Scenarios - approaches for exploring urban futures

Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015

MIIR

Scenarios and Urban Futures

Ian Miles Professor of Technological Innovation & Social Change

Centre for Service Research & MIoIR

Manchester Business School


MIIR Working Definition of Scenario

• Systematic, explicit account of possible future (of some object of attention).

• May emphasise more or less the Future State or the Future History that results in this.

• Scenarios differentiated from Profiles and Vignettes.

Discussed in various locations, e.g. R Phaal and I Miles, 2009, Practice on Roadmapping, Prague, Technology Center of the Academy of Sciences ASCR, for UNIDO; ISBN 978-80-252-0109-1 online most recently athttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/235217859_Practice_on_Roadmapping/file/9fcfd5107a3e69a63a.pdf?ev=pub_ext_doc_dl&docViewer=true


MIIR What do we want scenarios for?

Policy insight: Explore possibilities, assumptions, alternatives that should be considered when strategies are developedKnowledge development: Sharing our own models of the issues and integrating at least some elements of these – Process benefits of scenario building as structuring conversations, dialogues.Research tool: Developing a tool for interviews and subsequent examination of specific topics, regions, sectorsPresentation: Developing frameworks for communication and presentation of the study results


MIIR Scenarios about what?

About some “object of focus”- OOF – a domain or system that we wish to study (usually in order to influence or steer) – like a city.

Often the OOF – its boundaries, its key features - is is poorly defined at the outset, and may not even be very meaningfully understood as a system: so some new drawing of boundaries of study may be helpful.

Scenario processes help build and share models of the system, its dynamic processes, and possible evolution.


MIIR Developing Scenarios

“Genius” methods; informal (SF) and formal (interviews)

Expert Groups

Surveys: viewpoints in population (can be clustered)

Models: shifting model parameters, or assumptions about relationships

Gaming

Scenario Workshops


MIIRThree Broad Methodsin Scenario Analysis

Most common for Multiple Scenario Analysis:

Departure: asking What if? - Exploratory, Outward, Driver or Event –based

Destination: asking How Come? - Normative, Inward, Profile or Archetype – based

Single Scenario Analysis:

Desire: asking What and How? - Normative, Aspirational, Success

Departures

Destinations

Destination


MIIR Departures

What if these forces continue to operate? this or that uncertain event occurs in the future?

Typically use STEEPV or similar; identify critically important drivers, and examine consequences of (a) continued operation of relatively predictable drivers (b) alternative outcomes for less predictable drivers.

Results in 2*2 matrix

Other approaches possible (e.g. scenarios per driver)

Develop Scenarios: storylines, how drivers operate and evolve, what outcome looks like.

Departures


MIIR GM multiple scenarios

Public / community &

ecological values

Global / macro & top-down dynamic

Regional / local & bottom up dynamic

Private enterprise /

economic values

Inspired by Foresight scenarios – conveniently described in F Berkhout and J Hertin, 2002, "Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning Tool", GMI newsletter at http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/pdfs/gmi37ber.pdf

UK Future of Cities Working Paper 16: ‘Future of the Urban Environment’ (Joe Ravetz 2014).


MIIR Comparative Appraisal ‘GLOBAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘LOCAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘GLOBAL COMMUNITY’ ‘LOCAL COMMUNITY’

Greater Manchester issues

Privatized government: Airport axis grows rapidly to global hub. High growth, inequality increases.

Breakup of AGMA etc: local govt as charity fund-raiser. Medium growth, inequality increases.

Centralized govt (UK, EU & global): GM is centre of ‘Northern Arc’. Medium growth, inequality is reduced

Decentralisation all around: new communities & lifestyles in rural areas. Low growth / high QOL, inequality levels.

Social, community Fragmented society, growing tensions: High population growth

Privatized society, retro social models:Medium pop. growth

Managed society: aims for equality & integration: Low pop. growth

Enclave society: aims for local self-determination: Medium pop. growth

Technology, infrastructure

global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation

local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable

global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation

local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable

Economic, employment Private firms, global labour market: High economic growth >3%

Private firms, local labour market: Medium growth (2%)

Social enterprise, global activities: Medium growth (2%)

Social enterprise, local activities: Low economic growth <1%

Environment, resources ESS degradation & pollution: Rapid climate change

exploitation & privatisation of ESS: Rapid climate change

conservation of ESS & public access: moderate climate change

Conservation of ESS with privatisation: moderate climate change

Policy, governance, institutions

Corporate-driven governance: at global level

Corporate driven governance: at local level

Public & civil governance at global level

Public & civil governance at local level

Cultural, ethical Material growth, winner-takes-all globalized culture

Material growth, winner-takes-all local autonomy

Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship

Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship

Urban / spatial development

Car-based urban sprawl, with sealed buildings: Counter-urbanisation

Localized rural development with low-tech buildings: sprawl and sub-urbanisation

Intensive large scale urban form with sealed buildings: Re-urbanisation

Intensive small scale urban form, with low-tech eco-buildings: De-centralisation.

UK system of cities London / SE continues to grow & dominate

Breakup of UK and break-away from EU

balanced development of UK regions & DAs

Local-regional agenda, with out-migration from London

Pressures & vulnerabilities in urban system

Airports & other hubs are over-used with major pollution, urban heat island etc

growing air & water pollution pressure from deregulation & privatisation

Large compact cities generate pressure & vulnerability of infrastructure

Pressures locally contained in enclaves

Gaps & opportunities in the urban system

Derelict & under-used land/ resources widespread, due to sprawl & pollution.

Derelict & under-used land/ resources, from deregulation & market gaps

Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to planning gaps

Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to social fragmentation


MIIR Destinations

How different futures be realised?Typically begin with analysis of critically important drivers,

and examine how far these are relatively predictable and unpredictable; then set out a rough description of several future states –profiles.Destinations can be differentiated according to key

structural parameters – examine which elements of the system are influenced by drivers, or are of major concern.IAF approach: Three Scenario Profiles:

Alpha - α - “More than expected” (“Better”, “Faster”… etc)Beta - β - “Less than expected” (“Worse”, “Slower”… etc)

Gamma - γ - “Different than expected” (may prompt: radical difference)

The task is to develop a plausible scenario – not utopian, not dependent on wild cards or very unlikely events.

DestinationsDestinations

DestinationsDestinations


MIIR Success Scenarios

A specific type of destination-based scenario.Here we typically build just one scenario.It has some similarity to the “better than expected” scenario in the archetype approach, but does not rely on external drivers working out in favourable directions.It is more of a stretch target - what desirable future could be achieved in this domain?Often this analysis proceeds after some multiple scenario analysis.Requires analysis of current state of affairs which we are seeking to change

What is success?

What actions promote it?


MIIR GM2040+ Workshop

Economy, employment, innovation

Environment, climate and energy

Social and cultural issues

Built environment

Governance, policy and democracy

STEEPV analysis: 21 drivers

Manchester Policy documents

Four scenarios

WORKSHOP: Plenaries and 54 Break Out Groups (Ambition Areas)

• Coverage• Main drivers

• Where we are• What would be success?

(where we could be if we try)

• What actions are needed


MIIRE.g. BrOG on Environment,

climate and energyCoverage/ main issues:Sustainable lifestyle/community

Low carbon mobility/transport systems (location of things)

Energy – grid generation/optimising and/or reducing gas energy demand

Low carbon economy: skills & jobs

Climate change – GM unique specificities (opportunities & risks)

Green spaces/outdoor infrastructures

Top drivers: Inequality

Education and skills


MIIR Each BrOG

Where are we now/what would be success (in terms of these main issues)?

How is GM currently perceived by informed observers?

How could GM be perceived in 2040, if sufficient effort is made?

Develop Exemplaries – concrete, achievable, examples

World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%

World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%


MIIR

Exemplaries – Group 3 – Environment & EnergySustainable lifestyle

There should be no people in fuel povertyEveryone knows 5 other people on their street (this was a comment about social isolation and a concern to try and address that)Everyone should know how to contact/influence their local councillor95% skilled 18+ target

Low carbon Remove car parks for employers.No car to work from within GMPeople should not be dying on our roadsCycle routes that are safe for kids to bike to schoolZero carbon aviation fuel programmeZero emission transport system in GM

Energy grid No gas use anymore we need it for power. Zero heat gas energy2 way IOT grip 80% penetration10 Twh local generation

Low carbon economy skills/jobs

Low carbon skills embedded in schools with challenge and competitions to de-carbonise GMTo be biggest LCEGS sector in UKX% GM companies signed up to and supporting supply chains on circular (type) economy

Circular economy

Waste free design and business network for sharing open-innovation/resourcesDematerialisation local goods purchase rank

Climate change GM unique specificities

GM planning policies and exemplar buildings that are for GM adaptationEveryone knows how climate and weather can affect them and their family/business and has plans to deal with itMinimum Heat/float incidentsPlanned support for extinct locations

Green spaces Everyone should see a flash of the living biosphere outside their window. Green space increase by 33%X km per green space\ resident park space


MIIR Success Scenario Analysis

Bring together groups to discuss perceptions, ambitions.Seek to achieve more detailed definition of nature of success, reconcile possible contradictions.(when time permits, also examine:

How might we know if this scenario is emerging? What would be leading indicators?What should we be monitoring?)

Carousel or other approach to generate suggestions for actions (non-voluntaristic) required from different stakeholders.Discussion/prioritisation of actions.


MIIR Stakeholders/ActionsGovernment

NationalAGMA/regionalOther

Public Services

Third Sector

Communities

Infrastructure and Services:UtilitiesMedia and CommunicationsHousing and Construction

Private SectorLocal/SMEsFinancial institutionsTransnational firms

Knowledge & SkillsPrimary & secondaryVocationalHEIs

Carousel:Improved actions/ New actions/ Dropped actions


MIIR Overall Outcomes

Limited by time pressure, limited scope of participation, growing preoccupation with Devo Manc...Several comments as to value of sharing knowledge with and learning from other policy groups with long-term focusRecognition of numerous uncertainties, of importance of issues like inequalityAffirmation of Manchester progress and potential, hope for further development and dissemination of work.


MIIR

End of Presentation