- 1. Student scenarios on the Futures of Philippine HEIsStudent
Scenario Workshop UP Manila, Laoag City Shermon Cruz; Risa Jopson
Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF)
2. Outline Scenario basics (7-10 mins) Sample scenarios /
studies (5-7mins) Scenario workshop (FGD) / facilitation (40 mins)
Presentation/Discussion (10 mins) Reflections (10 mins) 3. The long
term orientation dimension is closely related to the teachings of
Confucius and can be interpreted as dealing with societys search
for virtue, the extent to which a society shows a pragmatic
future-oriented perspective rather than a conventional historical
short-term point of view.The Philippines scored 19, making it a
short term orientation culture. China 118. Societies with a
short-term orientation generally exhibit great respect for
traditions, a relatively small propensity to save, strong social
pressure to keep up with the Joneses, impatience for achieving
quick results (Geert Hoffstede, 2011) 4. Where are we (Pinoys!) on
Long-Term Thinking? One of the lowest in the world in terms of
long-term thinking and one of the highest in short-term thinking
China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore are the highest in
Long-Term Orientation (Hoffstede, 2011) 5. Matsing and Pagong 6.
images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they
act. 7. scenarios images, stories, narratives of alternative
possible futures hypothetical sequence of events constructed for
the purpose of focusing attention on causal events and decision
points desription of possible futures that reflect different
perspectives on the past, present and future (Schwartz) 8.
Scenarios / depictions of the future are not predictions; its
purpose is to guide the exploration of possible futures
statesdisturb the present 9. Stories with plausible cause and
effect links that connect a future condition with the present.
Scenarios illustrates key decision, events, consequences throughout
the narrative. (Glenn, 2012) 10. Similar with writing a movie
script 11. To be effective, scenarios should be written in the form
of absorbing and convincing stories that describe a broad range of
alternative futures. 12. Some of the most interesting scenarios
combine elements of trends, opinion surveys, futures triangles,
signals, history, culture, ideas and preferences, etc. 13.
Manuscripts of the future, a meta-technique that allows the
integration of data, imagination, creativity, trends, diverse
theoretical approaches and methods 14. Plausible (a rational route
from here to there that make causal processes and decisions
explicit)Internally consistent (alternative scenarios should
address similar issues so that they can be comparedSufficiently
interesting and exciting to make the future Glenn, 2012real enough
to elicit strategic responses. 15. Business as usual this is the
scenario that narrates the consequence and impact of continuing
current trends. Business as usual scenario spotlights the status
quo re-occurring in the future 16. Worst case this is the scenario
where the business as usual or current trends dramatically worsens.
It narrates the worst possible environment or outcome out of the
several possibilities in planning or simulation. It spotlights the
dangers or worst case scenario events. Worst case scenario is a
situation in which the most unfavourable conditions prevail or
where everything that can go wrong has gone wrong in the future 17.
Best case this is the scenario where the most optimum outcome of an
event are considered. Best case scenario is a projection of that
future that imagines only the best possible circumstances. It
spotlights the best possible future. It is the best possible real
world that you can ever get 18. Outlier is an event that is
numerically distant from other events and appears to be different
from other events (best, worst, business as usual). Outlier
spotlights the emerging and weak signals, anomalous possibilities
or out of the radar events. Outliers are the unplanned and out
control situations that could happen in the future. These are the
unsupervised scenarios 19. Some rules Focal issue: Futures of Phil
HEIs (Student perspective) Date 2040 Key drivers/secondary drivers
of change social, tech, economic, environment, political, values
(STEEPV) rank them according to importance and uncertainty Scenario
logics (futures triangle pushes, pulls, weights, emerging issues,
weak signals, drivers of change) Fill out the scenarios
Images/title for each scenario Life of a Filipino student in the
year 2040 (?) 20. Workshop na! 21. Presentation na! 22. Tapos!
