Nickel Africa (Pty) Ltd

Orica South Africa (Pty) Ltd

Philip Morris South Africa

Polmed

Ports Regulator of South Africa

Power Construction (Pty) Ltd

Presles (Pty) Ltd

PricewaterhouseCoopers

Rainbow Farms (Pty) Ltd

Rand Water

Raumix Aggregates

Remgro Management Services Ltd

Sanlam Ltd

Sappi Ltd

SARS Business Intelligence Unit

Sasol Ltd

Sita (Pty) Ltd

South African National Roads Agency Ltd

South Africa Post Office Ltd

Southern Sun Hotels (Pty) Ltd

SSI Engineers & Environmental Consultants

(Pty) Ltd

Standard Bank of SA Ltd (Strategic Marketing)

Standard Bank of SA Ltd (Strategic Issues)

Sun International Management Ltd

Telkom SA Ltd

Tiger Management Services

Total SA (Pty) Ltd

Toyota SA Motors (Pty) Ltd

Trade & Investment KwaZulu-Natal

Transnet Freight Rail

Umgeni Water

Virgin Active

Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd

Western Cape Provincial Treasury

Woolworths (Pty) Ltd

WSP Group

Zurich Insurance Co SA Ltd

The Institute for Futures Research gratefully acknowledges the support of its Associates who made this publication possible.

A selection of commissioned research by the

Institute for Futures Research

Education & Technology Trends, a monthly environmental scan on technology and education pre-pared for the Shuttleworth Foundation (2007-2008).

Trends that have a bearing on the school education sector in SA. Confidential report to Educor (2005).

Vision 2010 Project: Demographic and socio-economic analysis. Prepared for Finmark (2002).

South African country study on climate change – Mitigating options project: The Integrated report. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2002).

Review of the long-term urban demand for water in the Cape Town-Saldanha supply area. Report prepared for the dept of water affairs and forestry (1999).

Winescan. Commissioned by the Winetech Vision 2020 project (1999).

Scoping socio-economic trends in South Africa: A technological perspective. Project for the National Research & Technology Audit (NRTA) (1996).

Agrifutura – a rational basis for long-term strategic planning and policy formation for agriculture and agricultural related organisations in SA and Southern Africa. A joint project between the IFR, the facul-ty of agriculture at Stellenbosch University and the dept of agriculture, Western Cape (1993-1995).

Environmental scanning and scenario development for long-term energy planning in SA. Project for the Chief directorate: Energy department of mineral and energy affairs (1986-2001).

A monograph of the South African energy sector: A contribution to the African Energy Programme. Report to the African Development Bank (1993).

Regional employment statistics for SA. Report to the Development Bank of Southern Africa (1992).

Future strategic directions for Anglovaal Group. Report to Anglovaal Ltd (1992).

Planning notebook for planning scenarios. Report to Telkom (1992).

For information about commissioned research please contact Prof André Roux Director Institute for Futures Research Tel 021 918 4147 andre@ifr.sun.ac.za

INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES RESEARCH PERSONNEL DIRECTOR Prof A Roux DEPUTY DIRECTOR RESEARCH PERSONNEL Associate Professor Prof BB Haldenwang Part-time Research Associate Mr A SIthole Part-time Research Associate/Consultant Prof B Leonard Part-time Senior Research Associate/Consultant Mr M Butler Part-time Senior Research Associate/Consultant Ms T Hichert ADMINISTRATIVE PERSONNEL Secretary to Prof Roux Ms M Olwage Public Relations & Conference Coordinator Ms L Ferreira Secretary Ms K Theron Desk Top Publishing Ms A du Plessis

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE Prof E vd M Smit (Chairman) Prof JU de Villiers Prof BW Smit Prof IJ Lambrechts Prof J Powell Prof E Schwella Prof PH Spies Prof A Roux Mr H Oliver